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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 01:09 AM (EST) "Reverse Logic" Looking at the spoilers that are still valid, I have to conclude that Shii Ann and Robb are the boot candidates under consideration for this week and next. Below are some assumptions and followed by reverse logic, backing into the conclusion that Shii Ann is probably the next to go... Assumption #1: Nothing has changed; Shii Ann and Robb are next. Last week many of us had concluded that Stephanie, Shii Ann and Robb were the most vulnerable and probably the next three to go. Now that Stephanie is gone, has anything happened to change our opinion that Shii Ann and Robb are will follow in EP6 and EP7? Assumption #2: Sook Jai goes to TC in EP6 There was no switch, so we know that Clay’s comments about “you won’t see us back at TC for a while, after Ghandia”, suggests that the Sook Jai go back to TC in EP5. Shii Ann or Robb are the likely choices we will be presented with. The editing will try to create suspense by showing us reasons that either could go this week. Assumption #3: Shii Ann needs to Smoke with Ghandia The Gdiva Spoiler puts Shii Ann (and Robb) in the lodge, where Ghandia can learn about Shi Ann and Robb’s smoking habits and get well enough acquainted to want to maintain contact after the game. Assumption #4: Merge during EP7 EP7 is called “Assumptions”, and just like the title says I am assuming that the merge will take place with ten players left in the game, like it always has. With an ideal 5 v 5 split, MB has no reason to change it, eventhough he will try to have us, and the players, question our “assumptions”. Assumption #5: Chuay Gahn gains the upper hand in EP7 with a Sook Jai boot. The weight loss spoilers suggest that Chuay Gahn gains control of the game after the merge at 5 v 5. So it follows that a Sook Jai member leaves in EP7 finally giving the Chuay Gahn control, which they keep deep into the game. How it happens is a discussion for another thread, but the Chuay Gahn probably get a defection (some of the backstabbing we’ve heard about) or Chuay Gahn wins a 5-5 tiebreaker. Either way the result is to vote out a former Sook Jai. Assumption #5: Robb is a logical post merge target. Shii Ann is not. Robb is an individual challenge threat, Shii Ann is obviously weak in the physical challenges. The Chuay Gahn alliance is much more likely to vote out Robb in EP7 than Shii Ann. Conclusions: Using reverse logic, we know that the Chuay Gahn have significant weight loss reports associated with all of their remaining tribe members. Therefore the Chuay Gahn tribe must gain the upper hand with a numerical advantage after the merge. Since they are still outnumbered 6-5 after EP5, Sook Jai must lose EP6 and the first member after the merge at 5-5. If Robb were already gone from the game at the merge in EP7, the Chuay Gahn would be much more likely to target someone perceived to be a leader or a physical threat. Shii Ann does not fit the merge boot profile. Since we are assuming that Shii Ann must spend time with Ghandia, she needs to be out of the game before the jury duty starts. Since she does not fit the profile for EP7 she must leave in EP6. Clays comments support a Sook Jai boot in EP6. Summary: EP6: Shii Ann EP7: (Merge) Robb EP8: Ken is the likely target unless he wins individual immunity. The logic only holds up if the basic assumptions are true, thats where the discussion comes in....have at it! Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Disagree dabo 10-21-02 1    RE: Disagree ivoryElephant 10-21-02 2    RE: Disagree PepeLePew13 10-21-02 14        Okay dabo 10-21-02 18            RE: Okay PepeLePew13 10-21-02 27        One minor point FesterFan1 10-21-02 28            The Jeff Varner Factor SuperClyde 10-22-02 50  RE: Reverse Logic Seyz 10-21-02 3    RE: Reverse Logic Krautboy 10-21-02 9        RE: Reverse Logic ZJ 10-21-02 15  Just two issues SurvivinDawg 10-21-02 4    RE: Just two issues Krautboy 10-21-02 11        Smoker's List just smoke and mirror... SurvivinDawg 10-21-02 46  RE: Reverse Logic Bebo 10-21-02 5    RE: Reverse Logic SurvivinDawg 10-21-02 25  Logic GuessItRains 10-21-02 6    RE: Logic Krautboy 10-21-02 19  RE: Reverse Logic FesterFan1 10-21-02 7    RE: Reverse Logic Krautboy 10-21-02 8        Purple Rock idiotcowboy 10-21-02 10            RE: Purple Rock again!!! UGH jkokoj 10-21-02 12                Previous Votes GuessItRains 10-21-02 17                RE: Purple Rock again!!! UGH bobstew617 10-21-02 45                    RE: Purple Rock again!!! UGH TechNoir 10-21-02 47        RE: Reverse Logic FesterFan1 10-21-02 13            RE: Reverse Logic ZJ 10-21-02 16            RE: Reverse Logic Brownroach 10-21-02 21                My thoughts exactly NightScribe 10-21-02 35                    RE: My thoughts exactly Brownroach 10-21-02 41  Jan's foreshadowing? smokedog 10-21-02 20    RE: Jan's foreshadowing? jkokoj 10-21-02 22        Ghandia's "Stars" list managerr 10-21-02 24    RE: Jan's foreshadowing? MattyMax 10-21-02 23    RE: Jan's foreshadowing? Boilermaker 10-21-02 30  ShiiAnn and Loser Lodge MakeItStop 10-21-02 26  Back to Forward Logic... SurvivinDawg 10-21-02 29    What's Shii Ann's motive? Krautboy 10-21-02 31        Defection Logic dabo 10-21-02 33        RE: What's Shii Ann's motive? SurvivinDawg 10-21-02 42            RE: What's Shii Ann's motive? bergdogg 10-23-02 52        RE: What's Shii Ann's motive? OceanSkater 10-22-02 49            RE: What's Shii Ann's motive? dabo 10-23-02 51                RE: What's Shii Ann's motive? OceanSkater 10-24-02 53  RE: Reverse Logic Q 10-21-02 32    RE: Reverse Logic BMH 10-21-02 34        RE: Reverse Logic Q 10-21-02 36            RE: Reverse Logic BMH 10-21-02 37    Despondent Underdog? Krautboy 10-21-02 39        RE: Despondent Underdog? BMH 10-21-02 40            RE: Despondent Underdog? ZJ 10-22-02 48  RE: Reverse Logic GuessItRains 10-21-02 38  RE: Reverse Logic toddE 10-21-02 43  RE: Reverse Logic fivestarwheezy 10-21-02 44

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 02:20 AM (EST) 1. "Disagree" >Looking at the spoilers that are >still valid, I have to >conclude that Shii Ann and >Robb are the boot candidates >under consideration for this week >and next. Okay, with you so far. >Assumption #1: Nothing has changed; Shii >Ann and Robb are next. Fight between Robb and Ken needs to be factored into this. Robb may shift his focus from Shii to Ken if the breakdown is great enough. >Assumption #2: Sook Jai goes to >TC in EP6 > This seems likely given the weight loss spoilers. The only other viable prospect would be CG going to TC6 but then gaining a defector or two (Robb and/or Shii Ann) in episode 6 (though both throwing in with CG seems highly unlikely). >Assumption #3: Shii Ann needs to >Smoke with Ghandia > >The Gdiva Spoiler puts Shii Ann >(and Robb) in the lodge, >where Ghandia can learn about >Shi Ann and Robb’s smoking >habits and get well enough >acquainted to want to maintain >contact after the game. > I threw out the gdiva associations when Ghandia got the boot. There were too many associations to be accounted for in a pre-jury vote unless she made a few connections by making it to a swap or to the merge, but she didn't. Smoking associations could also have come from the wrap party and beyond. >Assumption #4: Merge during EP7 > >EP7 is called “Assumptions”, and just >like the title says I >am assuming that the merge >will take place with ten >players left in the game, >like it always has. With >an ideal 5 v 5 >split, MB has no reason >to change it, eventhough he >will try to have us, >and the players, question our >“assumptions”. > This one I have to give you, though there is nothing to indicate an episode 6 merge which would leave CG outnumbered, except perhaps the weight loss spoilers. >Assumption #5: Chuay Gahn gains the >upper hand in EP7 with >a Sook Jai boot. > >The weight loss spoilers suggest that >Chuay Gahn gains control of >the game after the merge >at 5 v 5. So >it follows that a Sook >Jai member leaves in EP7 >finally giving the Chuay Gahn >control, which they keep deep >into the game. How it >happens is a discussion for >another thread, but the Chuay >Gahn probably get a defection >(some of the backstabbing we’ve >heard about) or Chuay Gahn >wins a 5-5 tiebreaker. Either >way the result is to >vote out a former Sook >Jai. Totally agree. Furthermore, if Robb is still around in ep 7 he might realize he is extra baggage as far as the rest of Sook Jai is concerned, and the same may go for Shii Ann (though she may think Jake has her back). >Assumption #5: Robb is a logical >post merge target. Shii Ann >is not. Totally disagree, Robb is a loose cannon and therefore a logical pre-merge boot candidate. >Robb is an individual challenge threat, >Shii Ann is obviously weak >in the physical challenges. The >Chuay Gahn alliance is much >more likely to vote out >Robb in EP7 than Shii >Ann. Yup. If it comes down to anything other than the luck of the purple rock, Shii Ann has a better chance than Robb. >Conclusions: > >Using reverse logic, we know that >the Chuay Gahn have significant >weight loss reports associated with >all of their remaining tribe >members. Therefore the Chuay Gahn >tribe must gain the upper >hand with a numerical advantage >after the merge. Since they >are still outnumbered 6-5 after >EP5, Sook Jai must lose >EP6 and the first member >after the merge at 5-5. > Agree. The only other possibility is a defector who probably wouldn't get to the final two. >If Robb were already gone from >the game at the merge >in EP7, the Chuay Gahn >would be much more likely >to target someone perceived to >be a leader or a >physical threat. Shii Ann does >not fit the merge boot >profile. > >Since we are assuming that Shii >Ann must spend time with >Ghandia, she needs to be >out of the game before >the jury duty starts. Since >she does not fit the >profile for EP7 she must >leave in EP6. > Why are we assuming Shii Ann is a pre-jury boot? She eats everything she can get her hands on, unlike some dopes. Disregard the gdiva stuff, Stephanie didn't make any of gdiva's lists and she is gone. The gdiva stuff is basically useless. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 10-21-02, 02:50 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Disagree" Editing People are edited as villians/snarky bitches or whatever such as Kelly G and Jerri. Kelly G. really started to come out and I really started to like her the most in the ep. she was booted. Jerri was portrayed in a higher lite right before she was edited. Will the "despondent" underdog aka Robb be edited in a more favorable interesting light and subsequently get the boot just as jerri and kelly g. ? Possible Another thing about editing.... alliances shown do not succeed... S3: Lex says "we have the final four wrapped up (kelly g., tom, lex and ethan) He replaces Kelly with kim and he also gets booted. S4: John: "if I catch a pig I can set my table for the final 4" didn't happen. Rotu 4 was shown in the open and it fell. The Kathy/Neleh/Paschal/Vee/Sean alliance wasn't shown until after the vote, hence it succeeded. EVERY SINGLE time after the merge the survivor that won immunity was shown saying something like this: "i need to win immunity or I will get the boot" Every singe time a survivor said something like "I am gonna win, or I am in this to take it all the way" they were booted that ep. this happened every episode. So, lets look at what we have and haven't been shown Ted makes Brian an offer: Ted and Brian won't be the final two, one of them will be eliminated Brian and Helen: they swam to get water they must have plotted but we weren't shown this. Why? hmmm... Possible alliance? Hut Sleepers alliance: very much hidden does it mean they succeed? Robb was not shown saying that he might get the boot. Jan was shown saying she would be booted. Jan was safe, steph got the boot. Will the prophecy of Jan carry over to this ep and keep her safe? a lot of Q's and not a whole lot of answers but it gets the ball rolling -congratulations to Clay Jordan, the winner of survivor Thailand- UTR Winner: Penny or Jake Rooting for: Helen   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 12:06 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Disagree" >>Assumption #5: Robb is a logical post merge target. Shii Ann >>is not. > >Totally disagree, Robb is a loose cannon and therefore a logical >pre-merge boot candidate. Survivor history has clearly shown that the first person booted post-merge has always been a strong person who could reasonably win ICs. Gretchen in S1, Jeff Varner in S2 (with Colby, a major IC threat, also getting 5 votes), Clarence in S3, Boston Rob in S4. Robb fits this profile more strongly than Shii-Ann. IF Shii-Ann makes the merge, she's more likely to go a couple episodes further so that the big threats would probably go first if they don't win IC (such as Ken/Robb). Spoilers suggest that she's more likely to go pre-merge so if both her and Robb are going to be gone pre-jury, then it most likely has to be Shii first and then Robb after the merge. Yes, we can't take Ghandia's comments too seriously and yes, it's easy to get to know someone as a smoker after the game or during the wrap party but I believe in the smoker spoiler that Ghandia got to know Shii and Robb as smokers in Loser Lodge before the jury. And using the reasoning already mentioned above, it's far more likely that Shii goes first before Robb because I can't see Shii being the first post-merge boot when there are others like Ken who are immunity threats. The wild card, of course, is if someone betrays his/her own tribe and create an unexpected situation that throws us all for a loop -- what if this is where the Assumptions title comes into play, i.e. we all assume that with a 5-5 split they'll have a tie vote, but someone (i.e. Shii or Jake, for example) throws their vote over to the Chuays and create a new alliance. Ahh these titles and interpretations are making my head hurt!   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 12:37 PM (EST) 18. "Okay" I stand corrected: given the past history of the merge boot, Robb does fit the profile whereas Shii Ann does not. Unfortunately, the purple rock situation throws logical targets out; if it comes down to a tie-breaker they all (with the exception of whoever holds individual immunity) have to take their chances. I really hope MB has rethought that one, at the very least it should be limited to the two who were targetted in the voting (in my opinion that is the only fair thing to do), but that would take some of the impetus out of the post-vote negotiations at TC (which was great TV last season and something MB is likely to retain). I would rather see them go into a sudden death Survivor Jeopardy round (though Lindsey the unlikely won that one in Africa, sometimes the fates just smile on the clueless), but I'm afraid we may be stuck with the dreaded purple rock. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 01:43 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Okay" I'm in total agreement with you, dabs. I sincerely hope they've learned their lesson with the purple rock, but I'm not holding my breath on it. However... I'm citing potential spoilers in coming up with the theory (as Krautboy already pointed out in his original post) that Shii-Ann and Robb would be the next two to go -- so somehow, one way or another, a tiebreaker or a betrayal would result in this scenario happening. Whether it's by a purple rock, prior votes, getting chased by Ghandia's ghost or a beheading, etc., I don't know.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 01:44 PM (EST) 28. "One minor point" Pepe, While Gretchen and Clarence were E7 boots based primarily on the perception that they were the biggest IC threats, Jeff and Robfaddah really weren't. Jeff was booted simply because Ogakor knew he had a vote against. Alicia would have been deemed the bigger threat if that was the motivation. In S4, Robfaddah went more because of his berserker strategy than because people viewed him as an IC threat. Basically, this is the first season since S2 where we may be looking at a 5-5 stalemate. This puts Shii Ann right back in the cross-hairs if CG looks to find the SJ with the most votes. I'm still not convinced that that's how they'll vote, but I do think that Robb fits more with an E6 exit and Shii more with an E7. Robb's been ostracized by a pretty paranoid group. Do you think the Hut Sleepers want any part of him being able to go on a mini-IC run? Nope, they'll squash him while they have the chance in E6. Fester   Top

SuperClyde 87 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-22-02, 10:44 PM (EST) 50. "The Jeff Varner Factor" Excellent work, Fes. We don't know how the tie would work. The logical E6 boot is Robb. Only an idiot SJ would break up a solid 5 alliance now. There is no logical E7 boot. Shii Ann has a one in three chance (along with Clay and Helen) to be gone if the prior votes method is used to break a very likely tie. She has a 10% chance of a boot if the purple rock comes back. Even if there's a delayed merger, she's got a 50-50 chance (along with Jan) of a boot in E7. Put the probabilities of the prevailing possibilities together, and Shii ends up with the worst survival likelihoot during E7. But why use logic spoilers when we have brainless ones? 1. Ghandia possibly smokes with both Robb and Shii Ann. 2. CG possibly gain a 5-4 advantage in E7, allowing them to stick around and lose some weight. As for a despondent underdog, I haven't cheered for one of those since I saw a crafty woman plot to vote said dog off after creating a sexual harassment scandal out of a matter that was forgiven and forgotten among friends just a short while before.   Top

Seyz 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 05:27 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Reverse Logic" I agree with most of your points Krautboy! The only thing I disagree with is the Gdiva smoking logic a lot of people have been using. It's too hard to say whether she found out after the game or during the game. Ghandia and Shii Ann are definitely friends now, (as we know from her interviews), but does that necessary have to mean they became friends at LL, and not at that wrap up party we've heard about, or on the plane ride home? Besides, Ghandia's star list hasn't really told us anything so far. Besides, Jed still hates Shii Ann's guts. Really doesn't sound like they had any time to patch things up at all. Unless they ignored each other at lose lodge for 3 weeks at loser lodge or something.. which sounds unlikely. I'm also inclined to think if Robb and Shii Ann are to be the next two to leave, Robb would go first, then Shii Ann, just based on next week's blowout, and the fact that Shii Ann is in an alliance after all.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 11:05 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Reverse Logic" > >Besides, Jed still hates Shii Ann's >guts. Really doesn't sound like >they had any time to >patch things up at all. >Unless they ignored each other >at lose lodge for 3 >weeks at loser lodge or >something.. which sounds unlikely. Stephanie said in her interview that she and Jed travelled in Thailand soon after her boot and didn't get to know the others very well. In which case Jed wouldn't have had time to reconcile with Shii Ann even if she was next to go. >I'm also inclined to think if >Robb and Shii Ann are >to be the next two >to leave, Robb would go >first, then Shii Ann, just >based on next week's blowout, >and the fact that Shii >Ann is in an alliance >after all. This is the part that bothers me. What scenario has Shii Ann being booted in the Merge Episode. The Chuay Gahn alliance seems to have many other much better targets... Krautboy   Top

ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 12:11 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Reverse Logic" What if previous votes came into question again? The 'Assumptions' could be purple rock in a bag but in S5, the previous votes are used, not known to the survivors, then CG focused on Shii Ann, who has way too many votes   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 07:05 AM (EST) 4. "Just two issues" I've only got two questions/issues for you, Krautboy: 1) After reading your whole message, I didn't QUITE catch where you transitioned to Shii Ann going in Ep. 6. 2) Remember that MB edits for TWO audiences: the non-spoiler and the spoiler audience. Non-spoiler Audience Editing: MB's editing has been episode-by-episode, one thing at a time. As a spoiler, I've caught a few little things here and there where MB is building up the bigger story (such as Erin's comments, Penny's comments, etc.), but for the most part, MB builds the suspense for the next episode. He does this with his non-spoiler audience in mind. And he's trying to keep/save ratings. He simply goes with the flow of the story, building up certain little things here and there that create maximum TV and drama, but aren't necessarly part of the overall story of who wins, or who is even booted next. So I expect that the slingshot challenge will get a bit physical, or at least MB will make the maximum out of what DOES happen. I also expect that MB is going to build his suspense out of Robb. Spoiler Audience editing: Because there has been SO MUCH spoiler material out there that has so-far proved correct, MB does, or should, realize that some of the bootee candidates are pretty obvious. While MB has strived to misdirect us (see: concentration on Shii Ann, see also: Dawg's thresd on Shii Ann as the reincarnation of Kathy), he doesn't appear to be doing so at the expense of his non-spoiler audience. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 11:26 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Just two issues" >I've only got two questions/issues for >you, Krautboy: > >1) After reading your whole message, >I didn't QUITE catch where >you transitioned to Shii Ann >going in Ep. 6. > Dawg: I'm not convinced Shii Ann goes in EP6 either, but using reverse logic I concluded that IF Robb and Shii Ann are the next two to go, Shii Ann didn't make sense for the merge episode, so by a process of elimination, she has to go in EP6. What I'm really looking for are the scenarios that have Shii Ann going after the merge in EP7 or making it to the jury and still becoming good friends with Ghandia and having time to smoke together... Keep that critical thinking going... Krautboy   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 11:12 PM (EST) 46. "Smoker's List just smoke and mirrors?" I think I posted this somewhere before, but can't remember where. What I'm really looking for are the scenarios that have Shii Ann going after the merge in EP7 or making it to the jury and still becoming good friends with Ghandia and having time to smoke together... If the scenario I posted below (Shii Ann betrays SJ then booted by everyone) is true, then I'm surmising that Shii Ann hates CG, so she and Ghandia get together after the show and commiserate on how they hate the follicle-ly challenged one, etc. Also, the smoker's spoiler really isn't very strong. Ghandia could find out that Shii Ann smokes before the show, after the show, after they get home, or even at RC/IC if they got to talk (doubtful, but you get the overall idea). So I'm not trying TOO hard to fit Shii Ann and Ghandia close together. There's just not room enough in Loser Lodge for ALL Ghandia's stars and smokers. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 09:11 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Reverse Logic" The Chuay Gahn alliance is much more likely to vote out Robb in EP7 than Shii Ann. I'll throw out one thought on why Shii Ann could be an EP7 target - prior votes. We know from Tanya's interview that prior votes did come into their minds at CG, since they weren't sure how tiebreakers would be decided this season. If they merge at 5-5, you can bet that CG will be trying to find out who on the other tribe has prior votes, just in case that is the tiebreaker again.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 01:42 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Reverse Logic" Great call, Bebo! All those looks and all those brains too... *sigh* "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-21-02, 10:32 AM (EST) 6. "Logic" I'm all in favor of reverse logic on most occasions, but I think it is usually more productive to start with logic. And to me, logic leads straight to a Robb boot. 1) Weight loss spoilers and Clay's comments indicate that Sookie is most likely returning to TC this episode. 2) The past 2 votes have revealed a division in the tribe between the hut people and the food people. A 5 person majority has voted out Jed, and Steph, while Jed, Steph, and Robb have voted for Shii Ann, a member of the 5 person majority. Logic says that the last member of the minority alliance will be voted out. That person is Robb. 3) Game Logic: The tribe is expecting an imminent merge. Logic dictates that it is therefore time to start taking out people who might be strong IC threats, as well as those who might be loose cannons. Robb is a much greater IC threat than Shii Ann is. Based on his screaming match with Ken, he is also more likely to bolt to Chewie and try to screw over Ken or others he perceives to have wronged him. All of this makes a Robb boot seem to me foreordained. The arguments for a Shii Ann boot are quite well made by Krautboy, and seem basically to be that Robb and Shii Ann are the next two and Shii Ann seems an unlikely E7 boot. But there are ways to explain it. 1) As Bebo points out, Shii Ann could be targeted if Chewie learns she has prior votes. Purple rock was so poorly received, EPMB might well go back to that method of determining tie breaks. 2) If Ken wins the E7 IC, Chewie might well target Shii just because of her intelligence. Remember, many challenges are mental. And Shii isn't really that much less of a physical threat than Jake, Erin, or Penny. 3) There might not be a merge. The E7 title is "Assumptions" after all. In that case, Shii seems to be the fifth member of the Hut People and would likely be the one let go if Sookie had to face a fourth TC. 4) The Gdiva spoilers could be wrong. There are many reasons Ghandia might know that Shii is a smoker without having smoked with her at loser lodge. Based on all that, I'm still leaning toward a Robb boot on Thursday.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 12:46 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Logic" Guessitrains: Didn't read your post here before responding to a few others...you and Bebo have laid out the options very nicely. Shii Ann as a "prior votes" target makes the most sense to me. In fact, that could very well be one of the "Assumptions" that the Chuay Gahn tribes makes as they plan their voting at the merge TC...not sure how the voting will go they find out that Shii Ann is an "outsider" within Sook Jai and assume that she has probably received previous votes, resulting in her boot at the merge TC. Thanks for helping me keep an open mind to the options. Back to the drawing board...Shii Ann or Robb, Robb or Shii Ann??? Krautboy   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 10:43 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Reverse Logic" I have the same problem with a Shii Ann boot in E6 that I did in E5. I just don't see a scenario where she goes before Robb. Shii Ann is in the Hut Sleepers alliance...for now. Erin may have issues with her, but I don't think she's pulling the strings for the group. She'll follow whatever Ken does, and Ken will want Robb gone...especially going into the merge. I also don't believe the smoking spoilers to be any more significant than Ghandia's comments about Jake. They don't necessitate that she have LL time with them. IMO, the spoiler that has more weight is Jed's post-boot comments defending Robb and Steph. After reading that article, I really thought (and still do after Steph's boot) that he was giving us the next 2 SJ to go. No, in this episode there are exactly 2 boot candidates: Robb and Jan. Since we have weight loss spoilers for several CG (including Jan), Clay's comments about not going back to TC after Ghandia, and zero evidence that Robb makes the merge. I have to conclude that there really is only 1 option this week--Robb. Fester   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 11:00 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Reverse Logic" Festerfan: Your analysis has been consistently accurate this season, so let me ask you this...if Robb goes in EP6, what scenario works for Shii Ann going next week in the merge episode? Or do you think that Shii Ann and Ghandia became friends after the game and Shii Ann is actually on the jury? Krautboy   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-21-02, 11:09 AM (EST) 10. "Purple Rock" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-02 AT 11:10 AM (EST) If they use the purple rock to decide a tie again ANYONE could logically leave in E7. -ICB   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-02, 11:39 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Purple Rock again!!! UGH" I hate that purple rock. I think it is highly unlikely MB will use the rock again. Most of the bootees have indicated that they do not know what will happen with tie votes. This could be where the interesting twist of the season can come into play. So far we have been handed quite a bit of information. There HAS TO BE some surprise somewhere. It could be in the breaking of tie votes. Question: Where do the votes stand currently? We know that Clay and Helen at CG have votes and Shii at SJ. How many for each?   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-21-02, 12:21 PM (EST) 17. "Previous Votes" Though I don't consider it that likely that we will revert to previous votes to resolve tiebreakers, the question is what the Survivors think, and some of them may well worry about such matters. So here's the running total Shii Ann.....5 Clay.........3 Helen........2 Still, this only matters if a) prior votes count, and b) somebody in Chewie figures out that Shii has the votes. Is that particularly likely?   Top

bobstew617 723 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-21-02, 11:00 PM (EST) 45. "RE: Purple Rock again!!! UGH" >I hate that purple rock. I think it is highly >unlikely MB will use the >rock again. I hope he doesn't either, BUT it has placed enough uncertainty (and fear) into their minds that they don't want to end up like Paschal in S4. I think MB may just use this now to make someone break from the "party line" and shift over. It will be interesting if it does go 5-5 into the merge, how this will be handled.   Top

TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 11:33 PM (EST) 47. "RE: Purple Rock again!!! UGH" He might change the color.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 11:53 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Reverse Logic" Wow, thanks for the props Krautboy! That's a great compliment coming from someone whose posts I have always found to be well thought out. As for your question...I could foresee a scenario where the remaining CG play the numbers game and try to find out who has prior votes (as mentioned above) just in case the tie-break reverts back to pre-S4 rules. However, they would have to either get first hand knowledge that Shii has votes or make an educated guess based on a very limited time together. It wouldn't be that big of a stretch that they would come to the conclusion that Shii is most likely to have votes against her. They all know what happened in S4 with Pappy and the purple rock, however. In light of that, a Mexican stand-off seems more and more unlikely. I think Helen, Brian, Clay, Penny, Shii Ann, and Jake at the very least will be very reluctant to put their faith in a burlap bag when there is a 50% chance that they'll be set up to be Pagonged and a 10% chance that they'll be taking the walk themselves. Kinda lends itself pretty well to the "Assumptions" title, eh? Whatever assumptions the players have about tie-breakers will influence how they vote. At the moment I'm leaning toward her making the jury, and it wouldn't really surprise me if she defected. She's a very difficult person to get a read on, and they may have been foreshadowing when they aired some of her thoughts about switching tribes last week. I'm just not going to pick her to go based on Ghandia saying she smoked with her. Just like I wouldn't pick Jake to go solely based on Ghandia's comments about him. Fester   Top

ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 12:16 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Reverse Logic" The thing about guessing who has previous votes can perhaps be seen in the challenges so far. Remember the reward challenge in Episode 3, the physical challenge where SJ had many players disqualified, remember Shii Ann had one scene where she was totally useless, look at the reaction from Robb, Steph and Jed, these 3 had similar disgusted reactions. So if CG figured that the 3 boots for SJ were Jed, Steph and then Robb, they might figure that they have some dislike for Shii Ann... For those who missed it, maybe can revisit www.cbs.com video archive in episode 3 the reward challenge   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 12:59 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Reverse Logic" This is very interesting. I did think SJ might dump Shii Ann in Ep 5 as a precaution against her prior votes. But since they didn't, I also feel quite certain that Robb will be SJ's next victim, as a future individual immunity threat and the most peripheral tribe member. Then Shii Ann is only logical as a first post-merge boot if she is targeted by CG as someone likely to have prior votes, and loses a tiebreaker on that basis. And thus she winds up at LL. But if they don't know the tiebreak rule, is anyone going to take that chance? It's worth looking at GDiva's smoking remark again. This was her actual post: GDiva Potential bannee (8/22/02 1:01:48 pm) Reply To Midnight Prince69 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No one was allowed to smoke in the game. Clay, Shii & I smoke cigarettes. Occasionally, Rob smoked also. Now, this looks to be in response to a poster's question about the smoking rule. GDiva clarified the rule, and then stated the people affected by it. First she used the present indefinite tense -- as if to say "Clay, Shii & I indulge in this habit." Grammatically that does not imply that they smoked together at any point in time, just that they are smokers who were affected by the rule. But she used the past *definite* tense for Robb by including the word "occasionally" -- implying she was with Robb for an extended period of time wherein she observed him smoke a cigarette now and then. Now I don't know if GDiva was such a stickler for the nuances of grammar when she posted, but since no one thinks Clay is going to LL though he is a smoker, it may mean nothing regarding Shii Ann either. I thought the star list was a better indication for Shii Ann, but not all the stars can go to LL.   Top

NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-02, 04:36 PM (EST) 35. "My thoughts exactly" Great post roach! You articulated exactly what I was thinking about this smokers' spoiler. If Clay is on her smokers list, why aren't we talking about a possible Clay boot? The possiblity of a Clay boot is just as unlikely this episode as a Shi boot. Thus, I determine that Shii Ann is safe. Further evidence: Who has voted against Shi-Ann? Robb, Stephanie, and Jed. The fact that Robb hates her is no secret to anyone, least of all Shi Ann. The other two people who voted for her are gone! The only one left to vote for her is Robb, and he probably will again. We have very little indication that she is a target for the other SJ's. Yes, Erin gossiped about her, but does that indicate she wants to vote against her? NO! People talk all kinds of smack about each other in confessionals as well as with other tribe members. Remember Kathy? Did anyone have anything good to say about her for the first 5 or 6 episodes? NO! I distinctly remember Neleh complaining about Kathy's abrasive personality the very episode she went on to boot Gina. So, just because Erin made some catty comments about Shi doesn't mean she intends to vote her out. Jake likes her, Penny and Ken have basically said nothing one way or another, so I don't see Shi being their next logical boot. Robb, on the other hand, is not voting with the Sook Jai 5, has annoyed his tribe on more than one occasion, and apparantly gets into a verbal altercation with Ken in the coming episode. I made a mistake last week by over-thinking my vote. I figured Stephanie was "too obvious" (geez, just one week after I warned others against over-thinking their picks!) so I went for Shi as a surprise boot. I agree that Ghandia could have smoked with Shi anytime after the game. Maybe she never smoked with her! Maybe she saw her smoking some time before the game started. Anyway, I do not think she is a logical boot based on a pre-merge scenario. Should the tribes merge and people assume past votes break the tie, then I could see a pre-emptive strike to get rid of the only person in the tribe with votes.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 06:25 PM (EST) 41. "RE: My thoughts exactly" Thanks, NightScribe. I picked Shii Ann to get the boot last week too, mostly because I got suckered by that damn Snickers "spoiler"! But since SJ didn't kick her out last week, I'm convinced they won't do it this week either -- Robb is definitely going before her. If she does go in Ep 7, it would most likely be as the result of some technicality in the first post-merge vote, like losing a tiebreaker. But we have no idea how these people are going to play -- I'm assuming they were told NOTHING about the tiebreaking procedure and whether past votes count or not. So they'll just be winging it. But in any case, I agree that the smokers list doesn't prove Shii Ann will go to Losers Lodge. Maybe yes, maybe no at this point.   Top

smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 10-21-02, 12:50 PM (EST) 20. "Jan's foreshadowing?" Jan made a comment last ep. that Clay 'doesn't forgive or forget'. This was referring to Jan voting for Clay in the last TC. Clay was pretty choked about this, as he seemed disgusted with Jan throughout the entire ep. If Clay gets that upset over a vote cast against him, I can imagine he is still raging inside over the treatment Robb gave him at the ep.3 RC (chokeslam into the water). A scenario that seems pretty logical in my eyes, and I am basing this partly on the fact that previous votes WILL count, as we have the Assumptions title for ep. 7 (which will mean that the tribe assumes a new tie-breaker method) and Ghandia's 'coming down to a rock in the bag' comment from ep.4 (which means that it won't) is: 1) Shii Ann getting the boot this ep. for reasons listed earlier in this post (Gdiva's stars, smoker's club, Erin's comments, Clay's comment etc.) Shii Ann would probably throw a vote against Robb as she departs. 2) A 5-5 split going into the merge. CG could target Robb as a) an act of revenge for Clay b) An immunity threat eliminated and c) A good bet that he must have votes against him. SJ would likely target Jan as she is the weakest member of that tribe and they will assume that someone had to throw a vote at her at some stage of the game. We have a 5-5 tie, and Robb loses the previous votes tiebreaker. Goodbye Robb. Goodbye Sook Jai. Hello Chuay Gahn final five. Thoughts?   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-02, 01:03 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Jan's foreshadowing?" I like it. It seems very plausible. However, I am not so sure Jake would want to get rid of Shii before Robb. His comments about Shii during epi 5 surprised me. But that could be classic MB direction. Another but, we have not seen much classic misdirection this season so Jake & Co may keep Shii around. This could be their downfall merge time and she switches over to CG as suggested by someone above. (Sorry I had a brain block).   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 10-21-02, 01:24 PM (EST) 24. "Ghandia's "Stars" list" Again, you can't use Ghandia's Stars list to say that means Shii Ann goes to Loser Lodge. Let's look at who's there so far. Jed and Stephanie. The two of them still are talking about Shii Ann in their exit interviews. Who knows how much they whined to Ghandia about Shii while they were sequestered? It wouldn't be difficult to find out of Shee smoked as well, if only because she might be complaining about withdrawals off camera.   Top

MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-21-02, 01:20 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Jan's foreshadowing?" The problem with this thought is that there isn't GAME evidence of a Shii Ann boot. It doesn't make sense as far as the SJ strategy, especially Jake/Penny/Erin/Ken, to vote off Shii. The only thing I can think of, in the context of the game, is Erin's comments about Shii, but we know that Jake likes Shii and I bet Ken likes Shii (His comment about her being a 'city girl' was probably in her defence to Robb.) No offence ladies, but it seems a lot more likely that Penny and Erin will follow the guys' lead then for the guys to follow Erin's caprices. I don't put a lot of weight in Ghandia's testimony. We've seen her mouth. I think that Robb is a very likely boot candidate. I don't see CG targeting Shii post-merge, I think SJ may be able to keep her past votes under wrap ("The survivors don't make the same mistakes this time" ie. Varner has votes (S2), Lindsey has votes(S3)) The Shii boot is misdirection, the Kathy of Survivor 5. MM   Top

Boilermaker 260 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-21-02, 02:36 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Jan's foreshadowing?" Oh the different ways this could all play out are starting to give me a headache. That being said I think Robb is the most likely candidate for getting the boot based on game logic, alliances that we (think we)know, and GDiva spoilers, and I swear to myself here in front of you all that I will pick Robb. A couple of my thoughts from the information that I have read. GAME LOGIC and ALLIANCES -Robb is part of the losing faction in SJ -A strong alliance going into the merge is a huge advantage/need -Robb is the most likely to leave the SJ alliance if a merge occurred -Robb is possibly the most athletic person on SJ and would have an immunity advantage if the tribes merged -After the merge individual athleticism, in most cases, is more of a weakness to your faction than a strength -SJ tried not to win one and possibly two ICs already and may be preparing to boot one more before the merge -Even if SJ tries to win immunity, with losing Jed and Steph they have significantly weakened the team. Although they appear more athletic still than CG, they might not be. PREVIEWS -Show Ken and Robb fighting which would make Ken's faction more likely to dump Robb now GDIVA SPOILERS -I believe that GDiva is Ghandia and that she gave us information that if we read between the lines correctly -Robb and Shii are included in both the smokers and stars list -Clay is in the smoker list but he is the only one that was on Ghandia's tribe. I agree with those that think the purple rock will not happen again if there is a tie. But will a tie even occur in week 7. So far this "Evil" version of Survivor that we have been forewarned about isn't so evil. My week 7 assumption is that Shii will try to ally herself with CG, with assurances that they will keep her, and then CG will then know it is safe to vote her off.   Top

MakeItStop 1098 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-21-02, 01:43 PM (EST) 26. "ShiiAnn and Loser Lodge" A lot of people are assuming that ShiiAnn ends up at loser lodge because of the smokers list and because Ghandia and ShiiAnn are friends. I also thought that. But now I am wondering if this friendship could have started at the wrap party. Both of them are minorities. They both hate most of their tribemates. This could have been the common bond that brought them together. “She’s a beauty queen gone bad!” -- Marcellus about Amy.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 01:50 PM (EST) 29. "Back to Forward Logic..." LAST EDITED ON 10-21-02 AT 02:39 PM (EST) Okay peeps, I read through this thresd and didn't see this written, but if it was, my advance apologies. Now we need to get Occam's Razor and get SIMPLE here. Here's what we know: 1) Weight loss spoilers indicate CG players go deep; ergo, they "win" the merge TC. 2) Robb is very, very likely to be gone, and soon. 3) Shii Ann has been shown, especailly in Episode 5, to not be happy with her tribe. While some of you take No. 3 as either foreshadowning of her dismissal OR misdirection, I take it a different way. I surmise that 1) Robb is gone in Ep. 6. Alternate Jan. 2) The "5-5" tie is going to be 6-4... with Shii Ann defecting from her tribe and voting with the CGs. Who is likely? My guess is Ken. 3) After that, Shii Ann is hated by SJ, and CG really has no use for her. A'la Brandon and Zzzoe, everyone pauses to take time to agree on someone to wax: Shii Ann. This way, Shii Ann's "defection" will make her (briefly) a star of the show. She'll then be bitter about being summarily cast out by the CGs (as well as the SJs), so she and Ghandia talk about their hatreds of various CG members. The smokers list? Not such a big deal; Ghandia could have learned about that pre-show, post-show, or at an RC or IC for that matter. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 04:02 PM (EST) 31. "What's Shii Ann's motive?" Dawg: You've sure been doing a lot of the "heavy lifting" this season...I've enjoyed reading you stuff. Is Occam's Razor still sharp? Robb is the obvious boot this week. There are plenty of reason's to consider him and as you've pointed out elsewhere, MB has chosen to allow the general viewing audience to enjoy being able to predict the storyline. So, it's very possible that Occam's Razor will slit Robb's throat. I think we can also conclude that the merge will happen at 5-5. MB would not miss the opportunity for a potential stand-off, or the back-stabbibg it may produce. I also agree that Ken is the logical target for Chuay Gahn if Robb is already gone. He fits the merge boot profile. The part I am not clear on is why Shii Ann would defect to the Chuay Gahn, if she is not the target of either tribe. In a 5-5 standoff she would have to think she's got a 50-50 chance of being on the tribe that takes control after TC and she's smart enough to know that in the game of survivor, defectors don't last long. (as you have also speculated) We need to have a motive for for Shii Ann to defect in order for your scenario to make sense. What is it? Shii Ann might consider a defection if she "assumed" she was a previous vote target and helping the Chuay Gahn gain control would be rewarded, but as you surmise in your scenario, her only reward would be the first spot on the jury? Is that worth the risk to her? That's where the razor gets a little dull... Krautboy   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 04:14 PM (EST) 33. "Defection Logic" It depends on when the defection occurs. Shii Ann is the fifth wheel in the hutsleepers alliance and feels vulnerable now as the culturally different minority. However, she would likely stick with her tribe at least to the point where a tie vote occurs. Facing the prospect of the purple rock, particularly if she isn't one of the ones targetted by the voting (for a change) could motivate her to negotiate into CG. She is smart enough to perhaps pick up on the rifts within CG, without those to exploit she would just be avoiding the purple rock in order to get on the jury. But she isn't Brandon, she is accustomed to reading and even motivating others in her chosen profession, so she might jump if she believes she can create an advantageous situation for herself within the game. Sook Jai, of course, would never forgive her. Alternate scenario: Shii Ann wins first individual immunity, doesn't defect, but another Sook Jai draws the purple rock, leaving her free to play into CG since SJ is just going to be Pagonged anyway. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 06:36 PM (EST) 42. "RE: What's Shii Ann's motive?" The part I am not clear on is why Shii Ann would defect to the Chuay Gahn, if she is not the target of either tribe. In a 5-5 standoff she would have to think she's got a 50-50 chance of being on the tribe that takes control after TC and she's smart enough to know that in the game of survivor, defectors don't last long. (as you have also speculated) I can give several scenarios why. As to which is reality, I'm not sure: 0) First, she may not realize the defector issue. Brandon would've survived had he talked to Lil'Kim and switched back. 1) Shii Ann is no better than 5th with SJ. She already seems to have problems with them. So she talks to someone on CG, convinces them she'll switch. The CGs certainly have nothing to lose by taking her at her word and not voting FOR her, but for someone else. 2) Shii Ann has reason to believe that the CGs will vote for her (previous votes?) or perhaps that the SJs will turn on her. So she defects. 3) Shii Ann may just go crazy and see visions. I only bring this entire scenario up because of MB's editing of Shii Ann. Why bother showing her displeasure with her tribe at the Switch Offer? Showing Steph was obvious, as she was about to be shown to have turned down a lifesaving offer. But why Shii Ann? My conclusion is that MB is building up to something with Shii Ann, and this seem to fill in some facts. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-23-02, 10:51 PM (EST) 52. "RE: What's Shii Ann's motive?" >I only bring this entire scenario >up because of MB's editing >of Shii Ann. Why >bother showing her displeasure with >her tribe at the Switch >Offer? Showing Steph was >obvious, as she was about >to be shown to have >turned down a lifesaving offer. > But why Shii Ann? > My conclusion is that >MB is building up to >something with Shii Ann, and >this seem to fill in >some facts. I believe MB did this to make us think that Shii Ann is in a tough spot with her tribe. It is also made to make us think they will vote her out before dood. "This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham   Top

OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-22-02, 10:15 AM (EST) 49. "RE: What's Shii Ann's motive?" You guys are very sharp here! I admire your concentration and analytical thinking. I am not usually in this forum, but may I give my opinion as an outsider looking in? I'll take that as a yes. Please look at my perspective as a viewer who just enjoys the show....why, I don't know, but imagine. MB could not care less about the boards, really, it's the show viewers he needs. More viewers, more commercials, more shows, more fame, more , more more is L.A. His viewers (22 million compared to 5000 (?) on the boards) are his bread and butter. A lot of them relate to Robb, because he has a skateboard (DUDE! that dude's so koool!)is irreverent (and irrelevant at times) and every TTK, 15 and over would love that piercing, and now he has a reported slutty girlfriend on another reality show! He's the BOMB! I disgressed. What were the over hyped commercials we saw? Robb chocking Clay, Robb dying in ocean and now Robb fights with Ken. Robb is good for ratings and drawing the youngsters in. Now as a big Hollywood executive, since Robb is the flavor of the month, whether least liked or best liked, you don't tease your average 80 IQ audience with ads of the Robb man in another controversy to have him booted. They won't come back to watch Jan, Clay, Jake or Helen (who look like their grandparents) the next week. The week he gets the boot,he'll be invisible in the previews. The girls don't seem to be warming up to Ken, but they're friendly with Dude (except Shii) and Robb has been shown working more than Ken. Therefore I think Ken is the one going. I could be wrong...LOL! On the other tribe Jan's the boot, but even the 5 year olds know that! Please don't laugh at me. I have low self esteem. And if I'm wrong I will know, so don't rub it in. My next step will be to do the Tarot. I'll get back to you on that. As you can tell I'm not an analytical thinker, I just try to put myself in the small mind of the average of the TV viewer and then try to react as MB trying to please them. Analytically that would make MB a fame and money hungry attention getting media whore. Everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants TO DIE!!!!!!!   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-23-02, 10:34 AM (EST) 51. "RE: What's Shii Ann's motive?" Not laughing at you, OceanSkater, as I happen to agree that Robb has had a lot of entertainment value. Let's face it, whether you love him or loathe him, he's the sort of person who takes center stage and demands your attention. And since this is basically just a TV show, good for him! Having said that, I have to disagree about your supposition that Robb wouldn't be in the promo the week he gets booted. Robb is just too good a draw for MB to not squeeze everything he can out of it. That's not about Robb, it's about MB who is evil! MB doesn't care if people are watching because they love Robb or are wanting desperately to see Robb get waxed, he'll use Robb to draw us all in however he can. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

OceanSkater 315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-24-02, 01:56 AM (EST) 53. "RE: What's Shii Ann's motive?" .....which means that if this IS Robb's last week, MB will make extra sure that he exploits all Robb footage, and promote Thursday's show with it, hopefully coming up with an enticing "trailer" (sans Robb)for the next show to get the viewer to come back. So let's hope this show has some memorable development of some kind to bait the masses. Or simply to not bore us to tears. Everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants TO DIE!!!!!!!   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 04:12 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Reverse Logic" Great Post Krautboy (by the way, my mother has that hummel in your pic) I also think Shii may go next (as opposed to my prior thinking that she may last) I was thinking thay Robb is next, but Shii makes sense to me for the following reason. Shii may be an alliance jumper (if she is considered in an alliance). Robb is most likely not. He is not in with the whole hut alliance, but Erin agrees with him about Shii, Ken and him were buddy buddy in Ep1 (I know the fight looks bad, but so did the stingray sting in the previews) and he probably still thinks Clay is a whiney little punk and Big Ted is not so Big. Therefore he will most likely stay with the SJs post merge, but Shii will be the one to watch out for. SHii could make some moves with herself and the Chewies to boot some SJ members. This makes her a big threat to the Hut folks, and as many people here are saying, Ken is thinking several days ahead, and may know about this. Use Shii to help boot Jed/Steph (both threats IMO) and then dump her. Then if your plan does not work out Post Merge, you have a guy (ROBB) with a huge target on him (and disliked by the chewies) to vote out over himself (Ken, the other big guy). I think that the SJ members will know Robbbbbb is easy pickings post-merge, by Clay and the Chewy's. Why give them anything other than what you want to happen. So this is my "current" gut feeling based upon many posts here. Later D.R.   Top

BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-02, 04:22 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Reverse Logic" Q I dont want to say your are totally wrong..but I think it is important to pick the two biggest targets on each tribe..and for the most part everybody seems to believe that Robb is screwed.. I believe this for a number of reasons but the most crucial one is that up to this point in the game nobody has really said anything negative about Robb except Shii herself..but on the other hand we have negative thoughts about Shii left in right not just from Robb but from Erin now too..I think this coming episode MB will once again play up Shii has the boot and then it will be 5-1 with Robb sent packing..   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 04:39 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Reverse Logic" Don't get me wrong, I am hoping beyond hope that Robb is booted this week. That is primarily why I think he will stay (LOL). Its my curse. Never to get what I want and to be annoyed by guys named Robb. And Yes I think Jan is edited as being a goner, but I will bet my money on Clay leaving the game before her. And by the way what is with Rob(b) and survivor. Do they just get dumber once they are picked or what. Not that Boston Rob was stupid, but he did have the "stupid on my forhead" comment and now Robb has the "I'm not stupid" comment to Ken? If your name is Rob(b), don't sign up for survivor, they mandate a lobotomy prior to leaving L.A. Later, D.R.   Top

BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-02, 04:47 PM (EST) 37. "RE: Reverse Logic" lol Q..Now I am having second thoughts about Robb leaving!!..god I hope he goes.. And I also think the despondent underdog is going to be Clay for some odd reason..this is of course as long as Robb is booted this week   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-02, 05:46 PM (EST) 39. "Despondent Underdog?" Q: I think we still need to consider that the "despondent male" that becomes an underdog we root for, can still be Robb... If Ken is forced to reveal that Robb has been used as a pawn to get rid of Jed and Steph, that may make Robb despondent and also give us reason to root for him. He has now become the underdog. It also appears that his redemption starts after the Sook Jai win the RC and Robb is shown hugging another Sook Jai (Ken?)after they return late from their feast. We would also be presented a rehabilitated Robb next episode and root for Robb the underdog, to make the Jury, which he doesn't. So, his redemption could start this week after his fight with Ken, if he is edited to have been betrayed or suckered by the rest of his tribe... Krautboy   Top

BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-02, 05:57 PM (EST) 40. "RE: Despondent Underdog?" Yes,but are you implying that Robb ends up making it to episode 7 or do we root for him and then he is voted off the very same episode(episode 6)..I'm a little confused And another reason why I think Robb is gettin booted is generally I think MB prefers 5 females and 5 males..Africa being the sole exception..this really isn't spoiler material whatsoever but it is still something to think about If Shii or Jan get booted and I am assuming there will be a merge in episode 7 it will be 6 guys and 4 girls But if Robb goes then everything is evened up for the merge and we have 5 girls and 5 guys   Top

ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-22-02, 06:53 AM (EST) 48. "RE: Despondent Underdog?" What has sex got to do with it???? Then what about the Final 4 last season where 3 were females? And all 3 made it to the Final 3...   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-21-02, 05:14 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Reverse Logic" Krautboy, thanks so much for this excellent post. It's given me and everybody else a lot to think about. I just wanted to point out a few further thoughts about prior votes, purple rocks, and the like. 1) Part of the reason for targeting Clay instead of Ted in E4 might have been his prior vote. Clay and Ghandia each had one at that point, while Ted had none. I know that Ghandia told Helen the vote against Clay was because Jan wanted to keep Ted, but we earlier saw Ghandia asking Jan to vote for Clay. If the Chewies continue to think that far ahead, they might target Shii whether or not they know prior votes count, and do everything in their power to hide the prior votes against Helen and Clay. (Of course, this could go both ways. If Sookie is thinking far ahead, they may conclude that Shii has way more votes than anybody on Chewie and decide to wax her for that reason.) 2) I don't think anybody is likely to defect and the initial vote at least will be a 5-5 deadlock. Depending on tiebreakers, any number of scenarios could play out. At least at this point, and based on the Ken-Robb spat that is imminent, I see zero basis for concluding that Robb is less likely to jump ship than Shii Ann. We (and the Sookies) know Robb is an emotional loose cannon. Of course, we also know that Robb is a poor fit to bond with any of the Chewies, but the Sookies don't. 3) Brownroach's post seems to completely negate any assumption that Ghandia and Shii Ann must smoke together in loser lodge. Ghandia never smoked with Clay before or during the game, and I'm sure she steered clear of him afterwards. But she easily could have talked to Shii Ann at the wrap party or on the way home about how hard it was not to smoke during the game.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 07:47 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Reverse Logic" Many excellent points made about both Robb and Shii Ann. It has seemed for some time to me that Robb would go before Shii Ann, but I couldn't figure how Shii would go in 10th place. Now I see how that could happen. Interesting that although most posters are now discounting GDiva's smoker list, Robb and Shii are still the focus for the next two boots. One tiny thing to add: Shii has had so much face time, and been such a narrator, that it would appear to be a waste of building her up just to boot her off, but that's what happened with da Robbfadda, so maybe that's what'll happen here, too.   Top

fivestarwheezy 958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-02, 08:16 PM (EST) 44. "RE: Reverse Logic" What about a certain 'person who jumps out of planes', and his take on Shii Ann. It seems that he believes that Shii Ann goes a little farther in the game at the very least. I thought in a different thread last week I read a comment from SB or from Dawg (sorry, I looked but couldn't find it back) that there was agreement on that. Apologies if I'm way out of whack--I don't think anyone's made mention of this yet. Comments? Thanks, Wheezer   Top

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