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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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This week's "prediction logic" is brought to you courtesy Krautboy:

GAMEPLAY LOGIC

This week the Chuay Gahn must finally vote off one of their own. Their loyalties and alliances will finally be tested as lines are drawn in the sand…

“JP: The former Chuay Gahn's turn on each other.
TED: Those that I've trusted, I'm going to continue to trust. But I'm not going to base the results of this game on that trust.”

Ted trusts Jan and Brian, with whom he’s had separate alliances since early on in the game, but he realizes that it is time to take matters into his own hands. His former ally Clay now stands in his way…

"Feeling rebuffed by a former ally, one Survivor hatches a plan and enlists the support of unlikely new allies."

Ted approaches Helen with his plan to get rid of Clay, as we see Ted scratch the “BHT/J” in the sand. Helen looks on with interest…

Helen realizes that she is the swing vote…Brian/Clay on one side and Ted/Jan on the other. Ted is targeting Clay, while Clay has Brian’s ear and wants to be rid of Ted. And both alliances need Helen to pull it off…

“{Helen} I am definitely playing both sides of the fence…”

As Helen's husband said, "She didn't come her to end up in third place". Helen obviously knows where she stands in the “pecking order”. Jake laid it out for her back in EP10. Now she is trying to figure out if she has better odds in the F3 with Ted and Jan or Brian and Clay.

IMMUNITY WINNER

Immunity is the Key to spoiling this week.
The CBS Website poll asks, “Who is more desperate for immunity, Helen, Clay or Brian?
The CBS Website also asks, “Who’s next? 56% think Clay is next!

CBS is focusing on Immunity because it will be an important element in this weeks show. Last week Helen was shown plotting against Clay, while remaining loyal to Brian. Ted is loyal to Brian, and Jan is loyal to Ted. This week Ted is also shown plotting against Clay.

“Who is most desperate for immunity?” Obviously Clay. If anyone other than Clay wins, Clay is gone. But thanks to TDT, we know that Clay survives, so he must win Immunity!

The CBS website is preparing the general audience, that expects Clay to go this week, for a dramatic Immunity Challenge. After Clay wins, he can sit back and watch the circus…”Here we go again, the circus is coming”

BOOTEE LOGIC

Once Clay is protected by immunity, Brian will get nervous and negotiate to collect a debt of gratitude from Helen…

At the end of this past episode, Brian, Helen and Clay all underlined their vote for Jake. They were either checking Ted’s loyalty or signaling each other. Regardless Helen decided to vote with Brian and Clay.

Helen expressed to her husband the loyalty she feels toward Brian. Brian is aware of this and will call in his markers. As Brian points out in the previews: “She owes me.” A comment that indicates Brian needs Helen this week. Brian will not get rid of Helen until she has paid her debt and Helen will ultimately continue to vote with Brian and Clay.

So, then we need to answer the question, “Who goes this week, Ted or Jan?”

Ted trusts Jan. Jan is loyal to Ted. They have an alliance, but as Jake explained in his interview, Jan is the only one out there not trying to win the game. Ted has Jan’s vote in his back pocket. Ted is a potential threat to Brian; Jan is not. Ted is a Challenge threat; Jan is not. Ted is trying to take control of the game; Jan is not. Ted is the target this week; Jan is not.

With Ted gone, Jan will just wait quietly for her turn next, happy to have made the F4.

The editing is setting up a Ted vs. Clay storyline this week. Since we know Clay survives, Clay either wins immunity or Helen sticks with Brian, because “she owes him”…Clay has organized votes against Ted before and he won’t hesitate to do it again, given the chance.

As far as Ted’s plans for “BHT/J”…strategies revealed do not succeed.

The tides turn and Ted joins the jury…

REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER LOGIC

“Having won a Reward Challenge, a tribe member becomes overly excited, shouting and rolling on the ground, while others stew bitterly in their loss.”

Clay will stew bitterly, when Ted wins the RC…just more fuel for the Ted vs. Clay storyline, and just one more reason for him to go this week.

PREDICTION RECAP

To recap... that's:

IMMUNITY WINNER: Clay
REWARD WINNER: Ted
BOOTEE: Ted (...with Clay a distant alternate selection)

-SB