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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-13-02, 00:14 AM (EST) "Final Four Speculation" Starting this thread for various speculation on what order you believe that the final four will finish. Here's my thoughts, but please add yours to the list, and feel free to comment on various theories!!! Time to work this all out! We heard two critical pieces of information this week. First, Brian has a vote order all planned out: Jan, then lose final IC on purpose and get carried to the finals by either Clay or Helen. Secondly, Jan tells us that she hasn't won a single IC yet. What would throw a monkey wrench into Brian's plans??? Jan wins IC. Since we know the final two, it seems that Helen must be eliminated at that point, leaving a final three of Jan, Clay, Brian. Then, either Clay or Brian wins immunity and takes the other to the finals. I predict that it will actually be Brian that wins that immunity. Why? necessary to build suspense. The only way that we do NOT know who wins is if Brian ultimately betrays EVERYONE on Chuay Ghan. Yes... we know that no one likes Clay, but if each CG member is systematically betrayed by Brian, the final vote suddenly becomes a lot closer!!! So my early predictions for next week are: IC: Jan Boot: Helen IC: Brian Boot: Jan Final Vote: Brian wins... but it's closer than we imagined when we first heard these two were in the finals!! Your thoughts? You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Final Four Speculation TribalTex29 12-13-02 1    On the ICs SuperClyde 12-13-02 2        RE: On the ICs ivoryElephant 12-13-02 3            RE: On the ICs JohnMc 12-13-02 15            Clay in F2 no matter what Bebo 12-13-02 16        RE: On the ICs sleeeve 12-13-02 4  RE: Final Four Speculation Outfrontgirl 12-13-02 5    RE: Final Four Speculation SurvivinDawg 12-13-02 6        RE: Final Four Speculation VerucaSalt 12-13-02 7            RE: Final Four Speculation LithLady 12-13-02 9    RE: JP interview after Ghandia boot VolcanicGlass 12-15-02 35  Just putting in my agreement weltek 12-13-02 8    RE: Just putting in my agreement PepeLePew13 12-13-02 10        RE: Just putting in my agreement Brownroach 12-13-02 17            RE: Just putting in my agreement SurvivinDawg 12-13-02 20            RE: Just putting in my agreement katem 12-13-02 23                RE: Just putting in my agreement Loree 12-13-02 24  RE: Final Four Speculation bichon 12-13-02 11    RE: Final Four Speculation tanyafrommd 12-13-02 12  RE: Final Four Speculation FesterFan1 12-13-02 13  TDT agrees with Sleeeve bebekid 12-13-02 14  What did we learn from S1 JohnMc 12-13-02 18  RE: Final Four Speculation Brownroach 12-13-02 19  RE: Final Four Speculation Outfrontgirl 12-13-02 21    RE: Final Four Speculation SurvivinDawg 12-13-02 22  RE: Final Four Speculation I_AM_HE 12-14-02 25    I agree I AM HE cowboyroo 12-14-02 28    RE: Final Four Speculation Outfrontgirl 12-14-02 29        RE: Final Four Speculation I_AM_HE 12-14-02 30  Clay wins steppingrazor42 12-14-02 26  King Brian Wins IslandFever 12-14-02 27    RE: King Brian Wins Loree 12-14-02 31  RE: Final Four Speculation NTK 12-14-02 32    RE: Final Four Speculation bubbastan 12-14-02 33  RE: Final Four Speculation BaquaR13 12-14-02 34  RE: Final Four Speculation samboohoo 12-15-02 36    RE: Final Four Speculation LithLady 12-16-02 37    RE: Final Four Speculation VerucaSalt 12-16-02 38  J/H/C/B frisky 12-16-02 39    RE: J/H/C/B pancho 12-17-02 46  Vidcap Misdirection Krautboy 12-17-02 40    RE: Vidcap Misdirection Outfrontgirl 12-17-02 41        RE: Vidcap Misdirection GuessItRains 12-17-02 42            "Enemies Closer" Krautboy 12-17-02 45        RE: Vidcap Misdirection Krautboy 12-17-02 44  RE: Final Four Speculation Draco Malfoy 12-17-02 43    RE: Final Four Speculation I_AM_HE 12-17-02 47        RE: Final Four Speculation VerucaSalt 12-17-02 48

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TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-13-02, 00:34 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Final Four Speculation" I agree with you completely. I do have to wonder however, what is the big agreement/alliance between Brian and Clay? They were never really close, and from what I gather, the only reason Brian kept Clay around is because he knew the women weren't too thrilled with him and that if necessary, they would have chose to keep him over Clay in the end. At this point it is clear where Brian stands. So is this something that was shown to be the dark horse and throw off the viewer. The only surprise I could see would be to see Brian go next. And the only way that could ever possibly happen would be if Jan and Clay had an alliance all along that was never shown. (it was pretty obvious that Clay disliked Jan from the beginning) and the three remaining-Jan, Helen, and Clay get rid of Brian next. That would be the best route for any of them. Damn, looks to me like Clay has it. And that sucks.   Top

SuperClyde 87 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-13-02, 01:11 AM (EST) 2. "On the ICs" I agree that it was strange to throw Jan's comment in there unless it was foreshadowing an IC win. The trouble is, if we believe the vidcap picture of Brian winning the F4 IC, that means Jan must win F3 IC, which doesn't get us to the F2 we're expecting. I guess that means one of these things MUST be wrong: 1. Brian wins F4 IC. Evidence of this comes from the vidcap. We've been tricked by this in the past, but we know that it's not from F5 TC and that Brian's never won IN before. 2. Jan wins an IC. Only evidence is the comment in EP12 that seemed out of place and could only serve as foreshadowing a Jan IC win. 3. Brian and Clay are F2. I must confess, I know we got it from TDT, but I'm still not clear on why we're so sure of this. Another thing is the speculation that came from Helen's husband's comment that Helen did not come to finish 3rd. Some of us saw this as foreshadowing a Helen 3rd place finish. For that to be accurate, at least one of the three points above must be wrong, too.   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 12-13-02, 01:26 AM (EST) 3. "RE: On the ICs" sleeeve you took the words out of my mouth. Brian has a plan to boot jan and then he is gauranteed a final 2 spot since helen and clay won't take eachother to the finals. I am sure that Helen goes because of Jakes chat where he said he was rooting for her. Clay has already said the words of death "I am going all the way, I am gonna take home the cash" (something like that) So it seems obvious that Brian wins. But why would MB edit it this way? Is it an effect of inVEEsible? He has decided to show us the winner because we would never expect it? In my ep. 1 analysis I was torn between brian and clay. that along with TDT and other spoilers makes it seem like brian or clay wins. Here is how it stands Brian: edited to be the winner, made obvious like Richard and Lex. The question is: Is Brian richard or lex? Helen: Edited as playing the game very well but not having the cards in her hand. She must win the final ic to make the final 2. She is edited like Teresa and Kathy. Someone who plays the game hard and is likeable but doesn't win. Jakes chat put the nail in her coffin. Clay: He is the goat. He is edited like Keith. The perfect final 2 partner. Can the goat win in the end? Only if Brian pissed everyone off enough. Jan: The clueless old weak lady. The only person I can see her beating is Clay, but I can't see anyone taking her to the finals and she is just too weak and her mind is gone. "I got a kiss from Clay Jordan, oh my god am I queen for a day" - Helen Glover   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 12-13-02, 11:33 AM (EST) 15. "RE: On the ICs" So it seems obvious that Brian wins. But why would MB edit it this way? Is it an effect of inVEEsible? He has decided to show us the winner because we would never expect it? A Brian win is obvious, therefore it can't be. Brian: edited to be the winner, made obvious like Richard and Lex. The question is: Is Brian richard or lex? Brian is both Richard and Lex. Lex didn't betray anyone, but Richard very slyly snaked his way out of his alliance w/Rudy. What place does he get? not sure. Helen: Edited as playing the game very well but not having the cards in her hand. She must win the final ic to make the final 2. She is edited like Teresa and Kathy. Someone who plays the game hard and is likeable but doesn't win. Wholeheartedly agreed! Clay: He is the goat. He is edited like Keith. The perfect final 2 partner. Can the goat win in the end? Only if Brian pissed everyone off enough. He really can't win against anyone. He should be playing for F2, but not to win. He would lose against Helen, Jan, and Brian (as well as Ted had he stayed). Jan: The clueless old weak lady. The only person I can see her beating is Clay, but I can't see anyone taking her to the finals and she is just too weak and her mind is gone. She isn't as clueless as you think. She's so emotional that she creates a pet cemetary that hardly anyone knows about until after the show. But she's totally in the game. She had Jake believing that she only wanted to be on the jury, but she told Helen that she would only vote against Clay (which she didn't) if it served her best. She wants more than to be on the jury; she wants to go as far as she can go. She's the MamaKim of this game, only she could actually get votes because people like her and not because of screwing up a jury speech.   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 12:16 PM (EST) 16. "Clay in F2 no matter what" Clay: He is the goat. He is edited like Keith. The perfect final 2 partner. Leaving the TDT spoiler out of the equation, I don't have a shadow of a doubt that Clay is in the final 2. All three of the remaining players have recognized that they want to face him in the final 2. Jan: Made her comment about keeping your friends close but your enemies closer. Not interested in voting out Clay, even though she knew they had the necessary 3 votes if she voted with Ted and Helen. Helen: At TC, she was asked about winning, and her response stressed contribution to the tribe and being a hard worker. She knows that the SJ thought Clay was lazy, so she knows she could just keep stressing hard-working vs. lazy during the final TC comments to try and secure the 4 votes needed to win. She doesn't like him, but she feels confident she can beat him, so he serves her purpose. Brian: ROFL when I saw which finger he used to denote "Uncle Clay". Made buddies with him so that if they are in the final 3, he has a 2 out of 3 chance of getting into the finals, since he knows Clay would pick him if Clay won the final IC. And now, here's Bebo's current wild speculation on how the final 4 goes down: - Jan wins the first IC. The picture was misdirection before the challenge starts, as Sleeeve suggests. Yes, the challenge could even be before "Fallen Comrades", because Jeff could have them grab a pen and paper and spread out once he has described the challenge. Helen is voted out, fufilling her husband's words that she didn't come here to finish 3rd when she comes in 4th. - Clay wins the final IC and picks Brian, fufilling Jan's words from long ago that "Clay doesn't forgive". He's not about to give her a chance for a million, when she voted against him pre-merge. Besides, he knows that the SJ think he's lazy, and he's not about to have one of the "hard workers" in camp up against him. He's going to make it harder for the SJ to figure out who to vote for, trying to turn it into a strategy match instead of just handing the prize to the biggest worker bee. - In a surprise vote, Clay takes home the prize, as the win slips through Brian's fingers. Does Brian make a comment at the final TC that blows the victory for him? This fufills Clay's underdog comment from the first episode. The last point is the one I'm weakest on, but then again, at this point in S1, I didn't think Richard Hatch had a chance in hell of taking home the money. And let's not even talk about S4.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-13-02, 01:28 AM (EST) 4. "RE: On the ICs" LAST EDITED ON 12-13-02 AT 01:30 AM (EST) >1. Brian wins F4 IC. > Evidence of this comes >from the vidcap. We've >been tricked by this in >the past, but we know >that it's not from F5 >TC and that Brian's never >won IN before. The vidcap is not fake, but feel free to go back and watch your tapes. In every Survivor since S1, Jiffy starts the final four (in S2, it was final three) TC with questions to the group, just as normal... then he asks for the necklace back, then they do the immunity challenge. This is designed to throw everyone off guard if someone unexpected wins (as happened in S1, S4, and apparently S5). After the immunity winner is declared, Jiffy doesn't ask any questions... he merely opens up the floor to any final comments (ie deal making) before the vote happens. So the vidcap is EXACTLY what we expect for the first TC... Brian is still wearing his necklace, and Clay is answering Jiffy's question... the IC hasn't even begun yet. You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 04:26 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Final Four Speculation" There was that very interesting interview with JP after the Ghandia boot, where Jeff said he and crew try to convince EPM to show a story straight but EPM loves the red herring. He said Ghandia was one story they persuaded him to tell straight through, and there would be one more such straightforward story arc. Which may just be that Brian's plan plays out as he envisions it. Jan-Helen-Clay-Brian   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 08:11 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Final Four Speculation" I agree with Outfrontgirl, and I also would like to bring up one other point: The Bootee will depend on what the Immunity Challenge is. Now before you shout "Well, DUH!", the problem is what kind of challenge it is. If it is (as I believe it will be) "Fallen Comrades", then Jan has an outstanding chance of winning. Therefore, sleeeve's example of foreshadowing comes true. If it is a physical challenge, then Jan has very little shot of winning, while Helen stands a good shot to win. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-13-02, 08:40 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Final Four Speculation" Again, I'll reiterate Brian said it in the beginning; This is a business and IMO, outside of small contingencies that arise in every business, it is the employer's business to lose. Out of his loyal secretary, retiring secretary, dirty office manager and manager in training, he got rid of the manager in training who tried to start his own business and failed. With his loyal secretary, dirty office manager and retiring secretary by his side; he mulls over who he doesn't require anymore. His retiring secretary put her time in, was the body he needed and now can have her gold watch. His two most integral employees to his business, the loyal secretary and the dirty office manager are there to win the boss's favor. They are on equal ground in the hierarchy of employees. His secretary bends his ear with all the office gossip and the dirty office manager is his bad guy who does the boss's dirty work so the boss's hands look clean. The office manager and secretary have always had a possessive nature towards their boss and naturally their animosity grows because they want to be numero uno in their boss's eyes. The boss sits back and allows them to duke it out to be employee of the year. And which one will that be? Well it depends on the project they are given and who is most qualified to handle it. The fired employees sit and wait and think. Well the Sucky employees were fired really before the new boss got into power. Ted the manager has reasons to be upset with the boss, loyal secretary and office manager and Jan is just grateful for her watch. So the question remains does the boss reap the profits in the end. After all, what did he really do to hurt his employees? He only gave subtle suggestions, didn't his employees, after all, take the initiative and the blind thoughts of promotion to perhaps compromise their work ethic? Or will the employee who ends up in the #2 position be looked at by the fired employees as a pawn in the boss's company and the real responsibility lies with the employer? Of note: outside of the chance that the retiring secretary finds one last open spot to work a little longer (immunity) she is not necessary to the business anymore. If that is the case, the employer NOW must be shown being somewhat dirty and alas his loyal secretary has to go but only because the employer knows in the world of business, you'll end up with the contract if you are opposite someone who doesn't have the best track record. And after all, the odds of the retiring secretary having ANOTHER position open up for her again against two strong, conniving men, statistically not likely to happen. Fired - retiring secretary Fired - loyal secretary And the office manager and the employer square off against the ousted employees to determine who conducted business more ethically?, strategically? morally? trustworthy?   Top

LithLady 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-13-02, 09:41 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Final Four Speculation" >Or will the employee who ends >up in the #2 position >be looked at by the >fired employees as a pawn >in the boss's company and >the real responsibility lies with >the employer? > Does this explain Brian's confessional where he lays out his plan - counting out the remaining players on his fingers and when he gets to one left (Clay), only his middle finger is up. Brian, trying to seem joking or like he just noticed, says "whoops" or something like that.   Top

VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-15-02, 03:36 PM (EST) 35. "RE: JP interview after Ghandia boot" There was that very interesting interview with JP after the Ghandia boot, where Jeff said he and crew try to convince EPM to show a story straight but EPM loves the red herring. He said Ghandia was one story they persuaded him to tell straight through, and there would be one more such straightforward story arc. Hi Outfrontgirl - Would you have a link to that interview? Thanks!   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 09:37 AM (EST) 8. "Just putting in my agreement" I agree with Sleeve's theory and the OFG post about the straight forward arc. I cannot see it playing out any different to the final two. As to the winner, Brian needs to be careful about who he pisses off. I have always kept Ken's comments about his knowing Brian was a porn actor in the back of my head. Something about the way he didn't make a big deal out of it led me to believe it was supporting evidence for a Brian win. Silly to make that big leap, but I think he carries respect for Brian despite his career choice. Respect now=respect and while still in the game=vote for Brian in the finals. Not that Ken's vote makes all the difference, just sayin.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 09:57 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Just putting in my agreement" >I have always kept Ken's comments about his knowing >Brian was a porn actor in the back of my head. >Something about the way he didn't make a big deal >out of it led me to believe it was supporting >evidence for a Brian win. Silly to make that >big leap, but I think he carries respect for Brian >despite his career choice. Respect now=respect and while >still in the game=vote for Brian in the finals. Not >that Ken's vote makes all the difference, just sayin. This has been bugging me for some time. It might not make a whole lot of difference to Ken, but I have a hard time seeing him not bringing it up with the other SJs in Loser Lodge and what if some of them might use this as an excuse to not vote for Brian ("he's probably got money from it" or "no way can I vote for someone with a sleazy background" - take your pick of excuses)? This is the type of gossip that is difficult to keep clammed up about especially when you're isolated in Loser Lodge with three others for days and Ken/Penny/Jake can fill in Erin about how C.C. looked in the video. Also, what if someone (i.e. someone to whom Ken mentioned in passing about Brian) brought it up as a question during the final TC? How would Brian answer that?   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 01:49 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Just putting in my agreement" Pepe, I put in my two cents about this on another thread awhile ago, but I'll repost it here. I doubt that Ken seriously thought about outing Brian's past to anyone, either while in the game or while on the jury. Brian didn't straight-out tell him anything, Ken only had a hunch, based on the fact that Brian knew certain people. He said he "wasn't surprised" that Brian had starred in those movies, so I believe he only found out for sure when it was revealed in the media. And Ken doesn't seem like the gossipy type, but if he did want to plant gossip, the question might arise, "who are these people and why does KEN know them?" It might have actually worked against Ken. Ken may or may not have thought of that as well, but either way, I don't see that it would have been hard at all for him to keep it quiet. My take is that Ken's comment was more him thinking about it in hindsight, i.e. if he had considered using his suspicions against Brian, he would have decided not to.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 02:16 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Just putting in my agreement" I agree with Brownroach. I don't think Brian's acting career had or has any effect on the game or voting. Even if Ken suspected ("I saw a late-night film on Cinemax, and that guy looked JUST like Brian!"), it was probably not even considered important enough. And I'm sure that the SJ's (and rest of the jury) would not care less about the moral issues, after playing the great-betrayal game of Survivor. Even if they knew, I think the overall attitude might be "So what?" This ain't Rodger and Elisabeth out there, it's Jake and Penny, etc. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-13-02, 02:56 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Just putting in my agreement" Ken said on the Early Show, that he was not going to torpedo someone's shot at the million because of their past, as his explanation for not telling on Brian. I think Ken voted FOR Brian in the end. (c) 2002 GeorgiaBelle Creations, Inc. All rights reserved   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 04:39 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Just putting in my agreement" I agree. I think Ken voted for Brian. And then while watching the show he saw how Brian made fun imitating him on the show. That is when Ken got mad and the reason he sounded a little upset with Brian in his interviews. He had voted for this guy to win the $ and now he finds out he was laughing behind his back.   Top

bichon 124 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-13-02, 10:10 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Final Four Speculation" pardon me for asking since i haven't been on the board for quite a while but how do you know brian and clay are in the F2?   Top

tanyafrommd 25 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-13-02, 10:18 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Final Four Speculation" It seems to me that Jan is being edited as our UTR Survivor 5 winner. I don't think Brian or Clay will win. Jan will win the F3 Immunity Challenge and probably take Brian or Helen..but she will win. None are deserving so who cares..... I will take the rest of my comments to Basher's.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 10:56 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Final Four Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 12-13-02 AT 11:30 AM (EST) IMO, this is going to be the most anti-climactic finale ever. The vidcap evidence seems to indicate that Brian wins the F4 IC, however I just snuck a peek at TDT, and their logic about a Jan win looks pretty sound. With Jan winning the F4 IC at TC, Brian will have to think on his toes, a la Lex, Ethan and Tom in S3. He will have to dump his "loyal soldier" because he can't beat her in the finals. Clay will also vote Helen. Helen will vote for Clay (maybe Brian). Will Jan ice her dear friend Helen? Or will we have a tie breaker? OR with no time to compare notes, does she pick the wrong CG man to vote for, leaving a Helen 2, Clay 1 and Brian 1 vote? Regardless, it looks like Helen goes here, and Jan makes the F3 with Brian and Clay. If the F3 IC is the physical one we've seen in the preview, then I don't think Jan stands a chance in hell of winning it, no matter how many times she cries "Hallelujah!". Either Clay wins and takes Brian, or Brian wins and takes Clay. Either way, bye-bye Granny Janny. So how will the vote go down? Well, what's been the overreaching story arc of the season? That there is no alliance. Every one of the Chewies has been in it for his or herself. Brian had deals with Ted, Helen and Clay. Clay had deals with everyone short of Magilla. Ted had deals with Brian and maybe Helen and Jan. Helen had deals with Brian and maybe Ted and Jan. Everyone was playing everyone, and everyone knew it. This season has been Survivor: The Grifters. In the end, Brian will win easily. Per Ted's comments this morning on the Early Show, it was a pretty universal belief within CG that Clay was along for the ride. Brian gets ALL of their votes. As for the Sookies? Brian will get Jake and Ken's votes for sure. I'm pretty sure that Jake and Penny compared notes at the LL, and Penny now knows of Clay's lies. Whether that outweighs her fondness for him, who knows? I don't think we can read much into Clay going to her wedding though. I'd be willing to bet that Penny invited the whole cast (at least all of those she had personal contact with), but only those who lived the closest to her actually made the trip. So Penny's vote is up in the air (though I think she'll lean toward Clay). I think Erin votes Clay as well. To sum up: Jan wins F4 IC; Helen goes. Brian or Clay wins F3 IC; Jan goes. Brian wins over Clay (5-2, or 6-1). It's only fitting that the most boring edition of this series have the most boring ending. Fester **Edit: Ooops. Looks like I spoke too soon. Had to completely rework this per the TDT spec.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-13-02, 11:12 AM (EST) 14. "TDT agrees with Sleeeve" TDT's early speculation about how the final four plays out: http://www.truedorktimes.com/s5/spoilers/ Can't argue with the internet's best spoilers! Oh, and check out the picture on Snewser's home page: ROFL! http://www.survivornews.net/   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 12-13-02, 02:03 PM (EST) 18. "What did we learn from S1" I was thinking about some Survivor history, and this is the first true "pagonging" since S1. S2 had picked off Jerri and Amber before F5, S3 picked off Kelly and almost lost their numerical advantage, and S4 had the flip-flop combo tribe that had only spent their post-merge time together. So what happened in S1? Rich and Rudy - tighter alliance than Brian and Clay Susan and Kelly - girl power alliance, not really tight, kind of like Jan and Helen What did Kelly do wrong? She betrayed her alliance with Susan. We all know they'd have voted off Kelly had she not won immunity, but when she did, Sue had to vote for either Rich or Rudy. She had to pull Kelly in to survive. Rich and Rudy weren't going to vote for one another, as it would betray the alliance as well as lose a jury vote. So they had no choice but to vote for Susan. Kelly had the swing vote, and it put her in the driver's seat. They ended up in a 2-2 tie. Had they known how the tie breaker would go, then Rich would have been voted out on prior votes. But she didn't know (and no one really knows as of yet), and she switched. Her betrayal cost her Sue's vote as well as that of the remaining Tagi alliance. She got Pagong's vote because they hated how Rich managed to get them voted out, but Greg cast the deciding vote for Rich. Greg was an outsider on Pagong, which is slightly different from SookJai. Back to S5: We can see from the vidcap that Brian gets the F4 immunity. Helen hates Clay, and Clay hates Helen. There is tension, and they would both love to vote for the other. Helen has some degree of alliance w/Jan, but, as Jan said, no one has said the word "alliance." Since Brian has F4 immunity, he has to vote for Clay, Jan, or Helen. Clay has to vote for Jan or Helen. Jan has to vote for Clay or Helen. Helen has to vote for Jan or Clay. From a numerical perspective, Brian has to power to tie a vote or to vote with the majority. He doesn't have the throwaway vote, because that can only come from bootee at this vote. Therefore, Brian (or any F4 immunity winner) is in the driver's seat with the controlling vote. Brian has already indicated that Jan is disposable, so that makes her boot more likely. Helen is a serious challenge threat, so she is also vulnerable. If Jan and Helen vote as a block for Clay, then Brian has to vote for whoever Clay votes for to keep him alive. If he doesn't, then there is a 2-1-1 vote, and Clay is voted off. This would be a clever way for Brian to get rid of Clay, but I don't foresee it. We don't have any evidence of the F3 IC, but it is definitely 2 of one sex and 1 of the other. Brian is definitely around, and he enjoys the comraderie of Clay more than the two older women, so he will vote with Clay to vote off one of the girls. Now we have been told that by EPM that the final challenge would be a serious physical challenge. That favors Brian because of his strength, but it also favors Helen since she has participated in 2 winning rewards. A family visit to keep her spirits up, as well as a spa retreat, complete with food, a shower, and a massage. She is in a STRONG physical position right now. Based on her strength, it would be wise to boot her at F4. Putting Jan against either of the guys in such a physical challenge almost guarantees that one of the men will win F3 IC and take the other into F2, thus creating the first final male F2. Based on this, here is my F4 PTTE: 13a - IC Brian - bootee Helen 13b - IC Brian or Clay - bootee Jan 13c - Brian over Clay 7-0   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 02:11 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Final Four Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 12-16-02 AT 01:45 PM (EST) **Edited to revise my original spec, which was: Jan wins F4 IC, so Helen goes first, then Brian wins F3 IC, and Jan goes, with Brian winning the jury vote over Clay. I still suspect Helen will go first, but I don't think Jan has to win the F4 IC for this to happen. For now, I'm just speculating that Helen does NOT win the F4 IC. IMO, Brian wants to win the F3 IC himself to ensure his F2 status. He won't throw it so as not to look like a backstabber -- he doesn't think in those terms -- so he may opt to eliminate the stronger player, Helen, at F4. And Clay presumably would want to maximize his own chances to win the F3 IC, and would support booting Helen. For the first time I think the Final IC winner will win the game. And I don't think it will be a close jury vote. I agree with Fester that Clay will get at best two votes from Penny and Erin, but more likely one or none, IMO.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 02:30 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Final Four Speculation" sleeeve, I think your reasoning is very sound, as usual. There are really only two variations I can see in any case. Jan or Helen can go in 4 and 3. As you and Survivin Dawg point out, immunity alone decides this variation. Then Clay/Brian, Brian wins. Last night, before I'd seen any vidcaps, I tentatively said Jan then Helen, which is the natural order, barring immunity. I was definitely influenced by my wish to see Helen finish as well as possible, I admit. However, now I've seen TDT's vidcaps, he appears to have flashes of Jan in the F3 challenge, which would mean Jan, ala MamaKim, won Fallen Comrades and, as in S3, the person who was supposed to be 3rd (Helen/Tom) came in 4th. (I go with the theory that Brian has the necklace on because the IC takes place at TC and he hasn't yet given it back to Jeff.) As to my comment about a straightforward story arc, Jan beating Helen doesn't alter that. Like Richard Hatch, Brian has had all the variations worked out in his head. All 3 of the remaining players would take him to the Final 2. The only possible F3 scenario where that wouldn't happen is a Jan/Helen/Brian F3, but he and Clay will make sure one of the women goes in the F4. Since each of the women is trying to get as far as possible and voting in their own interest, there is zip chance of a tie at F4. If Jan is immune, she will join with the 2 men and vote out Helen so as to take her chances in the F3. And same with Helen if she were to win IC. The only mystery MB left prior to last night was that Jan was in Brian's pocket and that there are no "on the life of my son or brother" type alliances in this game. MB left it open and had sprinkled some misdirection around that Jan might be with Ted. So last week we learned that Helen was really loyal to Brian, last night we learned Jan's respect is for Brian, and the straightforward story is that Brian pulled off the strategy he came with--pissing off no one, being everyone's apparent friend, and earning the team's respect as a strong competitor without being voted off as a threat. That's quite an accomplishment. He deserves to win and he will. "If we knew today what we knew yesterday, we couldn't give it away"--Aimee Mann   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-02, 02:40 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Final Four Speculation" Since each of the women is trying to get as far as possible and voting in their own interest, there is zip chance of a tie at F4. And adding to this: Remember Ghandia's comment about drawing a rock from a bag. The players have the idea that a tiebreaker could be like Pappy getting stoned, so I agree with OFG here that they will probably avoid creating a tie vote. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-02, 01:12 AM (EST) 25. "RE: Final Four Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 12-14-02 AT 01:16 AM (EST) Call me a sucker, but I'm gonna stick with the prediction I made after Ep 1 or 2 and say Helen wins. Why? Because I really just cannot understand Helen's not voting for Clay if she and Brian REALLY didn't have a super-strong bond. Basically everyone agrees that for Helen to leave at F4, Jan would have to win IC. (Which, despite the vidcap, I am still among those that will not rule it out) Brian would not risk betraying Helen, especially with Ted (and to a lesser extent the SJs watching), and Helen WOULD feel betrayed if she felt strongly enough about an alliance with Brian that she didn't try and take out Clay. I think that could outweigh any dislike of Clay enough to not gie Brian the million. Ted, seeing another betrayal of someone who thought Brian was with them could very well vote against him too. Clay also did his best to secure a vote from Penny. That means only one of Jan, Jake, Erin, or Ken would have to vote FOR Clay on the jury for Brian to lose. No, voting out Helen is too risky for Brian, and I think he realizes this. The ONLY safe way to get rid of Helen, even WITH a Jan F4 IC win is in the F3 with Clay winning immunity if Brian HeyDicque pulls a Richard Hatch. I also will not rule out the girls forcing a tie (though I will concede that it is unlikely) so I do not know that Helen would go 3-1 even should Jan win F4 IC. If Brian votes out Clay, he alienates no one but Clay. This is not true about Helen, IMHO, as I've said above. Still, he would rather not vote out Clay OR Helen, and the only way to do that is if Jan goes F4. But if it came down to it I think he would vote out Clay over Helen, even if he is a more attractive finals opponent, because the backlash of a Helen betrayal could prove too great. Some of us (I think, I did at least) specualted on a Helen-Brian alliance early on, and I still think it holds. My opinion is that MB has tried to misdirect us away from that alliance, but like Colby-Tina, they will make the final 2. And like Colby, I think Brian will win the Final IC, and shockingly pick his secret alliance-mate, Helen rather than Clay (or possibly Jan), and continue the curse of the F3 IC winner, losing to Helen in a 4-3 vote (and ironically perhaps because the lesser of two evils, the Clay boot, bites him in the ass). I know that probably seems a bit muddled, but oh well. This season has played out so far like S1, but it will finish like S2. Just my 2 cents. SO a quick recap: F4- BRIAN wins IC and JAN (or, less likely, Clay) goes OR JAN wins IC and CLAY goes F3- BRIAN wins IC and takes HELEN to the finals F2- HELEN wins over Brian in a 4-3 vote, getting the votes of PENNY, ERIN, JAN, and TED, while JAKE, CLAY, and KEN vote for Brian. I know I'm flying in the face of very many spoilers I respect greatly here, as well as TDT and Snewser, but I'm gonna ride my GUT out, even if its getting a little queasy about its pick And for why TDT could be "wrong" -- couldn't this spoiler be a plant by MB? Could the information indeed be that Clay and Brian are the last 2, maybe not the FINAL 2, but the last 2 VOTED out (ie, they finish 2nd and 3rd or 3rd and 4th instead of 1st and 2nd)? Or, couldn't the spoiler just be wrong, no matter how certain TDT is of it? Maybe none of these scenarios is likely, but I think they are at least POSSIBLE. Yes, I believe that they sincerely believe they are right, but I won't disregard the chance (however slim) that they are sincerely wrong. Flame away, I realize I'm very likely wrong, but I'm always one to be uneasy with the obvious answer. edit: also, I think CBS would do everything possible to keep the report of Brian getting beaten up by his wife from leaking out NOW of all times if he had won.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-02, 01:52 PM (EST) 28. "I agree I AM HE" It just seems tooooo cozy that the F2 were let loose to TDT and everyone is just taking it at face value. We don't know if a tiebreaker goes back to prior votes. I don't think the Purple rock thing went over well with fans, and if Jan wins immunity, Clay has more prior votes than Helen....I am starting to believe the women are the Final 2 and by the Episode title, the indication is that someone makes a critical mistake that costs them the game. To me, this can ONLY relay to Brian. Could Brian purposely lose the Final IC and then get dumped...I am sure regardless he would have won over Helen or Jan, then Helen wins the game with Granny in 2nd...   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-02, 03:36 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Final Four Speculation" I_AM_HE I agree that CBS would like to not have this out there, although they have already weathered plenty of bad news about contestants (Justin and Chiara of BB come to mind and Colby's prior arrest for drunkenness). >>also, I think CBS would do everything possible to keep the report of Brian getting beaten up by his wife from leaking out NOW of all times if he had won. Well, first, obviously CBS can't retroactively change the winner (decided in July) or anything that's happened to the winner recently, nor can CBS alter or suppress police records and court dates. Although I can't name names, I know how the Smoking Gun got the info on the altercation/arrest and there was NOTHING CBS could do about it. In short, someone heard about it and told someone who alerted the Smoking Gun and it was out in a flash and not a damned thing to do to change it. It's public record, not a rumor, so how do you do damage control on certain hard facts? Lastly, TDT is too smart to swallow a fake Final 2 fed to him by CBS and his source is reliable. Also, Snewser, who correctly broke the F2 to us last season, is not contradicting TDT at this point. I don't get why people are having so much trouble accepting that Brian and Clay are F2. Forget the fact that it seems too obvious, so did Ghandia's boot, as Scribe pointed out. Look at the way the game has gone since this spoiler broke. There was a movement to oust Clay and Brian was confronted about his loyalty and NOTHING HAPPENED to derail their move to the top. Helen and Jan had their chance to change the game and they showed they are not playing the game hard enough to go against Brian. Brian's in control; Brian wants Clay. In the Clay Survivor party in Louisiana, we got a spoiler quote that has proved itself 100% to date (that CG wouldn't go back to TC after the Ghandia boot for quite awhile). At the time, Clay also said the challenges were hard right up to the end and said we'd be surprised at how far he went. I think this was his way of hinting he went the whole distance. "If we knew today what we knew yesterday, we couldn't give it away"--Aimee Mann   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-02, 03:51 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Final Four Speculation" thanks for the response OFG your points about Brian and CC are taken, you are of course right, although I am still surprised that no move was even apparently made by CBS to mitigate the report...still, its not Brian beating up his wife, so the public ire will not be roused so much as its mocking...so, yeah, this argument at best means little, if not nothing. and its not that I don't believe TDT as much as I feel that other options ARE possible. Again, I am very likely wrong, but something about this just bothers me. I had no doubts whatsoever about Ghandia. ABout this I do. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind, or disprove TDT, something I obviously cannot do, as much as I am throwing out other possibilities. And I think the Clay spoiler is more than fufilled. Could it mean he makes the Final 2 or even wins? Absolutely. DOES it mean that? Not necessarily by a long shot. When Clay's statement was made, it looked like CG was on the verge of extinction. I think making it to the final 4 is plenty surprising (perhaps not to the spoiler community, but to the average viewer) and that his comment is not necessarily useful any longer. Even if he is the first booted this week, he will have participated in every challenge save the final, and he can truthfully make such a comment about their difficulty.   Top

steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-14-02, 01:45 PM (EST) 26. "Clay wins" Jan wins the next IC Helen is booted (and pissed off) Clay wins the final IC and takes Brian to the F2 Jan goes to the jury I'm straying from the pack and saying Clay will win Brian is WAY too obvious, and he's starting to really annoy me! Think about it, the fate of the winner lies in the hands of the Sook Jai's, I think they'll give it to Clay.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-14-02, 01:46 PM (EST) 27. "King Brian Wins" I am going for a straightforward ending. Last season's ending didn't work so give us an obvious winner. I think Helen does take 3rd as foreshadowed. 1. Brian 2. Clay 3. Helen 4. Jan   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-02, 04:18 PM (EST) 31. "RE: King Brian Wins" Seeing Jan in that challenge looks like the Indiana Jones-type challenge to me. So I think Helen goes 4th and Jan goes 3rd. Then Brian and Clay are in the final. I think Brian wins it.   Top

NTK 109 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-14-02, 04:41 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Final Four Speculation" The only way I see heated questions at the final tribal council is if Helen is voted off fourth. No matter how it happens, she will feel betrayed. Then she has time to spend at the Lodge comparing Brian's final two alliances, promises, or whatever with Ted. I really don't think the Sookies have a real beef with Clay or Brian. They may not like Clay, and he did try to mislead them, but it isn't on the betrayal level. I actually could see Brian simmering with rage, but I belive TDT's Final 2 and do not think that Brian will be a jury member. I think Ted is not a simmering with rage kind of guy, but he is an emotional guy. If he and Helen compare perceived promises, he may ask some very pointed questions. I thought all of Ted's early show interview was carefully worded. He glossed over Ghandia. He may also have glossed over Brian. So backing into this, if Jan goes fourth and Brian manages to get rid of Helen gracefully, then he has a promising chance. But, if Brian dumps Helen and she and Ted spend some quality time together, then Clay may be the luckiest guy in the world. I suspect Brian is not as slick as he thinks. I am also amused by the Slip Through Your Fingers title. Is it only referring to the challenge or Brian's chances? My guess is Helen, Jan, Brian, and Clay the winner.   Top

bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-02, 05:15 PM (EST) 33. "RE: Final Four Speculation" NTK, I agree with your scenario, and I too was struck by the possibility that the title might refer to Brian's shot at winning. Steppingrazor also brought up some good points to support a Clay victory. The editing of Brian seems a bit over-the top lately, and could certainly be seen as setting him up for the ultimate fall. I think that it's possible that Erin, Penny, Ken, and either Helen/Ted give Clay a 4-3 victory.   Top

BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-14-02, 06:03 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Final Four Speculation" Pretty much the same as what we have heard but i will give my input none the less. FINAL FOUR: IC- Jan in ?'s about Jury TC- Helen: Brian, Clay, and Jan all vote for Helen. Helen votes for Clay FINAL THREE: IC- Clay in some challenge that involves physical endurance. TC- Jan, duh. Clay obviously votes for Jan FINAL TWO: 2nd place- Clay - Jake and Jan vote for Clay 1st place- Brian - Penny ;) , Ken, Ted, Erin, Helen vote for Brian. The Reality Show Queens!! BaQuAr13   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-02, 06:01 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Final Four Speculation" At this point I'm not 100 percent sure who will win. One of the problems I have with spoiling is that sometimes I let what I want to see happen interfere with what will happen (a la Vee's win in S4). In any event, here are my thoughts: Editing Jan: Edited as being loopy and not all together. However, Jan has shown some moments of being on top of her game. She had Ted and Helen believing she was napping while they were whispering in Ep. 12, and she also made the comment about keeping friends close and enemies closer. I think that she's probably the only one left who really knows where Brian's head is. She also has people believing she is there to make the jury, when she's really there to win the money. Also keep in mind that Jan, just like Mama Kim, would have been the next to go had CG gone back to TC. Funny how Jan's funerals were for animals who met an early demise, but she seems to be the cat with nine lives. Helen: Edited as a loyal follower. She absolutely will not betray Brian, but he'll have no problem betraying her. Clay: Edited as the person you love to hate. No one really cares for him and he's being kept as the "go against guy." But will Clay actually win the darn thing. King Brian: Edited as the one in control. He's pretty much beign shoved down our throats as in control of everything and probably the winner. Was his name written on the check, but in disappearing ink? In our previews for Ep. 13, we clearly are given Brian wearing the IN. But I agree with the others who have said this is before the IC. What I think happens is that they come to the Final Four IC, sit down and talk for a minute. Then before the challenge, the jury comes in (we see the frame with Ted being the last to sit down). Jeff then asks for the IN back and we proceed with the challenge. Jan wins the Final Four IC, which really makes it interesting (for once). The previews promise someone feeling betrayed and something slipping through someone's fingers. Remember Brian has been in control up until now and has had his plan for getting rid of the others. I see Brian or Helen going first. I do not think there will be a tie. I think if prior votes decided it, Jeff would have been reading all of the votes at TC, which he hasn't. (There's a first time for everything, right.) That means someone will go out 3 to 1. Who has had everyone in his hand up until now, including what he thinks is the victory and who would feel most betrayed by a boot at this point? Brian. Although Helen is running a close second. And here is where what I want to happen will interfere. I think there will be one of 2 outcomes: Final Four IC: Jan wins Final Four Bootee: Brian Final Three IC: Clay Final Three Bootee: Jan Winner: Helen Final Four IC: Jan wins Final Four Bootee: Helen Final Three IC: Clay Final Three Bootee: Jan Winner: Clay Either way, Brian thinks he's God ( He's got the whole world in his hands . . . and it slips through his fingers. Don't worry, I'm sure something will happen this week to change my mind yet again.   Top

LithLady 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-16-02, 09:59 AM (EST) 37. "RE: Final Four Speculation" Can someone help me with a question? I know I've read about this sometime/somewhere but can't remember. How much is the jury allowed to talk amongst themselves? Can they tell each other what happened - who caused their boot etc? Seems I remember that they couldn't and this could certainly change how the jury sees the remaining players. Thanks.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-16-02, 10:14 AM (EST) 38. "RE: Final Four Speculation" And the countdown begins! Slip through your fingers is interesting yet I'm inclined to believe this has to do with the challenge although I am sure MB wants the audience to believe it has to do with the winner (which it very could) Considering an Indiana Jones type final challenge, this could refer to anything in that type of challeng. It could also refer to one of the Survivors or Jeff's comments (i.e. Jeff: Well there are three of you left, anything could happen, yada yada yada, don't let this slip through your fingers) (i.e. Brian: I'm at the final three, this is the bottom line and to get all this way I'm not going to let it slip through my fingers) You get my point. In any event, considering I have not yet heard Jan say Hallelujah I'm in agreement she wins the IC leading to Helen being booted but I would like to see a final four tie which could ALSO refer to Slip Through..... perhaps this is a "tie breaker" type challenge we have yet to see (my thoughts on Purple Rock are not positive and I would hope MB doesn't use it) In any event, Jan/Clay/Brian as a final three with a physical challenge I can't, IMO, see Brian pulling a Hatch. At this point, I would secure the IC which IMO he has the best odds of winning. Okay so he boots Jan and people/jury go OMG, now the jury is going to be mad. Quite frankly, if these people took the time and effort to get on this show and know what this show is about, it is inconceivable to me that they, in the same position, wouldn't boot Jan the nicest woman on the planet, not to mention, I think Jan will probably be the most objective voter on that jury. Clay and Brian as the final two, despite TDT's information, does not surprise me in the least. "Diamond in the rough" Remarks of the little guy who was picked last. "This is a business" Don't judge a book by its cover (his cover of the trustworthy, helpful player and underneath the conniving, non emotion/loyalty) The mentality of the jury - Sucky's do not have personal vendetta motive or should not. For any of them to believe that a Chewy would keep them over one of their own is a delusion. So you have to wonder if they pick on the deserve factor as playing the game or deserve fact as a person who needs the money more or the deserve factor as the person who didn't betray any Chewys. Jake I believe had a respect for Brian as a player Erinn I believe leans towards the "nicer" type (which is a toss up) I see a Clay vote Penny I believe or should think would pick based on game playing (she did jerk over her loyal ally Jake)- Brian Ken - Mr. Machismo would probably vote the most on emotion and I recall his saying to Jake about Brian selling lemons as well as his facial expressions at Brian. Call it testerone envy or what have you, I lean more towards a Clay vote here especially if Brian displays a too confident attitude. Even if Clay displays that, someone like Ken, IMO would rather see the "geeky" guy who is acting cocky take it over the "machoey" type guy acting cocky. (Go to a gym, you'll know what I mean The Chewy Gang are the ones whose emotions may take over Jan - will be least likely to vote with her emotions. And I think she will reward the person who merits the win more aka Brian Helen - betrayed by her leader Brian vs. Clay does not deserve this. Interesting vote of emotion. IMO, Helen does not seem to be a woman scorned type, I give her more credit than that of a Kelly of Africa, Sue of S1 type. She is in the military, merit is big with her. I say Brian Ted however is a big pickle for me. Betrayed by his friend vs. slimy Clay (a spot where he should be not Clay) Ted, IMO would be ruled more by emotion than any woman on that jury (yes it is sexist by I am female so I tend to believe women do react more emotionally with certain things) I also see Ted being someone who would change his mind in a New York Minute if B or C said the wrong thing at the final jury talk. If Brian is smart enough to appeal to Ted's fractured ego, he'll get Brian's vote. If Brian's business attitude takes over without any type of regret, Ted may give Clay the vote out of spite. Still inclined to see a Brian win either 5-2, 4-3 or potentially unanimous.   Top

frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-16-02, 12:00 PM (EST) 39. "J/H/C/B" 4th place Jan - I believe the halejula is the only piece of misdirection MB has left to squeeze out of the last really predicatable boot. 3rd place Helen - per Jake's comment that he's rooting for her, we know she doesn't make the final two. 2nd place Clay - he's being edited as the bad guy. Although some of the jurors have said they like Clay, and Jake said Clay was playing the game "extremely well," the common viewer HATES Clay. He could win, but I think MB is showing the bad, lazy side of Clay rather than the funny side for a reason. Winner Brian - I don't particularly like Brian, I don't think he's an honest guy, and I don't think he plays the game with integrity. So what? The goal is to be the last (wo)man standing, and he has played a remarkably strategic game. He deserves the win. I have come to believe, however, that the endgame will play out differently from the way Brian seemed to describe it last episode. I think Brian will try to get the immunities right down to the last IC. He'll do what he has to do to ensure that he ends up in the finals with Clay. I don't think he'll want to give the jury the impression that someone else "took him along" to the finals. He'll want the jury to see him as a playa.   Top

pancho 82 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-17-02, 04:43 PM (EST) 46. "RE: J/H/C/B" J/H/C/B I agree with frisky as to the finish order. What happened to occam's razor? I do not think that they are at tribal council before a fallen comrades IC. These three look tense and Jan looks like she is dressed for TC, not an IC. I can't see a headband on her where she seems to have been wearing it for ICs. Got to be the first TC of the show after the IC. I picked Clay to win the IC last week because I just could not see how he could hang around with the others hating him. Obviously I underestimated the power of Brian. This week I tried to think more like him. (ick). I think that he will win the first IC to make sure that Jan does not and she can be booted fourth. There is no way that Jan can win a physical IC unless the others are tied to a tree. She is probably saying hallelujah because she was able to climb up and over something without hurting herself. Clay will win the final IC and take Brian. I think that Clay did too much dirty work with the SJ’s to get their votes. Brian will win. pancho   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-17-02, 04:12 AM (EST) 40. "Vidcap Misdirection" Sleeve: I'm with you all the way! The vidcap misdirection also reinforces the excellent points you've made... As Bungler has already pointed out, there are very few new vidcaps included in this weeks promo. Those from previous weeks are probably included for misdirection… Misdirection: Brian wins the F4 IC and is shown wearing the IN at TC. Analysis: The F4 IC is the traditional Fallen Comrades, which takes place at TC, and (as Sleeve has pointed out) JP has not yet reclaimed the IN. Conclusion: Brian does not win the F4 IC. Misdirection: Helen and Clay competing in the “Indiana Jones” F3 challenge. Clay jumping up in victory! Analysis: Both of these vidcaps are from previous episodes. Clay jumping up victorious is after his EP9 IC victory. Conclusion: Helen does not compete in F3 Challenge and Clay does not win the F3 Challenge. Misdirection: Jan calls out “halleluja!!” victorious during the F3 Challenge. Analysis: As TDT, Bungler and others have pointed out, this is one of the few new vidcaps actually from the EP13 Finale. Since we know (thanks to TDT) that Brian and Clay compete in the F3 IC and we have this vidcap of Jan in the F3 IC, we can conclude that Helen was the F4 boot. Conclusion: Jan’s “halleluja” is probably an expression of relief after finally completing a particularly frustrating part of the challenge…Jan does not win the F3 challenge. Misdirection: Vidcaps of the Final 3 or Final 2 ? Analysis: The image of Jan, Brian, and Helen are taken from a much earlier TC, and intended to confuse the general viewing audience. Conclusion: As we know, these are not the Final 2 or Final 3. Summary: Since we have new vidcaps showing Jan competing in the F3 IC and we know Brian and Clay are safe we can conclude that Helen goes first at F4. This would only happen if the pecking order,( which Brian laid out so clearly for us last episode), was disrupted by Jan winning immunity. Jan finally wins immunity (as foreshadowed by her comments last episode). We know that Clay or Brian must win the F3 IC and we have vidcap misdirection that Jan or Clay win, so we can conclude that Brian wins the “Indiana Jones” challenge and takes “the enemy” he’s held closer than his “friend” Jan. Brian wins the jury vote, many of whom are surprised that the Brian they thought they knew in the game, was much different than the Brian they saw on TV. Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-17-02, 04:28 AM (EST) 41. "RE: Vidcap Misdirection" Krautboy, A most perfect analysis, truly stellar amongst a season in which you made great, great posts. What you say makes perfect sense. I am resisting having Jan win F4 FC IC, but I know in my heart it's because I think it's a boring outcome, and I should not let that influence me. "If we knew today what we knew yesterday, we couldn't give it away"--Aimee Mann   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-17-02, 10:09 AM (EST) 42. "RE: Vidcap Misdirection" Like you OFG, I agree with almost everything Krautboy has said, though I'm still a bit hesitant on the Jan IC win. As best I can tell, TDT (and everyone else's logic) for this is based on three main points (sometimes left unstated) 1. Jan's "I've never won an immunity challenge" comment 2. There will be a "Fallen Comrades" type challenge 3. The Brian IC necklace pic is in there to throw us off. I think there are problems with all three points. 1. Jan's comment was made in the midst of Helen's conversation with her about voting off Clay. This clip had to be shown to misdirect the audience into thinking H/J/T might form an alliance and hide the inevitable Ted boot. Jan also makes some comment about "Keep your friends close and enemies closer" which also made no sense to me. The fact is that Jan says a lot of things that make no sense and we shouldn't read too much into it. 2. Though I moan about the "all new challenges" label all the time, I think MB can technically say he's stuck to it. Therefore I think we can safely assume that FC, at least as it was done in the first 4 versions, will NOT appear. There could be some mental challenge at F4, but not necessarily. This version MB has strongly favored "combo" type challenges requiring both mental and physical effort rather than a simple "answer questions" or "stand on a pole." There is no reason that both the F4 and F3 challenges will not be similar, and no reason Brian could not win both . 3. Why does the Brian necklace shot have to be misdirection? I think we have a Hollow going on here. Brian told us the boot order: Jan, Helen, Clay. And as I've written before, this is the same boot order, Jake relayed to Helen three episodes ago. What do casual fans and spoilers alike assume? Any possible boot order but that. So they will chuckle and be surprised when Brian's grand plan comes to pass. So my current picks are Ep 13a IC: Brian Boot: Jan Ep 13b IC: Brian Boot: Helen Winner: Brian, but closer than we expect...probably 5-2 or 4-3.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-17-02, 11:24 AM (EST) 45. ""Enemies Closer"" GuessitRains: I think Jan was referring to Brian. She said "he likes to keep his friends close and his enemies closer". This is foreshadowing the eventual selection of Clay over Jan (or Helen. We have the benefit of knowing who the final two are going to be as we analyze the editing... Krautboy   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-17-02, 11:14 AM (EST) 44. "RE: Vidcap Misdirection" Outfrontgirl and GuessItRains: Excellent point-counterpoint! That's what has made the spoiling here so good this season. Sharp minds working together! (uh-oh starting to get sentimental as the season comes to an end!) I agree with both of you that the alternate scenario you have laid out is just as logical and just as likely. As GuessitRains points out, it's purely a matter of which assumptions you make and how you read the clues... I think we've isolated the two best scenarios. Unless we get more clues, it's probably just time to follow your gut. Krautboy   Top

Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-17-02, 11:06 AM (EST) 43. "RE: Final Four Speculation" Here's mine, for what its worth 1st IC: Jan 1st Boot: Helen 2nd IC: Brian 2nd Boot: Jan Final vote: Erin- Clay Ken- Brian Penny- Clay Jake- Clay (toss up, but I can see him going with the TX connection) Ted- Brian (He finally finds out that Clay told the SJs to vote for him) Helen- Brian, she just can't vote for Clay. Jan- Clay. Ticked at Brian for not taking her with him, they had an alliance (just like everyone else, I know). The comment from Ep 12- "I could be the swing vote." comes into play. Your winner: Clay, 4-3. The Chamber of Secrets Has Been Opened. Enemies of the Heir... Beware!   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-17-02, 06:50 PM (EST) 47. "RE: Final Four Speculation" I'm becoming more convinced that Brian will not win also Draco, whether it be Helen or Clay he faces in the final 2. I think Jake will vote for Brian and either (or both) Helen and Ted will vote Clay though, should the final 2 be Brian/Clay   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-17-02, 07:52 PM (EST) 48. "RE: Final Four Speculation" Everyone's speculation based on the herring caps is very sound. I have only one question regarding the speculation of the caps that Jan wins the final 4 IC. The cap shows Jan, Clay, Helen and Brian with Brian wearing the IN leading speculation that it is misleading us to a Brian win and that, in fact, this is just prior to the IC of Fallen Comrades as this is how it usually happens. My question or problem is this and those who can recall will be able to help. The 4 of them are not seated in a row which is how the Fallen Comrades (I believe is done) so if this is prior to Jeff taking the necklace back does he take it back and then say Okay, everyone now sit in a row??? Seems a little sloppy IMO. But, help me here does Jeff 1. reseat them and/or 2. does FC happen and they are not seated in a row? That is my only problem with the cap and that Brian wearing the necklace is PRIOR to the Final 4 challenge.   Top

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