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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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It's generally speculated that SHAWNA and ALEX are the final two pre-jury boots. Among the strong supporting evidence for this is the fact that Tambaqui dynamics make it clear the Christy and Heidi would be the next likely Tambaqui bootees yet there's multiple rumors that both of them last significantly longer into the game -- which means for that to happen, either the Tambaqui men turn among themselves (unlikely) or they don't happen to go back to the Tribal Council before the merge (more likely.)

If we assume the later scenario is true (and by now we're all familar with the problems with making any assumptions in this game, however not only does it remain the best resource available to us, but all the available vidcap evidence also supports that happening this week) then it would seem the Jaburu folks are going to be taking that long walk during the next couple of episodes.

TAMBAQUI wins the Immunity Challenge, and based on vidcaps and episode descriptions they also seem to win the Reward Challenge.

Looking at the Jaburu dynamics, the following seem clear:

- Much like Jeanne did in Jaburu, Matthew clearly felt he was an outsider in the old Tambaqui tribe. As such he is less likely to have any loyalty to Alex and Rob -- particualrly if he and Alex are competing for the affections of the same girl.

- Deena clearly is considered about Shawna's relationship with Alex and it's effect on her purported Shawna/Jenna/Deena alliance

- Rob seems fiercely jealous of other men in general and particularly of the fact that Alex seems to be hitting it off with Shawna.

- Any player in this tribe should be concerned with the "Power Of Two" Big Brother-style "Couple Alliance" power that comes from romanticly involved game players

All these situations point toward both Shawna and Alex being the prime targets of Jaburu unrest. The open question remains which one goes first... does Deena lead an alliance with Rob or a scorned Matthew to vote off Alex? Do Rob or Matthew decide they've had enough with Shawna fawning over Alex instead of them and convince Deena or Jenna to vote her out of the game? Does Deena tire of having Shawna as an unstable/unreliable alliance member and decide she's better off taking her chances with the men? Does a jealous Jenna decide that having Matthew and Alex fawn over Shawna instead of her is the final straw for Shawna? And how will the likely fact that neither Alex or Shawna will refuse to vote for each other complicate the scheming of all their fellow alliance-mates?

Clearly this one is a bit of of toss-up. Logically, a boot order of Alex then Shawna would seem to be a bit more likely, but as he's demonstrated before, SurvivorNews appears to have a source on this information, and as of this afternoon he's announced a SHAWNA booting, therefore with all other things being pretty much equal, SHAWNA gets the edge as our bootee prediction (with ALEX remaining as the alternate.)

-SB