LAST EDITED ON 04-24-03 AT 06:21 PM (EST)

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Wow, has it only been two weeks since we last did this??? Well, nothing much has changed since the day after Episode 9 -- a Rob or ALex booting seemed likely then and it still seems likely now. The "Fab Four" get broken up, it's just a matter of who defects. Our money's on ROB "Just Because You're Paranoid" Doesn't Mean They Aren't After You" CESTERNINO to try and defect and hope to do better than what would seem to be his current 4th place in a 4 person alliance. Does he succeed and take out Alex instead? Or does he go down in flames as thirty days of lies and scheming finally catch up with him? My monopoly money is on the former, although the later is also a possibility, therefore ALEX (ANDER) BELL is our official bootee pick with ROB CESTERNINO as the alternate.

In challenges action... ah, who knows... ya, there are videos from home, etc. The reward challenge consensus seems to be that everyone wins... something. The popular immunity winner pick seems to be Matthew -- if for no other reason than because folks feel "MAtt needs it the most" and a Matt IC win would provide the spark to upset the Fab Four's long-since-public bootee plans. Personally, I'm not so sure about the later -- I think that idea overlooks the "The Rob Show" factor. Rob seems to know what's going on in this game, and regardless of whether or not Matthew wins immunity, it is certainly possible to see Rob, having just watched his ally Deanna just snuffed out of the game, scramble for a backup plan that will advance him further than 4th in a 4 person alliance. ...and keeping Matthew around is the key to such a plan. That said, don't underestimate Rob's paranoia (see above) -- the best way to hedge his plan is to ensure that even if it backfires he can't be booted this week. Of course, the one thing we've seen so far is that while his game play has been strong, his challenge performance has been no match for the other challenge players. Therefore, while no one appears to have any solid justification for an immunity victory, Matt has a little more than most, so he's as good an immunity challenge pick as anyone.

-SB

EDITED to fix bootee/alt bootee flip/flop error (although if you read the context of "former," or the entire second paragraph, you probably already knew that )