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""Merge" Ep Scenarios"
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-26-02, 08:12 PM (EST)
 
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""Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
We have promo, title, and vidcap threads but I think we need a GUT thread to hash out the Ep 7 theories.I'll start by compiling the teasers into one place. It would be nice to add any other teasers from Zap2it or TV guide.
____________________________________ CBS Press Release _THE CASTAWAYS ASSUME THAT IT’S TIME TO MERGE INTO ONE TRIBE, ON "SURVIVOR: THAILAND" THURSDAY, OCT. 31, ON CBS
"Assumptions" – The castaways anticipate a merge of the two tribes, on SURVIVOR: THAILAND, Thursday, October 31 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network. According to their calculations, the survivors believe the two camps will merge into one…what they don’t anticipate are the details. New relationships are forged with caution while one castaway over-indulges in the fruits of their victory at the reward challenge. One castaway pursues a new strategy, which ultimately leads to accusations of disloyalty. And, the seventh person is voted out of the tribe. ________________________________________ Web promo text: VoiceOver:
VO> CBS Thursday.....This is the Survivor episode you've been waiting for...
JP> The two tribes will now live together on one beach
<Survivors yelling>
VO> Spirits are running high...
Brian> Jan's a lush. But with Immunity crucial... The castaways face their biggest surprise
<Survivors yelling>
JP> Something very different is about to happen
VO> Of this or any Survivor
Ted> It's always dangerous to assume.
VO> Don't miss an all new Survivor Thailand, CBS Thursday
_____________________________________________ First promo video VoiceOver:
JP: Brian becomes the life of the party, but pays a heavy price.
Brian: (Throwing up)
Ted: Here you go. (Handing Brian a towel)
JP: Ken confronts Shii Ann, and questions her loyalty.
Ken: If she does turn, the rest of her life she'll be considered a rat.
JP: And the big question... will the two tribes merge?
JP: Today something very different is happening.
_________________________________________ CBS website text teaser ON THE NEXT SURVIVOR
The two tribes anticipate a merger between them, but what they don't anticipate are the details. New relationships are forged with caution, while one castaway parties a bit too hard. One castaway pursues a new strategy, which leads to accusations of disloyalty. A seventh person if voted off the island.
____________________________________________-
I'll reply to my own post to start the discussion, as this post is already long. 
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-26-02, 08:48 PM (EST)
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1. "Chronology/what do we know?" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-26-02 AT 09:13 PM (EST)Let's see if we can put the promos/action in order: 1) RC or ceremonial pairing for unknown reason The painting and painted circle scenes come first.
This is where Jeff says:
The two tribes will now live together on one beach Everyone cheers. Note he does not say they will merge into one tribe. That's an assumption.
We need to figure out whether this is a challenge and what is signified by pairing opposing genders and tribes. Is this a lasting pairing or a break-the-ice moment? Do they compete in a challenge or not? Since JP announces the news about living on one beach at the circle, it APPEARS that there's no ambassador exchange this ep. None of the teasers suggest that people go on a quest of are chosen. IF there's been an inter-camp exchange, it must have already occurred, as JP is announcing a done deal. 2) Drinking celebration Same night as "RC" circle because in Jan's drinking shot she is still painted blue. We have daytime caps that show Shii Ann, Clay, and Brian together in the water, and a shot of Brian with Penny. I think Brian's holding a wine bottle in the water. That would indicate
they are partying together as in a traditional merger feast, rather than that there's been a group or individual reward. The nighttime caps show Brian and Jan drinking too much. We only see CG.
Hypothesis: the tribes are sleeping in different spots on the beach. 3) The tribes walking, are they coming to IC?
Brian's shirt looks aqua, and Ted's purple, but at the IC Brian is in gray shirt and Ted in blue. If the caps show the tribes arriving at IC in the usual groups. This supports the idea that they have not merged into one. 4) Jiffy's big surprise Jeff's announcement must come when they arrive for IC. He is standing, as are Ted and Ken, and there's no paint on them. The promo hypes this moment as:
"with Immunity crucial... The castaways face their biggest surprise Of this or any Survivor JP to players> Something very different is about to happen Ted> It's always dangerous to assume. Ted is wearing his red buff standing next to Ken when he speaks. The fact that he has old buff shows they haven't officially merged. The fact he's standing next to Ken shows they have dropped tribal formation, either when they arrived (due to an assumption) or perhaps in response to Jeff's orders. Spec:
Ted speaks either in response to Jeff's revelation
OR
Jeff asks him and the others about their assumptions before he drops the bombshell on them.
I think this scene comes before the challenge even though it follows it in promo, because they don't look dirty/tired and Ted has red buff. 5) Immunity Challenge
This will doubtless get its own thread, but for purposes of figuring out the merge details: 1) I don't see ANY buffs in the caps. Has Jeff taken them? 2) We see the SJ girls in a line; we see Brian and Ted in proximity when Ted falls down. They are likely tied together in some fashion as well as shackled, or told to stay together.
I see no evidence they are competing individually or in new groupings.
(Nice symbolism of the ties that bind, MB!) 6) Shii Ann's conversation with Ken Ken confronts Shii Ann, and questions her loyalty.
Ken: If she does turn, the rest of her life she'll be considered a rat. If this occurs after IC, that indicates to me that Shii Ann has an option to turn. This makes sense if they merge into one tribe. If they are still competing and voting as tribes, what is the point of Shii Ann switching her loyalty? Shii Ann is fraternizing with the enemy (Brian and Clay) during the celebration. We need to know when Ken confronts her. Her hair is in double French braids and she's not painted and is wearing the black sports bra, not the pink shirt from RC/celebraiton. I can't tell from my blurry vidcaps if her hair was this way all episode. Can anyone? OK, let's go and nail this one to the wall!
Yes, and question all our assumptions, mine included...
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-26-02, 09:31 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Immunity Challenge" |
Cool, sweat pea!
One less thing.Now what will the vote rule be, I wonder? 1) The losing tribe votes out a member. 2) They all vote together but all members of the winning tribe are immune and they can only vote for the five losers. (Someone suggested this to me; it's not my own idea.) This scenario would allow a switch vote to have some clout; it's a complicated idea, but interesting. 3) The winning tribe only gets to vote out an opposing member.
This would make the strong man (Ken or Ted) a sitting duck. I doubt MB wants this to happen. I think he wants the losing tribe to regret their prior boot choice strategy, because he likes to punish players for "playing the game" according to strategy learned from prior Survivors. This time around, Sook Jai had it down about voting out strong players, whereas CG voted out challenge liabilities (other than John the misfit). CG had a better strategy for true survival in that sense. This scenario would reward them.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-27-02, 01:48 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Immunity Challenge" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-27-02 AT 02:22 AM (EST)Yogi,
I'm as sure as I can be that the drinking happens the same day and evening as the Circle meeting. I think they go back to the beach after the announcement (and after any challenge that may be involved)--mostly likely the food and drink are waiting for them at the beach. We have pics of them playing in the water that day, presumably celebrating this new phase of the game. Shii Ann in the water is wearing the same pink top as in the circle; then we have night shots of Brian and Jan (still painted) getting sick and falling down, respectively.
That accounts for Day One. IF there is an RC, that circle with pairs is surely part of it, but the promo may be sloppily written and there is no real RC, as Ebug and dabo suggest on the Press Release thread. It looks to me like they are all getting in on the feast as in a typical merge, only for the first time there's a feast BEFORE the tribes merge and get new buffs. In S4 there was some allusion to Rob and Kathy's "quest" and feast as a reward, but it wasn't a challenge. So if the pairing is not a challenge, what is it? A ritual? An assignment to go relate to the person with whom you're paired? I don't know. Location:
They either go to Sook Jai beach or a new location, because CG camp has the water hole difficulty and no boat. Can anyone recognize the beach? I am so bad with recognizing scenery that I see on TV... Edited to say that maybe there are rock formations at the "merge beach" because Ken does his confessional in front of them and those might be rocks behind the people in the water, and there are rocks behind Jan drinking. I just can't tell if it's CG or a new location.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-02, 09:52 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Immunity Challenge" |
Actually, I've been struggling with an idea I like which was brought up last week, RC used to determine which tribal camp will become the merger camp. So, as speculation, let's say the two tribes are brought together at a new (neutral) location, given various merger rituals to perform, and left together to get to know one another with a feast, spending the night at that location. The next day they are unexpectedly thrown into one final team reward challenge, to determine which tribe will retain their home, Chuay Gahn or Sook Jai. Given this situation, I would suspect that Sook Jai would likely win, given the boozing material we've been shown of Brian and Jan (but this is a secondary speculation to the main one of this post).What I don't like about this, needless to say, is the cramming of two challenges and a merger into one episode. It could be done, but it does seem problematic.  ARRRRRRR!!!!
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-27-02, 02:04 AM (EST)
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11. "party pics" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-27-02 AT 02:26 AM (EST)Here's one of Jan drinking in daytime with rocks behind her.
She's painted, in old buff. 
Here are Brian, Clay, and Shii Ann with Brian holding a bottle. Possibly same rocks on the shore? 
Here's Ken's confessional about Shii Ann with rocks behind him. 
I'm confused about these rock formations ... need help from the resident vidcap geniuses!
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-26-02, 10:30 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Immunity Challenge" |
>>How do we reconcile a standard tribe IC, seemingly evidenced by showing Jan, Ted and Brian seen together in orange cage, with the 6/4 odd groupings around the circle?That's certainly one of the large questions, Spidey, and a great one to put at the top of the list here. Before we get fixated on the idea of 4-6 being lopsided--there's the simple explanation that if you have 5 pairs you can't seat them evenly as you have 3-2. I'm thinking that when they arrived each tribe took a side, and then when Jeff sorts them he tells two colors to be on one side and the rest on the other as a way of getting the pairs together. Who knows where they go from there, but this grouping is not necessarily an opposition. For now I'm thinking in terms of 5 pairs, each of a man/woman, CG/SJ. MB must have assigned paint colors by gender or else the odds dictate one or more pairs would be same sex.
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phonarr 29 desperate attention whore postings
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10-27-02, 03:12 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Immunity Challenge" |
Is it possible that they live together on the same beach, but as their original tribes, with the IC loser making their final trip to TC as a unit? THis would be different from any previous survivor with a possible merge at "Sleeping with the enemy" and it would also allow the first jury member (at least) 6 days with the final 2.
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VanQ 87 desperate attention whore postings
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10-26-02, 10:29 PM (EST)
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6. "colors buffs and handcuffed" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-26-02 AT 11:09 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-26-02 AT 11:05 PM (EST) I discussed some of this in another thread but is definitely worth discussing here. Thanks OFG for the great detailed work, much appreciated. PRISONERS
I do believe that this challenge is based in the history of Turatao as a prison island. 1.ENDURANCE VS RACE
I think the JAIL might be a type of maze, although typically the first challenge of the merge is an endurance challenge. The teams do not look like they are moving quickly through the jail, so it doesnt NOT look like a race requiring quick moves therefore it may still be an endurance challenge. HOWEVER it might involve the whole team. 2. SOOK JAI VS CHUAY GAHN
The teams do enter into the JAIL in their groups SJ and CG. 3. THE COLOR OF JAIL
One thing I have to disagree with is Sweetpea assessment, I do not think you can tell the color of the jail in Sook Jai. They have tinted the film blue and there is no way of telling exactly what color the jail is painted.
 Also, the Chuay Gahn jail is ORANGE, not the RED of Chuay Gahns buffs.
 I also think that MB is trying not to let us see that the remaining tribe has now merged in a usual fashion with orange as the color. That is why the blue tint on the Sook Jai Jail. He is trying to make us speculate similarly to the whole Men vs Women promos. I believe that we have our merge color, and that the buffs/tribe color will all be orange. I speculated long before the cbs store had these buffs that the merge color would be ORANGE. In 3 of the last 4 logos the merge color is represented in the area surrounding the word SURVIVOR. See the orange in Jans buff around the word Survivor?
4. SHACKLED SOOK JAI (PRISONERS)VS FREE CHUAY GAHN
It shows pretty clearly that JAN BRIAN AND TED have no handcuffs or shackles on their ankles.
Sook Jai is definitely shackled when they enter the jail. Could this be a prisoner vs guard type of challenge?? Is Ted caught in a trap set by the prisoners? In the actual video he seems to be in quite a bit of pain.
So summarizing,
1. Prisoner/Jail challenge not a race, perhaps endurance of teams
2. Tribes have merged but compete in their former configuration
SJ vs CG
3. ORANGE is the new buff and color for the whole merged tribe
4. Challenge involves PRISONERS VS GUARDS
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-26-02, 11:49 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: colors buffs and handcuffed" |
hey VanQ--
thanks for the thanks.
btw I forgot to say the obvious that this was for everyone to discuss with everyone else and not just reply to me. I assumed that would happen but with all my replies it might look like I'm trying to guide the thread--not so...About the colors, I also thought CG was red and SJ purple, but the store makes it clear that CG red is actually burnt orange: Survivor: Thailand Buffs
Show your team spirit in the "buff," available in purple or burnt orange. The third color isn't up yet; I see gold as the other color in the logo. This just "dawned" on me, and if it's been said before I apologize, but the burnt orange and purple could be symbolic of sunrise and sunset--the terms by which Jan and Jake were asked to determine camps. (I forget who chose which, but either color could be in sunrise or sunset). So it the merge color is Gold, that could symbolize High Noon, which is the halfway point in the sky, and also symbolic in our culture of the classic "showdown"--due to the Western of that name. RE the challenge, good call that it's a culturally-based challenge. I wonder if they have to collect things at stations as in Shackles and Chains, and whether there's a story to recall. That was always an individual challenge before. As for endurance and/or balance--those are traditional for the first individual challenge more than for the merge; the two always coincided before. It was about which person could demonstrate the greatest ability to adapt (balance) and show the will to stay (endurance). This certainly looks grueling though, but I think there's probably a race, or Ted wouldn't be falling down.
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
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10-27-02, 12:32 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: colors buffs and handcuffed" |
This pic is bothering me. IF we assume that this is taken before the prison challenge, Ted is wearing his buff and his shirt looks sweaty and dirty unless that is just shadows. 
Then, in the pic of him falling down in the orange jail, he is not wearing his buff on his head anymore. Why would he remove it for the challenge?
Also, just wondering if perhaps the sequence of pictures is wrong. Could they assume they are competing for tribal immunity, go through the challenge, and then afterwards, Jiffy informs them that there is a new twist to the voting. Ted looks like he is asking a question and Ken is looking at him as he speaks. I like the idea of the entire winning team getting immunity.
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AZ_Leo 3526 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-02, 05:30 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: colors buffs and handcuffed" |
How much faith can we put in the buff colors or even in the set colors? The editors have shown themselves to be quiet good at digitally altering colors in the past, especially for previews. Those nice neat squares and lines would be pretty easy to alter with a few clicks.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-27-02, 02:20 AM (EST)
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12. "Shii Ann's hair" |
Here are 3 stages of Shii Ann through the episode.1) At the Circle/RC, clearly has no French braids.
 2) At Jiffy's announcement prior to IC (same exact background as Jeff, Ted/Ken, Brian). She has double French braids.
 3) Ken confronting Shii Ann. Has the braids.
 So does he confront her: 1) BEFORE IC when she has been assuming a regular merge and cultivating the enemy, which then bites her hard when she has to stay with SJ?
OR
2) After IC, which means she ends up in a position to hurt him and/or SJ by turning. Ken his wearing his usual black shirt at IC and with SA. Not much help from him with wardrobe changes!
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-27-02, 05:41 AM (EST)
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14. "My Current Theory" |
I guess there's some virtue in posting up a storm for a day:
I finally worked my way to a theory that works for me.
I'd of course like some feedback!I have steadfastly resisted voting for Shii Ann this season and had gotten into the mindset (nudged by Paratrooper hints) that she's the Kathy of S5. But instead I think she may be Kelly Goldsmith redux. Occam's Razor:
Forget all the tangential candidates like Jake, Ken, and Erin. Every boot this season has been set up by story. Only Shii Ann and Jan go into the episode with a boot story in place. In prior Survivors they would have been saved by the merge, but not this time. This is how I envision it going down: The merge will be delayed by one episode. Only the jury will make the merged tribe, but the first juror will get the usual six days with the Final Two because they are sleeping on the same beach and interacting. The pairing up at RC turns out to be much symbolic ado about nothing--forming new relationships, blah blah blah. They all go to the same beach and some get wasted. They assume the merge will be announced at the IC. They all think there will be a tie vote. Diabolically, MB allows them a day between the quasi-merge and the IC/TC in which to form new relationships with backstabbing potential. Shii (I hate this tribe) Ann does court the opposite side, and employs this new strategy because she is in the position to throw her swing vote at SJ, specifically at Ken, the CG target/challenge hog threat. Ken confronts her and tells her why she shouldn't turn and be labelled a rat forever and ever. Not only will she screw him over, but her whole tribe will go down to a minority. She says, yeah, it'll do you guys good to know how it feels to be a minority. (just kidding with that last part.) Ken gets a story line, finally, and a spike in face time.
We are worried all episode that Ken is going home. Surprise! Biggest Surprise ever!
The immunity is a straightforward tribal competition with losing tribe voting out a member. Nothing new except that they spent the last two days assuming the IC would bring a merge, individual IC, tie vote, possible purple rock or betrayal.
In a stunning demonstration of Instant Karma, SJ loses IC because they booted their challenge MVPs, and Jiffy's questions about why they were booting Robb when he was winning their challenges for them become oh-so-ironic in retrospect. SJ boots Shii Ann in a TC so unsuspenseful that there's little or no time spent trying to convince us Erin's getting the boot. SJ hands Shii Ann the Kelly Goldsmith award for being a devious bitch and fraternizing with the enemy. She goes and makes friends with her fellow minority woman, the Gone Diva, whereas Jed/Steph/Robb hang together and don't bother to acknowledge her existence. The beach alliance is sufficient unto itself, plus they are all thoroughly beguiled by the lovely Tanya. Episode 8: Merge. Each tribe has to sleep with the enemy.
Ken wins IC or he's toast. Alternate Jake. Pagonging begins. Wow, it feels good to get all decisive for a change. Hope it lasts more than 12 hours! OK, now have at my scenario and poke it full of holes!
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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings
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10-27-02, 11:35 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: My Current Theory" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-27-02 AT 11:41 AM (EST)I just don't think Shii is going thats all... My 5 plausible boots are: Clay,Ken,Jan,Shii Ann,and Jake However Clay and Ken are way up there..I think one of them is leaving I think that Shii is going in episode 8..going along with the title "sleeping with the enemy"..I mean the only other thing that could be is just SJ and CG sleeping together in the same camp but that is so stupid..so I doubt that..I feel that episode 8 is going to focus heavily on Shii defecting..but episode 7 will focus alot on the twists and turns and surprises for the remaining 10..along with a interesting IC... However, dont get me wrong OFG..you have a very possible outline of episode 7..but there is 1 flaw #1. We dont know actually when Ken confronts Shii Ann..yes her hair is braided during there confrontation and at the IC..but did it happen before or AFTER?..If we could figure out that much it would really help
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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10-27-02, 01:16 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: My Current Theory" |
Wow! Great work this week, OFG. I think your scenario is very, very plausible. The only thing that's troubling me is the idea of a Shii Ann boot. We have been shown very little of the internal scheming of the SJ tribe, so we can only guess at this point where the strong internal alliances lie. One of the main reasons EPM conceals this information is to attempt to add surprise to the game (i.e. concealing the allaince between Colby and Tina). Shii has been so set up as the perenially at-risk one, only to survive week after week a la Kathy. We did see a scene where Jake expressed that he would "protect" Shii. And, we did see a scene where Robb said that everyone but Ken had lied to him about their votes in prior episodes, most prominently Penny about the Jed vote (Robb thougth she was going to vote for Shii, instead she and the rest of the SJ five voted for Jed). Otherwise, we know very little about the internal workings of the SJ allaince. What if Shii really is at the center of it, and Ken (the only one who didn't lie to Robb) is the odd man out? It fits with the SJ strategy thus far of voting out people who will be threats after the merge. Ken is also shown in the vidcaps confronting Shii on her "loyalty." What better red herring than that, to make us assume Shii is the one on the outside? If indeed there is a semi-merge where the tribes sleep together but have to still compete for immunity along tribal lines, and the Sookies have to go back to tribal council one more time before the true merge, I think the surprise would be if the Sookies booted Ken themselves, rather than Shii. It could just be my own wariness of voting for Shii again--she's like a cat with nine lives. However, I thought I'd throw this out there for consideration.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 03:28 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: My Current Theory" |
I just can't see Erin voting out Ken. Erin has always seemed to be hanging with Ken and very close to him. But we have heard that Erin does not like Shii Ann. And Erin is closer with Penny than Shii Ann is. So the group booting Ken before Shii Ann is hard for me to believe.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
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10-27-02, 06:33 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: My Current Theory" |
Outfrontgirl, you took the words right out of my head.I think, as jeff said, both tribes will live on the same beach, but still be seperate. The first challenge will be for team immunity. I also correllated ShiiAnn to Kelly G just like you did. And the irony of Robb and jeffs commments were great. -congratulations to Clay Jordan, the winner of survivor Thailand-
UTR Winner: Penny or Jake
Rooting for: Helen
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-02, 00:08 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: My Current Theory" |
I don't agree with your theory about Shii Ann. There is a good spoiler that she will make the jury, and that is that Jed had really mean things to say about her. Also, Tanya had nice things to say about Jed. If Jed was talking trash about Shii in the LL and Shii was there, then I don't think Tanya would be so fond of him. It makes sense to me that Shii is sequestered. I think Shii may waver, but Ken has the big target on him, regardless. CG would rather recruit shii for a week and vote out ken, the immunity threat, instead of target little Shii. The Charlotte Factor is still in play, the weakest will be at an advantage to dodge the votes of their opponents. All of Sook Jai will have to believe that Shii is going to turn on Ken for them to forsake a tie for a disadvantage and vote for her. They will have to let all of CG know, too, and if Shii finds this out then she will might join with (or be recruited by) CG to vote off Ken, whom they wanted to vote out in the first place. I think Shii is too smart to get snookered on both sides. She'll have one or the other figured out. But I'm dumbstruck as to who will get booted. If ALL the remaining TC are tribal, then the CG weight loss spoilers are of less value, because it probably won't be a pagong situation. I think Ken is most vulnurable on Sook Jai, and maybe Clay on CG whose past votes could surface. I think the possibility of Clay's past votes may surface easier than Shii's, because SJ seems to be already playing the mental/personality game really hard. MM
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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-02, 00:20 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: My Current Theory" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-02 AT 00:22 AM (EST)I agree! That is yet another reason why I don't feel Shii is next! Yes it is really easy to make the decsion that Shii has to be next considering Shii has been this "LL definite" since even the show began and was on Ghandia's star and smoker list..but the way Jed commented about her was pretty bad...Yes Jed and Stephanie traveled..BUT Robb also said he spent time with Jed and Stephanie alot of his time at LL..obviously if Shii went to loser lodge..she would have interacted with most everybody and would have spoken her peace about everything that happened in the game..and I think Jed would have respected her alot more, but it seems like Jed only knew the Shii IN the game when speaking of her in his interviews, not the real Shii out of the game
This assumption holds true..bc name ONE survivor that spoke bad of another who they spent time with at LL???..They all liked eachother or had nice things to say about eachother even if they didn't like eachother in the game... I think it is a pretty solid evidence to back up Shii making the jury, I am not saying she is going on all the way, but I strongly think she will make the jury..even Shakes said it himself..lol Any thoughts?
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-02, 03:47 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: My Current Theory" |
>LAST EDITED ON 10-28-02
>AT 00:22 AM (EST) >That is yet another reason why
>I don't feel Shii is
>next! Yes it is really
>easy to make the decsion
>that Shii has to be
>next considering Shii has
>been this "LL definite" since
>even the show began and
>was on Ghandia's star and
>smoker list..but the way Jed
>commented about her was pretty
>bad...Yes Jed and Stephanie traveled..BUT
>Robb also said he spent
>time with Jed and Stephanie
>alot of his time at
>LL..obviously if Shii went to
>loser lodge..she would have interacted
>with most everybody and would
>have spoken her peace about
>everything that happened in the
>game My opinion on that is that he was saying that for show. He got time to console with Shii at loser's lodge, but during his interview, either decided to play somewhat of an act and made harsh comments about her, or he is a very vengeful person who doesn't forgive easily at all. Another thing that points at her is that her story looks almost complete. She didn't get along with most of the tribe, but has gotten time to reconcile recently. She even reconciled with Robb somewhat. When someone is shown in the way Shii was shown, they are usually given some form of reconciliation with the audience so that she doesn't go off looking like a total #####, and people won't remember them as "the a-hole" or "the b!tch" of the series. MB has usually started the reconciling with the audience one episode before their actual boot. Some may also think that Shii is deeper into the alliance than we are being shown. Well, I say that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes that cigar is Cuban. Some want to believe that Shii is that Cuban cigar, and better than most. I think she is just a plain old cigar, and she is about to be smoked. Shii, Fidel has spoken. "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham
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OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-29-02, 11:29 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: My Current Theory" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-02 AT 11:44 AM (EST)And if the cigar was in Bill Clinton's possession, I want nothing to do with it! Actually, I think Jed is a person who can hold a grudge, especially when he finds out his boot was orchestrated by Cigarilla. You have all mentioned that we have not seen all the alliances, and I think Shii Ann has stayed this long because after realizing in the first episode she would be the boot without IC win (see vidcap at CBS) she got busy ...smashing the beef, ya know? She hung out with Erin and Penny, while Step and Jed were busy distancing themselves. Steph and Robb were the only two surprized at Jed's boot. She played kissy kissy with Papa Jake, who took her under his cowboy hat, and she knew that Robb would be easy to boot after those two were gone. She was more contemptious of Robb since day one, but yet the other two went first. Why do you boot your three best players first? To make good cop, Ken happy. I think he and Shii are playing good cop, bad cop. He's been pretty distant but always voted with her, as did the others. So we've had an alliance of 5. She is not much of a threat as far as challenges so one of the guys is going. May be why she blew the last puzzle, to make sure Robb would go and at the same time to not look too intimidating to the others, mentally. (For that reason she has also refrained from singing the alphabet, keeping in mind the intimidation factor it would have on Erin) So maybe Ken talks to her about veering from their well planned out maneuvers, when he finds out she wants him booted. Jake of course is napping and of no threat to anyone. There's always the Patriot missile, Jan as the secret weapon, to keep him occupied and distracted should he regain reality. This takes her and the girls into the merge with a solid 5 girls to 4 guys advantage, Jake and Clay not exactly threatening. She obviously hasn't crossed Helen yet. I think Erin can be talked into anything, Penny is a tougher one, Jake is a piece of cake. All she needs is Erin and Jake. I may be giving her more credit than she deserves, but I was playing it out like an 8th grade cheerleading try out where they all pledged to be best friends for life but one has to be eliminated and it's YOU! (Now talk about a VICIOUS group!) All of a sudden, your cheerleading dreams come crashing down and you spend the next 25 years bitter chasing after the elusive maggot who planned your demise. Next thing you know you are stripping in a sleazy joint and Fidel tips you with cigars. You drink to sleep, drink to wake up, drink in between. "I could have been a contender..." "Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!" replies Fidel, "why don't you just come to Cuba with me?" And without ever turning back, you leave not knowing that you will finish out your days rolling cigars, you! who couldn't even roll a joint!
 Too many freaks, not enough circuses.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-02, 05:57 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: My Current Theory" |
Thoughts? Well, I think bergdogg's answer is a good one.I agree that the Sook Jai attitude towards Shii Ann is the best reason to think she makes the jury, which is a belief I was wedded to for a bit. My theory in a nutshell is that the three SJ's who were all the Beachsleeper's Alliance and all get booted in a row have each other by the time boot #7 arrives. Jed and Robb both mention Tanya and she mentions Jed as a great friend. It looks to me like the young athletic people hang out together. So even though Ghandia had Tanya at first, by the time the LL is up to six occupants, Ghandia is more or less on the margins, and when Shii Ann shows up she's in the same position, and they bond. If Robb or Jed were isolated with Shii Ann, of course they would spend time with her, but we KNOW that these three are already together and with lovely Tanya prior to Boot #7, which is enough for a party. My theory is that they act more or less the same as they did in the game and pursue their natural friendships and leave the two outsiders, Shii Ann and Ghandia, to talk about sexual harassment, feminism, what it feels like to be a minority on the show, and, of course, to smoke. Robb goes travelling around Thailand with Jed and Stephanie for sure. I don't know who else goes along, maybe the whole group, maybe not. If it's like the safari in S3, the group will leave right after the last pre-jury boot arrives, and Robb will be on an excellent adventure with his buddies and not cooped up in a hotel in Phuket. So I think it is likely that he and the other BeachSleepers ignore Shii Ann and leave the two city girls to have their own bond. But that's just my opinion.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-02, 10:20 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: My Current Theory" |
Great theory, OFG! I would need some more convincing, however, because mainly I am not convinced that MB would simply decide to drop the traditional merger in ep 7 before filming even began. Regardless of what anyone (myself included) believes about how fixed or flexible MB's plans for each series are, he himself has always presented the situation as having been fixed with the exception of making allowances for unforeseeable circumstances (a planned RC delayed because the tape from Jenna's family hadn't arrived, Skupin's accident causing the cancellation of what would have been the final team immunity challenge).In essence: for all he knew before filming began, one tribe would be horribly outnumbered at this point, even with the make-your-own-choice-swap in place, and so the whole thing would be pretty anticlimactic anyway. Not his style. Furthermore, Banana Cop Ken had a big spike in face(story)-time last episode, leading into the confrontation with Shii Ann. My suspicion is that if Shii Ann were to turn against Sook Jai, Ken would only have himself to blame for having forced her to face the fact that she is a fifth wheel in her tribe, something along those lines. Or, alternately, it is a straightforward merge (but with some sort of prison game), the TC ends up in a tie, the purple rock is brought out: MC is just putting out the stops to avoid having the whole world realize what a fiasco he has made of his own game. ARRRRRRR!!!!
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-02, 02:09 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: My Current Theory" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-02 AT 02:18 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-28-02 AT 02:13 PM (EST) OFG, I'm loving your Current Theory. It could definitely happen the way you see it. But I'm not sure Shii Ann's boot story is complete. I find it odd that after two Sook Jai TC's where her boot potential was played up to the hilt, it turned into a virtual non-factor for Ep 5. Some have speculated that she intentionally sabotaged the Ep 5 IC, which I initially disagreed with, but now I am not so sure. In any case, I think Ep 5 may have served as a pivot for Shii Ann's story to swing in another direction. I am going to quote the end of your theory, with changes. The parts in CAPS (can't do bold or ital) are my additions/replacements for your text: >>Surprise! NOT QUITE Biggest Surprise ever!
The immunity is a straightforward tribal competition with ONE ORIGINAL TRIBE LOSING IMMUNITY. Nothing new except that they spent the last two days assuming the IC would bring a merge, individual IC, tie vote, possible purple rock or betrayal. In a stunning demonstration of Instant Karma, SJ loses IC because they booted their challenge MVPs, and Jiffy's questions about why they were booting Robb when he was winning their challenges for them become oh-so-ironic in retrospect. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHII ANN WILL BE BOOTED AFTER ALL><< Now this part is mine:
But ---
BIGGEST SURPRISE EVER!
Then they learn that, having spent the last few days getting to know each other, EVERYONE, including the immune CGs, gets to vote off one of the losing tribemembers. The 5 CGs target Ken of course. Jake, Erin, Penny, and Ken have no choice but to vote for Shii Ann. Shii Ann cannot vote for herself, so she targets the person that confronted her about switching sides: Ken. Why not? -- CG is voting for him. Ken gets the boot 6-4. Shii Ann may then get heaved in Episode 8, but I'll have to think about that some more. I suspect Ken's spike in face time last week didn't just have to do with Robb. The four SJ no-shows have to start entering the spotlight soon, and in Ken's case I think it will have been just in time to get booted. And I am becoming more and more convinced that Shii Ann and Ghandia do not become friends until the game is over. At that point Tanya will have left, and neither of them will have ANYONE to talk to except each other, having essentially alienated all of their former tribemates. *edited (twice) to fix typos
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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10-28-02, 04:55 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: My Current Theory" |
That is an excellent point! If, as is now being widely assumed, the two groups "merge" but still compete as tribes, what scenario would lead to a Shii-Ann boot this episode? The CG wouldn't target her unless they knew about her past votes, and that would presuppose a traditional merge followed by individual immunity only.If it is two tribes and everyone votes, then there are really only two choices for this weeks boot: Ted and Ken. And if the two tribes competing for IC continues, they'll both be out soon. Each tribe would go for the biggest guy on the opposing tribe to remove them from future team ICs, just like they would on individual, but the choices are much more limited. Maybe this "one group, two tribes" concept won't be as boring as I'd feared. 
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-02, 07:25 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: My Current Theory" |
I too have the feeling that both tribes will vote. Probably because it makes more sense for Ken to question Shii Ann's loyalty now, if she is somehow trying to get the other tribe to choose Ken as the boot. Last week when Shii said that she doesn't trust Erin and Penny any more than they trust her, makes me wonder if they don't have an alliance among the three of them. Jake has already stood up for Shii in the past. I am wondering if Ken isn't the one on the fringe in SJ. Ken stated over and over that he was honest with Robb, and told him everything he knew. If Ken was in an alliance, why would he be feeding Rob information? I'm really leaning towards a Ken boot at this point. I'm even thinking he was next in line at SJ anyway. 
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-02, 04:14 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: My Current Theory" |
true,
here is my reasoning that only the losing team votes:
Burnett wants to give the tribes six days together before they take each other on and automatically target each other according to old patterns copied from prior editions of the game.Survivor 2 proved that 3 days is not enough to allow cross-tribal relationships and trust to be established. The ratings suffer when nobody breaks tribal lines. The swaps helped that happen, more in S4 than S3. With six days, people have enough time maybe to find out who is on the outside of the core alliances and to talk about pulling an underdogs' coup a la S4. Will it happen? I don't know. But this twist (I am arguing for) provides opportunity. Besides which, when you really think about the dynamics of 10 people voting against 5 targets with 5 people being immune, it gets really messed up. The immune people have no consequences to fear if there's a deadlock, which there will be. I believe Burnett's purpose in delaying the merge by one episode is to avoid a deadlock tie. The purple rock was a dud of epic proportions. Merging at 9 at least allows the majority team to have earned their position by winning IC rather than a rock draw.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-02, 12:19 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: My Current Theory" |
OFG, you may be right. Your scenario perfectly sets up a Shii Ann boot; I was just trying to use your basic scenario to see how a Ken boot might happen. To me, either way seems inherently unfair to the tribe that has to lose a member, but I don't know if one way is more unfair than the other. I just wanted to point out, though, that, with 10 people voting against 5 targets, you couldn't get the typical deadlock, and it could encourage crossing tribal lines. The five who are immune would likely all target the same person, assuming they can confer ahead of time. But the five who are not immune have to vote for one of their own. Four of them would likely choose the same person. But that person cannot vote for him/herself, and would have to vote for one of the other four non-immune people. So you could wind up with a 5-4-1 vote. Or a 9-1 vote, if four non-immunes vote with the 5 immunes. Or a 6-4 vote, if one non-immune person switches sides, etc. Of course, a free-for-all vote might result in a 5-5 deadlock, but it couldn't be along precise tribal lines.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-02, 03:34 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: My Current Theory" |
OFG, I agree that having an immune CG tribe able to vote does seem a little out there, but what are the alternatives? I think we can agree that the tribes live together (as separate tribes assuming a merge) from early on this episode. They get painted up, meet at the rock circle and go home to one location to get drunk and mingle. They still are 2 separate tribes at this point, but assume they are merged. Then they go to the IC and learn that they will compete as 2 tribes. One tribe gets immunity, the other loses a member. From here it could go a few ways. 1. Whichever tribe loses immunity goes to TC alone and boots one final member before traditional merge. Then the pagonging would begin. 2. Both tribes go to TC, but only the losers vote. This would create the same pagonging next week. 3. Both tribes go to TC and both tribes vote. This scenario, would most likely end up with a pagonging too, but, it would be the best scenario for making cross tribe alliances. Maybe they all show up at TC, and surprise! new buffs are handed out, and they vote as one group. Or, the new buffs are handed out right after IC, and then there is 24 hours of frantic SJ members trying to win over CG members. The thing that makes me think this is most likely, is Ken confronting Shii Ann about loyalty. Why would he need to do this if SJ planned to pick of Shii all by themselves? SJ has targeted immunity threats up to this point, and I think they would continue to do so, merge or not. I see Ken having a Lex type paranoia moment when he sees Shii Ann getting along with the CG's, and he realizes that CG sees him as a target. By booting Robb last week, Ken set himself up as the strongest IC threat on SJ. CG surely would have targeted Robb first, but now Ken holds the spot. Ken's glamour shot appears this week, not a good sign. Ken is one of Ghandia's stars. I don't know if this would be any more fair than the purple rock, but it would be a lot more interesting to watch, at least initially. If the point is to shake things up, this could do it, I just can't seem to come up with anything that would completely eliminate a pagonging at this point in the game. If both tribes aren't going to vote at TC, what would be the point of having them live together premerge? I'll have to think this out a little further, but right now, it makes the most sense to me. Ken would be the most likely SJ boot target, merge or not, and I just don't see what MB can do to change that.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 04:17 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: My Current Theory" |
true,
you make a good argument as usual and it's certainly possible I'm too enamored of my own theory.Here are my counter-arguments: >>The thing that makes me think this is most likely, is Ken confronting Shii Ann about loyalty. Why would he need to do this if SJ planned to pick of Shii all by themselves? The key here is knowing when this conversation takes place.
1) If after IC, and only SJ is voting, you are correct. Shii Ann would have ZERO power other than as one vote. Even if she voted against Ken with 2 or more other SJ's, that would not make her a "rat." Only defecting to the other tribe would do that. 2) However, my theory is that Shii Ann (who is likely in an ambassador position, as we see her in the water at CG) pursues her new strategy (per the promo) in the 2 days prior to IC. I think Jeff only gives them half the news about the merge in the Circle scene, and they are all "assuming" that IC brings the merge. Shii Ann is mingling with CG and Ken is well aware that her vote will make 6-4 against him barring his winning immunity. So he tries giving her a stern talk on ethics and loyalty. THEN, it turns out they are all wrong. There is one final team IC and tribal vote. While SJ might vote to eliminate Ken as an immunity hog if they KNOW they will merge in 8, they don't know, so they take out the defector. You say MB can't control Ken being in danger. True. What he can control is the face time he gives a player. Ken's face time spike last episode was all about Robb. Yes, I think Ken is going soon, but I think he is not fully developed yet. As the NYC cop, he should have gotten more face time than this and a story of his own. This episode will be full of logistical stuff and does not present much opportunity to develop Ken in the sense of letting us know who he is before he's gone. Look at how much we knew about Varner and Rob Mariano before they headed out. There is only one player that we have seen get a ton of face time on SJ and that is Shii Ann.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 05:08 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: My Current Theory" |
The key here is knowing when this conversation takes place.
1) If after IC, and only SJ is voting, you are correct. Shii Ann would have ZERO power other than as one vote. Even if she voted against Ken with 2 or more other SJ's, that would not make her a "rat." Only defecting to the other tribe would do that.Yes, the key is the timing. From the pictures below, I believe that these two scenes take place very near each other, because of Shii Ann's hair style. (however different clothing) Most likely after the painting/partying scenes. Shii cleans up, and gets her hair done, then she changes tops and heads to IC.
2) However, my theory is that Shii Ann (who is likely in an ambassador position, as we see her in the water at CG) pursues her new strategy (per the promo) in the 2 days prior to IC. I can't imagine any scenario where SJ would choose Shii as an ambassador, but it could be random, if at all. In these shots, Shii is pre braids and painted. Also, I see Erin in the picture with Shii and Helen, so I think that both tribes arrive separately for what they believe is RC or Merge, and leave together where the following scenes take place. 
I think Jeff only gives them half the news about the merge in the Circle scene, and they are all "assuming" that IC brings the merge. Shii Ann is mingling with CG and Ken is well aware that her vote will make 6-4 against him barring his winning immunity. So he tries giving her a stern talk on ethics and loyalty.
This makes complete sense, and is something I hadn't tought through completely. It is possible that after getting to know each other, but before IC, that Ken and Shii have this talk. We've seen him get upset about bananas, so why not about Shii living it up with the other tribe. Shii is wearing different clothing in her talk with Ken than she is wearing in the IC. Maybe it's the next day? THEN, it turns out they are all wrong. There is one final team IC and tribal vote. While SJ might vote to eliminate Ken as an immunity hog if they KNOW they will merge in 8, they don't know, so they take out the defector. This makes sense if they are smart. SJ has voted to eliminate the IC threats from day one. Given Ken's comments to Robb, I don't think he is firmly alligned with anyone at SJ. I'm just not convinced that they will be so unsure of a merge in episode 8, regardless of the fear the shake up brings this week. If not, then it only makes more sense that both tribes would vote at TC. Once it gets down to the jury, each survivor should vote, merged or not. Would Ken be able to convince the other SJ that Shii is a defector? She's voted with them all along. Or is it more likely that Ken will just look paranoid and desparate to save himself? You say MB can't control Ken being in danger. True. What he can control is the face time he gives a player. Ken's face time spike last episode was all about Robb.
Well, Ken was featured in the food auction. He was featured in banana gate, and with his relationship to Robb. Yes, I think Ken is going soon, but I think he is not fully developed yet. As the NYC cop, he should have gotten more face time than this and a story of his own. Yes, and I thought the same of firefighter Steph. Maybe Ken tells his 9/11 story around the campfire after the tribes move in together. This episode will be full of logistical stuff and does not present much opportunity to develop Ken in the sense of letting us know who he is before he's gone. Look at how much we knew about Varner and Rob Mariano before they headed out. One word...ZOE. There is only one player that we have seen get a ton of face time on SJ and that is Shii Ann. I'm not entirely sure about that. Shii Ann has had some confessionals, I just think they're more memorable than the others, becuase of what she says, not how much she says. Until now, Robb had the most face time on SJ, and last week I think Ken got a lot more than Shii. The rest of the time has pretty much focused on the ones who got booted in the episode prior to their boot. Also, Shii's face time had to be there, as she is the only remaining SJ that has received votes. MB had to show us some reason that she was being targeted by R/S/J. You've made excellent points for a Shii Ann boot this week, but my gut keeps screaming Ken. (probably a good reason to pick someone else!) *hopefully this makes sense, I need to run for a bit, and don't have time to proof it carefully.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-02, 04:08 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: My Current Theory" |
>>Before I could see CG getting a vote over who to send home in SJ, I believe they would have to merge with new name and colors.<<OFG, this is the thing I like least about my scenario -- that the merge would in effect occur after the immunity challenge and before tribal council. It doesn't quite sit right. But, thinking about it some more, neither scenario really discourages a pagonging of the original tribe that is short a member after the Ep 7 TC. In your version, the tribe members do get more of a chance to feel out new alliances, but would a tribe that is pretty solid with each other still care once it got the upper hand? Maybe Helen would enlist Shii Ann to vote with her and Jan against the CG men down the road -- but if Shii Ann gets the boot, there goes that idea. Anyway, since you brought up the purple rock: I wouldn't be surprised if it is used again in S5. In S4 it didn't have the desired effect of forcing someone to change their vote. MB might want to see if it does the job this time. And we did hear from MB or JP that "the same mistakes are not made" (uh-oh, better find the source for that!). So far we've been seeing the same old mistakes, IMO. So what mistake(s) will not be repeated in S5? Hmm.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-27-02, 06:02 PM (EST)
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21. "Richard Hatch player" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-27-02 AT 06:35 PM (EST)I think Brian is the Richard Hatch they are discussing. That's why we see all those confessionals about his strategy and how he is focused at all times on the game. That was Richard's special strength. He always had his head in the game, whereas Sue and Kelly got all hung up over their friendship and its betrayal. Brian and Penny are both shown as understanding that you keep the game separate from the reality. 
Hmmm,
Could this be a preview of the Final Two together for the first time? (Or 2 of the Final 3?) Could happen if CG gets the majority this time and Penny and Erin are the last two SJ standing, and Penny plays dark and allies with Ted and Brian to axe Clay and Helen (after they take out Erin). Shii Ann--she is mired in her personal feelings and reactions, and she does not qualify as Richard Hatch. Jeff Probst said, on that Chicago radio interview, that "Shii Ann really hates herself." This may indicate she will do something that's not in her own best interest so that she can take out the people who have been mean to her when she goes, instead of passively waiting for them to axe her. MY PTTE for today: ShiiAnn/Ken/Jake/Erin/Jan/Helen/Clay/Brian/Ted/Penny Because with 4 CG's on the jury to 3 SJ's, Ted and Brian can't afford to axe their allies early and lose their votes... When they get to 6 Penny wins IC or they recruit her to axe Jan because the old bat needs a mercy boot and she'll be loyal to her tribe anyway. Clay and Helen are of course on to Brian and Ted's Final 2 pact, so B/T snag Penny to get them to the end and avoid a tie at the Final 4 ... Penny wins the Final Immunity and betrays Brian to take Ted. Helen votes against Ted and he loses. Ghandia loves Helen. Well, it's a theory...
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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10-28-02, 03:22 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Richard Hatch player" |
OFG, One point about your post. You state..."Because with 4 CG's on the jury to 3 SJ's, Ted and Brian can't afford to axe their allies early and lose their votes" How can this be? It is 4 SJs and 3 CGs if Ted and Brian are not out of the game? 4CGs + Ted and Brian = 6 CGs. There are only five CGs left at this point. Could I just be overlooking something obvious in your post? D.R.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 01:54 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Richard Hatch player" |
Yes, but Brian and Ted are *planning* to be the Final 2. If their plan is successful there would be three CG's on the jury and four SJs, so they wouldn't have that cause for concern. It's only after Penny wins Final 3 immunity and one of Ted and Brian gets booted that the jury distribution changes.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 04:03 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Richard Hatch player" |
Brownroach,
you are right that the jury composition will not be known until near the end. However I think that only Ted is planning for he and Brian to be Final Two.I think Brian is keeping his options open, however. He is smart enough to know that there is no way to be sure that Ted makes it to the Final 2, especially since Ted is an obvious target. Ted, OTOH, doesn't seem to be so smart about the game. He is likely an intelligent man, to have the job he does, but I don't see any signs that he's good at figuring out people's psychology. When the game gets near the end, Brian will be analyzing the makeup of the jury. However, he may not be in a position to control his destiny for final immunity. IF he and Penny were to form a Colby-Tina type secret alliance and Penny stayed loyal, that would be Brian's best shot not to wind up as number 3.
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anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-02, 12:17 PM (EST)
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32. "Paint question" |
Forgiveme if I have missed it--been reading all these spoiler posts and I have paints, chackles, cages and drunk old bats flying around in my mind.If the paints aren't relevant, how/when/why is CG painted and why are their apparent pairs of each color? I can see them coming together for the reward challenge assuming there is a merge only to find out they are living on the same beach as two teams--I think that will bring an intereseting dynamic. I also can see them being painted a color and having a "buddy" from the other team which add another dynamic to the game. In the end, I think I just want to see a compelling argument for totally disregarding the paint.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 04:23 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Paint question" |
anotherkim,
I don't totally disregard the paint. I put the paint issue out as a question at the beginning of this thread because I don't have the answer and it will play some part in the episode.I only disregard the pairings by paint as providing the answer for the big surprise. That is separate, and is announced at IC.
The paint scene, IMHO, probably relates to them getting to know each other by spending time together, perhaps even deciding the location of the "one beach" they will share (or not). It will probably put Shii Ann in a position to talk with the CG tribe and give her an opening to implement a new strategy. I do not believe the pairs come into play in the immunity challenge, where we see the teams tied together in their old configurations, at least 4 out of 5. In that sense, the pairing with paint is more of a red herring to the players that causes them to make unwarranted assumptions about an impending merge.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 04:05 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: Paint question" |
In the past MB has had the players team up in pairs for RC. Remember Colby and Jerri? Maybe this was a get-to-know you paired RC. The winning pair gets a special reward. Then it's back to teams for the IC.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-02, 04:34 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
Dave,
I doubt that TV guide would print its blurb for Episode 8 and not the recrap if the recrap preceded Ep 8.As dabo says, the original recrap followed Ep 8.
And yes, Pepe: November, February, and May are the sweeps months, which probably accounts for why a show like ER has done a brand new episode on Thanksgiving (at least in past seasons) instead of showing a re-run. Due to the timing for this season's Survivor start, the recrap has to play in November. I doubt that means there won't be one. It's Burnett's chance to sum up the tribal portion of the game into a coherent story arc and to try to suck in viewers who aren't watching because they didn't get in at the beginning. Finally, did anyone here mention that the recrap doesn't always have its own week? They can play it on Wednesday before the Amazing Race. It may not push back the schedule at all. In S2 it pushed back the schedule so that the finale would fall in May sweeps, but here it will be less helpful to bump a new episode out of sweep's month.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 11:14 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
My main point wasn't really an assumption that there wouldn't be a recrap, only that it seemed evident that it wouldn't be scheduled as AyaK had assumed when he originally made the episode assignments. Buggy's episode assignment fit her schedule according to the projected airdate, and Pepe's episode assignment was made according to the projected airdate on Thanksgiving, so some shuffling of the assignments may be something the affected parties may want to look into.It wouldn't surprise me if CBS put a recrap on a Wednesday night leading into Amazing Race, that would give them an extra hour of Survivor during sweeps while not pushing the finale into the holiday programming traditional in December. Plus, they may cancel some shows rather than have their sweeps figures take a hit. Sorry about taking this thread a bit off topic, we now return you to your regularly scheduled spoiling. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 11:28 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-02 AT 11:29 AM (EST)Check this out:
From the clothing worn (and Shii Ann's hair) it seems that the challenge happens the same day as the big meeting (and party night). What I'm looking at here, though, is that Ted falls down and Erin is nearly last in line, the two golds. Could this be a faux challenge where individual placement determines how the pairs are assigned? Or at the least who are the golds? "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-29-02, 03:52 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
Darn Brownroach, you took my theory right out of my head!!My takeAssumptions - the remaining Survivors anticipate your typical merger. Choose a color in the tree mail, girls have a choice of three colors, boys the other three. The circle of stone is nothing more than a Thai ritual, Jeff announces the merger but with a twist. You will be all living together at one camp but will still remain Sucky and Chewy and compete in challenge as Sucky and Chewy. Is this too simple? Yes. But the possibilities are endless. There will intermixing with another tribe while staying with their own. For people like Shii Ann who does "love" her tribe, this is a perfect way to feel out what is going on with the Chewys. This is also a way for Ken to feel paranoid about Shii's loyalty especially IF........ Reward Challenge - either no reward which I am leaning towards, potentially just a big ole basket of food and wine and we see the tribe members get stinky Immunity Challenge - still wearing their own tribal buffs, therefore this is still a team challenge. The prisoner shackle challenge. Perhaps everyone is locked up and you have to free your team mates and whoever does wins. The clincher....... Both tribes get to vote the loser team off. It makes perfect sense and KEN and TED are the most vulnerable here. I don't care there are mental challenges, if I was a Sucky, I'd get rid of Ted. If I was a Chewy, boot Ken. If Chewy wins, which we pretty much are assuming to happen, KEN IS SCARED. Especially when he sees how Shii Ann is buddying up to the Chewys. All Shii Ann needs to know is who is Chewy voting for, because if they COLLECTIVELY vote one person from Sucky and it isn't her, she is fine. Maybe Ken sees her talking it up with Shii Ann and gets mad b/c it looks to him like Shii Ann is giving them a heads up on all of them voting for the same person. With or without Shii Ann, Ken would be off b/c it would five votes for Ken and only four for Shii Ann, actually Shii Ann can vote ANYBODY and still stay on; but she HAS to make sure the Chewy's don't vote her. Remember, the Chewy's in the past have split votes at times, PLUS, no one knows for sure if past votes have any impact and Shii Ann has quite a few. I think it is a perfect twist for one episode and the real merger comes next week. Shii Ann is golden b/c she has "sucked" up to the Chewy's therefore "Sleeping with the Enemy" Ken has had a major spike in face time. All the boards thought he was the hidden leader at the Food Auction then he is banana cop and now plays a part in Shii's loyalty. Why is only KEN STATING THIS TO SHII ANN, why not Jake/Erinn/Penny. I think because Ken knows he is the most vulnerable here.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 05:33 PM (EST)
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70. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
The problem with both teams voting (but one tribe being immune) is that the immune tribe can essentially commence Pagonging and knock out whoever they wantYes, BUT if this pattern of tribal immunity continues, the pagonging does not necessarily continue. I actually like the dynamic this would create. If one original tribe has immunity and both tribes are allowed to vote, it creates a situation where there are 2 people up for every TC, the player the immune tribe wants gone, and the player the at risk tribe wants gone. more than likely, both players will know who they are, and may very likely try to cut a deal with the immune tribe (or parties within it). Unlike previous seasons, this season they would actually have some bargaining power if EVERY post-merge IC is structured this way because the next TC the tables may be turned. In seasons past, once the pagonging started, there was nothing the minority group could do to stop it. However, if the minority tribe can win immunity, they can start to turn the tide. The more I think about this idea, the more I think it might be the most brilliant twist yet. It certainly would take the usual predictability out of E8-E10. Besides, if this is the case, then a Final Four of 2 CG and 2 SJ would not be a stretch.
 Fester
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 04:58 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
Veruca,
I think this one part of your excellent argument can be rebutted:>>PLUS, no one knows for sure if past votes have any impact and Shii Ann has quite a few. I think they do know for sure. I think this rule is spelled out to them. Patricia said that the S4 people knew all about prior votes not counting; they had been told beforehand. At the time of her interview, the tiebreaker episode had not aired, so she couldn't say what the rule was, but I think they all knew. In S2 I think they knew about prior votes. Otherwise, why would Tina have wormed it out of Kimmy about Jeff's prior vote at a challenge that occurred before the TC where Mitchell and Keith tied--which is where we first learned about it. That rule was probably in place in S1, but since Kelly changed her vote on the only tie, the audience never heard about it. Ghandia mentioned a rock draw. We don't know if the same rule applies as in S4, as it may have been tweaked, but I think the players were told the rule. The lawyer on site probably insisted.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 05:14 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
On the other hand (continuing to try to play Devil's Advocate as it were): It really seemed in S4 that the players hadn't been told everything about how the tie-breaker would work. They may have known it would come down to luck of the draw but not been told that everyone except the immunity holder would have to draw.In this series we've had conflicting messages: Tanya, post-boot, indicated that her vote for Helen was based on Ghandia's vote for Helen and the prospect that the past votes rule would be back in place. (aside: she could have easily voted for Clay or Ghandia both of whom had a prior vote, however.) Ghandia's gender division strategy assumed it coming down to the purple rock with her odds of surviving being 5 out of 6 (or 50-50 if the rule has been tweaked to only include those who have been voted against), the odds of the women prevailing being 50-50. In short: Whatever Burnett may have told them, at the lawyer's insistance, he will have probably only have told them as much as he had to rather than everything he could. Keeping things as uncertain as possible is part of how he works on the players throughout the game. ARRRRRRR!!!!
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 09:52 PM (EST)
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77. "RE: "Merge" Ep Scenarios" |
I don't think the S-4 players knew about the rocks, but they did know that prior votes didn't count.In the Final Four TC, Kathy made her deal with Vecepia, then told Jeff she would "take the test, or whatever". At that time, Jiffy told them what the real deal was. Pappy got stoned (thanks for that great quote, Dabo!). However, I do think the S-5 crew knows something about the rocks. Ghandia mentioned drawing a rock out of a bag, but DID NOT MENTION THE COLOR. Now the way everyone else in the world has glommed onto the PURPLE rock that Paschal pulled out, you'd think Ghandia would've used the term... but no, she just said *A* rock out of a bag...
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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catinhat95 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-29-02, 08:38 PM (EST)
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73. "HELP! I am really confused" |
I just looked on the yahoo board where I cast my weekly vote. This week it asks you to pick an individual who will win immunity, instead of a tribe. I didn't think the merger was going to happen this week and now I don't know how to vote!!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 08:40 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: HELP! I am really confused" |
Yahoo is guessing that the merger will happen this week and it will be individual immunity, ie. business as usual. Vote for whichever player you think is most likely to win individual immunity if there is one.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-02, 09:47 PM (EST)
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76. "People, PLEASE!!!" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-02 AT 09:54 PM (EST)My 10th grade English teacher used to yell that all the time. "Peee-pul, PLEEEZE!" One of my instructors at Airborne School would say "I don't bul-EEEVE what I am SEE-ing!" Sneaking into the Microsoft Computer Lab to enjoy the spoiling on SB.com, I have glanced at this thread without reading deeply into it. And I absolutely don't bul-eeeve what I am seeing! People, please! Why are you falling for MB's trickery? Let me re-introduce y'all to an amazing concept: Occam's Razor. The simple solution has got to be the answer. 1) There is NOTHING that does NOT support a traditional merge in this episode. Maybe towards the end of the 3-day-cycle, as in S-III, but traditional none-the-less. I'm sorry, OFG, but I just cannot buy into your merge-delay theory. (If I'm wrong and you're right, I owe you a drink big-time ) 2) MB (or his crack staff, which I believe has done and is doing a LOT of the editing as MB prepares for S-6) has been editing very straightforwardly this season. Hiding the obvious within plain sight. The only things that stuck out: Ken was given plenty of air-time with Dood last episode. In the preview, Kenn confronts Shii Ann about tribe loyalty (That's classic OFG Theory, which may unwittingly be back!). So that means that either Shii Ann is the target (misdirection?), or Ken is. Yes, Jan has gotten some editing, also. 3) However, we have Paratrooper's opinion that Shii Ann goes late in the game. There are also other reasons that I suspect the same, including bootee interviews (AMAZING how those things are allowed to be out like this!!!). 4) "Assumptions" is to generate VIEWER interest, not player interest. MB & Co. WANTS us to think that something is different. Yeah, like the swap opportunity. That went flat faster than an open can of Coca-Cola. 5) So don't overthink this one.
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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