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Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-14-03, 10:42 PM (EST) "Possible delayed merge" This is an interview JP had with UGO. Since we are getting closer to the traditional merge time I thought this article may be worth discussing as there is possible information on the merge (or non-merge) as well as possible tribal alliances. http://www.ugo.com/channels/filmTv/features/jeffprobst/ "What surprises me most is the same thing that has surprised me from the beginning. The thing that surprises me is the thing I have come to believe most about human nature: You cannot change who you are. You can have a situation where a certain person is in the driver's seat, and all they have to do to get to the final two is to just not drive the car off the road, and you show up at a challenge or tribal council and before you know it, they are turning so hard to the right they're in the ditch, they are past the detour sign, they are so far past go that you can't even get them back. And you think, how did this happen? Well, it happened because they can't change who they are, and either an event happened that caused them to react, or something was said at tribal council and before you know it, they are sticking their foot so far down their throat that it's lodged forever. That was a long kind of meandering analogy. The thing that surprises me is that nothing is for certain. We will sit there and say, "OK, it looks like it's these five against these three, and it's going to be a numbers game," and then you show up and, all of a sudden, it's a big shift; we are now at four vs. four. Well, so and so said something to such and such and now they are mad at each other and they are going to switch tribes and the other guy doesn't know it. And you're going, "Oh my God, how did this happen? They are screwing up their whole game." But you can't change their nature." Things to take note of .. 'five against these three' - This would be E9 'switch tribes' ?? - JP should have said 'alliances'? Could there not be a traditional merge. Perhaps two tribes living in the same camp. It worked great last season so why not extend the duration. Dave's statement to Heidi - 'We want to bring you with us into the merge'. (Strategies revealed do not succeed) 'other guy' - To me this sounds like this situation is about 2 men ... perhaps Roger and Butch have a disagreement. Please feel free to shoot as many holes in this theory as you wish. JP usually blows a fair bit of smoke during his interviews but they usually include a few 'seeds of truth'.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Possible delayed merge BaquaR13 03-15-03 1    RE: Possible delayed merge Kokoro 03-15-03 2  RE: Possible delayed merge Chez 03-15-03 3  Probstitution big idiot 03-16-03 4    RE: Probstitution big idiot 03-17-03 6  RE: Possible delayed merge KDMaxx 03-16-03 5    RE: Possible delayed merge Brownroach 03-17-03 7        RE: Possible delayed merge Chez 03-17-03 8

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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-15-03, 02:03 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Possible delayed merge" As discussed in another thread i think this would contradict Chill One's prediction. If there is a delayed merge it would mean that Christie (almost certain) will be voted off before the merge. Unless of course, they win every challenge from here on out, which seems unlikely. The Reality Show Queens!! BaQuAr13   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-15-03, 03:03 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Possible delayed merge" Actually from what we know, if the end result of a late merge is 5 vs. 3, it's more likely to be Jaburu that has the minority. Since Shawna looks to go first, it means that two of Alex/Deena/Rob will be gone before the merge happens. I have to add here though, that if we didn't know Heidi stayed much longer, her "cuteness" doesn't have any hold over Butch and Roger. If they lose another one, she's most likely to be next (unless Dave does something ~severely~ stupid) - thus, I don't think they will be having anymore losses. He could also be speaking of a 5-3 male-female majority, but since one of the Jaburu males would have to be betrayed and an alliance broken, Jeff would be stupid to think the men would just stick together and everything would be fine. Of course, this is only ~if~ Jeff is saying anything cohesive, and not just speculating by using a made-up scenario.   Top

Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-15-03, 09:56 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Possible delayed merge" The 5 vs 3 could also refer to men vs women if old alliances rebound after the merge. The term 'other guy' is not meant in a strictly gender sense - could mean either man or woman. It could mean the girls are down 5 to 3 at some point, and a male decides to jump ship (or vice versa).   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-16-03, 06:39 PM (EST) 4. "Probstitution" "Probstitution": The act of making a statement that is scantily clad in details but reveals enough to get me excited, lose rationality and make me want to go all the way with it. And in the end I'll regret it. But until then, I'm jumping on it. So here goes. Probst statement above sounds like something is said at TC in Episode 8, that pisses off somebody resulting in that person jumping from a tribe/alliance of 5 over to a group of 3 in Episode 9 to result in 4 vs 4. This means that the tribe that goes to TC in episode 8 must have 6 members, i.e. this would have to be Jaburu. So this makes it tough to believe the numbers that Jeff is throwing out, because that would mean that Tambaqui goes to TC in Episode 6 and 7. This goes against current interpretations of Tamb winning IC in Episode 6 and Shawna leaving the game early (the earliest she could leave is episode 8, this puts her on the jury.) I'll go ahead and assume Jeff's numbers are correct, although I won't believe in the possibility of the following scenario until after Episode 6 *IF* Tamb goes to TC. Based on weight loss spoilers, Episode 6 and 7 would result in Tamb going to TC and the boot of dave and roger (either order). Episode 8 would result in Jaburu going to TC with someone speaking their mind, this results in pissing off someone on the tribe and the speaker does not make the final two. The way it sounds, I do not believe the speaker is the one being booted. (I believe Deena and Matt are final two, so perhaps Shawna says something about loyalty to Alex over Jenna, pissing Jenna off, and Alex is the one booted) Episode 9: Tribes are 5 to 3. jeff shows up to merge tribes. Jenna is pissed, runs to Heidi's arms. Alliances are now 4 to 4. Jenna blew shot at final two? Jenna may be voted out because of general mistrust or Shawna loses in a tie breaker at TC. Just a scenario that may not be worth considering until after Episode 6, and ONLY if Tamb goes to TC. BI   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-17-03, 10:35 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Probstitution" I've come up with an alternative outcome that still uses Jeff's actual numbers (5 vs 3) and the implications of the quote (the dominant tribe being at TC prior to official merge). There is a problem with a fake merge when there are 10 players (episode 7) followed by a delayed real merge at 8 players (episode 9). The problem occurs in between (in episode 8), there is one tribe at TC and that booted person becomes a member of the jury. That jury member and all future jury members from that tribe have knowledge of what was said at that TC to assist them in their decision, but the members of the other tribe (not at TC) that become future jury members will not know what was said at that TC. I believe that last season this problem was ignored. But perhaps due to production rethinking, juror complaint or just for the drama (ratings) of it - this season has BOTH TRIBES going to TC in episode 8. If so, only one tribe would need backpacks. The evidence for this? 1) The blurry vidcap of the survivors leaving TC without backpacks. 2) Jeff's quote about a possible fake merge, "if we do it again, we spin it slightly in a way that is different for them, as well as for the survivors." So episode 8 could have them all at TC. Jeff, "or something was said at tribal council and before you know it, they are sticking their foot so far down their throat that it's lodged forever" Does this have to be someone from the losing tribe at TC? Not necessarily, the non-voting attendee tribe may be allowed to make comments or expected to answer questions. The bottom line is that anyone could be making that comment in episode 8 at TC, so Jeff's numbers and statements may not help predict which tribe goes to TC in episode 8. Please DO shoot holes in this, it would un-complicate things. just some thoughts, BI   Top

KDMaxx 18 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-16-03, 07:47 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Possible delayed merge" This piece of the interview may also be relavent in relation to a merge: JP: It's that same loyalty. Most people I run into say, "I haven't missed an episode," or, "I rarely miss an episode." But what we figured out is, either you like Survivor or you don't, but if you do, you're a loyal viewer and we respect that, so we want the audience to be satisfied, and so we really do spend an inordinate amount of time saying our audience will hate that. For instance, in Thailand, we did the fake merge. Now the Survivors that were shooting the Amazon did not know that. They did not know; they were already gone when that episode aired, so we had a big question, and the question was, we could pull that big merge again, these guys will never see it coming. Do we do that because we know it will result in great reality, maybe it's worth a lot? But we do have to consider that our audience has already seen it, so if we do it again, we have to know that, for them, this is old news, and make sure that, if we do it again, we spin it slightly in a way that is different for them, as well as for the survivors. I think they will use the Fake merge again this season. the "new spin" is that there has already been a swap prior to the fake merge. This would certainly be an entertaining new twist for the audience and survivors alike! Fake merge at 10....real merge at 8. (I also think the myserty box will play into this...IMO it contains a map to the new location where they will "live together as one tribe."....further comments in the Mystery box thread. Hmmmm...KDMaxx   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-03, 11:39 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Possible delayed merge" LAST EDITED ON 03-17-03 AT 11:40 AM (EST) I strongly believe there will be a fake merge in Ep 7. If you look at how S6 is playing out so far, MB hasn't changed any of the events that occurred in S5; he's just changed when they occurred. At the beginning of S5 the castaways were arranged into "tribes" of men and women, but this turned out to be fakery. Instead, MB had the two eldest players choose mixed-gender tribemates at the outset of the game. For S6, MB used the same basic idea, except this time he did keep the men and women on separate tribes for the first 4 episodes. Then in Ep 5, he had the two youngest players choose mixed-gender tribemates, in the same fashion that Jan and Jake did. Except now the game is already in progress and people already know quite a bit about each other. So this also worked as a mandatory swap. I think the thing MB was most disappointed with about S5 was the voluntary swap that no one was interested in. So he eliminated the possibility of that happening again. We had 4 episodes of two separate-gender tribes. I think for symmetry MB is going to give us 4 episodes of two mixed-gender tribes -- but in Ep 7 he will have the two tribes live together, same as in S5. And in Ep 9 we get the true merge, same as in S5.   Top

Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-17-03, 12:49 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Possible delayed merge" I'm trying to pull together several different ideas on future episodes (after reading all the opinions on this and other threads). 1. I think Alex is the one to go next for various reasons stated elsewhere. 2. Jeff P alluded to a possible situation where there is 5-3 dominance of one team over another. This could mean a false merge at Episode 7 (which I think is likely), and then the same team losing the next 2 ICs, thereby bringing their number down to 3 vs the other team's 5 prior to the merge, which will take place when there are 8 remaining. 3. Who will be this losing team, and who would be voted off if it happens? If Tambaqui loses 2, I think it will be Roger and Dave (in some order). If Jaburu loses 2, I think it will be Shawna and either Jenna or Deena (whichever one is not in the F2). 4. Then we have to ask who would be the likely person Jeff alluded to who sabotages themselves by jumping off the 5-3 majority due to being riled with someone on their own team. If Tambaqui is down to 3 at this point (Butch, Christy and Heidi) my number one guess from Jaburu is Rob as the person who jumps, due to being mad at any of his teammates). But Shawna or Jenna are also possibilities. Not Matt or Deena - they will be cool. If Jaburu is the team that's down to 3, then who on Tambaqui would be so riled at someone on their team that they would jump? No really strong candidate here. Maybe Heidi if Roger is being too bossy. Anyway, that is a lot of speculation. Please feel free to shoot holes.   Top

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