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"THE MERGE: When/Will it happen"
bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-01-02, 01:16 AM (EST)
 
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"THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
If you didn't know by now, there was NOT a merge in episode 7. This cause the boot of Shii Devil and left us asking the question "Is there a merge??? And if so, when??"It is my opinion that they will merge at 8 people, because that is how big the tribes are to start the game. The title of the show is "Sleeping with the Enemy" which is Ted's quote from after IC at the campsite. It makes me believe that they have to sleep with the enemy for at least one more episode. I also don't believe that MB would just merge them at nine, because they haven't had enough time to collude with others. Now that the Sook's are down one, they need to make plans in case they have to abandon ship, and I think MB will give them that chance. Not to mention, that is why Jiffy made the "Does anybody want to switch tribes" statement. He knew that they would be intertwined at some point anyway. MB also knows that 6 days wasn't enough to stir the Boran/Samburu pot. He gave Rotu/Maraamu more time, and it worked. I believe that MB remembers that, and will keep them seperated at least for one more TC. That is just my opinion though, so do with it what you will. "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-01-02, 01:32 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
I agree with your opinion. I figure the merge was pre-planned for 8, and this "sleeping with the enemy" deal was intended to do 2 things: Stir the pot a little, and give the remaining castaways time to get to know each other before the jury starts forming, as would have been the case if they had merged. It has certainly stirred the pot, and it's anybody's guess how this new arrangement will affect the game as it continues.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 03:44 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-02 AT 03:49 AM (EST)As of now I vote for merge next episode. My number one rationale:
We talk blithely about Burnett wanting to avoid an uneven merge, etc., but we are forgetting a fundamental of Survivor: the symbolic importance of the jury and Final 2 coming from ONE merged tribe. Let's follow the idea of merging with 8 to its conclusion.
On the Early Show, 1 X on the face of the juror who never made the merge? What about on the website? The jury: 6 members of Chewy Jive (merged tribe) and 1 member of Sucky or Chewy?
It doesn't work. The merge was likely planned in advance of the shooting. Say what you want about Burnett controlling everything, but he didn't know what the tribal division would be at Ep 7 (nor 8, nor 9). For all he knew one tribe might be as nearly extinct as Maraamu. Sook Jai had a great lead before they decided it was cool to throw challenges and off the threats. One thing Burnett does know is when there will NOT be a deadlock tie--in an episode with an odd number of players. If he wants to avoid a tie at the merge this time, and delay it a little to screw with them, but still have all the Final 9 a merged tribe--then Ep 8 is the perfect merge episode. Then we have the teaser, the preview we had for Ep 8 before Ep 7 aired: Members of the two original tribes consider forming alliances with some of their new mates. First, this is more of CBS stoopid writing. As if every player isn't a member of one of the two original tribes. What a great way to identify them, so there must be some reason why that wording popped into the writer(s)' head. "Original" isn't normally used unless there's something that's not original--i.e. a new tribe. And would you want to form an alliance with the enemy if you and your ally/allies can't even vote together! Perhaps just to signal to your original tribesmates that you don't much like them? You'll be ShiiAnned for sure! (Should we make ShiiAnn a new Survivor verb/gerund like Pagong/Pagonging?) Kind of rhymes with Shitcanned... Therefore if the episode features them even considering forming alliances, they must be merged, probably at the beginning. This could be an episode where they switch the RC/IC order (as we were told would happen at least once) and start with the first individual immunity and new buffs. I'm totally open to being wrong here; this is just my best guess.  
edited for late night typo-itis
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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11-01-02, 09:46 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-02 AT 10:15 AM (EST)ShiiAnned. I like that! I agree with you, OFG. I think it was Webby? that said it is only fair that the jury members be able to decide who ultimately makes it to the final 2 or who doesn't make it to the final 2. I expect MB to let everyone vote starting with the next TC, although he still could do immunity based on old tribal lines. I don't know how fair that is, though. What was MB's ultimate goal here, by delaying the merge? Avoiding a pagonging of one tribe? If so, then it seems he would want a Chewy gone next to make it a 4-4. Who the heck knows? bebe
 edited to say I like anotherkim's definition of Shii-Anned.
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anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 10:02 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
I totally agree with you about the planning and the merge next week. After watching three groups scheme based on a preconceived idea of what was next, this was a great way to shake them up, IMO. Next week...delay the merge another day to keep them unsure, but I think by the second day post-TC, they'll be merged and fighting for individual immunity. What will be interesting is how the CG group holds together and which SJ members they take with them. I see Ken being an obvious target, but if he wins the IC, Shi Ann, probably talked enough trash about Penny to CG that she is history...the sooner the better in my book. What a b*tch..and not in a good way.
Shi Anned--one whose attempt at strategy is derailed by MB's twists; the act of opening one's big mouth and being to out in the open with the intent of voting off one's tribe.
Great phrase!!!
 Miscellaneous Ramblings
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-01-02, 10:44 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-02 AT 10:46 AM (EST)I think this idea is very plausible and likely. Good ideas guys. They will most likely merge now and start making alliances, poor penny. She will be looked at very closely by CG now that shii was all about what a schemer she was. She cannot be UTR like she wanted to now. Thank you Shii. I have one point OFG, however. Although I doubt this would happen again, but it could, but most likely not at this point of the game. Here it is. There could be a tie vote when there is an odd number of survivors, ie odd numbered episode. One member of the group could vote independetly of the two voting blocs, leading to a tie vote, This sort of occurred in S4 when Kathy voted for Zoe, this season when Helen voted for Clay, although they did not force a tie by this happening. Also, during the tie break that would insue, the odd man/woman out would most likely fall in line and vote with thier tribe again, breaking the tie. So a tie could happen on odd numbers, but it would not stand a re-vote. Again never think this will happen on S5, but it is possible. Later, Edited to say, yes I love the term Shiianned. Lets all try to use this as much as possible. Also should we begin compiling a list of all the survivor words created? SB could sell it and use the profits for supporting the site, 
D.R.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 11:18 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
>>And would you want to form an alliance with the enemy if you and your ally/allies can't even vote together! Perhaps just to signal to your original tribesmates that you don't much like them? You'll be ShiiAnned for sure! <<,Exactly, OFG. Until they are told something else, they will be assuming that IC will be the original tribes against each other indefinitely. There would be no reason to feel out alliances with your new "mates" -- certainly not for Chuay Gahn, who are in the catbird seat at the moment. I think they will spend at least one more day living as separate tribes though. MB will want to milk that tension just a wee bit longer. And all of the activity in the preview indicated that things were still status quo. I also must congratulate you on your astute prediction of last night's scenario. Personally I think it was a cruel trick to play on them, and Shii Ann fell for it hook, line and sinker only to get thoroughly humiliated. And I really don't see the point -- it just solidified the tribal alliances by getting rid of a straggler. If everyone voted at TC, the blow would have been softened, Shii Ann would have had a chance, and more cross-pollination would have been encouraged. As it stands, none of the CG's has any incentive to align with an SJ for several episodes, assuming another SJ gets the boot next week.
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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-01-02, 01:21 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
MB may be attempting to get things back to the same feel as S1. Also, maybe it will not be a straight pagonging. I think we may see some Vee like cross tribal alliances. NOTE Brian/Penny paired in RC one tribe and Ted/Erin RC one tribe. We were not shown much if any dish between these four. We were shown Brian/Ted courting Shii, but why. I mentioned this in the Shii early show thread. MB has provided us with so much this season, there has to be some surprises on the way. We knew Shii was going to get the boot but not how it was going to play out. I am speculating that Penny is going to hang in there on the tails of Brian/Ted. 
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 07:34 PM (EST)
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33. "Answer for Fester, and philosophy of pagonging...." |
Fester, you make some excellent points that are along my lines of thinking, and I would like to try to answer it. See how y'all like this:If we look at the philosophy of pagonging really hard, there simply is no real way to stop it, other than have one tribe from Day 1 (and this would be massively unwieldy). In S1, Pagong didn't know what was happening. In S-2, the deep tribal loyalties were evident and drove the gameplay to the very end. In S-3, legitimate attempts were made to mitigate it, but they didn't work well. In S-4, some are arguing that the early swap worked, but I contend that it didn't, and that the total destruction and IC losses of Maraamu was the only thing that stopped a pagonging from happening. And... in S-4, the Rotu4 were "pagonged" after Paschal and Neleh wised up and joined S/V/K. So MB probably has figured out that there just is no way to prevent a majority from ousting a minority. Now, why is he doing it this way? I believe the answer may be found in the Ghandia boot episode (Ep. 4). As they strategized, Ghandia mentioned that the tiebreaker was taking a rock out of a bag. Not a purple rock, mind you, but a rock. Helen was also deeply concerned about this tie-break method, and actually voted Ghandia out to prevent the tie situation from happening. Ergo, despite speculation on this board, I think the players DO know what the tiebreaker is, and they want to avoid it. And (this is important), after Pappy got stoned last season, Mark Burnett would like to prevent a tie-break scenario, also. So MB actually creates a situation that will prevent a tied situation, even though it means an almost sure pagonging. He's conceding that he can't stop some form of pagonging, and placing his rocks in a different bag (so to speak). That's my theory for today. Your opinions welcome. Have at it. 
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-04-02, 04:59 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Answer for Fester, and philosophy of pagonging...." |
Dawg,Good points on pagonging. Even though it was predictable, no one would have expected it in S1, and it was surprising when it didn't happen, in it's purest form, in S2. (By purest form, I mean that Amber and Jerri left before Rodger and Lis.) In S3 and S4 both, Samboohoo and Moomoo attempted to pagong itself internally, thereby requiring EPM to intervene to keep good contestants alive. In S3, it was GenX vs Geritol, and who could conceive of the game without the conniving Teresa and the just plain wierd Frank. In S4, it was battle of the alpha males, and when you boot a guy like Hunter, someone has to intervene. Note: I don't believe that there was a "Pagong" in S4. What we saw was a cross tribal alliance. There were 3 Rotu/Moomoos who were swapped, destined to be pagonged. There were also 2 Moomoo/Rotus who were also swapped who were first in line. Their survival was only possible by working together, a strategy that hasn't ever been tried before, and Vee was able to use it to her advantage. Anyway, all that to say that in this game, a swap/switch wasn't necessary, though it had to be accounted for since everyone playing as well as watching are also students of the game. There may be alliances, but for SJ it was the workers vs the lazies, and who deserves to win that. For CG, it was voting off the weak and keeping the strong. And even as goofy as Jan is, she isn't weak. I'll bet her optimism keeps her tribe going. Now, I wholeheartedly agree that there had to be a way to break the 5-5 tie. Rather than bring it to an even-steven TC, EPM decided to play with people's minds and let the tribe determine who is the weakest. Shii Ann was the weakest mentally. She let the cat out of the Pandora's box, and no one else did, including Ken and Helen, indicating their own inner strength. Survivor is a game about survival, and here is where the strong survive and the weak are banished. Now that SJ is in the minority, can any of them survive? Yes, but we have to have 2 things happen. First, we have to have a real merge so that it is an individual game. (Note: Having the tribes live together as 2 tribes, particularly after believing they had actually merged, is bound to be a MAJOR source of tension!) Second, we have to have a cross-tribal alliance. How do you form that? Well, you have to expose an alliance. What alliances do we know about? Brian and Ted. Is that not classic EPM misdirection? Tell us the alliance only to break it up ala Rotu4 or GenX. Now we can't form this alliance until the next episode, because CG is still the dominant majority. However, once there are 3 SJ left, they can beat the alliance if they align with the outsiders, which would be Clay/Helen/Jan. Jake is tight w/Jan, and we know that he trusts women more than men. He could get his girls, after getting rid of Ken, to align w/Helen and Jan and bring himself back into the majority. At F5, it's a free-for-all, but the odds of seeing either Jan or Jake as F2 are definitely increasing, possibly beating KimJ for the highest placing mature adult or the oldest F2 player. Thanks for the post, Dawg. You have some good insights, and got me thinking.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 10:09 AM (EST)
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7. "Forced Merge" |
Just throwing this into the mix: A merge would be forced at whatever point one tribe is reduced to two members who would have to vote against each other (cancel each other out) if sent to TC. The earliest point in the game at which this could happen would be episode 7, when the merge has traditionally happened up till now. The latest this could happen would be episode 12 with only five players remaining in the game. MB likes to leave as little to chance as possible (there's always chance in there somewhere, however), but this latest twist proves that he has to have contingiency plans at his disposal.I think the merge will probably be next episode, if not then ep 9 at the latest. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-01-02, 11:58 AM (EST)
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10. "Clay comments have new meaning?" |
I was going to start a new thread, but decided against it.Could clay's comments on CG not going to TC for quite a while post Ghandia have all new meaning now. We now have three in a row for SJ. Is that enough to fulfill his slip up, or does that mean they keep members at the next tribal immunity, or the next several tribal immunities, depending on when the merge actually occurs. I was thinking the merge would occur soon, but revisiting the clay comments, I think they may not merge soon, so CG can stay out of TC even longer, Thoughts? D.R.
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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-01-02, 01:34 PM (EST)
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14. "The purple rock in Ep.9" |
I definitely think the merge isn't going to happen until the "Desperate Measures" episode (ep9). The title of Ep8, "Sleeping with the Enemy" seems to point to 2 tribes coexisiting still. MB doesn't know what's going to happen and all of the twists are planned in advance not as the show takes place, so I think he just wanted to prolong the merge to prevent a Pagonging. The fact ep.9 could be a 4v4 means it's time to whip out the magic bag of stones and some unlucky person will fall prey to that damn purple rock again. I don't see any other SJ's defecting to CG, Jake's in it for the long haul with P,E,&K.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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11-01-02, 01:47 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: The purple rock in Ep.9" |
Outfrontgirl, you need to stop reading my mind ;)Yes there WILL be a MERGE and here is why. As you know they bring back the booted contestants/jurymembers so that they can sit in on TC. This is an important part of the game. All jury members must see TC. Therefore why would MB let one bunch of people go to TC in which the booted jury member/s get to watch and prevent another group from seeing the TC? He wouldn't They merge at 9 otherwise CG would miss out on valuable TC information. Since they are all gaurenteed at least a spot in the jury it is important that they see TC.
WINNER:
Preseason pick: Clay
Ep. 1 analysis: Brian
Rooting for: Helen
UTR Winner: Jake
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 02:26 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: The purple rock in Ep.9" |
They could send both teams to TC so the winning team can observe while the losing team votes off another player. That way all jury members would see the TC.
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AresMars 283 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-02-02, 10:24 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: The purple rock in Ep.9" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-02 AT 10:28 AM (EST)Edited to fix spelling 'cause I haven't had my first cup o' joe. The jury is only supposed to observer the interaction between the remaining members. I don't see a significant difference between sending one tribe or both to TC. So what if members of the other tribe don't get to see what happened at TC, their opinions are more likely formed by their previous experineces at camp and by what in-coming jurors tell them. As I state early. Show me a vid cap of them wearing different buffs or competeing in an obviously individual RC or IC else they can go several more weeks before forced to merge. Another issue on the forced merge. What if MB's ultimate goal this season is to take the last survivor from each tribe??? How could he do it? Once one tribe gets down to two members and they as a tribe lose a IC they could compete and the winner stays and watches the other tribe off themselves for the next few weeks. The result could be CG against a SJ which is something I'd like to see. I know it's far out there but what has ever stopped MB from taking the game in an unexpecteed and even at times illogical direction. We need to ask our selves not what we would do but how far will MB go.
God Bless America
There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.
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sittem 4186 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-01-02, 02:12 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
First - I'm not a good spoiler and rarely comment here, but I find this a very interesting discussion and decided to comment. Dabo's recent comments are a lot in agreement with what I want to throw out but couldn't get on earler to do so.I wonder if EMB developed a new game plan this time that has contingencies that swing in as the tribes diminish. He wasn't working toward an evening or remixing of the tribes. His plan was to keep the originals intact as long as possible until one gets down to 2 members. As someone pointed out that could have happened as early as episode 7 and as late as episode 12. Why do this? It creates a new kind of tension and opportunities for drama, especially when they now share a beach. Obviously, MB cannot know how the tribal dynamics are going to work out going into the show, but he has to have a specific outline as to how it's going to unfold that he cannot deviate from or he'd be accused of favoritism. And, even though CG now has the advantage, there are still the possiblities of cracks in allegiances and alliances as tribes have full contact with each other. For instance, Jan or Helen could possibly be influenced toward the dark SJ side because they still have some issues with Ted and Clay. So, while tribal loyalties continue for now, there will be a subtext of wheeling and dealing going on (like Shii, but with more subtlety) because everyone now begins to think toward their end game and influencing people to vote for them if they get in the final two. It's not enough now to depend on the 5 CG voting for each other because there are flaws in relationships. And those flaws could lead someone like Helen or Ken to rethink tribal allegiances to get further toward the endgame or to curry favor for a final vote if they get there. While I'm dreading a pagonging, the mixing of the teams on the same beach could lead to new dynamics for the remaining two survivors from one tribe that makes the endgame very interesting and not as predictable. After one team gets down to two then it swings to traditional merge with individual IC's. In preparation for the show MB had to be ready with up to 11 IC's for teams and 8 for individuals. Some, but not necessarily all of either will be used. Who knows? But, something the elder Mayor Daley said in 1968 during the Democratic convention in Chicago reminds me of EMB. Shakes, help me if I've got the sense of this wrong (I didn't move to Chicago until 1972), but I think he said something like "the police aren't here to create disorder, they're here to maintain it".  2002 IceCat Originals, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 03:08 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
Just wanted to come back and say I can't argue with the website video! Guess I'm back to square one until I have time to digest all these great theories, including the idea that they don't merge until one tribe is down to 2. Some scattered thoughts:
Re the idea that Burnett wants to even the teams up by waiting one more episode: there's just no guarantee that will happen. Sook Jai never got it together to work as a team and win challenges. Strength isn't necessarily enough with these challenges (and they booted most of their strength)--you need to develop cooperation under pressure. When SJ did win, it was due to the powerful efforts of Robb, Jed, and maybe Stephanie, all gone, while Ken sat out, and Penny and Erin developed the art of throwing challenges. Meanwhile, CG became the underdogs by losing the first challenges and had to pull together. I think they have the advantage now, especially since they can sit a person out. All to argue that it's no foregone conclusion that they'll even up to 4-4. As to why they try to forge relationships pre-merge:
Sittem, your idea that they could make tentative alliances looking towards endgame and jury votes is a good explanation of why people who don't vote together for now might want to ally.
I still have trouble with this one. RE delaying individual competitions until one team is down to two:
The individual immunity competition is a key part of Survivor; the audience looks forward to it, and Burnett must take that into account when tweaking the game. And what about the individual rewards? Yes, Burnett can now show us one team grinding their teeth while another team gets a great treat or goes on an escape, but then we miss a staple of the game--the hatred suddenly directed at one or two people for leaving camp and winning a great reward. CG and SJ already are against each other, so big whoopie with the team RC's. Yawn. Timing by broadcast scheduling:
One thing that could help us is figuring out where the recrap goes in all this. The recrap SHOULD occur just post-merge so it can tie up all the prior game in a neat package. We have episode titles through Nov 14. The Finale is December 19th. If you count up the remaining episodes there is one week open for recrap, so it won't be squeezed in the same week with a new episode. If it turns up on Nov. 21, we might expect a merge in Ep 9. I hope the scheduling gets announced soon! Love the way everyone took ShiAnned and ran with it, btw. 
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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11-01-02, 05:37 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
OFG said the finale is December 19th, leaving an extra week for a recap. Hmmm.Recaps have traditionally come between the last loser lodge person and the first jury person (correct me if I am wrong). S1 and S4 didn't have one. I was thinking that MB may want to play a recap on Thanksgiving night, in case his regular viewers are busy with holiday plans. But Thanksgiving last year was the week Clarence was voted off. Hopefully MB is not stretching this out to 14 weeks so we can have a snore-fest final 3 two hour finale. I will have much better things to do 6 days before Christmas. bebe
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-02, 05:56 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
Boy do I agree that the finale of S2 was boring, but they also shot for 42 days. This is 39 days, so I think we don't have to worry about 14 episodes.S4 did have a recrap; they all have except for S1. In the Bashers archive you can find IceCat's summary complete with dancing Jiffies (a la Fred Astaire). One recrap has been played on Wednesday (S4, I'm pretty sure), with the others making for 2 weeks between new episodes. In S2 the recrap happened after Ep 8, softening Jerri just before her boot, so yes, they can vary, but always within one or two episodes after the merge. We know now there will be two people on the jury before the Nov. 21 show, so that's definitely getting on in the series even the week before Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is the last week of sweeps, so they will typically push something new even though it's a holiday. Possibly they could move Survivor to Wednesday that week, pre-amazing Race, so that the episode gets full viewership. They've moved it there before.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-02, 06:33 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-02 AT 08:32 PM (EST)Bebe, in S2 there were more days between challenges at the end. With 39 days the first 12 TC's comprise 36 days. Then the Final 4, Final 3, and Final 2 TC's are jammed into the last three days, all covered in one two-hour Finale.
The last RC occurs with 5 people left. In S2, there were three days between Rodger and Lis's boots, and the Final 4 had an RC (the conjugal visit/Pontiac Aztek). So the Finale dragged because it had 3 days with only the 2 IC's, Fallen Comrades and Hold the Idol and only 3 players in it. This history might not be spoiling per se, but it reminds me again of the short window for individual rewards, which will end with Ep 12. I do think those are fun and important for the end game, as are the more exciting individual IC's (the last two are always so boring!). How much more of the show will Burnett waste on group challenges? The audience is getting restless I suspect. Edited to answer the question why S2 was the only one with 42 days.
Because the lifeless Finale Sucked, by popular consensus.
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snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-01-02, 05:10 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
This season is about being different, "all new", paradoxes and appearances. Everything we would expect and MB wants us to keep going with conventional wisdom and tried and true manuevers. But MB wants to maintain his ratings so he HAS to mix it up otherwise the game becomes predictible and dies a slow painful death. We are all waiting on a merge, we are going back to theories that worked in the past, good, solid, proven methods of spoiling and we've been lucky because MB has been generous with bootee's. But what if that was for a reason and things get a lot more intense from here on out, what if he blows the whole thing open and does something completely different? Maybe the timelines and metrics we use won't apply anymore. This would satisfy both the spoilers and the general viewing audience. It's win-win for everyone."His plan was to keep the originals intact as long as possible until one gets down to 2 members. As someone pointed out that could have happened as early as episode 7 and as late as episode 12." NO merge until it's absolutely necessary. MB likes to hide things on us and go for the full-on shock value. Last night was DRAMA, DRAMA, DRAMA and it was exciting and fun to watch. The more I think about and hear the opinions of others the more I think this is highly plausible if not already happening. But likely I'm wrong and my imagination is working overtime.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-02, 04:47 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Missed Clue" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-02 AT 05:09 PM (EST)Well, "halfway" in terms of the stay on the island has already passed. That would've been day 19 or 20. "Halfway" in terms of players remaining would be after next week. I get the distinct impression though, that the use of "halfway" here is purposely vague. The website promo shows that immunity will once again be tribal in E8, so that means an E9 or E10 (at the very latest) merge.
 Fester
**edited because I saw the website promo after originally posting.
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survivor_matt 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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11-03-02, 08:39 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Missed Clue" |
I found the below on the official survivor website also:1.Tensions between the original tribes is at an all-time high. 2.One Survivor is particularly disgusted by the other tribe's hygiene habits in their new home. 3.Members of the original tribes feel each other out about the possibility of alliances. 4.A Survivor holds a funeral for the last-to-be-eaten chicken.
I found it interesting how in number 3 and in 1, it says, members of the ORIGINAL TRIBES. Does this mean that they merge??? Another thing about the days, 42 days, half way threw would be day 21. Just because The show ended with tribal council on day 21 doesnt mean that they don't merge right after. Just a thought. It could also be though until there are only 8 players left, but by the way they phrased it, i would think the merge would be day 21.
It also looks like Jan is gonna have another funeral!!!
Here's the link so I feel like I'm not just seeing things:
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor5/show/episode07/s5next.shtml
 
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-04-02, 11:49 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: THE MERGE: When/Will it happen" |
Either this week or next, the merge will occur.
To paraphrase FesterFan, the entire winning tribe could be in the "jury" position for this week only. Thus, the merge can not occur later than next week, or there would be a jury member, a non-participating tribe and a voting tribe. This is totally too unwieldy to occur.
Next week may be the most likely time. This gives some extra time to the "two tribes, one beach" thing. Also, the tribes will merge at 4-4 or 5-3. When one tribe has a more-than-one-player advantage, they tend to be less cohesive than when they are clinging to a one-player lead.
Either way, Ken is toast this week.
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snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-04-02, 05:07 PM (EST)
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42. "Sacrificial lamb" |
I read an interesting theory on TDT that Penny could offer up Erin as a sacrificial lamb to save herself if she believe that Jake's loyalties rested with Ken and she was the target. It would perserve her for another episode and hopefully into the merge in 8 at which point her alliance would attempt o infiltrate the dominate CG alliance.
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smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-04-02, 05:24 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: The Food & The Funeral" |
The survivor's are now required to live on the same beach, but are the Sook Jai required to share their food? The previews show us that the food is shared (Ala Helen commenting on killing the monkey for eating their bananas & the upcoming funeral for the last chicken). But Sook Jai won the food in a challenge, and obviously the food helps keep them strong. They are at a numerical disadvantage, so Stragegy says: don't share your food with the CG and try to at least bring down their morale and by denying them bananas and chicken. The CG would have to burn energy collecting their own food while they watch the other tribe indulge in tastier food, without having to work for it at all. I realize this doesn't do anything for Sook Jai as far as making friends/alliances AFTER the merge, but it would help SJ keep their strength before the official merge. SO, (getting to my point) does the sharing of the Sook Jai reward food point to an official merge? Would Jan bother to have a funeral for a chicken she doesn't even get to eat, or are the Sook Jai just being kind and sharing what food they have left?
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-04-02, 07:50 PM (EST)
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45. "Lex and the merge" |
Recent words from Lex has me thinking deeper about the merge:"I remember anticipating the merge in Africa. We all spoke of the merge, and it incensed Mark and Jeff that we were anticipating future developments in the game. It was their game — how dare we make any assumptions? They preyed on our suspicion and planted seeds of doubt in our minds that this time around, a merge might not happen at all. What? No merge? Not possible. But we chewed on those doubts for days before they finally delivered a merge precisely on the day that we had predicted. This time around, the puppet-masters got their revenge. Just when everyone thought they’d become one big, happy family, Jeff pulled the rug out from under them. " This quote highlights that the merge delay is not just about minimizing pagonging or increased suspense for viewers, it is about keeping the Survivors off-balance by keeping the game unpredictable, this results in keeping their actions unpredictable, resulting in better TV. I wonder then if MB wants to delay the merge this season for as long as possible to establish (for future Survivors and viewers) that the merge can happen anytime. This continued analysis is made on the following criteria:
1) MB wants to delay the merge as long as possible
2) All the details of the merge are prescripted
3) The Jury contains 7 people
4) The Jury and all remaining survivors will be present at all TCs.
5) Immunity is Tribal until merge.
6) All remaining Survivors vote at TC. Deduction from above criteria:
Although the details of the merge are prescripted, the date of the merge is not because it is conditional. Therefore it is the condition of the merge which is prescripted. To delay the merge for as long as possible, the merge would have to happen when there is only 1 person on a tribe. (1 person can not compete as a tribe, because if they do not win immunity in the immunity challenge, then the immunity challenge IS the Tribal Council - they would have to be the next voted out). I doubt that this will pan out, but I guess it is a possibility.
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-05-02, 09:34 AM (EST)
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49. "Merge Color Confirmed--Gold" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-05-02 AT 10:04 AM (EST)Orangeena on voteoff.tv did a little undercover work last night at the CBS store in New York. Here is his/her post: "Well, I actually have something that may be of some remote spoiler value at last. I went to the CBS store tonight in Times Square to see what was up with the latest Survivor merchandise. I was very low-key and touristy, not my usual overwhelming Orange self and when I askedthe guy at the counter if he had any other buff colors, he said, "Oh, you mean the gold one? Not yet. It's going to come in when the two tribes come together. They haven't come together yet." I asked him if he knew when he said, "No. But it's soon.
(!!!!!)
So now we now what the buff color of the merged tribes will be - GOLD and yes, that they do merge and soon. This week? No gold buffs in the store, anywhere. Next week? The week after? He had obviously seen the buffs and they were there somewhere, they just hadn't put them out yet."
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