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"Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-03, 02:19 PM (EST)
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"Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"

If Joanna is gone in EP3 and Daniel follows in EP4, it appears that Christy would be the likely target of the Jaburu women at their next TC.

However, we have weight loss information and the ChillOne Spoiler that suggest she survives past the merge. How does this happen?

We have had several versions of a swap/twist in previous editions. Will she saved by a swap?

We also have the ChillOne prediction that the tribes will merge earlier than usual. Is this the boatdriver’s misinterpretation of a swap, or did he observe an early merge that will save Christy?

It doesn’t seem like the logistics of the game would allow both a swap and an early merge. So if we have both, the merge would happen at the usual time.

Thoughts?



Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? cowboyroo 02-23-03 1
 RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? big idiot 02-23-03 2
 RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? LadyT 02-23-03 3
 RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? SurvivinDawg 02-24-03 4
   RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? VerucaSalt 02-24-03 5
       RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? snoocharoo 02-24-03 7
           RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? SurvivinDawg 02-25-03 23
   What might bite Rob in the but? colleenwannabe 03-04-03 42
 RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? esquire 02-24-03 6
 Young Women vs Older... TribalTex29 02-24-03 8
   RE: Young Women vs Older... smrtNsassybnkr 02-24-03 9
       RE: Young Women vs Older... PepeLePew13 02-24-03 13
 Scenario for a Swap... IceCat 02-24-03 10
   RE: Scenario for a Swap... survivorscott 02-24-03 11
   RE: Scenario for a Swap... dabo 02-24-03 12
   Where's Ryan? Krautboy 02-24-03 14
       RE: Where's Ryan? cowboyroo 02-25-03 15
           Well there it is then... IceCat 02-25-03 19
           RE: Where's Ryan? SaphireLady 02-25-03 20
       Where's Janet's Rope... IceCat 02-25-03 18
       RE: Where's Ryan? Brownroach 02-25-03 25
           Determined not Dejected Krautboy 02-25-03 28
   RE: Scenario for a Swap... anotherkim 02-25-03 16
       Men vs Women WAS a risk... IceCat 02-25-03 17
           RE: Men vs Women WAS a risk... phonarr 02-26-03 29
           No Merger? (was: Men vs Women WAS a... WatcherX 03-02-03 30
   RE: Scenario for a Swap... Miss Scarlet 02-25-03 26
   RE: Scenario for a Swap... red and white 02-25-03 27
 New scenario... IceCat 02-25-03 21
   RE: New scenario... Krautboy 02-25-03 22
 General Comments SurvivinDawg 02-25-03 24
 RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? Brownroach 03-03-03 31
   RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? Q 03-03-03 32
       RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? Brownroach 03-03-03 34
   RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? jsanb 03-03-03 33
   RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? frisky 03-03-03 35
       RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? Brownroach 03-03-03 36
           RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? jsanb 03-04-03 37
               RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge? lizziegirl 03-04-03 39
       How about NO MERGE? ElroyJetson 03-04-03 38
           RE: How about NO MERGE? frisky 03-04-03 40
               Question? jkokoj 03-04-03 41
                   RE: Question? frisky 03-04-03 43
                       Why there WILL be a merge SurvivinDawg 03-04-03 44
                           RE: Why there WILL be a merge Q 03-04-03 45
                               RE: Why there WILL be a merge SurvivinDawg 03-04-03 52
                   RE: Question? Brownroach 03-04-03 46
                       If what Brownroach says is true jkokoj 03-04-03 47
                           RE: If what Brownroach says is true Brownroach 03-04-03 48
                               RE: If what Brownroach says is true jkokoj 03-04-03 49
                                   RE: If what Brownroach says is true Krautboy 03-04-03 50
                                       KB you too should come to the dark ... jkokoj 03-05-03 57
                                   RE: If what Brownroach says is true Brownroach 03-05-03 58
                           What if... LeftPinky 03-04-03 51
                           RE: If what Brownroach says is true SurvivinDawg 03-04-03 53
                               RE: If what Brownroach says is true KeithFan 03-04-03 54
                                   RE: If what Brownroach says is true amylynne321 03-05-03 55
                                       RE: If what Brownroach says is true Markopolo100 03-05-03 56
                                           RE: If what Brownroach says is true ShowMeTheWinner 03-05-03 59
 MERGE CONFIRMED? jkokoj 03-05-03 60
   RE: MERGE CONFIRMED? dabo 03-05-03 61
       RE: MERGE CONFIRMED? Brownroach 03-05-03 62
   RE: MERGE CONFIRMED? SurvivorBlows 03-05-03 63
       RE: MERGE CONFIRMED? Q 03-06-03 64

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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-03, 02:54 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I tend to think there may be an early merge. Usually on the CBS site under the rules for Survivor it talks about the tribes merging in some form or fashion. This time there is absolutely nothing about merging.

Possibly the Christy spoilers may be incorrect....I must say I've never seen any one have such a blunderous episode as Christy and survive another vote.

I think a tribal swap would kill the "Battle of the Sexes" theme big time. If there were going to be some type of swap this episode, there would have been some mystery to the previews.

The hard thing I see with either Joanna or Christy going next Episode is that the theme of the Episode seems to be the flirting...and Joanna and Christy were both presented negatively last episode, the main storyline of this episode is the young ones flirting, so doesn't give MB much time to redeem either of them.

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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-03, 06:13 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I think there are a lot of puzzle pieces that fit together to strongly suggest an Episode 4 swap (see thread "contents of the mystery box")

In regard to Christy, her maladjustment and CO's info are nicely bridged by Jeff's pre-show comment, "I think one thing to keep an eye on this season is the people doing a good job of adapting. And I'll leave it at that."

Christy may do a 180 in regard to "adapting" in Episode 3.

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LadyT 5567 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-03, 06:23 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
The Boobie alliance may realize that they need Christy and will vote Joanna off, because who wants to listen to that crap all the time.

I think that if we have Joanna, then Daniel voted off there won't be either. MB did play up the BOS big time so he may be doing the merge at the time he has always done it, except for last time.


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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 06:42 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-03 AT 06:44 AM (EST)

Correct me if I am wrong, but this group did NOT know about Survivor V's "living-together-but-not-merged" situation that destroyed Shii Ann.

Perhaps we get something very similar to this... but at 12 people instead of 10.

Edited to add: Let me add to this. ChillOne might not have known of the early "merge" in S-5, and would likely mistake a scenario of two tribes living together as a real merge.

Last, but not least, it could really be an early merge, and the mystery box contains third-color buffs.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 08:02 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
With regard to Christy, it is also possible that after last TC where there was a lot of emotion going on the women go back and have a heart to heart so to speak and some things are cleared up. There are assumptions that were made on all parts, Christy feeling her hearing impairment is the issue, Jenna and company saying not. Shawna did appear to have a look of compassion on her face at TC. While I do believe they merge early (for the pure and simple fact that with the sexes separated, they should not keep them separated as long as a regular merging), the explanation for Christy may be simpler and that is, some compassion evolves, Christy may tone it down somewhat since she won't feel quite as defensive and the girls perhaps decide to be a little less abrasive, Christy may just end up UTR at that point since we have the MIXER, the BATTLE OF THE LEADER and bigger fish to fry!
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snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 10:14 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
That is how I envision it going down Veruca. Women love to chat about emotions and feelings, I can see the women going back to camp and having a big, long talk about Christie feeling left out. The girls will rally around Christie and include her in the group, the sole disenter will be Joanna who refuses to let by gones be bygones. She holds a grudge and this will lead to her demise. Deena takes over as tribe leader and the shelter will get built. Christie will tone down and in Ep.3 and Ep.4, by Ep. 5 she has been redeemed and is no longer carrying the bullseye on her back.

Christie will be around for a long time...

"Don't hate me because I'm beautiful, there are so many other reasons"

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 09:37 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I agree with all this. I think the other girls will realize that Christy was talking out of frustration, and also remember that we don't see everything that is said in TC, it is edited carefully to give us certain impressions.

The impression of Christy from that TC is negative, but I can easily see her frustration as being the catalyst that gets some people off their fourth-points-of-contact (a little Airborne lingo, there) and get that shelter built, etc.

Joanna, however, has not only had a fight with Christy, she's downright weird about the Immunity Idol, and who knows what else. In my summary, I joked about her (awful) singing. If she keeps that up, and keeps throwing religion in the face of others too hard, she will paint a HUGE target on her back.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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colleenwannabe 455 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-03, 01:49 PM (EST)
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42. "What might bite Rob in the but?"
Maybe this is what Daniel referred to as biting Rob in the but. They have what they think is an early merge, Rob pals around with the ladies, and then bam, Rob's another Shii Ann.

Interesting, and it would be a lot of fun to watch as a viewer that has already seen that scenario go down once.

Colleenwannabe

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 09:42 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-03 AT 09:44 AM (EST)

>
>However, we have weight loss information
>and the ChillOne Spoiler that
>suggest she survives past the
>merge. How does this happen?
>

There is also the possability that the woman win a majority of the IC and only boot off 2 people prior to the merger. That would explain the ChillOne Spoiler and the weight loss spoiler. Once a merger takes place, the dynamics of voting people change

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TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 06:07 PM (EST)
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8. "Young Women vs Older..."
To me it seems that Christy will play a crucial role in a dividing line between the women of Jaburu. I think we can all see a strong alliance between Jenna, Heidi and Shawna, but with Christy and Jenna at what seems like surmountable odds, if Christy were to go to Jeanne and point this out, would Jeanne, Deena, and Christy form an alliance with JoAnna first, knock out at least one of the 'booby' alliance, and then get rid of JoAnna, in an attempt to secure a strong final threesome of Christy, Deena, and Jeanne.

The major problem with this is that Christy and JoAnna are at odds too. The only way to figure it out for me is to figure who the tribe has a bigger problem with, Christy or JoAnna.

That being said it would likely be that JoAnna does go next (for Christy would seem like an easy casualty when the teams finally go individual) and that would let them keep her on. And then if we had a tribe swap, we would see whatever the switch would be, either knocking off the minority of younger to older women ie: Heidi would be out if Deena and Jeanne were on her team, or Deena would go if her female teammates were Jenna and Shawna (or whatever scenario) This could get interesting. We already know for a fact that Deena is tired of hearing Jo complain about the idol. But would people be willing to align with Christy knowing there are some things in strategy she is not going to pick up.

On the mens side I see Roger going out before Daniel. Wouldn't Daniel have to stay around longer in order to contract malaria? I also see the produceres maneivering things in order to keep at least JoAnna or Daniel on as they are minorities. Do they have that power? I bet they do.

Three more days

TT29

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smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 06:37 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Young Women vs Older..."
Let us not forget that Mark specifically stated that Christy can read lips MUCH better than she lets on. Perhaps part of her strategy is to hide the fact that she knows more, and thus uses that information to find out who is lying and who isnt. I think that somehow (not sure how at this point) but somehow, she will survive until the merge, and form some kind of alliance with one or two of the women, and one or two of the men. Thus gettin her to the final 6 at least, if not further.
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PepeLePew13 26015 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 08:09 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Young Women vs Older..."

>Perhaps part of her strategy is to hide the fact
>that she knows more, and thus uses that information to
>find out who is lying and who isnt.

That's what I think, as well. We're being shown very little of Christy other than the comments of feeling isolated and the spat with Joanna, but there's GOT to be a lot more than that because she's gotten along well enough with some members to be able to get information out of them (i.e. Jeanne and Deena).


>somehow, she will survive until the merge, and form some
>kind of alliance with one or two of the women,
>and one or two of the men. Thus gettin
>her to the final 6 at least, if not further.

How's this for speculation. We've seen the ChillOne spoilers and weight-loss spoilers that suggest Christy, Butch and ?Matthew? are in the final four along with weight losses for Heidi, Deena and Jeanne. What if the swap resulted in Christy being onside with Butch and Matthew along with Deena and Jeanne? Butch is a school principal, he's likely an easy-going type that would make a point of it to get to know a person who stands out from the crowd such as Christy (I know... I've been there myself), and Butch would also be more likely to get along with Jeanne and Deena as a 35+ age group, with a mature Matthew joining them to create a 5-person voting bloc to go far in the game. I could see Butch/Christy/Jeanne/Deena/Matthew taking control of the game at some point with Heidi butting in somewhere with her P.E. skills to win some challenges if she isn't part of the group. Weight loss spoilers would then be largely satisfied here.


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 07:16 PM (EST)
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10. "Scenario for a Swap..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-03 AT 07:19 PM (EST)

From the above photos, we can see a row of contestants from the 'game show' challenge. The row goes boy-girl-boy-girl. The seven shown in order from farthest away to closest are:

Alex
Jenna
Butch
Shawna
Rob
Deena
Dave

Alex and Dave have both turned their question boxes towards the center of the row but the podiums are in a straight line. Note that there are 7 people in this row (4 men/3 women). It is not a big stretch to assume that there is another row of 7 people facing them (4 women/3 men). This photo of Joanna supports that notion:

The members of this other row would be:

Christy
Daniel
Heidi
Matthew
Jeanne
Roger
Joanna

Now... remember the swap episode from Marquesas?

Picture this little 'Dating Game' scenario. Jiffy welcomes the contestants and explains that there is going to be a little ice breaker so that everyone gets to know each other a little better. He does a little banter schtick with them to put them off their guards and then invites them to chose a podium with a color from their tribe.

There you go... without the tribe members suspecting, the tribes are randomly divided into two new groups of seven each with a guarantee of three men going to the formerly women's tribe and three women going to the formerly women's tribe.

After the question and answer challenge is completed Jiffy says to the three men on Joanna's side and to the three women on Alex's side 'Congratulations, you have just switched tribes!'

Now... which of these two new tribes would most likely have a schism between the old and the young with one person in the middle making a critical decision?

Alex
Jenna
Butch
Shawna
Rob
Deena
Dave

or

Christy
Daniel
Heidi
Matthew
Jeanne
Roger
Joanna

I submit that (Jeanne, Joanna, Roger) vs. (Daniel, Heidi, Matthew) satisfies the preview for an old vs young schism. There are motivations for Daniel and Matthew to abandon Roger after Ryan was voted out. Heidi may begin to use the 'feminine wiles' angle thus alienating Jeanne and Heidi who align with Roger. Christy has no real friends in the women's camp or the men's camp so she is left to make the 'crucial' decision. What is the crusical decision you may ask?

Simple... Christy's new tribe loses the first post swap challenge and she ends up deciding next boot. She, of course, picks Joanna.

To Summarize:

'Questions/Dating Game' challenge is just a clever ruse to swap tribe members: This leads to the following swap:

Daniel, Matthew, and Roger go to Jamburu.

Jenna, Shawna, and Deena go to Tambaqui.

The new Jamburu lose the IC.

The new Jamburu tribe fractures along age lines (Roger/Joanna/ Jeanne VS Matthew/Daniel/Heidi) leaving Christy to decide who gets the boot.

Joanna is the bootee.

This scenario satisfies the age schism portion of the website text preview and (more importantly) it explains why no pics of the IC are given.

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survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 07:28 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Scenario for a Swap..."
Sounds good to me, but then again it could just be a reward challenge about how well you know the other tribe. Like who did the girls say was the cutest and the next guy has to pick someone for points.

Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 07:40 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Scenario for a Swap..."
Works for me! Early swap (which I favor over early merge in any case), possibly also with a faux merge (either early or at episode 7) could really shake things up and destroy early alliances.

ARRRRRRR!!!!

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 11:04 PM (EST)
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14. "Where's Ryan?"
Great Idea Ice! I love the scenario, but it doesn't work unless we can find a way to explain away the, yet to be identified, "Where's Ryan?" Challenge, which we are speculating is the EP3 Immunity Challenge...

EP1 IC

EP2 IC

EP3 IC?

If there is a swap at the RC in EP3, then the "Where's Ryan?" group huddle would had to have already taken place somewhere during EP1 or EP2... but as far as I can tell, the vidcap evidence doesn't support it.

So, as much as I love your scenario, I don't think we can buy into it until we prove the "Where's Ryan?" huddle has already taken place...



Krautboy

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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 01:24 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Where's Ryan?"
Also, on the last CBS eyemail, it has clarified that the one making the tough decision of older and younger is a male...
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 02:48 AM (EST)
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19. "Well there it is then..."
Stick a fork in the scenario...

It's done...

In the immortal words of Emily Litella...

(this one's for you Itzy)

... 'never mind'...

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SaphireLady 2491 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 02:48 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Where's Ryan?"
I was going to point that little info out about the eyemail but you already did and everyone seems to be ignoring it.

Alas I do question whether accident or on purpose to throw off or a true clue.

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 02:36 AM (EST)
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18. "Where's Janet's Rope..."
The Janet holding a rope pic never appeared on the show either (due to it occuring during a portion of the EP1 challenge that was edited out).

The clothing shifts for Alex and Dave are definitely damning though. I could explain away Alex and and Dave's shirts with clothing layers, but Alex is also wearing different shorts, too (I checked the tape as it doesn't show on the caps).

For my scenario to have any chance, Alex would have to arrive at EP2 TC in grey undershirt and Hawaii shorts and then change clothes into his black crew neck t-shirt and green cargo shorts.

Not very likely, I suppose.

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Brownroach 15340 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 11:11 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Where's Ryan?"
Krautboy, did we ever see the "dejected men" visuals at IC2?

I know it's an exact match on clothing and buff placement, but they won the challenge. Was this when they arrived? (I had to turn away from the TV briefly during the arrival). Were we just reading "defeat" into this cap?

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 07:45 PM (EST)
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28. "Determined not Dejected"
Braownroach: The "dejected" picture was really a "determined" shot of the guys all wearing their "game face" as they arrived for the challenge, determined to win...


Krautboy

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anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 01:30 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Scenario for a Swap..."
I like your scenario, but I just have one problem with it....would MB really do the merge with an odd number like that--he is going to end up with the perfect Pagonging situation on both sides. The men could simply band together in their majority and vote off the women and vice versa.

Assuming each tribe wins one more IC (amd I know assuming is dangerous with Survivor players), merging when there is an even number makes more sense. It is a gamble for him, but at least there is a CHANCE of them each having a fair shake. Six and six would still be early, but would also at least give the appearance of balanced tribes. It would also build up his BOS to its natural climax, throwing in a mixer to get them more stirred up about the future merge.

I just can't see him giving up on his men vs. women **this** early...maybe a swap next week, but to hype it to the hilt and only let it play out two weeks would be pretty lame, IMO. I know people that are only watching it to see the women versus the men--he has a good hook right now. Plus, he had to know he would have some serious infighting--a lot more levels than his standard team set ups have had.

Miscellaneous Ramblings
--probably shouldn't be trying to think like MB after midnight

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-03, 02:24 AM (EST)
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17. "Men vs Women WAS a risk..."
So much of a risk that I would bet that it was built into the protocol for the scheduling of the swap, that it would occur as soon as a balance between the tribes occured.

I also point to the fact the neither the male tribe nor the female tribe are a cohesive unit. Matthew and Daniel feel like targets in the male tribe after they supported Ryan's failed attempt to vote out Roger and the fractures in the women's tribe are very numerous. Joanna and Christy both have reason to feel vulnerable.

Even if there were 3 men vs 4 women on one tribe and 4 men vs 3 women on another tribe I would honestly say that it is highly unlikely that gender-based voting blocks would remain.

As far as a swap next episode, I can't see it happening when the tribes are at uneven strength vs each other. I haven't checked, but has any other swap occured when the tribes were at uneven strength? If they don't swap now, they would have to wait until after EP4. Then a wait of at least 2 more episodes until the merge which would put the merge in EP7 but isn't that just a conventional merge at that point?

MB already caught them off guard with the gender based tribal split. If MB does the swap in EP3, he catches them off guard again. Then he would have ample time for either an early merge or a fake merge followed by an earlier merge.

I still have a theory about the two sets of tribal council vidcaps (one showing Heidi and 3 others outside the TC and the other with more tribe members inside the TC with Heidi just heading towards the door). I think that these two sets of images are from the same TC and that it reveals a merge with a large number of tribe members (approx 12). This means a swap would have to occur very early, if it is to occur at all.

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phonarr 29 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-03, 05:58 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Men vs Women WAS a risk..."
<I haven't checked, but has any other swap occured when the> <tribes were at uneven strength?>

Only one; The Marquesas
Rotu - 8 Maraamu 5

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03-02-03, 04:33 AM (EST)
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30. "No Merger? (was: Men vs Women WAS a risk...)"
The women's tribe is a cohesive unit now. That was inevitable. The guys on the other hand are demoralized and fractured because of the fratricide of having to vote against each other. Plus they voted their youngest (and strongest) 2 members off, negating the very advantage they were boasting about all this time. (And the women voted off their oldest and weakest member, making the guy's situation even worse).

Forget early mergers or swap. That's just people reacting knee-jerk to previous survivor editions. If anything, this time around, they'll probably try to set it up so that there'll be no merger at all. A battle of the sexes all the way to complete elimination of one of the tribes.

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26. "RE: Scenario for a Swap..."
Brilliant!
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02-25-03, 02:31 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Scenario for a Swap..."
I couldn't agree more with you IceCat! In the description for episode 3, there is no reference to gender splits, no battle of the sexes...nothing except vidcaps and edited footage of the survivors. In descriptions for episode 1 and 2, CBS mentioned men's tribe, women's tribe, etc. Why not for episode 3?

Also, we've seen vidcap evidence of Heidi, Roger, Joanna, Matthew and possibly Christy walking with torches together. Would the reward challenge stretch out until the night? If not, it must be them as a new tribe walking together! None of these people were shown on the same side in the vidcaps (of Alex, Jenna, Butch, Shawna, Rob, Deena, Dave)

This along with IceCat's excellent reasoning leads me to believe that a switch happens this episode or an early merge.

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02-25-03, 02:49 AM (EST)
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21. "New scenario..."
They are all LOG ROLLING...

That's it! LOG ROLLING!

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02-25-03, 08:25 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: New scenario..."
Now log rolling...that I can buy!


Krautboy

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02-25-03, 10:06 AM (EST)
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24. "General Comments"
If I may make a few general comments on this whole thresd here:

1) Several people with weight loss spoilers are presently seeming to be in danger, particularly Christy and Matthew.

2) Overwhelming spoiler evidence almost certainly suggests that Daniel and Joanna are the next two to go.

3) Alex and Shawna sitting in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g. If these two are dating, did they meet in Loser Lodge, thus becoming somewhere in 5-7 in boot order?

4) I also think the Alex/Roger fight was shown for a reason, and it will lead to Alex's demise.

5) Also, the S-4 swap occurred with odd numbers of people, and an 8-5 split. So a split at ANY time is possible

IceCat's Ep. 3 swap is very interesting. It puts Alex and Shawna together. As to booting? Well, Joanna's mouth is very likely going to get her in trouble. Daniel made some comments at previous (Ep.1) IC about the girls being skinny. I can see them remembering him... and not fondly. This also would save Matthew and Christy.

But this would mean that the Joanna/Daniel tribe would lose two straight ICs and be very shorthanded afterward. Not impossible to overcome, but difficult.

It also doesn't jibe with picture evidence.

So let's delay the swap. How about Ep. 5... three men and three women swap tribes. Or an early merge at this time. Or a "two tribes, one camp" scenario.

The only evidence I can offer for this (maybe y'all have something?) is this: It is my belief that MB would not want to go into a 10 person merge with it still guys vs. girls. He will want to mix these people up so that pagonging doesn't occur easily (not that MB has succeeded in this at any time in the past, but what's to stop him from trying yet again?). So something needs to happen.

Gotta go, but I'll post more later. Your thoughts on this to date?



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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03-03-03, 03:39 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
A tribal swap seems like an inappropriate monkey-wrench for MB to throw into the workings of S6.

Yes there's been a swap scenario in the last three installments, but S6 is a completely new animal. The Battle of the Sexes premise plays up more than ever how different the two tribes are, which I think is MB's desired effect.

So why would MB want a swap that will result in two mixed-gender tribes? To break up alliances and avoid a pagonging later on? A pagonging seems very unlikely, since some of the guys at least (the hornier ones) will want to make headway with the ladies.

I don't think viewers caught up in the BOS dynamic would have any interest in seeing a reversion to traditional tribes for a few episodes. And a swap probably would not happen any later than Ep 5. Is the story we are being told really headed in that direction next week? Everything seems to point to the men and women being kept separate until the time when they ALL come together.

Now, having said all that, there is one way I could imagine a swap: if MB makes it voluntary like in S5. There's a chance people might actually go for it this time: maybe Rob, maybe Christy. Still, it seems like a long shot to me.

MB tried a lot of tricks in S5 -- the pseudo male/female tribes, the elders picking the tribemembers, the voluntary switch, the fake merge -- to no avail. In the end it was boring and predictable. With the BOS in S6, MB doesn't need to try so hard, imo, and I think he'll keep the twists to a minimum.

I do think the men and women coming together to cohabitate while existing as separate tribes is a very strong likelihood though. That could occur as early as Ep 5. It may not even be done as a fake-out this time; they may be told the real deal right off the bat.

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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-03, 04:19 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I like the way you reasoned that one Brownroach. The general viewing public seems quite taken with the BOS. Why screw with it until they have to merge the tribes.

That said, I do think some co-habitation could occur. It might even help the guys out to see the women for more than a few hours every couple of days, ie, they can regain some focus, or it might be even worse for some. Leaving those who can control themselves a chance to alliance up with the non-boob alliance girls.


It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.

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03-03-03, 04:55 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
>>That said, I do think some co-habitation could occur. It might even help the guys out to see the women for more than a few hours every couple of days, ie, they can regain some focus, or it might be even worse for some. Leaving those who can control themselves a chance to alliance up with the non-boob alliance girls.<<

Agreed, Q -- I think both sides would seize this opportunity to flirt, as it were, with future alliance possibilities. The guys just have to keep their wits about them.

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03-03-03, 04:36 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I seriously believe that the merge willhappen in episode 5. This will cause all the sub-alliances to re-evaluate and the liklihood of 3 or more major alliances is certain, which will make for great tv, and that is what EP MB is looking for. Well, besides the very large paycheck he gets from See BS.

Peanut Butter Jeff

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03-03-03, 04:57 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
>>>So why would MB want a swap that will result in two mixed-gender tribes?

If you take a handful of women and a handful of men out of a mixed-gender setting (i.e. society) and put them into another smaller mixed-gender setting (i.e. Survivor Africa), the interpersonal relationships formed by each person in the smaller setting are pretty similar to the types of relationships they form in the real-world. Men and women get along fine, they find friends and foes among both sexes, and there's the odd woman who can't stand men and the odd chauvinist guy who thinks women are weak. The group dynamic among the men and women in past Survivors probably mirrors the way the same people would operate in society among mixed-gender groups.

What MB has done is he has taken the handfuls of men and women from their mixed-gender setting and split them into single-gender mini-societies. On top of this, he pits the two societies against one another. The result is an armchair psychologists/sociologists dream.

The gender split has completely changed the psyche of the survivors. MB has to allow time for all the resulting "noise" from the gender split to really ferment before he does any swapping or merging. In the real world, it would take a long time to get into this "us against them" mindset, but in the Survivor world, which is so close, so intimate, so deprived...I can see how it would only take a couple of weeks of gender splitting for the stereotypes and the prejudices and the attitudes to permeate deep into the game. Again, because of the close environment, these attitudes are probably more extreme than they would be in the real world. If MB merges or swaps too soon, he risks losing the whole gender-war theme too early.

So, back to your question:
>>>So why would MB want a swap that will result in two mixed-gender tribes.

I don't think he does. I don't think he wants to mix these guys up until they are fully primed with "men vs. womenness," thusly ensuring the longevity of the gender war theme.

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03-03-03, 05:43 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
Agree. My question was rhetorical. It makes no sense to rearrange them into two separate mixed-gender groups, just to have a "twist". It's not needed.
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03-04-03, 12:26 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I agree that there will not be a swap this series. But EP MB does thing in pairs. S5 we had a merge that took place two players later then usual and this time I suggest that the merge will take place 2 players early, or at 12 players.

This will allow all the tribal probs to emerge and the possibility of three or more major alliances existing at the same time since all the men and all the women will not act as one strong alliance willing to pit the other out. Additionally, there will be the sexual tension the we have already seen so it should be a very dynamic series.

This has the possibilty of being the best Survivor ever because of the tribes starting all same sex. The hard part has been the challenges which clearly have been contrived so that strength will not be an advantage. So far it has not been a big deal other then there was a challenge that Christy could not take part in, which I found to be pathetic since they allowed a deaf person into the game, but that is for another string.

Personally, I would be surprised if the merge did not take place in episode 5.


Peanut Butter Jeff

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03-04-03, 01:12 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Swap/Twist or Early Merge?"
I agree with you on the challenge that Christy was sat out. However, I did notice that if Jabaru had not been able to sit one out, Christy could either be the "navigator" or she could have been blindfolded and partnered with someone else. Of course, then she would be dead weight, but she wouldn't be totally out. I guess MB didn't want that much bad press.
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ElroyJetson 586 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-03, 12:51 PM (EST)
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38. "How about NO MERGE?"
I don't know how MB would pull it off, but, to continue the Women vs. Men theme, NEVER LET THEM MERGE. Cohabitate, yes. But no merge.

There have already been a couple quotes from the survivors such as "If there's a merge", and "please let's merge". Could that be foreshadowing?

MB could even throw in a twist where both tribes attend tribal council and the winning tribe gets 1 cummulative vote against the losing tribe. That could encourage dissension among the winning tribe and also cause the losing tribe members to curry votes from the winning tribe.

The gist is, although we are against each other, we still need each other.

This probably breaks down on many levels. Just thought I would throw it out. Let's discuss.

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03-04-03, 01:41 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: How about NO MERGE?"
>>>There have already been a couple quotes from the survivors such as "If there's a merge", and "please let's merge". Could that be foreshadowing?

I've noticed this, too, Elroy. Merging has never been an uncertainty among Survivor DAWs until this season, and if their ancestor DAWs have speculated about a mergeless game, it's been edited out. Suddenly with the sixth installment we are shown all this speculation about whether or not there will be a merge.

I think MB is going to toy with the merge somehow. I'm partial to the separate tribes living together storyline.

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03-04-03, 01:47 PM (EST)
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41. "Question?"
Does this S6 cast know about the S5 merge/non-merge scenerio? Did they see Shii Ann get whacked? If not, we could have the same situation. Co-habiting but later merge.


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03-04-03, 02:23 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Question?"
I seem to recall at the time of the anti-merge some discussion on this board about whether the Amazon contestants would know about it. I'm pretty sure that when it happened, Amazon was well underway.
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03-04-03, 02:29 PM (EST)
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44. "Why there WILL be a merge"
I think there WILL be a merge, or at least a swap, because I see no other way for Christy and Matthew to survive... and spoiler information suggests that they DO survive.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-03, 02:41 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Why there WILL be a merge"
But Dawg, as you are so fond of pointing out, and I agree with, you Cannot trust SeeBS, or MB. Why would you then trust that what you have been shown about Christy and Matt is the whole story? There has to be other ways for them to survive than a swap/merge. Perhaps in some of the footage SeeBS and MB have not show us yet, because the strategies will succeed.

Thoughts?


It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.

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03-04-03, 08:36 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Why there WILL be a merge"
Uh, Q, I think I'm being very consistent, and I'm not sure why you think I'm taking CBS at its word.

CBS is showing us SOME things in order to lead us in a certain direction. They have particularly been showing us Christy as being in an argument with Joanna, frustrated at Tribal Council, and left behind by the others. In other words, ripe for dismissal.

However, contrary to what CBS has shown us, there is spoiler evidence that Christy goes a long way into the game, perhaps the final four, and one suggestion that she wins the whole enchilada.

Matthew has been shown by CBS to be in the wrong men's alliance, and would appear to be the next target. However, there is some spoiler evidence that he makes it a pretty good ways, also.

So I don't think we've been shown the whole story.

And it is my opinion (FWIW) that these two are saved from early exits by a swap or merge. Yes, it is possible something else saves them, but I think that a swap/merge is the most likely and logical explanation.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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03-04-03, 03:37 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Question?"
LAST EDITED ON 03-05-03 AT 06:13 PM (EST)

Shii Ann's boot aired on October 31 -- remember Snewser's Happy Halloween message with the little red Shii-devil smoking a cigarette?

Day One of S6 was November 3rd. With the several days of pre-show training, the S6 contestants were probably already in the Amazon or en route on October 31.


***Edited because TDT has Day One as November 3rd, not 4th as I originally wrote. Also says cast arrived in the Amazon on October 29th.

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03-04-03, 04:50 PM (EST)
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47. "If what Brownroach says is true"
then I would say we will see co-habitating with late merge.

Dawg: I do think Christy and Matthew could survive in that scenerio. Look what happened to Shii Ann and Penny. Penny got life while Shii was taken out.

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03-04-03, 06:38 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
Dawg: I do think Christy and Matthew could survive in that scenerio.

Yes, cohabitating without merging encourages booting those you think are trying to make inroads with the other tribe. This might not bode well for a horny chatterbox like Rob, or for whatever's left of the boobie alliance, if they seem too popular with the men. But people like Matt and Christy could initially recede into the background as targets.

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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-03, 07:00 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
Thanks Brownroach for your thoughts. smooches babe! You need to head over to OT sometime.

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03-04-03, 07:04 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
Don't do it Brownroach! We need you here...don't give in to the Dark Side...


Krautboy

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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-03, 09:45 AM (EST)
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57. "KB you too should come to the dark side..."
You would fit in just fine in OT...follow the dancing minnie...follow the dancing minnie

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03-05-03, 11:34 AM (EST)
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58. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
Smooches backatcha, jkokoj, thanks for the invite -- and Krautboy, thanks for the warning!

I'll take a look at OT one of these days, but at present I have limited reading and posting time -- can't even participate at Bashers the way I'd like.

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51. "What if..."
What if the tribe co-habitate and the tribe winning the immunity gets to vote someone from the other tribe out? That could save both Matthew & Christy
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53. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
Dawg: I do think Christy and Matthew could survive in that scenerio. Look what happened to Shii Ann and Penny. Penny got life while Shii was taken out.

I don't disagree with you, jokokj. There COULD be other scenarios where Christy and Matthew survive without there being a swap/merge. Perhaps me saying "no other way" above was too strong, but I do think that the most logical and plausible explanation for them going further in the game is for a swap or merge to happen.

And I personally believe it's going to happen in Episode 5.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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03-04-03, 10:31 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
I too think there will be a "non-merge" merge..remember everyone keeps saying that Robs scheming "may" come back to bite him? I think Rob is going to be the ShiiAnn when he tries to hook up with the girls.
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55. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
LAST EDITED ON 03-05-03 AT 02:23 AM (EST)

Removed to post in the CORRECT section!!!

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Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-03, 05:48 AM (EST)
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56. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
I believe Mark Burnett has done several things to ensure a group of women in the final six.

1) A swap in EP5
2) Easy mental individual immunity challenges
3) (Maybe) an early merge

His goal is to break gender alliances, because if he has same-gender alliances, and the men's alliance becomes dominant, ratings go down.

Here is an old quote from EPM from THIS ARTICLE

With voting later in the game so often split along tribal lines, "I could end up with the final six or seven all men or all women," he said. "All women wouldn't be so bad, but all men would be, I think, awful for the ratings."

First, we will operate on the assumption that everything for the game is planned before the game (as stated by Jeffy several times)

MB will make sure that the gender alliances are mixed. The best way to do this is to put the women and men together before the merge and allow them to build mixed-gender alliances.

That means a swap. As we saw in Africa and Marquesas, old tribal lines disappeared.

S3 Africa:
Africa: Silas, Frank and Theresa came to Boran. Silas was voted out by everyone, including his own tribemates. Samburu split to boot Lindsey, but then the voting became muddled. Despite Boran having a HUGE numbers advantage, the merged tribe voted out two Boran members -- Clarence and Kelly. And Samburu was too confused to team up and take Boran out.

S4: The best swap results. The outcasts from both tribes end up together to make a very diverse Final Five of Sean, Neleh, Pascal, Kathy and Vecepia.

Breaking up of tribal alliances DIDN'T happen for the most part in S1, S2 and S5.

S1: Tagi "Pagongs" Pagong.

S2: Both tribes held out for two episodes. Ogakor took advantage and booted Jeff and Alicia. It took a total biatch like Jerri and a total sweetheart like Elizabeth to allow the voting to be slightly altered. Still, Tina/Keith/Colby/Amber/Jerri never had an alliance with a Kucha member.

S5: Both tribes remained true to themselves and voted on tribal lines the entire time (OK, Penny didn't in one useless vote against Jake).

Even if the women/men have split alliances among them (Ex: the Boobie alliance vs. Joanna and Jeanne), it is proven in S1, S2 and S5 that the tribe will stick together.

Burnett will avoid this at all costs, because he doesn't want a final six of men. He doesn't know if there will be an outcast (like Shii Ann or Christy) to mess things up, because he makes the decision on a swap before the game.

Thus, he MUST use a swap to mix alliances. He MUST make the challenges equal for women to have a chance. An Early merge would help, but a swap is better.

LESS WOMEN = LESS RATINGS....THUS WE HAVE A SWAP AND HANDICAPS FOR THE WOMEN.

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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-03, 02:44 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: If what Brownroach says is true"
Thus, he MUST use a swap to mix alliances.
Not so sure that a swap is a must to avoid Pagonging. There are some scenarios that could prevent this. I posted this on another thread but I may not have been too clear when I posted my theory (hey, it's 3am in my time zone here).

Let's assume that both tribes are living together in one area but there's a delayed merge ala S5. The tribes are still competing against each other as two different teams but the difference is that BOTH tribes go to TC together to vote off a member from the losing team. Everybody, from both the winning and losing team, votes to decide who goes. In this example, let's say that both tribes were even at 6-6 at this "semi-merge". The guys lose an IC this time so somebody from the guys tribe has to be voted out. Since the girls would help to decide who goes, all the guys would have no choice but to somewhat betray their tribemates by directing the girls to vote off someone else other than him. Despite having equal members of the tribes, we are unlikely to see a vote along tribal lines that result in a draw since all the votes can only be concentrated on just the losing team. In this instance, the guys' alliance of Alex, Butch, Dave, and Roger may decide to vote off someone like Matt or Rob. But with the girls voting, these vulnerable guys would still have a chance at saving themselves if they jump ship to vote with the 6 women voting bloc and thus gaining the upper hand.

The Pagonging will be kept at a minimum since the voting bloc may be different the next round if the women lose the next tribal IC. So in this example, we may have a 6 girls-5 guys situation but the guys will not necessarily be Pagonged by the girls since the girls could very well lose the next team IC, which would even up the numbers once again. This "all members from both tribes vote off someone from the losing team" game structure will be a good way to minimize the Pagonging since it all depends on which team actually wins the IC and how the group dynamic was at that point in time. Depending on who jumps ships, we may even see 'surprise' boots like Dave, Roger, or Shawna who are currently so comfortable in their power alliances.

Just one possible way to prevent Pagonging that I can think of. I'm sure EPMB has more tricks up his sleeve.


Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)

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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-03, 03:58 PM (EST)
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60. "MERGE CONFIRMED?"
Grabbed the following from SS. Does not really confirm the merge, however, it leads credence as to when it will occur and how we can spoil around it.

--------------------------------------------------------------
coldincanada
Registered User
Posts: 1
(3/5/03 2:11:55 pm)
Reply Spoiling Information
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi All:

Just thought I'd share some information that I just came across, for those who are interested. I'm not sure if this info has been posted already, but if it has, I apologize.

Anyways, I was checking out a website that posts episode summaries for most television shows that are on the current US Television schedule. I came across the Survivor episodes, from the first season to the current season, and reading this season's episode summaries so far, it appears that the merger of the two tribes will happen on March 26th, which is a Wednesday night (due to the NCAA tournament). I guess that means that the merge will happen when there are 10 people left in the game. Also, it says that one of the men will be injured in an episode next week (March 13th), but it doesn't say how they are injured. No other info has been posted on future episodes.

Take this info for what it is, but the website is pretty reliable in my view, I've been visiting it for a while, and I have found that it has been accurate 100% of the time, but that is for everyone to decide.

For anyone who wants the website, it can be found at:

http:/www.tvtome.com/Survivor/s....html#ep79

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

03-05-03, 04:43 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: MERGE CONFIRMED?"
Link doesn't work. Can you go back where you found the link, click on the link to get to that page, then copy and paste the actual addy into a post? The link as presented is shortened (some boards are set up to do that, dunno why) so the copy and paste version presented here is useless.
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Brownroach 15340 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-03, 04:57 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: MERGE CONFIRMED?"
Here is the text from that page. It seems possible they just plugged the merge into Ep 7 because that's when it usually happens -- they have nothing up for Ep 6.
--------------------------

Survivor - Episode Guide
Season: 1 2 3 4 5 6 All

79. Boys vs. Girls


The two tribes have been divided into an all male tribe called Tambaqui and an all female tribe named Jaburu.


b: 13-Feb-2003 pc: 601

NOTE: This episode was 1 hour and 30 minutes long.
* Ryan was voted off in this episode.
* Was watched by 23.6 million viewers.
* This seasaon was named "Survivor: The Amazon" and the finale is scheduled to air in May.
* This season features the first deaf survivor, Christy. This seasaon is also the fist to NOT have an African-American male.
* Filmed on November 7, 2002.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
80. Storms


A tropical downpour soaks the women's tribe and one of women is secretly hiding granola bars.


b: 20-Feb-2003 pc: 602

NOTE: Janet was voted out in this episode.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
81. Girl Power


For the the Reward Challenge, the girls win soap and shampoo. Heidi, Shawna and Jenna bathe topless while he men begin to speculate about which women they may have a chance with. The girls promise they'll go topless in front of the men if they need to secure their votes in the future.


b: 27-Feb-2003 pc: 603

NOTE: Daniel was voted off.
* Daniel was the first Asian male to be on Survivor.
* This episode was the first to feature subtitles as Matthew and Daniel had been speaking Chinese to each other.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
82. Trapped


The men take an excursion to find a feast and purposely leave Matthew behind, leaving him to plan his mode of survival in the game. Meanwhile, after Shawna becomes ill, the alliance in the women's tribe may crumble.


b: 06-Mar-2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------
83. Pick-up Sticks


Just as the men are getting comfortable with their severe environment, one of them is injured.


b: 13-Mar-2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------
84. More Than Meats the Eye


b: 19-Mar-2003

NOTE: Airs on a Wednesday due to basketball games on Thursday night.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
85. ---


The male and female tribes merge into one tribe.


b: 26-Mar-2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------
86. ---


b: 03-Apr-2003

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-03, 11:54 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: MERGE CONFIRMED?"
I wouldn't trust anything that TV Tome says, heck, last week they were still posting nonsense runors that TAR4 might start on March 12th (like CBS is going to premiere the series out of nowhere without several weeks of promos prior to the airing.)
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"

03-06-03, 09:07 AM (EST)
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64. "RE: MERGE CONFIRMED?"
Good point.


It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.

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