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"Could IC be Individual After All?"
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 07:53 PM (EST)
 
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"Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Why even fight the video promo that appears to show tribal IC?1) The Ep 8 teaser about seeking out alliances with new tribesmates doesn't make sense to me without merged voting, and 2) I am still reluctant to think Burnett will stoop to having jury members from opposing tribes judging a F2. The F2 are supposed to answer to EACH member of the jury because they helped VOTE THEM OUT. With separate voting, the next juror will only be voted out by people who may not even make the Final 2. (they may, but that can't be assumed at this point.) This is just wrong for Survivor as we know it, whereas a delayed merge worked for one episode without screwing up this basic tenet of the game. Feel free to just shoot me right down here. This is wild spec. 1) The video promo points us in only one direction--towards no merge in Ep 8. "The tribes haven't merged!" Yeah, that's certainly true at the beginning and for Day One, because they are talking about separate sleeping quarters for that night. 2) For immunity! Such clear shots of separate stations with tribal colors and the old idol! Wow, why is MB handing this to us on a platter instead of making us debate endlessly whether or not they merge by NOT showing any challenges. He's done it before. Spec: it's major misdirection in order to disguise the merge. How does it happen? The IC could be a reversed order with RC, as we are told to expect, on Day 2. They show up expecting Tribal IC and Jiffy psyches them out by switching it either before or at the end of the challenge. Argument that could prove it: If all 9 players compete, because the tribes would have to sit one out? Disprove it: find a pic with someone sitting out. Are these people dumb enough not to realize they're being screwed with if they aren't told to sit one out? After last week's stunning display of close listening skills, quite possibly. Scenario 1)
Jiffy tells them surprise, this is individual. He does it at the last minute and they are wearing their old buffs. He tells them new buffs and a necklace will be theirs when it's over. 2) My favorite!
It's a breath-holding challenge a la S1, which was individual. They are told "this is for immunity" and "last one to come up wins"--which is true either way... The players who are challenge dead weight give up early because they rely on someone stronger to win for the team. The last two from each team duke it out the longest, as the whole tribal immunity is on their shoulders. They come up and Jiffy rewards the player with longest individual endurance who proved his or her worth by going above and beyond for the good of the tribe. This effort for the good of the many is then rewarded by the good for the one.
Challenge dead weight Penny stops smirking. A CG likely wins immunity, leaving all the SJ vulnerable, especially Ken, the one with the most story arc, but the show was edited from last week so that we think CG might vote Penny out, so there is plenty of doubt. They go back to camp and have to switch all their new sleeping arrangements from enemy camps back to the illusion of one happy family. They sing Kumbaya out of tune.  Last spec:
Since this is Day 2, they have plenty of time to start courting the other tribe for alliances before TC. On Day 3 they have individual RC, which the promos can't show us or possibly describe without tipping us off to the merge, and that's why we have nothing on the reward this week. I'm well aware this is a big stretch, so, like I said, I welcome being shot down, especially with hard evidence that I missed, so I can snap out of my denial that the merge is further delayed.
 
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 09:28 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
In another thresd, I suggested reasons for MB's delaying the merge (avoid tiebreaks, while pagonging couldn't be stopped with a tommy-gun). Now it's done. He can keep the tension up a good three days longer, then have them compete for an individual immunity, and hand out the brown buffs.1) Are we SURE this is an IC, and not an RC that the video is showing us? 2) I agree with those who have brought out that, with everyone now on the jury, everyone MUST be at TC, but it's wrong for separate tribes to be at TC while JP is asking only a few people his deeply probing questions. 3) While this is interesting to the audience, if MB goes TOO far astray from his game, people will get upset and uncomfortable. And for comfort, they might turn to Friends or the latest Star Trek rerun on TNN. So I'm thinking that this won't last too long.
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-01-02, 09:41 PM (EST)
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2. "Scenario 2" |
Is almost exactly what I had been pondering. I just know that he will have to do something to provide some sort of a twist. However, he has to also do something that will continue the continuity. He knows he can't mess with the formula too much, or the viewer will have some "discomfort" and he may lose them.
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-02, 09:41 PM (EST)
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3. "Why do they have to be at every TC??" |
I really don't know why people think that the jury needs to be at every tribal counsel. Everyone in this game is living together now, and they know what is going on. They are too close to keep too many secrets hidden, and this game isn't as in depth as MB wants you to believe. Tribal Counsel is not as influential as most of us want to believe.Throughout Survivor history, the only TC's where votes have seemed to be influenced is when there is a final TC, and it is usually caused by a personal vendetta or an answer that the juror doesn't like (Brandon, anyone). I truly don't see why a juror just can't miss having every single person in this game at the tribal counsel. If that was truly the case, then all 10 contestants should have been at TC last night. It is just my opinion, but a juror should get enough of an impression on who they think deserves to win after 6 days, whether everyone is at TC or not. "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 09:54 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Why do they have to be at every TC??" |
bergdogg--
Well, for one thing, if roughly half the players don't hear TC while in the game, they miss a lot of information. TC is where Probst puts people on the hot seat about their strategy.Every juror will be there at TC, but what if all the jurors at first are from one tribe? The other tribe will be in the dark about these important sessions. Remember that the TC's can last maybe an hour or two, not just the few minutes we see on TC. A lot is said that we never hear. We have heard from former contestants that Burnett has even imposed strict rules that a later juror can't tell an earlier juror what happened after the person left the game: ALL the post-boot info should ideally come to them from TC. This shows the importance MB puts on the TC over observations that can be made around the camp. However my main objection to a segregated TC is that its a central element of Survivor that the two people in the Final 2 generally have had to screw over the bootees on the jury and must still get a majority to vote for them. As with Big Brother (where jurors can have live feed 24/7 even)--this concept is crucial to a winning strategy. There is a huge difference between causing a tribe to boot someone because you won tribal immunity and the act of PERSONALLY voting someone out. This distinction will go out the window if the merge is delayed any longer.
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-02, 01:49 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Why do they have to be at every TC??" |
OFG, I still don't agree with you on this, but it is hard to try and defend my stance against your great spoiling record. Damn it, I am so conflicted. I see that this time you seem to be struggling for info, unlike last week where the info was contructed on the evidence shown on the vidcaps. This week you ask us to go against them.I guess I am just hoping that for once I am right and you are wrong. Oh well either way, because it is great to see both sides of the spectrum. Anyways, back to spoiling. Though it is understandable that with the jury process from all previous seasons has been with every member of the game at TC to this point. I say that it isn't necessary. The juror has 6 days to meet with people. Most jurors do not vote based upon what they hear at tribal counsel, though. Most, if not all of Final TC votes have come from two spectrums: 1) They would rather have that person win over the other, or 2) they have a vendetta against one of the jurors. I would say that S2 is the only true exeption to this, but other than that season, those are the two primary ways the jurors vote. Burn-it knows this, and I think we do too. I truly believe (or hope) that a person can determine who is playing a better game sitting on the jury at the rest of the TC's. As for the other tribe missing the next TC, I say that it is no big deal. I think that if they put themselves in that possible situation, they will get the point. They are living together, so they can see the emotions through their actions. There are going to be less secrets now, but the only thing that I could see is that the Chewys now missed the last vote, and have no idea who got Shii's vote. Then again, that is how it should be. "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 02:06 AM (EST)
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13. "CBS Poll votes" |
hey bergdogg,
nobody should agree with me because of my spoiling record. I have been wrong so many times, and will be wrong again! I'm definitely looking for counter-arguments, not blind agreement.You and I see different elements of the game as essential/non-essential. That's good to know. You make excellent points, as does everyone else. I am going on a gut feeling, I guess. I was curious to see if anyone else here had that same gut, but apparently not. btw, the CBS poll for who will get kicked off next is currently neck and neck with Penny and Jan holding 70% of votes. That would indicate people are voting according to which tribe will win immunity and picking the person they see as most vulnerable. It's interesting that Ken's high profile got wiped out by all the emphasis on Penny and the twist. But Penny has very little face time/story arc yet. I feel we have just started to see her. And everyone, PLEASE don't throw Zoe at me every time I make a face time argument. Zoe was so boring that the only way to make her interesting was to keep her quiet so we would think she was mysterious and had great potential. Penny has a "Good Strategy." She is being set up to go at least a bit farther, IMHO, although last night certainly shook my belief that she could win! I wonder if anyone here has ever tracked how often those polls of the week pick the right answer.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 11:27 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
OFG,
Once again, your points about delaying the merge screwing up the integrity of the jury make all the sense in the world. However, I fear you are guilty of the same sort of speculation that burned me in E7.Your speculations are all well thought out and could happen in theory, but looking at the visual evidence, do you really think it's the way it's likely to play out? Last week, I tried to force my square peg Tribal-Immunity-Everyone-Votes theory into the round hole of Shii-Ann-on-a-Platter-Editing. This week, we have even better visual evidence that immunity is still tribal, and a candidate who has been set up for a fall (Ken). All it would really take to have a fully informed jury is to have the losing tribe attend TC as observers. This would work this week, and this week only before there would be an actual juror conflicting with an observing tribe of still-active players. Or MB could just say "screw it", he's done more bizarre things. (Between you and me, I think option A is more likely, though. ) Really, I'm just trying to save you from the peril that befell me most recently. I'm just asking you to think about it. Look at the visual. Think about how unwieldy a "trick" like the one you suggest would be. MB's surprise was E7. I think he enjoys watching them squirm, and it wouldn't be fulfilling to him to just have them squirming for a day or two. No, he'll want to put them through the ringer for a good 4 or 5 days. In this case, I'm afraid things are as they appear.  Fester <-- Sporting yet another scar, courtesy of Occam's Razor.
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ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-02, 11:36 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
I would just like to point out that bear in mind if there is no merge, the next person voted out who becomes the first member of the jury, will not miss tribal council because he has to be at tribal council to be voted out!
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 00:37 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
I appreciate this feedback immensely!I will continue to argue the points that aren't laid to rest... 1) It's not just about the jury's information. That is one issue, and an important one,
but
2) It's about both of the Final 2 having "accountability" to each member of the jury. That is very much at risk and is a core element of the game. As to old Occam:
well, looked at one way, a merge this episode is absolutely Occam's Razor. It's the most conservative change and the simplest way for the game to go. It conflicts with no known spoilers either. It's the PROMO that I am not taking at face value, but promos often are devious. Buffs are digitally altered, things put out of sequence, caps shown with missing players, expressions taken out of context--these manipulations are common. I hear Jiffy telling them "this is for immunity." I don't hear him saying what kind of immunity. We are shown the idol, so we assume it's tribal, but he could take that idol away at the end. We see tribal colors on the stations. But what do we really see about the challenge? A line of individuals (lined up as tribes) being told to go underwater on the count of 3. We know already that the first individual challenge of S1 was holding breath under water, and Greg won. My proposal is nothing new in the game.
I'm kind of challenging people to analyze that promo and see it they can prove it's tribal or if it's possible to separate the No Merge hype from the immunity challenge footage.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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11-02-02, 01:25 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
In the promos they say there is no merge and there are two tribes so I think it will still be tribal.It would be unfair to have an individual IC of holding your breath. The first three up would be Jan, Erin and Penny
Then Jake, Clay and Helen
Leaving Brian, Ted and Ken to battle it out. Ken is the youngest and has the most lung capacity so unless he freaks out underwater he would win
WINNER:
Preseason pick: Clay
Ep. 1 analysis: Brian
Rooting for: Helen
UTR Winner: Jake "I don't want to lose it"- Jake: in reference to his hat
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 01:45 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Ivory,
The promo doesn't say they do not merge; it says:
"Two competing tribes living on one beach" and
"but they haven't merged."
The parts about not having merged come before the challenge and could totally be the set up for the first part of the episode.JP: "this is for immunity!" (And yes, he has the idol there in plain view for us.) VO "Now who's your enemy and who's your friend? Answers will be revealed." I did mention I'm prepared to be totally wrong, right? But I need the right argument to convince me... I don't see why a breath endurance is unfair (for this game).
It was already the merge episode challenge in Survivor 1. The first individual challenge is typically endurance. Yes, it favors a man. The pole-holding/stump-standing favors a woman. The game isn't fair much of the time. That said, the immunity idol may be as straightforward as Tammy in the immunity necklace being shown. I just want to allow myself to question this "given" piece of confirmation for a few days. While you all tell me to come back to Planet Earth!
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NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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11-02-02, 12:38 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
I disagree with your assessment of who this challenge would favor, were it individual. Let us not forget that Ted is a novice swimmer and HELEN is a Navy swim instructor. Her skills in this area are unparalleled. She isn't a smoker and has years of experience in the water. I'm betting Helen will pull this one off (either for her team or herself, still undecided)I see OFG's point about jury/F2 accountability. Think about it this way. Let's just say that there is another team immunity and Sook Jai loses. They are forced to turn on themselves; Jake, Erin and Penny vote out Ken. Ken is pissed because he thought Jake and he had an alliance, right? Now, Ken is on the Jury. Let's just say the final two are Jake and Brian (just for argument's sake). Okay, so Ken is pissed off about Jake's betrayal, but because Brian never had a hand in voting him off, he gets Ken's vote. Something doesn't sit right with me here if someone gets a vote simply because they didn't vote out a juror. I mean, Brian wasn't required too--Jake was. So, I do believe we'll see an individual immunity this week. If we don't see a merge, however, I'll be extremely disgusted with this turn of events. 
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 06:48 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Scribe,
it's great to see you here on the dark side (in my tiny little corner). There's good evidence of a team challenge, and some big questions that point to a possible individual challenge. I so agree with you that no merge this episode will be disgusting. I am with true that either they need to merge with an individual immunity or a one-time immunity for one tribe. Can two tribes attend a TC together? It's unprecedented; therefore I expect a merge so they can all go to TC. I mean think about it people: they call it TRIBAL Council for a reason; it's ONE tribe deliberating, not TRIBES' Council. I may end up eating my words, but that's what I think! Scribe, of course I agree that Helen is the absolute contender here--now that I've seen caps showing them swimming and not just holding their breath underwater. (It was discussed after S1 that men simply have larger lungs than women and a bigger air reserve, which greatly favors them in holding breath underwater, something training can't totally overcome.) Now if it's a tribal challenge Helen would have to wait until all members get back to the platform, so the slowest swimmer could drag down the team, unless it's a relay challenge. (And when have we ever seen a race where they are all swimming for the finish line as a tribe unless they were pulling some common object? Again, it doesn't make sense.) If it's individual, Helen... (continuing the pattern of a woman of 40 or older winning the first individual immunity since S1, hey, we all know Tina would have beaten Keith). If tribal, CG. So Ken is toast, any side you butter it.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 10:40 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-02 AT 10:40 PM (EST)As to old Occam: well, looked at one way, a merge this episode is absolutely Occam's Razor. I'm gonna have to call you out on this one. The truth of the matter is that a merge last episode would've been expected, and therefore could be considered Razor-esque, but now all bets are off. We have already deviated from the path of all previous seasons, so we are now in a land with no precedent. I would argue that absent ANY spoiler info that a merge DOES occur, and ample (if not circumstantial) evidence that one DOES NOT, one cannot draw a logical conclusion that a merge, complete with individual immunity, will occur. I'm not saying that it won't (OK, I am, but not to a scientific certainty), just that one cannot deduce it happening based on the evidence readily available. It's funny, because as I'm writing this, I'm struck by how this may be a moot point. Unless there is individual immunity and Ken wins it, he's likely to go next regardless of who or how many are voting. If SJ goes, he's the likely target (can't see anyone else going), and if all 9 remaining players vote, he's still bound to lose out as CG will certainly target him as an IC threat. Ironically, now that Shii Ann is gone, he has no voice to protect him with CG, and CG has no reason to keep him around. It seems to me that he's gone either way. Fester
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Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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11-02-02, 02:06 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
The Jury angle is very interesting. No merge: SJ/CG loses and votes out another member. That person holds resentment
towards their tribemates. Merge: E8 bootee holds resentment not against their old tribemates but against CG. Example: SJ loses and Ken is booted off. Ken will hold resentment toward Jake, Penny
and Erin and most likely vote against them at the end. If they merge and Ken gets booted
he will most likely vote in favour of one of his ex-tribemates as they would not have voted
him off at TC (CG would have done the dirty work for them). For the reasons already mentioned in this thread it would only be fair if this was a 'merged'
vote at TC. There are a few interesting items to look at. First: Brian and Clay seem to have brown buffs on. It could be the lighting or just MB
misdirection just for OFG.
 Second: They are lined up here for the challenge but notice that Jake is on the far
right and Erin is on the far left. Would they not be lined up as a team if this was a
team challenge?
 Third: The challenge of who can breath underwater the longest seems more like an
individual challenge and not a team challenge unless they measure the accumulative
time underwater for each team. Either way my money is on Helen / CG lasting the
longest. Out of desperation Ken may win but his water skills are still in question.
 Fourth: Nothing else but I am loving Jakes 'that sounds almost erotic' comment
after Penny suggest the 4 of them sleep together... what a Dog...
One more reason for Jake to vote Ken out... On the 'flip side of the coin' there are some semi spoilers out there suggesting that they
merge at 8 or at the 'halfway' point. That would mean one more show without a merge. It is also interesting that they played up the possible Ken boot last week when
Penny was really the target if they would have merged. You would think the 'dark'
cheerleader story would have made better TV. My guess is they were just giving
Ken his face time before he gets booted.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 02:15 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-02 AT 02:26 AM (EST)Yogi,
thanks for those jury thoughts, and pulling some great info out of the vidcaps. I had noticed the brownish buffs but am wary due to way MB has frequently digitally altered the buffs in the past. However, it is less likely he would alter them to suggest a merge when the whole promo text goes away from a merge. How grandiose a fantasy, special misdirection just for ME! LOL.  I hadn't been able to see how they were lined up because the figures are so tiny... and this is what I was looking for, some vidcap analysis because I suck at it. So Erin and Jake are on opposite sides? Very Interesting. Helen should do the best with her swimming training but a man still is favored. Who would have thought that Paschal would win that diving RC where he had to hold his breath and move that rock to the shore. You never can tell. Edited to add that I went back to Ken's official bio to look for water sports interests and found none:
He enjoys motorcycle riding, mountain biking and fitness training. Biking is aerobic (good for lungs), but no indication of comfort under water here. And I agree, Yogi. This seems like an atypical set-up for a team challenge, were it not that the promo has tribal colors on the staging. Also let's remember that Jeff will take back the idol from CG, regardless, and he could have just set it down next to him for the duration. The question is, what does he give the winner(s)?
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 02:34 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Hi, gonna jump in here with what I see so far.I had noticed the brownish buffs but am wary due to way MB has frequently digitally altered the buffs in the past. However, it is less likely he would alter them to suggest a merge when the whole promo text goes away from a merge. This shot clearly shows me that the buff color has been altered, or they are wearing a tanish colored buff at this challenge. This is by far the best evidence that they are competeing as individuals in a merged tribe.
Everything else seems to point to a tribal competition. First we get the NO MERGE text overlay with the red circle X. I agree that this could point to just the beginning of the episode.
All we see of the challenge participants are these- 
Lined up from l to r are Erin, Penny, Ken and Jake. They are all on one side in their original SJ tribe. The boards on the platform behind them are painted SJ purple and the pegs in front of each of them are also painted purple. The only CG participants pictured are Brian and Clay in the shot above with the different colored buffs. Notice that the board on their platform is orange (or at least not purple) Besides the buff color, both of these pics indicate a tribal IC to me. Then there is Jiffy, saying his usual, "this is for immunity" with his arm raised" I agree that the shot of the big ugly tribal Immunity idol could be from CG returning it to the competition. I just think it would be removed if he tells them it is individual immunity they're playing for, and would be replaced with whatever, sure to be gaudy, necklace that awaits an individual winner. Maybe it is out of the frame, who knows. 
I hadn't been able to see how they were lined up because the figures are so tiny... and this is what I was looking for, some vidcap analysis because I suck at it. So Erin and Jake are on opposite sides? Very Interesting. 
I don't know exactly what to make of this line up, maybe it is just an arrival shot. It's pretty blurry, and I can't make out buffs on any of them in this picture. I'm gonna bring up some wild spec that I briefly entertained last week. Could it be possible that they compete as tribes, but both tribes vote at this TC, with all of CG being immune? Seems far fetched, yes, but it would take care of the problem of having a juror booted by only part of the group. Maybe the order of the challenges is mixed up, and they do tribal IC first, vote out Ken, merge, and then hold individual RC last? Seems pretty out there, but who knows, I did read that the orders will be switched around this season. Or perhaps, they have tribal IC, merge, individual RC, then TC where everyone votes, and original CG members are all immune for this week only. If IC is first, then a merge, it might explain why members are seeking out alliances with the other tribe members as hinted to in the teaser. If SJ knows that CG is voting one of them out, they would have to court them for help to survive TC. Keep those theories coming, I'm enjoying all of them! 
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-02, 06:34 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
hey true,
thanks so much for the detailed evidence and the caps. Your theory about CG voting too would be my alternate theory, as it does ensure that everybody participates in the first juror's ouster, which I think is crucial.I want to hold out hope that this is an individual immunity, due to
1) the altered buff color
2) we are shown all 4 SJ's in their holding pen but not an overhead of CG that would let us know if 4 or 5 are competing. Tangent:
Why do I hope this? Because it would be better gamesmanship to give the Sook Jai members a shot at winning immunity, as they are sitting ducks if CG gets to vote. OTOH, one can argue that SJ has an equal chance of winning (not really, given the remaining players, but theoretically). That would mean that SJ has a shot of being immune and voting out a CG. That would be interesting, because CG's next target is Jan, but SJ would pick Ted or Brian, almost certainly. And the vote could end up tied the first round... but I doubt that SJ wins. End of Tangent:
Back to the challenge, yes, that darn idol is so prominently displayed in front of Jiffy that I have to conclude he would have put it away and pulled out the necklace, as you say, if he had told them it was individual beforehand. Therefore it either is a team IC (but I still think they merge this episode and it will be the last one) or he pulls a big switcheroo on them after the fact which (sigh) does sound like a stretch on my part. There is one more piece of evidence though--which is this cap that shows the whole challenge area with Jiffy and no one sitting out that I can make out. I've never seen a challenge where someone sat out that they didn't stay at the finish line with Jiffy. Nor have we ever seen a tribal challenge of uneven numbers except for that one maze challenge in S2, and now they seem to have a clear rule about even numbers. 
I cropped it and blew it up as best I can--not a graphics pro! 
Anyone see a loose tribe member here or a place they could be hiding? At this point of the race one of the swimmers appears to be approaching Jiffy, so I would expect someone sitting out to be standing up and cheering on their tribe.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-02, 07:10 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Good point about the missing CG members, OFG. Too bad we only get the shot of Brian and Clay actually competing. I agree that any member that is potentially sitting out should be close by.I hate to say it, because you're probably right, but are you sure that's Jiffy in the picture you posted? In the other shot of him, he's wearing a blue shirt, and even though it is a far off shot, I don't see any blue, it looks more white to me. Also, I had figured that they arrived at the platform on the boats, especially if it's is a breath holding contest. Why else would they need the boats? Maybe they are the boats Jiffy promised to them last week, and they just get to take them back to camp after the IC is over. Does anyone recall if they already got their new boats last week? If not, it might (and I'm only saying might) be some evidence that the IC happens first this week. Otherwise, I would think Jiffy could have given them their new boats at RC. In the arrival shot, with the big 2 over it, they do appear to be already wet, so do Brian and Clay. They are also getting in the water with shirts on, and not bathing suit tops (women and men). Seems odd that they would swim out, and compete in a water challenge with shirts on, but maybe I'm just being too picky. I don't see the immunity idol on the box in the picture either. I guess they could swim it out there though, if this is a pre-arrival shot of the challenge. If it is pre-arrival, then I guess looking for a CG sitting out, wouldn't help much. I'm also thinking it could be just one of those overhead shots that MB loves so much, taken before or after anyone is around. Maybe the white blob is a standin, or crew member?? including your pictures here for easier reference.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 07:52 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: No Sit-Out" |
That seems very likely. All of them appear to be wearing black as well, perhaps some sort of weighted suit to help them remain underwater longer?
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-02, 02:49 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Yogi, In response to: >>On the 'flip side of the coin' there are some semi spoilers out there suggesting that they merge at 8 or at the 'halfway' point. That would mean one more show without a merge. Are there other spoilers besides the CBS official FAQ?
The FAQ says they merge halfway through their stay on the island, which would be measured by days, not contestants. Since Ep 8 is Days 22-24, they are already past day 20, which is the halfway point, so the sooner they merge the better if the CBS FAQ is accurate. (Accurate and CBS may be oxymoronic when combined in a sentence.)
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Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-02, 03:36 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
There is one other semi spoiler that I know of.MB had an interview with an Australian Newspaper.
When there are eight contestants left they merge and compete among themselves.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/10/14/1034561099400.html
It was not shown as an actual quote from MB so I ignored it as being a possible spoiler. The following quotes are attributed to MB and fit to what we have seen so far.
"What we have learned is, to keep things working at their best, it's very important that
we keep the people playing the game off-balance," Burnett says.
"If they're predicting how the game goes, it doesn't help the show whatsoever. They need
to be feeling uncomfortable, and out of their comfort zone. My guess is that the only thing that will bring this group back into their 'comfort zone' would
be a merge. Until then they will just be guessing like the rest of us.
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-02, 03:09 AM (EST)
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16. "Immunity Idol" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-02 AT 01:35 PM (EST)OFG, I have a problem with the theory that the IC is individual: in the vidcaps the Immunity Idol is prominantly displayed next to Jiffy. Perhaps that it's just there because the survivors returned it, but then I don't think it would it be displayed on a platform. If immunity were individual, there would be a necklace of some kind. The idol is for Tribal immunity, for sure.
MM
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 07:48 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Immunity Idol" |
Jeff said at the last Tribal Council that after that vote-off (Shii Ann being booted) they would all be in the game to the end one way or another, either as members of the jury or as members of the final two.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-02, 08:01 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
I'm replying to true's post (#22?) at the bottom so the thread can move downwards again and be easier to follow...true, you are impresively observant of these cap details.
I had never even noticed the swimming in shirts detail--which is weird for sure. Nor had I noticed they were wet on arrival/getting into what I'll call the tank or pen area, but that looks right now that you mention it. Also, they have been given goggles, possibly with the tree mail, so that suggests they need to be able to see to find something underwater, perhaps pearls? It never occurred to me that they were swimming out to Jiffy to START the challenge. I thought they were swimming/racing, and yet they are really spread out. Hmmm. The question is whether Jeff already has the idol in that overhead. Yes, I'm sure it's Jeff, as his close-up cap shows him standing in that relation to the challenge area next to that box, with the idol on top. I think his blue shirt washes out to white in this blurry shot and the enlargement makes it worse. I just checked out SNN for a vidcap to answer your question about Jiffy, and saw they are speculating the boats are involved in the challenge. But really I like your idea that these boats are their promised new transportation. (Although damn, two boats sounds like separate fishing and water collecting--unless they just give them two because they're so prone to losing stuff and it would be embarrassing to bail them out again.) I took another look at the boats. You can see in the shot of SJ in the tank/pen that the boat next to them has purple paint in areas, so I assume the CG boat has their colors. However, the SJ flag looks to me like gold (one rumored merge color), not purple, which I can't explain. I also watched the video again to confirm:
The diving down is the start of the challenge, because Jeff says this is for immunity and counts them down, and the idol is definitely in front of them as he says this. So either the open-water swimming is a second phase of the competition or they have to swim out to Jeff with the idol in someone's hand. I can't say that I see the point of the swimming leg to the shore and back to the platform; a group swim just lumps the whole tribe together with its slowest swimmer, and would possibly negate whatever lead they got in the diving segment (sounds more like TAR). However, if rowing is the end phase of the challenge I throw in the towel on an individual IC. Maybe someone will come to my aid and get a clear enough shot to tell if the idol is already on the box in the overhead shot? *ready to eat crow on the individual IC, but glad the thread has gotten so much work done on the challenge*
"as for the truth, it seems we just pick a theory"--Indigo Girls, Deconstruction
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 00:02 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Here's another shot of the swimming scene, that I can actually make out swimmers in. I couldn't see any in the other shot. Where's Webby with those crystal clear caps when we need him? I have to agree, I just don't see the point of a group swim to and from shore, but who knows, maybe at some point they have to retrieve something from the beach. It could be, what we are seeing as swimmers, are just waves. I still only see what appears to be one person on the platform, agreed it's most likely Jeff. 
I do tend to overanalyze things. I got proof of that when rewatching episode 7 with my husband, who hadn't seen it yet. He has seen every episode of every season of Survivor, yet he was fooled into thinking the tribes were merged, just as the players were. In fact, when they got together, he asked me if they normally merge at this point in the game. What I'm trying to say is this, MB IS surprising the general fans of the show. As spoilers, we are all hung up on every detail of every part of the game. If the majority of the audience isn't particular about when tribes merge, I have to wonder if MB thinks it's so important to stick to the same formulas. Just something to keep in mind, as we try to figure it all out.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 01:03 AM (EST)
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43. "Swimming leg of the race..." |
Why would this image be framed with the platforms off to the right hand side of the shot if the focus was the platform. The image must be showing something off to the left hand side...Jeff is also looking towards the "swimmers" heading back from the shore... We also see the boats of both tribes with flags. What are the flags for? The next leg of the challenge? 
Krautboy
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 03:45 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-03-02 AT 03:45 AM (EST)hey OFG, i'm leaning toward it being team immunity again, although i do take your argument regarding every member of the tribe being part of every vote for a juror very seriously... just a couple points, that are only tangentally related to the discussion: 1) I don't see why they couldn't have an individual RC, but still have team immunity (regardless of the order they occur in) 2) Even if we got a shot of someone sitting out, I don't know that that disproves your bait and switch theory. As the team would either decide together, or the individual sitting out would volunteer, that would mitigate any "unfairness" about one player not getting to compete for individual immunity. Add in the fact that the person who sits out would not have been likely to win anyways, and MB is only marginally concerned with being "fair" and I don't know why someone couldn't sit out an apparent team immunity only to find out later that it was in fact individual 
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 06:02 PM (EST)
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29. "Swimming Goggles?" |
Just wanted to add a few observations...everyone appears to have been issued swimming goggles! Why?If the challenge was just holding your breath, it would only last about a minute or two. And if it was breath holding, why would they need the goggles? I have to assume that they will be asked to dive and retieve something that would require them to be able to see under water. Goggles would allow those who wear glasses to have prescription swim goggles to level the playing field. Have we ever seen swim goggles for everyone before? I don't think so. Also in the vidcap showing the swimmers, apparently swimming back from the shore, we see the boats still tied up...waiting for the last leg of the race? So, a possible challenge scenario might look loke this... The two tribes arrive at the platform, Immunity Idol prominantly displayed, (no Immunity Necklace in sight yet) The two tribes are given their swimming goggles as Jeff describes what they must collect from the bottom. They need the goggles to be able to see what they are doing. Each tribe member must complete their individual task before the tribe is allowed to take off on the swim leg of the race. The last leg involves the two boats conspicuously waiting back at the platform. They must paddle to the finish line back on the beach, but they are not allowed to take off until each mermber is back on the platform and in the boat. It may be that the IC takes place first this week (MB reversing the order has been mentioned). After the IC he may hand out the new buffs, setting up an individual RC BEFORE TC? So the IC is for all members of the winning tribe, who become individual competitors afterwards, and are all allowed to vote at TC...that's were the strategizing and new alliance buiding comes in. If Sook Jai wins the team immunity we suddenly have a situation where we are back to 4-4 after the merge!! A situation like this would certainly require..."Desperate Measures" in EP9. Jan was shown, at the funeral of her bat, this week we see a funeral for a chicken. Do we see Jan's own funeral at TC??
Krautboy
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 06:20 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Swimming Goggles?" |
Prescription goggles aren't necessary underwater, they are only necessary out of the water. I was thinking the same thing about what it is they have to do underwater, move something along a course or perhaps follow a course and release balloons. The guys are wearing shirts, that would slow them down a little if it were a swimming challenge.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 00:52 AM (EST)
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42. "Flags?" |
 Looking at the flags in the boat, they would most likely be part of a relay race type challenge. Having a hard time understanding how they would be part of an individual challenge. That said, I am also in the camp that thinks there is a snorkel breathing endurance challenge...just can't figure out how an endurance type challenge can work as part of any kind of a relay race. We must be missing something?
Krautboy
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 01:17 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Flags?" |
The goggles wouldn't be needed for a simple snorkle-breathing competition, plus they all seem to be wearing some sort of dark-colored dive suits. They must be going down to the bottom for some reason, to accomplish some task. The goggles allow them all to see reasonably well underwater, and possibly the suits are weighted to help them counteract their own natural bouyancy in the water (ie. they have to stay underwater throughout, even when coming up to breathe). Observation: If breaking the surface without having completed a task is against the rules in this competition, disqualification becomes a prospect which should not be ignored. Individual disqualification would be perfectly acceptable in an individual competition, but it becomes problematic in a team competition (though if there is a second leg to the competition, those not disqualified having to paddle the boats to the finish line, it could still work). Navy swim instructor Helen should probably do very well in this competion, so if it does turn out to be individual she should be considered the likely winner.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-02, 08:33 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Swimming Goggles?" |
If the challenge was just holding your breath, it would only last about a minute or two. And if it was breath holding, why would they need the goggles? When I saw the caps, my first thought was that this was the endurance IC that traditionally begins the individual competition within the merged tribe. After reading all of this insightful analysis, I've changed my mind. Tribal colors and separate arenas of competition have always indicated tribal competition, so that's good enough for me. I'm still not convinced that the swimming in the vidcaps is part of the challenge. And I have no guess about the boats, either. Damn you, Burnett, you evil, evil man. Some posts mention underwater breathing as opposed to breath holding. I'm leaning toward the underwater breathing description based on a couple of the caps. Notice that we never see the competitors actually dive down, head first, underwater as if attempting to collect or gather objects. The preview clearly shows several individuals almost surfacing, yet remaining just below the surface. 
Both (I can't tell who they are - Penny and Helen?) of the Survivors appear to have their hands up to their faces. Throw in this cap of the pegs (breathing tubes??) on the plank... 
...and I've think we've got Survivors engaged in an endurance challenge wherein they are submerged underwater and breathe through these snorkel-like tubes for as long as possible. This would be no quickie "hold your breath" deal. This could go on for a while. But this type of challenge would be pretty self-contained - last one up wins. Not sure how to reconcile this spec with a team challenge or a multi-part competition. What the hell are those boats for????
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 12:00 PM (EST)
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47. "Boats" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-04-02 AT 12:01 PM (EST)Why wouldn't the boats just be their transportation to the dock? They were told if they picked CG as their merge camp, they'd get another boat. So, they have 2 boats again. Each boat might hold 8 (if these are the same boats they paddled to their original camps with), but likely would not hold 9. Plus, if they think they are playing as teams still, they could be told in the tree mail, row yourselves to the challenge dock as teams, each in their own boat. From the new vidcaps posted in the Sunday Preview thread, we can clearly see all 9 of the survivors standing ready to participate. This could just be before CG picks somebody to sit out (I do not think they'd ever do a team competition where one team has more players than the other), or it could be that they are going to be competing for individual immunity and everyone plays. In the Sunday thread, there are also shots of Penny, Erin and Jake crying, Ken hugging Ted, and Ken saying "things change real quick". I think these vidcaps suggest this is for individual immunity, and Ken wins. On a general note, I really feel like the previews are hitting us over the head with the idea that there are still "two teams". Methinks EMP doth protest too much. I'm with OFG--I think we are going to see a merge and individual immunity this week. Remember, he's going to be maintaining a pretense of no merger to the two tribes as well, until the last possible minute, in order to keep them off balance, as he did in the last episode.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 05:17 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
The radio interview with Probst below was posted at Sucks. ------------------------------ Every Friday, Ben and Brian interview Mark Burnett and/or Jeff Probst about what's happening behind the scenes of Survivor. Ben and Brian's Survivor interviews: www.benandbrian.com/survivor.html On November 1st, Jeff was interviewed via satellite phone from the Survivor 6 location. Here are a few interesting tidbits from that interview. Jeff Probst: Hey, guys! Ben and Brian: Hey Jeff. Where are you? Jeff Probst: We are on location in a place I can’t tell you, but I’m definitely on location. Where we’re at has had some pretty bad storms, so all of our power is down and all of our phones are down, so we’re on a satellite phone… Jeff: Next week you get to see what it’s like now with two tribes who are aware that they are two tribes living as one and then you have a challenge come up. It’s tough, I mean I think it’s one of the most interesting episodes next week because it’s the first time we’ve ever seen this. You clearly see that how even just….I don’t even know how many days its been now…18 days, I guess, 21?…you clearly see how quickly you form friendships and that the other people become enemies based on nothing other than us separating them at the beginning. Jeff: Where we’re at next week there’s no watching of TV. Jeff: I think next week’s episode will make you think back on previous seasons and understand a little better what happens when they do merge cuz they aren’t friends. It really explores how the other tribe has become the enemy. And it’s really interesting. And the best part is neither one of the tribes want to admit …you know if one tribe wins they don’t want to celebrate cuz they don’t want to look cocky but they want to let the other tribe know ‘we’re not celebrating because we’re kind.’ It’s just this weird psychology game. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I'd say we'll be seeing a team immunity this Thursday, and probably several more. Maybe this is MB's punishment for no one switching tribes when they could've. I'm beginning to lean toward the idea that there is a default merge when one tribe is down to two members. This is also the most logical scenario to put people from both tribes into the Final 3, if you believe Paratrooper's info. -- br
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 08:17 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Thanks so much BR,
this provides a lot of inside into Burnett's current form of sadism!The S4 swap encouraged the blurring of tribal boundaries, and now he swings the other way to set them in stone as best he can. Will he let a tribe go down to 2?
Doesn't seem to go with his idea that when they do merge it'll be interesting to see, as there won't me much of a merge at that point. I wonder if there's any chance he'll throw in an individual immunity for one of the team members that loses--only thing that could save Ken I think. But then physical strength alone doesn't win all immunity challenges. Every challenge hog so far has had multiple qualities allowing them to go on a run. (Not saying that Ken isn't smart; I think he is.) So it does look to be tribal this week. Although JP only offers one example of a challenge. I still expect to see a merge soon.
"as for the truth, it seems we just pick a theory"--Indigo Girls, Deconstruction
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-02, 10:16 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
The more I think about this week's IC, with both individual endurance aspects as well as team based colors and arenas of competition, the more I find myself contemplating an individual challenge for team immunity. That is, the individual winner wins immunity for their entire tribe. This would again call into question the assumption that the strong should be the first to go after the merge.To reconcile the jury and F2 issue covered in previous posts, both tribes go to TC and vote. Only members of the losing tribe are eligible for the boot. Ponder a moment the ramifications of a SJ IC win under this scenario. Ken, Penny, Jake and Erin need to target the strongest challenge competitor on Chewy and throw 4 votes at him. Use Brian in this example. CG needs to keep the tribe as strong as possible for future team based challenges so the target of Ted, Brian, Clay and Helen is Jan. Jan votes Clay. Votes are 4-4-1. Time for a revote but this time Brian and Jan don't vote and the others must vote for one of these two. Brian is voted out 4-3. Quite a shocker, huh? How else can MB ensure that the leader of the majority alliance is vulnerable? Pagong, schmagong! We've got ourselves a brand new game. Continuing with the team based challenges sure has the potential to make things a lot more interesting. That said, I think weight loss continues to point to a CG run to the end so they survive this IC and Ken gets sent packing. This leads to E8's "Desperate Measures" as Jake, Penny and Erin try to keep themselves in the game, perhaps by wooing the CG ladies.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-02, 11:34 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
Sadism indeed, OFG. The more I think about this, the more I'm getting the picture.Back before Ep 5, when we knew they were going to be offered the opportunity to switch tribes, we all speculated on how it would go down. Some suggested that if no one volunteered, there would be a random reshuffling; some thought they might be bribed with food -- but we all pretty much figured there would be some kind of consequence of not switching voluntarily. But no -- JP ridiculously underplayed the whole thing. The contestants had a minute to think it over, no one volunteered, and that was the end of that. Or so they thought. Little did they realize at that point that they were going to be locked into their tribes indefinitely. Shii Ann touched on this very issue in her chat -- she didn't switch when it was offered because she didn't want to take a chance on CG losing the next IC and booting her as their new member. She felt it would be better to wait, and obviously was salivating to get in with CG once the tribes merged. But MB decided to thumb his nose at the tribes: "Oh, I'm SO sorry, but there is no merge right now. I don't know why you thought there would be. Guess you're stuck with each other... oh, but you WERE given a chance to change tribes awhile back, weren't you? Guess you should have taken it." So there were ramifications after all. MB is pure evil. Uyyyy....right now I have no clue what to think about when the merge will be or how the IC's and TC's will be carried out. I can't see why he'd want to severely curtail the individual ICs either, since they add a random element and provide suspense.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-02, 12:33 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: Could IC be Individual After All?" |
BR, you beat me to it!!While I would love for them to find out after the challenge it was for II OR perhaps the winning tribe does get to vote either as one tribe (one vote) or individually but still a tribe (5 or 4 separate votes, this pic appears to be showing them compete as a team. 
Brian and Clay, if individual, would be "starting" at the same time. However, Clay is somewhat ahead of Brian and looks like he is submerging himself while Brian, who is looking to the other side (?) appears like he is ready to be "handed off too" like a relay. If this was II, they would/should be in the same position beginning at the same time. Also, TV Guide's blurb for Episode 8 "Desperate Measures" states: - News from home draws sharp responses from the castaways that could impact one contestant's future in the game. Also, one alliance tries to infiltrate a rival group." A ninth contestant is voted off the island - This is different from our current blurb where it talks about the TRIBES; this one says one alliance tries to infiltrate a RIVAL GROUP. I'm wondering then if the Suckys lose another member this week putting them at 5-3, they, in "desparate measure" try to infiltrate their rival GROUP, not tribe, but GROUP. Perhaps the 3 remaining Suckys (I'm leaning towards Penny/Erinn/Jake) attempt to sneakily feel out some Chewy's to see how solid they are, most likely Jan/Helen/Clay?
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ARRRRRRR!!!!
