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"SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
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Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Original message

SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

12-03-02, 08:13 PM (EST)
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"SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
Hey, Baquar! Yeah, you! I'm talking to you! Read rule #4! I'm taking time out of making fun of Supes and his poor memory specifically to say you've been a bad, bad boy and we've been letting you get away with it for too long! Okay, now that that's out of the way...

The Rules

1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Ghandia. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately.

2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Clay (or Whoever)".

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please.

4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren).

Yeah, that's it. Have fun. And enough with the sig pic in the vote thread already, Baquar!

Criminals From the Neck Up

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Jake bondt007 12-03-02 1
 Jake samiam 12-03-02 2
 Jake IceCat 12-03-02 3
 Brian SherpaDave 12-03-02 4
 Jake bebekid 12-03-02 5
 Jake QueenP 12-03-02 6
 jake evanakm 12-03-02 7
 Clay Kokoro 12-03-02 8
 Ted Spidey 12-03-02 9
 Jake the Snake Roberts bergdogg 12-03-02 10
 Jake Krautboy 12-03-02 11
 Clay ejm92 12-03-02 12
 Clay echogirl 12-03-02 13
 Jake bubbastan 12-03-02 14
 Clay okonkwo 12-03-02 15
 jake erikman 12-03-02 16
 Jake fivestarwheezy 12-03-02 17
   love that Clay specie 12-04-02 65
 Ted corcam 12-03-02 18
 Jan Yogi 12-03-02 19
 Ted toddE 12-04-02 20
 Clay SteffiGurl 12-04-02 21
 Ted cowboyroo 12-04-02 22
 Clay PlaneJane3 12-04-02 23
 CLAY johnthemod 12-04-02 24
 Jake Outfrontgirl 12-04-02 25
 Clay skyisbluu 12-04-02 26
 J-A-K-E BaquaR13 12-04-02 27
 Jake phonarr 12-04-02 28
 JAKE... Thaibeach 12-04-02 29
 Jake SurvivinDawg 12-04-02 30
 Jake Draco Malfoy 12-04-02 31
 Jake weltek 12-04-02 32
 Clay Cin 12-04-02 33
 Jake (idiotic reasoning included) big idiot 12-04-02 34
 Jake Bebo 12-04-02 35
 Vote Tally #1 dabo 12-04-02 36
   Jake wepaxson 12-04-02 37
 Clay samboohoo 12-04-02 38
 Jake Q 12-04-02 39
 Jake lionsroar 12-04-02 40
 Jake strone 12-04-02 41
 Ted ulalame 12-04-02 42
 Jake Brownroach 12-04-02 43
 Jake witenko 12-04-02 44
 RE: Clay smrtNsassybnkr 12-04-02 45
 Jake hattiebaker 12-04-02 46
 Jake Ronnet 12-04-02 47
 Jake snoocharoo 12-04-02 48
 Clay wendyp 12-04-02 49
 Helen MatineeIdol 12-04-02 50
 Jake MakeItStop 12-04-02 51
 Jake moonbaby 12-04-02 52
 Jake WildEel 12-04-02 53
 Jake Boilermaker 12-04-02 54
 Jake the snake HOMEBOZO 12-04-02 55
 Jake macamrox 12-04-02 56
 Jake jkokoj 12-04-02 57
 Helen frisky 12-04-02 58
 Clay lizzmac 12-04-02 59
 Clay Genius47 12-04-02 60
 Jake AyaK 12-04-02 61
 Jake George Tirebiter 12-04-02 62
 Clay L82LIFE 12-04-02 63
 Jake specie 12-04-02 64
 Vote Subtotal #2 AyaK 12-04-02 66
 Jake dabo 12-04-02 67
 Ted tribephyl 12-04-02 68
 Jake !!!!! katem 12-04-02 69
 Jake mystic 12-04-02 70
 Jake smokedog 12-04-02 71
 Jake GuessItRains 12-04-02 72
 CLAY MikeD 12-04-02 73
 Ted zuckie 12-04-02 74
 HEY JAKE... Round Robin 12-05-02 75
 Jake pancho 12-05-02 76
 Jake sleeeve 12-05-02 77
 since Jake the snake was taken... DeclaringJihadOnSurvivor 12-05-02 78
 Jake Bursar 12-05-02 79
 CLAzY Wacko Jacko 12-05-02 80
 Jake blacknwhitedog 12-05-02 81
 Jake NTK 12-05-02 82
 Jake janisella 12-05-02 83
 Ted mistofleas 12-05-02 84
 CLAY Cathy the Canadian 12-05-02 85
 Jake jsanb 12-05-02 86
 jAKE survivorscott 12-05-02 87
 Jake Loree 12-05-02 88
 Jake poolboy 12-05-02 89
 Clay sittem 12-05-02 90
 Jake munson 12-05-02 91
 RE: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time ... MDSkinner 12-05-02 92
 Jakes the Clown steppingrazor42 12-05-02 93
 Jan zzz 12-05-02 94
 Jake Lolly 12-05-02 95
 Jake GeorgiaBelle 12-05-02 96
 jake smiles 12-05-02 97
 Jake travelingbetty 12-05-02 98
 Jake FesterFan1 12-05-02 99
 Jake TheWanderer 12-05-02 100
 Jake lroy 12-05-02 101
 Jake bobstew617 12-05-02 102
 Clay SuperClyde 12-05-02 103
 Vote Subtotal #3 ejm92 12-05-02 104
 CLAY SurvivaBear 12-05-02 105
 Clay Devious Weasel 12-05-02 106
 Jake ringtheory 12-05-02 107
 Jake thndrkttn 12-05-02 108
 Jake Swami 12-05-02 109
 Jake railfan 12-05-02 110
 Jan twentyfourseven 12-05-02 111
 Jake the Snake LilNik8 12-05-02 112
 Jake AresMars 12-05-02 113
 Jake the Snake RudyRules 12-05-02 114
 Jake PepeLePew13 12-05-02 115
 Jake Squarepants party of one 12-05-02 116
 FINAL Vote Total AyaK 12-05-02 117

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Messages in this topic

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 08:41 PM (EST)
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1. "Jake"
Jake.... I think... am I first??? wowowow


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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 08:51 PM (EST)
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2. "Jake"
Of course, since I vote for him this week, he'll go next week.
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 08:54 PM (EST)
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3. "Jake"
Pa-Going...

Pa-Going...

Pa-Going...

PA-GONG!!!!

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:06 PM (EST)
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4. "Brian"
can't ruin my perfect record so far
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:18 PM (EST)
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5. "Jake"
The pagonging is complete.

If the other surprise is Jake winning immunity, then I think Helen goes.

bebe

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QueenP 35 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:20 PM (EST)
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6. "Jake"
I'm going with what everyone else is saying. Someday I hope to have an original thought in my head.
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evanakm 250 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:25 PM (EST)
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7. "jake"
Good riddance, revenge must taste sweet for Shii Ann. (I didn't think it was possible for Shii Ann to get any greater until I saw that exit interview of hers)

If he wins immunity, Brian is gone

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:33 PM (EST)
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8. "Clay"
I'm going by the samiam spoiler system this week.

Also, I'm hoping the final 2 spoiler is false or I'll have to burn my S5 tapes.

And there's also the funny notion of editing and logic that I'm sure someone else will explain somewhere down the thread.

(Fanatics overload - I almost voted for Vecepia ;)

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:46 PM (EST)
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9. "Ted"
LAST EDITED ON 12-03-02 AT 09:48 PM (EST)

Unfortunately believing TDT's spoiler (pleazzze don't let Assman win!), but unable to figure out what the 2nd suprise could be if not Jake Immunity. Wait, maybe they find the boat?

*Edited to comply with Rule #4!!!

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 09:53 PM (EST)
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10. "Jake the Snake Roberts"
In a surprise move, Mark Burnett decides to replace the currently boring Jake with Professional wrestling's greatest drunk/drug addict of all time, JAKE THE SNAKE ROBERTS. His luxury item is crack.

After Jake wins the reward challenge, he DDT's Jeff Probst into a wooden box. Everyone cheers, and Jake is the hero. Then he somkes up some crack and f**ks it all up. He starts to motion that he is going to take off his pants, which Ted thankfully stops. He then pulls a snake out of the bushes and strokes it like a ...well, you know.

He gets voted out 5-1, with his vote going to the Big Boss Man.

"This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 10:01 PM (EST)
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11. "Jake"
This week appears to be all about the remaining Chuay Gahns decision to vote out Jake now or later. MB has apparently decided to edit Clay as the most likely alternative.


Recap Show:

In keeping with the tradition of featuring the next bootee during the recap show, we were shown new footage of both Jake and Clay. MB set the stage for this week.


Web Site Teasers:

"Fallout from Tribal Council inspires harsh words from one castaway, causing others to criticize the outburst."

Clay’s comments to Jake after TC are edited to set the stage for the rest of the show…MB includes criticism toward Clay from the other tribe members to create some suspense for TC, some doubt that Jake may survive another week.


"One castaway faces a critical decision that could alter the entire game."

This could be referring to Helen or Brian. Helen has already been shown contemplating whether or not to side with Jake. Brian has been shown having an alliance with both Ted and Clay. This week he will most likely be shown considering dumping Clay for Ted.

The key word in this teaser is “could”. The editing will show Helen or Brian considering the Jake vs. Clay decision, but in the end neither goes through with it.


Immunity Challenge:

Jakes only real chance is winning immunity this week. Since the RC is not physical, the IC most likely will be.

We have vidcap evidence that shows Helen and Jan running on the beach in swimsuits. It appears that the IC is physical and may involve swimming as well as running. MB has previously edited Jake making claims about his strength in the water, the irony of his statement may become apparent this week. Both Jan and Helen are stronger swimmers, and while Jake may be physically stronger, he lacks their stamina. He would also need to beat a younger, fitter Brian. Jake is at a disadvantage in this week’s IC.

EP12 Title: “The Tides are Turning”

The tides don’t turn until EP12, so the Chuay Gahn probably hold together until they are forced to boot one of their own…


Game Logic:

If Helen, Jan and Ted wanted to make a move to get rid of Clay, why risk a possible 3-3 tie? If Brian, Clay and Ted wanted to get rid of Helen or Jan, why risk a 3-3 tie. Regardless of the alliance, it makes much more sense to get rid of Jake first, and to make your move in EP12.
At this point in the game the power shifts to the Jury. Any unnecessary, unforced betrayal would be viewed in a negative light. A vote for Jake is expected and understandable and will not be held against any of the Final 5, since they are all Chuay Gahn and expected to be loyal to one another. In EP12, they have no choice but to vote out one of their own, so any “betrayal” at that point will appear to be an unfortunate necessity of the game.

From this point on, everyone will want to be on best behavior, appearing to play with honor and integrity… this week a vote for one of your own would be viewed as a betrayal, a vote for Jake is a necessary evil.

Jake will leave gracefully, with his character and dignity in tact...


Krautboy

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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 10:18 PM (EST)
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12. "Clay"
Let's just call it a gut feeling...Alternate:Jake
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echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 10:35 PM (EST)
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13. "Clay"
I'm usually wrong, but I suspect if Jake wins IC he will try to convince Helen/Jan to vote out Clay since the women (after Jake) will be the next likely targets and Ted seems more likely to sway than Brian/Clay. It could be 3-3 this week!

Alternate #1 (if Jake wins IC) Helen
Alternate #2 (Jake loses IC) Jake

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bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 10:46 PM (EST)
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14. "Jake"
Basically, I'm believing TDT, and agree with Krautboy that it wouldn't make sense for the Chewies to keep him around and risk a 3-3 tie. Finally, I don't want to believe that Clay, who has been painted as a boot possibility, will go. I'm actually rooting for him to win. I'm now going to duck and cover to avoid the barrage of rocks, garbage, and insults...
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okonkwo 98 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 10:54 PM (EST)
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15. "Clay"
I almost went with Brian, because it would be the smartest move on Helen/Jan/Ted's part. But I think Clay is behing edited to be voted out now, so Im going with him.
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 11:32 PM (EST)
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16. "jake "
sookies suck more then the pagons 7 in a row. 20 somethings suck at survivor.
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fivestarwheezy 958 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 11:50 PM (EST)
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17. "Jake"
I don't think Jake can win a physical immunity challenge.
Go Clay! I love that guy. I know, I'm one of the few.
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specie 52 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 06:37 PM (EST)
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65. "love that Clay"
If it ends up Clay v. Brian, who wouldn't root for the shrimpy scrawny guy who got picked last and called himself a diamond in the rough? Let us not forget that first day...

Of course with the recrap featuring Clay as an assman, how would that play to the public as the winner? And to think it could come down to the assman vs the porn star! I'm rooting for Helen, Ted, and crazy janny granny, in that order.

--specie

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corcam 374 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 11:56 PM (EST)
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18. "Ted"
I think Jake will survive this week. Pagonging isn't fun takes the excitment out of the game... personally I think they final people left are boring and I don't think I would really care if any of them win. Of course definently not Clay or Ted...they both suck. LOL LOL

I believe Helen wins reward and Jake wins immunity... boot is Ted.. if TDT is right then Brian will want to get rid of one of them when the going is good and he can still look like he is wonderful when Helen, Jake, & Jan vote him out, Clay votes for some random person, and Brian votes for Jake along with Ted. That way he gets his vote in the end.

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Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 11:58 PM (EST)
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19. "Jan"
Jake wins the IC and the CG go back to their old boot order.
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 00:02 AM (EST)
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20. "Ted"
I believe the F2 spoilers, unfortunately. But maybe Jake lasts another week. I doubt it, but hey...might as well mix it up a bit.
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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 00:04 AM (EST)
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21. "Clay"
A little pigeon told me that his time has come. Get it...Clay Pigeon?
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 00:26 AM (EST)
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22. "Ted"
Show title...A Surprise and Then Another...

Vidcaps make it look like either Ted or Helen win RC. I am pointing toward Ted. In the past when it has been the family visit, they have showed a little bit of the family member like Kathy's son and Sean's dad. This time they showed nothing, possibly because it would be a giveaway if Ted wins.

There's our first surprise for Ted. His brother comes to visit him on the island.

Then another, Jake somehow wins immunity. Desperation can bring out the best. It may be the answer questions and bring things back challenge which may favor Jake in a way (or at least give him a chance to win).

Somehow this could bring about Ted's second surprise: the boot.

Also, on ETOnline, they have profiled every player in the game to date before they were booted. The only two players in the game still that have been profiled are Ted and Jake (Jake once, and Ted three times).

Alternate Pick: Obviously Jake

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PlaneJane3 110 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 00:27 AM (EST)
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23. "Clay"
Ok, i have a few options. The first is to vote out Jake, the obvios target. But i just don't think it will be him this week. But that is just my gut talking. Now, either Clay or Brian. I say they take out Clay, who has been getting a lot of face time recently.
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johnthemod 423 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 00:50 AM (EST)
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24. "CLAY"
I've been voting for him for weeks now. I will continue to pick him until he is gone. He is an awful little man.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 01:04 AM (EST)
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25. "Jake"
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 01:07 AM (EST)

Um, what IceCat said. Very clever Ice!
And kudos to Krautboy for terrific outline of the reasons why!

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skyisbluu 40 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 01:26 AM (EST)
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26. "Clay"
Given his stupid move last week influenced purely by emotions and not following king Brian's decree, plus the fact that Jake will surprise us all with an astounding win of immunity, I see it being Clay's time to go. And not a moment to soon, either - he was really starting to annoy me.
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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 02:16 AM (EST)
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27. "J-A-K-E"
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 02:17 AM (EST)

yeah yeah we know, it should be pretty obvious...

EDIT TO SAY: Yeah, i know i have a problem w/ that!!! But i remembered that on the first try this time and it won't happen again!! Thanks

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phonarr 29 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 02:26 AM (EST)
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28. "Jake"
My emotions say Clay, but OFG says Jake. I'v learnt ever since I was knocked out of the top 25 on spoiling safari (S3) not to go against her predictions, one can ride her coat-tails for a better result.
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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 06:35 AM (EST)
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29. "JAKE..."
...but I hope it's Cretin Clay or Grindin'Ted instead.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 06:46 AM (EST)
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30. "Jake"
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 06:46 AM (EST)

Let's take care of business:

51 GEORGIA
07 GEORGIA TECH

IceCat has already put the good humor line, so I won't even attempt one. I have seen no evidence, or even misdirection, that suggests anything BUT Jake leaving.

GO GEORGIA BULLDOGS! BEAT ARKANSAS FOR THE SEC TITLE!!!

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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 06:51 AM (EST)
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31. "Jake"
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-02 AT 10:38 AM (EST)

Damn you TDT! I was all ready to pick Clay, too.

Sorry. Left my sig pic in. F me.

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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 09:06 AM (EST)
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32. "Jake"
*yawn*
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Cin 843 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 09:13 AM (EST)
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33. "Clay"
I so hope I'm right!

Cin

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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 09:24 AM (EST)
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34. "Jake (idiotic reasoning included)"
Seeing how I have a thread about Clay being next passenger on the ship to Bootonia, I better come clean on my real bootee this week (yes, TDT influenced...sigh...)

Reasons for a jake boot

1) Pagong, but not just for the trend of it, but because CG are quite the "family", it is not exactly Lovestock, but they have a deep commitment and loyalty to each other. Jan's directions from Brian at IC, Helen running to Brian and Clay upon RC return, Ted not wanting to believe Jake, Helen's hand on Brian's leg in RC preview.

2) In Ep 10, they wanted to vote Jake

3) Jake's failure to make alliances

4) We were SHOWED he failed to make alliances (If his attempts were successful, we may not have been shown his attempts so that way Ep 11 would have the surprise of him staying)

5) Chances for immunity are slim (RC is not physical, last IC was not physical, IC before that was not physical, so chances are this IC will be physical), couple this with the absence of IC vidcaps, which makes sense if it was physical because then a Jake boot would be easier to predict for lack of immunity. (I believe the vidcap of Helen and Jan running on beach is return from treemail and Helen is running because it hints at family)

6) No weight loss spoilers for Jake

7) Jake's ubiquitous look of defeat in all preview vidcaps. I can smell defeat through my monitor.

Does the title "Big Surprise and another..." indicate a surprise boot? I doubt it, why would they want to tell you that, a surprise boot gives the average viewers a thrill and earns respect from the OCD viewers (aka spoilers) when they fail to predict it.

I think it might refer to the RC, with jeff saying, "here is a surprise" <insert family member>, "and here is another" <insert second family member/friend, or car, or feast, or exotic trip for winners, or Jeff doing handstand>.

Evidence for this? In the RC vidcaps there are two different moments of Helen blowing an ovary (Clay's buff switches places), one is obviously the first sighting of her family, the second could be:
1) Her winning the RC (but why is everyone SO freakin' happy for her), so perhaps it is
2) Her winning RC and now they bring out ANOTHER family member, or tell her she won a car, or she gets to ride Jeff around the island like a pack mule.

Plus, if you interpret the "surprise" as a surprise boot and it is not a surprise boot, then didn't the boot surprise you? Self-fulfilling prophecy.

Just my thoughts, or at least the noise between my ears...

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12-04-02, 09:28 AM (EST)
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35. "Jake"
But the bigger question is...will the ice storm headed toward my part of the country prevent my discussing this on the boards tomorrow...or even watching the show altogether? I know y'all don't care, but hey, it matters to me.

Helen or Ted for RC - leaning toward Helen.

While I can't figure out what the second surprise is (maybe a new car in addition to the family visit?), Jake is the most dangerous person to face in a F2, since he has 3 tribemates already on the jury. CG won't risk losing the advantage they've worked so hard for and will eliminate him at the first opportunity.

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12-04-02, 09:30 AM (EST)
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36. "Vote Tally #1"
This is post #36 compiling 35 votes and no previous tallies.

Jake: 20
Clay: 9
Ted: 4
Brian: 1
Jan: 1
Helen: UTR

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12-04-02, 09:53 AM (EST)
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37. "Jake"
No reason
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12-04-02, 10:10 AM (EST)
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38. "Clay"
So many reasons. Jake is too obvious, and Clay's outburst should be enough to keep Jake around. Of course, this is merely speculation, but I think Helen, Jan & Jake will vote out Clay. And I think the surprises will revolve around Ted. Ted wins reward/visit with brother, and then Ted will be the deciding vote to oust Clay. Next week's tides turning will have Brian all alone in his kingdom and vulnerable to a boot.

Until Jake takes the walk, I will stand by my position that he's being kept for the endgame.

It's off to the jury for Clay where the grASS may not be greener, but it's definately nicer to look at.

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12-04-02, 10:13 AM (EST)
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39. "Jake"
and fivestarwheezy you are not alone, I like Clay too. Not sure why, just think he adds color to the show when no one else does anything interesting.

And really guys, None of you would be looking at Erins ass all day on an Island with no food and nothing else to do? Come on.

I think Ted would go next, or in place of Jake if he wins immunity. if he wins immunityHelen will side with Brian and Clay knowing that she will have Jan in her pocket if Ted leaves. Then they take out Jake next and Helen/Jan can battle Brian/Clay on an even footing.

But I think Jake should go this week. Why keep him around and shoot yourself in the foot with a jury member.

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12-04-02, 10:39 AM (EST)
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40. "Jake"
It's so obvious. He can only be saved by a IC win, I don't see that happening
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12-04-02, 10:52 AM (EST)
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41. "Jake"
His time is finally up. Its sad because lately he is the only real drama to mix things up. Looking as if IC is physical dwindles his chances of wearing the only IC necklace that could kill you if you fell with it on. Pagong him now, so that we can get ready for Grandmas boot next week.
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12-04-02, 11:15 AM (EST)
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42. "Ted"
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 12:37 PM (EST)

I believe that TDT has hit on the final two, ruling out a Clay boot.

Also, I think that there has to be something more to the title of this episode than two reward surprises. It was pointed out by EJM* in another thread that in past seasons, the recrap has often been followed by a surprise boot. I think this season will follow in past season's footsteps, and we will see a surprise boot. The only way this happens is if Jake wins immunity, otherwise he's the goner.

What bigger surprise than Ted going, after the many times his final two alliance with Brian was shoved down our throats?

Alt: Jake, if he doesn't win immunity.

*Edited to give credit where credit is due

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12-04-02, 11:38 AM (EST)
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43. "Jake"
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 12:05 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 11:40 AM (EST)

Since I believe the TDT spoiler, I believe the rest of the season will play out in the dullest way possible.

The recrap was positioned where it was not because it precedes a surprise! boot, but in order to generate suspense for a possible surprise! boot. All of America is wondering: will the initially cocky, then (briefly) despondent Jake, who has now achieved the quintessential underdog status of lone Sook Jai standing, and is trying his best to stay alive, be able to "get back in it"?

The answer is no. Can't spell PAGONG without that final GONG.

I also suspect that the Ep 12 title "The Tides Are Turning" signifies, among other things, that Being Eldest has now lost all Importance. Jake is gone, Jan will be next.

**Edited once to fix typo, and once to add:
Krautboy, I hope SB "steals" your logic again for the Official Vote post.

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12-04-02, 11:43 AM (EST)
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44. "Jake"
Well stated and cited by Krautboy.
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12-04-02, 11:43 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Clay"
I think he will be our surprise boot this week.He has had a big spike in face time, and MB needs to keep us on our toes. after the re-cap episode, I think we need a surprise boot.
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12-04-02, 12:17 PM (EST)
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46. "Jake"
He seems unlikely to win immunity. The rest of the group will vote him off if he fails.
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12-04-02, 12:26 PM (EST)
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47. "Jake"

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12-04-02, 12:42 PM (EST)
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48. "Jake "
n/m

"no time for love Dr. Jones"

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12-04-02, 12:54 PM (EST)
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49. "Clay"
Have not caught up on all the spoilers, but I think Jake is too obvious.
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12-04-02, 12:59 PM (EST)
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50. "Helen"
Helen
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12-04-02, 01:05 PM (EST)
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51. "Jake"
The Pagonging will continue. Damn! I so wanted it to be Clay!
<waves to TDT to welcome him to SB>
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12-04-02, 01:07 PM (EST)
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52. "Jake"
Bye bye old hottie guy. Oh sure, mock me.

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12-04-02, 03:19 PM (EST)
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53. "Jake"
I really doubt that there will be a SJ winner no matter what Paratrooper says. Jake's just had too much face time lately and i can't see Jan switching alliances although he may be able to pull Helen on his side.

Alt. Clay because i'm sick of listening to him.

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12-04-02, 03:46 PM (EST)
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54. "Jake"
Game Logic tells it is going to be Jake. Plus the fact that IC looks to be physical, which Jake has not excelled in compared to the rest of the Survivors.

Finally I have always thought Brian was in the finals since his "Don't judge a book by it's cover".

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12-04-02, 03:56 PM (EST)
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55. "Jake the snake"
He's to big a threat with so many of his old team on the jury.
He's a loose thread that needs pulled.

Homebozo

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12-04-02, 04:03 PM (EST)
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56. "Jake"
Jake
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12-04-02, 04:05 PM (EST)
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57. "Jake"

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12-04-02, 04:23 PM (EST)
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58. "Helen"
Surprise: Jake wins immunity

Another: Hell-on-Wheels gets the boot (challenge threat after winning IC last episode and RC this episode).

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12-04-02, 04:23 PM (EST)
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59. "Clay"
1. I think one of the "surprises" in the title is that an original Chuay Gahn is voted out - either by treachery or because Jake wins immunity.

2. Of the remaining CGs, I think Clay is in the most tenuous position, by virtue of his vote against Jake last week.

3. I don't subscribe to the TDT F2 spoiler - yet. I reserve the right to change my mind

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12-04-02, 04:25 PM (EST)
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60. "Clay"
I don't think Jake will go this episode, and I think that Clay's getting mad at Jake might make people vote him out.
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12-04-02, 05:39 PM (EST)
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61. "Jake"
I either believe in TDT's spoiler all the way -- in which case Jake goes -- or I'm a hypocrite. Well, at least this week, I'm not a hypocrite.
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12-04-02, 05:59 PM (EST)
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62. "Jake"
I'm pulling a Mama Kim this week, riding the coattails of everyone who's had nothing better to do than follow this latest abortion.

At this rate, I won't even need a 12-step program, cuz EPMB seems to be mastering the concept of Aversion Therapy. . . (Good gawd--I think I even expressed a wish to return to the era of Dique, this week!)

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12-04-02, 06:04 PM (EST)
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63. "Clay"
I have no idea why! Maybe it's just wishful thinking.
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12-04-02, 06:19 PM (EST)
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64. "Jake"
None of the CGs need Jake at this point (or at least none of them think they do). There's enough brand loyalty to keep the Pagong show going, and none of the CGs want to go up against a Sookie in the F2. It would be too risky to let Jake into the final 5. If there were a Shii-Ann type malcontent something might happen, but I don't see it with these Chewies.

--specie

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12-04-02, 06:47 PM (EST)
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66. "Vote Subtotal #2"
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 06:48 PM (EST)

This is post #66 compiling 63 votes, 1 rules violation (hi, specie!) and 1 previous subtotal. Jake has a huge lead, which must be attributed to the TDT influence (for good or bad).

Jake.......39
Clay.......15
Ted.........5
Helen.......2
Brian.......1
Jan.........1

TDT: no longer UTR

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12-04-02, 07:02 PM (EST)
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67. "Jake"
alt: Helen (if Jake wins immunity).
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12-04-02, 07:44 PM (EST)
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68. "Ted"
My belief is that there will be a suprise boot, as others have mentioned.
Let's just pretend for the sake of arguement that Jake is next to go...everyone left knows it, and everyone left is playing accordingly.
Yet, Clay can't seem to keep his trap shut for some reason. C'mon! Giving the old guy grief, and right as Jake couldn't feel any lower (he's the last of his original tribe, his last member just left, but only after stabbing him in the back,etc.)."The lowest low" if you will. But Jake has a moment of Joy as well, in this Ep. no less.
Since his joy is most likely not because of the RC then it would follow that it most likely will be the IC.
If indeed Jake wins IC it would follow that the CG's have to cannabalize. Jake has had confessionals where he mentions that he has stirred the pot but no-one is biting...yet. He has decided to sit back and wait for their approach. Now CG will have to.
IMO,MB is setting the stage for a Ted and Clay showdown, Jake has given Ted as much info as he needs to figure out that Clay is the suspect of the votes thrown at him. And Clay's big mouth, well that just makes it even more obvious. Ted will now have to convince all the others that Clay is the one to go. And, it may seem that Clay has indeed alienated all, and will be voted off, until there are rumblings of a possible Ted ousting as well.
Ted "successfully" rallies Jan and Jake to get to TC and vote for Clay. Brian, Helen and Clay decide to vote for Ted's boot. Looks like a tie.
But we will not see a tie. Jake will then side with Brian,Clay and Helen, giving Ted 4, against Clay's 2. Bye Ted. Get some councelling when you get home.
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12-04-02, 07:52 PM (EST)
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69. "Jake !!!!!"
Several reasons:

1. It was said prior to the season, that these people played the game very traditionally. This means Chewies will Pagong the Suckies.

2. I believe the Dorks, and my PTTE is actually set up with Brian and Clay as the finalists.

3. See Krautboy's summary.

4. It makes perfect sense.

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12-04-02, 08:26 PM (EST)
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70. "Jake"
Like what Katem said, makes perfect sense.
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12-04-02, 08:56 PM (EST)
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71. "Jake"
Pagong!
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12-04-02, 09:01 PM (EST)
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72. "Jake"
Well since it's not yet inconsistent with my Ted/Jan thesis and all of the Bluemen, Krautboy, and OFG, are all on board (as is TDT), who am I to argue?
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MikeD 344 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-02, 09:37 PM (EST)
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73. "CLAY"
Bye bye clay
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12-04-02, 11:26 PM (EST)
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74. "Ted"
I do not see Brian, Helen, or Jan voting for Clay and HOPE Jake will win immunity.
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12-05-02, 00:13 AM (EST)
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75. "HEY JAKE..."
...it's time for you to go!
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12-05-02, 02:36 AM (EST)
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76. "Jake"
pancho
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12-05-02, 02:57 AM (EST)
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77. "Jake"
Okay... time to play "what could happen":

Jan and Helen have a sudden moment of enlightenment where they realize that they are not part of the revealed alliance between Ted/Brian/Clay. They turn to Jake and in a 3-3 tie we learn about the new tie-breaker. Shocking deals are made, and the whole game is turned on its head!!

Or... Ted starts to believe that Clay and Brian are closer to each other, and begins to doubt his position in the game. He leads an anti-Brian and Clay campaign which results in one of their undoing. Or better yet, Jake sides with Brian and Clay, and we get a 3-3 tie and a dramatic TC.

Or... It turns out that there is a secret alliance between Jan and Ted and they recruit Jake... but maybe there's a secret alliance between Brian and Helen and they recruit Clay... and there's a big tie at TC... or Jake swaps sides and Jan and/or Ted are knocked out.

Or... maybe the Pagonging will continue and Jake will be voted out 5-1.

Now let's get over our little fantasy that S5 is actually interesting... take a deep breath... feel better now? Good.

Okay... so Jake is gone.

RC: We have evidence that Helen is missing from a group scene in which they are apparently waving to the ocean... thus, Helen will probably win the reward, and a visit from a loved one.

IC: This is more of a crap shoot... but there's nothing to suggest that Brian's reign of challenge dominance will not continue. Brian has won most of the individual challenges so far that did not rely on some outside element (ie torch snuffing or family member). Thus, Brian is probably this season's challenge king.

Summary:
Boot: Jake
IC: Brian
RC: Helen

Oh... let's throw in a few alternates for good measure:
Alt Boot: Brian
Alt IC: Clay
Alt RC: Ted


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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12-05-02, 08:29 AM (EST)
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78. "since Jake the snake was taken..."
What?
Huh?
Sorry...I wasn't paying attention
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12-05-02, 09:31 AM (EST)
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79. "Jake"
You're no Paschal, it's time to go.
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12-05-02, 09:37 AM (EST)
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80. "CLAzY "
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-02 AT 10:43 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 12-05-02 AT 10:42 AM (EST)

I think there are many reasons pointing to Clay. He voted against his other tribe members last week. You gotta think Brian clued Clay into who they were voting for but he still voted for Jake. This will make Brian not trust Clay. Also if they didn't clue Clay in to who they were voting for that is equally as bad.

I also think Clay needs to get to know Penny better. He is the only CG attending the wedding. Which lead me to believe Jake and Clay are the next two to go and that is why the other 4 did not go. Because they made the final four.

His blow up this week against Jake's speech will not help either.

Also if I were on the island the little boosting lazy complainer would get on my nerves real quick.

He is history.

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12-05-02, 09:47 AM (EST)
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81. "Jake"
My internet connection has been extremely unreliable that last 3 days, so I haven't read any postings, but I'll agree with the rest of the votes and go for Jake.

If Jake happens to win immunity, then I think Ted.

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12-05-02, 10:00 AM (EST)
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82. "Jake"
I was thinking the surprise would be the boot. But, the surprise is most likely the family members and their participation in the challenge. Also, I can't grasp that Clay is not headed for the jury. So, a grudging vote for the Snake.
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janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-05-02, 10:10 AM (EST)
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83. "Jake"
I'm going to keeping picking him until he goes.
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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 11:28 AM (EST)
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84. "Ted"
Just keeping with my tradition, that's all.

mistofleas --drinks more coffee and waits for tonight

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Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-05-02, 11:31 AM (EST)
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85. "CLAY"
Wishful thinking ... hunch ... whatever.
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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

12-05-02, 11:46 AM (EST)
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86. "Jake"
If he wins immunity then Jan will go.

Peanut Butter Jeff
"If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."

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survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

12-05-02, 12:29 PM (EST)
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87. "jAKE"
Unless he wins immunity and then Clay

Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 12:47 PM (EST)
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88. "Jake"
It's the end of an era and a tribe. Bye Bye Jake...
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poolboy 24 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 12:50 PM (EST)
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89. "Jake"
Enough said.
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sittem 4186 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 01:44 PM (EST)
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90. "Clay"
Just because I don't want TDT to be correct. Maybe things are a little tense after the last TC. Maybe he's promised too much to to many people. Maybe Jan, Ted and Jake ally against him. Maybe, maybe, maybe..........

Not likely - most likely a Jake boot, but let's be suprised as it's promised!

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"

12-05-02, 01:54 PM (EST)
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91. "Jake"
Pagonging complete.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 02:04 PM (EST)
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92. "RE: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-02 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

Jake.

The end of the pagonging for this round of Survivor.


Edited to put my freakin vote in. Sorry all.

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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 02:14 PM (EST)
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93. "Jakes the Clown"
man I miss that clown..........

Anyway, I can hear the faint sound of pa-GONG, pa-GONG getting closer and closer. Jake gave it the ol' college try but no ones buying it.

B-bye

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-05-02, 02:15 PM (EST)
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94. "Jan"
OK--I know it is almost certainly Jake to go--but I just desparately want the show to be more interesting than that. If it is Jake this would actually be the first true "pagong" because even in S1, it was only Kelly's immunity run that kept her in longer than Colleen.

I do have a theory for why it might be Jan. First, assume Jake gets immunity. I also recall that Jan admitted after Ghandia was booted that Jan herself would likely be next if they had to go back to TC. I know that a lot has happened since then, but Jan was the one that betrayed the "boys". That might still be remembered. Just wishful thinking for an interesting episode--but it could happen.

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Lolly 721 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 02:19 PM (EST)
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95. "Jake"
For the same reasons as last week. But I'm hoping I'm wrong again.
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GeorgiaBelle 2136 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 02:27 PM (EST)
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96. "Jake"
Simply the last SJ left. I can't give one reason for him to stay.
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smiles 675 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 02:52 PM (EST)
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97. "jake"
you've been voted off of the island!
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travelingbetty 296 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 03:08 PM (EST)
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98. "Jake"
There is no reason to believe that CG won't finish the job they started two episodes ago.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 03:14 PM (EST)
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99. "Jake"
Guess what the "Another" surprise is not...

Fester

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 03:34 PM (EST)
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100. "Jake"
Helen as an alternate if Jake wins immunity.
I've been lurking for a while and haven't (up 'til now) had the time to post. Works been keeping me very busy. Good to be back.
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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-05-02, 03:56 PM (EST)
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101. "Jake"
I'm going to be a lemming, i've been in the UK, so what the hell do i know.
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bobstew617 723 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 03:57 PM (EST)
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102. "Jake"
I voted for him last time, and it looks like CG will come back and finish the job. Helen and Jan must know they will be vulnerable after this week.

Amazing how this season has turned out like S1?

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SuperClyde 87 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

12-05-02, 04:06 PM (EST)
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103. "Clay"
I just can't see how the "and another" surprise can mean anything other than a non-Jake boot.
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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

12-05-02, 04:14 PM (EST)
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104. "Vote Subtotal #3"
This is post #104, compiling 100 votes, 1 rules violation, and 2 previous subtotals.....Jake leads the way, with lots of help from TDT and Snewser......

Jake - 67
Clay - 20
Ted - 8
Helen - 2
Jan - 2
Brian - 1

UTR - Magilla, Oliver, Jeff Probst

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SurvivaBear 2634 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 04:22 PM (EST)
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105. "CLAY"
Like others, I desperately want some life to this show. Spoiling is not much fun when the show is so predictable. Besides, if Jake wins immunity (BIG IF!) then Clay needs to get to know Penny and Erin better.
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 04:28 PM (EST)
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106. "Clay"
Despite TDT and Snewser, despite ABT and others, I will cling irrationally to the hope that this season can generate excitement until it is shown to me by the light of my glowing Sony that Clay and Brian are the final two. After all, sometimes even the most reliable sources have unreliable sources that they have relied on; sometimes the most reliable sources have agendas different from the agenda of the person receiving the data.

So I picked Clay. Cause I hate him...

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ringtheory 19 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 04:30 PM (EST)
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107. "Jake"
Because he's there...
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thndrkttn 3216 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 04:34 PM (EST)
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108. "Jake"

I would much rather be voting for the ever-repugnant and wretched dwarf Clay or NeBRIanderthal as I think that would really shake things up and at least make this fun.

Alas, I lem. I think the 'another surprise' is just a smokescreen to lure us away from believing the final pagonging will not actually happen....but it will. <sigh>

The captain goes down with the ship.

Bye Jake.

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Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 04:34 PM (EST)
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109. "Jake"
-what Krautboy said-

Big surprise & another is all about the RC, because this week's show is brought to you by the unsurprising letters P.A.G.O.N. and G.

Besides, once the Pagong is over, CG have to cannibalize and maybe the show will get interesting again.

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railfan 450 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"

12-05-02, 04:48 PM (EST)
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110. "Jake"
Hmmmmm, Snewser or Paratrooper? I'll go with Snewser, better long-term track record.
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twentyfourseven 31 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

12-05-02, 05:03 PM (EST)
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111. "Jan"
just to be somewhat different as i've no information to back this up.

none at all.........

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LilNik8 195 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

12-05-02, 05:20 PM (EST)
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112. "Jake the Snake"
PAGONG!
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AresMars 283 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

12-05-02, 05:47 PM (EST)
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113. "Jake"
As much as I hate to see him go I can't see the pagonging stopping. I feel the Chewies will not want to alienate any of their tribe members knowing that some will soon be on the jury so it will be safer to axe the remaining SJ and then begin the feeding on each other next week.


God Bless America



There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.

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RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-02, 06:01 PM (EST)
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114. "Jake the Snake"
Sorry to see ya go Jakester!


"Them people had to be pretty dumb to make their camp in a riverbed." - Rudy Boesch

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

12-05-02, 07:57 PM (EST)
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115. "Jake"
From a game standpoint, no other person makes more sense as a bootee than Jake. As Krautboy mentioned, T/B/C (or Jan/H/T) won't risk having a 3-3 vote come up so now isn't the time to try any fancy alliance moves. Pagong Jake first and then let the dominating alliance ride it out to the final three.

The only thing I can see disrupting this scenario is for Jake to win immunity. However there's nothing to indicate that Jake could beat out 5 younger folks in what is most likely a physical challenge of some sort.

Clay is my second choice as a bootee - but I think all of the editing thus far suggests he's a good bet to win IC with all the attention dumped on him as a potential bootee.

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Squarepants party of one 62 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

12-05-02, 08:11 PM (EST)
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116. "Jake"
Pagong
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

12-05-02, 08:33 PM (EST)
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117. "FINAL Vote Total"
This is post #117, compiling 112 votes, 1 rules violation, and 3 previous subtotals. Jake has a clear majority.

Jake...76
Clay...22
Ted.....8
Jan.....3
Helen..2
Brian...1 (huh?)

UTR ... Survivor 6

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