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sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-30-02, 03:07 PM (EST) "Betting the odds" i have no idea how organized betting works and i can't even imagine how they must work out the "odds" and i'm not even sure what the "odds" mean. however, during my current stint of being out of work due to the flu i found a site on the web that gives betting odds for Survivor: Thailand. i'm not sure if this has ever been discussed over here - i just started reading and posting last season. does anyone out there know if there is ANY spoiler value to the "odds" and can we use them to make our predictions? OR do the people that make up the "odds" actually read the boards and stuff and use the information that we come up with to make the "odds?" here is one of the sites i found: Click here: sportsbook.com - Sports Book and Casino Wagering http://205.134.167.60/lines/lines.cgi?device=browser&site=sbcom2&sport=751   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Betting the odds Boilermaker 10-30-02 1    RE: Betting the odds OceanSkater 10-30-02 2    Entertainment Only IslandFever 11-01-02 12  RE: Betting the odds KevMo 10-30-02 3    RE: Betting the odds Fast Eddie 10-30-02 4        RE: Betting the odds Boilermaker 10-31-02 10    RE: Betting the odds OceanSkater 10-30-02 5        RE: Betting the odds ulalame 10-30-02 6            RE: Betting the odds OceanSkater 10-30-02 7                RE: Betting the odds ivoryElephant 10-30-02 8            winner sorgee 10-30-02 9  RE: Betting the odds Ra_8secs 10-31-02 11

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Boilermaker 260 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-30-02, 03:30 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Betting the odds" I don't know if they just post odds or allow bets. Generally several sites have setup betting since Survivor 2 for the finals. This early in the game is a little peculiar. Brian 5-8 favorite (Bet $10 Win $16.25) and Ted 2-1 (Bet $10 Win $20) are the odds leaders Not worth betting Penny however at 8-1 is interesting. Probably no spoiler value however. They are just setting bets based on what the common gambler would bet. These are definitely not indicators of how well they will do, just an indicator of what the common gambler is thinking.   Top

OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-30-02, 07:02 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Betting the odds" LAST EDITED ON 10-30-02 AT 07:04 PM (EST) OK. I'm confused. If I go to the race Track, not that I would ever go alone, take all the utilities $ and wager it while swigging a Pinot Noir at the Front Runner, as I bet on a horse with 18 to 1 odds (Shii-Ann). The horse comes in, I make good money! Correct? Correct. Where this throws me for a loop is, are we betting for them to get BOOTED or to make it another week? Unless Baffert is the owner of the Shii-Ann horse I'm not playing her even at 18 to 1 to STAY. I answered my question . You bet on them to STAY at those odds. Suckers' bet your chances are 9 to 1 your horse stays. No spoils here, I think their odds are based on a 100 to 1 people-surveyed-on-a-rainy-afternoon-in-the-not-so-distant-past-at-a-bootleg-basement-website-with-a-wanna-be-Donald-Trump-someday-webmaster. Too many freaks, not enough circuses.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 11-01-02, 01:54 AM (EST) 12. "Entertainment Only" It is illegal to bet on an event that has already happened. These odds are for entertainment purposes only. In the past they have not been accurate. Some spoilers feel Jan has a good shot of making it near to the end or winning. She is 18-1.   Top

KevMo 34 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-30-02, 07:27 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Betting the odds" Well, I can't speak to that specific site but I might be able to offer some help on how betting odds work. Typically, the house ( bookie, sports book, handicapper, whomever ) sets the initial odds as a best guess. The odds then float as bets are made. In team vs. team type betting the odds float so as to ensure equal money on both sides. Thus if the Raiders are a 7 point favorite to beat the Cowboys, that spread will go up if more money is placed on the Raides than on the Cowboys. It goes down as more money is placed on the Cowboys than on the Raiders. The spread might be 7 when betting opens but drop to 5 at game time. In horse racing its similar, as more money is placed on a horse, the market ( bettors ) have determined that it is the favorite, thus the house would have to pay out much more money unless they lower the odds, which they do. Similarly, if no one bets on a particular horse, say Jan, then the odds go up in order to attract more bettors to the Jan pick. Thus odds are simply market driven, so the fact that one "horse" say, Brian, is showing 5-2 odds where another, Jan, shows say 100-1 only tells you that most people think Brian will win.   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-30-02, 07:43 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Betting the odds" LAST EDITED ON 10-30-02 AT 07:53 PM (EST) That's exactly it. The only person not betting is the host (the bookie, track, casino or whatever). The odds are set - and altered - based on what people have been betting, so that regardless of who wins, they pay out less than they take in. The house always wins. You might say that the posted odds reflect public opinion, or at least, those of the public willing to bet. If you think those people are especially shrewd analysts, that might have spoiler value as to the results. But don't, er, bet on it. Come to think of it, I've heard that it's not legal to wager on Survivor on the grounds that it's already over. Betting is permitted only on events that haven't happened yet. Therefore, any odds set by legitimate betting establishments would be just for fun. Without being able to take anyone's money, there's really no incentive for any accuracy.   Top

Boilermaker 260 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-31-02, 09:55 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Betting the odds" As far as the legality of the issue. Fast Eddie (a gambling name if I ever heard one) you might be right regarding the legality in the US. But most sports/entertainment gambling is done through off shore books. Off Shore Books, such as the ones in Costa Rica, don't have the legal hurdles that casinos in the US do and can within reason make their own rules. Off Shore books have in fact accepted wagers on Survivor 2-4. The wagers are for the winner, but every book I have heard of places limits on wagers for this type of event. No spoiler info however at all.   Top

OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-30-02, 07:47 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Betting the odds" Hi KevMo, DO you think the odds are for the contestant STAYING ot getting the BOOT? With Shii Ann at such high odds, and Brian, low, staying would make sense. But that's equivalent to betting on a horse to NOT place???? Too many freaks, not enough circuses.   Top

ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-30-02, 08:03 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Betting the odds" LAST EDITED ON 10-30-02 AT 08:09 PM (EST) The odds listed above are, I believe, the odds of a given player winning the entire game. The odds will change weekly, as players are booted (i.e., assume that in week one, everybody was 16-1; but after watching episode 1, people fingered Brian for having the best chance of winning and run to place their bets on Bri to win at 16-1. In week two, the odds on Brian will go down to 8-1, or whatever, based upon the number of bets placed on him. Whereas, nobody, after watching the first episode, guessed Jan would win, so her odds go up, to 50-1). The closer to the end of the game, the better the odds are that a player still in the game is going to win, and, hence, the worse the payout. The bet remains the same througout--that they will win the whole kit and caboodle. So, to answer your question, in the example above, the odds are 18-1 that Shii will win, and 5-8 that Brian will win. You can read that to say, it is less likely that Shii will win, ergo, more likely she will get the boot at some point. It does not really speak to this episode per se.   Top

OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-30-02, 08:17 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Betting the odds" That makes perfect sense. Thanks for clarifying, I was thinking on a weekly basis.... Too many freaks, not enough circuses.   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 10-30-02, 08:48 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Betting the odds" Right before the first episode of survivor 2 Kel and Debb were given the best odds of winning. WINNER: Preseason pick: Clay Ep. 1 analysis: Brian Rooting for: Helen UTR Winner: Jake or Penny   Top

sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-30-02, 09:39 PM (EST) 9. "winner" about the only thing i was able to figure out was that the "odds" are for who will take the whole enchilada.   Top

Ra_8secs 1081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-31-02, 01:33 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Betting the odds" Thanks for the interesting side-view re betting and odds. It's different. Won't rehash the excellent explanations of odds determination above, but would add that in regular US horse racing, the parimutual betting system is usually in force. Odds are purely mathematically determined by a formula that takes the total amount bet, subtracts the house's take (which varies upon jurisdiction), and then divides the "available payout pool" for each dollar bet on a given horse. No real spoiler value here, I think. -- Ra, Spinning in geo/helio eccentric orbit   Top

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