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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-23-03, 09:18 PM (EST) "EP7 Vidcap Chronology" The following chronology attempts to combine vidcaps, voice overs, and CBS website previews into a logical sequence/scenario. DAY 18: After Tribal council… “A distraught Alex struggles over Shawna's departure. Character redemption for the likeable Alex… DAY 19: Relocation to “The Forest of Life” ”The mysterious locked box brings sweeping changes to the tribes.” “Rob: There it is. Deena: Here'sssss the key. JP: The tribes learn the secret of the locked box.” Treemail arrives and the tribes receive the key to the “mystery box”. (Jenna is wearing her yellow top) The instructions apparently tell them to quickly gather their things. (instructions give them a short, limited amount of time). The box probably contains a map to the new merge camp location. (which we know is in the Forest of Life). The tribes arrive at the merge camp location still wearing their blue and yellow buffs. They apparently receive the red buffs sometime after they arrive at their new location. They may or may not have a merge celebration. (Vidcap evidence hidden from us.) DAY 20: Merge Camp Heidi and Jenna happy to be reunited.(Heidi wearing the merge buff on her wrist. Jenna wearing a top other than the yellow she was wearing when they received treemail about the relocation) “Deena: I don't think I have seen Jaburu move that fast, ever.” Deena now wearing the merge colors, commenting on the previous day. ”Dave: They are looking at the whole package…<inaudible>?” Dave commenting about his chances with the ladies, sees himself as a “complete package”. Dave is reunited with Jenna, since his “ambassador” date, and probably flirts with “the ladies” (Heidi and Jenna) ”One Survivor's smooth talk with the ladies irks Rob, who vows to target the suave tribe member.” Rob is jealous about Dave’s “smooth talking” the “ladies” and we will probably see Rob commenting on Dave as a possible target….(misdirection away from this week’s boot…Alex) Meanwhile, Roger assumes the men, led by him and Butch, are in control of the game with a 6-4 advantage… ”VO: One castaway thinks he controls the game.” ”VO: Is he living a fantasy?” ”Deena: They think that we are so stupid." Deena is shown quietly rebelling against the men, knowing that Rob and Matthew may vote with Deena and her reunited alliance. Now that a new camp needs to be rebuilt, Roger reverts to his old, bossy ways, as he takes charge. "Alex: He's obnoxious, he's bossy." Roger is edited as a vulnerable target in an attempt to direct our attention away from considering Alex. DAY 21: Immunity Challenge The first individual Immunity Challenge has been an endurance challenge in several of the previous editions of Survivor. MB appears to have gone back to this type of IC. Tree mail arrives and the survivors get ready to go to the IC Roger before IC, (challenge buff not yet around his neck), wearing long sleeve shirt and floppy hat. (anticipating spending a long time in the sun…) The IC. Last one on their perch wins Individual Immunity. (Food incentives are used to lure the survivors into jumping off) Jenna wearing her pink top over her swimsuit. (Confirming that the IC takes place on a different day than the relocation, when Jenna wore her yellow top) Left to Right: Roger, Christy, Alex, Jenna, Rob, Matthew, Deena, Dave, Butch, Heidi. Those who feel the most secure will be the first to jump, in order to take advantage of the food incentives. Matthew and Rob apparently jump early, followed by Dave later… Dave jumps feeling confident that he’s not being targeted, or part of the men’s alliance. Deena looks to her right to see if Roger and Alex (in the #10 and #8 positions) are jumping too. She may feel like she’s the logical target of the men’s alliance. “All eyes are on two women who strip in order to win their favorite food items at a Challenge.” Rob probably offers to save some of his incentive food for Heidi and Jenna, in exchange for a little peek… “VO: A Survivor surprise that's gonna blow the whole game... Jenna: Heidi you wanna do it? VO: ...wide open. Butch: I'm not looking! JP: And it all comes off at the Immunity Challenge. Jenna: Heidi do you wanna pull your pants down? Butch: Oh God, I'm not looking. Alex: Oh I'm looking. Are you kidding? Butch: Oh my God.” Alex, Butch and Roger are featured in the vidcaps. They’ve probably gotten wind of Matthew and Rob’s alliance with the women and feel vulnerable, so they want immunity more than the others. Roger appears to be taking a victory dive into the water after outlasting the rest of the tribe…(or regaining his balance after a close call) In either case, this comment indicates that he probably wins Immunity... “Roger: It's too good to be true.” Roger, with hat removed, but challenge buff still around his neck (his shirt appears to still be wet and the late afternoon sun is low in the sky, casting long shadows), comments on what it feels like to have won Immunity… “Deena: Some boys are gonna be sweating.” Deena in a confessional after the IC, commenting on who should be worried at TC. She uses the term “boys” rather than “guys” or “men”. This could be because Roger is now safe, having won immunity and Butch is safe because Christy will only vote with the girls if they target someone other than Butch. The “boys” that “are gonna be sweating” at TC are those who are not aligned with the women…Dave and Alex TRIBAL COUNCIL The suspense building up to TC will feature several targets: Roger is edited as “obnoxious and bossy”; targeted by Alex and Deena early on after the merge, until immunity saves him… Roger, with the security of Immunity, “thinks he controls the game” and can vote out Deena, the strong leader of the women. Rob, who has an alliance with Deena and company, “vows to target the suave tribe member”.(Dave) Behind the scenes Alex becomes the alternate target after Roger wins immunity. Alex wasn’t a part of the voting block last week and is now a threat to reunite with the men. Alex chose Shawna over Jenna, so Jenna has no loyalty to him. Christy will go along with Deena as long as Butch is not the target. Alex voted for Matthew, so Matthew is happy to return the favor. Rob will go along as long as Dave and Roger are not too far behind… The “distraught Alex” is reunited with Shawna and they live happily ever after… Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology Survivorerist 03-23-03 1  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology munson 03-23-03 2  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology ejm92 03-23-03 3  Dave or Alex? mavsfan 03-24-03 4  Why Alex before Dave? VanQ1 03-24-03 5    RE: Why Alex before Dave? Krautboy 03-24-03 6    RE: Why Alex before Dave? PepeLePew13 03-24-03 7        RE: Why Alex before Dave? Markopolo100 03-24-03 8  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology SurvivinDawg 03-24-03 9    RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology VerucaSalt 03-24-03 10        RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology SurvivinDawg 03-24-03 11  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology FSUGUY 03-24-03 12  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology munson 03-24-03 13    RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology DoodleBug 03-24-03 14  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology dabo 03-24-03 15  RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology forehead 03-24-03 16

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Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 03-23-03, 10:07 PM (EST) 1. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" Krautboy, I have heard a million times that you are an extraordinary spoiler, but I have never really seen you in action. Now I have, and I know they're right. You are most definitely amazing. I am just blown away by this amazing analysis. (Another IceCat original ) The Top 5 FLL Castaways 1. Neleh Dennis (11 weeks at #1) 2. Colby Donaldson (5 weeks at #1) 2. Helen Glover (5 weeks at #1) 2. Heidi Strobel (5 weeks at #1) 4. Amber Brkich (4 weeks at #1) 4. Lex Van Den Burghe (4 weeks at #1)   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-23-03, 10:56 PM (EST) 2. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" LAST EDITED ON 03-23-03 AT 10:56 PM (EST) Amazing job, KB! I think we should just re-title this thread "East Coast Spoiler Thread" and move on to spoiling Episode 8...   Top

ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-23-03, 11:00 PM (EST) 3. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" Now that's what I call spoilin'!!!!! Everything seems carefully analyzed, let's just hope that CBS doesn't insert some crazy new vidcaps to screw everything up....sounds like a perfect episode at the moment. Survior 5 Anti-Bootee Champion   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-24-03, 00:07 AM (EST) 4. "Dave or Alex?" I agree the choice is between Roger/Dave/Alex. And if Roger win's immunity, that of course only leaves Dave/Alex. Thinking Deena needs Rob more than he needs her, she'll vote against which ever guy Rob targets. I think Rob is more likely to target Dave than Alex for the following reasons: 1) Dave insulted Rob by not selecting him at the swap. 2) Rob thinks he's been able to manipulate Alex in the past, so he's got the upper hand in that relationship. 3) Daves a "Rocket Scientist" and Rob would like to prove he's smarter than Dave. I know there are spoilers about Alex and Shawna having a relationship after the show, but I also think the ground work has already been laid for that relationship post SURVIVOR.   Top

VanQ1 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-24-03, 00:32 AM (EST) 5. "Why Alex before Dave?" LAST EDITED ON 03-24-03 AT 00:38 AM (EST) Amazing work Krautboy! Well done,thank you! One thing that concerns me though, why target Alex before Dave? I know we have all the information about Alex and Shawna dating, and speculation that he joins her in LL. However, it would make more sense to me to vote out the biggest threat as soon as possible. And to me that biggest threat would be Dave. He is the bigger threat because he is obviously in deep alliance with Butch and Roger, as well as a huge physical threat in the immunity challenges. From the new Jabaurus perspective, what might be in doubt is Alex's alignment, he may swing with the women and his new tribe since Dave did not pick him to stay at Tambaqui. Furthermore, Rob and Matthew have already indicated their willingness to vote out Dave, and I think Deena would rather vote out someone from Tambaqui, than her new Jabaru team mate Alex. The only way that I can see Deena, Rob and Matthew being persuaded away from voting out Dave, would be if Heidi in rejoining the women, said she would NOT vote for Dave, and maybe has Jenna on her side in that respect. Dave might be the puppetmaster at work here too, persuading the girls to talk to Deena about voting for Alex. (that would be so cool to see Dave work them, in contrast to how they have said that they will work the boys with their 'wares')   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-24-03, 01:29 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Why Alex before Dave?" VanQ1 and Mavsfan, In addition to the misdirection clues, there are several external spoilers that also indicate Alex does not make the jury: 1.KillerDanaH reported Shawna would be voted out pre-jury and that Shawna and Alex were together at "the resort" (Since the jury has been reported to be sequestered on a luxury yacht, Alex must go pre-jury). 2.Boston Guy 1 reported Alex being voted out by Rob, Heidi and/or Jenna after the "switch". 3.TDT reported receiving a tip, apparently from a reliable source, that Alex goes pre-jury. 4.Reports that Shawna and Alex are still dating also supports them continuing their relationship at the lodge. Krautboy   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-03, 05:05 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Why Alex before Dave?" >Furthermore, Rob and Matthew have already >indicated their willingness to vote out Dave, >and I think Deena would rather vote out someone >from Tambaqui, than her new Jabaru team mate >Alex. Could you refresh me on where Matthew indicated that he would be willing to vote out Dave? Rob, yes, I can understand him having a bias against Dave. I think Dave is safe because Jenna will want to keep him around and Heidi/Christy would probably support Dave after getting to know him in newTambaqui, also Rob is probably the one doing the enticing during the strip-o-rama in IC, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he cooperated with J/H/C/others in the vote. So, Alex is my call here at the moment. Excellent work with organizing the vidcaps, Krautboy! I couldn't have put it all together any better than that and it has helped solidify my thinking as to who would be the boot this week -- be interesting to see what promos come up in the next couple of days and the Early Show preview, how they influence the thinking leading up to the show. "When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."   Top

Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-24-03, 07:38 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Why Alex before Dave?" Krautboy, excellent analysis as always.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-03, 07:46 AM (EST) 9. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" KB, I agree with everything you said, and only have this to add: Roger is edited as a vulnerable target in an attempt to direct our attention away from considering Alex. Not only this, but he's being edited this way to show why he gets the boot next show (8th place, first jury memmber). They're building the Roger "story arc" even as they use him for misdirection this time. I also have thought for some time that Roger would (and must) win immunity here in order to be saved. Very reminiscent of Keith in S-2. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-24-03, 08:26 AM (EST) 10. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" SD,bingo! My thoughts exactly. Regardless of the chronology, Roger was a huge target from the get go. His bossy nature has not changed, it was more than likely "softened" while the women were there. That attitude won't bode well at all. This is something I said from his bio. The ONLY reason why we aren't picking Roger this week is because we have the luxury of knowing the spoiler information that ChillOne and others gave us. So in effect as you stated winning IC was his only option. While I agree with what most of you are saying that the information as we have it says Alex goes, I agree that Dave is as much if not worse of a target here. More than likely the women have more of a hand in Alex going than Dave because Rob wants Dave gone, period. And Pepe, I recall Rob stating something to Matthew about getting rid of Dave when they merged or what have you and Matthew agreed with him so maybe that is where that is coming from.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-03, 08:58 AM (EST) 11. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" Well, Jeanne made it clear in one of her chats or interviews: she wondered out loud why they weren't showing Roger's bossiness. She suggested that he was really bossy while the women WERE there (i.e. it wasn't softened). As to Dave... it's a matter of target size and threat size. Alex is an immunity threat, and has no alliances. Dave has something of a group with Roger/Butch, and maybe Christy, but not much. So I suspect that Alex and Roger are bigger targets. But Dave's time is a'coming. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

FSUGUY 447 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-24-03, 10:46 AM (EST) 12. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" This is great. I got it down. just like last week. so, who will Snewser pick to mess everybody up this week? I switched to Shawna late last week. I'm at 80 % alex, 20 % dave.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-24-03, 11:11 AM (EST) 13. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" Another benefit is that by targeting Alex instead of Dave at merge, Rob/Matt can hide their defection from the old Tamb alliance for three more days. 1. Alex voted against Matt and can't be trusted. 2. The men have a 6-4 advantage and can afford to sacrifice Alex (as Boran did with Clarence) and maintain their majority. An easy sell and keeps the peace for the next few days before the new alliance is outed in E8. Rob knows enough about the game to understand you never tip your hand too early - see the Rotu 4.   Top

DoodleBug 5133 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-03, 12:53 PM (EST) 14. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" LAST EDITED ON 03-24-03 AT 01:47 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 03-24-03 AT 12:54 PM (EST) This is EXCELLENT! I'm totally buying into this. Great work! I also want to add that by voting off a guy, the title of Ep 8 makes more sense... sleeping with the enemy. The alliances come out during TC when an unlikely candidate is voted off... ie Alex. Now the guys (ie Roger and Dave) don't feel safe because obviously they (the girls) needed a guy's vote (or more than one guy's vote) to vote a guy off. Edited: Maybe Roger the military man makes the comment.. I feel like I'm sleeping with the enemy. Hmmmmm.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-03, 02:06 PM (EST) 15. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" ”VO: One castaway thinks he controls the game.” ”VO: Is he living a fantasy?” ”Deena: They think that we are so stupid." I'm beginning to wonder if the "controller" might be Rob. Granted, Roger is take-charge in camp and may be the one being mentioned because of that, but his game seems more about picking a target than marshalling forces. Deena has now had some exposure to Rob's manipulations and could come to view him as a threat because of that, and her game is all about eliminating perceived threats. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-24-03, 10:32 PM (EST) 16. "RE: EP7 Vidcap Chronology" Awesome KB! I was still thinking of different scenarios until you came up with shadows and interpretations for Deena's comments. forehead -- loves it when the sun plays a role in vidcaps.   Top

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