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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-09-03, 11:28 AM (EST) "Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" LAST EDITED ON 03-10-03 AT 10:08 AM (EST) Krautboy managed to twist my arm, so I’ll start this thread in an attempt to narrow down the shortlist for the next bootee. This week seems tough, so I wanted to tie various spoilers together here. I apologize for the length of this post in advance. It’s kind of like working backwards from the end of the game to possible bootees for ep5. FINAL 4 SPECULATION Pepe noticed elsewhere: ---- I've had this feeling all along since watching the first episode that Deena and Christy are going to carry each other pretty far and we'll see how the swap/merge unfolds to give them some new people to team up with. I can totally see Matthew and Butch being the type of personalities that would immediately click with Deena and Christy. That's perhaps the final four or at least 4 of the final 6 right there. ---- Given similar work ethic in the game, I think Deena, Christy, Matt, Butch would easily align to form a final 4 pact – if given the opportunity. All four have significant weight loss spoilers and also fit the ChillOne final 4: #4: deaf person = Christy #3: older guy = Butch I say Butch, because he has a solid 31 lbs weight loss spoiler, Roger has none. Final 2: a boy and a girl My current perspective on the ChillOne: I'm viewing the ChillOne info as useful for a general guide, but wrong on specifics. The Brian/Ryan, Daniel, JoAnna, + a fourth was clearly on the money in terms of the first four regardless of order. Yet, the description for the fourth person was only right in specifying the gender. I'm not attaching much value to age indicators in CO's intel based on Janet's boot. If anything, his age estimations need to be inflated. Deena has the best weight loss spoiler (30 lbs) for the final 2 girl. Moreover, big idiot makes a great point about her being the swan. Matt has the best weight loss spoiler for the final 2 boy. So, final 2 could well be Deena + Matt FINAL 6 SPECULATION Per Milkshaky we know Heidi is #6. (For links see TDT). That leaves spot #5 for the other significant (on return) weight loss spoiler: Rob FINAL 8 SPECULATION Now, the big wildcard in all of this speculation is Jeanne. A one-time poster in the ChillOne thread here at SB, EyeKnowOne, posted: ---- FYI: jeanne hebert lost in excess of 25 lbs from start to end ---- Yet, we don't know any critical details. Is "end" at the time of boot? After 39 days? When she got back to the US? For now, we could say she is safe for a while, possibly longer. Per Milkshaky, Heidi and a friend of Heidi did "well" in the finals. If Heidi goes ep11, then "well" probably means around final 6. If the friend is Jenna, Jenna could go ep10 (or maybe ep9 if there's some CillOne TJG connection). BOOTEE SHORTLIST FOR EP5 Shawna, Alex, Dave, Roger have no weight loss spoilers, nor indications that tie them to a future episode. If nothing concrete comes up before Thursday, the best we can do is collect a bunch of “maybes” or “maybe nots” for each of these four. Maybe Shawna *Snewser has several sources saying Shawna doesn't go far – it’s pretty safe to assume that she’ll end up in loser lodge. *OFG theory: featured *New poster KillerDanaH said if Shawna doesn't leave ep 4 she'll leave ep5. However, waterbug pointed out that this poster has not provided anything else on Shwana we didn't already know. Maybe Dave *Irony in the editing. Dave in ep4: this was the perfect survivor day Dave in preview: So there's a naked girl in the shower that you can see into, and I'm thinking, this is the greatest thing that's ever happened to me. So, maybe it’s time for the perfect boot *OFG theory: featured Maybe not Dave *He’s so all over this promo, maybe he’s too much in our face Maybe Alex *He’s getting injured. *OFG theory: featured Maybe not Alex *A CBS teaser explicitly mentions his injury - typically survivors mentioned in teasers are safe (oh, and according to ChillOne, injury was never a reason for anybody to leave the game – for what it’s worth). Maybe not Roger *OFG theory: not featured Well, not a lot to go on for this week. Moreover, a merge/swap/cohabitation this week adds to the uncertainty. However, a swap could provide the opportunity for a final 4 of Deena/Matt/Butch/Christy to align… Poke holes, add maybes, maybe nots. This could be the toughest week of S6. forehead Edited to add link to Milkshaky info.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... KeithFan 03-09-03 1  RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... Krautboy 03-09-03 2    RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... FSUGUY 03-09-03 3  Awesome, forehead! bebekid 03-09-03 4  The case for Roger djandy 03-09-03 5  RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... big idiot 03-09-03 6    Shawna Krautboy 03-09-03 7        RE: Shawna PepeLePew13 03-09-03 8        RE: Shawna Kokoro 03-10-03 11            Agree bebekid 03-10-03 13  RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... SurvivinDawg 03-09-03 9    RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... PepeLePew13 03-09-03 10        RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... SurvivinDawg 03-10-03 12        RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... iheartmagilla 03-10-03 16  RE: Narrowing down the bootee short... samboohoo 03-10-03 14    Milkshaky info forehead 03-10-03 15  What about a fake swap Booted 03-10-03 17

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KeithFan 7422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-03, 12:10 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" My gut says Shawna simply as a mercy boot, and everything else just has too many if/maybes. I agree this is the hardest week yet to figure out! So much depends apon where the chips fall.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-09-03, 12:12 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" Nice thread Forehead! (Hey, that rhymes ) Because the tribe structure going into the IC this week is still up in the air, this thread is the best we've got to work with at this point... Krautboy   Top

FSUGUY 447 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-09-03, 12:40 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" shawna this week - low promo footage. alex - hurt - soon. those 2 in next 3 weeks to meet in LL. who else - Roger, jeanne or dave? I'm just trying to get the LL at 7-0. good final post to start this!   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-09-03, 12:57 PM (EST) 4. "Awesome, forehead!" Fabulous analysis! I think you may have it here! I can totally see Matt and Deena being the final 2. I rewatched ep 4 last night and they are my favorites as far as finalists. They sooo have great stories already! Matt- He talked about starting off on the wrong foot with his friendships with Dan and Ryan, how his ego could take it (the snubbing by others), how he knew that fishing could be important, and then catching that gorgeous peacock bass. Deena- Larry Johnson awarded Deena "Female Diva of the Week" in part because of her brilliant move to allign with the young women because she could persuade them better than an older crowd. Certainly the smartest strategic move so far on S6. Now whether or not she can/will maintain that commitment for the entire game, we'll see. If Deena is in the final 4 with Christy, Matt and Butch, then something took place (merge or switch) that forced her to re-allign, but ended up being an even better alliance.   Top

djandy 1711 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-09-03, 02:42 PM (EST) 5. "The case for Roger" Since typically the people featured in previews and teasers as being weak or in trouble are safe, both Shawna and Alex were featured so I'm guessing they stay. Also, this season both Daniel and Joanna were practically edited out of the episode before they were booted, and Roger was very UTR last episode. The first several episodes established Roger's bossiness, and Matthew, Rob, and Alex have all mentioned wanting to vote him off. Also, Daniel mentioned in his web chat that IF there is a merge he could see Roger grating on the nerves of the ladies. If we speculate that there is a merge/swap/cohabitation this week, this would set this up nicely. My logical choice would be a Shawna boot, except for the very fact that CBS featured her crying and whining again. I think if she was the bootee they wouldn't show that because she looked like she felt better at tribal council and CBS wouldn't have highlighted her continued weakness and would have left us wondering if she got better. Then again, I voted against the CBS gimme "girl power", so you never know.   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-09-03, 05:16 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" Forehead, Great post! You are correct about this being a very difficult week for boot picking due to the following: 1) lots of great boot candidates, 2) no dominant tribe, 3) and a potential swap on the horizon. I'm also in agreement with you on the final four and it being a long term result of an immediate swap. In the thread "contents of the mystery box" I theorize on how the box plays into predicting the swap outcome, I won't go into that here, I'll just post the potential outcome of the swap and begin to analyze it for Ep 5 bootee: New Jaburu: Deena, Christy, Jeanne, Matt, Butch, Rob New Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Alex, Heidi, Shawna, Jenna In agreement with Forehead, I have the final four in one tribe. By retro-probability, this decreases their chance of losing the immunity challenge in Ep 5. Therefore I'm choosing the Ep 5 bootee from the new tambaquis. I think that the strongest argument can be made for Shawna. Now that Jenna and Heidi can finally use their "cuteness" to create loyal male minions, their need for Shawna decreases. Overall reasons for her boot: 1) She wants out, 2) the women need her less, 3) she is unable to contribute equally to camp upkeep 4) less able to contribute in challenges 5) the men want to keep numerical superiority. 6) we know the immunity challenge has a physical component (rowing), too prevent another trip to TC they may look to jettison the weakest. Argument against: 1) Weakness too featured in previews (I see it as the continuation of her storyline, people will want to tune in and see what happens to her). 2) Perhaps she can hide it when swapped. Doubt it, she seems like she is emotionally out of the game. Also, Heidi and Jenna may offer her up for slaughter anyway. Just some thoughts, BI   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-09-03, 07:48 PM (EST) 7. "Shawna " BI, agree with your assessment of Shawna's chances...not good. Shawna is the obvious boot this week. MB cannot control who gets voted off, but he does control the editing. Shawna is shown in the previews wallowing in her self pity, which neither Deena or Jeanne seem willing to tolerate. So it seems obvious that if the tribes do not swap, Shawna is gone, she doesn't want to be there, and the alliance no longer has any reason to keep her around now that they hold a solid voting advantage. The IC seems to involve paddling a boat, which clearly favors the men if they do not swap, so it's not likely the men lose this IC if there is no swap. This scenario is too obvious, so MB probably uses the swap to create doubt about Shawna's departure this week. She very likely is swapped to the other tribe, where the storyline will be all about the decision between voting out the injured Alex, or the sickly Shawna, and in the end Shawna will leave because she wants out, but the editing will hide that in order to create suspense where there isn't much. MB may also be willing to concede a boot, making it a secondary storyline, because he's got the other interesting tribal dynamics going on in EP5. Krautboy   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-03, 08:51 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Shawna " >She very likely is swapped to the >other tribe, where the storyline >will be all about the >decision between voting out the >injured Alex, or the sickly >Shawna, and in the end >Shawna will leave because she >wants out, but the editing >will hide that in order >to create suspense where there >isn't much. This also ties in neatly with the rumours of Alex and Shawna dating -- the swap goes through and they're both on the same tribe. Alex gets hurt, Shawna gripes and Alex commiserates with her about how the others aren't too kind to their plights, the tribe loses Ep.5 IC and cut loose Shawna to get rid of some 'dead weight', Alex is still hobbling in Ep.6 and the tribe again loses IC so they cut Alex loose. Shawna sees Alex coming into LL and say "I knew it, they're not sympathetic to us" ... and bingo, a romance blossoms as they spend time playing doctor with each other. "When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-10-03, 04:53 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Shawna " Exactly....and really, no matter what happens, Shawna will go because she just doesn't care anymore. Now if she ~weren't~ shown whining and crying the previews, this week would be a lot harder for us to figure out, since it has happened before that certain contestants, given a few days (3-6), have bounced back. So really, we can thank MB for handing out an obvious boot this time around.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-10-03, 09:48 AM (EST) 13. "Agree" I agree about Shawna going no matter which tribe she is on. The teams are even at 6, which means no one will be sitting out challenges. If she is so weak, and does not care, she will drag down whichever team she is on. It's always difficult to determine a boot when there is a possible swap. In S4, I remember voting for Sarah in the swap episode because I knew either tribe would see how worthless she was and get rid of her. Unless someone changes my mind, I'm thinking Shawna this week (mercy boot), Alex next week (also mercy boot), then Dave last one out before jury because he is an immunity threat. -whose subject lines are starting to look like AyaK's   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-03, 09:05 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" It's been a busy weekend, and I haven't had time to digest this excellent thread. I will try to contribute to it tomorrow, but will make a couple of observations now: 1) This episode will indeed be tough, what with a possible merge/swap, and the all-important information of who wins Immunity. 2) The first four bootees were pretty obvious, although the order needed a bit of analysis. Now (as y'all have said), there's a group of three: Alex, Shawna, and Dave. 3) Daniel's various chats and interviews show an extreme dislike of Alex, probably because Alex and Shawna are doing it Dawgstyle () while sick-with-jealousy Dan is left out. 4) IMHO, Dave and Shawna are the likeliest next two boots. More tomorrow... Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-03, 10:43 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" I'll be very interested in hearing why you think it's Dave and not Alex that may be the next male to get the boot. This next boot is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in a long while in Survivor, one that hasn't grabbed our attention since oh about S2! "When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-03, 06:14 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" I'll be very interested in hearing why you think it's Dave an not Alex that may be the next male to get the boot. Just the way that the three have been portrayed. We haven't seen an Alex story arc (who invented that term?) yet. I think we've seen Shawna's (and will continue to in Ep. 5), and Dave has also received face time in that strange way (strange to me, anyway) that suggests he might be a target soon. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

iheartmagilla 8 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 03-10-03, 11:02 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist - Dave?" "I'll be very interested in hearing why you think it's Dave and not Alex that may be the next male to get the boot" Dave may get the boot sooner than Alex for a couple of reasons - if he served as the ambassador for the swap and had a direct hand in choosing the new tribe, and this new "power tribe" loses immunity this week (and perhaps next?) then others may blame him for their loss - also, knowing his strength, may decide he's only going to be an immunity threat later anyway, so why not off him now. I'm betting that Alex and Shawna go one right after the other (due to injury/sickness/dating reports), but can also make a case (albeit weak?) for Dave going before Alex. Just my thoughts.   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-03, 09:56 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Narrowing down the bootee shortlist" Agree with a Matt, Butch, Deena, Christy final four. I think Butch by far is the safest person out there right now. And I think Deena is a smart player (kind of what I thought Helen was in Thailand). Deena will use Jenna and Heidi, but I think she and Christy are the true alliance. Short term I see Shawna probably as the next boot. She had a whole episode (Trappped) devoted to her. The sick story will fade out in Ep. 5 like the big Ted/Ghandia explosion --the big climax, then the end with Ghandia's boot. The women are falling apart and should lose the IC. Deena, Heidi and Jenna got what they needed out of keeping Shawna. She's now a liability. She will go, then Jeanne. However, Jeanne will not be the hard working provider Jenna and Heidi hoped she'd be. I'm still unsure about the exit order of Alex, Dave, Rodger and Jeanne. Can someone provide more info. on the milkshaky/heidi spoiler?   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-10-03, 10:12 AM (EST) 15. "Milkshaky info" >Can someone provide more info. on the milkshaky/heidi spoiler? I updated the original post to add a link to TDT, who has a few links to Milkshaky posts on Heidi. Milkshaky is poster on another board, who identified Heidi as a contestant before CBS released any cast info. Milkshaky also provided weightloss evidence for Heidi and certainly has the insight track. If (s)he says Heidi goes ep11, you can count on it.   Top

Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-10-03, 11:30 AM (EST) 17. "What about a fake swap" If this was already said somewhere else, I apologize. First, what if each person is matched up with someone from the other tribe for the reward challenge. Winner gets dinner, shower, etc. That would explain the Canoe part of the videos. Maybe the box contains sticks and the order they are matched up is by the “color” or “length” of the sticks that they pick. Then it is an elimination challenge with a couple being eliminated, as each part is done, similar to what they did in Thailand. That would explain the fact that it appears that it is Matteo in the boat the Deena. Then, what if Dave and Jenna meet and are told something like “You must pick 3 members of your tribe to go live with the other tribe”. Never says switch, just something like “go live with”. Now, each tribe has 3 “new members” that everyone gets to know and start to align with. As a part of this each tribe gets a reward meal at their camp once the new tribe members move. That would take care of the reward part of the show. When they go to the immunity challenge JP something like, “Switch, I never said switch, I said go live at." You must compete with your original tribe. That would allow for the “shock” that Heidi has. Well, let me know what you agree with and what you think is bunk… Boot Ed   Top

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