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"Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
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KegMaster72 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

08-18-00, 07:07 PM (EST)
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"Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
Basically my theory is most well-known slip ups and quotes would have to turn out false for Rudy to not be the winner. The "him" slips, if true, make it 50/50 right there...
My theory on each person, plus how it goes down...

Rich - Nat'l Geo. article said he did not win.

Sue - Said she made enough to not work for 3 years. If I win a million bucks, I don't work for MUCH MUCH MUCH longer than that, especially if I am a truckdriver.

Kelly - The whole stolen credit card thing. I mean, if I knew I had a million bucks coming, Im pretty sure I could contain myself and not commit any major crimes for awhile.

Wouldn't this eliminate each of the above and leave Rudy as the winner? Granted, any/all of these quotes could be fake/incorrect or Kelly's credit card thing could have been some sort of accidental slip up, but these quotes have been around for quite some time.

My theory:

Anyone but Kelly wins the first IC. Very possible, Im not under the impression that Kelly cares about anyone enough to answer the questions, and I doubt she is a rocket-scientist to begin with. I would put her as maybe the 3rd "smartest" left. Rich could easily win this. Also follows boy/girl pattern that has been evident. Bye bye Kelly, nice knowin ya...psyche...
That leaves Rudy, Rich and Sue.

Somehow, Sue or Rudy win the Coals IC. They pick the other one. I know its illogical to go up against Rudy, but he has been kind of a crusty old guy to a lot of Pagong. Rudy picks Sue since he knows no one likes her personality and they can at least rationalize that Rich deserves the money for his hard work. Also many Pagong said Rich was a nice guy except for the whole devil-alliance thing. Rich finishing 3rd would roughly equate to what we know for his earnings from the show as well. 45,000 could be what 3rd is left with after taxes. Also follows boy/girl pattern that has been going since Joel got kicked.

So Sue and Rudy. People hate Sue, its well known people think she was the most conniving on the island. Rudy is the old guy, crusty yes, but its well known a lot of jury members thought he was funny (Jenna) so Rudy wins. 100,000 would roughly be the 35,000 Sue makes times 3. So 3 years of income. That seems to fit, and Rudy is the winner.

I think it sounds like the most plausible explanation going on what we know.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? xtine 08-18-00 1
   RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? KegMaster72 08-18-00 3
       Kelly's credit card arrest ... AyatollahKhomeini 08-18-00 5
 RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? AyatollahKhomeini 08-18-00 2
   RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? KegMaster72 08-18-00 4
       RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? AyatollahKhomeini 08-18-00 7
 RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? Laney 08-18-00 6
   MB did NOT say the winner was scary... AyatollahKhomeini 08-18-00 8
 RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? Little Bob 08-18-00 9
   RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only... xtine 08-18-00 10
       RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only... Laney 08-19-00 11
           RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only... xtine 08-19-00 12
               RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only... Rudyrox 08-19-00 13

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Messages in this topic

xtine 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

08-18-00, 08:48 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "

>
>Kelly - The whole stolen credit
>card thing. I mean, if
>I knew I had a
>million bucks coming, Im pretty
>sure I could contain myself
>and not commit any major
>crimes for awhile.

That happend years ago... not after survivor...


>
>Anyone but Kelly wins the first
>IC. Very possible, Im not
>under the impression that Kelly
>cares about anyone enough to
>answer the questions, and I
>doubt she is a rocket-scientist
>to begin with. I would
>put her as maybe the
>3rd "smartest" left.

Kelly did win in the island folk-lore IC. she was the only one that got all the questions right... rich and sue screwed up on one of them.

Rich could
>easily win this. Also follows
>boy/girl pattern that has been
>evident.

Yeah rich is good at sizing people up but too self involved to really listen to everyone... I don't agree

I think Kelly will pull it off... and she is the only one with a real chance of walking over the coals (yoga thing comes into play again)... (if they're really real)

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KegMaster72 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

08-18-00, 09:34 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
>
>>
>>Kelly - The whole stolen credit
>>card thing. I mean, if
>>I knew I had a
>>million bucks coming, Im pretty
>>sure I could contain myself
>>and not commit any major
>>crimes for awhile.
>
>That happend years ago... not after
>survivor...
>
I was under the impression that it was her "spousal" abuse that happened years ago, and the stolen CC thing was recent, much like Rich's child abuse.
>
>>
>>Anyone but Kelly wins the first
>>IC. Very possible, Im not
>>under the impression that Kelly
>>cares about anyone enough to
>>answer the questions, and I
>>doubt she is a rocket-scientist
>>to begin with. I would
>>put her as maybe the
>>3rd "smartest" left.
>
>Kelly did win in the island
>folk-lore IC. she was
>the only one that got
>all the questions right... rich
>and sue screwed up on
>one of them.

Yes she did win the folklore one, but I picture this being slightly different. In the folklore one Probst presented all material in a short synopsis, emphasizing a need to know this stuff. She KNEW she needed it and CAREFULLY listened. This is different to what a castmember would mention in a casual conversation, it depends basically if Kelly could do well, but not as well as Rich, who in his real life job has to get to know people by remembering little facts.
>
>Rich could
>>easily win this. Also follows
>>boy/girl pattern that has been
>>evident.
>
>Yeah rich is good at sizing
>people up but too self
>involved to really listen to
>everyone... I don't agree
>
>I think Kelly will pull it
>off... and she is the
>only one with a real
>chance of walking over the
>coals (yoga thing comes into
>play again)... (if they're really
>real)

Yoga could help Kelly, but determination plays a huge factor in this one. I mean its basically how far will you go for the bucks? But this isn't really an arguement against my theory since I see Kelly losing the first IC and then obviously getting kicked at the first TC since she is definitely a threat to win the coals one. You are right, she would have a be a favorite in this one.


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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

08-18-00, 09:54 PM (EST)
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5. "Kelly's credit card arrest ..."
LAST EDITED ON 08-18-00 AT 09:55 PM (EST)

... happened in 1995. The actual arrest warrant (along with the documents that show Kelly may not be legally divorced) and the arresting officer's report from her 1997 nose-biting arrest (in which she discusses the credit-card warrant) are posted on

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/

I agree, if she loses IC, she's gone. But I don't agree that someone who was friends with gossipy Jenna and with Colleen (who didn't have anyone else to talk to after Gervase got booted)wouldn't be a threat to win this IC. Just as the balancing contest had to be either Colleen or Kelly, this one has to be either Rich or Kelly.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

08-18-00, 09:22 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
Good to hear from you, KM72. One of the questions we've been debating over the last couple of days is whether it really seems plausible that THREE survivors (Gervase, Dirk, and Jenna) would ALL INDEPENDENTLY slip up on the SAME DAY and say that "he" or "him" wins (no names, mind you). What do you think?
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KegMaster72 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

08-18-00, 09:39 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
Yeah thats an interesting one AK. They could be Burnett plants, but I don't see why. Sure to throw us web-folk off, but I think he is cocky enough to think we can't slueth anything out, so why bother planting it when the buzz is already HUGE.
My bet is its a slipup by at least one of them, with the following ones being cover ups possibly. Or a slip up by all three. I mean when you are watching your mouth, something as small as referring to a person as "he/him" instead of "they/them" is very possible. My brain would be saying "Dont say their name, dont say their name, just dont say their name" and not "dont reveal gender", etc.

Also, uh, I love Gerv and all, and Jenna was cool and I liked Dirk, but uh, these people don't strike me as the brightest lightbulbs the country has to offer ya know? I can easily see them more concerned with looking good on camera, then some small grammatical slipup.

just my 2 cents

KM72

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

08-18-00, 09:58 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
>Also, uh, I love Gerv and
>all, and Jenna was cool
>and I liked Dirk, but
>uh, these people don't strike
>me as the brightest lightbulbs
>the country has to offer
>ya know?

A good reason why GE wasn't a sponsor!


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Laney 60 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

08-18-00, 09:58 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
It wouldn't be shocking for Rudy to win. Every one and their mother thinks Rudy is going to win.

With the IC asking questions about the other castaways... I see either Kelly or Rich doing well. Kelly because she hung out with the Pangongers, and Rich because he manipulates (he must know his prey to manipulate.) Rudy? His answers would be along the lines of, "I dunno!"

I doubt the credibility of the "slip-ups" during the interviews. I believe that CBS wants us to believe that their slip-ups were geniune, hence the gag order. Why not the gag order earlier when Stacey was blabbling all over? Or when Gervise said that Sue's strategy didn't work for her?

It's too easy to have Rudy win. It's what Burnett has wanted us to believe from the begining (Rudy action figure doll?) The winner will be shocking. I hardly doubt Rich/Sue/Kelly would want to go against Rudy in the final two, that they will somehow get rid of him. If they wouldn't why show the clip about "I will get revenge if anyone goes against their word"? I just cannot believe it will be Rudy.

I think the winner will be Kelly or Sue. I will not Rule out Rich though-- that NG article could also be a ploy. I suppose my motto right now should be, "Trust No 1" (esp. Mark Burnett)

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

08-18-00, 10:06 PM (EST)
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8. "MB did NOT say the winner was scary or shocking"
LAST EDITED ON 08-18-00 AT 10:09 PM (EST)

Laney, I agree with you. I think (and have thought for weeks) that Kelly wins. We could both be wrong, but that's what makes it fun!

But one potential reason for Kelly (or anyone but Rudy) to win, that MB the winner is "scary to society" or "shocking," doesn't hold up (even though I said last week that I remembered those quotes -- sorry!). The "scary to society" quote actually was attributed to a cameraman on the show, and MB only said that the winner would have been "surprising" on day 1 but not if you followed the whole story. The rest appears to be urban legend. I think a victory by ANY of the Tagi Alliance would have been surprising on day 1, and the cameraman may just have been scared by the TA succeeding.

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Little Bob 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"

08-18-00, 10:53 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? "
First of all, I think that the National Geographic did not know who got voted off out of the final four. MB wouldn't let something that big slip. I think that the writer didn't like Rich and made the statement without real evidence.

Also, another MB quote is that the final vote is really close. Rudy is now the most liked person by the jury and would probably win in a blowout against any of the. My final two prediction is Kelly and Rich with Rich winning by just one or two votes.

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xtine 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

08-18-00, 11:03 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only if it's between rudy and rich)"
NOOOO rich can't win. i hate the guy. i've been waiting all this time until he gets voted off... then i polish off a bottle of wine to celebrate! i guess i have to wait until the 13th week. but seriously, i hate rich and the slip ups i'm sure are planted by M.B... he wants to have the last laugh... (and high ratings)
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Laney 60 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

08-19-00, 00:02 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only if it's between rudy and rich)"
I will join you in a toast if Richard gets the boot!
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xtine 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

08-19-00, 00:08 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only if it's between rudy and rich)"
yes, an online toast! you're on...
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Rudyrox 152 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

08-19-00, 01:19 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Doesn't Rudy HAVE to win? (only if it's between rudy and rich)"
Count me in too!
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