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"Alex or Dave next?"
I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-29-03, 02:05 PM (EST)
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"Alex or Dave next?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-03 AT 02:09 PM (EST)we saw that Deena wanted Dave gone before Roger (but allowed Heidi and Jenna to play to her feminazi side) BUT MB also included her throw away comment about wanting to get Alex out so Rob couldn't use him. This comment definitely had no place, because it was so quick it was virtually worthless for misdirection in Ep 7 (the misdirection was to Dave and Christy, Alex was never brought up really, other than this one tiny comment) Unless it was meant to foreshadow THIS week - possibly because Dave wins immunity? So, does the plan to boot Dave get pushed back another week? I'm thinking maybe so. Thoughts, opinions, flames? EDIT: of course with the sleeping with the enemy thing, Dave very likely could be the naked boot. and we never expected Alex to last long past this anyway, so saying he goes in two episodes isn't much of a stretch either
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-29-03, 05:18 PM (EST)
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1. "Dave+Heidi = Alex?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-03 AT 05:19 PM (EST)Dave still seems the most logical next vote to me, but if he's next what the hell is Heidi thinking? I've got to believe at this stage, that Jenna and Heidi are on the same page when it comes to who gets the boot. If Dave is going next, there is ZERO logic for Heidi to be getting all cozy with him. As the Dawg's says, if you have a contradiction check your assumptions. I think the assumptions are: 1) Dave is voted out next - (indicated by game logic) 2) Heidi & Dave get cozy - (indicated with video evidence) 3) Jenna & Heidi are on the same page - (indicated by confessionals) One or more of these assumptions would appear to me to be wrong. The assumption that lacks the most evidence would seem to me to be Dave getting voted out. editted for speling
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-30-03, 10:53 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Dave+Heidi = Alex?" |
<<<There seems to be an assumption that Heidi flirting with Dave would mean Dave isn't voted out. Shawna was voted out after getting cozy with Alex, so Heidi and Dave could be getting interested at a personal level and he'd still go.>>>Notice, when Shawna got cozy with Alex, she had pretty much already quit playing the game and wasn't playing to win. Too, SHE'S THE ONE THAT GOT THE AX, not Alex. By getting cozy with Alex, Shawna endangered her own future, not his. She had become unreliable. I don't believe Heidi has quit playing the game, she is still thinking strategy. My point is there is Zero strategic reason for her to even appear to be aligning with Dave unless the "girl alliance" was ok with it (regardless of what Rob has to say). If the girl alliance was going to put the moves on a guy/s, to work their womanly charms, they should not waste them on a guy leaving in 3 days, they should work them on the guys they expect to be around for awhile. Even if Heidi REALLY DID develope an interest in Dave, I don't think she'd be foolish enough to display it in the game. (See Shawna). There would be plenty of time for her to pursue a relationship outside of the game.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-31-03, 10:49 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Dave Heidi = Alex?" |
I also don't see where Dave being voted out next is "game logic"...right now the "game logic" would be dictated by the alliances.And the faction in control (new Jaburu + Heidi) are up in numbers, so there is no reason to think they will deviate from their original plan by voting out one of their own yet. That is why "game logic" says Dave should go this week. The only wrinkle in this would be Dave winning IC, or perhaps some scheming by Heidi, who was not on Jaburu when the original plan to boot Dave was conceived. But, as someone posted in another thread, the "getting cozy" could simply be Heidi courting Dave's jury vote. It's been assumed by spoilers around here that he's next to go, based more on spoiler evidence than anything else (and that spoiler evidence has been very shaky this season) It seems to me this problem has caused people to keep picking Alex to go, when game logic has to be twisted around to fit this. Alex was a strong boot possibility in Ep 6 based on game logic, but since he wasn't even a target, as it turned out, there was no reason to think he would be targeted in Ep 7.
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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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03-29-03, 06:46 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Alex or Dave next?" |
Obviously based solely on logic, spoilers, and what we know DAVE would be the next to be voted off the Amazon unless he wins ImmunityBut I am also questioning the fact of the matter why HEIDI is sleeping with DAVE? I don't understand why she would endanger her position within her alliance, sleeping with the enemy unless she has a very good reason for doing so... Whether you like HEIDI or not, she isn't a dumbass and has some brains that have helped her get this far, unless there is something we don't know it would be stupid for HEIDI to piss off her alliance by sleeping with DAVE for no reason.. I think it is a bit early to decide but I have got this feeling HEIDI has some sort of trick up her sleeve and despertaly wants DAVE to stay in the game and I think JENNA is in on it So perhaps DAVE is more safe than we originally thought and come on do you think MB would give us two obvious boots in a row?..It is kind of hard to believe but the Matt goes crazy is definitely mis-direction I believe I don't see ALEX going next, Deena needs Rob to think he can trust her 100% so gettin rid of Alex would not make Rob stay on good terms with Deena so I think the only other possiblity is MATTHEW MATTHEW or DAVE you decide!! Right now I am taking a risk and leaning towards MATTHEW, I mean he supposedly goes crazy, everybody is afraid of him,and he really has no solid allies except people that want to use his vote What do you think??
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railfan 450 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-29-03, 06:52 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Alex or Dave next?" |
Why is everyone getting on Matthew's case based on the previews? This appears to be classic EPMB misdirection to me. Personally, I think he's sharpening the machete to give himself (and others?) haircuts.
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prn 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-29-03, 07:33 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Alex or Dave next?" |
Being a relative newbie, this might not be the best place for this, but here i go..."But I am also questioning the fact of the matter why HEIDI is sleeping with DAVE? I don't understand why she would endanger her position within her alliance, sleeping with the enemy unless she has a very good reason for doing so..." If I remember right, Rob is the only one heard commenting about the Heidi Dave thing… Remember the nature of Rob, insecure, wants the “hot” chicks… he might be bothered by it, but no one else might be. Also, they are wearing rain gear… it might be about warmth, huddling together to get warm in the rain at night. It does get cold. With that said, if you were Heidi would you want to huddle up to Matt, or Rob? I don’t think so. (Someone may have already claimed Alex.) I just think it’s going to be a hard one to call this week… to many scenarios…
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Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-29-03, 06:50 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Alex or Dave next?" |
Booting Dave would be a bad move for Rob.Current known alliances Deena/Heidi/Jenna/Christy + Rob/Alex/Matthew Butch/Dave With the current setup Rob is looking at a 5th place finish at best, perhaps 6th if Dave cuddles his way into the girls alliance. Rob's best move at this point would be to take the 'boys' and form an alliance with Butch and Dave. Deena/Heidi/Jenna/Christy Rob/Alex/Matthew + Butch/Dave Rob would move himself into a final 3 position by having his alliance vote out Deena. Just some thoughts as I can't see how a student of the game like Rob would let Deena take control of the game.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-29-03, 10:03 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Alex or Dave next?" |
I'm convinced that the Heidi/Dave cuddling scenario amounts to just so much misdirection, even moreso than *crazy* Matt.Dave was a target in E7 for all the obvious reasons. He was given a stay while the group rid themselves of another irritant. The target shifts back to Dave in E8. How are we led away from Dave? A preview shot suggesting the possibility of Heidi joining Dave. I'm not buying it. Heidi knows exactly what she's doing. She is finally getting the chance to deploy her initial strategy which she stated all the way back in E1 - using her feminine charms on the men to advance herself in the game. Dave's attraction to Heidi is strategic; we're told as much in the CBS website misdirection. Heidi gratefully accepts Dave's *romantic* overtures to gain his trust and keep her enemy close. Heidi and Jenna have been very clear in their joint confessionals that they want to show that the cute girls can beat the guys at their own game - strategy and manipulation. Grrrl Power WILL prevail, at least for a while. I think Dave goes unless he wins immunity. But I don't think he does. My guess is the shot of the mask being smashed in the preview vidcaps is this year's "Knock Out Your Tribemates" IC (S4 Coconut Chop, S5 Torch Snuff when Penny extinguished Jake) and there is NO WAY he will survive this challenge.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-29-03, 10:48 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Alex or Dave next?" |
I think Dave's kicking the bucket next.Look at what happened with Shawna and Alex. Those two got cozy. Everyone saw them as a threat, and broke up the power. If Deena sees Heidi (NOT in Deena's "final 3") flirting, she will not let that resume. There's no way. Deena has come on as kind of a possessive person when it comes to alliances. So, how are we going to hide the Dave boot? Throw Matt's creepiness at us the entire episode. I say, the more Matt next episode, the more likely Dave goes. In Honor of Summary Writers... 2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott 3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI 4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki 5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir 6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey
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jcalvin22 8 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-30-03, 03:26 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Alex or Dave next? (and my boot order)" |
Hey folks...I'm a newbie at posting but I've read these threads all season...please pick apart my ideas here...Veruca....I gotta agree and disagree with some parts of your post..I agree that this whole thing with "crazy matt" is fluff...he's not goin anywhere this week...and I do think that Dave is next on the Rob/Deena hit list...but I'm thinking Alex is next to go...and here's why: Ok...Dave is on the chopping block this week, but he knows this and is not stupid (and he's strong)...So he starts to work Heidi and we've already seen he can do it...maybe she won't be wooed this episode but next...anyways I think Dave is gonna walk away with immunity this week...now butch would be the other one in the old "men" alliance...but he is not viewed as a threat by the Rob/Deena alliance...so they figure they should boot one of their own who's an immunity threat..that makes it Alex or matt...but everyone thinks matt is easily led along so they think they can use him later...so poor alex gets the inside boot... Now this gives us the JP quote about the tribal council where "they think they are at 5 against three, and suddenly its 4 on 4" ...this is where I think heidi and christy are going with butch and dave...so 4 votes for Dave in EP 9 and 4 for someone else ROB/Deena...here we have our tiebreaker..and I'll go with Dave getting the boot based on the weight loss spoiler.. at this point trust has gone out the window...and now that dave is gone heidi jumps ship again (she's that type) and goes back with jenna and deena...they decide to take advantage of her vote...so now Robs "web spinning" (the spider allusion) comes back and bites him and he gets the boot... now we have good evidence heidi goes next (6th place) and this makes sense now because the Deena alliance can't trust her at all because she switches alliances so much... now butch and christy still seemed outnumbered but here is where matt finally does something and helps to oust deena who's been way to confident the whole time...this gives us the CO final four M/J/B/C... Then another tie breaker sends christy home (butch and christy voting together against matt and jenna voting together)...then of course if either matt or jenna wins immunity they send butch home because they know he would win the voting at final 2...that leaves us with the jeena and matt final 2 ive read so much about... thats my thoughts bout this week and how it could unwind the rest of the season...hope this is a good thread to post this in...
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-03, 02:58 PM (EST)
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11. "How about "neither" !?" |
Why are we so sure Dave is going to be next? Most people are suggesting his non-weight-loss spoiler. But hell, he's been out there three weeks now already. Further, Jeanne DID have weight loss spoilers, and she's in Loser Lodge.As to the Chill One Final Four, the only one I'll absolutely concede is Christy. It's kinda hard to get around "the deaf girl", there. While I think Jenna might be a possible, I am not conceding that the other two are absolutely Matt and Butch. One could easily substitute Alex for Matt, or even both Alex and Matt instead of Butch. So who are possible other targets? Deena. Yes, Deena. A strong, Alpha-female, who's been getting LOTS of face time, and using that face time to tell us how in control of the game she is. *drip drip*. Also is info, from SNewser and others I think, that Deena didn't last long after the merge. Heidi. Supposedly she gets betrayed by Rob. That spoiler suggesting she's 6th out could be just another *BOGUS* spoiler, or even an EPMB plant (like some of the other *BOGUS* spoilers this season might have been). Butch. Let's face it, Dave and Butch are on the outside looking in. Dave is at least making overtures to getting in with Heidi, which means being in with Heidi and Jenna. Butch, though, isn't being shown. Could he be this season's Zzzoe Zzzanadakis, and so boring that MB just doesn't show him? Or possibly he gets in with Christy and Deena, which propels him towards the Final Four? I'm just throwing this stuff out here to show y'all that nothing is etched in stone. However, you may feel free to try and convince me that it IS Alex or Dave.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-03, 06:07 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-03 AT 06:10 PM (EST)oh, you make very good points Dawg, and I'm certainly not saying they are the ONLY targets, just the main ones. Matt seems clearly to be misdirection. Dave may be, but may be a naked boot. Basically, Dave is next on Deena and Rob's hit list, and is the obvious target. However, Alex is not really in their alliance, and they may choose, should Dave win immunity, to keep Butch over Alex merely because he is more likeable (and probably less of an immunity threat). If Dave does not win immunity, I 95% expect him to go, but that other 5%, and maybe a 60% if Dave does win immunity, would be Alex just IMHO of course any of those you mention could go of course, but it seems at least an episode, if not two, too early for the dominant alliance to start cannibalizing
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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-30-03, 07:52 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
What if.... We have seen very little of Butch. What if he is a leader, just low keyed and behind the scenes. What if he now becomes more open recruiting Dave, Christy, Jenna and Heidi. How could he get each of these to turn on the others?Dave - Obviously in with Butch Christy - I think they have a close relationship and respect each other and she would be willing to work with someone like that. He only voted for here because he had to live up to his word to the "guys". Heidi - Likes Dave and willing to work with him. Jenna - closely aligned with Heidi and agrees to go along with her. That would make #9 - Alex immunity threat and Heidi and Jenna convince Deena to get rid of him making it look like Deena is still in charge of everything (or alt if he wins immunity Matt) #8 - Matt (or Alex) Deena if M/A win immunity #7 - Matt/Alex/Deena - whoever is left #6 - Basing this on Heidi going here because she is getting weak and very sick. #5 - Rob - Last to be Pagonged #4-1 take you pick... Tear it apart and throw it out if it is wrong... Booted
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-03, 08:14 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
Along your line of thinking, Boot Ed, let me suggest this:Butch and Dave embark on a plan to gather allies. Dave successfully "turns" Heidi, who brings in Jenna. All of a sudden, we have four people. Butch does a little work on Christy. Maybe it works, maybe not. But lets say that ROB gets wind of all this... and his "displeasure" with Dave is the real CBS misdirection here. Now you've got 5 or 6 people... and Deena, shown as feeling safe and secure and very Alpha-female-ish, is suddenly the next target, with the bare minimal support of Alex and Matthew and maybe Christy (if any of them). Spoilers supported: 1) Deena doesn't last long after the merge. 2) Butch is saved. 3) Rob turns, then can later turn on Heidi, thus fulfilling that little set of spoilers. I'm stunned with myself... this is actually making sense!
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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speedstr24 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-31-03, 04:43 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
Okay, this is just ramblings but hopefully by the end this will make sense. I haven't been on spoilers for awhile.. but it's always fun to read everyone's comments...First off, here are my predictions... 9) Matthew 8) Deena 7) Rob 6) Heidi 5) Dave 4) Christy 3) Butch 2) Jenna 1) Alex So here is why I think the way I do...
There are a number of reasons why I DON'T see Alex leaving... for one, there were some predictions he was leaving earlier than later... but everyone expected him to go right after Shawna... but he didn't. Now everyone is still trying to peg him to go sooner, but NO ONE has really come up with a reasonable explanation of HOW he goes. It's interesting because Alex has been shown a few times in confessionals and what not BUT has ANYONE ever commented on alex?? Other than shawna of course (and we all know that it wasn't game oriented but hormone oriented).. There may have been a couple of side comments here and there, but basically, we know NOTHING of how other survivors view him. From what has happened, we know that we was in a tight 4 person alliance with dave, butch, and roger (so they thought) and he was in a tight 5 person alliance with new Jabaru. So he has been playing both sides but VERY inconspicuously. No one seems to have a problem with him. Now there is a possibility that he is a "hidden" victim. Burnett is "hiding" his ouster... but he seems like an interesting character (TOTALLY not like Erin from S5) so I don't see why he would do that. PLUS, his description meets Chillone's description of someone who makes final2, so I think for alex, his editing seems to be that of someone who atleast makes final4. 9) MATT - So it seems too obvious that matt will be going in the previews so we are all thinking that he CAN'T go. But Burnett has had obvious boots like roger before. Now, would be do that twice in a row? MY guess is yes. I think the misdirection is the Dave will be going. Everyone (spoilers, general public, etc) knows that Dave was in the dark about the last vote and we all know that Deena was targetting him so the general public at least will think that Dave will go. Burnett decided to say in the previews that Matt will go and because everyone thinks that it's either Dave (general public) or Alex (spoiler people). I'm calling burnett's bluff and I think that everyone thinks that Matt is weird AND an immunity threat. Deena will think that there is enough room in her alliance (jenna, heidi, rob, alex and now christy) so oust matt, get rid of an immunity threat and still have a majority. Heidi will probably work to get matt off because of her closeness with dave. No one is really close to matt so there is no one to protect him. Plus, let's not forget HOW MUCH screen time matt has gotten. I think he has had a HUGE amount of screen time. And lots of people have talked about matt in their confessionals AND Matt has talked alot about strategy as well. I think is "story arc" is near DONE. 8) Deena... now this one is based on a couple of reasons. The first reason is the spoiler that she goes early in the merge. The second reason is how much screen time she has gotten. Her game plan has been revealed. Ususally when alliances are shown that early in the game, they don't turn out. And because she is the leader of this alliance, she will be the first to go. We know EXACTLY how she feels about most people BUT there have been NO confessionals (other than rob) about how others feel about her. Alex, heidi and christy may not feel very trustful of her. I can definitely see Dave, Butch, Christy, Alex and Heidi deciding to vote out Deena because of her bossiness, because she may be an immunity threat, etc. I'm sure that butch and dave probably don't really like her (like roger) and I can see christy getting closer to butch for sure and begin to align herself differently (she must know that she'll be on the outside looking in if she stays with the NEW jabaru alliance). Who knows what alex thinks of her (he hasn't made a comment). He may do what he did with roger. Put up with her because he had to but when given the opportunity, capitalize and get rid of her. I'm sure that alex and heidi know that she is a threat. I'm sure heidi would want to get rid of her because of her closeness with jenna. 7) I think the reason why Rob will go now is similar to why deena goes. He has had sooooo much screen time so far in this series. Granted he is funny, but he has also revealed his WHOLE strategy so early in the merge. He is like alex in the sense that he is a fence sitter, but I think that other people are beginning to see through his fence sitting, whereas people may not be as inclined to think that about alex. He also TOTALLY LIED at tribal council about roger... but he lied SO WELL. He didn't even try to be honest which will probably mean that other people may not be willing to trust him when they talk to him. Also he initiated strategy talk with his whole tribe, so if they didn't before, they ALL know that he is a strategic player, therefore a threat. I'm sure that once deena goes, his whole cover will be blown. People will get onto him or he'll self destruct by trying to scheme and plot too much and people will be sick of it. 6) There are a couple of reasons why I think heidi will go here but to be honest, I'm basing alot of it on Chillone's spoiler that she goes sixth. So I think heidi will be the biggest reason why Deena and Rob go before her. Everyone will know that she has flipped flopped sides so many times. She flopped when she voted out jeanne (dave, butch, roger and christy all know that), she will flop to vote out deena (to protect dave) - which will make alex, rob and jenna trust her less. I think Rob will freak out on heidi. Probst once said that a 5-3 vote will turn into a 4-4 vote and I think deena's ouster is where that will happen. It will be rob, alex, jenna and deena versus christy, butch, dave and HEIDI. She will betray deena, and because of it, ruin rob's plans. This will make rob angry. I think heidi knows this and so will want rob off as soon as possible. So I think butch for sure will target Heidi. If roger had such a huge problem with heidi, I'm sure that butch may have as well. He may try to get alex and christy on his side. Christy will probably immediately because she doesn't like heidi and trusts butch more than heidi. I could also see them bringing along alex as well. Remember alex was in that 4 man alliance and the only problem he had was with Roger. Now that roger is voted out, he could easily go back to butch. Alex would also probably recognize how much of a threat heidi is (as much as you may not like her, she is a threat) and how untrustworthy she is. I don't know if dave or jenna could vote for heidi because of their closeness. It may come down to a 3-3 vote (or jenna may feel betrayed by heidi - like Susan was is S1 with kelly). 5)Dave... so it's hard to see dave get this far because he is SUCH a huge immunity threat.. but I could see him getting this far because of other people getting more attention AND getting a couple of immunities. At this point, it's hard to pinpoint strategy, etc because it's farther along in the game.. but I'll try! So I think at this point everyone will see dave as an immunity threat. Let's say he has won the last couple of immunities. I think that would be enough for Jenna, alex and christy to vote against him. I don't know if butch could ever vote against dave, but even though christy may be aligned with butch, I can see her voting off dave. Especially if alex can convince her it's the best thing to do. Christy is definitely on the periphery of all the alliances and at this point, everyone will want her vote. It's in her best interest to vote out dave so that that immunity threat is gone and also to solidify her alliance with butch. 4) Christy. Again, this theory has alot to do with Chillone's prediction. So it'll come down to 2-2 (butch, christy vs alex, jenna). They'll target christy because of her strength. Jenna would vote for christy more for dislike. Christy and butch would probably vote for alex. 3) Butch. Again, refer to chillone's predictions. Plus at this point, alex and jenna are better aligned, plus butch is a popular player so when it comes down to the end game, he would be a threat. 2) I'm going to say jenna, because she if she did make final2, it would have been because of circumstance and because she had other people in her alliance that deflected attention of her. If she actually does make final2, good for her... she must have done a few things right. But she is not the smartest cookie in the jar (telling dave all of old jabaru's secrets, stripping for peanut butter, "cooking" her undies, being mean to christy, being soooooo superficial, etc etc etc). 1) Alex. So far, he his screen time has been very positive. He is an immunity threat, but dave and matt are more of an immunity threat. He is a fence sitter, but appears to be doing a good job with it. He has been like the s5 winner (can't remember his name for some reason) in the major alliances but still able to cover up any leadership position he may have. No one has said ANYTHING bad about him, and we have NO idea what his strategy is (it hasn't been revealed yet), and we have NO idea what others think about him. He hasn't really had a major story arc yet either. He was central to Shawna's story arc, but it wasn't his arc, it was clearly shawna's. Matt, deena, and rob's stories have all been revealed. Dave, Heidi, Christy and Jenna's have been developed and are revealing themselves. But Butch and Alex's story arcs haven't really been developed as much, which makes me think that they last longer in the game. I know that everyone is thinking that me must go soon, but the whole theory about him leaving early to meet shawna at LL is now moot, so it's harder for me to believe the early boot spoiler about him. And I just can't see burnett hiding him and then alex getting booted WITHOUT a storyline like zoe and erin. He is obviously a game player (he voted out roger) and shawna is gone so I think there will be more interesting things to reveal about him that can't be revealed in just one episode. Anywho, this thing is so freaking long! Sheesh. Sorry about that. Feel free to make any additional comments! Tell me where my theories make sense and where they don't! I have to say I'm really enjoying this series. I LOVED shii-ann last season and I thought she totally got the shaft with the whole non-merge debacle. It turned the show into this HUGE PAGONGING that has not been seen since the original show. I don't think this will happen this time around. THANK GOD!!!!!
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-31-03, 09:48 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 09:54 AM (EST)Someone on another thread (Roger's chat, I think) suggested a good reason Alex could go next: Roger, in his chat, really hated Alex for not keeping with the original line for the guys to boot girls. Dave may feel the same way (Dave's face at Tribal Council would certainly suggest it). So Dave is getting in good with Heidi, which could bring her and Jenna into his fold. Who would Dave suggest that they target? Alex. Butch, who probably feels the same way as Dave, would have NO problem being convinced to vote for Alex. So there are 4 potential votes for Alex. It was Alex that ultimately decided the fate of the Mole (Daniel) earlier in the game. Think Matthew hasn't forgotten? Oh, and about that little menage-a-trois with Shawna... think Matthew hasn't forgotten? That's 5. And let's not forget that it was mentioned last episode that Deena thought Alex needed to be waxed fairly soon. Might not be too hard for Heidi and Jenna to convince Deena to punt Alex now instead of Dave... they could even tell Deena that they're getting Dave on their side for now, etc. etc. Could be 6. Deena brings Rob into it (Rob would have no trouble betraying Alex), and Deena or Butch brings in Christy. Oh my, we've got 7 or 8 votes for Alex. So this would be a plausible explanation of how Alex could go next.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-31-03, 12:04 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 12:11 PM (EST)I disagree. Well, the Matthew thing is a good point. The Dave/Heidi thing might be the completely BS misdirection. Who's the next target on Deena's list? Dave. So, look at it from MB's point of view. The audience knows Dave and Butch are on the chopping block. How does he cover this up? Show us a preview of Dave getting cozy with Heidi. That makes us all believe that Dave's safe now, because Heidi will FIGHT for him with her alliance. But WILL Heidi switch sides for Dave??? We have two explanations that would still lead to a Dave boot: 1. Heidi stays with Deena -Simplest explanation. Dave or Butch is gone. 2. Heidi switches (dumb move for Heidi) -Okay... So what? Now we have an alliance of B/D/H versus D/J/C/R/A/M. That's 3 votes to 7. Wouldn't really help Dave that much. They would need more help, but who would switch with Heidi? A. Jenna- Nope. Deena has told Jenna already that she'll be in the Final 3. Why mess that up when she's already got her act together? B. Deena- No. Deena's the self-proclaimed "alpha female." She is in a good position right now. She's in the majority alliance, and more importantly, she's in the majority WITHIN the majority alliance. C. Christy- Perhaps. But I'd still say no. Some people speculated last week that she'd vote with Butch. Did she? Nope, and she might not "fall for it" this week. To say that Butch could just suck up to Christy, to swing her vote, is saying that Christy is dumb and impressionable. Christy won't want to vote for Butch, but she will vote for Dave. D. Rob- Nope. Rob can't stand Dave, and like Deena, he doens't want to screw up his plans. E. Alex- Maybe, maybe not. He still is in with Rob, which would suggest that he won't switch sides though. F. Matthew- Who knows what this guy is thinking? All we know is that he's going to creep out his other tribemates, which could be another shield to cover the Dave boot. However, it is perfectly possible for an Alex boot to happen. Remember Occam's Razor. In S2, we watched Tina's alliance vote out Jerri and Amber before completely Pagonging the other tribe. We might have another S2 strategy. As Dawg mentioned, Deena made a note about wanting Alex gone soon. So, her alliance may just vote him out (well, they do have a huge lead!) without Alex being any wiser about it. Couple that idea to Heidi possibly switching... You have your 5-3 scenario in the next episode. I think that ONE of these two scenarios will happen. It just depends on which fish (Alex, Dave) that Deena and Jenna want to fry. I'm starting to believe the second scenario more, but the first one is quite plausible as well. Edited to add a snippet about Heidi. If Heidi's strategy is to bring Deena and Rob down, then she'd be in support of an Alex boot. I mean, an Alex boot would mean three things for Heidi. 1. Her alliance of 3 would stay intact. 2. She'd still look like she's "in" with Deena. 3. Deena's alliance would be down one person. So, I'd say that if any move toward Deena would happen, it would be next week. In Honor of Summary Writers... 2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott 3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI 4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki 5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir 6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey
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bichon 124 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-31-03, 05:26 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: How about "neither" !?" |
At this point, I think it would not be too hard to believe that anyone (except Jenna) goes. Jenna is the safest, because there really seems to be more to her than what has been shown. Rob and Deena, are rather safe too. Although I don't think they will last too long, it will take a few episodes at least to watch their fall from grace. Heidi is also quite safe because I don't think any of the desperate men will vote for her. The only senario in which this can happen is if Rob gets jealous that she's spending too much time with Dave but that's still quite unlikely. Christy and Butch are flying UTR. IMHO, they're neither safe nor vulnerable. I mean, Butch may very well be the next Z.Z. Well, that leaves the 3 men - Matthew, Dave and Alex. Of course it might be already rather obvious so I appologise if you think what I've mentioned so far are useless. Anyway, most reasons have already been mentioned why either of the guys are going. But I still think Dave is going. For one, I don't think that Deena will change her mind on Dave being a threat. Matt, as has been mentioned, is just being used for misdirection. Even if Heidi goes and joins Butch and Dave, I don't think Jenna will. Jenna and Deena are too tight. At most, the alliance will consist of Heidi, Dave, Butch and Christy, so all the more Deena will want to keep Matt around for his vote. At this point, I think Alex would be more likely to jump ship than Matt, but neither is likely. So I still think that Dave will go, unless he wins immunity.
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ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-31-03, 12:41 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Alex" |
I agree that Alex is not likely the next boot based upon the comments of the other survivors. He has not offended anyone and I would not expect him to be a target. I would think that he was a likely final 4 or 2 contestant except for the chill one's spoiler that the female finalist was better liked than the male. I wonder if there is a spoiler that I am not aware of that says that Rob leaves early, because I think that he would fit the description of not being as well liked if his true colors come out. While he is not that large, he is larger than the women and more likely to last longer than Matt based upon his alliances.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-31-03, 02:54 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Alex" |
Well, my whole point was that IF Heidi is smart enough to be playing a hard game, then she's going to be smart enough to realize that Deena may not have her (Heidi's) best interests at heart.In fact, we've seen Deena say to Rob to take Jenna (not Heidi) to the Final 3. What if Heidi gets wind of this? Furthermore, IF (and yes, it's a big IF) the information is true about Rob (that Deena doesn't like him, that he betrays Heidi, etc.), then there has to be a situation for this to take place. One possible scenario is Rob betraying Deena then later betraying Heidi by switching back and forth. Also, I'm not dismissing Alex at all as a boot candidate; in fact, I'd suggest that he's the leading candidate in my mind right now (and Deena is second). And I'm wholly convince the whole Matteo thing is going to be like that big head injury, or Alex's heartbreak over Shawna. I give it 12.2 seconds of airtime, what's your guess?
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-01-03, 06:13 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Jenna" |
First, in a line that could come from the book 1984: "Strength Is Weakness". In Survivor, to be a strong person like Deena is a negative, not a positive. Deena is certainly an immunity threat; in fact, she has already won an immunity! She's also cocky about it, very full of herself, which has been prominently shown' on TV. So would Jenna, for strategic reasons, abandon a weaker Heidi for a stronger Deena? IMHO, no. Also, Nash's Game Theory... I said in that thread that IMHO, JP was referring to allliances and trust. It would appear that Heidi and Jenna like each other and trust each other, as Colby and Tina did, as Paschal and Neleh did, etc. So I think Heidi and Jenna will work as a team. Hell, they're bathing each other, so they'd better be working as a team! ALSO, the observation that Deena "has more people on her side" reminds me of the old Japanese saying that "life is an illusion". I think Deena's whole alliance structure is an illusion... one that is going to evaporate in her face at an upcoming Tribal Council. Whether it is this one, I dunno.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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03-31-03, 12:57 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Heidi the Chessmaster" |
I have a feeling that Heidi is getting ready to "jump" to the other side (B/C/D). It could be for a variety of reasons - getting close to Dave, wanting to get away from the very strong leaders (Deena/Rob), etc. I also have a feeling she could be the one who jumps out of a 5 vs 3 alliance and causes a "tie vote" as JP alluded to in an interview referenced on another thread. Then, the "purple stone" would have to be used, or some variant- allowing anyone (not just the two with votes) to randomly be eliminated. The producers hate this and I understand they try hard to persuade the players to avoid a tie at all costs. If Heidi causes a tie, then this could really explain why JP and MB are so down on her in editing, interviews, etc. Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of hers, but I do think they are going out of their way to continually put her in the worst possible light.Having said all that, this would imply that Dave does not go this week, but probably gets immmunity. My guess is Alex goes instead, but it could also be another member of the majority alliance (Deena, Rob, Matt, not Jennna). If this happens, it could explain why Heidi would get voted off herself soon afterwards, as everyone would realize how unreliable she is.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-01-03, 03:03 AM (EST)
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34. "Dave wins Immunity?" |
Welcome JCalvin22! I've enjoyed your thought process. Glad you've decided to join us.The scenario you've layed out is very feasible... Last week all signs pointed to Roger being the target and we assumed he would win immunity in order to survive (we assumed the outside spoilers about Alex were reliable). This week all the editing once again points blatantly at the logical target; this time Dave. MB didn't need to show us as much about Dave as he did. Dave winning immunity seems like the best explanation for it. Matthew is also edited as a target; probably the alternate choice at TC, exaggerating his odd behavior and turning him into a crazed psycho. We are encouraged to consider Matthew instead of Alex, who Deena mentioned as her boot preference over Rob. Nice first posts JCalvin22! Krautboy
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