The last show convinced me Matt knows. Here is why:

We (and the actors)knew the love triangle thing was going to happen so we knew Ashleigh and Molly make it to show 4. We knew Hutch advances because he had immunity and that Matt adavances or the show ends. We know Brian is one of the writers and is there to make revisions on the fly. So that left Pat, Kip and Earl.

I suspect the producers have told the actors who is getting booted each week. Even if they have not there was still an obvious 1 in 3 chance Earl was going so it likely was not the shock value that made them cry.

I think they cried because they were told to. The jibberish about connecting with Earl was a ruse. I think they were told to cry and act sad because the producers told them they were worried how it would look if Matt broke down and they did not. They also told Matt to break down. So they were each putting on their acts.

The fact Matt went to his room and did not mourn with the other contestants is the icing on the cake. What was with that soliloquy he delivered from his chair directly to the camera?