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"The switch"
Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-09-03, 06:45 PM (EST)
 
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"The switch" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-09-03 AT 07:30 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-09-03 AT 07:28 PM (EST) Thanks to Krautboy's excellent reasoning HERE, I am 80% sure we have a switch. So, let's try to figure out the new tribes: What we know:
Jenna and Dave are on a date. Logical speculation:
The tribes are to send one single man and one single women for a "date." This might have something to do with the locked box or not. The switch MUST take place at this date. If the challenge just said "Send one person," I would expect the leaders of each tribe to go and that would be Deena/Butch/Roger. I doubt that Jenna would be picked. What we know:
90% there is a switch for reasons described in krautboy's thread. Logical speculation:
Jenna and Dave somehow figure into the switch. Whether they pick the new tribes randomly or they pick three on each team. From the vidcaps we see:
Heidi in a yellow buff
Deena in a yellow buff
Let's assume that Jenna stays Jaburu, too. It makes since then that Jenna picking her two alliance-mates had something to do with the picks. Maybe they trade off like at the beginning of S5 with Jan and Jake. Jenna picks one, Dave picks the next....etc. It also supports C1's F4 spoiler and our boot picks NICELY. 1) It supports a Shawna boot in Ep5. Shawna switches to Tambaqui with Christy and Jeanne. The women don't vote in a bloc because Jeanne feels bad for Shawna. If they do vote in a bloc, they might target Dave.
2) Dave might also send Alex to Jaburu, where the women vote him out in a tiebreaker. THE TWO NEW TRIBES We know the women with some confidence, but the men is a guess. We'll go based on F7 strong evidence (Rob/Butch/Matthew/Jenna/Heidi/Deena/Christy) and erikman's post below: "boston guy at sucks he has heidi, jenna, rob, and alex on the same tribe, and rob sideing with the girls to get rid of alex."
JABURU (probability in parentheses)
Jenna (70%)
Heidi (85%) Says she is "shocked" likely after switch
Deena (100%)
Rob?? (70%)
Alex?? (70%)
Roger?? (55%)
TAMBAQUI
Shawna (70%)
Jeanne (70%)
Christy (70%)
Dave (100%)
Matthew?? (55%)
Butch?? (55%) This makes sense, because Dave seems to have bonded with Butch and Matthew.
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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03-09-03, 07:06 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: The switch" |
read boston guy at sucks he has heidi, jenna, rob, and alex on the same tribe, and rob sideing with the girls to get rid of alex. also there is my spec at messhall. i think new jabaroo will be jenna heidi, deana, alex rob, and roger. leaving christi and jeana butch matt dave and shawna. i think butch christi and jeana make an allince and go f4 and take ether dave or matt with them.
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings
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03-09-03, 07:12 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: The switch" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-09-03 AT 07:18 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-09-03 AT 07:16 PM (EST) Good thinking, except I'm not sure the buff color is a reason to conclude someone stays on their current team. For example, Heidi in a yellow buff could be before the switch. I tend to think the F4 end up on the same team after the switch
Deena
Matt
Butch
Christy Otherwise, it's hard to see how they get to the F4. Probably Jeanne as the other female. This let's Jenna keep her original alliance together. Don't know who the other male is, but likely Roger (Rob stays with Dave and Alex.)
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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03-09-03, 07:46 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: The switch" |
why i don't think there is a fake merge is becouse in 2 weeks
they pick up stakes and move to the forest of life. why have them move to one camp then 5 days latter move to a new camp.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 04:31 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: The switch" |
This is exactly what I think is going to happen, mostly because:1.) The Amazon cast was taken out there just in time to miss the cohabitation episode of Thailand. This actually ~would~ be a new twist, even for us, since it's happening so early on. 2.) It makes the next couple of boots (Shawna/Dave) actually make some sort of sense. 3.) I really don't think MB would want to go for the high chance of a purple rock for two weeks in a row. 4.) Cohabitation allows for the same post-merge adaptability as a swap! Even moreso, when you think about it, since it means that everyone interacts with everyone else instead of 3-3 which means that everyone only interacts with half of the castaways before the merge happens. 5.) Chillone - his info guy has been off before, but is it really that easy to mistake a 3-person switch for a cohabitation?  
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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03-09-03, 11:40 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: The switch" |
I dragged over my reasoning for swap outcome from the mystery box thread, condensed it and added a new thought on Jenna and Dave being on the same tribe.******************************************************* It appears that the tribes "choose" an ambassador. Jenna and Dave fit this potential scenario. Dave as young, smart and likeable, Jenna as young, attractive and deceptive (Jeff described her as "smart with men", so I suspect the other tribemembers can see this utility in her also). What is inside the box? I'm sticking with my original thought of 3 buffs of the same color. What is the purpose of the rendezvous? To discuss the 411 on the other tribe members. The ambassadors will bring this info back to their tribes so they can choose 3 new tribe members from the other tribe. Why have them discuss the swap with an ambassador of the other tribe first? From a producer standpoint, it creates an opportunity for stupidity (revealing too much), productive deception and new alliances. Jenna and Dave will have the opportunity to put together their ideal "team". For example, if their ideal team is Jenna, Heidi, Shawn, Dave, Alex, Rob - then Jenna can report back to her tribe to request those 3 men for the swap, and Dave would request Deena, Jeanne, Christy. This could result in the horny tribe vs the ornery tribe. Is the outcome of the swap easily predictable? No. Too many factors for making a selection. Jenna and Dave may discuss putting together a "dream team" that maintains internal alliances (3 allied men + 3 allied women), but back at camp others in the alliance point out that it would be better to choose 3 non-allied tribe mates so they don't organize against you. Overall, selection factors could be based on looks, personality, strength, leadership, - too many factors for a prediction. One predictable aspect is that Dave will squeal like a pig and Jenna will reveal little. I base this on Jeff's description of Jenna as "smart with men", if she had flubbed this opportunity he would not have described her this way. How predict swap outcome? Start with vidcaps. We know that Deena and Dave remain on original tribes. My final four belief is Deena, Matt, Christy, Butch. How does this become a F4? Perhaps they were all on the new swap team, Deena and Christy remain, while Matt and Butch are brought over. If this is true, then it may appear that the female tribe base their picks on bringing over "nice, stable, malleable" people. Info flushed out by Jenna. So rule out Roger being on their tribe. Now also, if Deena and Christy remain then it may appear that the men based their picks on "young and cute". The vidcaps also support Jenna and Dave being on the same tribe. The vidcaps show Dave and Deena in normal buffs in a potential immune challenge as if to say, "See, no swaps or switches this episode". But why not show Dave and JENNA in original buffs? Probably because Jenna has been swapped. So far that may predict:
New Jaburu: Deena, Christy, Matt, Butch, Jeanne
New Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Jenna, Heidi, Shawna That leaves Alex and Rob. If Rob makes it further than Alex based on weight loss spoilers then perhaps he is on the new tribe that makes it further in the end: Jaburu. And Alex is one of the remaining Tambaqui (to nurse new tribemate Shawna, in and out of the game). Swap outcome:
New Jab: Deena, Christy, Matt, Butch, Jeanne, Rob
New Tamb: Dave, Roger, Jenna, Heidi, Shawna, Alex Just my thoughts, BI
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 01:01 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: The switch" |
BI, I like the thought process you went through to get to your swapped tribes. This scenario is as good as anything we've got right now.Swap outcome:
New Jab: Deena, Christy, Matt, Butch, Jeanne, Rob
New Tamb: Dave, Roger, Jenna, Heidi, Shawna, Alex It also dovetails with the previews and how the show is edited... Jeanne is featured on one tribe overhearing a conversation...probably Deena and Christy discussing their strategy (both on the New Jab) Alex is featured on the other tribe because of his injury. (New Tamb) Shawna is sick and Alex is injured, setting up the editing for "Who gets voted off" when the New Tamb loses the "Boat Relay Race IC"...will it be Shawna or Alex? Shawna and Alex can also lay the groundwork for their pst-game relationship once they are together on the same tribe for a couple days post swap...until Shawna is sent home. 
Krautboy
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anninvt2002 86 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 10:04 AM (EST)
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12. "Agree..." |
It is great to listen to the minds and thoughts of the greatest spoilers. Does this scenerio agree with the earlier photo of what looks like Heidi, etc. leaving tribal council at night>
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 12:06 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Agree..." |
annin, I am not confident on the analysis of those series of vidcaps, meaning that I do believe they can support a merge/swap scenario, but the fuzziness of the peeps makes it a Rorschach test (i.e. there were a lot of different speculations on who the peeps were). Annin if you want to compile all those interpretations of those vidcaps and see if anything is consistent that could be useful (and add your own thoughts too). In parallel, I just peeked at TDT to see that they interpret a fuzzy picture of a person in the boat with Deena as possibly being Matt (and a default alt to Jeanne). Either one supports the new swap scenarios above, but those vidcaps may need more analysis also. BI
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 02:20 PM (EST)
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15. "Boston Rob Spoiler" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-10-03 AT 02:25 PM (EST)BI: Their is a spoiler over at SS dealing with a report that Alex goes in EP5 or EP6...this is consistent with our speculation, but the spoiler mentions that an alliance of Rob, Heidi and Jenna get rid of Alex. The spoiler seems legit, so we may want to reconfigure the "New" tribes to reflect having Rob and Alex (along with Heidi and Jenna)on the same tribe after the swap...maybe just switching Rob and Roger? Swap outcome:
New Jab: Deena, Christy, Matt, Butch, Jeanne, Roger
New Tamb: Dave, Rob, Jenna, Heidi, Shawna, Alex What do you think?
Krautboy
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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 02:37 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Boston Rob Spoiler" |
If this was already said somewhere else, I apologize.
First, what if each person is matched up with someone from the other tribe for the reward challenge. Winner gets dinner, shower, etc. That would explain the Canoe part of the videos. Maybe the box contains sticks and the order they are matched up is by the color or length of the sticks that they pick. Then it is an elimination challenge with a couple being eliminated, as each part is done, similar to what they did in Thailand. That would explain the fact that it appears that it is Matteo in the boat the Deena.Then, what if Dave and Jenna meet and are told something like You must pick 3 members of your tribe to go live with the other tribe. Never says switch, just something like go live with. Now, each tribe has 3 new members that everyone gets to know and start to align with. As a part of this each tribe gets a reward meal at their camp once the new tribe members move. That would take care of the reward part of the show. When they go to the immunity challenge JP something like, Switch, I never said switch, I said go live at." You must compete with your original tribe. That would allow for the shock that Heidi has. Well, let me know what you agree with and what you think is bunk
Boot Ed
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 03:13 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Boston Rob Spoiler" |
KB, I like it, it is more solid than my speculation. So it would look like Deena and the gang may decide to base their choices on "older males" rather than my previous guess of "nice, stable, malleable males." Looks like it just may end up being the Horny tribe vs the Ornery tribe after all. This may further indicate that new Jaburu dominates the next few challenges, and either continues to dominate in a delayed merge situation or Jaburu Pagongs Tamb (mostly) in a normal merge situation (Jeanne and Roger get tossed before Pagong is complete). Good work KB on the continued synthesis : ) Cheers, BI
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 06:34 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Boston Rob Spoiler" |
I agree - had posted that same team make-up yesterday (above).
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 11:54 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Boston Rob Spoiler" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 00:02 AM (EST)If Dave and Jenna were told you must swap (ie: trade away) three people, then Dave would get rid of Matthew (for being Daniel's buddy), Rob (for being two faced), Alex (for being two faced and/or being injured). Jenna would keep her core alliance member Heidi along with the strong Deena thus trading Christy, Jeanne, and the weak Shawna. New Tribes would be: Jamburu: Jenna, Heidi, Deena, Matt, Alex, Rob Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Butch, Christy, Jeanne, Shawna In EP5 Alex get's hurt but his new tribe, Jamburu win immunity and Tambaqui goes to TC where Dave, Butch, Roger and Christy (out of sympathy for Shawna) vote Shawna out. Remember the friend of a friend spoiler that said if Shawna didn't go in EP4 it would be EP5. Jaburu loses IC next week, the injured Alex is booted leading to Alex and Shawna finding love in Loser Lodge.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 09:39 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: The switch" |
Dragging mine over as well# 1. All the words in the teasers strike me as a situation that is given to the Survivors who have a choice in the outcome as opposed to MB saying, here you go, no choice. Example, last season's option to switch as opposed to Africa's twist. The wording fits a CHOICE IMO. # 2. Last season's "option" was done spur of the moment with 30 seconds to decide without conferring with anyone. No one took Jeffy up on the offer HOWEVER some confessed later they might have or assumed someone else might have. The "disaster" of it, IMO was the fact that it was a throw out unexpected to them and it scared them to make such a drastic change so the audience perception was it bombed. # 3. We KNOW at some point there has to be a joining of the males and females; it HAS to be done. Separating there was merely a prerequisite. And unlike some of you, I think the split men vs. female is getting old now. #4. There has been so much OVERKILL of certain members of each tribe DYING to sink their teeth into the other tribe. Heidi/Jenna with their using their bodies and how wonderful they are, Rob with his constant 8 ball asking about hooking up, it's reeking of foreshadowing. #5. The alliances as we know it in both tribes IMO are so convulated it is ridiculous. Shawna wants out, Jenna/Heidi had to stop her, Jeanne lost her greatest ally, Christy voted with the majority who clearly used her, Deena is alligned with people she could dump when it suits her. Rob is zooming everyone, Dave trusts no one, Matthew only has just begun to define new relationships, etc. While we "see" alliances, IMO they are ALL over the place and could EASILY with the right opportunity be changed #6. The cast this time IMO would jump at the chance to switch up. Heidi/Jenna can't wait to use their bodies, Rob can't wait to be with the women, Jeanne and Christy are potentially in no man's land, Shawna is just spent. Alex and Dave are intrigued by the women. Only Roger and Butch IMO would seemingly be content to stay as is. Taking the above into consideration, if say Pick Up Sticks is just a result of the tribes having sticks to pick up or choose from and Jenna and Dave are the "winners" of such and go on a date.... what if they are given the opportunity by Jeff to bring back to their own tribes the CHOICE to swap in some aspect and given TIME as well as CONVERSATION with each other to decide on the TEMPTATION to do it. They each go back with this surprise (Heidi in her confessional mentions about shocking but she isn't like blown out of the water) and this ends up causing certain members to whisper on this etc. Jeanne may overhear one of these conversations and gets PO'd about it etc. And at the next "meeting" Jeffy asks individually their decision. This "opportunity" would be very "tempting" and the fact they have the time and opportunity to discuss it would give a greater opportunity for those who want to switch up. Now as far as it being "even" how would Jeffy have done it last season if Shii Ann and Steph wanted to switch? He would have to have contigencies for that which he could for this season as well. If last season's cast had time and opportunity to discuss the "offer" we may have seen a different outcome and the fact that there is SO much crap being thrown at us about the sexes and the hook ups and the using their bodies, etc. I can't fathom that MB is not going to work that angle and soon.
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FSUGUY 447 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 10:30 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: The switch" |
I read somewhere a long time ago, probably before Amazon started, about a swap rule.can anybody find that (needle in a haystack)? I believe it was on the lines that if the teams were even at 6 then the RULES state there will be a 3 swap. maybe this was a JP quote. or Chill One original post. I have been using this basis voting and predicting this week would be a swap.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 04:57 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Wording " |
May help, may not. Survivor 6 - A surprise tempts them with the opportunity of some new dynamics Survivor 5 - The Survivors receive a shocking offer (Offer to swap, their choice) Also Survivor 5 - The two tribes anticipate a merger between them, but what they don't anticipate are the details (Fake merger by MB and company) Survivor 4 - And the castaways throw their fates to the winds and find themselves in a surprising predicament.
(Swap initiated by MB and company)
Survivor Three - A SURVIVOR first! Every friendship and every alliance will be shattered. The Survivors thought they knew the game, but the game is about to change (MB devised swap, we first deemed it a twist but it was a swap) Just putting this here (did not see it posted yet-pardon if done) to maybe get more of an inkling of how MB likes to word his teasers regarding these situations.
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 06:47 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Wording " |
sure would tempt matt christi and jeanee. jenna and heidiwould want men to build there hut alex and rob will want good looking women to look at.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 06:58 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Wording " |
LAST EDITED ON 03-10-03 AT 07:10 PM (EST)>May help, may not.
>
>Survivor 6 - A surprise tempts
>them with the opportunity of
>some new dynamics
>
 The CBS Press release says: ..."A SURPRISE ROCKS THE TRIBE DYNAMICS..." "Just when the tribes settle into their environment, a surprise tempts the existing alliances within the tribes..." "With this unforseen turn of events, the survivors are presented with new tribe dynamics which may ultimately challenge current alliances..." Edited to add analysis: It seems that the "alliances" is what are being tempted... Dave and Jenna must decide something about the swap, and go back to their tribes to "present" their decision about the new tribe dynamics. Heidi is shocked by Jenna's decision because she thought their alliance was solidly in control. After the 3-3 swap the "current alliances", now face a new tribe dynamic which may "challenge" them...a 3-3 tie with the other tribe members. The temptation will come for those that may want to jump ship to the other alliance after the swap. The temptation comes AFTER the swap, not before...
Krautboy
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 06:49 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: The switch" |
I've read Kraut's thread that was referenced, and I'm still unclear why we're so convinced that there is going to be a swap, anyone want to try and summarize the thinking? Thanks.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 07:33 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: The switch" |
The three main arguments for a swap:1. Boston Guy1 Spoiler (from SS) that reports Alex voted off by Heidi/Jenna and Rob in EP5/6. This could only happen after a swap (early merge has been ruled out). 2. Foreheads observation that the Battle of the Sexes theme has disappeared for EP5. Swap makes the BOS theme obsolete. 3. Split screen vidcap of the IC Boat Race is used to hide the other participants in the boats. (no other IC images shown) This is not necessary unless there are teammates of the opposite sex in the boats, which would reveal a swap.
Other clues such as the Mystery Box, role of ambassadors, ChillOne Spoiler, etc can be argued either way.
These three points are not air-tight, but they seem to suggest a swap
they do not exclude the possibility of both swap and pre-merge cohabitation
Krautboy
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-03, 11:14 PM (EST)
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30. "Conclusive Proof of a Swap..." |
Vidcap evidence in the 'Yup It's Matt' post above.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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03-11-03, 00:00 AM (EST)
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32. "Great Job Icecat; who goes where" |
For the tribal swap, there seem to be different speculation on the who goes where....I believe our tribes will breakup this way: With Jenna and Dave both being ambassadors, it would be way unfair for them to be on the same tribe...(just for the psychology of chosen/outcast....don't think MB would go there).
So Jenna probably stays Jabaru
Dave we know stays Tambaqui We see Matthew in the boat with Deena both on Jabaru. We also see Heidi post ambassador meeting being shocked. So we have Jenna, Deena, and Heidi staying with Jabaru. We have Boston Rob spoiler of Heidi/Jenna joining with Rob to get rid of Alex. So, that gives us all of Jabaru: Alex, Rob, Matthew, Jenna, Heidi, and Deena Leaving Tambaqui as Dave, Roger, Butch, Christy, Jeanne, and Shawna It also potentially gives us the order of the next 3 boots and how it happens. Shawna wants to go home. Jeanne/Christy will jump at opportunity to align with the guys. IC is water physical challenge. Tambaqui won't be able to sit anyone out. Shawna will be dead weight, and Shawna will finally get to go home. Which will lead us to Ep. 6 where it looks like Rob will join the ladies to dump Alex over Matthew expecting a merge in Ep. 7 since these guys don't know what went on in Thailand and Rob the Survivor king will get rid of a strong competitor (and an attention threat from the ladies). Then we wondered how Dave could go pre-jury. Merge takes place at its regular time. The new Jabaru unite (Matthew has learned to vote with majority) and vote strongest Tambaqui---Dave----Butch, Roger, Christy, Jeanne vote as a bloc, and Dave the most knucklehead rocket scientist ever goes against the bloc, votes his conscience for someone else and we have a 5-4-1 vote against Dave.
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-11-03, 00:12 AM (EST)
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35. "Roo, VanQ, and me Too..." |
We seem to agree on the swap of tribal members with Dave and Jenna selecting to give away members resulting in the new tribes:Jaburu: Jenna, Heidi, Deena, Rob, Matt, Alex Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Butch, Christy, Jeanne, Shawna For reasons that I posted here: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3623.shtml#31 I think the next boots go as follows: EP5 Shawna
EP6 Alex
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VanQ1 66 desperate attention whore postings
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03-11-03, 00:03 AM (EST)
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34. "breaking the tribe, picking up sticks (your new tribemates)" |
I speculated last week, in the thread with Bunglers vidcaps, about the possibility of the chosen two (Jenna and Dave) being responsible for selecting the new tribes. S3, EACH TRIBE got to choose which 3 were their strongest, and then sent them on the mission which ended in the switch.
S4 was done strictly by luck of the draw.
S5 each individual had a chance to choose to switch. This season, I think that they will use a different method of determing the switch. And I think it might be that DAVE and JENNA have to choose the 3 people they will SEND TO THE OPPOSING TRIBE and which 2 you will keep with you.
I think this would be great, and would love to see how they would each think through their strategies for selecting who would stay and who would go.
Say for Jenna, would she decide to keep her closest allies Deena and Heidi, and send Christy and Jeanne. Knowing that she would definitely alienate them by sending them over, as well as sending 2 very strong tribemates to your opponent.
Same with Dave, he seems to have allied with Roger and Butch. But .. that means sending Matt and Alex, 2 very strong team members to the other side, to keep someone you trust. But most interesting of all, it also will reveal alliances to the other players, if you are not careful in your selections!
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-11-03, 01:33 AM (EST)
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38. "They don't call him..." |
EPM fer nuthin...
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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03-11-03, 11:37 AM (EST)
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46. "RESwitching" |
The choice selections would be different if Jenna and Dave get to farm out someone as opposed to selecting someone.I think Jenna and Dave will also have a differnet mindset in their selections. Jenna will no doubt pick for her own progress and Dave will largely select based on picking a winning team. Jenna would farm out Jeanne, Christy and Shawna
Reasons: J/C not in her alliance and Shawna is ill However, Dave would probably choose Heidi, Shawna and Deena
Reasons: Heidi athletic, Deena has been shown quite a bit with her conversation, seems outgoing/hard worker, Shawna b/c he is partial to her (allowed one poor lapse in judgment and he can't really know how ill she is I would gather) Dave would probably farm out: Matthew, Rob, Roger
Reasons: I just sense he is closer to Butch and I think Alex is the other "young" choice he would make. Jenna would probably choose: Rob, Alex, Butch
Reasons: Rob and Alex have clearly shown their appreciation of women, I don't believe Jenna has sensed anything from Matthew (he seems to try to keep his cool around the women) and Butch would be the final selection of a lesser desirable pick) The dynamics would change then but either way I speculate that Jenna is picking based on what she could do with or to her tribe while Dave is more inclined to pick based on what they could do for him.
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-11-03, 11:56 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: RESwitching" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 11:58 AM (EST)>The dynamics would change then but
>either way I speculate that
>Jenna is picking based on
>what she could do with
>or to her tribe while
>Dave is more inclined to
>pick based on what they
>could do for him. When I was in college, I once heard an interesting academic discussion (at least I thought it was interesting) regarding how boys and girls pick teammates when choosing up a team in the schoolyard. Basicly, girls are most likely going to choose their friends (irrespective of the talents of there friends in the game they are playing). They will almost always choose their best friend first. Boys choose the best athletes to be on their team. Having grown up a boy and finding it shocking that girl wouldn't pick the best available player when selecting teammates, I did an informal poll of my own. Every girl I spoke to said they would always pick their best friend first. That leads me to also believe that Heidi remains with Jenna. It also leads me to be surprised that Shawna isn't kept with Jenna (Unless last weeks' vote made it clear that Jenna is no longer part of the allaince or if Dave picks Shawna to be on his side since he doesn't know she is sick and he thinks she is the hottest alternative after Heidi and Jenna). Jenna's selection might just be an example of the different ways the sexes interact and not an example of her trying to get ahead. I agree Dave's picks will be made to improve his chance of winning competetions.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-11-03, 12:40 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: RESwitching" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 12:48 PM (EST)Even if Jenna considers Shawna to be part of the alliance, it's still difficult to envision why she'd keep her: 1) If it's a 3-3 swap, then Jenna can only keep two other women and her aliiance has three other members 2) Shawn's apparently sick -- a liability in both competitions and a liability to possibly leave the game at any moment due to illness... in either case, that's not someone you want on your team or in your alliance 3) If she sends Shawna to the other team, it's almost like a mercy killing, Shawna will more than likely be the first voted out yet will also not damage Jenna's gameplan. Jenna might even consider than trying to "help" Shawna get what it is that she wants -- namely out 4) If Shawna gets voted out of New Tambaqui, then Jeanne and Christy are now at a clear 2 vs. 3 disadvantage in the tribe and, if gender lines persist, are also likely to also get voted out by the men and be gone by merge-time -- hopefully getting two people off the jury that might have not had a high standing of her. To me the surprise her IS NOT Jenna opting to send Shawna to the other tribe (or even Dave possibly choosing to TAKE SHAWNA from the other tribe, after all the men's gushing, Dave clearly might be letting Little Dave be doing the thinking on that decision.) The surprise to me would be that Jeanne and Christy would opt to join the men in voting Shawna out as the first bootee of New Tambaqui... I know they might fell bad for her, but doing so would seem to seal their own fates. But how knows, maybe this does happen and Burnett uses it to contrast the compassionate side of Jeanne/Christy versus the previous attitude shown by Jenna/Heidi/Deena in Ep4. After 12 days of women vs. men, you'd think that Christy and Jeanne would be simply hoping to survive six days in "enemy territory" and be planning on hoping to re-align with Jenna/Heidi/Deena after a merge after, but apparently that doesn't happen... Is it because the the politics in the women's tribe run deeper than we might think? Is it because Jenna and Heidi decide to go back to their original plan and hope to ally with any manipulate some men??
-SB
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-11-03, 01:19 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: RESwitching" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 01:21 PM (EST)What bothers me about the swap scenarios being discussed is that mostly they revolve around Jenna and Dave getting decision-making power on what to do with other people. It was one thing to have Jake and Jan select their own tribemates at the beginning of the game when no one knew anyone else. But would MB give two contestants carte blanche to restructure the tribes to their own liking in the middle of the game? It allows them an opportunity to try to manipulate the outcome of the game that the other contestants don't have. Wouldn't this just be inviting a lawsuit? It's possible that Dave and Jenna could earn this right, by winning a challenge or by some other means, but it still seems like a very tenuous gamble for MB to take, imho. If there is a swap, the tribes may shake out the way that people are predicting, but I think this has to be arrived at either by chance or by a process that involves everyone.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-11-03, 02:49 PM (EST)
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53. ""Fairness"" |
At 6v6 a three person swap results in what are basicly 4 seperate 3 person alliances...two on each tribe. This is about as fair a swap situation as possible in this game. A completely random process has been done before. Besides, it seems unlikely that a random selection would result in the "New" tribe make-up as we are predicting...so closely resembling the tribes that Jenna and Dave would select if given the power. Having Dave and Jenna each select 3 members of the other tribe would seem to cancel out the others attempt at selecting the stronger team. With the merge not far away, any unfair advantage will soon disappear and the remaining tribe members will have the opportunity to realign or reestablish their old alliances if they choose. I don't believe MB could be accused of being unfair with a 3 person swap, even if Dave and Jenna are "tempted" to make some changes to the tribe dynamics and current alliances.
Krautboy
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-11-03, 02:52 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: RESwitching" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 02:55 PM (EST)First, there's been some good thinking around here on this stuff, as well as the great vidcap stuff (did *I* ever say anything about the non-value of vidcaps? Me? Noooo, never....  ) Second, I have to agree with Brownroach that MB having two contestants given this much power, to swap tribe members at whim, seems a little too much. So I'm wondering if they won't draw names out of a hat or something. Comments? Edited to add: Just saw Krautboy's last post (53?) about the fairness of them selecting. I disagree. I don't think that it IS fair. Not that MB *has* to be fair about anything. Sure they balance each other out, but unless Dave and Jenna WIN the opportunity to do this, I'd have to wonder about them being given the power to select others.   
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-11-03, 04:39 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: RESwitching" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 04:55 PM (EST)Aren't Dave and Jenna the youngest male and female left in the game? How would this be any different than Jake and Jan -- the two oldest folks -- getting to pick alternate picking the initial teams last time? Does the Amazon have some tales about the strength of youth, etc. (kinda like Thailand supposedly had for elders) Ya the survivor's "know" each other now, but Dave still really knows nothing about the women other than their names and what they look like. And the same applies to Jenna re: the men, so any "advantage" in that regard is completely offset. My latest guess is that they alternate picking men and women... Jenna gets the first woman pick and grabs Heidi, Dave then goes for the boy's last remaining babe that's on the board -- Shawna. And then Jenna then goes her other alliance-mate Deena and Dave then gets Christy and Jeanne as the leftovers. On the men's side Dave gets the first men's pick and takes Butch or Roger, Jenna then grabs Rob (he seemed to catch her eye.) Dave then takes whoever is left of Butch and Roger and Jenna gets left with Matthew and Alex. I think the women's side of that scenario is quite plausible... the only part that I'm not too clear on why Dave goes for Butch and Roger over Rob, Matthew and Alex. The only reasons that come to mind is that possibly Dave knows that Alex got injured earlier in the day and maybe it's serious enough that it might slow him down in challenges and perhaps Matthew is still very much the outsider that he's been presented to be. And that still doesn't explain Rob -- maybe he just figures Rob would kill him if Rob learned that Dave was responsible for Rob not having a chance to be in the same tribe as Jenna and Heidi for a while  The other possibility here is that they have to each start with the opposite sex, and in that case Dave gets to pick the first woman and grabs Shawna (who seems to be the favorite of all the young guys other than Rob, and hell, Dave's going to pick for himself first before he starts picking for Rob) and Jenna dodges a huge bullet in the process. Jenna then quickly grabs Heidi and Dave goes for the last young girl in the game -- Christy. Jenna then quickly grabs Deena and Dave gets left with Jeanne. On the men's side Jenna gets first pick and grabs the guy that caught her eye -- Rob. Dave follows with Roger or Butch. Jenna then grabs probably Alex, but maybe MAtthew, and Dave takes which ever of Butch/Roger he didn't take the first time. Jenna then grabs which ever of Alex/Matthew she passed on last time as the leftover. This later scenario makes a little more sense to me, it explains why Dave let's Rob go... because he didn't have any choice.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-11-03, 09:11 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: RESwitching" |
I've been toying with different scenarios and I think if Dave and Jenna have to pick teams it will probably be done as it was in Thailand, Jenna has to pick a guy first and Dave has to pick a girl first, then they alternate. So, let's try this scenario:ROUND ONE: Treemail arrives with key to mystery box and instructions for youngest tribe member to open the box. Box contains map for Jenna and Dave to follow on "quest,' they take off and get to spend the night together on a date, thinking they are ambassadors for their tribes. The next morning it turns out (twist) they are the "tribal elders" (how this fits with Amazon traditions I have no idea) and have to select new tribes. ROUND TWO: Jenna picks Rob, goofy-looking younger guy represents her chance to finally play the sex strategy. Dave picks Shawna, prefered by 3 of 4 young Tambaqui including Dave. ROUND THREE: Jenna picks her closest ally, Heidi. Dave picks team leader Roger. ROUND FOUR: Jenna picks Alex so she and Heidi can really run with the sex strategy. Dave picks youngest remaining Jaburu, Christy. ROUND FIVE: Jenna picks Deena, the only one left from her alliance to choose. Dave picks Butch, mutual ally of himself and Roger, over mistrusted Matthew. ROUND SIX: Matthew is the only guy left, joins New Jaburu. Jeanne is the only gal left, joins New Tambaqui. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-11-03, 01:16 PM (EST)
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49. "Alliance Preservation" |
By process of elimination we are left with:New Jaburu : Deena, Jenna, Heidi, Matthew, Rob, and Alex
New Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Butch, Christy, Jeanne, and Shawna. The only way I can imagine this result is if Jenna and Dave are given the task of selecting 3 members to be sent to the other tribe. Both Dave and Jenna make selections trying to preserve their current alliances (which is an underlying theme in the previews), which are ultimately challenged after the swap creates 3v3 voting blocks...until theu realize Shawna wants to go home.
Krautboy
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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03-11-03, 01:57 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: Alliance Preservation" |
BrownRoach I agree with that and there are too many ways for the tribes to change also depending upon how they are picked but I wonder if MB is going to have them to do it this way for the same reasons you believe it would not be conducive unlike Jan and Jake when they went by barely any information except sight and job description and hometown.Interestingly enough in pursuing the theme of men vs. women and their own choices of playing, flirting, aligning, etc. this would be yet another way to show the audience the dynamics of how a man and female play this game against each other and with each other. Take two young individuals (which in this whole set up of Amazon is perfect to have the "young" do this) of opposite sex and see what they do with the opportunity presented to them. Will they select along stereotypical methods (like I stated in my prior post) will they base it on appearance, on who they could manipulate or who will lead them to a winning team. As the seasons have progressed, MB in actuality has given more power to the players, what they choose to do with it though is another aspect of the game. In looking back (and I know I forgot stuff but this is generally what happened) First Survivor - guinea pig episode, traditional merge with ambassadors to pick new name, etc.
Australia - typical merger correct? (why do I always forget about Australia) but let's focus more on when the twists really started: Africa he devised the first twist - they selected their players not knowing and wham switched now see what they do with it Marqueses - threw them a surprise on a random stand on a circle then brought two people together to devise the new tribe name, etc. Second time happening so there was no real need to REALLY spice it up; it was still slightly new to us and he introduced some other factors in the game. Thailand - had Jan and Jake pick their tribes THEN gave them a decision on their own to change their tribe (no one bit of course) then faked merged them Amazon - he has got to do a little bit differently but still perhaps give them some power to make a decision here because why go backwards when he is probably enjoying the whole sociological aspect of these people making decisions and trying to survive as a result of them. In this scenario though, he is giving two people ALL the power as opposed to individually saying you can switch if you want, no one bit. This time, you two, I'm giving you the choices and power here and note your alliances, friendships enemies what have you are now in your hands. While I'm not positive this is how it will be as the possibilities can be total blindfolded random, all in one but by choice, swap out three of your own or pick three of the other, MB is going to have to keep the "twist" fresh AND progress it along somewhat.
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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-11-03, 04:02 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: On the other hand..." |
SurvivinDawg:I am not sure how I think it is going to go. Currently the thinking is that Matthew, Christy, Butch, Heidi, Rob, and Deena are the final 6. That leaves Jeanne, Alex, Shawna, Dave, Roger and Jenna as getting booted (or for those that feel it is Jenna where I put Deena that would work also). If we look at the tribes as they are talking about: Jeanne, Christy, Shawna, Butch, Roger and Dave at Tambaqui and Deena, Heidi, Jenna, Rob, Alex and Matthew at Jaburu. So, how do end up with the final 6? Christy and Butch would have to bond and protect each other. I can see that happening. Matthew would have to get in with Deena (or Jenna) and Rob to make the final 6 and boot out Heidi in position 6. Let's assume that Rob goes 5th, because of some alliance. If C/O is correct that would mean Christy 4th, Butch 3rd, Matt 2nd and Deena (or Jenna) 1st. How would Matt make it that far? The only way I can see him making that far is by winning individual immunities. But then, why would they not have booted him before that? Curiouser and Curiouser Boot Ed
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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03-11-03, 04:18 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Picking for purpose" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 04:19 PM (EST)Booted I'm not quite with you on the final 6 there. Jenna is a major contender to be the final two woman.
(sorry Booted just saw you intermixed Deena/Jenna) In trying to figure out why or how D/J would pick who they pick like I said, their thought process is huge. We know for sure Deena and Matthew are on the same tribe, that is pretty much it FOR SURE. It would not even surprise me in the least if Jenna didn't select Heidi for her tribe just so Jenna has open room to ensnare all the men. Women with women, the two alike see a partner of commiseration. Put a man there, two friends could be the worse enemies and in fact, two men who are lifelong friends could stop speaking b/c of a woman so whatever alliances (and I use that term very loosely this season) there are, once the tribes are mixed up, again, ego, competiveness are going to rear their ugly heads here. Not too mention the fact again that the alliances we have seen this season are by no means alliances that we counted on in the past to keep their word. I have yet to see that happen here even Jenna/Heidi - don't be so sure of their closeness. Quite honestly Jeanne/Joanna probably had the tightest bond. This is speaking from a woman's point of view. The young men nope, not them either. Butch? Yeah Butch'll keep his word and Roger would with Butch. Dave has the maturity to do so also but I do not believe the "alliances" as we "see" them holding tight like a Lex/Tom/Ethan/Kim despite a switch here
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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-12-03, 12:36 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: The switch" |
I have gone on record(if anyone cares) saying before S6 started that a merge would happen in Episode 5 while the players had 12. The preview indicates SOMETHING is happening in episode 5- either the early merge or the swap. The arguments for the swap are VERY strong and have to say that I am teetering between the two possibilities.A merge now is still possible. The men could easily point to Shawna as being sick and saying she has to go and Jeanne jumping on board faster then you can say Cute Girls. Then Alex gets hurt and the same thing happens again.... all the girls point to Alex and say "now it is his turn" and use their assets to convince Matt, Rob and Dave to vote Alex out. Do I like my theory? Not as much as before. The swap and your theories actually seem to make MORE sense. I am just throwing this out so you all can laugh at it and poke holes, and in the off chance that I am right I can say "I told you so." LOL
Peanut Butter Jeff
A John Nash disciple
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snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings
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03-12-03, 04:22 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: The switch" |
Being the untrusting and suspicous New Englander that I am I have to question the reliability of UNPROVEN Spoilers.1. Who the heck is BostonGuy? I have never heard this name before and I've been an avid Survivor addict and speculator since day 1. I do not put any faith whatsoever in unproven spoiler resources, so until this Boston dud comes up with somthing of factual substance I don't buy it. 2. Chill One was WRONG on his boot order. Okay, semantics you say...I beg to differ. Sure he had the first 4 people but not in the correct order which makes a HUGE difference in the end game and causes me to seriously question the reliabilty of his source. Is is not possible that he could be wrong about the order of the F4??? 3. More regarding CO... "Jana" is a name that is completely ambiguous to us. That name can clearly be applied to any of the women in tribe except Christy and Heidi considering the language barrier. 4. Chats - C'mon people MB and his minions coach these chats. Any contestant caught spilling the beans is fined, and heavily. I distrust anything coming from See-BS. 5. More CO...do you put your trust in the interperatation of a boat driver on the Amazon? These are poor people and MB could have easily bought them off to create this spoiler and throw people off. Keep in mind this is SEE-BS a big wealthy American TV network, anything is within their power. Then again maybe I'm just paranoid. Of course I am willing to change my POV if given substatiated evidence that CO's F4 is correct. Any takers?????????????????
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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03-12-03, 06:17 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: The switch" |
I don't feel 100% positive about the new tribal line-ups. Mostly this centers around where Heidi winds up. Re: Boston Guy, his direct quote was:let's just say that after the "switch" rob and (either/or both) heidi and jenna take out ALEX!!!!!!!!!! So Rob's little coup may not necessitate his being on the same tribe as both Jenna and Heidi, just one of them. The cap of Heidi saying she's "shocked" while wearing her yellow buff could occur before she has to move her cuteness over to Tambaqui. It really comes down to how the picking is done. It's probably either random names out of a hat, or alternate picking like Jan and Jake did in S5 (I'm leaning toward the latter). I do think that Jenna is not going to pick Shawna under any circumstances, so Shawna will end up on Tambaqui. But I think it's possible that Christy winds up on Jaburu instead of Heidi. Then Rob/Alex could be on either tribe, as could Butch/Roger, but it's not likely that Jenna would choose in a way that she'd wind up with both Butch AND Roger. So most likely Rob/Alex are selected for Jaburu.
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ARRRRRRR!!!!
Good catch, WJ, I think it definitely means MB is going all out for the ratings/demographics numbers. It may mean more than that, dunno.
