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"Sook Jai Wins"
Ronii29 10 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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11-13-02, 09:15 AM (EST)
 
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"Sook Jai Wins" |
Paratrooper has had it posted on his site for quite a while now that he believes a SJ is the final survivor this year. If this is the case then that would make the jury dominantly CG (4 CG, 3 SJ). We know CG does not trust Penny, therefore the odds of CG choosing her as the winner over someone from their own tribe is far-fetched. Then we have Ken, who we have all seen as a threat to CG for awhile now and is probably on his way out. That would only leave Jake as the final SJ. CG all seem pretty close right now and I can't imagine why they would choose a SJ over a CG at this point. So that leads me to believe that CG splits sometimes soon and it starts getting ugly. I can't see Jan backstabbing anyone and I can't really see Ted straying from the pack. That would only leave Helen, Clay and Brian. Any ideas on this?
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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-02, 09:28 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
I too doubt it would be Penny. I think something will happen with Brian and Ted's alliance, since revealed alliances usually do not succeed. If it were Jake and Ted in the finals, I can see it going to Jake. Jan & Helen aren't Ted's biggest fans because of the Ghandia incident. Remember they targeted Clay because Ted was the stronger one. Then of course, Helen booted Ghandia to avoid the tie. I also don't think Clay likes Ted as much as it appears, but he's just riding it while he can. We see the Sookies as really being down, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-13-02, 10:49 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-13-02 AT 10:53 AM (EST)He recently kissed Helen, and then there is that new cryptic comment about the tribe speaking/spoken, and her vote for him was on Day 3, wereas Jan's was later in the game, so Clay and Helen may form an agreement together out of necessity, not because they want to be a group, but they see whats coming down river. And try to use Jake/other SJ to change the direction that river is flowing. I agree he may not "want" to join with Helen, or Jan due to previous votes. But what if he "has" to. Meaning if (and big IF) he thinks he can use some SJs to gain an upper hand at CG. This is all dependent on a Brian/Ted alliance coming to the surface at CG. If Clay feels he is odd man out of the Boys Club, then I can see him joining with Helen/Jan, and Jake and the other SJs would be stupid not to join up with the larger faction of CG. So you are left with Helen/Clay/Jan/Jake/Penny?? as the new gang of 5. Then Brian or Ted could remain if they vote out Ken first and then one of them wins immunity and Clay now chooses to vote out Penny as the numbers would still be with Helen/Clay/Jan/Jake. So Brian and Ted can still be around to lose more weight, but a power struggle at CG leads to a SJ making it to the end out of the need to control the votes agianst a "revealed alliance" Then Clay/Helen battle it out with Ted/Brian for control of Jakes vote. This is very tenuous though and as stated depends on Clay thinking the cards are stacked against him. Requiring him to re-think who he needs to be with. edited to say... My reasons for this is the fact that something is going to have to happen to Ted/Brian soon. 
Never Let Them See You Bleed
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-02, 11:07 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
This is very tenuous though and as stated depends on Clay thinking the cards are stacked against him. Requiring him to re-think who he needs to be with. Maybe Jan will be proven wrong and Clay does forgive. Seems to me, though, that he's destined for third place, barring a victory in the final IC. Here are some iterations: - Brian/Ted/Clay - Ted would take Brian, given his pledge. Brian would, IMHO, make a fatal mistake if he didn't take Ted. If Brian chose Clay over Ted, he'd lose Ted's vote, since Ted would see that as a betrayal. And if Brian took Ted to the final IC, he could use the Ghandia incident to try and sway Jan and Helen to vote for him over Ted. - Helen/Jan/Clay - Helen's already voted against Clay once because she thought he didn't need the money, so I think she'd take Jan to the finals. Jan has already supported gender lines once, and I could see Helen working that argument to sway Jan to keep her should Jan win final IC. - Clay/any 2 SJ - If Clay were able to ally with 2 SJ to make a final three, then that would put 4 CG on the jury. A SJ may think they could beat Clay if any CG felt betrayed, but may not want to risk a vote along tribal lines. After all, in a game, there is some pride if your teammates do well, and some CG may vote for Clay even if he stabbed them in the back because they don't want to admit that SJ outwitted them in the end. This was avoided in S4, because thanks to the twist, Vee had been a pre-merge tribe member to every member of the jury at some point, so tribal pride wasn't as big of an issue. This last argument I see as the weakest of the three. We've seen in prior versions that the jury members typically choose to reward the player they thought played best, regardless of like/dislike/tribal loyalty, or they choose to vote against the player seen to betray them.
  
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-02, 11:13 AM (EST)
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6. "Betrayal is key" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-13-02 AT 11:14 AM (EST)Three of the first four Survivors went to a 4-3 vote. In each case, the swing vote was cast by someone who felt betrayed by a tribemate. S1: Susan's rat and snake speech and vote against Kelly's betrayal. S2: Jerri voting for Tina and against Colby's betrayal. S4: John voting for Vee and against Neleh's betrayal. If there's a Suckie vs. a Chewy in the final 2, it only takes one betrayal vote to give the win to the Suckie.
- If Jan/Helen/Clay ever ally with and SJ to get rid of Ted/Brian, then there's two potential betrayal votes there.
- If Brian ever votes against Ted, there's a potential betrayal vote.
- Clay doesn't forgive. There's a potential betrayal vote.
- Helen or Jan might vote for Penny over a Chewy male in a potential betrayal vote. edited because I messed up a tribe reference
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TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-14-02, 06:55 PM (EST)
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28. "I agree with all but..." |
the only difference is, on Survivor I, the Susan/Kelly betrayal was different because they were choosing between two members of their own tribe. If it came down to Helen/Clay/Jan and Helen went out first, she would definitely vote for Jan over Clay, because as much of a nut as Jan is, she's a sweet nut, and a teacher, AKA; broke. (disregarding Clay's bankruptcy info)I think it will be impossible for the final three to be Clay, Ted, and Brian, because Clay is not stupid enough to go along with two, knowing he'd be ousted in the end (barring Clay's immunity chances). It would be as stupid as John, Robert, Tammy and Zoe showing their true colors before their ultimate demise if CG doesn't at least boot two of the remaining SJ members before heading to the final 5. We'll see. Please don't let Clay or Penny win. Uck.
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NTK 109 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-13-02, 11:18 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
Clay may sense that he is at best third in the trio with Ted, Brian. Add to that Brian seeming to court Jake. He may feel the need to align with others.Helen is shrewd enough to know she may also be near the bottom of the pecking order. Not sure at all what Jan may be thinking. They can still get rid of Ken this week and then make their move. It may be adventageous because one more immunity threat would be gone. Whether they would keep Penny or Jake would be interesting. Penny may seem iffy, but Jake was awesome in the underwater breathing challenge. I still can't tell if Ken is really saving himself for individual challlenges or helpless. He hasn't shown many talents yet. Can he even save himself this week when he would need it most? It is hard to believe he couldn't go on an immunity run. If a Sook wins the final vote, there has to be some Chewie hard feelings. I don't see this if they get rid of all the Sooks and then have to turn inward.
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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-13-02, 11:25 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
I stated the following in another thread yesterday:"Maybe the hidden alliance is Clay, Helen and Jan. Clay may have been looking to court Shii and Jake so they would have 5.
Clay has to know that Brian/Ted are an IC threat. Sure we have seen him bashing about batty Jan and the Kooky Cook but that does not mean he doesn't like them or have an alliance." This goes along with Q and Bebo's theories. 
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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-13-02, 12:15 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
What we know is this group is playing the game more than any other thus far from comments we have. We know Helen, Brian, and Penney are playing the game for sure.Reason's why SJ men would want to go after Ted/Brian alliance. Individual Immunity threats. If you don't get rid of them early maybe stuck with them till the end and get bitten. Clay must be seen to everyone as the one who stands alone in CG. We've seen Ted/Brian going off in the boat together.
In the beginning we saw Helen going to Brian with the Ghandia story. Is Brian playing Ted and Helen? Seems to have a soft spot for Crazy Jan as well.
These are just observations and may just be editing. However what it suggests to me is that if SJ is playing the game and Cg is playing the game they all know what needs to happen. CG could just paong the Heck out of SJ, but why not to improve your spot a bit look at the SJ Perhaps Ken, Jake, and Penney get the 2 factions to believe that they will help them get rid of the others. Maybe Penney convinces Helen, Jan, and Clay that they could force a tie. If all SJ make a pack with the CG's and eliminate themselves from the chopping block. Once the other group of CG's sees they have been played, it could become really exciting. This is all speculation and I hope it make sense. Let me know you thoughts.
hrc2u
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-02, 01:48 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
But do the Sookies realize it is a Ted/Brian alliance? We hear Jake and Ken talking and mentioning a Brian/Clay alliance.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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11-13-02, 02:10 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
hi tanyafrommd, welcome to the boards.paratrooper has just been around for a long time and has had lots of vidcap analysis. He is a reliable spoiler.
Some people rely on him more than others. He is analyzing things very well and some believe that he is tapewatcherb65 who correctly predicted Tina and Ethan winning half way through the show.
IF a sook jai wins, it will be Jake. He has been edited as fair, UTR and no one has said one negative thing about him. He hasn't been negative either.
Both Penny and Ken have been negative at times and have had negative comments thrown at them. This leads me to believe Jake can be the only one out of sook jai to possibly win. The winner (except for richard) is usually shown in a positive light. They generally never have negative comments directed towards them and rarely speak bad of others. Penny: she has dissed the CG men, and trashed Shii Ann Ken: Dissed Jed in the beginning. Complained about the Piss in the cave. I am sure jake did to but they didn't show it..hmmmm... Jake: although he questioned jans picks and said his tribe knew nothing, he has been pretty diplomatic. He had a statement that stood out as strange. ie:why did they put it in there.
The statement was after his hat got blown off: "I don't wanna lose it".
There were statements just like that which pointed to VEE winning S4. During to water challenges Jeff Probst said "Vee swim "back to the beach". It looked and sounded like a voice over. He ONLY said it with vee and said it on two occasions. Since the Promos all were about being "back to the beach" I thought this was odd. It turned out that it pointed to her win.
Look for out of place comments like this from Jake. Clay: although I like him and think he is funny others find him negative. He disses others and doesn't show respect. He may be destined for 3rd. Helen: I love her and want her to win she cracks me up. But she was shown in a negative light last episode and during this stretch of the show that is not a good sign. Brian: He is the schemer, the schemer hasn't won since rich. Jeff, Lex, and John were all schemers and got eliminated. He is being portrayed as sexist therefore another nail in his coffin. Ted: Nice guy, strong and UTR. But his constant talk about his alliance is a red herring he will go sooner or later. Jan: even if she makes the final 2 she will lose just like Kim J. "I got a kiss from Clay Jordan, oh my god am I queen for a day" - Helen Glover
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-02, 06:08 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-15-02 AT 04:06 PM (EST)Ivory, I agree that if a Sook Jai wins it will be Jake, but I think his character is undergoing a change now that we are seeing more of him. We heard a lot of talk from Shii Ann and others about Penny being manipulative, but we've not overtly seen this. But we ARE seeing psychological manipulation from Jake if you watch closely. The discussion of whether the bootee should be told they were going in advance is a good example. Jake asked the question, which had the subtle effect of excluding him from boot candidacy in the minds of the others, IMO. Notice that Penny, Erin, and Ken all answered the question, but Jake didn't volunteer whether or not HE would want to know, and no one asked him. This was on the tail of his crying jag where he blamed himself for SJ's defeat at IC, leading to Erin's sympathy speech. At TC, however, he did not take the blame for this at all, but confidently stated that he was the best tribemember at water challenges and should be kept for that and other reasons. I think we'll be seeing more of this type of manipulation. Very slick operator, that Jake, much more so than Penny. ***Edited to correct a part I misremembered, just in case anyone reads this again.
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OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-14-02, 02:30 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
Agree.UTR the first six weeks, but always in the voting "block" of Penny, Ken , Erin and Shii-Ann (until the last twos demise). It makes you wonder who the manipulator is out of the three remaining. He may also be hiding his physical strenght. For a man his age, he's in damn good shape, and could be a threat, but he won't let on just yet. I still can't discount his evil twin, Penny. He would, however, be more likely to win the votes from the jury than she would, up until now.
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-02, 02:26 PM (EST)
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14. "Breakdown of Brian/Ted" |
If there is a betrayal in CG, I believe it will be between Brian and Ted. For two reasons,*this is the in-your-face alliance in CG, so a breakdown would be "good tv" *In the episode where these two crazy kids hook up, remember when they were in the boat and Ted was talking about how they should go all the way together (I assume he was talking about the game ;) ) and Brian was nodding his head, yeah, yeah. Then Brian tossed this remark over his shoulder to Ted: "WE'VE GOT A LOT IN COMMON." Well, these guys must've talked a lot about their lives, job, personal characteristics and so on in order for Brian to make this comment and for Ted to agree. We all know that Brian has a penchant for acting and that he started playing the game right off the bat. Maybe Brian told Ted a bunch of BS about his life, and the truth is revealed - - IN A VIDEO FROM HOME!!!  (Sorry...had Thai for lunch...makes me hyper)
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tattletale 20 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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11-14-02, 03:15 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Breakdown of Brian/Ted" |
I Brian and Ted might try to stick together, but they need a third person in there deal. I think that third person is Penny. I watched a clip on CBS and I think Brian really likes Penny and does not feel threatened by her. I think he does not like Helen or Clay. I have read here and there that Penny goes along way, I could not see that happening until watching Brians Comments.
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-14-02, 01:12 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-14-02 AT 01:14 AM (EST)It's out there....but I like it!! All of Brian's confessionals so far have been strategy-related, complete with shark imagery and an interesting explanation of how getting sloppy drunk can help you advance in the game. Brian is edited as a narrator of the Brian show, not a narrator of Survivor. I can think of only one of his confessionals that is specifically about another survivor's character and/or strategy. This is the confessional that you speak of, Ocean, the one about Penny, and it is quite a lengthy synopsis. Brian and Penny could have made a deal during their getting-to-know-you picnic on the beach just before the anti-merge. I noticed this week too that Jake was quite comfortable complaining to Brian about Helen's "Kant Kook Keith" impressions as they escaped to the boat. You would think he would restrain himself from dissing any CG's in front of another CG at this point in the game. Also, Brian claimed that he didn't give any secrets away to Jake about tribal unity, but he did join Jake in the bitchfest about Helen. In your theory, Ocean, is Jake in the know about Penny/Brian? (Edited because I made a really really stupid embarrassing mistake that I caught before anyone else saw it)
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OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-14-02, 02:24 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
I would think Penny would let Jake know, especially as you stated if he permits himself to b!tch about Helen to Brian. Plus if they have someone in mind (Ken) to vote off, the extra player's vote always helps. So now you have Brian, Penny, Jake, and Ted (who still thinks he's in an alliance with Brian), and Clay (who hasn't been officially ousted from the boys' club AKA B/T/C) would be easy to persuade to vote off Ken (who is a biggest threat in challenges to them). That's the majority. Now, if Ken wins immunity, since they will vote as a block, who is their secondary target? Helen or Jan?
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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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11-14-02, 02:05 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-14-02 AT 02:59 PM (EST)I agree why else would Burnett reveal the Brian and Ted alliance? I think because either Brian or Ted get voted out sometime soon and the alliance in the end does not matter. Something tells me there will be a surprise boot tonight. There is no evidence Ken goes but yet again everyone is picking him just because it is logical. Something will break up the Brian and Ted alliance and I don't think it will be Ted or Brian. There may be another coconut game. This accounts for Clay and Helen saying the tribe has spoken.
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Ronii29 10 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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11-14-02, 04:05 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Sook Jai Wins" |
I personally have no problem with Jake winning sole survivor. It would be interesting seeing him as the underdog and rising to the challenge and even more interesting seeing how he gets there. Never in the history of Survivor has the person who wins the last immunity challenge been named sole survivor, so if he can make it to f2 and make survivor history..why not.
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