LAST EDITED ON 03-27-15 AT 07:35 PM (EST)

Just to keep from having fifty one-per-candidate threads as each one declares. If we stop at fifty people running. The touring car is rapidly looking like more of a bus, and I won't be surprised if we get to convoy. With nearly every vehicle in it competing to see which can drive further to the right.

So far, we have:

Confirmed:

Cruz

"Investigating their prospects": have committees or keep dropping hints

Bachmann
Carson
Huckabee
Graham
Jindal
Paul
Palin
Perry
Santorum
Walker

Faked or faking out

Gohmert (suggested, but backed off afterwards)
Trump (he'll really do it this time! seriously! say, isn't that a wolf?)

Wanted by some of the base, but currently uninvolved

Kasich

Doesn't wanna

Romney

(And yes, I know I've probably left some people out. There's just so many...)

We can probably cross some people off immediately. Donald will back out the instant anyone goes for his financial papers: all he ever wants is attention and any possible side dose of grift. Ben is demonstrating a talent for self-burial normally only found in trap-door spiders. Sarah will say anything to keep the money coming, but I doubt she'll commit. Lindsay may be sincere, but I think most of the GOP base is equally devoted to not voting for him.

Next tier up... Ted has no interest in getting the moderate Republican vote: his percentage should stay consistent, and that means no moving through the ranks. (There's an argument to be made that he's running for VP. I don't think he sees it that way.) He and Santorum will battle to the death over the extremist segment, and neither can win.

Michele will toss a few thunderbolts and then blow over.

Bobby's out. It may take a while and I can see him hanging on until Super Tuesday. He may even get a VP nod. But in the current GOP... he's in trouble.

Mike couldn't do it before and he won't do it again.

This takes us to what I see as the more serious contenders.

Scott... the scandals will probably be turned into 'See? No one can take me down!' Perry has probably learned how to count agencies by now. And Rand... is desperately swerving into the right lane at top speed, trying not to sideswipe himself along the way. In the longshot scenario, all three could potentially reach the convention without a definitive majority, and then... well, we haven't had vote-brokering in a while, have we? Fun!

And then we have John. I think we can call John the elephant in the room. No one wants to talk about him, but look at all that space they're making...

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The big voting issue as I see it:

They need a few Democrats and most of the independents. Or they need to keep them from showing up at all.

The old Big Tent is a lot smaller than it used to be, and there's barbed wire wrapped around the edges. No surprise, and it's the same way on the other side of the aisle. Most of government has turned into a feather-fluffing match of 'I must be the more patriotic person here, because I'll never work with anyone who isn't just like me'. With the 'like me' definition getting narrower by the minute. The aisle is the line of death: even try to cross it and goodbye. In such a scenario, it comes down to how many of each party's voters show up at all, because no one's going to change their minds. Ever.

So... are there more national voters on the left, or the right?

It's probably left. Slightly. Taken overall. But the electoral college does what it does, and you can't gerrymander states.

So what the GOP may need is someone who can take the barbed wire off. A candidate who can welcome disillusioned Democrats (who do exist) and tell the independents that moderates will not be shut out. There are social liberals who would love some fiscal conservatism -- but the instant you declare yourself as a social liberal to the GOP, you're gone. And it's hard to feel included with those who keep shouting you down.

Charisma, a friendly smile, and a sincere 'we'll find a place for you. Somewhere which isn't a locked basement'. Make people switch.

I thought Rand Paul might have been the best shot at that. Not great odds -- but a chance.

Of course, then he started to run.