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"Is it a sure thing?"
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barrymore 42 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-02, 10:51 PM (EST)
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"Is it a sure thing?"
Hey all.

Many offshore gambling companies have odds on the final four -- ie. who will win Survivor Thailand. Brian is a heavy favorite at 2-5 (ie. bet 5 win 2). So what do you think is it a sure thing? Money in the bank???

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Is it a sure thing? Sexishelly 12-16-02 1
   RE: Is it a sure thing? SurvivinDawg 12-16-02 2
       RE: Is it a sure thing? frisky 12-16-02 3
       RE: Is it a sure thing? jsanb 12-16-02 4
           RE: Is it a sure thing? Masquerade_Mole 12-16-02 5
 RE: Is it a sure thing? Draco Malfoy 12-17-02 6
   RE: Is it a sure thing? tanyafrommd 12-17-02 7
       RE: Is it a sure thing? SurvivinDawg 12-17-02 8
           RE: Is it a sure thing? Draco Malfoy 12-17-02 9
               RE: Is it a sure thing? Booted 12-17-02 10
                   RE: Is it a sure thing? Draco Malfoy 12-17-02 11
                       RE: Is it a sure thing? toddE 12-17-02 12
                       RE: Is it a sure thing? bubbastan 12-17-02 13
                       RE: Is it a sure thing? VerucaSalt 12-17-02 14
                           RE: Is it a sure thing? frisky 12-17-02 18
                       RE: Is it a sure thing? justalurker 12-17-02 15
                           RE: Is it a sure thing? Zentar 12-17-02 16
 RE: Is it a sure thing? Jims02 12-17-02 17
 I hate Clay!! BMH 12-17-02 19
   RE: I hate Clay!! Spidey 12-17-02 20
 If Brian wins...... steppingrazor42 12-19-02 21
   RE: If Brian wins...... JeffHo 12-19-02 22
 RE: Is it a sure thing? TheWanderer 12-19-02 23

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Sexishelly 49 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-02, 10:05 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
I am betting heavily against Brian. The TV Guide title for the Final Episode is "Slip Through Your Fingers" and I think that is exactly what will happen to a first place finish by Brian. Here's why:

The previews show dunken granny janny, screaming out in delight. I would speculate because she wins the immunity challenge and guarantees herself a spot in the Final 3. Brian at this point has to plot to boot either Helen or Clay. Well of course he boots Helen because he needs Clay with him in the Final 2. Not only that, Brian now needs to at least attempt to win the next immunity challenge because drunken granny janny is not a sure thing to take him to the finals. Brian wins and brings Clay to the Final 2 which of course outrages a scorned Helen who is still mad about having been booted over Clay for the Final 3 to see Brian bring the undeserving lazy Clay to the Final 2. She, along with Ted possibly, gives a rat/snake speech and convinces the Sookies Brian is scum and Clay who is a leech is actually more deserving of the win. Clay pulls it out by a narrow margin while Brian watches his victory "Slip through his fingers."

I have never been right before and I may not be now. But that is my story and I am sticking to it.

Sexi -- in need of a cool signature tag.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-02, 10:43 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Personally, I think the title is typical SeeBS/MB misdirection, intended to put doubt in our spoiling minds about Brian's almost sure win.

I suspect that the title is going to focus on CLAY, and the victory will slip through HIS fingers, not Brian's.



"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-02, 11:44 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
I gotta go with the Dawg on this.

Slip Through Your Fingers could mean anyone's win slipping through their fingers.

Could be the sand that slips through the fingers.

Could be those stoopid tie-breaker rocks slipping through someone's fingers.

Could be Jan losing something in the IC, i.e. she gets over one leg of the challenge and screams out halleluja and then falls or something and loses it at the finish line.

It could fit any scenario.

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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-02, 12:35 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
I agree with Dawg on this also. While I WAS not convinced that Ted was not the partner for Brian in the final, I am now convinced that Clay and Brian are the final two;)

Could Clay win that showdown? Possible, as the SJ's could seek revenge and give it to Clay, but I SERIOUSLY doubt that is the case. Brian beats Clay in the final vote 5- 2.


Peanut Butter Jeff
"If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."

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Masquerade_Mole 18 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-02, 01:58 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Is there any chance of the purple rock returning and Brian gets screwed after a tie vote? I hope victory slips through his fingers. Maybe C.C. beat him up for losing the million.
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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 09:48 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
No, I don't think so. The first rule of Survivor is "Strategies revealed do not succeed". We've seen Jan's strategy (what little there is), Helen's strategy (ride Brian's coattails), and Brian's strategy (the three fingers). What have we seen from Clay? NOTHING. No strategy to speak of. And how much do people discuss the game at Jury Lodge? What if the former CGs realize that Brian had an alliance with ALL of them? Brian has been duplicitous the entire game, and although people may not realize it during the game, they'll have to realize it when they start talking at Jury Lodge.

I think a Clay win is more likely than anyone realizes.


The Chamber of Secrets Has Been Opened. Enemies of the Heir... Beware!

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tanyafrommd 25 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 11:37 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"

>I think a Clay win is
>more likely than anyone realizes.


I think NOT! Clay has been edited in a negative light throughtout this ENTIRE series. I think it is highly unlikely the winner would have been edited in such a manner. He is a real turn off to alot of folks.... he comes across as a mean-ass hillbilly weasel.... I will "sell my booty" if he wins....NO
WAY CLAY WILL WIN!!!!

I think the final 2 are Jan and Brian or Jan and Clay.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 11:50 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
I agree with tanya here. If they were to have Clay win after the way he's been edited in this series, in light of the Vecepia editing fiasco in Survivor 4, it would be a disaster for the future of the show. Is MB smart enough to know that? Time will tell.


Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 12:13 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Oh, I'm not saying that Clay winning is a GOOD thing. I'm just saying that, using the TDT spoiler as a jumping off point, and using MB's "strategies revealed" editing, it makes sense that Brian's strategy will ultimately fail.


The Chamber of Secrets Has Been Opened. Enemies of the Heir... Beware!

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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 12:27 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
To all:

Are you saying Brian is being edited in a better good light than Clay? If TDT spoiler is correct, neither one of the finalist are going to look good.

If I had to choose a friend I would choose Clay hands down. One thing with Clay is you know where you stand with him, with Brian you NEVER know!

Boot Ed

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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 12:42 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Exactly. Neither Clay nor Brian is a wonderful person. But Clay doesn't hide who he is. He's a jerk, sure, but he's a genuine jerk. Brian, like most car dealers has one hand on your shoulder and another fingering the knife behind his back, just waiting for you to turn around. It's the rat and the snake all over again.

Admittedly I like Clay, but I know I'm in the minority.


The Chamber of Secrets Has Been Opened. Enemies of the Heir... Beware!

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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 12:55 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
This has no spoiler value, but I also prefer Clay to Brian. They, along with Jan, have been predicted finalists from the get-go. The main reason I'd expect Brian to win is because, as has been said many times, last season he hid the winner-to compensate, this season he's been broadcasting the winner from the start. I think.


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bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 01:02 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Draco, you're not the only Clay supporter, count me in too. He's a character, for sure, but he's a genuine character, and I don't think that he's as mean-spirited as he's being edited. Most of the Suckies had positive things to say about his sense of humor, and of the potential jury only Ted and Helen have come out with negative things about him at this point.

I think that it's likely that Brian wins. The Sookie jury folks who have been booted, but are now doing their post-boot interviews, seem surprised by Brian's comments during confessionals now that they are watching the show, indicating that he most likely duped them.

However, nothing is a sure thing, and I think that it's not out of the realm of possibility that a few Sookies and possibly a few upset or fairly neutral Chewies might toss some votes Clay's way, making the vote closer than what it might appear to be, or even possibly giving him a 4-3 win.

The editing has been peculiar, with neither Clay nor Brian being shown in a particularly good light, so I don't think that the average viewer will be very pleased with either of our potential winners. Neither rates highly in the CBS popularity poles, although Brian is higher than Clay by quite a bit.

Aside from Jan, Clay's the biggest underdog left, so I am pulling for him to take this thing.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 01:12 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Draco I like Clay too so count me in the minority. To be really in the minority, I like Brian as well (please don't throw tomatoes)

With regard to the editing and arguments of showing the winner in negative light, etc. I went back to old posts on all different boards (I posted my theory under my other SN so I am not plagarizing and amazingly, Brian was a definite favor by a vast majority of posters on many boards. This seemed to change approximately in October. It seems that once the "bad" editing hit, everyone forgot how wonderful of a player and a very low key, unassuming and nice person Brian seemed to be. Go check out old posts, Brian was NOT viewed by the majority as this wretched human being he is not shown to be and viewed as.

The harshest comments I saw were he is a snake/shark, watch out for him. Now I am seeing on sites, he is disgusting, makes me sick, etc.

To make a long post just a wee bit longer this is fascinating to me and I wonder if this is exactly what was supposed to happen. Brian warned us from the beginning, Don't Judge a Book by It's Cover and we fell for it (or a lot of us did) Remember how low key he seemed? How he just kind of listened without us hearing anything from him but he wasn't invisible because he was the "go to guy" his tribe really really liked and respected.

His tribe and the audience got scammed by a used car salesman. He sold us some lemons and we bought them.

MB makes his adjustments on the way to try and keep this show somewhat different. Hell he heard the criticism about Rosie and now "no song or dance...." we get Jeff.

Season 1 we got the condescending, arrogant, snake of Richard who we saw from the start; by the time he won the audience was already immune to him so it didn't piss us off as much and his tribe mates (or most of them) knew what a slime he was.

Season 2 we saw some good conflicts in the tribes, Alicia/Kimmy, Jerri and EVERYONE plus Michael's leaving but since Sucky got blown to pieces, we couldnt get a lot of fireworks from Chewy, they worked so damn well together.

Season 3 was the new twist of switching tribes which by now we expect

Season 4 we got the invisible strategy and well, we know how that was viewed by a substantial audience.

So with season 5, MB wants to go back to showing us the deal a little more; couldn't really do that with the tribe itself because of how well they got along despite their "strategies". So he gives us the "go to guy" to root for. Touch of Rich, with a bit of Ethan, a little Colby (quoted directly from a poster) and then ha ha joke's on you, here ya go, don't judge a book by its cover and people are hating him! Sexist, self righteous, cocky jerk! What happened to two months ago when he was an audience favorite and before that he was downright Survivor' poster child for Survivor of the Century (please note this is what I have viewed in prior posts on all different boards - I'm not speaking for everyone but check for yourself, the views were mostly very positive) New way of handing us the winner? Perhaps. We got scammed just like Brian's tribe mates did. Sold us a big fat lemon and the taste is sour!

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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 04:02 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Well, he won't be survivor of the century if he doesn't win.

If he does win, then he played a great game. He duped them all. They blinked and they got scammed by a used car salesman.

I find the likeability factor goes up and down throughout the season, depending on where MB's editing takes them. I'll admit that I may have hated Clay sometimes, liked him OK sometimes and same with Brian.

I don't waver, however, when it comes to the criteria for "deserving" to win. Likeability is not a factor. If the cocky bastard screws everyone around and gets first place, he deserves it, and the "nice" and "good" people who want to play with "integrity" should apply for Big Brother.

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justalurker 7 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 01:44 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
Count me in as well...I am crossing my fingers that this takes a twist and Brian is booted out. He is so full of himself. I used to really like him but lately I think he's been edited as one cocky son of a gun. Personally I think as of late that Clay has been put in a better light than Brian. Clay hasn't done anything that bothers me. I kind of like him and hope he wins over Brian.

-Justa

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Zentar 19 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 03:50 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"

Are you guys reading my mind? I could not have said it better.

With Clay, he is a jerk, but he is the same in front of you as he is when your away. With Brian he treats you like his closest freind until you walk away, at which point he is the first one to stab you in the back. I expect Clay and Brian to go to the end, but I hope Clay wins.

Another point, have you notice when Brian booted out each member of the old tribe, at each tribal council meeting, he basically slammed the person on the way out. Each one, this person is going because I think they are lazy, this person just couldn't get along and has a bad attitude, etc, etc. Good way to treat people you are sending to your jury....

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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 04:01 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-02 AT 04:07 PM (EST)

I've been lurking for awhile, but I just wanted to throw in an idea...

Pending Immunity, many people have speculated that Brian will eliminate Janny in the Final 4, to secure a Final 2 position with Helen or Clay. I think this is plausible, but I wanted to add a spin to this idea.

What if Helen wins the final IC, and votes Brian off? I haven't really seen any posts about the possibilities of a Helen IC win... Helen's had the strategy to get rid of Clay for quite some time now. However, in the Final 3, it doesn't matter who you WANTED to get rid of. What matters is your chances of winning the jury.

Hopefully (prob not... This is Survivor) Helen will realize that if she wants to win the game, Brian's got to go.

That would also correlate to Helen's confessional a few episodes back about Brian's wealth:

"If I was against Brian, that would be enough for me to vote him off"

It also hints at what Janny said during the last episode:

"Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer"

Brian is Helen's closest "friend" on the island. Clay would obviously be her "enemy." You finish the logic.

Many have said that Colby was a fool to take Tina to the Finals with him. What we would have here is another Colby decision. Would Helen take Brian (Tina) or Clay (Keith)???

Edit: HERE'S FOR HOPING!

Quotes of the week
1. "You will NOT see my ta-ta's" -Shii Ann

2. "Do they think I'm too controlling?" -Helen (um, yeah)
3. "My two year old (had a tantrum) one time and I whupped its @$$ and put it back to bed." -Clay
4. "I'm putting in an order for a bigger butt in my next life." -Jan (randomly)

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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 06:42 PM (EST)
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19. "I hate Clay!!"
I hate Clay more than anyone else this season..and the only good thing about Clay winning is that Vee would no longer be the worst winner to most!

PS-I seriouly doubt this troll will win..he has been edited so badly..

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-02, 10:37 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: I hate Clay!!"
PS-I seriouly doubt this troll will win..he has been edited so badly..

Completely agree.

I can't see MB making the mistake of editing a winner in the light Clay has been shown.

First, after a pretty good season with some good characters, S4's ending sucked. Vee might actually have been a worthy winner, had we ever seen her DO anything. He had a lot of good material to work with and was very intent on hiding the winner. It totally backfired and we were dissatisfied.

Before that, in S3, it's a good thing Ethan was good looking and sweet. After a boring season, the winner was boring but palatable.

Things have been going downhill. He is going back to the original formula. No matter who the winner is, that is all he has to work with. And no matter how all-powerful MB is, he can't dictate who wins. (Clearly he would have "picked" Kathy in S4.) Looking at our alleged F2, Clay and Brian:

Clay - has been edited as lazy and undeserving. Supposedly he has a pretty good sense of humor from what some have said. If he is the winner, why not play that up? Why include Helen's comment that he doesn't deserve a final 2 spot? And a whole bunch of other stuff. We have seen him be anything but nice and deserving of the prize. Unless of course he has no reedeming qualitites whatsoever...

Brian - is kinda a scumbag. Dique-like but sleezy too. Do you hide him or display him if he is the winner? Those are your options. His confessionals are all game play and his personality is strong. Could you imagine what this would have been like if Brian got Vee editing? We'd have turned off the TV when Shii Ann got voting out, if not sooner.

The absolute only way Clay can be our winner, based on the editing, is if MB's crack editing team completly disregarded his instructions while he was away on the S6 set and really don't want to keep their jobs.


An IceCat Original, 2002

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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings
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12-19-02, 03:21 PM (EST)
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21. "If Brian wins......"
LAST EDITED ON 12-19-02 AT 03:23 PM (EST)

If Brian actually wins then this editing team made no effort what so ever to make it a mystery!!!! I can't believe the way they have edited him this season, it has been so damn obvious he's going to win, especially with the Jiffy comment about someone being Hatchesque. I want Clay yo win just so I'll be 1/2 way surprised. I wish there could be a happy medium. Is it becoming too predictable?

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JeffHo 5 desperate attention whore postings
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12-19-02, 06:25 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: If Brian wins......"
It seems like this season's been leading up to Helen either deciding to stick with Brian to the end or turning on him to give herself a better shot at winning (ie. her comment about his cars being enough to vote him off, her strategy discussion with her husband, and her scheming from last week's episode). It would appear that this all leads to Jan being voted off first, then Helen winning the final IC and having to pick Brian or Clay.

After last season's Vee from the shadows ending, it would make sense that the editing for this winner would be more visible but would MB really allow the winner to be so obvious again after Ethan? It seems like he's trying to lead us hard with Brian while showing us how Helen has been considering her options.

Then, if Helen does pick Clay to go to the final 2, the Sookies would probably rather have her win than Clay. Even though some of the Sooks have been positive about Clay in their interviews perhaps that's just because they have gotten back at him after he lied to them about getting rid of Ted.

Through this reasoning, it seems that Helen is the winner with Clay, Brian, and Jan getting 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. Any thoughts?

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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12-19-02, 06:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Is it a sure thing?"
LAST EDITED ON 12-19-02 AT 06:33 PM (EST)

Haven't been able to particiapte on these boards very much this season. Work has been keeping me way too busy.
Anyway, Brian isn't as bad as some people are trying to paint now. Yes, he's been duplicitous; but isn't that what the game is all about? "Outplay, Outwit, Outlast"
They all know going in that either they get stabbed in the back by someone at one point or another, or they do the stabbing themselves.
But think of this... if Brian or Helen win final immunity, then Brian is assured a place in the F2. However, if Clay wins final immunity, he is just cocky enough to bring Helen with him to the F2, thinking he could win against Helen, but probably not against Brian. Therefore, the incentive is for Brian to win immunity and take Clay. Although Helen would be pissed (and if you were in her shoes) would you not understand? If the prize is $1M wouldn't you understand that the winner of the final immunity would want to bring someone with them that they believe they have a better chance against? More or less a "sure thing" vs a questionable win?
If the F2 are Brian and Clay, the Brian will definitely win. The loser of the F3 has no time to lobby other votes; that person only has a short time to make a rat/snake speech.

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