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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-19-03, 08:03 PM (EST) "Post - Merge Alliances?" LAST EDITED ON 03-19-03 AT 08:05 PM (EST) Assuming Alex goes after Shawna, what are the dynamics that would lead us to a final four of Christy, Butch, Jenna, and Matthew? Alex would most likely have reunited with the men of Tambaqui if a real merge occurred in EP7, so we are probably looking at a false merge until EP8... Jaburu Women Reunite? EP9 would give the men an advantage if they stuck together, but since we have no weight loss information for Dave or Roger, something must happen to cause their demise. Heidi +++ Jenna ++ Deena + Christy +(Rob or Matthew) vs Dave ++ Roger +++ Butch + (Rob or Matthew) Jenna and Heidi: The Feather Alliance? Deena and Christy may reunite. Heidi and Jenna have a bond and would reunite. And the alliance between Deena and Jenna could pull the women back together. Rob or Matthew aligning with the women would be enough to oust Roger or Dave. (Christy probably protect Butch) Butch and Christy: The Roger/Liz Alliance? Butch and Christy appear to have the traditional father/daughter alliance we see in each survivor, so it would be easy for Butch to align with Christy and the other women to oust Deena or Rob next. Matthew + Butch +++Christy ++Jenna +++ Heidi + (Rob or Deena) vs (Deena or Rob) Alliance's Betrayed? The Milkshaky spoiler tells us that Heidi goes next at S6, possibly the victim of Rob’s two-faced strategy. Rob’s betrayal of Heidi comes back to bite him, when he gets voted out at S5, leaving us with the ChillOne F4. How does Matthew survive? Hidden alliance? Immunity run? Adaptability? Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Post - Merge Alliances? Booted 03-19-03 1  RE: Post - Merge Alliances? I_AM_HE 03-19-03 2    RE: Post - Merge Alliances? ulalame 03-20-03 8        RE: Post - Merge Alliances? JohnMc 03-20-03 15    RE: Post - Merge Alliances? SurvivinDawg 03-20-03 9        RE: Post - Merge Alliances? Krautboy 03-20-03 10            RE: Post - Merge Alliances? SurvivinDawg 03-20-03 11  RE: Post - Merge Alliances? Kokoro 03-19-03 3    RE: Post - Merge Alliances? Bebo 03-20-03 4        RE: Post - Merge Alliances? GuessItRains 03-20-03 6  RE: Post - Merge Alliances? samboohoo 03-20-03 5  RE: Post - Merge Alliances? SurvivinDawg 03-20-03 7    RE: Post - Merge Alliances? VerucaSalt 03-20-03 13  How Alex goes cowboyroo 03-20-03 12    RE: How Alex goes Cathy the Canadian 03-24-03 16  Heidi's screw up cowboyroo 03-20-03 14  RE: Post - Merge Alliances? survivornmolekook 03-26-03 17

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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-19-03, 08:20 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" Krautboy: How does Matthew survive? Hidden alliance? Immunity run? Adaptability? If I recall correctly JP said something about the key to someone doing well this show was adaptability. As I recall Matthew and Christy were the ones most discussed as being able to adapt. That could explain it. Boot Ed   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-03, 09:28 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" seems to me that Deena/Rob/Jenna/Matthew and likely Heidi switching back over can dictate the next couple votes until another shift in alliances occurs. If the new Tambaqui and Jaburu are as tight as they appear, Jaburu minus Alex should have no trouble convincing new Tambaqui to vote out Alex, with Heidi being the likely go-between. I wouldn't be surprised at a 9-1 vote against Alex at TC 7 (or possibly 8-2 with Mr. Integrity Dave not going against Alex) After that D/R/J/H/M have numbers and can boot Dave and Roger. However, then we'd need some kind of shake-up in that group of 5- perhaps Rob stirs up too much trouble and gets booted like his namesake. At the same time, Heidi would probably be a target of Butch and Christy for stabbing them in the back, and Matt is clearly the outsider in the Fab 5. However, either is more than capable of pulling out an immunity or two when their butts are on the fire. And Butch and Christy are likeable ala Rodger and Liz, and may be kept around. So let's say they boot Rob because he's too unpredictable. That would leave us with Deena, Heidi, Jenna, Matthew, Butch, Christy. Matt realizes he's an outsider, and switches sides (and possibly wins immunity). I've heard various reports that Heidi gets 5th place or 6th place - 6th seems most popular, so lets say we have a tie between Heidi and Matt/Butch/Christy, and due to a tie breaker or purple rock Heidi gets the boot. Then Matt/Butch/Christy boot Deena as the biggest threat. Jenna would have to inexplicably win immunity at F4 (and probably F3, unless we have a hidden Matt/Jenna alliance), unless Matt switches AGAIN and forces another tie, realizing Butch and Christy have too strong a bond to risk in the F3. So - Jenna wins F4 immunity, and Christy goes, with B/C voting Matt and Jenna voting against the strong pair to force a tie. Matt or Jenna wins F3 IC and takes the other to the jury vote.   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-20-03, 11:26 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" I think this is a very likely scenario. From the pole-standing preview, it really seems like this is a true merge and individual immunity, unless EPM has something un-thought-of up his sleeve. The two girls taking off their tops are Heidi and Jenna who are on opposing teams, so unless they are both attempting to use the same strategy to distract the men of the opposite side, it seems like it's for an individual reward. (As a "devil's advocate" let me throw in here that last season, there was the snorking challenge, which involved individual stamina but was for a team reward, so it is possible this is still a team challenge.) For now, I'm assuming it's a merge, though. Although Heidi has been giving lip service to being part of the "team" she is now on, she has already confessed to Dave at least that she had an alliance with the girls on the other team. Heidi must know that in the Dave/Butch/Roger alliance, she's now at best final 5, as Christy has won their hearts and if it got down to the New-Tambaquis being in the F5, they'd keep Christy over Heidi. So, the smart move for Heidi is to re-team up with Deena and Jenna, who I think have a decent alliance with Matteo and Rob. Matt & Rob are in the same boat as Heidi -- if they were to swing back to the men's team, they would at best be 4th and 5th, and more likely 5th and 6th, to Butch/Roger/Dave/Alex. They have a better chance to make it further with the chicks, as the alliance is more fluid, plus I think that Deena would side with the boys over the young hot chicks in the final 5. Looks to me like Alex will go this episode, whether it's a faux merge (Tambaqui wins immunity again, and Deena/Jenna/Matteo/Rob vote out Alex) or a true merge (Heidi teams up with Deena/Jenna/Matteo/Rob to vote out Alex). However, I think we should make sure to consider all options this week, including that there is no merge, and Jaburu goes back to TC. Given the pre-season spoilers, I think Dave would be booted. Roger and Butch in particular seem really taken with Christy. That makes three right there. Only thing I don't get would be why they would take out Dave over Heidi. Any thoughts?   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-20-03, 01:30 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" <<The two girls taking off their tops are Heidi and Jenna who are on opposing teams, so unless they are both attempting to use the same strategy to distract the men of the opposite side, it seems like it's for an individual reward.>> Though this may be a strategy the two of them plotted from day 1 (until their plans were foiled by the unisex teams), this is foolish. It may work on Dave and Alex, maybe Matt (maybe not Matt), it definitely won't work on Butch and Roger. They'll look but I suspect they've had enough women try to distract them in their lives that they won't touch. They understand how manipulating some women can be and will look right past their ploy. <<Although Heidi has been giving lip service to being part of the "team" she is now on, she has already confessed to Dave at least that she had an alliance with the girls on the other team.>> Heidi will go back to her old alliance, definitely. But as you stated, Matt doesn't necessarily have any loyalties to his new tribe either. Matt and Christy seem to have been served best by the swap, and they are also adapting better than many players ever have. We don't really have the "team" alliances that we've had on other versions. We have lots of little 2 and 3 person "mini-teams", and what is going to make this season fun is watching those baby groups fight and in-fight and figure out which group, and which individual, will ultimately rise above the rest.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-20-03, 11:37 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" Your scenario believes what I believe: That Rob is in 7th place and Deena in 5th place, as opposed to KB's original hypothesis of Rob in 5th. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-20-03, 11:54 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" You may be right Dawg, I was just factoring some "bad spoilers" that are floating around that have Deena leaving early for the jury...her weight loss was significant, but beyond the merge it becomes less telling... Krautboy   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-20-03, 12:15 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" And you, KB, may be right that Deena DOES go 7th... it's just that after hashing out everything (see my below big post), there are a lot of really strange points that have to be adequately discussed. I think the one bottom line that we can count on is this: Survivor players almost never seem to do what we, the spoiling audience, sees as logical and good gameplay. I know that I tend to forget this and get way too "logical" at times. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-19-03, 09:54 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" It's too bad that it looks like a merge is coming next week, because a non-merge would explain Alex's demise perfectly. But another way of laying the path was described by Rob - Him and Matt pretend to join the others, but then take them out with the girls. Of course then we come back to the problem of revealed strategies usually failing.... ----------------------------------- "This isn't a story about how good triumphs. Good people are going to die." - BTVS   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-20-03, 08:59 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" >It's too bad that it looks like a merge is coming >next week, because a non-merge would explain Alex's demise perfectly. It's pretty straightforward with a merge too. We have the 4 votes from New Jabaru, and Heidi gives them one more. Since the women are down 6-4, Heidi could work on Christy to vote with them to get rid of the strongest IC threat and even up the gender balance a bit more. A Bebodacious American   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-20-03, 09:57 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" Five united votes by the Boobie Alliance and the Testosterone Duo might even be enough as long as Alex/Dave/Roger/Butch/Christy don't vote as a unified team. I could see either Christy or Dave pulling an independent streak, Heidi persuading Christy to rejoin the Boobie alliance, or Rob selling the Tambaqui men (minus perhaps Butch) on a vote against Christy. And even with a tie there would be a 50/50 shot of Alex going if we don't return to the days of purple rock.   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-20-03, 09:24 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" Still trying to sort it all out but a couple of things I've thought of: Christy clearly does not like Jenna. She was all too happy last night when she took her down and made comments about it later on. And I even saw Heidi pat Christy on the back at that point, kind of supporting her. But I do think that Heidi will definately run back to Jenna. Also, maybe a little foreshadowing of Deena's demise (a la Helen in Thailand -- Helen's husband stated that Helen didn't come out here to finish 3rd, then she doesn't make it that far). We had Deena saying she would allign with the younger girls because she'd be able to manipulate them later. Well now that the girls are using their bodies to woo the guys, maybe Jenna and Heidi will take out Deena. Just a thought.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-20-03, 11:18 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" LAST EDITED ON 03-20-03 AT 12:16 PM (EST) Dawg, why are you even thinking of this stuff? I dunno, maybe my brain wants something to do while thinking of my computer programming in the "background" and giving me some solutions there. Weird Dawg brain pyschology and physiology, perhaps... or maybe I'm just bored today and am distracting myself... I just went through a ton of scenarios in my head, assuming that the order is correct (final four C/B/M/J, Rob 5th, Heidi 6th). Quite frankly, nothing works very well, and involves a LOT of betrayals. These things, though, I think are true: 1) Matt has an immunity run, a'la Colby. This is the only way I see him in the Final 4. 2) I really think Rob is more likely to go 7th, and Deena 5th. That makes more sense than the other way around... but for this scenario, we'll think about things... 3) Somebody at some point in time gets a rock. VERY likely it's Christy in the Final Four vote (2 against 2). But it is also very possible that Heidi goes because of a tie, while she expected Rob to vote with her. Okay, with that in mind, here is what I see. a) I won't go into WHY Alex goes pre-jury and 10th place. Maybe he quits, maybe he asks them to wax him, maybe everyone waxes him a'la Brandon and Zoe. b) Alliances we can pretty much count on: Jenna/Heidi. Christy/Butch (they have SO bonded)... c) ...which leaves a discussion of the girls getting back together. Let's say Deena sticks with them to a point. Let's also say that Deena and Matt continue their alliance for now. And I've always suspected Deena and Christy get along well. So all the girls might be reforming a group. So much for not pagonging, eh Burnett? c) It's not being shown, and Jeanne openly wondered why in her chat, but Roger is bossy and unpopular. Maybe Christy and Butch vote with him, but he's definitely out 6-3 or more. d) Dave drew Jenna's ire by taking Heidi in the tribe re-shuffle. Heidi may feel that Dave led her astray in voting for Jeanne, AND Heidi was shown to feel slighted by Dave/Butch/Roger in Ep. 6, leaving Heidi with Christy (horrors!) Rob may think Dave is too smooth and suave. Dave and Matt were on opposite sides in the early going (Matt with Ryan and Daniel, Dave going with Roger/Butch). Deena doesn't know Dave at all. So we now have: Heidi/Jenna/Deena/Matt/Rob and who knows what Christy/Butch will do, probably go along. At least 5-3 for Dave, much more likely 7-1. e) Now we come to Deena, and I have a hard time with this. Clearly Rob must at this point convince Heidi/Jenna to abandon Deena, or else the theory that Rob betrays Heidi would not be an issue! That leaves Christy, Butch and Matt (see why Matt has to win a lot of ICs?) We have Heidi/Jenna/Rob. We have Christy/Butch. We have Matt and Deena. And Christy, Butch, Matt and Deena cannot vote for the same person. So one of two scenarios happen: Matt and Deena are told by Rob that H/J/R are voting for, say, Christy. Christy and Butch either vote for Deena with Rob, or believe him in some way that everyone else is voting for Heidi or Jenna. OR H/J/R/M abandon Deena. 3-2-2 at least, likely 4-2-1, possibly 5-2. Deena never saw it coming. f) Okay, Heidi and Jenna are expecting Rob to vote with them. In scenario 1 above, Matt would feel betrayed by Rob, and would ally with C/R. Rob would then switch sides and vote out Heidi, 4-2. In Scenario 2 above, Matt sticks with Heidi/Jenna, but Rob doesn't. The rocks come out and Heidi gets the wrong one. At this point, if you have a lot of "WHY?"s for either scenario, I don't blame you. The only thing I can think of: Rob wins immunity here. He then switches sides to force a tie, knowing that HE ALONE is safe. And to think of it, this really isn't a BAD strategy... if he goes along with a majority to vote out Christy, then he's no better than fourth against Matt/Jenna/Heidi. And if Butch or Christy get a rock, he's no worse off than he was before. g) Either way, by now Jenna is furious with Rob. Matt has to be furious with Rob. Christy and Butch at some point either have been told wrong by Rob and also want him out, OR are persuaded by Jenna and Matt. Certainly they don't trust Rob... and so he goes. As I said... a lot of this just doesn't seem to hold up, and because of it, I don't think the boot order is as KB suggests. But y'all see what y'all can do with this. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-20-03, 12:55 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" Sorry long post ahead (what else is new) After last night, I'm not going to assume Alex goes next, in fact I won't assume anything now; if it is a normal merger especially. These people have alliances (cough cough) all over the place. Other spoilers like weight loss IMO is not weighing heavily (excuse the pun) now, they all look like they lost a substantial amount of weight IMO I wouldn't even presume to try to guess the ORDER of who goes but rather who is in more DANGER, IMO. For right now, I'm sticking with ONLY Butch and Christy as the "spoiled" two in the final four scenario; we have not CONCLUSIVELY established that Jenna/Matt are the final two (although I believe they are but a spoiler of a "deaf girl" is in final four is a lot more solid then a "23/24 female who was not attractive but got better looking" and a young guy/muscular with tight haircut) and I pick Butch over Roger because that is like suggesting Lis moved up and not Roger in Australia FOR NOW ASSUMING THIS IS NOW ONE BIG "HAPPY" TRIBE AND BARRING THAT ANY WIN INDIVIDUAL IMMUNITY- PURELY ON THEIR VULNERABILITY BIG YELLOW DANGER SIGN - BRIDGE OUT - Dave. If he doesn't suck it up that Christy is not going to be the next one off over Heidi and get his communication with Roger/Butch clear (he was very confused as to the reason Roger gave Christy for sparing her) he is a man without an alliance. Because over at Jamburu, he has Rob who has got a major you know what to get rid of him and there is NO reason why the women of Jamburu won't follow suit WARNING - HIGH TRAFFIC AREA - Roger. Despite that he has Butch and Christy firm, numbers are numbers and there would be more than enough votes from Jamburu to oust him. With his "bossy" attitude at an "all together" arrangement, people like Rob/Matthew/Deena will froth at the mouth to get him off. YIELD-OTHER DRIVERS Alex and Matthew. Matthew is a perfect goat right now and while it is CLEAR he would be a threat (and the fact that was stated makes me sure that he does do well in individual immunities) Rob especially knows that he DOESN'T have Dave/Butch/Roger so Matthew is a good vote with him BUT Rob appears he is hanging his hat along with Deena and the girls so Matthew after this or next episode will probably be a boot candidate BUT as stated he will no doubt screw that plan up by winning an immunity. Alex OTOH had an alliance with Rob per Rob (well we'll see...) and Alex also would like Matthew to go BUT Alex showed his interest in Shawna screwed up some of his priorities as evidenced by his vote for Matthew and both Rob and Deena would rather have a goat then someone who votes for their own personal reasons over their reasons. DETOUR Heidi. Her potential for danger will be coming at some point but for right now she will eagerly meet up with Deena/Jenna to rejoin her group. The fact that Deena and Rob enlisted each other for assistance and their thought process tells me a MAN is more in danger now then a female. Considering that Deena READILY told Rob she has Heidi/Jenna things should be considerably safe for her re-joining her original alliance PROCEED WITH CAUTION Rob and Deena who seem like they have the tribe by it's ass only means one thing; too much zooming comes back to zoom you. They are cut from the same cloth and have the same goal in mind and have people who are willing to listen to their strategy - good. Deena has the worry of not winning an II when she needs it and there is no reason for Dave, Roger, Butch or Christy to listen to her. Now she has her J/H girls and appears Rob along with Matt and Alex are going to move in the same direction but she really only KNOWS for sure J/H. Alex, Rob and Matt can easily cut her throat. What to make of Rob? Rob has Matthew and Alex and is working with Deena. My guess is that Rob is going to be in danger BECAUSE he opened his mouth and inserted a large foot in it (coming back to bite him) His danger will be more about his own words/actions screwing him as opposed to his surface vulnerabiliy. NEW CONSTRUCTION Smooth ride for Butchy/Christy, the only worries they may have is along the lines of II. If someone else wins it and they are down the pike, someone has to go. These two will have a nice path to drive down because all the bumps are going to be caused by the other drivers; there is no reason to even THINK about them right now there is going to be so much more happening but again a crucial immunity win by someone else will no doubt cause one or both to go at some point because FINALLY someone will say Whoooaa, these people ARE a threat b/c they are so damned nice, a jury would vote for them! AVOID TRAFFIC - TAKE THE TUNNEL Jenna. When in doubt about using all the congested roads, take the tunnel. Jenna can do amazingly well right now. She has Deena directing the route and Heidi coming back on the road for their threesome. Others such as Dave, Roger, Alex, Matthew are much more of a hazard to drivers. And since Jenna's likeability or sympathy factor is not as great as Christy/Butch's someone would probably opt more to keep her over a more threatening player either physically or emotionally. Her biggest problem is driving in the tunnel without your lights on! Deena and Heidi have been directing the traffic thus far so Jenna needs to turn on her lights IN THE EVENT those she has been following crash.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-20-03, 12:32 PM (EST) 12. "How Alex goes" Jabaru is now Alex, Matt, Deena, Jenna, Rob Tambaqui is Christy, Heidi, Butch, Rodger, Dave Matt and Rob let the rest of the gang know that Alex voted against Matt. Alex is an IC threat. Heidi pretends to be with the new Tambaqui and lets Deena know Alex is being targeted. Rob lets Alex thinks Jabaru is voting for someone else say Rodger. Other 4 Jabaru say vote Dave. Ep. 8, Heidi switches back to Jabaru unsuspiciously and we lose Alex 5-4-1. Then Dave or Roger can get targeted Ep. 8. I believe Butch/Christy/Roger will stick together. I think Matthew survives by laying back and let all the feuding go on. It appears that there will be a lot of scheming and the schemers will become targets...   Top

Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-24-03, 08:56 PM (EST) 16. "RE: How Alex goes" The best argument I've read for Alex so far - and it wasn't 15 paragraphs long - well done cowboyroo!   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-20-03, 01:05 PM (EST) 14. "Heidi's screw up" There's been a lot of talk that Heidi did the right thing by voting against Jeanne, but what she lost by doing that is Christy's trust who Deena/Jenna were couting on as part of their alliance. Heidi should have included Christy in on the decision to vote off Jeanne. Christy will be voting with Butch/Roger and probably Dave in the future. With the 4 women together, Rob probably would have permanently aligned with them. Jenna/Heidi as a twosome. Deena/Rob as a twosome and Christy along for the ride. Rob is going to keep trying to vote with the majority, but will not be able to get into the lower numbers within a majority now.   Top

survivornmolekook 37 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-26-03, 05:49 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Post - Merge Alliances?" what is deena christy rob butch and rodger go together? this is a posibility and i'm crossing my fingers for it rob and deena made an alliance last episode. christy is close with butch and rodger. if those two alliances can come together they could do well   Top

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