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"Chillone F4 doesn't work"
Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-14-03, 05:32 AM (EST)
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"Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-03 AT 05:34 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-14-03 AT 05:34 AM (EST) OK, everyone seemes convinced. After four boots then Jeanne's boot, after the "tribal swap," We are all sure Chillone is legit. Well, not me. After Ep4, we have mixed up tribes that don't fit the Chillone spoiler AT ALL. Everything contradicts current alliances. My biggest problem is I don't understand HOW Jenna can be in the final four with Christy and Butch. But I will get to that and other problems later. ChillOne has to be WRONG somewhere. Read this over and digest it, then TELL US WHAT YOU THINK. First, let's review what we have: Final 2 Jana and Male large build (Dave or Matt) 3rd Butch/Roger 4th Christy 5th ??? 6th Heidi For simplicity, we'll speculate Alex and Shawna are the next two booted. So we have a Jury that looks like this: Jaburu: Jenna, Matthew, Rob, Deena Tambaqui: Christy, Heidi, Butch, Roger, Dave We know from editing, spoilerage: 1) Heidi and Jenna aligned. Deena, too. 2) Christy and Butch form bond 3) Rob joins women to oust Alex 4) Matthew didn't know how to play the game Significant weight loss Matthew, Butch, Rob, Deena No known significant weight loss Jenna, Dave, Roger As I see it ... Right now I see two alliances 1) Jenna+Heidi+Deena+Rob 2) Christy+Butch+Roger+Dave
These are basically impossible based on Chillone's final four. The problem? I don't understand HOW Jenna can be in the final four with Christy and Butch. They have no chance of being aligned. Other questions: 1) How does Matthew get to the F2? He has no alliance. No one on Tambaqui likes him. I think Dave is a much better choice for the F2. 2) I could see Roger and Dave going after the merge. But then how do Butch and Matthew stay afloat? Makes no sense. 3) Let's say Jenna goes on a miraculous immunity run. Then the F5 could be Jenna and the current Tambaqui alliance -- Christy, Butch, Roger and Dave. Of course, three-fifths of that F5 have no weight loss spoilers. 4) Let's say Matthew/Butch/Christy have an alliance. How does this group get to the F4 by itself? 5) The tightest alliance, Heidi and Jenna, finishes 1st/2nd and sixth? This doesn't seem right. Then again, I never thought Vecepia would win S4 about this time.
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Ahtumbreez 10456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-03, 08:05 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
understand HOW Jenna can be in the final four with Christy and Butch. One word: Immunity Maybe a Colby like run, don't personally see it but stranger things have happened. (c) 2003 GeorgiaBelle Creations,Inc. All rights reserved Celebrity Mole PTTE Champion
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-03, 08:56 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
Let's see how this sceanario plays out:E6 - After being spurned by Shawna for Alex, Matthew allies with Deena and Jenna to target Shawna. Since Rob doesn't want Alex to have the power of a romance alliance at the merge, he goes along to boot Shawna 4-2. E7 - Traditional merge. Supposing BostonGuy is right that Heidi joined the alliance to vote out Alex, it would have to take place post-merge. Given Alex's strength, he would be a logical target for the first post-merge boot. I pick him to go in this spot, since this would be the last chance to stay at LL and kindle that budding romance with Shawna. E8 - Here's where I think Dave goes. Again, he is a challenge threat, and his alliances aren't as strong as he thinks. We already see in the E6 website preview that they are questioning his choice of next boot, and Rob made it clear last ep that he doesn't like Dave having power over him. E9 - At this point, Rob looks like the next vulnerable one. H/D/M/J don't need his vote, and B/R/C won't ally with him. E10 - If Matthew was only temporarily allied with the women to save himself, he could ally with B/R/C to start picking off the women. I think they'd start from strongest to weakest, which would mean Deena goes here.
E11 - Spoilers point to Heidi finishing 6th, which would work since she's the next strongest female other than Christy. E12 - I think Matthew wins immunity here and Roger goes before they boot Jenna. Maybe Jenna, Christy, or Matthew realize that Butch and Roger would be a final 2 and want to split that up. That leads to the final 4 ChillOne speculated. And I could definitely see Jenna ending up in the final 2 with Matthew if he wins final IC, since he would think he'd have a better chance of beating her than Christy or Butch. Total wild speculation here.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-03, 11:09 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
>Bebo, switch Roger and Rob's places >and I'm on board. I was trying to figure out a way to do exactly that, but my brain already hurt. >Of course, this is all assuming >Chill One is legit, but >I still have doubts. Me too. But I just starting playing around to see if there was a reasonable way to get to that scenario, and this crazy plan popped into my head. Does it mean I take CO as gospel? No. But it's still worth thinking about, to see what we can and can't debunk. It seems like this season we're getting some spoilers that aren't exactly right but still give us some useful information from which to start.
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-03, 12:27 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
first, i see no reason to discount COsecond, i like your theory on how things play out Bebo, and its not too hard to imagine a scenario where Rob and Roger are basically switched: Ep 6- Shawna Ep 7- Alex Ep 8- Dave Ep 9- Roger - Heidi/Jenna/Deena/Rob/Matt stick together and vote out the least agreeable member (at least Rob dislikes him, and perhaps Matt, so he'd be the obvious choice to go) Ep 10- Deena or Rob - either the alliance decides they no longer need Rob at this point (a good possibility) or Rob breaks ranks, probably pulling Matt with him to boot one of the core alliance (or H/J/R/M decide to canabilize) Ep 11- Rob/Deena/Heidi - if Rob switches to help boot Heidi, he could well stay with Butch/Christy and boot Heidi, or everyone boots Rob for breaking alliance Ep 12- last of Rob/Heidi/Deena Final 4 of Christy, Butch, Jenna, Matthew
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-14-03, 09:47 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
Wow Bebo! Some nice thinking there.I tend to agree that there's a chance of this being the Final 4, but I have always been somewhat skeptical of Chill One. To borrow from the old Mastermind game, CO got of the first four "Zero right, three in wrong place" (or four if you give him credit for Janet as "woman about thirty" which I refuse to do). If we give him the same credit here, I could easily see him being rather close, but not quite right. As for the boot speculation, it sort of makes sense but doesn't seem consistent with past behavior. People shedding members of majority alliances long before we have to, free agent (and immunity threat) Matthew jumping ship repeatedly but never getting punished for it, and MANY cross-tribal alliances. Far more likely that all of the CO people stick around the next few episodes, yes, but that it all unravels when we get down to the final 6 or so. Just my humble opinion....
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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03-14-03, 11:05 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
As much as I don't like to admit it... did anyone watch Big Brother last season? If they did they'll understand why I think it is completely possible that Jenna can be in the final 2Jenna = Lisa I don't mean that they have the same personality so to speak but see the competition playing out the same way. There may, (like Lisa), be one crucial and ultimate decision for Jenna to make that may compromise her winning and be considered a betrayal (Lisa electing to NOT bring her boyfriend Eric back into the house but ultimately it was that decision that got her to the end but conceivably could have been perceived as a betrayal) but with sooo many other big strong devious alpa personalities and so many jumping alliances, I think Jenna will have some smooth sailing for a good period of time. And like Lisa winning HOH at crucial periods (mind you she didn't have a run of them but a key HOH when she needed it the most - final three with the other two having a pact to go to the end with each other), Jenna may have an IC win at a time where she needs it the most. As far as Matthew, again, he has been shown to hop on the boot wagon inititated by someone else. And as long as he allows people like Roger, Rob, Deena etc. be people who clearly see others as targets or act in a way to be a target along with some immunity wins, he could stand at the end as well. There are so many convulated scenarios that could play out and Bebo did such a fine job that I won't bother.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-03, 11:01 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-03 AT 12:18 PM (EST)This plays out very nicely, Bebo. I was thinking of another possibility (speculation, of course): MB has been playing out the same scenarios as S5, except this time he really did keep the men and women apart for awhile before allowing two people to select their tribemembers. So... Ep 6 -- Jaburu loses IC. Deena and Jenna want to get rid of Alex because Shawna is getting too close to him. Matt is also interested in Shawna (from CBS teaser) and views Alex as a rival. Meanwhile, CO's topless "deal" -- which dovetails with BostonGuy's spoiler -- is made between Rob and Jenna. Jenna promises to go topless if Rob votes along with her, Deena and Matt to get rid of Alex. Rob is happy to oblige. Alex goes out 4-2. Ep. 7 -- we get a fake merge, as in S5. Jaburu loses IC again. By now Deena and Jenna have had it with Shawna, who is again lethargic and pouty with Alex gone, and, fearful of losing the next IC, want to keep both the boys around. Deena, Jenna, Rob all vote Shawna off to LL. Ep 8. Tambaqui loses IC. From the CBS Ep 6 hint that Dave's strategy may not coincide with Roger and Butch's, I think Christy teams up with Roger and Butch here. Possibly Heidi joins their party too. In any case, Dave is first jury member. Ep 9. The tribes merge with 8 left, as in S5. We have Jenna, Matt, Deena, Rob, Butch, Heidi, Christy, and Roger. Heidi gets back with Jenna and Deena (and Rob and Matt). and they vote out Roger. Ep 10. Okay I can't think any further about the logistics at the moment, but either two-timing Rob or immunity threat Deena goes out here. We know Heidi goes in Ep 11 somehow (maybe she is ill and a mercy boot). So whichever is left of Deena and Rob gets the boot in Ep 12. And we are left with CO's final 4. ** Edited because I posted before reading the Ep 6 "Misdirection" teasers, so I revised my thinking and also switched Dave and Roger.
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-14-03, 01:31 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
>Ep 10. Okay I >can't think any further about >the logistics at the moment, >but either two-timing Rob or >immunity threat Deena goes out >here. We know >Heidi goes in Ep 11 >somehow (maybe she is ill >and a mercy boot). >So whichever is left of >Deena and Rob gets the >boot in Ep 12. OK, I'll pick up here. E10: Rob and Matt realize they are in the minority of their 5 person alliance and pull a Pappy/Neleh by joining with Butch and Christy to oust Deena, the strongest member of the other alliance. E11: The newly formed 4 person alliance now takes out the stronger of the two remaining women, Heidi. E12: Jenna persuades Christy/Butch that they should dump Rob/Matt and ally with her. Matt wins immunity so Rob gets the boot. Or alterntively Jenna wins immunity, and Christy/Butch target Rob. E13a: Matt must win immunity, and through purple rock, prior votes or some other mechanism, Christy leaves. E13b: Likable Butch gets the heave-ho from whoever wins immunity. E13c: Final 2 of Matthew and Jenna.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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03-14-03, 06:32 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-15-03 AT 03:02 AM (EST)Throwing in more things that have popped up at one time or another: At this point, I think there has to be a traditional merge. Alex's boot in episode 7 could work without a merge, but something very unexpected would have to happen in episode 8 if they still didn't merge. With no merge, if Tambaqui lost, Heidi would be gone. There's no way Butch and Roger are betraying their team/alliance that early, unless Dave turns into a total jerk, which I don't see happening. The problem is that we know Heidi goes much further than this. If Jaburu went to TC, Matthew would be gone since Rob "helped" get rid of Alex, he would now be aligned with Jenna and by extension, Deena. There's really no reason for a betrayal on this team either. The one thing that could happen is a tie as mentioned here. It looks set to happen but I don't think this is the right place for it. More than likely, we'll only see a tie come final four time, when there's no other option, but I could be wrong. But anyhow, I'll go through both scenarios. ****1**** 6.) Shawna goes here because her and Alex are the only two candidates and Alex has to be around to get screwed by Rob in episode 7. False-Merge 7.) Alex goes in episode seven due to Heidi and Jenna reaffirming their bond and then working Rob and promising him a spot in their alliance. Rob joins Deena and Jenna in voting off Alex. Matthew's vote doesn't matter. He's probably left out. 8.) Since I don't see a logical vote coming out of Tambaqui, Jaburu loses immunity once again. But surprise, surprise - Rob is flip-flopping his strategies once again. He joins with Matt and the vote is Deena vs. Matthew. In the end it seems a tie has a 50/50 chance of working out in this edition (see the link above) so Deena loses and becomes the first member of our jury. Merge! 9.) About the naked deal? I'm guessing it was Heidi, praying that Jenna didn't get voted off before they had the chance to reunite and scheme their way to the end. Heidi goes naked here. Dave, Matt and Rob are very happy. Getting back to the game, I feel there was massive foreshadowing in Rob's attitude towards Dave's strategy. Dave becomes the (how many is that now?)th person to be screwed by Rob. Heidi/Jenna/Rob vote together, possibly with Matt's help and probably joined by Christy, since she's not a moron and knows when to join the majority. She'll probably be shown as forced into it since I don't expect her to ever be edited negatively now that she's the sweetheart. 10.) Christy leaves her evil alliance but it really doesn't matter because Roger is still voted out. Rob still doesn't like him and he's still with the majority. 11.) Here's where it gets tough. We somehow have a 99.9% confirmation that Heidi is gone here so something big happens in this week. Butch and Christy will definitely vote together, as will Heidi and Jenna. In order to make CO's final 4 seem logical, I'm thinking Matt defaults to Butch and Christy for some reason and that Rob screws over Heidi. Sounds odd but I'm thinking something totally unexpected will probably be happening here. Maybe it's another tie? 12.) Depending on what happened in the last episode, Jenna may or may not need to win immunity. However, it doesn't really matter since Rob's playing style has left him without an alliance. He's gone here. And that leaves us with Christy, Butch, Matthew and Jenna; CO's F4. Note that in this scenario, Deena and Rob could very easily switch boot positions. If there isn't a merge, I expect episode 8 to be a very up-in-the-air vote, depending on how well Rob and Matt can strategize, for the most part. ****1.5**** I lied, I'm going to have to do three variations. 6.) Shawna goes here because her and Alex are the only two candidates and Alex has to be around to get screwed by Rob in episode 7. False-Merge 7.) Alex goes in episode seven due to Heidi and Jenna reaffirming their bond and then working Rob and promising him a spot in their alliance. Rob joins Deena and Jenna in voting off Alex. Matthew's vote doesn't matter. He's probably left out. 8.) Tambaqui goes to TC. Butch, Christy and Heidi are all safe because we know they go further. I don't see Dave ever plotting against Roger and while it's hard to see Butch and Roger going against their original team so early, it's more believable that way. Butch, Christy, Roger and maybe even Heidi vote out Dave. Merge! 9.) So let's talk about the naked deal. We also seem to have info that Heidi did not go naked during the show. If that is true than I'm thinking the girl who made the deal would be Jenna, who, same as above was praying that Heidi wouldn't go before they were reunited. Deena, Heidi and Jenna immediately get back together with Christy probably tagging along. I'm betting Rob is still with them and Matthew has been with them for awhile so Roger is probably the target at this point. Let's just say Roger goes here. 10.) Rob gets screwed, probably by Heidi. The girls don't need his vote anymore, anyway. Ryan did say his strategy would bite him later on. 11.) Heidi. Who knows why? Butch, Christy and Matthew are now an alliance, it would seem, because Jenna and Deena probably aren't going to ditch a perfectly good alliance. 12.) Jenna has to win immunity here, unless they see Deena as more of a threat. Whatever happens, Deena is gone. Leaving Christy, Butch, Matthew and Jenna; CO's F4. ****2**** 6.) Shawna goes here because her and Alex are the only two candidates and Alex has to be around to get screwed by Rob in episode 7. Traditional Merge! 7.) Christy, Deena, Heidi and Jenna come together and Heidi and Jenna string Rob along with them to toss Alex. I wonder if Matthew votes with them due to being spurned by Shawna in favour of Alex? That's probably reading way too much, though ;) The point is that Alex is always toast come episode 7. 8.) Similar to a prior scenario, Rob, who is still feeling that Dave has already shown where his trust is invested in the picking of the tribes, screws him over. For clarification, since that sentance is a bit odd: Dave goes here. 9.) Rob still gets Roger voted out here. I just don't see an alliance of Butch/Christy/Roger winning this vote. Or why Roger wouldn't make it to the end if they did. Or even why Heidi's alliance would work together with the other, less cute alliance at this point. So I predict that the majority stays together in this episode. 10.) What we have is an alliance of six and Butch, although Matt may still be an outsider as well. The thing is, the women can basically decide the boot right now and they'd HAVE to be getting annoyed with Rob right now. His play-style would also be making him look extremely untrustworthy at this point, and I think Ryan's comment about him getting bitten will apply. Also, it would just be incredible irony for him to be backstabbed by the girls that he never stops talking about. So basically, Rob goes here. 11.) Heidi still has to occupy this position. Count on Butch, Christy and Matthew being the counter-alliance, but after that I have no idea. It could be a tie. Maybe Deena jumps for her own good, thinking shallow-as-a-puddle Jenna will go before she will. Who really knows? 12.) Since there's no other option but Deena, she's doomed. Jenna as I've said, may or may not need immunity but it really doesn't matter. And once again, we have Christy, Butch, Matthew and Jenna; CO's F4. Of course ~now~ we have to ask ourselves, are we ~sure~ Matthew and Jenna are the final two and that it's not, for example, Deena and Rob?
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bemis12 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-14-03, 09:49 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
Thank you! Everyone seems to want it to be true so badly, that they give him an "almost!' every time. The fact is- he has NEVER been correct as to a bootee.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-16-03, 02:04 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
If there wasn't a merge as early and Tambaqui went back to TC. I could see Roger going before Heidi. I think Butch and Dave are close. And I could see Butch wanting to keep Christy and Dave wanting to keep Heidi. They argue for their choice and decide to boot Roger as the one they are not that crazy about. Roger does not seem as close to either Roger or Dave, as Butch and Dave do to each other. I just keep thinking Roger leaves before Dave.
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ShyMyst 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-17-03, 06:36 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Chillone F4 doesn't work" |
Hi, just wanted to share my theory on how the game might be played out at least on the side of Tambaqui.. Haven't quite figured out who will go first on Jabaru except for perhaps Rob.
Tambaqui should be safe for at least 1 maybe 2 episodes in IC challenges. All of them are pretty strong right now.
Dave is playing Heidi into thinking the guys want an alliance with her. I think they're really planning on keeping Christy but get rid of Heidi at first opportunity. Butch and Roger will align with Christy and most likely Dave seeing Christy was his first choice after Heidi to be picked instead of either Deena or Shawna. one has to wonder why he'd get rid of Christy so soon if Christy was his choice. Dave will pretend an alliance with Heidi up to a point. Then at the 1st TC heidi will go first I think. Roger probably will go at the next TC if he continues to get on everyone's nerves by his bossy attitude, making the alliance of Butch and Christy the stronger alliance and dave either relunctantly or really joining them or getting the boot at the next TC if there is no merge. If there is a merge before Dave gets the boot then Dave,Butch and Christy goes ahead and then Dave probably be aligning with Jenna, and Matthew while Deena'll align with Butch and Christy. I don't see Shawna and Alex lasting much longer by themselves after one of them gets booted off.
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