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"Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited"
Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-08-03, 05:17 AM (EST)
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"Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
I'm sorry kids, but I still can find NO LOGICAL way that Chillone's F4 and Milshaky's (Heidi sixth place) spoilers work in tandem. Not to say that the ILLOGICAL can't happen. It's just that Survivor precedent CLEARLY states that this won't happen.For both of these spoilers to work, here's our boot list: Chillone F4 -- Jenna, Built man (most likely Matthew), Butch, Christy 5th place ???? Probably Rob, because he needs to lose the most weight based on his pics. 6th place -- Heidi according to Milkshaky 7th place Deena or Alex 8th place Deena or Alex -------------------------------------------------- Currently we have an alliance of 5 -- Heidi, Jenna, Deena, Alex and Rob THE BIG QUESTION: Why on earth would ANY of them leave that alliance? They have a free ticket to the Final 5? The only reasons I can find are: A) Alex and/or Rob think that they are at the tail end of the alliance and the women want to take out Matthew this next episode. This forces Rob/Alex to use Matthew and Butch to build a 4-on-4 tie. WHY (A) WON'T HAPPEN: Sorry, but Rob doesn't like Alex. He doesn't like Matt. He has shown no urges to leave his alliance. Dave is gone and is not a threat. It's too risky a move for someone guaranteed in the final five. They can get Butch's vote, but probably not Christy. Alex has shown no distaste for his alliance and he likes Jenna/Heidi. Rob/Alex isn't as likely a tandem. Rob/Alex/Heidi/Jenna were shown as extremely close in the Survivor Insider videos. Why break up that chemistry? B) The women target Alex, and Rob goes along with it. Alex is booted.
WHY (B) WON'T HAPPEN: Once again, there is no reason for the women to boot Alex and potentially screw things up. Deena/Heidi/Jenna have little reason to boot Alex. They like Alex. Rob is the one that dislikes him. Alex is supposedely a challenge threat, but he is pretty thin. Plus, he's a nice guy. Why not boot boring Butch and antisocial Christy? Think Occam's razor -- the simplest path/choice is usually the right one. There have been NUMEROUS 4-5 person alliances, and the ONLY time they risked voting off one of their own was in Survivor II when Tina/Keith ditched Jerri and Amber. S1 Tagi 4 goes all the way S3 Boran 4 goes all the way S4 Christian 5 goes all the way S5 Chuay Gahn goes all the way C) Jenna and Heidi screw over Deena and use Rob and Alex to boot her. WHY (C) WON'T HAPPEN: Please! Anyone who thinks Deena is going, is crazy. Unless Deena does something REALLY STUPID, and it would be the biggest blunder is Survivor history, she is guaranteed a F5 and most likely a F3 or F2 spot. Why on earth would Jenna/Heidi ditch their loyal, loyal alliance member? Christy is a wild card. Butch is a wild card. Deena is a solid vote. WHAT IF WE TOOK OUT CHILLONE? We would have Butch and Christy going next, them Heidi going sixth per Milkshaky, with a F5 of Deena, Jenna, Matt, Rob and Alex. (Matt wins immunity, forcing Heidi out). MAKES PERFECT LOGICAL SURVIVOR SENSE! Precedent dictates this is the most likely outcome. CONCLUSION: Out of the choices above, only Matt is a slim possibility. Why mess up a F5 push NOW? Christy, Butch and Heidi as the next three boots sounds right. BUT ... CHILLONE MUST BE RIGHT! The BUTCH F4 SPOILER MUST BE RIGHT! So, I'll just shut up and watch Alex/Deena be booted this week.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 07:05 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Ahhhhh... Ignorance is bliss, isn't it? I disagree with one of the statements. I think that Rob doesn't hate Alex. In fact, Alex is supposedly in Rob's Final 5. The only time that Rob had expressed unhappiness with Alex was when Alex was with Shawna. He said that he didn't want an alliance partner who wasn't interested in the game. So Rob sent Shawna packing, and got his alliance member in the game. What would be the problem with B? They could play it MEN vs WOMEN again. Ditch Alex, and then the women have a 4-3 advantage. Another triumph for women's lib! What we need is a shakeup, which will probably happen, if you saw the previews. Alex and Deena get into a skirmish about who's the real leader. Do you know what happens when there are two leaders? One goes down. And sometimes the stronger threat is the one that goes. In Honor of Summary Writers... 3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI 4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki 5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir 6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey 7. "Christy wins the Jan Gentry “Aim High” Award" -Fester
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 03:52 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
I have a question for you.What happened to the Rotu 4 during Marquesas? The had the coconut chopping challenge, revealed their boot order, and was promptly sent packing. Didn't we just have a similar challenge? You know, the one that the GIRLS basically dominated? What my main problem is that THIS WEEK'S preview DOES WORK! The audience isn't stupid. I've asked people around me who know NOTHING about Spoiling who's going to go this week. Three answers of "Butch." The previews don't necessarily sway the public's opinion. In the public's point of view, Butch (like Dave) is screwed. They made that clear last week. Sometimes we spoilers get a little caught up that MB is giving the previews ONLY to the spoiling community. This is complete blasphemy!!! Sure, he tries to mislead the audience, but his main point is to keep us watching! By promising a scuffle, he'll get people interested in what will happen. (And believe me, MB knows that if we don't get an argument, some of the audience will be disappointed) In Honor of Summary Writers... 3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI 4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki 5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir 6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey 7. "Christy wins the Jan Gentry “Aim High” Award" -Fester
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 08:53 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-03 AT 08:54 AM (EST)I thought I was going to give up spoiling this season, but I'm unable to resist the need to point something out in this message. *sigh* You failed to mention two "small" things: 1) Rob betrays Deena. 2) "purple rock" After Alex goes next, then Rob convinces the Cute Girls and Matt and/or Butch to betray Deena. Deena goes. Then with six left, he (Rob) switches to Christy/Butch. C/B/R vs. H/J/M, rocks are drawn. Heidi gets the wrong one (and this, IMHO, is the only way she goes before the Final Four!!!). Then everyone eliminates the one they can't trust (that being Rob), and there you have your CO1 Final Four, and your milkshakey Heidi boot, not to mention fulfilling other spoilers of Deena hating Rob, Rob betraying Heidi, etc. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but it's a likely scenario, and certainly a possible one.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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04-08-03, 09:03 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Immunity can assist in this as well also
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-08-03, 10:41 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
>Currently we have an alliance of >5 -- Heidi, Jenna, Deena, >Alex and Rob I think the above statement might be the flaw in your logic. Why are you sure that there is an alliance of only 5. Both Matt and Christy have voted with Heidi, Jenna, Deena Alex and Rob since the merge. That would make an alliance of 7.
That is where the problem is. An alliance of 7 is too large. Especially now when we are about to vote off the last non-allaince member. Everyone has to be thinking who goes after Butch? Is it me? What do I do if I want to last more than 1 week? If you think you are the tail end of the alliance (Christy and Matt) you have be thinking what do I do to survive. If someone like Alex gets concerned that he is about to be voted put by the girls because he is strong like Dave, then you have a 4th vote to force a tie and the dreaded purple rock). My guess is Alex is the one who actually organizes a counter alliance when he starts to believe that Deena is targeting him. SOmewhat Like sean in S4.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 11:07 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Once again, there is no reason for the women to boot Alex and potentially screw things up. Deena/Heidi/Jenna have little reason to boot Alex. They like Alex. Rob is the one that dislikes him.I disagree with this. When new Jaburu was getting their post-merge plan together, Deena listed Butch as the next target after Dave and Roger. But later in the episode, Deena said, "we take out Roger, we take out Dave, and then we'll see what happens." Around the same time, she suggested to Jenna that they would need to get rid of Alex -- she didn't say exactly when -- because Rob has an alliance with Alex and they would need to ensure Rob's loyalty (to the F3 plan). I think if Matt wins IC this week -- or even if he doesn't -- Deena might very well want to get rid of Alex now. However, that would not sit well with Rob, who, although he apparently doesn't appreciate Alex thinking that Alex is in control, still has a tighter bond with Alex, I believe, than with Deena. The gender division is still ingrained in these people's heads, imo. It's a bigger driving force than anything else in the game, and the strongest alliances still fall along gender lines. Deena and Rob will wind up working against each other this week, Rob with the men and Deena with the women.
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 12:15 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Many have already commented, so why not me? I’ll choose C, however. You say "C) Jenna and Heidi screw over Deena and use Rob and Alex to boot her. WHY (C) WON'T HAPPEN: Please! Anyone who thinks Deena is going, is crazy. Unless Deena does something REALLY STUPID, and it would be the biggest blunder is Survivor history, she is guaranteed a F5 and most likely a F3 or F2 spot. Why on earth would Jenna/Heidi ditch their loyal, loyal alliance member? Christy is a wild card. Butch is a wild card. Deena is a solid vote." I heartily disagree. I think J/H are only loyal to each other. They want to be the final two, and they can’t be as long as Deena is around. Christy is a further complication; she and Deena are both stronger immunity threats than J/H and Christy appears to be far closer to Deena than anyone else. (Not to mention the fact that woe be to anyone who goes up against Christy in the F2.) So, to get to a J/H F2, Deena needs to go sometime, and sometime soon, while there are still stronger immunity threats out there. The ideal time is now. J/H align with Rob, Rob tells the men, Deena goes this week on a 6-2 vote. (They don’t tell Deena for obvious reasons, and don’t tell Christy because she would tell Deena.) Rob, J/H, get Christy to target Alex in Ep. 10. That threesome (which is the perfect threesome for Rob for one reason, for J/H for another ) thinks it’s in charge, but they way they have maneuvered show Butch, Christy, and Matt that THEY need to align. And they do. Which gets to a sticking point – Heidi in Ep. 11. Purple rock tiebreaker? Possibly, or perhaps Rob, who has increasingly been too clever for his own good, misreads his hold on B/C/M and turns on Heidi. From there it’s smooth sailing for C1. Rob in Ep. 12, then in Ep. 13 C, followed by B, and then M and J for the F2.
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-08-03, 02:46 PM (EST)
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11. "Here is the rest of the season" |
Alex and Deena get into a rift and attempt to boot the other out. Deena gets H/J, and Alex teams up with B/C/M. This leaves Rob as the swing vote. Alex thinks he has him, Deena thinks she has him. I say Rob chooses the woman (horny bastard) and it costs him. The purple rock lands in Deena's hand. Rob the traitor is the next one taken out. After him, Heidi-ho. Jenna, the only remaining member, makes a pact with Alex/Matt. Alex/Matt convince B/C to boot Alex/Matt over Jenna because they are an immunity threat. That leaves B/C/J/(A/M). J/(A/M) and B/C tie 2-2, and the purple rock falls in either B/C hands. The other leaves in the final three and we are left with Jenna and "muscular man". Jenna wins Survivor 6. I hope I am right. I thought this up in the shower. Shower = Jenna. Jenna wins survivor. Eureka!!! "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham Me and Heidi Strobel share the same birthday!!!! GO HEIDI!!!
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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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04-08-03, 05:24 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Here is the rest of the season" |
ChillOnes works with one exception. Rather than Deena going after Alex it's Heidi instead. And how do we get a Jenna, Matt, Butch and Christy final four. That is easy.Deena and Rob think they are the leaders. They start telling people who to boot off. Rob already said Alex thinks he's a leader. Viewing Alex as a possible threat to be the 'real' leader or also possibly viewing him as a challenge threat. Deena and Rob orchestrate an Alex boot. After that, they orchestrate a Heidi boot. Maybe because Deena never really liked her or maybe because she gets an injury as reported on the CBS website. Well, the other four then wise up and say unless we want Deena or Rob to win we gotta boot them. I say Deena goes than Rob. Rob is a more pleasent individual to have around camp. So there you have it your final four. After this season I will not view these websites anymore. It's like taping the Superbowl then watching it after the game is played and you already know the score. It spoiled the fun for me this season.
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-08-03, 06:58 PM (EST)
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17. "In defense of my theory" |
Rob is thinks he is so smart he is bound to do something stupid. MB has edited him as the real player of the game. The only two people who have ever won this game under this logic where Richard and Brian. The rest that have had this game "figured out" have screwed it up by doing something completely boneheaded.Here are some examples: S2: Colby taking Tina into the final. S3: Brandon, need I say more. S4: The Rotu 4 reveal their strategy in an immunity challenge and screw themselves dearly. Since Brian was just last season, I highly doubt that MB would have the same type of character win twice in a row, or he would have edited Rob differently. So, at some point he is going to blow it bigtime. Though this may not be the time (my theory is a stretch, but it was a stretch to say Christy is in the F4) we can be almost garanteed he will mess up majorly. Oh well, it's just a theory. I am picking the same person to go this week as have for a while, and that is Christy (death to chillone). "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham Me and Heidi Strobel share the same birthday!!!! GO HEIDI!!!
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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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04-08-03, 10:08 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
The main point that people miss when watching Survivor is that these people are REAL people...their emotions are REAL, they're not just characters on a television show with a script written by Burnett (if he did write the script, Dave/Ryan/Daniel would still be around). REAL people have fickle emotions, and make weird decisions sometimes.Rob - Rob is the best student of the game that we've ever seen on this show. He knows everything there is to be known. Although Burnett has edited the footage to have us believe that Rob will use his other head, Rob knows what is best for him, and when it comes down to it, he is smart enough to know that Heidi/Jenna are not interested in him outside of the game. Rob genuinely likes Deena, Butch, and Christy - we've heard him say it before. Deena - Why does everyone forget....Deena is a fan of the show...she may not be as smart as Rob, but Deena knows how the game works as well. Deena's downfall is the fact that she is a leader, and leaders are often targeted in this game. Alex - There's no doubt in my mind that Alex has watched the show and knows somewhat how the game works. He's not stupid, but he is not as adept as Rob/Deena. Alex is probably more of a leader than we see on screen, which is another reason why he could be targeted. Jenna - Jenna is the biggest secret of this game. We really don't know what she is thinking. I'm guessing that Jenna knows how this game works just as much as Deena does, we just aren't seeing it. She is friends with Heidi, but I wouldn't be shocked for her to sacrifice Heidi in order to better her own position. Jenna almost reminds me of Vee...remember, Vee was close to Sean, but it didn't shock her when Sean (Heidi) was voted out, and it didn't keep her from winning. Matthew - Matthew has not watched Survivor. Rob is telling him what is going on, but it is only wht Rob wants him to hear. However, Matthew is a very intuitive person, and has probably picked up somewhat on what is happening. Matthew will make it far simply because he is there and other people stand out more as a target than he does. Remember Keith? Remember Jan? Matthew is being dragged along for the ride. Heidi - Maybe my opinion of her is biased because I think she's a heartless *****. Anyways, Heidi has watched Survivor before, she knows what's going on. She has switched voting patterns a few times, and I think everyone (especially Christy/Butch) sees that. Roger didn't like her at all....Heidi is on the jury, which means that Roger has not had time to see Heidi since the game was over....which means Heidi did something during the time she was on the tribe with Christy/Butch that made him angry....Jeff Probst seems to dislike her strongly....Heidi probably isn't as pleasent as Probst has edited her, therefore I can forsee her being booted three weeks from now. Butch - Butch also has watched the show, he knows how things work. Butch = Paschal, in the aspect that he waits for things to happen around him before he makes his decisions. At one time, Paschal was in danger of being voted out...remember the coconut challenge? Butch may very well be the driving force that shapes how the final four is formed. Christy - Another mystery of MB's editing....we haven't seen much of her strategy. It's pretty evident that she doesn't watch a lot of Survivor. Christy seems to want to vote based on her emotions (I wanna vote for Matt), but someone is telling her who she really should vote for (either Butch or Deena). Christy has bonded with Deena since their troublesome days at Jaburu, and Christy doesn't forget how she was treated by Jenna & Heidi. SO......... Ep.9: Deena & Alex clash, Rob gets Alex (Challenge Threat) out. RECRAP: MB shows us some of Jenna's strategy, a setup for later. Ep.10: Deena gets cocky, Rob sides with Butch/Christy/Matt to get her out. Ep.11: Heidi pisses everyone off, it's time for her to go. Ep.12: Butch/Christy tell Matthew about Rob's evil ways, Matthew is angry and they boot Rob. Ep.13: Jenna is left with no other ally, so she has to trust in Matthew. By lucky happenstance, Christy gets the purple rock. Jenna wins final immunity, Butch goes next logically. Jenna & Matt, a last-minute alliance, are the final two. Jenna gets votes from Rob/Deena/Heidi, Christy/Butch/Dave vote for Matt...Alex is the swing vote, I'm guessing he votes for Jenna and she wins. Survior 5 Anti-Bootee Champ, Survivor 6 Anti-Bootee Chump
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whoami 2936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-08-03, 11:32 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Could this F2 of Matt and Jenna be a misdirection by M.B.??? He is very good at this.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-10-03, 01:04 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Matt and Jenna could still work, but the BODOG gambling website spoiler has been debunked elsewhere on this forum. The thought has recently crossed my mind that perhaps this spoiler or one or more of the other ones could be and probably ARE Burn-it plants on the boards. So I have a pretty heavy level of skepticism about ALL the spoilers. But I have a feeling that some of them will wind up being true by accident.
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-10-03, 11:11 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
Not sure why you think this has been debunked. This story ran on both the AP and UPI national wires (AP was circulating the same story that originally ran on eonline) and can be found on many online betting news sites. There's even been a non-denial denial from CBS. ("Survivor has prompted as many conspiracy theories as the X-Files.") I see no reason not to consider this valid information.
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whoami 2936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-10-03, 10:51 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Chillone F4 DOESN'T WORK revisited" |
I went to the BODOG web page and read all that was said, and I have went to almost all the other sites that were listed as having said anything about this. BODOG still has a bet on eaither male or female to win. I could not find anything about CBS saying anything about this eaither yea or nay. Remember the pic on S1? But I have seen or heard nothing to make me think this Matt & Jenna will be F2. I think it could be Butch and Christy due to everyone else cutting each others throats, and getting to cocky in there alliance and the default will fall to them.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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