I think there is enough "evidence" (I use that term loosely) for me to consolidate much of the hard work by others and offer the following boot list with trepidation (I've posted lots of wrong analyses so I don't have a perfect track record to muck up anyway):Ep 11: Clay
Ep 12: Helen
Ep 13: Brain, Ted (F3), Jan and Jake as F2
(I offer no winner speculation)
I'll work the reasoning backwards from the F2:
Jan and Jake as F2:
1) Importance of being E...est.
As far as I know, I was the first here to strongly speculate that this title had endgame meaning. On 10-8-02 (before episode 4) I started a thread titled, "The Importance of 'The Importance of Being E...est.'", I don't know how to do links, just do a search of the posts here.
2) Paratrooper says winner is a SJ. I interpret this as a SJ is in F2 and Paratrooper speculates SJ is a winner. I am not making any winner speculations.
3) Jan's strange mantel items mentioned in an interview, something probably garnered late in game with much internal symbolism and external posterity.
4) Rumor that Ted is in F3 with man and woman
5) Erin's post boot comment: "So it's gonna be difficult, because I'm friends with CG, yet I'm part of SJ, and I am on the Jury and make the decision for who wins." Sounds like a CG vs SJ final two. And who is she friends with? Jan is on her current list of friends. Helen is also, but I think that Helen is part game bonding, part Jury bonding. Jan is part game bonding, and part post-game bonding because she mentions in her web-chat that she sees Jan's son at her work occasionally.
6) TDT posted long time ago that Jake was not on Jury (although their current speculations do not support this earlier claim)
7) Editing: neither are stand-out winners for many reasons. And we know nothing (superficially at least) about Jan's alliances. Jake will be creating new ones in the episodes to come.
8) The fact we were not shown their private picnic retreat at the pseudo merge. I think this is major. We know that Jake approached Jan for an alliance, and I think we even know it was done at this picnic sequestering. We also know that Jan was not interested and is not currently allied with Jake. So here is why we were not shown the footage of them getting along swimmingly and Jan being offered an alliance: because we would have started speculating a Jan + Jake duo long before it actually came to be. If those two were never to pair up and do well to the end, then we probably would have seen their little romantic sojourn in the brush.
Ted as F3rd:
1) As above, rumor of ted in F3. Also the ABT rumor of Ted in F4 and the family visit rumor of F5. Rumors carry him into F3, but not further.
2) The probable non-revealed alliance/friendship with Jan. See separate thread on that. Partnership with Jan assists him to F3.
3) Not on Erin's friends' list, perhaps no Jury-bonding time.
Brian as F4th:
1) Also not on Erin's list-o-friends, minimal bonding time?
2) Ken does not seem chummy with him either, minimal jury-bonding time? Brian does get a little more time that Ted to do Jury bonding, but Brian may be so shocked at his ousting that he piddles his Jury-bonding time away by sulking.
Helen as F5th:
1) Helen is on Erin's friends' list.
2) Her alliance with Brian may be getting tighter, so they will fall together as their alliance fires with others are less tended.
Clay as F6th:
1) All jury-members' chats speak well of Clay
2) On Erin's current list of friends
3) Went to Penny's wedding
*** Overall, this guy was a Jury-Gigolo.***
4) I'm leaning hard at an episode 11 boot, as are most others I think.
Is there evidence against any of the above?, Hell Yes and I I'll leave it for others to post.
Vive vale, BI
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