Here's a wild scenario (assuming a regular merge):

Deena/Jenna recruit Heidi back to their original allience. No big deal, Heidi knows she's the lowest at the new Tambaqui and she and Jenna are really tight. Rob/Matt join the girls knowing that they are the two lowest on the old Tambaqui totem pole. Thus forms a 5 block, or the Block of Five.

At this point Alex is key. The Block of Five must prevent him from going back to old Tambaqui and creating a 5-5 deadlock. But how, he must feel like an outsider after the Shawna vote at new Jaburu.

The key is understanding is relationship with Roger. We have seen him vote with Roger to boot Ryan and Dan. However, we have also seen Roger and Alex argue over homosexuality.

Here's where Rob comes in by playing both sides. I think Rob goes to Roger/Dave and says that Matt and he are solidly back with old Tambaqi. He plays on the trust factor and that Alex voted against Matt at the last TC. At the same time Rob plays on Alex's feelings for Roger and tells him that they are all targeting Roger. In Rob's finest hour, he convinces Alex to stay with old Jaburu.

Strategically the Block of Five (D/J/H/Rob/M) decides that Alex poses a larger individual immunity threat than Roger (and based on the rolling log performance, that's probably true) and so they target Alex. If Alex wins immunity, they fall back on Roger.

The Block of Four (Roger/Dave/Butch/Christy) is convinced by Rob that he and Matt are back with old Tambaqi and so they don't even bother to recruit Alex back, they think they have a 6-4 edge already.

At TC, the Block of Five controls the vote and decides whom they want to toss. Alex thinks it's Roger, however the Bo5 decides that Alex is a bigger threat both for individual immunity and future defection back to R/D/B. Therefore, the vote goes:

Bo5 - Alex
Bo4 - One of D/J/H
Alex - Roger

Alex goes and the Bo5 are in command! BTW, Alex is shocked but happy to meeting up with Shawna in LL.

Any thoughts?

Have a great day!