===========================================
NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
===========================================

Overview

- There clearly seems to be a swap of some kind this week and Matthew and Deena end up on the same Jaburu roster

- Our best guess is it's a 3/3 swap

- The scenario that seems to make the most sense is that the two youngest members of the tribes, Jenna and Dave, are involved in determining the swap, perhaps even by taking turns making alternate selections (a la the beginning of Survivor Thailand)

- Jenna, Heidi, Deena, Matthew, Alex, and Rob seem likely to end up in Jaburu. Dave, Butch, Roger, Shawna, Christy, and Jeanne seem likely to be in New Tambaqui.

- The winner of the Immunity Challenge is unclear, but: A) if it's six versus six, no one is likely to sit out, B) it seems at least in part to be a physcial boat race... a challenge that Dave and his tribe that contains two older men and a likely sick Shawna might be at a disadvantage in (especially if it's a relay challenge of sorts where Shawna might have to perform some type of solo activity.)

- Based on the limited IC evidence, it seems more likely that if the tribal rosters are correct, then New Tambaqui loses the IC.

- If that is the case, then two things might happen: A) It's a 3 vs. 3 showdown with the men versus the women and we might see the return of Pappy's favorite purple rock, B) someone caves and the battle of the sexes ends (for now.) Of the two, given the more fractured politics of the women (Dave, Butch, And Roger have been pretty much on the same page so far) and the fact the Shawna seems to still be ill, Scenario B seems more likely and the only question is which among themselves do the women turn on? Is it Shawna, the sick one who will likely arrive at Tambaqui to have seen most of her male admirers either shipped to the other tribe or voted out? Is it Christy, the deaf girl who they might have difficulty communicating with and who rumor has it was much more of an unpleasant person than the editing has shown? Or will it be Jeanne, the oldest woman of the group and someone who's been shown to be a bit of a schemer?

Popular opinion says it's "A" -- namely Shawna, and that's sounds logical to me. Christy seems to have spoilers indicating she goes much further in the game, while you'd think Roger and Butch might welcome the chance to have another more mature person like Jeanne in the tribe.

SHAWNA is our official bootee prediction. Since it seems highly likely that if a mixed tribe containing Dave, Butch, and Roger goes to TC that those three are unlikely to not vote as a unit, it also only makes sense to select another woman as the alternate pick. And given Christy's "goes longer in the game" spoilers, that makes Jeanne the only remaining alternate bootee option. Therefore JEANNE is our alternate bootee selection (and it certainly doesn't hurt the logic of this pick that SurvivorNews is suddenly predicting Jeanne as tonight's bootee!)

For more logic details please see Krautboy's below additional logic explanation:

Addition Logic Explanation

Weight Loss:

Weight loss is our most reliable pre-merge spoiling tool, narrowing down the field to those without significant weight loss reports: Shawna, Jenna, Dave, Alex and Roger.

Milkshaky Spoiler:

Milkshaky apparently has a very reliable source close to Heidi, who has reported that Heidi and her “friend” go far in the game. The feather alliance and storyline seems to confirm Jenna as Heidi’s “friend”. The Chillone also believes “Jana” is Jenna, so she’s safe.

Daniel’s Chat:

Daniel’s comment about Roger suggest that he didn’t spend any time with him at the lodge… "And if there is a merge, the girls won't stand for Roger.", suggesting Roger makes the merge, but not far beyond. Roger appears safe until the merge.

OFG Theory:

Roger has also faded into the background, and is not featured in any of the previews this week, as the theory states he would be if he were going. Roger is safe this week.

Editing:

Dave’s story is being developed this week. He is featured as the ambassador of his tribe and in a good position to assure himself a safe spot on the “new” tribes. It’s too soon for Dave to go this week, but he’s being set up for the merge boot position. Dave is safe until the merge.

KillerDanaH and Boston Guy 1:

Shawna is sick and Alex is injured. We also have two posters claiming to have second hand knowledge of when Shawna and Alex leave the game. KillerDanaH confirmed the rumor of Alex and Shawna getting to know each other at the resort.

KillerDanaH also claims Shawna gets voted off EP4 or EP5.
Boston Guy 1 claims to know that Alex gets voted off EP5 or EP6.

Both reports seem credible…so, combining the spoilers, we can assume that Shawna goes to the resort EP5 and Alex follows in EP6, where they start the relationship we have been hearing about.

Switch/Swap:

The three main arguments for a swap:

1. Boston Guy1 Spoiler (from SS) that reports Alex voted off by Heidi/Jenna and Rob in EP5/6. This could only happen after a swap (early merge has been ruled out).

2. Forehead’s observation that the “Battle of the Sexes” theme has disappeared for EP5. Swap makes the BOS theme obsolete.

3. Split screen vidcap of the IC Boat Race is used to hide the other participants in the boats. (no other IC images shown) This is not necessary unless there are teammates of the opposite sex in the boats, which would reveal a swap.

New Tribes:

IceCat has confirmed and clearly demonstrated, with vidcap evidence, that a swap does occur and that Matthew and Deena are both on the New Jaburu..

Dave is seen in the IC Boat Race image wearing his blue buff. We can then conclude that Dave and Jenna, the two “ambassadors”, stay with their original tribes.

Heidi is “shocked”, shown wearing a yellow buff. She remains on New Jaburu.

The Boston Guy 1 Spoiler reported that Alex gets voted out by Rob, Heidi and Jenna in EP5 or EP6. That means Rob must also be one of the New Jaburu, post swap.

Regardless of the whether the swap is random, or voluntary, or selected by Dave and Jenna, by process of elimination we are left with New tribes that look like this:

New Jaburu : Deena, Jenna, Heidi, Matthew, Rob, and Alex
New Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Butch, Christy, Jeanne, and Shawna.

Looking at the resulting tribes, it appears the ambassadors may have some say in who they select or swap to the other tribe. Dave apparently keeps his alliance with Roger and Butch in tact. Jenna keeps her alliance with Deena and Heidi together…

CBS Press Release:

..."A Surprise Rocks the Tribe Dynamics..."

"Just when the tribes settle into their environment, a surprise tempts the existing alliances within the tribes..."

"With this unforseen turn of events, the survivors are presented with new tribe dynamics which may ultimately challenge current alliances..."

It’s the "alliances" that are being tempted... stay together or rebuild new alliances?

Dave and Jenna must decide who the will keep and who to swap. Both decide to try and keep their alliance in tact, with the exception of Jenna dumping Shawna and Dave getting rid of Alex who is injured and “untrustworthy”.

They go back to their tribes to "present" the swap decisions and the new tribe dynamics that result. After the 3-3 swap the "current alliances" will face a new tribe dynamic which may "challenge" them...a 3-3 tie if voting along gender lines if they go to TC.

The temptation will come for those that may want to jump ship to the other alliance after the swap.

But Shawna is sick and a liability to her tribe, unable to sit her out at 6v6, the New Tambaqui lose the physical Boat/Relay Race IC, and go to TC where Shawna finally gets to go home…