LAST EDITED ON 03-26-03 AT 07:02 PM (EST)

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Apologies for the late posting, I'll make this quick:

- There is a real merge

- There is no reward challenge

- There is an individual endurance immunity challenge where (as always) food is offered as a prize to quit the challenge

- A number of the younger guys seem to wash out early and Heidi and Jenna apparently strip naked for a share of someone who's already quit's food (insert your own "will strip naked for food" joke here.)

- Roger or Deena seem to be the prime suspects to win. Based on some of the clips shown, Roger seems slightly more likely to be the winner and therefore he is our Immunity Challenge winner prediction.

- Alliances are all mixed as they go to Tribal Council... Jenna and Heidi are together... is Deena still with them? Have Jenna and Deena really brought some of the younger guys into their alliance? Heidi seems unlikely to have any plans to align with Roger/Butch/Dave... or does she? Are the men together or apart ...and being up 6/4 over the women, is it that hard for them to remain together long enough to boot another woman and securely put the power into their hands? If the men do come together, would Deena be their clear target?

If the men are together, then given the fascination of the younger men with Heidi and Jenna and the fascination of the older men with Christy, then DEENA would clearly seem to be the woman that would be most likely to be booted. However it seems that the divisoins among the men have run deep enough that they will not be able to regroup and securely put the men in control of the game by going up 6/3 and instead they will turn among themselves. That said, lets examine the tribal dynamics:

- Shawna and Alex voted for Matt last TC
- Rob, MAtt, Jenna, and Deena all voted for Shawna
- Alex doesn't seem to care for Roger (remember Burnett made a point to show us Alex's heated discussion with Roger over homosexuality several episodes back.)
- Roger seems to be quite secure with his role in the game
- Christy seems to be quite fond of Roger, Butch, and possibly Dave as well
- Dave clearly seems to prefer Roger and Butch to the other men
- Christy has made no secret of her unhappiness with her earlier tribe of women.
- Alex has disappointed to see Shawna leave
- Jenna knows that Alex is lost to Shawna is is useless in her and Hedi's plans to manipulate a man or two into doing their bidding

Therefore ALEX seems to be the outsider in his new tribe of ROB/MATT/DEENA/JENNA. Jenna (and likely soon to be Heidi as well) see Alex as an unlikely tool to be able to further their own place in the game. Roger has questoinable loyalty to Alex. Christy likely will be indifferent to a Alex boot and realize her best endgame play is likely to try and remain allied with Butch and Roger. Deena will look out for herself and do everything she can to A) boot a man, B) boot a man other than MAtt and Rob (who she appears to have an alliance of sorts with.)

All and all, the logic for an ALEX boot is all there and therefore ALEX is our official bootee prediction. If somehow the men were to remain collectively aligned, DEENA would seem to be the logical picj from the woman's side therefore we'll go with her as our alternate selection.

-SB

edited for typos