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"Power Struggle Winners (and Losers)"
jcalvin22 8 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-04-03, 01:47 PM (EST)
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"Power Struggle Winners (and Losers)" |
As far as I can tell we are about to see the power struggle erupt really soon…we’ve got a couple people thinking they are in dominance in the game and whose interests are going to conflict….I guess the question isn’t who WINS control of the tribe but who LOSES…because I think that will be the person to go in EP 9….…IMO Deena has run her course and will be the next person voted off for several reasons….Matt is following Rob wherever he wants him to go and thinks this is a true alliance….Butch and Matt have a good chance of forming a “misfit alliance” as I saw it called on another thread…also we know that deena is planning to oust alex eventually because she wants rob to stay true to their agreement….when alex gets wind of this he isn’t going to be too happy with deena either…these factors could link up butch/matt/alex to vote against deena….Rob isn’t going to want to show matt his true colors yet by voting off alex (who he told matt was going to be in the final three with them) and I also think rob is smart enough to keep a guys number majority over the girls…so these 4 (R/B/M/A) could all cast a vote deena’s way….while deena has her usual crowd (H/J/C/D) voting the way she wants…(my guess is towards alex)…christy could end up being the swing vote here but I think she will vote w/ deena still….could be time for a tie breaker….. ….Alex seems like the other logical choice to get the boot this week….but like stated above, Rob casting a vote that way this week could ruin his trust w/ matt whose vote he really needs to help pick off deena down the road…also if the immunity challenge this week is a gross eating contest…my money is on alex for sure…(remember matt’s comment about blood this week?…might get grossed out easy)…also look at the face time in the last episodes….Deena = TONS OF FACE TIME……Alex = pulling a Butch (aka has disappeared)… ….to contradict myself for a moment Alex’s story line has appeared to be done for the last two weeks, but we may have a pick up one this week with the power struggle…. Anyways…agreeing with KrautBoy in the “Road to Final Four” thread…. 1) Rob can go with the guys this week and get rid of Deena….(to fullfil the idea he stabs her in the back as posted in an earlier thread by KB I think) 2) Bounces back with the ladies next week (he wants that 3-some) to boot alex 3) Rob bounces back with matt to get his trust again and knocks off Heidi (the other person Rob is said to have stabbed in the back…KB again I think) 4) Now Rob has no one else to manipulate and jeena is pissed at him, so they finally gang up on rob to dump him 5) we are left w/ chillones final 4 ...lets hear what everyone thinks and pick this apart...
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koki 35 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-04-03, 02:14 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Power Struggle Winners (and Losers)" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-03 AT 02:15 PM (EST)I agree with jcalvin, and I didnt think about the "Rob wont vote off Alex yet because it will show matt his true colors" Great thinking! Here is maybe something else that could add to Deena being the next boot... Basing on the "spoiler" that Jenna and Matt are in the final 2, Deena must be next weeks boot. Now that it is even in Jacare with 4 girls and 4 guys, the guys no longer have the majority. And how Heidi pointed it out during TC about the immunity chopping challenge, the guys took themselves out and it was the 4 chicks left. I think this was shown to us because its the "wake up call" for the guys and Rob decides to take out the female leader. This would be a smart move for the guys, because if Butch, Alex, Rob or Matt goes next week, then the girls will have the majority and then they would be free to pagong the guys and make an all female final 4 (and they have been voting together since merge, so it could happen)
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-05-03, 05:41 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Power Struggle Winners (and Losers)" |
koki, just a couple of points...I agree with jcalvin, and I didnt think about the "Rob wont vote off Alex yet because it will show matt his true colors" Great thinking! But, Alex can still be booted *without* Rob or Matt voting for him. Here is maybe something else that could add to Deena being the next boot... Basing on the "spoiler" that Jenna and Matt are in the final 2, Deena must be next weeks boot. I'm unclear why you think Deena *must* be the next boot if Matt and Jenna are F2? Clarification, please. Now that it is even in Jacare with 4 girls and 4 guys, the guys no longer have the majority. True, but I'm not sure it's relevant. Even when there were more men than women the past two weeks, no one was voting along gender lines. The old alliances were nuked by the switch and even though Christie is voting with the original Jaburu, keep in mind that Heidi does *not* like her and doesn't need her to remain in the game. And because the "4 Men, 4 Women" is mentioned so prominently in the preview, I get the feeling it's misdirection. And how Heidi pointed it out during TC about the immunity chopping challenge, the guys took themselves out and it was the 4 chicks left. I'm just not convinced that this is all that relevant either. Dave and Butch were obvious targets. Matt is outside of the core 5 alliance. Rob had no intention of trying to answer questions correctly and wanted to be eliminated so he doesn't appear to be a threat. I think this was shown to us because its the "wake up call" for the guys and Rob decides to take out the female leader. While Rob believes he wields this type of power and influence, I don't think the rest of the tribe/alliance is going to blindly follow Rob's directive. Well, Matt will and Alex could but Butch has no relationship with Rob to speak of and is probably immune to Rob's unusual strategy of taking everything personally. Would Butch vote against Deena to protect himself? Sure. Would he vote along with the three people who betrayed him before? Maybe. Will anyone take a chance of a tie at TC? IMO, no. This would be a smart move for the guys, because if Butch, Alex, Rob or Matt goes next week, then the girls will have the majority and then they would be free to pagong the guys and make an all female final 4 (and they have been voting together since merge, so it could happen) Well, it could happen but we already know (if you accept the spoilage that's out there) that Heidi finishes in sixth place and Deena isn't in the F4. Is this enough to conclude that a woman must go in E9? I don't think so. Here's a scenario. Heidi and Jenna have an alliance to go to F2. We've heard Rob discuss his F3 threesome. Deena and Jenna have discussed booting Alex because of his bond with Rob and he's an IC threat. Deena/Jenna/Heidi recruit Christie and free agent Butch and boot Alex. (Remember, there is a spoiler out there that after the game, Deena remains close to everyone, especially Butch and Christie except she really doesn't like Rob. Most likely, Butch and Christie don't vote against her and Rob betrays her. It's not the only reason for her good will toward Butch/Christie but it would make some sense.) Alex goes 5-3. Rob is upset and wants revenge. How dare Deena orchestrate an Alex boot without telling him? He is the puppetmaster after all! Deena's relationship with Chrisite and Butch is a threat to Heidi and Jenna so they jump back to Rob and agree to vote out the "leader" who is now firmly in control and as cocky and arrogant as ever. Deena goes 4-3. Now, Christie and Butch don't like Heidi anyway according to milkshaky and Roger's post game interviews, respectively. Rob needs to break up the Heidi/Jenna alliance so, along with Matt, votes out Heidi. She goes 4-2. In F5, Jenna's pissed at Rob, Butch and Christie don't trust him so out he goes, 3-2. Jenna, Matt, Christie, Butch = F4.
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Amily 88 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-05-03, 08:25 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Power Struggle Winners (and Losers)" |
Munson - I like your thinking about the F4 - makes a lot of sense, how they get there! Seems like the tension they are talking about for next week.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-03, 10:37 PM (EST)
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8. "Editing vs Occam's Razor" |
This whole week has revolved around one argument.We have the obvious boot when you look at editing (Deena). But the simplest boot, in terms of game play would be Alex. It depends where you think MB is going with the editing. I'm kind of with munson right now, about an Alex boot. I've been trying to find a feasible way to foresee a Deena boot, but it's just not happening. Sure, the editing and face time points to a Deena boot, but the numbers just don't seem to add up. Deena is the center of the universe. Let's face it. Jenna and Heidi made a deal in their original tribe with Deena. Christy is also very much influenced by Deena, shown through her voting and alliances. Rob, who is stringing along Matthew, has a plan to go to the finals with Deena. Unless we see some backstabbing and alliance-shifting, (which we haven't been shown AT ALL yet) an Alex boot is near. You never know though. For all we know, maybe Matt wises up this week and Christy and Heidi vote with Butch? Who knows? Speculation about that is kind of pointless. So lets look at an Alex boot. This would make sense because of the Jenna/Matt/Christy Final 4. Unless all three of these people jumped ship to Alex, the odds are that Deena's alliance with this people succeeded, but not for Deena. Besides, look at Alex's storyline. He was always a prominant member, not too UTR but noticed. He has an increase in face time when he hooks up with Shawna. And a sudden drop after that. This may be MB's way to keep the spotlight off of him and focus on more outspoken people like Deena. Who comes after that? Who cares? We can come up with millions of theories, but they're each just guesses. We need to focus on this week's IMHO. Summary: For a Deena Boot -Face time -Sudden drop in popularity (look in Fanatics for yourself) Against a Deena Boot -Alliances For an Alex Boot -Lots of possible votes out there against him Against an Alex Boot -Lack of face time recently In Honor of Summary Writers... 3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI 4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki 5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir 6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey 7. "Christy wins the Jan Gentry “Aim High” Award" -Fester
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-05-03, 11:35 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Editing vs Occam's Razor" |
Agree. BUT, it's almost impossible to NOT look ahead since we have a pretty good idea about 5 of the final 6. WITHOUT that information, wouldn't Occam's razor suggest a Butch boot with Matt as the alternate selection?
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-06-03, 06:03 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Editing vs Occam's Razor" |
wouldn't Occam's razor suggest a Butch boot with Matt as the alternate selection?Absolutely!!! Butch has always been the next target. First Dave than Roger than Butch. Yet Roger became a better target because of his attitude. Yet Heidi, if ya'll remember, saved Butch from a potential boot because she voted for Jeanne instead. Not that Butch owes her, but I bet she will try to save Butch again, because of her fondness for Butch. It's another vote. Which leads us to a very shakey moment when Heidi says to Deena, "Butch is not next, we should go for Alex". Although Deena sees it at a good oportunity to lose Rob's 2nd in command, she also does not want any of Heidi's friends making it either. Plus as far as Deena is concerned Heidi is not part of her F3. My guess is that the real fight will be between Deena and Heidi's choice for who is next. Butch or Alex. Alex thinks he has control. Rob says he has control. His control is taken next week by the guy who thought they were still voting for Butch, but wasn't informed pre-TC. Matt. Vote for - by Butch - Matt Alex - Christy/Heidi/Butch/Jenna Heidi - Deena/Rob/Alex or maybe not. tribephyl
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-06-03, 07:06 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Editing vs Occam's Razor" |
Yet Heidi, if ya'll remember, saved Butch from a potential boot because she voted for Jeanne instead. Not that Butch owes her, but I bet she will try to save Butch again, because of her fondness for Butch. It's another vote. Which leads us to a very shakey moment when Heidi says to Deena, "Butch is not next, we should go for Alex". Although Deena sees it at a good opportunity to lose Rob's 2nd in command, she also does not want any of Heidi's friends making it either.I like your thinking here. I have posted elsewhere (the challenge spec thread to be specific) why I believe Butch wins the RC and invites Heidi along to share in the spoils. Keep in mind that Heidi has already shown us her influence as she was the one (along with Jenna) who convinced the group to get rid of Roger before Dave. I think she does the same for Butch, who she believes is a nice guy and a non-threat, and paints a target on Alex, who she hasn't spent that much time with and all the women are a bit weary of, for both his strength and his relationship with Rob.
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OBX 37 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-06-03, 10:15 AM (EST)
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12. "PERFECT, AND I AGREE!" |
this is the best scenario yet to arrive at CO's info and i think this is exactly the events that will take place. you wrote:
1) Rob can go with the guys this week and get rid of Deena….(to fullfil the idea he stabs her in the back as posted in an earlier thread by KB I think) 2) Bounces back with the ladies next week (he wants that 3-some) to boot alex 3) Rob bounces back with matt to get his trust again and knocks off Heidi (the other person Rob is said to have stabbed in the back…KB again I think) 4) Now Rob has no one else to manipulate and jeena is pissed at him, so they finally gang up on rob to dump him 5) we are left w/ chillones final 4
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-07-03, 02:47 PM (EST)
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18. "Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
Brownroach and others, I made a speculative comment in the "Road to the Final Four" thread, in an effort to explain how Heidi would go F6 and Rob F5. It was not directly based on any spoiler. It was pure speculation and supposition, assembling all the information we had into a logical scenario. Here's the excerpt that has been quoted as fact, but it's only spec......So, now the scenario: After Dave’s departure, the game will be shaken up and Deena will probably go next, betrayed by Rob. Rob will continue to plot with Heidi and Jenna and get support from those who see Alex as a challenge threat, and vote off Alex as per the Boston Guy spoiler. Rob betrays again, this time Heidi, when he works a deal with Butch and Christy. Jenna tries to save herself, seeing that she’s next, and promises to take Christy to the F2, and Butch goes along. Goodbye Rob. Christy fails to win immunity and is betrayed by Jenna. Jenna wins immunity at F3 and takes Matthew with her to the F2 instead of the likeable Butch. Jenna who appears, to the ChillOne’s boatdriver, to be better liked, losses to Matthew because of her backstabbing. Matthew becomes the Ultimate Survivor. Summary:
TC 9: Deena TC10: Alex TC 11: Heidi TC 12: Rob TC 13A: Christy TC 13B: Butch F2: Jenna/ Matthew Ultimate Survivor: Matthew Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-07-03, 03:51 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
Thanks for clearing that up, KB.One thing that bugs me about Rob going in Ep 12 is that he would seem to be showing a cavalier disregard for jury votes along the way. He will have backstabbed three of his alliance members, and is not likely to get a vote from Dave. So I really think Rob may go in Ep 10, before things get to that point, but I don't know. We have no indication that Rob is in fact thinking about the jury, or who he wants to be up against in the F2. Ideally he should be looking at Matt or Deena, and he has Matt under his control. But he seems to want to dump Matt at the earliest opportunity too. Hard to figure what Rob's plans are -- maybe he thinks his "cleverness" will be enough to put him over the top in F2, no matter who's there with him.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-07-03, 05:26 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
>One thing that bugs me about >Rob going in Ep 12 >is that he would seem >to be showing a cavalier >disregard for jury votes along >the way. He >will have backstabbed three of >his alliance members, and is >not likely to get a >vote from Dave. Deena would probably be the only one who feels betrayed (as possibly confirmed by the spoiler or her dislike for Rob). If Deena goes this week, there won't be any real alliances left. Everyone will regroup and fend for themselves...and at that point Rob will be able to manipulate many of the other contestants to voting in such a way as to eliminate those Rob feels threatened by without being identified as the "back- stabber". > We have no indication >that Rob is in fact >thinking about the jury, or >who he wants to be >up against in the F2.
Alex and Heidi may never know it was Rob who betrayed them until after the show, but somehow it "will come back to bite him" because he doesn't make the final four. Rob's insecurity may cause him to make decisions of survival, rather than planning for the jury vote. He may be saving that part of his strategy for the final four, which he never gets to see... Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 12:04 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
Rob's insecurity may cause him to make decisions of survival, rather than planning for the jury vote. He may be saving that part of his strategy for the final four, which he never gets to see...I think you're right about this. I believe Rob is starting to feel more threatened by the women than by the men now, though. He said that he won't be seduced by Heidi's and Jenna's attempts to influence him with sex, and he knows Deena wants to be in control. If Deena goes this week, the men could very easily pagong the women. That would be the easiest and best strategy for Rob. The women regain no control; Butch the outsider or Alex can be eliminated at F4; the other one hopefully at F3, leaving Rob in the final 2 with Matt. But instead he decides to get Alex booted at TC 10, putting the men and women back at even numbers? I'm not quite convinced he would do this. In any case, since I have pretty good faith in the spoilers we have, Deena seems a foregone conclusion to go next, so there's another week to figure out the Alex and Rob placements.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-03, 01:42 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
At this point I believe Deena goes this week. But I don't think they will pagong the women. I think most of the men are more worried about the immunity threats of the other men than the women so they will still want to get the stronger threats out.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-07-03, 03:55 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
Phew... Thank you KB, for exposing the origins of this "spoiler/spec". I kept hearing about it as well. I must say that it got me rethinking some of my future picks. However, since it is speculation, as you have attested to, I will treat it as such. Not that I don't trust your analysis,I have always admired your abilities and often take them as gospel. Yet, I can say that, since learning of this spec. I feel comfortable with my previous picks, again. Even if I go down in flames because of them. tribephyl I think I like you even more than before, is that possible?
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jcalvin22 8 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-07-03, 04:41 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
Oh no...I'm replying to my own post.....just wanted to thank Krautboy for clearing up the misunderstanding...I was going to post a link to the other thread today and say it was only speculation but you beat me to the punch... ... ...also munson did make some good points about alex being the next boot...mainly about deena's relationship with others like christy and "free agent" butch...but i think i am still trusting KB's older speculation with deena going next... ...an interesting point brought up in a thread at votedoff.tv is that how ironic is it that the game started off men vs women then got totally blown apart by the rob/deena alliance only to go back to 4-4 men vs women again...that also matches up with the "not quite spoiler" of jeff talking about 5-3 suddenly being 4-4 ...it just happens its not just one person changing alliances but a whole shift...i do hope we dont have any purple rock tie breaker though and neither did MB so who knows what they tried to get cooking on the shoot... ...not too much new insight here...just wanted to drop an opinion...
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-07-03, 05:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Rob betrays Heidi is speculation..." |
Well, thanks to Brownroach, KB, et al, I'm not as convinced Alex goes next after all. The thing that keeps me straddling the line is that I believe it's far more likely that one of the men, OK...Rob, would vote with the women to dump Alex IF it does come down to a showdown based on gender.Since I think it unlikely that one of the women would vote against Deena, we're left with a 4-4 vote and... The Dreaded Purple Rock of Death! How...uninspired. If we do see a tie at TC, I hope MB has re-evaluated his tie breaker. I would hate to see Deena Pappy-ed.
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