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"Thinking on why Deena goes next"
mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-09-03, 01:12 AM (EST)
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"Thinking on why Deena goes next" |
I think a combination of spoilers point to a Deena boot.Matt, Jenna, Butch, & Christy make the final 4 per CO spoiler, backed up by the BoDog sports book as shown here: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3723.shtml#17 This means Deena, Heidi, Rob, or Alex must go this week. We also have a spoiler that tells us Deena likes everyone except Rob. It’s been argued that based on this, we can conclude (based on Rob/Deena’s current alliance) that Rob eventually betrays Deena. This would indicate Rob lasts longer than Deena, so Rob can’t go this week. This leaves Deena, Heidi or Alex getting the ax this week. We also have Heidi saying ‘if you thought E7 (naked immunity) was something, just wait till E9. ‘ http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3464.shtml We also have CO spoiler saying a tribe member went topless to guarantee that player X wasn’t voted out (and that this strategy worked). These two spoilers indicate to me that Jenna and or Heidi get naked this episode to avoid the ax, and that both are safe in episode 9. This leaves Deena or Alex to get the ax. So, the question is Deena or Alex? Since we have 1) Heidi indicating there will be nudity E9 2) CO telling us nudity saves a tribe member 3) Rob lusting after “Twigs & Sticks” 4) Deena feeling betrayed by Rob This is perfect timing for Rob to start thinking below the waist, resulting in a Deena boot this week.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-09-03, 10:42 PM (EST)
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4. "Why would Rob turn on Deena?" |
I can think of 2 possible reasons Rob might turn on Deena now.Possibility 1: JP made a comment early on that Christy can read lips MUCH better than she lets on. I'll speculate Christy could "read" a particularly hurtful conversation between the other girls. We've seen her get upset before when she felt the other girls left her out. If she gets her feelings her, she could swing to an alliance with the guys. Rob then may decide it's better to take his chances with Matt, Alex, Butch, Christy (thinking he can ride Matt & Alex to the final 3), rather than sticking with Heidi, Jenna, Deena risking a 4-4 TC. Possibility 2: JP pointed out at the last TC, that the rope cutting challenge shaped up Girls vs Boys. When he mentioned this Rob looked like a light bulb went off over his head. He now has to know that if they vote another guy off, the girls will be able to pick the guys off one at a time. Rob might not finish better than 5th. He may decide, If it looks like the girls are going to stick together, it would be better to vote with the guys, forcing a 4-4 tie at TC. He then runs a 14% chance of getting the "purple rock if they use it, and a 50-50 chance of the guys getting the upper hand on the girls. I'll admit, they aren't GREAT ODDS, but Rob is there TO WIN. I think faced with the math of it, Rob would roll the dice and stick with the guys again thinking he can ride Matt & Alex to the final 3. I don't mean to predict that either of these WILL happen, just that I can rationalize WHY Rob WOULD turn on Deena. Since I think the spoilers point to a Deena boot, while an Alex boot depends on editing, I'll vote for Deena's departure unless I CAN'T rationalize it. But as I've attempted to show here, I think a rational arguments for why Rob would turn on Deena can be made.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-09-03, 11:00 PM (EST)
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5. "Why Deena instead of Alex?" |
I don't have any real reasons why Alex DOESN'T GO, but the Reasons for Alex to get the boot just seem weaker to me.The reasons listed for Alex getting the Boot seem to be: 1) He's a challenge threat. 2) His story arc (Shawna's toy) are done. When I balance the reasons to vote for Alex to go vs reasons for Deena to go, I'd judge an Alex boot as 30%, Deena's 70%. So I came down on the Side of Deena going. I would hope someone who feets strongly that Alex goes next would post a similar thread for him, listing the reasons. As a side comment, I think it's easier to get to a CO final 4 If the guys get the upper hand this week, than if the girls survive intact. They guys I think, have shown more of a willingness to not vote along strait gender lines. So the guys getting the upper hand this week makes it easier to get to a 2 guy 2 girl final 4.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-09-03, 11:53 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Why Deena instead of Alex?" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-10-03 AT 00:00 AM (EST)I don't think Deena going next is any slam dunk, but I think she's the best bet and will vote her way when I get to the vote thread. Why? Well, though I am pretty skeptical of some of the spoilers, given that past spoilers haven't always been right and there have already been questions about some of these, there are so many of them that you have to give them some weight. Secondly, let's look at the logic. Rob will probably be the prime mover in picking the next bootee, so we can look at all the others from his position. He's not likely to target Heidi or Jenna till he has to, because he still wants that threesome, plus if he targets one he risks pizzing off the other. He isn't likely to target Matt or Alex, since that will reveal to Matt how much of a liar he is, which Rob doesn't want to do till he has to for jury-vote reasons. And we have the final 2 Matt vs. Jenna spoiler, which of all the spoilers is most convincing to me, so I'm sure they don't go. So we have left Butch, Christy and Deena. Nobody wants to boot Christy till they have to, considering her deafness and the PC angle related to that. Plus, ahe doesn't seem like the number one threat with 4 guys plus Deena still left. So she'll probably skate this time. Butch just doesn't seem like much of a threat, and isn't actively maneuvering to vote people off, so I think that may save his bacon for a few more shows. That brings us to Deena. Let's face some facts here. Deena is the one person other than Rob who is actively maneuvering to vote out who she wants out and to control the game. Strike one. If she doesn't make the final, she's gonna be POed at Rob anyway, so he has little reason to keep her around. Strike two. And as the strongest woman both mentally and physically, she is a MAJOR immunity threat. Strike three. I know this isn't the most convincing case in the world, and I also know that a Deena IC win would spike the whole thing, in which case I think Rob will target Butch or Christy but will fail in either case, probably getting the boot himself. But without much concrete evidence to go on, the circumstantial evidence supplied by the spoilers, caps and previous episodes makes Deena the safest bet to go. Edited to fix a spelling goof.
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