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"CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
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mindella27 27 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-02, 11:34 PM (EST)
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"CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-02 AT 11:37 PM (EST)

This was probably the most exciting episode of late. We finally see a better picture of the dynamics of this tribe.

First of all Brian is the Alpha male, Clay and Ted are constantly sniffing at his feet. Brian seems to like both equally, but will go with whoever has the best options. But he is also very cocky, his comment about returning to their kingdom made me laugh.

Jan will do whatever the 3 boys say, or it seems so based on tonights episode. Also she will be upset she got a vote, I wonder if she will figure it was Jake, he could always say he voted Penny.

Ted really wanted Penny gone, and she went. He was also pissed he was not at the brunch with Brian. Brian agreed to this boot to appease him for taking Clay to the picnic instead. He still has to keep his options open.

Now Helen shes the wild card. She seemed to be very interested in what Jake had to say, she wants to win BAD!! Based on an interview from Burnett it looks as if Helen may possibly turncoat, but on who (Brian or Clay or both?)

Finally, Clay absolutely detests Jake, and after his speech I was a little turned off myself. I think he is the likely next boot.

Will Jake go next in typical pagong fashion? or will Helen buddy up with him? But who would she bring along, TED??? Maybe Ted knows who told Jake to vote for him and actually believes Jake. Any comments or suggestions appreciated.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED katem 11-22-02 1
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED survivormitsx 11-22-02 2
       I agree jkokoj 11-22-02 13
           RE: I agree evilj9 11-22-02 16
       Jan dajaki 11-22-02 45
   RE: Erin & Ken at TC smrtNsassybnkr 11-22-02 22
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED LilNik8 11-23-02 52
 A Big Surprise and Another? Krautboy 11-22-02 3
   RE: A Big Surprise and Another? Bebo 11-22-02 12
       RE: A Big Surprise and Another? munson 11-22-02 24
   RE: A Big Surprise and Another? ZJ 11-22-02 30
       RE: A Big Surprise and Another? jsanb 11-22-02 32
           Helen may strike soon frisky 11-22-02 35
               RE: Helen may strike soon SteffiGurl 11-23-02 50
   RE: A Big Surprise and Another? dajaki 11-22-02 46
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED ulalame 11-22-02 4
   I agree with your theme... TribalTex29 11-22-02 5
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED SteffiGurl 11-22-02 6
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED munson 11-22-02 26
 CBS Video Archive Reveals Helen & B... ZJ 11-22-02 7
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Skilinopia 11-22-02 8
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED SteffiGurl 11-22-02 10
       RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED ZJ 11-22-02 31
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED JohnMc 11-22-02 17
       pecking order JohnMc 11-22-02 20
           RE: pecking order GuessItRains 11-22-02 23
           RE: pecking order munson 11-22-02 29
               RE: pecking order toddE 11-22-02 37
               RE: pecking order frisky 11-22-02 40
                   RE: pecking order munson 11-22-02 41
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Brownroach 11-22-02 18
       RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED DeadInTheWater 11-22-02 19
       RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Bebo 11-22-02 21
           RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED GuessItRains 11-22-02 27
               RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Brownroach 11-22-02 33
                   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED GuessItRains 11-22-02 36
           RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Krautboy 11-23-02 51
           Helen and Brian snuffing each other big idiot 11-24-02 54
               RE: Helen and Brian snuffing each o... SteffiGurl 11-25-02 55
                   RE: Helen and Brian snuffing each o... alleyb 11-25-02 56
 A different peerspective SurvivinDawg 11-22-02 9
   RE: A different peerspective PhillyBrat 11-22-02 11
       RE: A different peerspective REIGN67 11-22-02 15
   RE: A different peerspective GuessItRains 11-22-02 25
       RE: A different peerspective sticks 11-22-02 34
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED snoocharoo 11-22-02 14
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED toddE 11-22-02 39
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED jsanb 11-22-02 28
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED alleyb 11-22-02 38
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED JohnMc 11-22-02 42
       RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Bebo 11-22-02 43
           RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED jsanb 11-22-02 44
               RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED munson 11-22-02 47
                   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED jsanb 11-22-02 49
   RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED Brownroach 11-22-02 48
 RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED prairieboypicks 11-24-02 53

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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 00:16 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
All of these are good theories and observations, but all I know is that Ken and Erin were giving Jake nice looks. If Brian and his boys are smart, they will get rid of him NEXT !!!!

If he stays to the end, he will have those two votes, and most likely Penny.

The old man is playing. Good for him.


(c) 2002 GeorgiaBelle Creations, Inc. All rights reserved

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survivormitsx 271 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 00:26 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"

Those are good theories, but I have a few of my own:

Clay is next on he chopping block. He was completely out of the loop (or it appeared) on the lines of SJ. Ted, Jan, and Helen (One strong alliance) notices this, and probably have given brian the ulta matum- Clay's strong, either you take him out with us, or your going to be on the block too. I also think Jake voting for Jan wasn't out of spite, I think theres something with them, and he got the o.k. to vote for her to hide some type of agreement. Also, notice Ted and Jan at the IC? There IS something there...but what?


If your happy and you know it, Do the Cooper dance!!

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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 09:42 AM (EST)
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13. "I agree"
I think you have got it survivormitsx. Jake voted for Jan b/c he could without any lashback. I stated on another thread that Clay did not vote with the rest of his tribe leading me to believe he is not as strong as we are being shown.


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evilj9 29 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 10:34 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: I agree"
Clay commented that he didn't like Jake's speech and that was why he was voting that way. Clay knew there would be enough votes for Penny that his sudden vote change wouldn't affect the outcome. When they showed Clay's vote, I immediately counted the remaining CG's and saw there were enough to oust Pennydumb (she's not so Pennywise anymore, is she?)

That doesn't mean it won't cause problems for him, but I think it was along Tom's votes for Clarence. He was trying to make a point.


As always, in Evil, J9

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dajaki 1454 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 05:25 PM (EST)
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45. "Jan"
Jan is never seen plotting and scheming, and she gets almost no camera time. This means one of two things: she knows nothing OR she controls all.

BTW, she looked like an evil smiling clown during the IC last night. Very scary.

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smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 11:48 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Erin & Ken at TC"
I think they were exchanging "knowing" looks between one another trying to figure out wether it would be Penny or Jake. I think they knew that it most certainly would NOT be an original Chewy member. I think it is understood that the 3 Sook Jai on the jury would definitely vote for the last remaining member of their tribe, if given the opportunity. I also think Jake still has a chance to get back into the game if he continues to court Helen. She isn't stupid, she knows she will NOT win if Brian is still in the game. The only question is wether she can convince Jan and Ted to help oust Brian anc Clay?
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LilNik8 195 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-02, 08:48 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
>All of these are good theories
>and observations, but all I
>know is that Ken and
>Erin were giving Jake nice
>looks. If Brian and his
>boys are smart, they will
>get rid of him NEXT
>!!!!
>
>If he stays to the end,
>he will have those two
>votes, and most likely Penny.

I agree. He stayed true to his alliance to the end. He could have voted out Penny for breaking their alliance, but he voted for Jan. I think that was very smart on his part. I also think it was a little foolish to vote out Penny this time. She IS NOT an immunity threat, but Jake def. is. No matter how sneaky she is, she should have stayed for another 3 days and jake needed to go.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 00:39 AM (EST)
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3. "A Big Surprise and Another?"
The title for EP11 is intended to make us THINK that something other than Jake leaving will happen...but logic suggests that Jake is gone next week.

It didn't appear that Brian or Clay trust Jake, and Jan snuffed Penny at Brian's urging, so it seemed clear that Jan will follow Brian's lead. Ted was worried about the "Trojan Horse", but she's gone now, so I have to think that Ted is back in with Brian and Clay. That's 4-2 even if Helen does side with Jake.

First impression is that Jake is gone next week , regardless of what the EP11 Title says.

If Helen wants to make her move, why risk a 3-3 tie? She's better to get rid of Jake first and then team up with Jan and Ted to bump the Elephant boys...3-2. Final 3 Helen, Jan and Ted?



Krautboy

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 08:44 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: A Big Surprise and Another?"
If Helen wants to make her move, why risk a 3-3 tie? She's better to get rid of Jake first and then team up with Jan and Ted to bump the Elephant boys

This vote would be a prime opportunity to use Jake to oust Clay on a 4-2 vote. Helen and Jan can move themselves each up a spot in the pecking order. Ted can feel more secure in his alliance with Brian by eliminating his chief rival.

None of them have anything to lose by using Jake like this. Ted realizes he's third in the Brian/Clay/Ted pecking order - removing Clay would lessen Brian's power and make him more reliant on Ted.

It looks like the women are destined for 4th and 5th, but they could use this chance to make a final 3 pact.

And after eliminating Clay, the CG would still hold a 4-1 advantage and could vote off Jake the first time he loses IC.

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 11:53 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: A Big Surprise and Another?"
I'd agree except the general feeling seems to be that Clay is beatable in the F2 whereas Brian is a stronger contender for the million. Helen admitted as much in her discussion with Jake.

Of course, after ousting Clay, the remaining CG could target Brian AFTER Jake but it makes more sense to hget rid of the bigger IC threat as early as possible.

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ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 12:14 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: A Big Surprise and Another?"
>If Helen wants to make her move, why risk a 3-3 tie?

Simple. If she wins immunity, the tiebreaker will not involve her, be it previous votes or the purple rock.

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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 01:01 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: A Big Surprise and Another?"
No way. She will not go that route. She had the perfect opp to take control of this game by forming a cross tribal alliance, and passed. It ain't gonna happen. Jake is done unless he wins immunity is the ONLY way this games gets shaken up.


Peanut Butter Jeff
"If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."

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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 02:06 PM (EST)
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35. "Helen may strike soon"
I wouldn't count her out yet. She still has time to make a move, and she may do it. MB showed us two attempts by Jake to stir the pot last night.

JAKE went to Ted and told him CG encouraged the vote.
RESULT: Ted is shown running to the Dumbo Duo to snitch on Jake.

JAKE went to Helen and told her the pecking order, et al.
RESULT: Helen is not shown sharing this with the boys upon their return.

She's sitting on it, she's thinking about it. I think she's going to make a move.

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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-02, 04:55 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: Helen may strike soon"
Actually, in Penny's CBS chat, she said that Helen ran right to Brian and Clay in front of her and ratted out jake.
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dajaki 1454 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 05:28 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: A Big Surprise and Another?"
Jan snuffed Penny at Brian's urging,

That's true. She looked in his direction and he signaled her where to go. Stupid little lamb.

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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 00:42 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Arggh! Very annoyed with my computer, as I had a long post ready to go and then it cut off.

So, a quick summary. I also think this episode was very interesting.

Re. Clay, there are several things we can surmise from his vote: 1. He was trying to curry favor with Penny, so on the jury he'll get her vote; 2. he was pulling a Richard Hatch, who used to vote solo from his alliance to signal the next person at risk, or 3. He's arrogant and thought he had control of his tribe, but doesn't and thus is the next at risk.

I thought Brian's winning the RC was totally boneheaded. Unless he can pull a Colby and start winning immunity, he's put himself at risk of being too well liked and too competent at challenges. As it gets down to the final 5 and 4, if he's still there, he'll be axed by his weaker teammates the first chance they get.

Re. the "Importance of Being Eldest" theme -- it still is viable so long as Jan and Jake are in the game. Initially, I was thinking that for the foreshadowing to be viable, it had to be all the older players doing well in the end game. But, the validity of the hint would still be served if Jan and Jake make the final four. Given the Clay vote tonight, even if he thinks he's Richard Hatch, I think he's the "surprise" vote out in E11, and that Brian will follow him to the jury. That would leave a final four of Ted, Helen, Jan and Jake; a projected final three of Helen, Jan and Jake and a final two of the eldest. Just a guess, but it'd be pretty interesting if it turned out that way.

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TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 01:25 AM (EST)
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5. "I agree with your theme..."
The last suggestion you gave about the final 4 being Ted, Helen, Jan and Jake is the most viable and smart way to go and it benefits the majority, that being those 4. You'd want to keep Jan because of her weakness/unthreatedness (sp.), Jake because he is percieved as expendable, and Ted because he is the brooding male who isn't prone to just trusting what is told to him by Brian and Clay. I personally would love to see Clay go next followed by Brian. I liked Clay from the beginning but felt his cockiness because unbearable by this episode. Get over yourself. That RC challenge result sealed their fate in my books.
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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 02:40 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
> 2. he was pulling a Richard Hatch, who used to vote solo from his alliance to signal the next person at risk,

The only time Richard did this was in Episode 1, when he voted for Stacey. That was before the alliance was born.

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 12:02 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Re. Clay, there are several things we can surmise from his vote: 1. He was trying to curry favor with Penny, so on the jury he'll get her vote; 2. he was pulling a Richard Hatch, who used to vote solo from his alliance to signal the next person at risk, or 3. He's arrogant and thought he had control of his tribe, but doesn't and thus is the next at risk.

Or, more simply...4. Plain and simple, Clay was angry enough about Jake's remarks at Tribal Council that he changed his pre-planned vote from Penny to Jake on the spur of the moment. He basically said just that as he revealed his vote.

The remaining CG could see this as an indication that Clay is too unpredictable and emotional to be counted on to see any plan through to the end.

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ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 03:33 AM (EST)
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7. "CBS Video Archive Reveals Helen & Brian's alliance"
There is this video in the archive which is not shown on the show that Helen actually makes some comments about Brian, how he is a sportsman, they have nice friendship, etc.

What Brian actually did was go up to Helen and tell her that she would have been the one to join him in the reward for the elephant ride.

This shows that Brian is having a 3-leg alliance with Clay, Ted and Helen except Jan. This guy is scheming.

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Skilinopia 108 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 05:32 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
If the Chewies do not vote of Jake soon it could well spell a come from behind win for Jake. However, it is too early to tell whether Jake would be able to win immunity in the subsequent weeks. 16 more days which is 2 weeks can take a toil on the human body, from the looks of it however, Helen, Brian, Ted and even Clay are still in the physical shape to last another 2 weeks or so, but certainly not Jan and Jake.

Jan and Jake being seen as vulnerable may give them a certain degree of safty.

There seems to be an unspoken alliance between Jan and Helen. Although Helen has at times talk degradingly of Jan's actions, there seems to be an agreement between the two.

Anyway, this by far has been one of the better Survivors. In the sense, for once there are still no definate pairings (if that is what MB wants us to think). Ironically, Chuay Gan could be compared to Pagong in a certain extent as it still seems to be a close knit group and up to this point, there is certainly no need for them to form alliances among themselves to boot out the others.

Thinking back, after they were reduced to five, they have Survived 18 days without having to decide whether they should turn against one another. As a result, not only do they have a sense of invincibility, there would probably be this sense of cammandre among them which would make it even more interesting to see who would be the odd one out when the time comes.

In the sense, this Survivor is good as there are hardly any followers as compared to the previous survivors. Apart from Jan, who could be seen as adopting the UDR strategy or is just a follower of Brian, the rest pull their own weight.

Brian is obviously the best schemer of the game who has everything planned out before him. Aparently, the policy he is employing is not to form alliance blocks but alliance pairings. So far it has shown that he has made a total of 3 pair alliance. His first is with Ted. Although Ted may be disturb at the may that Brian is courting Clay, Ted doesn't seem to be the kind of person who easily changes his perception of someone. In addition, as some has pointed out, Brian is still tight with Ted as he decided to go with Ted's decision to go with Penny.

From the interviews with Helen and her opinions of Brian, it seems that Helen and Brian is another pair that has a good friendship of some sort. Not exactly the Tina and Colby kind of relationship but one that is secure enough to prevent Helen from voting against him until it is necessary.

Brian teams up with Clay because he sees Clay as a threat. However, ultimately Brian knows that his control over his tribe cannot be shaken. NOt by Clay certainly.

Clay is seem to be plotting, but is really rather harmless. Because he still does not have the control over the rest of his tribe mates either through friendship or alliance.

The bigges surprise could still be Helen. In a video it shows her discussing Jake action with Jan and Ted. NO Brian around. THis could be crucial that if Jan goes along with her, all she needs is a confused and nervous Clay to turn agianst Brian. (After all Clay confessed that he would most likely NOT win against Brian) By winning Clay and Jan over to her side she has a 3-2 advantage. She may just take the game.

Jake should be voted off the next episode. Becuase the Chewies are smart enough to know that by Jake making to the Jury he would get an almost certain 3 votes and all he needs is one more from the Chewis to win. This is too big a risk for any Chewy to take.

Anyway, Ted does seem to know how to play the game as well. So far, we have seen some plotting by various people. Shii Ann, Penny, Ghandia who tried some strategies of their own.

Who know, maybe Jan is just playing dumb and is really plotting away. So this season out of 16 there are around 9 strategist, a few followers, a few weirdos and 2 who never had a chance to get into the game proper.

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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 07:07 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
>16 more days which is 2 weeks can take a toil on the human body, from the looks of it however, Helen, Brian, Ted and even Clay are still in the physical shape to last another 2 weeks or so, but certainly not Jan and Jake.

There are only 9 days left in the game.

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ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 12:20 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
I was thinking about this thing... If for whatever reason Chuay Gahn does not kick out Jake or he wins a couple of immunities to make it to the final 4, he could well win that IC which is normally a trivia about previously voted out survivors(an assumption). Seeing that Sook Jai has more members on the jury, Jake is more likely to know their information and it does give him an advantage in this challenge. Just look at Vecepia in S4.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 11:13 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
<Thinking back, after they were reduced to five, they have Survived 18 days without having to decide whether they should turn against one another. As a result, not only do they have a sense of invincibility, there would probably be this sense of cammandre among them which would make it even more interesting to see who would be the odd one out when the time comes.>

The only other time that a true "Pagong" took place was in S1. In S1, there was a pecking order, and Sean was #5 because of his alphabet voting scheme. At 4, it was a tie between the guys and the girls, to be broken by the defector Kelly. All that to say that there is definitely a CG pecking order. What it is is hard to determine because, as so eloquently stated by Skilinopia, most of the tribe are leaders instead of followers (save Jan, but she's still got her redeeming qualities).

<Jake should be voted off the next episode. Becuase the Chewies are smart enough to know that by Jake making to the Jury he would get an almost certain 3 votes and all he needs is one more from the Chewis to win. This is too big a risk for any Chewy to take.>

Jake is a major jury threat. He has all 3 SJ's in his back pocket. Erin and Ken are shoe in's, and Jake was smart to throw a vote at Jan, his hand-holding buddy, which did 2 things:

1 - kept his tie to Penny even though she defected
2 - he can go to Jan just like he did to Ted and explain his vote. This can help him not just stay on the island longer if he can align w/Jan and Helen (presumably the back side of the pecking order). If he makes F2, he still has Jan's vote.

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 11:37 AM (EST)
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20. "pecking order"
Since this was a separate thought, I figured I'd include it as a separate post.

From the challenges and TC, I think we definitely see a pecking order, but it is very confusing.

6 - Jake - WAY too much of a jury threat. This may be even more important than the fact that he isn't part of the CG alliance

The rest is very convoluted.

Clay voted outside the group, and may not be as tight w/everyone as he thinks. Brian did take him on the reward, but he didn't want to have to pick him. He was totally faking his falling off the balance beam. He didn't want to win, though since he did, he played it right by taking the 2nd place guy, as well as the guy who pulled him over the wall and the one that he paired up w/at the beginning.

Ted also appears outside the Brian/Clay alliance. What we saw in the RC was that both Brian and Ted chose Clay to go over. Clay was smart to choose Brian because he is lighter, but we definitely saw the first choice over Ted.

Helen and Jan appear to be outside of the "boys group", but the boys group isn't an alliance. They could pull off a Neleh/Paschal if they align themselves w/Jake and Ted. This would get them past places 4 and 5.

I'm not sure if the challenges revealed alliances, or just made them more confusing.

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11-22-02, 11:52 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: pecking order"
I don't know what the real pecking order is, but I'm fairly confident what the order was that Jake told Helen which Helen said she had also heard from "other sources."

7. Jake
6. Penny
5. Ted
4. Jan
3. Helen
Final 2: Brian/Clay

Logic behind this: Jake states that he doesn't think Helen can beat Brian and that he doesn't know if she can beat Clay. He must be comparing her to these people because he is positing a final 3 scenario for Helen where, even if she wins immunity, she may not win and she'd have to win immunity to break up Brian/Clay. Ergo, in the pecking order she is third.

We also know that at least Clay and probably Brian told Jake that the first Chewie to be voted out would likely be Ted. I doubt any new info came to Jake between Day 27 and Day 29 to change that theory. By process of elimination, Jan must be fourth.

Of course, the order has already changed since Ted demanded that Penny be voted out before Jake. What to make of that, I don't really know....

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11-22-02, 12:09 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: pecking order"
6 - Jake - WAY too much of a jury threat. This may be even more important than the fact that he isn't part of the CG alliance.

I understand that Jake would get the three Sookie votes, but would any of the ousted CG on the jury vote for the "Snake" over a fellow CG - even one that participated directly in their ouster?

I don't know....

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11-22-02, 02:46 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: pecking order"
Ted would in a second, if Brian doesn't take him to final 2.


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40. "RE: pecking order"
I can see that happening, munson. If there were 2 CG's and Jake in the final three, and one of the CG's chose to take Jake to the finals instead of the other CG, that could influence the CG's on the jury. I could see how this "traitor" could tick off at least one Chewy who may feel committed to a CG winning the game.
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11-22-02, 03:51 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: pecking order"
Thanks, guys. You're absolutely right.
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11-22-02, 11:15 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
>>Although Ted may be disturb at the may that Brian is courting Clay, Ted doesn't seem to be the kind of person who easily changes his perception of someone.<<

Good post, Skil, but I disagree somewhat with the above -- I think Ted can change his opinion of people very quickly. Back when Ghandia continued her shenanigans after Ted had apologized, Ted completely froze her out, which set the stage for her to be voted out next. If Ted does get wise to what Brian and Clay are doing, he'd remove Brian from the game in a heartbeat, because he would consider Brian a backstabber.

The questions are: will Ted at least get wise enough to remove Clay, and how smart are Helen and Jan? The scenario Bebo posted above is the perfect next move for the three of them: use Jake to get rid of Clay and then Brian. This is especially ideal for Helen and Jan because they can dump Jake after that, or, if Jake wins IC, vote with Jake to dump Ted.

I will be very pissed off at Helen if she doesn't go to Jake and set this in motion, because she's clearly a smart player. But I fear Brian has snowed these people. Penny said on the early show that Helen ran to Brian and Clay when they came back from the reward to tell them what had been going on with Jake. Was she really too dumb to keep her mouth shut?

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11-22-02, 11:22 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
>>>
> Penny said on the
>early show that Helen ran
>to Brian and Clay when
>they came back from the
>reward to tell them what
>had been going on with
>Jake. Was she
>really too dumb to keep
>her mouth shut?

Most likely. The CBS video archives has a video of her talking about the canoe ride and Jake's talk of alliances to Ted and Jan while Brian and Clay were away. She doesn't come across being likely to take Jake up on his offer. I think Brian does have all of them snowballed. Check out Helen's video where she talks about her "unspoken friendship" with Brian and how he came up to her after the RC challenge and told her "H, it would have been you" (referring to that he would have taken her). He has all of them strung along pretty nicely.

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21. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Was she really too dumb to keep her mouth shut?

I'll ask a question in response to this question.

Why did Helen snuff Brian's torches twice during the IC? Was it to try and deflect suspicion from a B/H alliance, or was it a message that she would participate in taking Brian out?

OK, that was two questions. And I'll add another one...

Did the IC again succeed in showing a pecking order, exposing Clay and Brian as targets of Jan, Helen, and Ted?


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27. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
I don't know Bebo. I think that Helen right now thinks that she is the third wheel of a Brian/Clay alliance, needing only to win immunity to beat Clay out in the finals. Unless she gets a better offer, she will probably stick with that.

I can't make too much of Helen's snuff choices. Both Ted and Jan were clearly going after Penny and Jake. Here's who Helen snuffed:

Clay, Ted, Brian, Brian (out), Jan, Jan (out), Ted (out)

I doubt Helen was trying to send a "message" to Brian. If so she would have taken him out sooner than she did.

If I had to compare Helen to anybody right now it would be Kelly G. We heard Kelly scheming all the time but she was never really a part of any solid alliance, though those were forming all around her. I'm not sure Helen has any solid allies, and I'm also not sure she wants any.

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33. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-02 AT 01:05 PM (EST)

I tend to agree with everything you say here, Rains.

In confessional Brian talked about how what he says to Ted is one thing, what he says to Clay is another, and he will have to see which situation works out better for him.

He didn't say anything about Helen so I don't think he considers himself to have any kind of Final 2, 3, or 4 agreement with her.

What I found curious was the "pecking order" conversation. Jake said a pecking order had been revealed to him, and then Helen said she had heard the same thing. What is the pecking order and who did Helen hear it from?

I have to think it was Clay, who is telling everyone that they will be in the Final 4. He probably told Helen that Ted and Jan are going first. So Helen may be hanging her game-plan on that and then winning final immunity, as you say.

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36. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Agreed with everything you say Roach, and I think you are right on that the "pecking order" Helen heard and Jake has heard or inferred came from Clay. I've speculated elsewhere that the order Jake described was likely Jake, Penny, Ted, Jan, Helen, leaving Brian and Clay as the Final 2. We saw misleading snippets of the conversation, but I'm sure Jake tried to persuade Helen that she couldn't beat either Brian or Clay in a final and therefore needed to get rid of both of them before the last TC.

Helen's a smart cookie and probably realized she'd be in just as bad of shape heading into a final TC with Jake and Penny. But I'm honestly not sure who Helen could beat in a Final. What her next move is...that's anybody's guess.


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11-23-02, 01:01 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Bebo: I think you're definately on to something!

There's lots of evidenve (as discussed in the Ted/Jan Alliance thread) that seems to confirm that Ted and Jan have had an alliance from the beginning.

Why did Brian/Clay and Helen bow to the wishes of Ted? They didn't...they gave in to the wishes of Ted AND Jan. Ted and Jan, together, represented potential swing votes. Allienate them and it's 4-3 with Brian, Clay or Helen on the short end...Brian and Helen compromised; Clay didn't...and it will cost him.

Strong Alliances:

Ted / Jan
Brian / Clay
Brian / Ted

Weaker Alliances:

Helen / Jan
Ted / Helen
Brian / Helen
Jan / Brian

Potential Alliances:

Jake / Helen

Looks like Ted and Jan have a good shot at getting to the F2.

Possible Boot Order:

Jake : 5-1
Clay : 3-2 Ted/Jan/Helen vs Brian/Clay
Brian: 3-1 (If Brian wins Immunity Helen goes before Brian)
Helen: 2-1 Ted wins immunity and takes Jan

F2 : Ted and Jan



Krautboy

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54. "Helen and Brian snuffing each other"
I think Helen and Brian (if strongly AND secretly allied) would know better than to reveal their alliance. When I saw them snuff each other, each gave the other a big smile which I interpreted as "good move".

I think that the fact they snuffed each other AND smiled in such a strange way indicated:
1) They are strongly allied
2) They are secretly allied

The secret aspect of this is key. There would not be a reason to snuff each other as allies unless no one else knows they are allied. I think each likes the idea of being in a F2 with the other.

Does this suggest they are the F2? No, it only means that this is where they are at this point in time and may change within the next few TCs.

How does this help spoil the game? I try to keep my predictions short-sighted, so I'd only interpret that Brian and Helen are safe for TC#11 (if you believe they are strongly and secretly allied), because Brian will steer the TC vote away from Helen and vice versa.

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55. "RE: Helen and Brian snuffing each other"
In E9, when they watched Brian's video from CC, Helen made the statement that IF she were against Brian, the image of new cars would be enough to vote him out. Now I realize that might just mean that she is with him for Chuay Gahn's sake, I still keep that comment fresh in my mind. MB may have given us that on purpose for two reasons, one of them being a bond between Helen and Brian. He might show us this if the speculation of a Jan/Ted alliance is correct. Helen did seem pretty respectful of Brian when she talked about the Ted-Ghandia situation.

Just keeping a supposed clue alive.

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11-25-02, 07:27 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Helen and Brian snuffing each other"
Hmmm...maybe Helen has a different take on what Brian's apparent wealth means to her. Maybe she sees it as potential ammunition to present to the Jury when Helen & Brian reach the final 2.
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9. "A different peerspective"
While we SAW Ted wanting Penny out, I believe that the vote for her was dictated by the WOMEN of CG.

We've seen before that Helen and Jan were mocking Penny. I can just see Helen seething inwardly over Penny's cheerleader-type flirting with the guys.

Jake gave Helen a very plausible offer to vote with him. Jan might have also, and turned the tide against the CG guys. But Helen stayed put, possibly giving her no better than 5th place. Why? Partly because Jan couldn't be trusted to turn, but also IMHO because Brian and Clay agreed with her and Ted that Penny should go.

P.S. I agree about Jake. When I heard his speech, I thought "that would've made me vote him out!"...


Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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11-22-02, 07:19 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: A different peerspective"
Dawg I totally agree with what you say about Jake and his speech, I told myself way back when. That when you talk too much in TC (when you are in the minority) you will be voted out.. (Shii-ann case and point..)


As for my own theories I think they (Jan, Helen, Ted and Brian) Saw that Penny can backstab anyone in the blink of an eye. Everyone saw how Penny went RIGHT to Jake's Torch to snuff it out (At the challange).

I know I wouldn't want to be trusting someone who just backstabed someone they have been living with for 28 days +...


Also on a side note.. Isn't it interesting that Jake's "tribe" lost however he is still in the game.. The team that Jake hand picked and he will be the last on to go.. I just wonder if the same would happen on CG's side of things.

And then there were none....

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15. "RE: A different peerspective"
The time to make a move is now. Whether MB chooses to show it to us or not there is a split in CG. There is a pecking order. We have heard Brian's comments and Clay's arrogance and it wil come back and bite them in the end.

We are shown Ted contemplating constantly now. We see him sitting alone, or are shown his face every time he has gotten screwed over. If the guy was to dumb to figure out what was going on he would be gone allready.

We have heard Brian's comments, about the women. Even though they were not privy to it. That type of attitude shines through, and Jan and Helen know it. They know they are destined to go right after Jake.

This is the time for them to make a move. They will align with Jake, and try and pull Ted in. It would be in Ted's best interest to side with them. If he doesn't the vote is 3 to 3, they have a 50-50 shot of coming out the majority and Ted would be gone. There is one thing I am sure of, Ted feels betrayed and he blames Clay for it. I think it's Clay's time to go.

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11-22-02, 11:58 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: A different peerspective"
Dawg I disagree slightly that it was the women who dictated the Penny vote. I think it was Ted and Jan, not Helen.

Here's a transcript from last night's show.
Helen: I think the snake has to go.
Brian: Yep. Me too.
Clay: Who?
Brian: The snake has to go.
Clay: Who? Jake?
Brian: Uh-huh. Number one.
Helen: (Nods and holds up one finger)

Helen, Brian, and Clay wanted to vote out Jake. Clay even did vote for Jake. Why wasn't Jake voted out. Well we know Ted wanted Penny out. My guess is that Jan did too. Whether Ted and Jan are secretly allied (as I've speculated) or just both vocal I don't know. But I doubt that Helen was pushing hard for a Penny boot.

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11-22-02, 01:57 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: A different peerspective"
So Brian and Helen never actually admitted the snake was Jake? It seems from this conversation that Clay is the one who is out of the loop. Helen and Brian were discreetly telling each other they were voting for Penny, but Clay was fooled.
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14. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
One surprise...Jake wins IC and another surprise...Bye bye Brian or Clay.

What would be more exciting than a complete shift in power. Jake could go from being the prey to being the predator and in the process oust the alpha male and his biggest threat. Jake could also win IC and focus on Clay because of his manipulation and backstabbing which leaves brian in a lurch and having to quickly shuffle back into Ted's good graces.

Just random thoughts please feel free to take this ball and run with it.



Snoocharoo

"you went to school where you were taught to fear and to obey. Be cheerful, fit in or someone might think you're weird"

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11-22-02, 03:11 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
I hope that is true. So often the players foolishly fail to act on their own behalf (Lamber, Mamakim though she miraculously made it anyway, etc etc) while we watch and wish they would realize they are out of the loop and take some action. The only time the players on the fringes did anything about it was Neleh. I can't even include Pappy because Neleh practically had to beat him into submission to save his own butt. I wish Helen would do something intelligent--she seems to be smart--but I'm not holding my breath.


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11-22-02, 12:08 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
I disagree that the alliance structure of CG was exposed in the IC. It was somewhat exposed at RC, but then Jake and Penny blew it. What they needed to do was get every question wrong like Kathy did in S4- and let the tribe show itself the pecking order. Of course Jake & Penny would be the first to go, but let the game go slower, and it exposes itself. Especially taking out Brian and Clay early was a major mistake. Helen winning was the perfect tonic for Brian & Ted, it pacified Helen into thinking she is NOT #4 or #5 in the CG alliance.

Jake's only hope NOW is to win IC and force CG to split up, and then Jake can hold onto an arbitor position. Otherwise because of the risk of Jake has with 3 guaranteed votes in a final vote, he will be taken out next with Jan & Clay soon to follow and Brain and Ted in the finals.

Peanut Butter Jeff
"If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."

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38. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
There are some interesting clips this week on the CBS website that further clarify the CGs and their actions.

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor5/show/episode10/s5video.shtml

In "Helen on Brian's decision", Helen discusses her friendship with Brian, and how Brian apologized to her for choosing Clay to go on the Reward. So Helen is in tighter with Brian than they've shown on the show (or at least Helen THINKS she is in tighter than we've seen). She also mentions how torn up she would have been to have to take JAN along on the Reward if she had won (since they ended up as a team)--showing that there really isn't an close bond between the women of CG.

In "Tribe discusses Jake's actions", Helen reports to Ted and Jan all about her discussion with Jake on the boat. Jan reveals Jake's early attempt to woo her, which she quickly snubbed.

In "Clay on Penny's actions", Clay reveals that he knew that Penny was going to be voted out, and he wanted to win her vote on the Jury. He even went so far as to describe to Penny what to look for on his vote--a double underline under Jake's name to prove his honesty.

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-02, 04:21 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
<In "Clay on Penny's actions", Clay reveals that he knew that Penny was going to be voted out, and he wanted to win her vote on the Jury. He even went so far as to describe to Penny what to look for on his vote--a double underline under Jake's name to prove his honesty.>

This is clever on Clay's part, but with Penny sitting by with a shower, food in her stomach, and time to think, don't you think she'll figure out that she's been hoodwinked. Besides that, Jake also proved his loyalty by NOT voting for her also and throwing a vote to Jan.

I think Penny's vote is still for Jake - should he make F2. We can be more than confident that he has Ken's vote, and more than likely Erin's also. Jake did vote out Erin, but he had to vote out someone and they were all heartbroken about that fact.

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43. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
I think Penny's vote is still for Jake - should he make F2. We can be more than confident that he has Ken's vote, and more than likely Erin's also. Jake did vote out Erin, but he had to
vote out someone and they were all heartbroken about that fact.

Oh, they will definitely all vote for Jake over a CG in the F2. What better revenge on the group responsible for their ouster than to have a Sook Jai win it all?


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11-22-02, 04:39 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
and exactly why Jake will be the next one to go.

Peanut Butter Jeff
"If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."

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47. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Uh, should be the next to go.

Of course, one IC win and things that will happen, don't.

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11-22-02, 07:39 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Munson, I agree with that. I still think a Brian- Ted final two is where S5 is going unless the right person wins immunity to stop the obvious path. Jake winning immunity next IC could really shake things up. I do think Jake hurt his cause a lot by taking Brian & Clay out in the last IC and not exposing the pecking order like Kathy let happen(she intentionally missed every question to let the Rotu 4 have more of an opp to exose their pecking order). That said I think CG was completely aware of the Rotu4 mistake and attempted to avoid that mistake, but Jake made it too easy for them.


Peanut Butter Jeff
"If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."

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11-22-02, 06:29 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
>>In "Tribe discusses Jake's actions", Helen reports to Ted and Jan all about her discussion with Jake on the boat. Jan reveals Jake's early attempt to woo her, which she quickly snubbed.<<

So Jake DID already speak to Jan, and she wasn't interested. And Penny said that Helen told Clay and Brian all about her boat conversation with Jake, so we can assume Helen decided against Jake's proposition as well.

It looks like a Helen-Jan-Ted-Jake coup is not in the cards. Too bad, that would have been really cool. Jake is toast next unless he wins IC.

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prairieboypicks 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

11-24-02, 01:11 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: CHEWIE ALLIANCES REVEALED"
Final 3...I was thinking Brian, Ted, Helen...But last eposide (November 21) I think Ted, Helen, Jan. Clay is the next to go...Jan will win immunity in the final 3, and will pick Ted for the final 2...Jan will win because she is so "gon darn nice"...I love it when she gets drunk...She's hilarious, who can not help but like her...I loved when she drank the beer and said she " needs a nipple for this thing"
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