Let's take a look at how the current alliances break down:

Jenna/Heidi - tight to the end

Jenna/Heidi/Deena - tight, but Deena is odd one out at F3. She was the next to go after Christy at the IC challenge.

Jenna/Heidi/Deena/Christy - girl alliance, but Christy is definitely on the outside. She was first to go from the 4 at the IC challenge.

Rob/Matt - Rob controls Matt, and from what we see Matt has no clue. (btw, Rob was such a phony at TC last night that I truly felt sorry for Matt. Nonetheless, Rob is controlling Matt's vote at this point.)

Rob/Alex/Matt - Men that went over at the swap. Alex would rather be with them than with Roger/Dave/Butch, and Rob feels the same way.

Butch - on the outside, but definitely UTR. He will not be allowed to rejoin the men, but he may be able to make it to F5 if he is treated like S2 Rodger was. The R/A/M men may pick each other off before they realize that Rodger, who at this point is unfortunately the weakest man, makes it to F5. He was the last man to go from the IC challenge.

Christy - UTR, and probably not a target anymore until only the girls are left. She doesn't have the strength of the other girls, so she isn't much of a challenge threat. It would have to be a mental contest in order for her to have a chance at winning a challenge that isn't part of a team.

Jenna/Heidi/Deena/Rob/Alex - This is the group that is expected to go to F5, because Christy/Butch/Matt are really entities of 1 without any true core alliance. Even if they for a misfit alliance ala S4, they don't have enough pull anymore because of numbers to pull it off. Their only hope is to hope that J/H/D have a power struggle with R/A, and that C/B/M teams up with R/A in order to put the boobie girls out. This also allows C/B/M to vote out R/A when it comes to F3, since Matt can probably outplay both Rob and Alex in physical challenges ala Colby/Kelly.

Conclusion: F5 will be J/H/D/R/A unless R/A team up with C/B/M.

If F5 = J/H/D/R/A, then F3 will be J/H/D, and F2 will be J/H. (Deena would have to win immunity, just like Kathy needed to and failed.) Who would win in a boobie F2 is a total toss-up for me.

If F5 - R/A/C/B/M, then F3 will be C/B/M. Matt dominate any physical challenge, and Christy and Butch are equal jury threats because they are nice. C or B would beat M on the jury for the million.