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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS

VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Overview

We'll get right to the point this week:

- The men clearly win this week's reward challenge, the only question is whether the challenge is the fish challenge where sHawna sits out or the fire challenge where Jenna sits out.

- If the women lose the immunity challenge, the Shawna focus would clearly seem to be misdirection and JOANNA seems the likely woman to be booted

- Although it's not ironlad, the evidence seems to lean in the favor of the men winning the immunity challenge, therefore JOANNA is the bootee prediction. The other scenario under which a non-Shawna booting makes sense is if the women win immunity, in which case a man would have to go. Unfortunately if such a scenario occurs, it's unclear who might be booted, so MATTHEW seems just as likely as any other male to select as an alternate bootee.

Full Prediction Logic

This week's prediction logic (or explanation of the lack there of) is brought to you by Krautboy

This week MB has pushed Shawna and Matthew into the spotlight. Both are the focus of this weeks TV promos and website teasers and both are “Trapped”; Matthew by his previous association with Ryan and Daniel, and Shawna because she wants to leave the game, but can’t because the “new alliance” needs her in order to keep control. It appears MB is just using them to divert attention away from this weeks attempt at a “surprise” boot.
JABURU:

THE CHILLONE:

Had we not had access to The ChillOne’s “intel”, Joanna probably could be considered a “surprise” boot…but we DO have the intel and it tells us to focus our attention on Joanna…

WEIGHT LOSS:

Weight loss reports support Joanna leaving this week…for the Jaburu women, Joanna, Shawna and Jenna are the EP4 boot candidates based solely on weight loss information.

STRATEGIES REVEALED:

As we’ve seen time and again, strategies revealed to the viewers do not usually succeed. Jeanne and Joanna’s plan to put a target on Deena’s back by “initiating her” as tribe leader, appears to fail when Deena forms a dominant “new alliance”. Joanna becomes the likely target… on the wrong side of the 4-3 voting block.

OFG THEORY:

Even the OFG Theory points to Joanna this week. She was featured in the telltale promo vidcaps, both in recycled and new footage…

FACE TIME:

MB hid Daniel from the audience in the week before his boot by making him invisible, in an attempt to have the audience forget about him as a boot candidate. MB appears to have done the same thing again with Joanna last week. She had no confessionals and was edited without conflict. She was being set up as this week’s “surprise boot”, when Shawna “toughs it out for the team”…

CBS WEBSITE:

“A new alliance in the women's tribe thinks it's unstoppable. But when an illness hits Shawna, the power may be back up for grabs.”
This week the alliance (which Janet mentioned in her chat) is revealed to the viewers. Deena, Shawna, Heidi and Jenna think they’re “unstoppable” with a 4-3 voting advantage. “Illness hits Shawna” and she wants out of the game, at which point the “power may be back up for grabs” at 3-3.

JP COMMENTS:

“But with Shawna . . . just let me say that wanting to quit and being able to quit are two different things, and when you see the episode next week you'll see what I mean"

Shawna realizes she is “Trapped” and can not leave the game before the “New Alliance” can vote out Joanna…

TAMBAQUI:

The story over in the Tambaqui tribe appears to be secondary to thinks going on at Jaburu…

JP COMMENTS:

”Now Matthew is one of those people who just doesn't get the game, either - he is an outcast who associated himself with Daniel and Ryan early, and now he is in a precarious situation.”
Matthew is “Trapped” and must “craft a new strategy for survival”.

CBS WEBSITE:

“The men go out on a group expedition, but pointedly leave Matthew behind, leading him to craft a new strategy for survival.”
The weight loss information suggests that his strategy is probably successful…

WEIGHT LOSS:

Weight loss reports for Matthew suggest that he is still safe and that Dave, Roger and Alex would be the more likely EP4 boot candidates if the Tambaqui men went to TC.

EDITING:

Since the editing focuses on Matthew as the only boot target from the men’s tribe and weight loss information suggests he sticks around for a while longer, we can conclude that the men probably win the IC this week.

RECYCLED MISDIRECTION:

The vidcap promos this week also contain several recycled shots: vidcaps of the men looking dejected, as well as the women celebrating a Challenge victory. This misdirection in vidcaps suggests they don’t have any real footage of the women winning this week…MB and CBS know that showing the women winning is good for ratings...but what do they do if the women happen to lose both challenges?... Show old footage of them winning to let the viewing public THINK they will win again…

CONCLUSION:

Looks like the men sweep the challenges, while ChillOne sweeps the first four boots…and the Immunity Idol takes revenge on Joanna.