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"SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 00:25 AM (EST)
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"SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-03 AT 00:37 AM (EST)

When the women's tribe decides they need a leader, Deena is elected, but some hope she will destroy herself.

The Reward Challenge becomes an opportunity for the male and female tribes to interact, leading the men to speculate about which women they may have a chance with.

Heidi, Shawna and Jenna bathe topless and promise they'll do the same in front of the men, if necessary, to secure their votes in the future.

A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle.

Most of these explain themselves....I'm sure several people are against Deena's attitude, she is a bit bossy. The RC is not a switch, and it appears we aren't going to have a switch in episode three.....the topless beauties isn't really anything we haven't heard...and the young and old battle is probably in Tambaqui, because we really don't have too many age lines in Jaburu.....I think this is an indicator that Tambaqui will visit tribal council, but nothing is for sure.

Edited to add that, after thinking about it, the women could easily break down age lines.....the "Mallrats 2003" (Heidi/Jenna/Shawna) bond seems strong, and we are pretty sure that Shawna goes rather soon....so it could be this way as well....Roger would be the main target if the men went.



Survior 5 Anti-Bootee Champion
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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 DeadInTheWater 02-21-03 1
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 Round Robin 02-21-03 2
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 evanakm 02-21-03 3
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 DeadInTheWater 02-21-03 4
       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 Brownroach 02-21-03 7
           Alliance Wacko Jacko 02-24-03 21
       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 DRONES 02-24-03 19
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 tribephyl 02-21-03 5
   Joanna is the target? Krautboy 02-21-03 6
       RE: Joanna is the target? Brownroach 02-21-03 9
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 Brownroach 02-21-03 8
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 ShowMeTheWinner 02-21-03 10
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3 Bebo 02-21-03 11
 Alex: Caught in the Middle Krautboy 02-23-03 12
   RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle tribephyl 02-23-03 13
   RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle ShowMeTheWinner 02-23-03 14
       RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle Krautboy 02-24-03 15
           RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle cowboyroo 02-24-03 16
           RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle ShowMeTheWinner 02-24-03 20
   RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle cowboyroo 02-24-03 17
 Dawg's $0.02 worth SurvivinDawg 02-24-03 18
   RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth VerucaSalt 02-24-03 22
       Semantics? Krautboy 02-26-03 27
   RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth Brownroach 02-24-03 23
       RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth SurvivinDawg 02-24-03 24
           RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth VerucaSalt 02-24-03 25
           RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth Brownroach 02-24-03 26

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DeadInTheWater 51 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 00:40 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
I think the "critical" decision is probably referring to Alex, foreshadowed by Episode 2 and his little minor argument with Roger, and Rob musing that he could get Alex to vote for Roger. I don't think the men will go to TC though, because I think a phrase like "critical decision" is supposed to lead you to think that the men will go to TC, but the opposite will happen.
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02-21-03, 00:52 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
As disorganized and generally messed up as the women are, I'd be willing to wager that Tambaqui has NO worries about going to the next TC, unless they get overconfident and blow it. The only decision for us to make this week, IMO, is which woman will get her torch snuffed, because that tribe is so divided and so totally screwed up that unless the challenge is ridiculously simple, they haven't got a prayer of winning.
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02-21-03, 01:02 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-03 AT 01:04 AM (EST)

A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle.

This sounds like the women to me. There are intermediates in the men's tribe. The tribe could definitely break in half, but it doesn't seem like it would be an age thing. First of all, there are three age groups: Young (Dave, Rob, Dan) Old (Roger, Butch) and Intermediate (Alex, Matt) and second of all, I can't see things breaking down this way, especially since the Old pair was the only group which voted together the first time.

The women's tribe dynamic is more of a two-party state. Deena and JoAnna are not old, but I think that for all intents and purposes we can put them with Jeanne and call that the old group. What I think happens is that the women lose the IC, and both sides want to get Christy on side. Even though they don't like her too much, if they are smart (I emphasize the word "if") they will realize that voting her out will put the tribe in a 3-3 split, and thus at risk of something like the purple rock.

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DeadInTheWater 51 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 01:16 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
I think that's a possible scenario, but I would be surprised if it turned out that way, to be honest. I certainly don't see the young women approaching Christy for help, but it's possible. The women's vote tonight was very fractured. Deena, Joanne, Shawna, Heidi, and Jenna all voted for Janet, with Joanna and Christy doing their own thing. I get the feeling that there is a dynamic to the female tribe, but it's a matter of whether someone is in or out of it...And I think Christy and Joanna are out. Deena is in, but I can see the others turning on her pretty quick. Then there is the first misdirection about Deena though...

Of course, this will pretty much all add up to nothing, just like this week, with the misdirection about Roger and people plotting against him. Which basically added up to an offhand comment by Rob saying that he was trying to think of someone who would vote for Roger...which led to the Roger and Alex conversation. And that was that.

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02-21-03, 11:22 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-03 AT 01:42 PM (EST)

Dead, I agree with you that the rift is probably among the men, a continuation of the Roger vs. Alex argument and Rob's strategy to work on Alex.

And yes, Deena is the misdirection this week -- even if the women go to TC, which I think they will -- same as Roger was for Ep 2.

**edited because I originally said that Alex would be the one "caught in the middle", but now I am thinking otherwise.

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02-24-03, 03:08 PM (EST)
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21. "Alliance"
To me it is rather obvisious that Jenna, Heidi and Shawna have an bond (alliance). Deena may be the one caught in the middle. I bet she is. She voted for janet last week, probably bought what the others said - "Janet, is weak and would really prefer to go home than stay out her". Now Deena could of voted with the other three out of coincidence but to me Jenna, heidi and Shawna are an alliance. Also doesn't evidence point to Joanna and Jeanne going fairly soon?

As for the guys - a young old seems farfetched. BEcause Daniel and Matthew have proven to be against Roger. And if Rob was against him as hinted why did not vote for him the first week. Dave is probably against Roger but does Matthew qualify as 'young'?

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 07:31 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
I wasn't surprised that Janet was voted out but I was surprised that the "feather alliance" voted her out and really with out much thought. Those young women seem to be a ruthless bunch but they are also a smart and will do what it takes to get what they want. I could easily see them taking in Christy, or maybe using her in someway to orchestrate a vote against Joanna.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 02:19 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
When the women's tribe decides they need a leader, Deena is elected, but some hope she will destroy herself.
With the mixture of the votes Deena got to become the leader and the hopes that she can't fulfill her duty means...Deena is safe. Yet she will be the first of 3 that we think might get the boot come TC time.

The Reward Challenge becomes an opportunity for the male and female tribes to interact, leading the men to speculate about which women they may have a chance with.
Yadda...yadda...yadda... Makes me think of the JP quote citing that the women are questioned about the men at the next TC.

Heidi, Shawna and Jenna bathe topless and promise they'll do the same in front of the men, if necessary, to secure their votes in the future.

Heidi, Shawna and Jenna are the young side in...
A battle between young and old that emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle.
The Old side will be Jeanne, Joanna, and Deena.
Christy will be in the middle. Why not just pick her to be booted? I dunno...but there seems to be a critical decision to be made.Therefore...safe. Yet, Christy will be the second of 3 choices come TC time.
The opposing faction who decides that they need a numbers advantage going into Ep 4. will approach Christy.

Now...who is the third potential TC boot? My guess, it is the one who ends up getting the boot. Shawna, Jenna, or Joanna.

tribephyl

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02-21-03, 02:42 AM (EST)
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6. "Joanna is the target?"
"A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle."

I think you're right Tribephyl, trying to get this to work for the men is a stretch because of some inherent conflicts on both sides. Dave and Daniel, two of the "young" don't really get along, and Alex and Roger, who appeared alligned early on, have already butted heads. So, it doesn't seen that the sides are clearly defined enough to have "one Survivor caught in the middle"

Christy, on the other hand, definately feels like she's on the outside of both young and old sides on the Jaburu, so if she's the one to make a "critical decision", I think she would have to decide between Jenna, whom she voted against this week, and Joanna, who got in her face too much. Since we have good evidence that Jenna sticks around, Joanna becomes the primary target this week...


Krautboy

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 01:34 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Joanna is the target?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-03 AT 03:25 PM (EST)

Tribephyl and Krautboy, you present a very sensible scenario for the women's tribe here. I'm torn...

We haven't seen a severe generation gap in the women's tribe yet. There is already an age-related division in the men's tribe, though. The factions may not fall strictly along age lines, but the spearheaders and the attitudes are "old" vs. "young".

Ryan said in his CBS chat that Butch and Roger wanted "the young guy" out. He also said: "But all in all, if we'd won that Challenge and the next one, etc. until we actually lost one, I don't think any alliances would have been any different."

We have Roger and Butch (older) on one side. Rob now wants Roger out, and Daniel voted for Roger last week, so they (younger) are on the opposite side. If alliances remain the same, as Ryan suggests, Alex may not let Roger's bigotry affect his voting allegiance, and Matt's anti-Roger stance may hold.

Then Dave may be the one with the critical decision -- he may consider going with the "younger" group if Roger bugs him, but he may still be harboring ill feelings toward Daniel, the "older" group's probable target. Edited to insert: Or, if Dave is firmly anti-Daniel, Alex may be the one who is indecisive.

It could work for either tribe, imo. But if you relate it to the tribe that goes to TC, the "critical decision" would culminate in "which one do I vote for?" It seems to me that the website previews have never highlighted a single person's dilemma about whom to boot.

So I'm more inclined to read it as misdirection and the rift occurs within the tribe that doesn't go to TC. And I think the women do go to TC next.

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02-21-03, 11:36 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
Heidi, Shawna and Jenna bathe topless and promise they'll do the same in front of the men, if necessary, to secure their votes in the future.

This sounds like a precursor to the ChillOne's girl-makes-deal-and-goes-topless spoiler.

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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 01:38 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-03 AT 01:53 PM (EST)

When the women's tribe decides they need a leader, Deena is elected, but some hope she will destroy herself.
Sounds like the cattier girls aren't too happy with the whole elected leader thing. My best guesses are Jeanne and Jenna being the girls who hope that Deena will destroy herself.

A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle.
Not 100% sure about which tribe that is referred here but I'm strongly leaning towards the guys' tribe since the older Butch and Roger seem to share a close bond whereas I don't see the older women (Deena, Jeanne, and JoAnna) sharing that kind of bond-- a bond strong enough to make them choose to ally with one another just solely on the basis of their age instead of who they get along with the best. The younger women may be bonding well together but I haven't seen any evidences that the older women have alienated themselves from the younger women, which led to a split along the age line. Cases in point: how Jeanne were described to be angling towards the mother role and braiding the younger women's hair; how the women were shown discussing about recipes (CBS website); the Janet boot. The age division should've been obvious by day 6 (ie. Samburu), and there's no way that Janet wouldn't be pulled in if there was an age division at Jaburu.

The Survivor who's caught in the middle doesn't necessarily mean that the person's age is in between the young & old group. It could simply be someone like Silas who's "caught in the middle" between the young and the old. I wouldn't rule out Alex, Rob, Dave, or Matthew. Butch and Roger (and perhaps 1 more person) may ask him to vote against Daniel, while the other group may want to take out Roger. I'm kinda thinking that it might be Rob, Daniel, and Matthew in one group with Butch, Roger, and Dave in the other group-- hence Rob's comment in episode 2 about him trying to find who he could get to vote out Roger.


Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-03, 01:59 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep.3"
When the women's tribe decides they need a leader, Deena is elected, but some hope she will destroy herself.

I can easily think of three people who could hope that - the three who got votes against them at the last TC. It would be great for them to have someone else paint a target on her back. I believe that this is misdirection to give us a potential boot suspect, but that Deena will be saved as Joanna's theatrics and her lack of interest in the immunity idol will doom her.

The Reward Challenge becomes an opportunity for the male and female tribes to interact, leading the men to speculate about which women they may have a chance with.

Just a reminder that the guys can sit around and fantasize all day since they have a nice shelter built and don't have to struggle with the elements.

Heidi, Shawna and Jenna bathe topless and promise they'll do the same in front of the men, if necessary, to secure their votes in the future.

Ratings, ratings, ratings. Keep watching, guys, to see blurred breasts. Oh, and there's an alliance here too.

A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle.

We've already seen the beginnings of this. After the first week, it appeared that bigoted Roger was safe due to his alliance of 4, and that Daniel would be history the next time the boys headed to TC. This week, we were shown cracks in that alliance. Rob is not firmly in the camp, and is in fact looking for a way to get rid of Roger. After Dave's speech and vote for Daniel, he's not a good candidate. But the whole point of showing us the Roger/Alex discussion was to show that the alliance is not as firm as Roger may think, and that he is vulnerable.

The key word, though, is leading. We're approaching a critical decision, but are we there yet? Is Alex forced to cast a deciding vote? Or is he simply asked to make a pact with someone? Or, does it even get to that point at all? IMO, it's not time yet. Alex may be asked to make a verbal commitment to someone, but I think that the girls lose more power and head back to TC to boot Joanna.


Royalty, shmoyalty...EVIL rules!

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-03, 12:31 PM (EST)
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12. "Alex: Caught in the Middle"
"A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle."

OK, although Tribephyl made a convincing arguement early on, recent information, and the many excellent points made by many in this thread, have me convinced that this is referring to the men.

The recent chat with Janet, and the TV Guide Teaser that describes the election of Deena, indicates a soild alliance of Deena and the "Young Chicks" it's a definate 4-3 and that's before considering how likely it would be for Christy and Joanna to unite. No one is "caught in the middle" in the Jaburu tribe, because there is no middle.

After reviewing the tape, it also seems clear that MB is setting up the young vs. old battle for EP4, when the men go back to TC and Daniel goes when the "young" lose.

Alex is younger, but has been voting with Roger and Butch, so he's the one caught in the middle when Rob tries to pull him one way and Butch/Roger pull him the other.

(Young) Daniel, Rob, Matthew
(Old)Roger, Butch, Dave

Alex: "Caught in the middle:


Krautboy

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-03, 04:55 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle"
OK, although Tribephyl made a convincing arguement early on, recent information, and the many excellent points made by many in this thread, have me convinced that this is referring to the men.

Even though I started out thinking it was the women, I also agree that the old vs. young battle will happen on the men's team as well.
Thanks for the props KB. Even if I have changed my tune.


tribephyl

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02-23-03, 10:33 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle"
LAST EDITED ON 02-23-03 AT 10:40 PM (EST)

Here're the ages of the men:
Alex 32
Butch 50
Daniel 27
Dave 24
Matthew 33
Rob 24
Roger 56


I wouldn't count Dave out as the person who's caught in the middle. He is in his mid-twenties and fits in the 'neither young nor old' category better than Alex, who's over 30. I think the older age group would consist of the more solid members of Roger and Butch, with Alex and Dave as secondary members. Roger, and Alex have been shown together quite a number of times (they are even shown smiling together in the previews where Alex said "cha chika bam bam") and according to Dave, they've also been joking about their initial disagreement over homosexuality. Ryan had also said that perhaps he should have leaned a little harder on Dave so he might not be all that solid with Roger, Butch, and Alex afterall. My two prime candidates are Alex and Dave-- can't rule Alex out coz Rob already said that he was looking for a swing vote and Alex would make a good candidate. I think the answer to solving about who might feel tempted to join the younger age group is the person who's most likely to join the "I Hate Roger" club.



Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 00:09 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle"
SMTW: Age-wise Dave could be considered "in the middle", but philosophically he's in the "older" group. He doesn't like Daniel, and he questions his integrity. I think Dave is soildly in the "older" camp with Roger and Butch.


Krautboy

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02-24-03, 02:04 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle"
I agree that Alex is the one caught in the middle...That was probably the purpose of the whole gay argument. Didn't seem to have much of a purpose...

I think the old however is: Matthew, Roger, Butch and the younger is Dave, Rob, Daniel...Daniel's toned it down and Dave didn't look too happy with Roger during the Alex/Daniel argument.

Also, we see Roger/Alex talking to the 8-ball with their buffs arround their neck either before or after the IC (they have their buffs around neck and same outfits on as in group hug).

I am also gonna go out on a limb and say the men go to TC or else CBS may not have been so vague with that quote about "one tribe", if it wasn't the tribe going to TC...

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02-24-03, 02:49 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle"
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-03 AT 03:07 PM (EST)

I'm not ruling Alex out but I don't think that Alex is a sure shot to be the swing vote in question. IMHO, Dave can't be ruled out. Ryan's interview with WBTV has him specifically mentioning, "Alliances were made, obviously it was Butch, Roger, and Alex. And myself, Dan, and Matt. Rob was going to be the swing vote". He didn't say anything about Dave, so I thought that made him a possible swing vote as well.

To listen to the interview:
http://www.survivornews.net/snn.php?sid=s6_interviews



Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)

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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 02:14 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Alex: Caught in the Middle"
We haven't been shown Deena to be in the alliance with the young chicks though....And in this week's previews, we see a lot of Jenna, Shawna, Heidi....so without Janet's webchat we wouldn't have known she was in an alliance...

If Jenna,Shawna,Heidi play up the 3 musketeers thing it could cause Deena to question that alliance and show Deena on the fence, but of course in the finale of it, she's better off sticking with the young chicks because of the Joanna/Christy rift.

It could go either way...I'm leaning toward the men, but both tribes have a potential split:

Jabaru: Deena/Joanna/Jeanne vs Heidi/Jenna/Shawna (Christy in the middle)...

Also, Joanna stated when she voted that she is voting Christy for attitude implying that the vote was discussed and Janet was chosen as boot for lack of strenght which Heidi alluded to as well.

Even though Jenna has a vote, I could see Shawna getting the boot as the least athletic of the three if it swung that way...

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02-24-03, 07:04 AM (EST)
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18. "Dawg's $0.02 worth"
First, let me get this one out of the way:

The Reward Challenge becomes an opportunity for the male and female tribes to interact, leading the men to speculate about which women they may have a chance with.

The Knoxville News spoiler (as discussed on TDT) had this one a while back. There will be flirting going on, surely egged on by Jiffy. Then we'll see Magic 8 Ball put back into use to speculate about the guys' chances.

When the women's tribe decides they need a leader, Deena is elected, but some hope she will destroy herself.

CBS is attempting with this one to put some focus on Deena. That is the misdirection. I would think that, at this point, Deena is very safe.

Now, who are the "some" that hopes she destroys herself? Well, we have Joanna's attitude. Also, Jenna seems to be the type that wouldn't like to be bossed around. So they may be candidates. By way of contrast, Christy clearly showed her frustration at nobody getting off their derrieres and working, so she'll probably welcome any leadership that gets things moving.

A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle.

Before replying to this thresd, I made a visit to TDT. I was thinking that Tambaqui would go to TC. TDT, however, presents strong arguments that the Jabbies will go.

Nevertheless, and based partially on last week's show, I think this is about the men. First, I'm having a difficult time seeing the women split along age lines in any scenario. But I'm having an easy time seeing the men so divided.

We know from Ryan's post-show interviews that Rob gets bitten by a previous decision. We saw Alex and Roger have a "spirited" discussion about a (shall we say) political issue. And, of importance to me, I observed several scenes where Daniel was in the middle... not participating, just being there. My "MB alarm" went off at those scenes, asking "Why are we being shown Daniel like this?"

So I am seeing the men's tribe divided almost equally, and along age lines, and someone has to make a decision. That person could be Rob, Matthew, or Alex. Roger and Butch are solidly on one side. Daniel is definitely on the other, and in Ep. 1 we saw Matthew making a deal with him. Now, let's say Rob asks Magic 8 Ball a little too often about the girls, and Roger and Butch get tired of it, and reject Rob. Then ALEX becomes the guy in the middle.

Considering that Matthew has spoiler info that he makes it a good ways, and Alex and Shawna may hook up. Anyone in the middle usually has no loyalty from others, so I surmise this:

IF (and it's a big IF) Tambaqui goes to TC, then Alex will go with the older guys and we say sayonara to Daniel. But then Alex is turned on by Roger/Butch/Dave, saving Matthew long enough to make it to a split or merge, and therefore be saved for a while.


Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 04:16 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth"
FWI, the battle IS on the men's side. I'm too tired to copy the CBS Eyemail but it specifically states that a man is caught in the middle.

Not that this means a man gets the boot, you can be caught in the middle and not even go to TC but that at least clears up the debate on that riddle

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02-26-03, 03:28 PM (EST)
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27. "Semantics?"
The "critical decision" is key to determining if Daniel goes this week or next...The wording makes it sound like the battle "emerges" this week, "leading" to a critical decision in EP4...

"A battle between young and old emerges in one of the tribes, leading to a critical decision for one Survivor caught in the middle."

Sure it's all semantics but, if it all played out this week wouldn't the teaser be phrased "...resulting in a critical decision..." ?


Krautboy

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 04:24 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth"
>>Now, who are the "some" that hopes she destroys herself? Well, we have Joanna's attitude<<

I tend to think this is Joanna too. The other preview says that Deena doesn't want the job of leader and somebody else does. I don't think that any of Shawna, Jenna, Heidi or Christy would want it; possibly it's Jeanne, but I think most likely it's Joanna.

>>Daniel is definitely on the other, and in Ep. 1 we saw Matthew making a deal with him.<<

Dawg, I don't remember Matthew making any deal with Daniel. Ryan persuaded both of them (without much effort) to vote against Roger, but I don't know that Matt and Daniel were really connected to each other except by default.

I also don't think Roger is going to reject Rob yet -- he was apparently surprised and upset to see Rob playing double agent in Ep 1, so I get the feeling Rob may have strung him along for a bit.

As VerucaSalt pointed out elsewhere, the battle itself doesn't necessarily have to involve everyone in the tribe. But I do think the person "caught" will be either Dave or Alex, more likely Alex. It may be that he formed an early alliance with Roger and Butch, and now he has to decide if he still wants to be a part of that.

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02-24-03, 04:38 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth"
I thought that Daniel, Ryan and Matthew made a three-way deal. Hence, my comment. Whether or not that would still stand, I don't know.

Yes, it might be that Alex makes a decision, but gets on the wrong end. Rob goes with Butch-Roger-Dave, and after they see Alex vote with Daniel and Matthew, they realize Alex is not their friend, and Alex goes pre-jury.

After I wrote the "reject Rob" bit, I thought about it some more, and realized that I was mistaken in my personnel. Sumimasen, my bad.


Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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02-24-03, 04:49 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth"
FWIW, my take on the "deal" which could be used loosely, IMO was completely based on the ego of these three men. They just oozed "I won't allow to be bossed around" attitude and I think that was the main decision to get Roger out as opposed to a firm solid we are an alliance type thing.

And ego can change from one minute to the next. Matthew, IMO, think he is a big cheese, Ryan and Daniel both had an ego driven thing AND they saw some writing on their walls. If anything now, Daniel is going to blindly go with whoever suggests anyone else but him to save his skin and I think Matthew and Daniel would naturally gravitate towards each other since they had an earlier meeting of the minds

I think Dave will, along with Roger give Danny boy a vote in a heartbeat

Alex, I'm a little torn but we can see he mended fences with Roger and he "appears" to put logic before ego FOR NOW

I think Rob is going may end up wondering what to do; he clearly thinks Roger is a buffoon but he also stated he knows what to do... "Yes, Roger, No Roger" why stop now?

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-03, 06:18 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Dawg's $0.02 worth"
LAST EDITED ON 02-27-03 AT 05:24 PM (EST)

Dawg, you're right, It may have been a three-way deal, at least for the purposes of that vote. I think Daniel and Matthew would both LIKE to vote against Roger again, and probably will, but it may be a losing battle.

>>Yes, it might be that Alex makes a decision, but gets on the wrong end. Rob goes with Butch-Roger-Dave, and after they see Alex vote with Daniel and Matthew, they realize Alex is not their friend, and Alex goes pre-jury.<<

Now that's an interesting idea. There's been speculation that Alex goes early, but based on what we've seen of him so far, it's been hard for me to picture, even with a switch or early merge. This is how it could happen, though. If Rob is unsure of Alex he may vote with Roger's crew again at the next TC, hanging Alex out to dry if he does decide to vote against Roger.

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