LAST EDITED ON 10-31-02 AT 05:22 PM (EST)

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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I just want to preface this posting by making it clear I've done next to zero spoiling in the last week, so think of this whatever you may...

"What's up with the merge" is clearly this week's question. Due to limited time, I'm just going to steal sleeeve's writeup about the logic for this week's bootee selection:

We have the following spoilers that point to Shii Ann not making hte jury:
1) She is on GDiva's smoker's list. Since Ghandia would not be able to observe Shii Ann as a smoker prior to the game, during the game, or after the game, Shii Ann and Ghandia must spend time together after both are voted out but before they return to the states.

We know that GDiva basically didn't want to keep in contact with any survivors from the game except for the select few that she made friends with at loser lodge. Since the jury members are sequestered apart from the pre-jury, then Shii Ann would have to NOT be on the jury for Ghandia to be aware of her smoking habits.

...the exception to GDiva's smoker's list seems to be Clay, who was on the list, but appears likely to make the jury. Since Clay was on the same tribe, it's likely that his inclusion in the list has to do with mutual discussions about nicotine cravings while still in the game.

2) Shii Ann is one of GDiva's stars of the show. It is widely believed that GDiva was trying to "trick" the spoiling community when she listed her stars. It's far more likely that the people that she listed were people that she got to know either in the game (as with Brian) or at loser lodge (as with herself, Tanya, Shii Ann, and Robb). Since Shii Ann was never on GDiva's tribe, and it's unlikely that she would actually name any *real* stars of the show (for fear of being sued) it makes sense that Shii Ann is only included on the list due to their connection forged at loser lodge. Once again, this can only happen if Shii Ann does not make the jury.

3) Assuming a "traditional" timeline, in terms of who will eventually serve on the jury, there are seven people voted out of the game prior to the jury, the next seven form the jury, and the final two are up for a million bucks... since six have been voted out, only one more person will survive to make the jury.

4) Editing: Shii Ann's story has come full circle. She started off at odds with Jed and Robb. She has used her cunning to eliminate both of these people from the tribe. However, she is now in a vulnerable position, as she in not in a tight alliance with anyone remaining in her own tribe...

We know from the previews that one contestant will try a "new strategy". This likely means a defection, and given that people rarely trust someone willing to jump sides, whoever this person is will probably be voted out of the game.

Jan and Shii Ann are the two most vulnerable, but since Jan was the one that "drafted" her tribe, it's likely that she will not turn on them. Thus, the person to attempt a new strategy is likely Shii Ann.

Her cunning was shown to be slipping, with the crucial immunity loss last week. Now, it's time for her to go.

Merge or not, tribal or individual immunity, joint tribal council or not, the evidence clearly suggests Shii-Ann getting the boot this week, therefore she's my pick. Of course, in deference to all the Ken advocates, I'll take him as our alternate selection.

As far as how Shii gets booted, I just have this gut feeling that all this Burnett suspense if much ado about nothing, just like the so-called "swap." Assuming there is a merge with a traditional 10 player joint tribal council, KEN would seem to be RED TRIBE's clear target, however for Shii to be booted there must be some reason why they don't go after him. I think the possibilities are two-fold: 1) Ken wins the first individual immunity challenge and quickly becomes the very immunity threat that the others feared, 2) the PURPLE TRIBE properly identifies Shii-Ann as having previous votes and, not knowing what the tiebreaker rules might be in this "so-called expect the unexpected" edition of Survivor, decides to target Shii on the off chance previous votes are in play as this season's tiebreaker. Beyond that, how Shii loses a 5-5 tie vote (or whether there even is a 5-5 vote) -- who knows, but off she goes.

As I said, the assumption I'm making is that the reward challenge (if there is one, there usually isn't during Episode 7) will once again be an individual or two-member team prize. As such, given the video evidence, BRIAN seems just as a good a selection as anyone to win a possible individual reward challenge.

As far as the possibility of and individual immunity challenge,m a KEN victory would help make the theory of that the RED TRIBE targets Shii be that much more plausable, therefore KEN sounds good.)

-SB