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CoolWaves 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-18-02, 12:48 PM (EST) "FACE TIME" After 4 seasons of Survivor, I've figured MB out. FACE TIME. It's very predictable from here on out. I wish I had taped all the episodes so I could prepare a PHD on the subject, but I think, MB gives more FACE TIME in the beginning episodes to those who will be voted out first. For example, Survivor Thailand, a majority of time has been devoted to Chuay Gahn, which indicates that after the merger, they will be out numbered, and then voted off one by one. In contrast, at this point we barely know these four: Jake, Ken, Penny, and Erin, which leads me to believe they will be the final four. The spate between Rob and Shii Ann is good TV, and also indicates they won't be around as long as my final four. So here's how it goes. I'm making big assumptions that there are no more secret shake ups (which could kill my entire theory). Did you notice what a lame no effect was the "Does anyone want to switch tribes offer?": Jan out next week, Merge. Chuay Gahn has 4, Sook Jai 6. Ted, Brian, Clay, Helen. Gone. Final 6, all Sook Jai, Rob, Shii Ann. Final Four Jake, Penny, Erin, Ken. Final Three: Jake, Penny, Ken. I'm going with an all male final, a first for Survivor, Ken and Jake, with Jake the ultimate survivor. Watch the FACE TIME, it is a dead give away. Be gentle on your slams.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Calling all Clowns TechNoir 10-18-02 1    Why do they do it to themselves? SurvivaBear 10-18-02 2        RE: Why do they do it to themselves... SherpaDave 10-18-02 5            RE: Why do they do it to themselves... SurvivinDawg 10-18-02 13        Why I did it to myself... CoolWaves 10-18-02 10            RE: Why I did it to myself... TechNoir 10-18-02 12  RE: FACE TIME SmokeWilliams 10-18-02 3    RE: FACE TIME ZJ 10-18-02 4    RE: FACE TIME Cathy the Canadian 10-18-02 6  RE: FACE TIME wendyp 10-18-02 7    RE: FACE TIME Loree 10-18-02 8        RE: FACE TIME smrtNsassybnkr 10-18-02 9  RE: FACE TIME Jims02 10-18-02 11  GOOD THINKING..... MikeD 10-18-02 14  RE: FACE TIME SurvivinDawg 10-18-02 15  RE: FACE TIME bichon 10-18-02 16  RE: FACE TIME ZJ 10-19-02 17    RE: FACE TIME Drive My Car 10-19-02 18        RE: FACE TIME ZJ 10-19-02 21    Merck Manual... snoocharoo 10-21-02 23  RE: FACE TIME blacknwhitedog 10-19-02 19    RE: FACE TIME dabo 10-21-02 22  RE: FACE TIME bobstew617 10-19-02 20    RE: FACE TIME toddE 10-21-02 24

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TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 01:01 PM (EST) 1. "Calling all Clowns" It is time to come out of retirement to comment on this BRAND NEW THEORY.   Top

SurvivaBear 2634 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-18-02, 01:11 PM (EST) 2. "Why do they do it to themselves?" TN, I shouldn't reply because I will simply bump this thread, but inviting the Clown is too much. Wave, Read, read some more, and then if you have something NEW post. Beware the Bear! An IceCat Original, © 2002   Top

SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 03:04 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Why do they do it to themselves?" While the face time theory certainly isn't new, I don't think it's been heavily discussed recently. Nothin' wrong with taking a look again at how it plays out from here. Criminals From the Neck Up   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 06:53 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Why do they do it to themselves?" Agree. And this IS a relevant thread especially in the light that MB has changed his editing style for this series. Therefore, there might be some relevant value in this discussion with respect to that issue. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

CoolWaves 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-18-02, 05:34 PM (EST) 10. "Why I did it to myself..." While my theory indeed is not new, this board is apparently for spoilers and speculations. I'm not spoiling anything here, just speculating. In addition, if it does play out as I've indicated, this "Face Time" theory will indeed merit more scrutiny down the line in other Survivor seasons. Or, I may I end up looking like the fool you already think I am. Je pense donc je suis. I think therefore I am. CW   Top

TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 05:53 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Why I did it to myself..." Thank you so much for translating the French for us.   Top

SmokeWilliams 36 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-18-02, 02:35 PM (EST) 3. "RE: FACE TIME" While I totally believe that Face time plays a major role in determining who stays for a long time, there is the occasional aberation. Remember Zoe?? Me neither, she barely talked and the main reason was not because she made the final 2, but because she had no personality. I think that your final 4 is a possibility. But we do have reason to believe some members of Chewy make it far. Perhaps Erin is really just a set of T!ts and not much else, I watched her audition tape and it was nothing more than, "Hi, I am wearing a tight shirt. Look at my cans. Can I be on Survivor?" The end. Penny's wasn't much better. So they could go far, but they could just be BORING!! No one deserved to win more than Colby!!   Top

ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-18-02, 02:59 PM (EST) 4. "RE: FACE TIME" Don't necessarily agree on that. The problem is that we practically know and see how the CG 5 work out and what is their personality and such, they been edited frequently. In SJ, who do we have? We don't know Ken or Penny or Erin. Penny is playing the game, she lied to Jed, Ken lied to Robb. They're all lying, but we haven't been shown that by MB. I think the SJ 4 are going to make it all the way. Even Shii Ann, who contemplated switching tribes, lied straight in the face when JP asked her at Tribal Council if she thought of changing. From past episodes, TC is usually where the truth is grilled out... But I admire Shii for being able to lie straight in the face.   Top

Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-18-02, 03:14 PM (EST) 6. "RE: FACE TIME" Remember Zoe?? Me neither... And the reverse, remember Kathy? We saw so much of her we were sure she was getting the boot, then she went on to make final 3. Helen is emerging as the Kathy of this survivor - she could go far.   Top

wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-18-02, 04:39 PM (EST) 7. "RE: FACE TIME" Your face time theory is good. However I do not agree with you that they will keep all the SJ while voting out all the CG at first. Remember Clarence in S3? Remember Jeri in S2? The point is you get rid of one or two to show your power and then you boot the annoying ones! I think Ted would be targeted first from CG, for obvious reasons. But if it is a 6 vs 4 would they go for Ted or Robb first?   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 05:22 PM (EST) 8. "RE: FACE TIME" I think the purple tribe also has to worry about Shii Ann joining up with the other tribe after the merge. If she is already crying and feeling nobody likes her, she may want to join with the other team so they would be smart to take her out early. One reason I find it odd that we haven't seen alot of Erin, Penny, Ken and Jake is that they are the more attractive players. MB usually wants to showcase the attractive ones for ratings. So he does have some reason for hiding them. Even if they all 4 didn't have a personality he wouldn't hide them so much. So I am surprised we are getting so much of the older tribe with only Brian worth looking at. But we mostly only see Robb and Shii Ann on the other tribe. The J/K/E/P 4-some are being hidden for a reason.   Top

smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-18-02, 05:27 PM (EST) 9. "RE: FACE TIME" Personally, I think Jake, Ken, Erin and Penny don't have as much face time, is because they are going to get plenty AFTER the merge. They need to give face time to those who are on their way out......Erin is getting more and more face time but we still haven't seen much more of the SJ-4. I DO think they could go all the way, but something tells me that Brian, at least, and/or Helen will get in the way of them making it to the final 4!   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 05:49 PM (EST) 11. "RE: FACE TIME" Before Shakes shows up, I'd like to comment that although this is not a brand new theory, it hasn't really been discussed too much recently. My take on it? Chuay Ghan Brian- He's been a little more visible lately since his tribe's numbers are dwindling. Has definitely played the role as the middle man of the tribe. Clay- Clay is like Brian somewhat. He's been sort of visible throughout, but moreso than Brian. His face time peaked in the last Episode and #3, with the Ghandia debate. Jan- She is probably the most UTR player on the tribe, and the most vulnerable. Seems like a Zoe editing if CG goes to TC, WHENEVER that happens. Ted- One of the main characters of CG. Obviously (duh) was a main player in the Ghandia dispute. Since then, his face time has gone down, be he was defintiely highlighted last night in the whole boat incident. Helen- She's been getting a steady increase in face time lately, which is making me wonder. I doubt if it's anything though. Before I move to Sook Jai, I want to point out how even some of the face time was in Chuay Ghan's tribe in the last episode. Sook Jai Robb- Definitely one of the main characters of Sook Jai. He really hasn't developed any kind of storyline yet, except the fact that he's a goofy kid. Shii Ann- Another person that has gotten a lot of face time throughout. Always the "ghost pick" to suspense the audience, which is interesting. I see Robb or she as the "despondant underdog" of the tribe. Erin, Penny, Jake, Ken- These people share about the same % of face time. None of them really say things except for general statements that start with "we." Obviously, Ken's face time will increase due to the fight next week. That's just my thought though. I'm always open to some intelligent analysis. Quotes of the week 1. "You will NOT see my ta-ta's" -Shii Ann 2. "Do they think I'm too controlling?" -Helen (um, yeah) 3. "My two year old (had a tantrum) one time and I whupped its @$$ and put it back to bed." -Clay 4. "I'm putting in an order for a bigger butt in my next life." -Jan (randomly)   Top

MikeD 344 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-18-02, 08:57 PM (EST) 14. "GOOD THINKING....." this sounds like an interesting theory. The only thing that concerns me is Rich, Sue, and Rudy had a lot of face time at the beginning of the 1st season. Colby, Elizabeth, and Keith (and even Tina) had a lot of face time in the 2nd season. Lex and Big Tom were clearly visible in the 3rd season. And Kathy was prominently featured in the 4th version. But I do agree that face time must play an interesting part during this season. Im going to go out on a limb here and say that Shi Ann is the "underdog" Jeff Probst was talking about. She may be the person that we dont like at first and root for later. Jake's speech to her last night was not shown to us by accident. Jan, Clay, Ted, Brian and Helen are doomed I think. Their story is almost over while the other tribe's story is just beginning...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-02, 09:06 PM (EST) 15. "RE: FACE TIME" Cool Waves, your theory is interesting, but a few things must be pointed out. I'll try to be gentle. Jan out next week, Merge. Chuay Gahn has 4, Sook Jai 6. Ted, Brian, Clay, Helen. Gone. Final 6, all Sook Jai, Rob, Shii Ann. Final Four Jake, Penny, Erin, Ken. Final Three: Jake, Penny, Ken. I'm going with an all male final, a first for Survivor, Ken and Jake, with Jake the ultimate survivor. Face time is ONE thing, it is not EVERYthing. There are other spoilers, pieces of information, out there. One is the Weight Loss spoiler. In every show, people who returned home having lost a LOT of weight are generally found to have gone deep into the game. Several CGs were reported to have lost a LOT of weight. Ted was rumored to have lost 50 pounds. Brian, Clay, and Jan also lost a lot of weight. There is other spoiler information out there. Clay was overheard saying that CG would not go to TC again for a while. And it was true this last time, as Steph went. And finally, there is spoiler info out there that Ted, Brian and Shii Ann are the Final Three. I won't say whose spoiler this is, but he apparently used to jump out of perfectly good aircraft while in flight (like I did). So adding all this up, it is not likely that the CG's will be pagonged (booted one-by-one by the stronger tribe) so easily. I hope that was gentle enough. Happy landings. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

bichon 124 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-18-02, 09:55 PM (EST) 16. "RE: FACE TIME" I think we should put individual immunity into the equation. Helen, Brian and Ted are likely to have winning immunity streaks aka Kelly and Colby.   Top

ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-19-02, 00:51 AM (EST) 17. "RE: FACE TIME" Some comments regarding what everyone has posted so far. Clarence boot by own Boran members - This was because they had a 6-4 numerical advantage and pissed off the rest. Unless SJ merge 6-4 and he piss them off real bad, esp towards Ken, he's off straight after they merge. But I remember JP saying that they do not make the same mistakes this time round, so I wonder if SJ will make the same mistakes this time round, but I still dont think Robb makes it jury. Worries about Shii Ann's possible defection - I would say none after Robb's elimination. Steph is gone now and Shii Ann seems to be quite comfortable under Jake's protection. The despondent underdog could well be her that goes far. Weight loss spoilers of CG - If you guys had read my post at the weight loss spoilers are useless thread, I mentioned that with CG having lost their boat, they had little water. Without water, one gets dehydrated easily and loses weight more. Coupled with the lack of food, and the swims to the water source(Swimming is an activity that will result in high weight loss), it only seems natural that CG members lose more weight than their SJ counterparts, SJ having the chickens, bananas, etc The Merge number - I'm inclined to believe that the merge will go 6-4 in favour of SJ and they will boot Robb first for fear that he might win a few ICs and Ken might possibly campaign for his booting because if he gets into final 2, he will not get Robb's vote because of a possible conflict. So Jan is likely to go pre merge. Then they will take out the CG males first, as they think that Helen isn't strong. Paratrooper's pic - Because they did not take out Helen, she could make a possible final 3 appearance with Erin, Penny and Helen. I'm inclined to believe that paratrooper website's pic showed the final 3 in a monk's robe, Erin on the left, Helen in the middle and Penny on the right. Face time - Previous experiences showed that the person who finished in the 3rd position (Rudy, Keith, Lex and Kathy) all had plenty of face time, so maybe Helen is the one who gets the face time after squeezing into the final 3. This coincides with Paratrooper's statement that at least 1 CG makes it to final 3. Of course, this could be Shii Ann who received plenty of face time. I still believe that SJ will pagong the CG once they merge. I agree that the attractive pple like Jake/Ken/Penny/Erin haven't got much face time because they will get plenty of them later. Shii Ann making it far would also mean that she could be the despondent underdog.   Top

Drive My Car 20045 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-19-02, 11:08 AM (EST) 18. "RE: FACE TIME" Paratrooper's pic - Because they did not take out Helen, she could make a possible final 3 appearance with Erin, Penny and Helen. I'm inclined to believe that paratrooper website's pic showed the final 3 in a monk's robe, Erin on the left, Helen in the middle and Penny on the right. There are 5 people in that photo. Unless there is one I haven't seen.   Top

ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-19-02, 12:43 PM (EST) 21. "RE: FACE TIME" The 3 on the left i was referring to, in order Erin, Helen(with hair in bun) and Penny(facial shape) Just guessing though   Top

snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 02:49 PM (EST) 23. "Merck Manual..." "Weight loss spoilers of CG - If you guys had read my post at the weight loss spoilers are useless thread, I mentioned that with CG having lost their boat, they had little water. Without water, one gets dehydrated easily and loses weight more. Coupled with the lack of food, and the swims to the water source(Swimming is an activity that will result in high weight loss), it only seems natural that CG members lose more weight than their SJ counterparts, SJ having the chickens, bananas, etc" Number 1, swimming is NOT an effective weight loss exercise. If you contradict this I strongly suggest you consult the Merck Manual on Nutrition and Exercise. It clearly states in no uncertain terms that swimming, while it does tone the entire body is not condusive to weight loss because air friction requires the body to put out a much greater level of exertion. When swimming the body is treated to bouancy and does not have have to work as hard. In order for swimming to result in weight loss one must swim SEVERAL MILES everyday. Number 2, dehydration is not a factor in significant, long term weight loss. Once said individual is rehydrated weight returns to pre-dehydration levels. Sponge effect. Number 3, food. CG's have food, they just don't have as much food as they are accustomed to and it isn't jumping at their feet with a little EAT ME sign attached. They have to work to get food and can do so, they had those Red Beret dudes show them indigenious food sources on the island. SJ on the other hand were quite literally STARVING. Had they not won the RC they would have really been sucking wind. Some bananas and a few chickens are hardly enough to sustain them to the point where there is no weight loss. SJ does lose weight we just haven't been handed their weight loss spoilers on a platter like CG. "Paratrooper's pic - Because they did not take out Helen, she could make a possible final 3 appearance with Erin, Penny and Helen. I'm inclined to believe that paratrooper website's pic showed the final 3 in a monk's robe, Erin on the left, Helen in the middle and Penny on the right." This picture is bogus and it has already been discussed and rightfully locked here. Snoocharoo   Top

blacknwhitedog 6532 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-19-02, 12:20 PM (EST) 19. "RE: FACE TIME" I'm a newbie, so I probably know nothing, but I've believed in the fire is life theory from the beginning. I'll continue to believe in it as long as Shii Ann sticks around. That said, I think (and probably others have already said) Brian is trying to play the Richard role. I believe he has a secret "to the end" alliance with Helen that we have not seen. Helen is playing the part of Susan. I think that Brian will back-stab her before the end. I also see Ted as playing the part of Rudy and will tag along with Brain to the end. Shii Ann is the narrator of SJ. She is alternately edited as "no one likes her" and "you feel sorry for her". She is very Kathy-like in that regard. The picture of the 5 people in robes reminds me of the part when the are supposed to contemplate their fallen comrades. But doesn't that usually happen when they're down to 3? I have one question: Is the merge supposed to happen this week? Or will their be one more tribal IC? blacknwhitedog It's just a show, I should really just relax...mst3k   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-02, 01:54 PM (EST) 22. "RE: FACE TIME" The merge should happen in episode 7 not episode 6. Early merge is something that potentially could happen, but we now have evidence of another team challenge in the upcoming episode, this would seem to rule out an episode 6 merge. And it isn't just Zoe we should remember, but also Kel. A player can be virtually invisible up to the episode in which he or she gets the boot. Kel had virtually no face time in Outback episode 1 but then took center stage in episode 2. Zoe didn't get the center stage treatment as much, but then she was part of the to-be-Pagonged John's alliance so that her story didn't require as much attention. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

bobstew617 723 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-19-02, 12:21 PM (EST) 20. "RE: FACE TIME" LAST EDITED ON 10-19-02 AT 12:23 PM (EST) This has been an interesting discussion. I agree with others who have suggested Face Time is only one indicator. I think MB just likes to keep us on our toes, and certain situations just fall into MB's hands when it comes editing time (Helen being the swing vote gives her more face time, etc) We finally see more of Ken next week, it appears, because of his argument with the Doood. I don't think that is an argument either way when he gets booted. The best pattern I do see after 4+ Survivors is the Weight Loss theory, which leads me to believe that a number of CG go far. The next few weeks should be telling. That title for Ep 7, "Assumptions" I think might hold a key to how things play out down the road. (edited for a typo-AARRGGH!)   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-21-02, 08:04 PM (EST) 24. "RE: FACE TIME" The "Face Time" theories certainly go against the cw for this season, but I have been wondering why they never show the "SJ4" and the only explanation is that they must last for a while. The whole season so far has been Chewy Gum with a little Robb/Shii spice. Past seasons have had one finalist prominently featured throughout (Rich, Colby, kindofMamaKim, Neleh)and one UTR (KellyW, Tina, Ethantoalesserdegree, Vee). So either Shii or one of the Chewies is likely to be final two against one of the low-pro SJ4.   Top

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