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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
=========================================== Another week, another pick logic summary blatantly stolen from sleeeve...
With the merge, tribes usually stick together for at least one vote while they get their bearings. Yes... the tribes have been living together for six days. No... this will not be enough to drive a wedge into CG's relations... if CG was going to split up, they would not be hinting at it all week in the previews... they would let it be a shock when it happened.
Therefore, it's safe to assume that we'll lose another SJ.
We have the choice between sweet, attractive, non-challenge-threat Penny, strong, potentially-challenge-threat Ken, and strong, in-a-secret-alliance-with-Brian Jake.
Given this limited amount of info, it makes sense that Brian would want to keep Jake around to ensure the least liklihood of a CG alliance fracture (since he appears to be a leader of the largest faction). With Jake in his power, *if* there's a chance of a betrayal next episode, Brian could still draw Jake in.
Between Ken and Penny, Ken is gone unless he wins immunity. Thus, I pick Ken as this weeks boot, with Penny as first alternate, and Jake as second alternate.
For RC, I think that it will be a pairs challenge (as we've seen in every 8-member episode since S2). We have vidcaps of a physical challenge with Helen and Penny running head-to-head with Brian standing behind Helen, and Ted standing behind Penny. Given this, I think that we can assume that Brian/Helen are partnered as are Ted/Penny. Regardless of whether this is one of the prelim. rounds, or the final race, the other teams would be drawn from Clay/Jake/Jan/Ken. Given just about any pairing in this group, it's unlikely that anyone could beat the pairs that we KNOW. Therefore, I choose Brian and Helen to take the RC with Ted and Penny as alternates.
What he said. Seriously, logic says one of Ken, Jake, or Penny is gone today and Ken is the logical pick. Scheming Penny is the next most likely selection. "One of the boys" wanna-be Jake is the least likely to be gone. KEN is the official bootee prediction with PENNY the alternative.
As far the reward challenge, not only is there the vidcap evidence of the race teams, there's also the merged buff vidcap shown when Brian is apparently shown viewing his tape from home -- a clip seemingly different from the rest of the scenes involving the tapes.
BRIAN will win the reward challenge, with HELEN also likely his co-winner (Spoiler Island note -- as in previous seasons, for reward challenges in which a two person team wins, full points will be awarded to any player who selects either of the winners.)
As far as who wins immunity -- frankly as long is it's not Ken, who cares (well, except for all the Spoiler Island game players that is 
) The making-Helen-look-vulnerable-the-week-before-she-wins-immunity idea sounds just as good to me as anything else, so HELEN is the immunity challenge winner pick.
-SB
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