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"Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?"
GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 10:23 AM (EST)
 
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"Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
I was going to post this under Chewy alliances, but it got so long I thought I'd give it its own thread. I'm really interested in other spoiler's thoughts on this point.Here is a direct transcript of the conversation among the Chewie 5 about who to vote out in those few minutes between IC and TC last night. Standing left to right are Helen, Brian, Clay, Ted, and Jan.
Helen: I think the snake has to go.
Brian: Yep. Me too.
Clay: Who?
Brian: The snake has to go.
Clay: Who? Jake?
Brian: Uh-huh. Number one.
(Helen holds up one finger and nods.) Then we get an earlier confessional from Ted about wanting to vote Penny out because she is sucking up to Brian and Clay. Back to night. Ted is now standing next to Brian
Ted: Are you Ok with this or no?
At that point the conversation becomes unintelligible. Now there's more than one way to read this, but the only one that makes any sense to me is that Ted AND JAN swayed B/H/C from their preferred vote choice of Jake. Brian and Helen are pretty clear who their "number one" target is, and it isn't Penny. Clay's statements are more equivocal, but since he actually voted for Jake you can bet he wasn't a leader in the switch to Penny either. Could Ted have gone it alone? Maybe. But if B/H/C and Jan all wanted to vote out Jake, their votes would have been enough regardless of what Ted did. I doubt if one vocal person could have swayed 3, but 2 vocal people could sway 3 who don't particularly care, especially if they assume Jake will go next week anyway. But we've had no evidence Jan and Ted are on the same wavelength. We never see them together or interacting and they seem rather different. Or have we? Here's a little graphic showing who snuffed whose torch. The left is the snuffer; the right is the torches they snuffed in order. Jan: Penny, Penny, Jake, Ted, Helen
Ted: Penny, Jake
Helen: Clay, Ted, Brian, Brian, Jan, Jan, Ted
Brian: Helen
Clay: None
Jake: Brian, Clay, Clay, Jan
Penny: Jake Notice that Jan and Ted followed the same strategy: Take out Penny, then Jake. Not as solid as the Rotu 4 pecking order, but it does seem to show they are on the same wavelength. Is it possible that Jan and Ted have at least a loose alliance? Up until now I've viewed Batty Granny Janny as the second coming of Kim J., a weak, unpopular woman hoping just to hang on as long as possible. That's what the editing has led us to believe. Jan, the crazy lady who buries bats. Jan, who at TC last night, was asked if she worries about people walking off into the woods and forming alliances (subtly implying that she certainly isn't doing anything like that). Jan the drunk. Jan, that dumb lady, who we wrote off in the first week when we she made the dumbest tribal selection picks in the universe. Except that we know most of that isn't true. Erin and Ken at least have thought of Jan as a sweet woman (in contrast to most opinions of Kim J.) and didn't even know about the pet cemetery. Jan's Chewie picks obviously were smarter than we thought. Maybe Jan is forming alliances. Another point: Helen mentioned yesterday that Jake told her he knew of a Chewie "pecking order". Reading between the lines, I think that order is as follows.
5. Ted
4. Jan
3. Helen
Final 2, Clay & Brian. If Jake approached Helen with this, there is no reason in the world to believe he didn't also approach Ted and Jan. Finding out you are at the bottom of a pecking order makes strange bedfellows...I don't think Sean and Neleh ever would have joined the same alliance otherwise. And as a final note, while Clay and Brian were eating in paradise and Jake and Helen were fetching water, Ted and Jan must have been back at camp. We saw nothing of what they did/said. Sorry this is so long, but I did want to lay out a theory. I do know that "Alliances revealed rarely succeed" and that I would never in a million years have guessed that Tina and Colby had a secret alliance before Keith was voted out. And I'm starting to think that Jan might not be the second coming of Kim J. She might be the second coming of Tina. 
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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-02, 05:04 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Just for the record, at the beginning of the game, who did Jan pick first for her team? Ted.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-02, 12:40 PM (EST)
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3. "Swing Votes" |
Good observations by all! I agree that all the evidence seems to confirm that Ted and Jan have had an alliance from the beginning.Why did Brian/Clay and Helen bow to the wishes of Ted? They didn't...they gave in to the wishes of Ted AND Jan. Ted and Jan, together, represented potential swing votes. Allienate them and it's 4-3 with Brian, Clay or Helen on the short end...Brian and Helen compromised, Clay didn't. Strong Alliances: Ted / Jan
Brian / Clay
Brian / Ted Weaker Alliances: Helen / Jan
Ted / Helen
Brian / Helen
Jan / Brian Potential Alliances: Jake / Helen Looks like Ted and Jan have a good shot at getting to the F2. Possible Boot Order: Jake : 5-1
Clay : 3-2 Ted/Jan/Helen vs Brian/Clay
Brian: 3-1 (If Brian wins Immunity Helen goes before Brian)
Helen: 2-1 Ted wins immunity and takes Jan F2 : Ted and Jan
Krautboy
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TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-02, 10:58 PM (EST)
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31. "Would Ted really take Jan over Brian to F2?" |
Why would Ted take Jan over Brian unless it was selfless? From what I've seen, Ted knows Jan has more friends from the former Sookie tribe and Brian kept things so much to just himself and other CG members that Ted has to know he stands a better chance against the cunning and quiet Brian (not to mention, upper middle class.Jan definitely has the likability factor sealed over Brian. Also Brian was shown making more deals with Jake and giving him false voting strategies which may make Jake vote for Jan in the end. As it stands, I think if the final five were all able to get votes for the grand prize $1M, Jan would get the most votes, followed by Clay, Helen, Ted and then Brian. Clay would obly receive more than Helen because of the 'old boys network that would want a guy to win, opposite of last season. We also already know that Erin and Penny both connected with Jan, Helen and Clay the most, which most likely means Ken would side with them. If Jan has the opportunity and Brian has already been eliminated, her best chance would be to take Ted or Brian, over Helen (for example) because you might split the female vote. Just as a disclaimer, I don't agree that all people follow a gender based voting strategy. I for one would want a woman to win over me if I was playing the game, just to be able to say I wasn't beaten by another guy.
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-02, 11:39 PM (EST)
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4. "Furthermore..." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-02 AT 11:42 PM (EST)Two other points in support of your idea. There's a clip in the CBS video archive for Wk 10, I think the clip is "Tribe discusses Jake's actions." I think this clip has some good spoiler material that is relevant to this thread. I'd post a transcript of it but I'm at home on a reeeally slow connection so I can't watch it.  In it, Helen runs to TED AND JAN and tells them about her conversation with Jake. For the past week or so, I've been leaning toward JAKE as Jan's secret alliance partner. But in this clip, which I believe was not aired in the episode, Jan is spitting nails at Jake. Ted asks Jan if Jake has approached her, and she said that Jake approached her the first day. This clip shows a VERY different Jan than we see on TV! (Still batty though...) I've also been thinking about the pecking order thing. Jake tells Helen about it, then she says she heard it from another member of her tribe, so "he's getting his information from someone." If the "known" alliance is Clay/Brian/Ted with Helen and Jan floating around on the periphery, then one of the guys must have whispered the info to one of the women. Maybe it went from Ted to Jan to Helen. If that's the case, then Jan is romancing both Ted AND Helen, ala Brian. In the video clip, Helen tells Ted and Jan that Jake told her the pecking order. I watched it at work on Friday but I don't remember Ted and Jan's reactions. Surprise? Feigned surprise? Or do the three of them talk about this like they've talked about it before? Damn, I wish I had a faster connection. (Edited for spelling)
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survivormitsx 271 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-02, 00:13 AM (EST)
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5. "Well..." |
Okay, all of you guys know here I have been a Janny fan since I frst saw her, so seeing her in the final two with Ted (which I have been thinking about since episode 1) seems very likely in my opinion. I am going to do a more in-depth post maybe later, but for now, take a look at this:Episode One Tribal Council
 Episode Two IC
Tribal Council
 Episode Four Tribal Council
 Episode Nine Tribal Council PICTURE NOT AVAILABLE YET. Episode Ten Tribal Council
 SEE A PATTERN?!
If your happy and you know it, Do the Cooper dance!!
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Chrissy gal 1413 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-02, 10:12 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Well..." |
Exactly what I said to my family - Jan always seems to be sitting with Ted; she always seems to congratulate Ted first when they win challenges. I think they have the type of bond that leads to a lasting alliance.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-02, 02:06 PM (EST)
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7. "The Hidden Alliance" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-24-02 AT 02:35 PM (EST)Excellent work Survivormitsx! I went back through the images at SurvivorThailand.com and confirmed that Jan and Ted have sat together at EVERY TC they have attended. More than a coincidence! They are also pictured together at every challenge! Alliances revealed don't succeed, but Jan and Ted's has been well hidden...eventhough it's been their since the beginning.
Alliances revealed to us:
Brian/Ted …Ted approached Brian during a canoe trip
Helen/Brian…Helen consulted with Brian about the Ghandia situation
Clay/Brian…Clay approached Brian on the beach Helen/Brian/Ted…Helen shown going to Brian/Ted about her conversation with Jake
Jake/Helen…Jake trying to get Helen to make the switch. Hidden Alliances: Ted/Jan…we have vidcap evidence showing them together from the beginning
Jan/Helen…a dormant alliance waiting to blossom when Helen makes her move.
Current alliance structure
(****=strongest, *=weaker)
Jake * Helen ** Jan **** Ted *** Brian *** Clay Ted /Jan/ Helen are in position to take over the game once Jake is gone.
The strongest “hidden alliance” will take Ted and Jan to the final 2…
Krautboy
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-02, 07:12 PM (EST)
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9. "Jan + Ted clues - more analysis needed" |
GuessItRains, great thread.I am liking the strong possibility of a Jan/Ted alliance. I'd like to play devil's advocate here: 1) Snuffing torches challenge: I think the helen/Brian alliance went with the "hide our alliance" approach so they snuffed each other. If the Jan/Ted alliance is strong, and it is believed to be revealed in this challenge, then why did Jan snuff Ted's torch before Helen's? 2) TC seating proximity: It has been stated in this thread that they sat together at all 4 TCs, technically that sat side-by-side at 3 and front-to-back at 1. This does weaken the statistical significance of the interpretation of their seating. I'd encourage someone to do a similar proximity analysis of them arriving at RCs and ICs - this can really help bolster the proximity theory. Just some thoughts and suggestions (I'm too lazy and absent of taped episodes to actually do any REAL analytical work...sorry...)
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-02, 10:19 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Jan Ted clues - more analysis needed" |
I'd
>encourage someone to do a
>similar proximity analysis of them
>arriving at RCs and ICs
>- this can really help
>bolster the proximity theory.
>
>Just some thoughts and suggestions (I'm
>too lazy and absent of
>taped episodes to actually do
>any REAL analytical work...sorry...) OK...Here you go: Ted and Jan have sat together at every TC and are always in close proximity at Challenges... 
EP1 Tribal Council…
EP2 Challenge…
EP2 Tribal Council…
EP3 Chuay Gahn Camp
EP3 IC
EP3 Sook Jai goes to TC 
EP4 Chuay Gahn Camp
EP4 Tribal Council…
EP5 Reward Challenge…
EP5 Immunity Challenge…
EP5 Sook Jai goes to TC 
EP6 Reward Challenge…
EP6 IC
EP6 Sook Jai goes to TC 
EP7 RC…
EP7 Morning after the big Drunk…
EP7 IC victory…
EP7 Sook Jai goes to TC 
EP8 Merged camps…
EP8 IC…
EP8 Sook Jai TC 
EP9 IC…
(NO TC IMAGES AVAILABLE)
EP 9 TC …I rewatched the tape: Ted and Jan sat next to each other in the back row.
EP10 Tribal Council
Ted and Jan have had an alliance from the beginning...that may very well carry them to the end.
Krautboy
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-02, 02:22 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Jan Ted clues - more analysis needed" |
Great work Krautboy!I love to play with data, so I'll try to organize your findings into a chart: Jan and Ted together at: Epi----RC----IC----TC
1------o-----?-----Y
2------?-----?-----Y
3------Y-----?-----o
4------?-----?-----Y
5------Y-----Y-----o
6------Y-----Y-----o
7------Y-----?-----o
8------o-----?-----o
9------Y-----?-----Y
10-----?-----?-----Y
All----5/8---2/10---5/5 o = challenge did not occur OR CG not at TC
Y = Yes, Jan and Ted next to each other
N = No, Jan and Ted not next to each other That data looks convincing for a Ted and Jan alliance (or romance) ; ) If anyone provides more info I'll update the question marks. Challenge data should be of them:
1) arriving side-by-side
2) standing side-by-side
3) or celebrating (hugging).
I could even put a # (1,2, and/or 3) to indicate which. You do not need to post the pic unless you want, you can just type the info and I'll incorporate. Unfortunately, camp photos can't be included, too random. Great Job Krautboy : )
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-02, 09:23 AM (EST)
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13. "But What About?" |
Didn't Jan side with Ghandia and voted against Ted at TC while Helen voted with the guys?
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-02, 09:30 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: But What About?" |
I think I remember Ghandia trying to convince Helen to target Clay first because Jan didn't want to vote for Ted? I could be wrong tho...
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-02, 09:44 AM (EST)
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16. "Jan's vote" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-25-02 AT 09:47 AM (EST)Sweetpea....ssshhhh...we're on a roll here. ;) You know, I thought of Jan's vote the first time I read Guess's post. Then I thought maybe Jan/Ted concocted their alliance after the Ghandia incident. But then that leaves all this great vidcap speculation up in the air. If Jan/Ted were indeed pre-alliance during the Ghandia boot, then their close proximity in the prior episodes is just a fluke, right? If so, then it could be argued that their closeness in the vidcaps of later episodes is also just a coincidence. OTOH, perhaps their alliance is so secretive that they planned the vote for Ted to throw off their tribemates. This seems unlikely though because it would've put Ted in too much danger of getting the axe. Unless they knew Helen was going to swing. Anybody else wanna take a stab at explaining Jan's vote? Edited to say: D'OH!! Jan didn't vote for Ted. I guess that sorta explains things. 
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-02, 10:21 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: But What About?" |
And just to tie a neat little bow on that, Spidey...Helen goes to Jan and Ted who are in cave and describes her convo with Jake the Snake (from CBS video archive). Ted: So anyway, yeah, we definitely need to stay away from him.
Helen: It was a full on assault and he wanted to know if I...
Ted: {nodding, smiling, interrupting} I figured that.
Helen: I didn't! I figured I'd go get him out of HERE! I figured you guys had {unintelligible}
Ted: I figured he woulda sought ya.
Helen: Yeah
Ted: Course, you don't know if...I don't know if you're the last person...{To Jan, who until this point is in a quiet stupor} Did he talk to you yet?
Jan: Just that very first day.
{Everyone talking at once}
Jan cuts in: You know what I'd say, "I don't trust anything you say because everything I'm hearing is the same thing {inaudible} I don't want to talk about it."
Helen: Oh! There he is!
Ted: You know, when he asked you about alliances...when he asked about alliances, what did you feed him?
Helen: No, he told ME! I didn't give up information.
Ted: Oooohh.
{Jan muttering incomprehensibly during all of this}
Helen: He told me Clay pulled him aside, Clay told him that he plans on winning the game, that...
Jan: Well, doesn't everybody plan on trying to win the game?
Helen: Yeah....that Clay doesn't feel that he can win with Brian, but he feels he can win against me, and feels like he can win against you (Ted), and he feels he can win against Jan. So now, see what that's doing? Then we're saying to ourselves we gotta get rid of Brian. I think CBS put this video up as more Brian misdirection, but it's value is in outing an alliance between Jan/Ted/Helen. Here is where you can tell they are on the same page: Ted: You know, when he asked you about alliances...when he asked about alliances, what did you feed him?
Helen: No, he told ME! I didn't give up information.
Ted: Oooohh. And here is evidence they are not on the same page as Clay: Helen: He told me Clay pulled him aside, Clay told him that he plans on winning the game, that...
Jan: Well, doesn't everybody plan on trying to win the game?
Helen: Yeah.. Helen's "yeah" is her trademark sarcastic "yeah." Sorry for yet another long post, but I think this just looks like a real no-holds-barred "intimate" convo between these three.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-02, 03:32 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-25-02 AT 03:33 PM (EST)Good post and thread, Rains. To all the excellent observations and vidcap evidence posted by others above, I'll add just one thing: When Ghandia was telling Helen and Jan her side of the Ted incident, Helen was very verbally responsive to Ghandia's account, while Jan said nothing. Then we heard Helen say several times that she believed Ghandia, but again we heard nothing from Jan on the subject. A small thing, but it seemed that Jan really did not want to take Ghandia's side against Ted. And of course she wouldn't vote against him, as has been pointed out. I don't know if this is an actual alliance though. I really don't think Ted would get into separate alliances with two different people, and in his mind Brian has been his Final 2 partner, though he seems to be a little worried about that now. I do think that Jan and Ted are on the same wavelength about how things should go, and we will see this more clearly in the voting decisions coming up.
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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-02, 00:02 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Ironically, if Jan and Ted do have an alliance, then Ted would have playing Brian all this time.
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prairieboypicks 2 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-02, 05:17 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Damn right!!! Ted and Jan in the final 2...H/T/J in the final 3, Jan wins immunity and takes Ted with her...Jury votes for Jan cuz she is "so dorn nice"...
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-02, 04:10 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Yes, but he isn't the type to hand over One Million Dollars to someone who is stabbing him in the back. Convince Ted that Brian has plotted against him, and Ted wouldn't hesitate to jump ship...
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-02, 04:12 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Not necessarily. Ted and Jan may have made a final three alliance with Brian. Ted and Jan may just have an informal arrangement wherein they will cover each other's backs as far as they can. Ted may have told Jan that he is aligned with Brian but will back her up as well.
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murraythedog 1 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-02, 10:49 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
A few episodes back (right before CG went on its IC winning streak) Brian and Jan both acknowledged that if GC went to TC again Jan was going to be the next to go. If there is a Jan/Ted alliance (or if there was one at that time), that would have meant that Helen, Brian and Clay were planning on voting for Jan. Does anyone who has a tape of that episode remember if Ted said anything about Jan?
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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11-30-02, 08:09 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
I don't know, I have heard alot about how thin Brian looked back at work. And by this time I think they are all going to be thin coming home. I was surprised I never heard about Jake and his weight loss.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 02:59 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
In the wake of the TDT spoiler, the Ted/Jan alliance will obviously be unsucessful. Helen is the swing vote and probably ends up taking her chances with Brian and Clay, but fails to win the pivotal F3 IC. The other possibility is that Ted convinces Brain and Clay to vote off Helen before Jan, followed by a final four of Brian/Clay vs Ted/Jan, with Brian and Clay winning the tiebreaker... It will be interesting to watch the tides change after Jake leaves...
Krautboy
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dcbrott99 9 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-02, 04:11 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Let's take this a step further. I think that there is a "hidden" alliance between Ted, Jan, and Helen. I think that this alliance has been in place ever since the so called Ghandia incident. I believe that Mark Burnett's editing is intentionally not showing us this because it will surprise us later. He has a history of doing this with, for instance, the Colby-Tina alliance. I believe Ted convinced Jan and Helen way back at the Ghandia incident that they should have an alliance and that his alliance with Brian is not a real one but he has been able to play it up because Chuay Ghan has not had to vote out anyone recently. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-02, 02:13 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
We saw what Helen's value system was here. If it was a choice with Clay or Jan, she will vote to take out Clay because he is the "least deserving" of the people remaining. After that, Ted and Jan convince Brian to take out Helen--and then the two of them vote to take out Brian. I don't know if this is how it will happen--but I can see it happening.
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Chrissy gal 1413 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-02, 02:14 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
After Ted won immunity, and the group was walking down the beach, Jan ran over and hugged Ted and they walked down the beach together.
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Chrissy gal 1413 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-02, 07:56 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Is there a Jan/Ted Alliance?" |
Yes, I did catch that, it is being discussed on the previews thread. But, I think it is just Ted trying to cover all of his bases. I still think that the Ted/Jan alliance is the hidden alliance. (However, I have only been right once - I was sure that there was an alliance between Old Kim and Ethan that would take Ethan to the end - so I am no prognosticator)
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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