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"The final 3 and why"
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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 01:06 PM (EST)
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"The final 3 and why"
As for my last post, it was no insider information that led me to say the relatives stayed around for the IC I just felt, with this seasons editing, what would be the logical thing to happen next.

Here are my final 3 and why.

1) What has the final immunity challenge been?

2) How can Brian most assure that Clay will be in the finals with him?

3) Does Brian have the control that it appears that he has?

Starting with #3 first. Does Brian have the control that it appears that he has? I say yes and here is why. When they had the snuff IC what did Jan do? Looked at Brian and he told her who to snuff. Jan for Brian. We know that Helen trusts him completely by her comments last week. We know that Clay and Brian have a final 2 pact. We have seen it discussed over and over that Ted and Brian have a final 2 pact.

So does Brian have the control that it appears, yes. Even if Helen and Ted defect I do not think they can take Jan. Jan will vote with Brian to oust Helen. Why Helen, she will not for for Ted and we will discuss why Brian wants Helen out next.

Now 1 and 2 combined. The final challenge has usually been an endurance challenge. Stand on a 2 logs with your hand on an idol (or something similar) and do not let yourself fall. Who wins this? (To all the women out there, sorry for the next sexist remark) Woman. They have much better concentration of the fine details than men do. So, if a woman makes the finals she will win the challenge. Thus, if Jan or Helen make the final 3 they are in the final 2. Not good for Brian. He needs Clay to be in the finals with to have the best shot at the Million.

So, that means that the woman have to go the next 2 rounds. Helen first, then Jan. Brian will convince Ted to vote out Jan because of the final 2 pact they have. Then, when the final IC comes around Brian, just like Rich in the first Survivor, will throw the challenge and let Clay win. Brian believes that Clay will have better concentration than Ted and will win the IC. Then when Clay takes him along (he has a final 2 pact with Clay)he has the million. He will have Ted's vote because it was Clay that was booted out Ted.

So, go ahead, throw any stones or comments at it. I'll go back into hiding.

Boot Ed

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: The final 3 and why lizzmac 12-09-02 1
 RE: The final 3 and why Brownroach 12-09-02 2
 RE: The final 3 and why frisky 12-09-02 3
 RE: The final 3 and why FesterFan1 12-09-02 4
   RE: The final 3 and why Booted 12-09-02 5
       Helen v. Clay FesterFan1 12-09-02 8
           RE: Helen v. Clay Brownroach 12-09-02 10
               RE: Helen v. Clay FesterFan1 12-09-02 12
                   RE: Helen v. Clay Brownroach 12-09-02 14
                   RE: Helen v. Clay lizzmac 12-09-02 15
               RE: Helen v. Clay bebekid 12-09-02 13
           RE: Helen v. Clay bebekid 12-09-02 11
   RE: The final 3 and why Brownroach 12-09-02 6
   RE: The final 3 and why zzz 12-09-02 7
       RE: The final 3 and why bebekid 12-09-02 9
   Why does F3 IC favor women? SuperClyde 12-09-02 16
       great post superclyde big idiot 12-09-02 17
       RE: Why does F3 IC favor women? phonarr 12-10-02 18
 RE: The final 3 and why BaquaR13 12-10-02 19
 RE: The final 3 and why samboohoo 12-10-02 20

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lizzmac 131 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 01:12 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: The final 3 and why"
Not throwing any stones here, Ed - I came to the exact same conclusion (although without the "women have better concentration" bit ;)). I think even if Jan made it to F3 (via an IC win in F4), she wouldn't outlast Clay....

Lizzmac

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 01:44 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: The final 3 and why"
No stones from me either, Booted, I agree Jan and Helen are the next two to go, putting Ted in the Final 3.

Haven't yet made up my mind whether Jan goes first or Helen, though. Right now I'm leaning more toward Helen because the previews play up some tension between her and Brian, right after we heard how much she trusts him last week. But immunity could throw a monkey-wrench into the works.

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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:15 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: The final 3 and why"
Ed, I agree with you completely. I don't think Helen's husband's comment about her not wanting to come in third foreshadows anything. I think her insistence on trusting Brian does foreshadow his betrayal of her.

I think of the two women, Helen will go first. Jan is expendible to Brian. She's just "there" and he can get rid of her whenever he wants (very likely will be prior to final three).

Helen has already given Brian the ammunition he needs. She's winning the comps, and by stirring things up a bit prior to last TC, when she tried to convince Brian to vote against Clay, I'm sure Helen made him very nervous. If she had the audacity to approach the king with suggestions on how to run his kingdom, he must be worried that she's going to approach her fellow peasants.

She's making him nervous, so she's next (barring immunity, of course).

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:20 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: The final 3 and why"
I'm not sure that we can be assured of an all male F3 based on the history of F3 challenges because we have in the write-up for E13 MB telling us that the challenges are different. He talks about it being "like Indiana Jones". Take that for what you will, but I don't think we can assume that it will be the same type of challenge we've had in the past.

We may indeed have a F3 of Ted, Clay, and Brian, but I don't think we can bank on it based on challenge history.

Fester

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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:25 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: The final 3 and why"
Fester you said

"I'm not sure that we can be assured of an all male F3 based on the history of F3 challenges because we have in the write-up for E13 MB telling us that the challenges are different."

He told US that, but did he tell THEM that? I think not. If not, then I think it is safe for Brian to assume that it will happen again.

Boot Ed

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:39 PM (EST)
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8. "Helen v. Clay"
You may be right, but I think she'll go before that for a completely unrelated reason...that she wants Clay to go in the worst way. We know that Brian wants to be sitting next to Clay, and we also know that Helen is now going to try everything to make sure Clay goes ASAP.

She likely goes in E12 (or at the 1st TC of E13), but the thought of the F3 challenge will be merely an ancillary reason to dump her before then, IMO. The real question is, how does he manage it without looking like a complete turncoat? He has F2 deals with Ted, Helen and Clay. Ted and Helen look to be in agreement that Clay should go next. I also think Jan is most likely to lean toward Clay as well. I think this bodes very well for a Clay IC win in E12...but I digress.

Fester

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:49 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Helen v. Clay"
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-02 AT 02:57 PM (EST)

Fester, first of all, I agree with you that the F3 challenge will really be an ancillary reason to dump Helen.

>>how does he manage it without looking like a complete turncoat?<<

By making HER look like the turncoat. We know from the preview that Brian feels that "she owes me" -- it's almost certain he is talking about Helen, not Jan.

If Helen doesn't want to play the game HIS way, Brian can accuse her of treason and banish her from his kingdom on those grounds.


**edited to fix typos

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:59 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Helen v. Clay"
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-02 AT 03:01 PM (EST)

>>how does he manage it without looking like a complete turncoat?<<

By making HER look like the turncoat. We know from the preview that Brian feels that "she owes me" -- it's almost certain he is talking about Helen, not Jan.

If Helen doesn't want to play the game HIS way, Brian can accuse her of treason and banish her from his kingdom on those grounds.

Well, OK. But he doesn't need to justify it to Ted and Jan as much as he needs to do it without Helen turning vindictive. We have to assume that no one outside of Brian and Helen knows of their F2 pact.

As it stands now, Helen would vote for ANYONE over Clay. We saw in E11 how much she can't stand him, and worse that she couldn't live with Clay winning the mil. BUT if Brian throws her under the bus with Clay's head on the chopping block, will she rearrange her hierarchy out of spite? Maybe, maybe not, but Brian's gotta be thinking that that is a possibility.

Perhaps he feels he's got 4 votes sewn up anyway, so Helen feeling betrayed doesn't so much matter to him.


Fester

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 03:27 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Helen v. Clay"
Yeah, Fester, he may not be able to ensure that she won't turn vindictive, and he probably realizes that. But what he *can* do is lay a guilt trip on her and try to make her feel like she brought it on herself. He may even make cryptic comments to this effect at TC, like with Jake.

For what it's worth, I don't think Brian ever considered himself to have an F2 pact with Helen. My theory is that he steered Ted's and Clay's votes away from Helen in Ep 2, and then told Helen that if it were not for his efforts she, not Tanya, would have been toast -- this is what Helen "owes" him for. He probably said something vague like "you're coming with me to the end", which Helen glommed onto as a Final 2 pact, while Brian did not necessarily spell that out.

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lizzmac 131 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 04:49 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Helen v. Clay"
Well, OK. But he doesn't need to justify it to Ted and Jan as much as he needs to do it without Helen turning vindictive. We have to assume that no one outside of Brian and Helen knows of their F2 pact.
--------------------

If he plays it right, though, Helen would never know that he either (a) voted for her or (b) orchestrated her boot - Ted, Clay and Jan have enough votes between them to vote her out. It depends on how observant Helen is and how much Brian can disguise his handwriting

Lizzmac

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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 03:04 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Helen v. Clay"
>If Helen doesn't want to play
>the game HIS way, Brian
>can accuse her of treason
>and banish her from his
>kingdom on those grounds.

That may have been a good reason before the pagonging was complete. Had she wanted to get rid of Clay before all the SJ were gone, then yes, that would have been a justifiable reason. At this point all bets are off. Helen knows Jan and Ted want Clay gone, so why not? It would advance her to the final 4, with the chance for immunity, etc.

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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:57 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Helen v. Clay"
The real question is,
>how does he manage it
>without looking like a complete
>turncoat?

but I digress.

Don't digress, Fester!

I agree that Brian will probably do everything he can to help Clay win the IC. But what if he doesn't? What does he say to Jan and/or Ted to get them to boot Helen?

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:27 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: The final 3 and why"
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-02 AT 02:29 PM (EST)

True, Fester, but I think what BootEd means is that the contestants are probably guessing it will be an endurance challenge similar to most previous Final 3 challenges. Since these have for the most part favored women, the males may think it prudent to boot the women early.

Edited to add:

uh...looks like BootEd cut in front of me and explained it himself.

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:28 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: The final 3 and why"
Fester--

I think the point is that Brian may fear that a challenge--like fallen comrades or endurance--might favor the women and that he would be certain to dump them first. So it is not the nature of the actual challenges that matters in this analysis, but rather the anticipation of the challenges before they are known.

If this is the case--Brian will make sure they boot Hellen and Jan before he has the chance to find out whether such a challenge is used.

If this is his primary concern, Hellen would go first because she is more of a challenge threat than Jan. However, if Brian is also concerned about stabbing allies quicker than he has to, he might cause Jan to go first.

I do think it is basically Brian's decision because everyone in the tribe seems to defer to his judgment at this point.

My gut says Jan first, then Hellen, but I can be convinced otherwise.

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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 02:44 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: The final 3 and why"
>Hellen would go first because
>she is more of a
>challenge threat than Jan.

Tell the above to your gut!

>My gut says Jan first, then
>Hellen, but I can be
>convinced otherwise.

Let's say that Helen and Jan are equal immunity threats. I think Brian wants Clay in the final 2 with him. Who is it that's trying to rally support for a Clay boot (i.e. an overthrow of Brian's kingdom)? Helen. Barring immunity, I think Helen goes this week.

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SuperClyde 87 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 10:49 PM (EST)
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16. "Why does F3 IC favor women?"
Though, regardless of what we say about S3, MamaKim impressed us all, I can't see as the previous Survivors causing the thinking of a Sexist, a Fratterist, and Clay to turn to fear of being up against women in the F3 IC. With three people, you think about the specific individuals:
In S1: A 20 year old active woman beat a fat guy and an old guy in an endurance challenge. With no regard to gender, not many of us were surprised by a Kelly WigglesWin. As a viewer and aspiring contestant, I did not get the message to beware all women in endurance challenges.
In S2: Tina, Keith and Colbster competed in Fallen Comrades, a challenge we speculate as favoring women. This is the only time out of 4 Survivors that Fallen Comrades has been F3. Who won? Colby. This does not send the message, either that women have a natural edge at F3 challenges.
In S4: How many people were shocked that a woman beat a woman and a woman to win the F3 IC? One of them had to.
In S3: Here we saw an impressive display by MamaKim. Why do we take that accomplishment away from her by saying that it's her gender that naturally predisposes her to victory there.

So, in S5, what are these people thinking? I doubt they've internalized this reasoning at all. In fact, I bet their thinking is much like mine would be if I were on that island with those five people: All things being equal (which they aren't, considering alliances formed, loyalties, etc.), who would I be most afraid of assuming an endurance challenge? First, Ted - because he seems strongest. Second, Helen - because she seems second strongest. In fact, I think the three male specimens left haven't shown much "equality of the sexes" in their thinking. I bet they're drastically underestimating the women and would rather be up against them in a challenge.

On the other hand, this might just be wishful thinking, since I'm hoping Jan sweeps the next three ICs and takes it all home.

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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-02, 11:56 PM (EST)
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17. "great post superclyde"
superclyde, I like your homework and analysis - and I share your hope of "superjan", pipedream or not...

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phonarr 29 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-02, 00:24 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Why does F3 IC favor women?"
I am aware that there are many factors involved, but ON AVERAGE, women are predisposed to have an advantage over men in balance/endurance type tasks. Women typically have a lower centre of gravity than men, giving them an advantage, but there are many variables (Lex having diorreah, Kathy's nipples trying to wave to the camera). Also, short man Clay also has a low gravity and may be able to do well at balance/endurance, without Brian making a strategic move to lose the (assumed) chalenge.
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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-02, 01:23 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: The final 3 and why"
I will actually agree with you compeletely. That has been my prediction since after Penny (poor Penny ) was booted.

The Reality Show Queens!!

BaQuAr13

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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-02, 10:25 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: The final 3 and why"
Every time I think I'm going with a theory, someone says something to make me change it. So how about this thought:

We know (or it seems) that Brian really wants to be in the finals with Clay because that's who he thinks he has a better chance against. And I really do believe Brian would throw a final 3 IC so that he could be taken to the finals. (This also fits in with Jiffy's comments about it being beneficial to lose challenges.) But what if everyone else is also starting to think along the lines of wanting to be up against Clay in the finals -- could really make it interesting.

We're looking at a million bucks here. How will morality and ethics play out when it really comes down to it? If I'm in some sort of alliance with Brian but I'm in the final 3 against Brian and Clay, I may boot Brian and take my chances with Clay. Kind of that "I came to win money, not friends (or bananas according to Ghandia)" mentality.

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