|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
"Episode 7 Title "Assumptions""
|
katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
10-15-02, 01:09 PM (EST)
|
3. "RE: Merge" |
>So, what could EPMB do to >rattle these assumptions? The >most obvious one is to >delay the merge. Typically, >it occurs in lieu of >the RC. One way >to mess with their minds >would be to wait until >it's time for IC, and >then spring on everyone the >announcement that there's a merge, >with the challenge now being >for individual immunity. Didn't they do that in Africa, when Teresa and Clarence played rock, paper, scissors, to see who got immunity? (c) 2002 IceCat Originals, Inc. All rights reserved.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
10-25-02, 10:37 AM (EST)
|
30. "Hit nail on head!" |
> >Assumptions could also be related to >the players' assumptions of how >certain people will vote which >might prove unfounded if someone >like Steph or Robb does >or doesn't jump ship (if >they are still around). I think you've nailed it guessitrains. The episode titles have been so uneventful thus far. I think this title is a huge misdirection by MB to make us think there will be no merge, but it's really about questioned loyalty. I'm thinking Clay assumes he's in an alliance with B/T, and finds he's wrong. Or Jan assumes CG will vote together to force a tie post merge, and is wrong. And there's always the Shi Ann thing. It's going to be something like this.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
hearkittykitty 75 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
10-15-02, 08:32 PM (EST)
|
6. "RE: Episode 7 Title "Assumptions"" |
The FAQ on CBS's Survivor Thailand specifically states that the merge occurs halfway through the game.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-15-02, 01:28 PM (EST)
|
4. "Another assumption line" |
Spoiler evidence is suggesting that the next three boots are Shii Ann, Robb, and Stephanie. Therefore, the traditional merge at 10 would be 5 CG, 5 SJ. The assumption could be that the voting goes down strict tribal lines, but that proves not to be the case.There's also speculation that the tribal switch alluded to in this upcoming episode will result in Shii Ann and/or Steph changing buff colors. If one of those is indeed a new CG, there could be the assumption that that person is safe, and that the other 4 original SJ are the target. Based on the spoiler evidence we have seen, that person would go, instead of one of the group of 4. A third assumption...there's mild spoiler suggestion that Jake does not make the jury. And there are some doubters to the Steph goes to loser lodge theory, since the only supporting evidence is a comment from Snewser (although Snewser has turned out to be quite a reliable source). Maybe Jake assumes he's safe, since there are so many individual immunity threats out there and he has a tight alliance, and he in fact is brought down. Just some things to things about as we watch this week's episode and the spoiler evidence that may come out.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
10-16-02, 05:01 PM (EST)
|
11. "Odd theory on Ghandia's stars" |
This went through my head so I thought I'd post it. What if 4 of the people (Brian included) on Ghandia's star list are the people that voted against Ted in the Final 2 assuming Ted possibly makes Final 2 which is very possible with weight loss spoilers and his position in the tribe. Obviously, Ghandia doesn't meet all her stars in Loser Lodge. There are too many left for that too happen. Paratrooper is confident a Sook Jai wins the game, and the other F2 contestant is from Chuy Gan. Ken, Erin, Brian, and Jake?? could be the votes against Ted in the F2 to make them Ghandia's stars. She never listed Jan as a star who supported her against Ted and even voted with her, so I would assume she would have praised her unless possibly she voted for her nemesis to win the game....
|
|
Top |
| |
ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
10-16-02, 01:31 AM (EST)
|
8. "Late Merge?" |
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/10/14/1034561099400.htmlA pretty normal Survivor promo interview/article from Australia, describing how the game goes down... "Ultimately, Survivor works because its fundamentals are sound; the rules simple but ingenious. For the uninitiated, 16 contestants are stranded somewhere exotic and divided into two tribes. They compete in a variety of challenges - sometimes for rewards, sometimes to determine which group has to vote out a member. When there are eight contestants left they merge and compete among themselves. When two remain, the seven contestants eliminated before them decide who wins $US1 million.
Could this be a mistake, something EPM told them, or did the Australian version merge at 8 and they are assuming the US version is the same?
And also... "What we have learned is, to keep things working at their best, it's very important that we keep the people playing the game off-balance," Burnett says.
"If they're predicting how the game goes, it doesn't help the show whatsoever. They need to be feeling uncomfortable, and out of their comfort zone. What makes raw emotional drama is when they cannot predict it." To that end, it seems, anything goes. With each instalment, Burnett rejigs the format slightly, keeping one step ahead of the contestants. The challenges, too, have become more psychologically complex. But can you get people too off-balance? Survivor is not an easy game and in the closing stages of previous instalments contestants have appeared in varying stages of psychological meltdown.
|
|
Top |
| |
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
|
10-16-02, 10:58 AM (EST)
|
10. "RE: Episode 7 Title "Assumptions"" |
The episode titles are usually selected to have multiple meanings. The title is probably refering to the many different assumptions that will be made at that point in the game.It would make sense that the tribe will be making assumptions about the merge, it makes sense that they will be making assumptions about alliances, as well as most every aspect of the game. I think that's just the nature of competing in that environment. And yes, MB will try to throw the survivors for a loop; that's what he lives for! So, we will probably find that most of our assumptions about "Assumptions" are correct... Krautboy
|
|
Top |
| |
Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-20-02, 08:01 PM (EST)
|
12. "RE: Episode 7 Title "Assumptions"" |
First of all, I think that this thread needs to be bumped after Episode 5.This is a good theory that fits well with the CG weight loss spoilers. (mostly speculation here btw) I feel that Robb is very important in this idea. I like the idea of a late merge. All the survivors will expect it. They will all ASSUME that after Episode 6's TC, they will merge and Individual Immunity Challenges will begin. Now we come to Stephanie's Early Show Chat. She says that one of the reasons Jed was voted out so early (as told from her teammates) was because he was an individual immunity threat. So, in Episode 6, there is a fight between Ken and Robb. The whole tribe assumes that it doesn't matter if they boot Robb, because there will be a merge in Episode 7 anyway. So, (here's the luck factor) they end up losing the IC, and send Robb packing. That way, they keep their allince of five together and they don't need Robb's strength anymore. Another factor supporting this is that Ken probably doesn't want Robb on the jury. However, luck is against the loser Sook Jai tribe as they find out there is no merge yet and that they've kicked out a strong member. Due to this assumption they make, the Chewies cream them in the IC and sends them back to Tribal Council. The saddened alliance then votes out spunky Shii Ann. This is the eventual downfall of SJ. They go into the merge at a 5-4 disadvantage and probably get pagonged. This idea correlates pretty well with: 1. The weight loss spoilers of CG. 2. The smokers list 3. Ghandia's "stars" (this is A LOT of speculation, just something fun to play with) Remember the Ghandia quotes and Paratroopers ideas. "The women are going to kick the men's butts" Perhaps Jan and Helen will pick up Erin and Penny and overthrow the men? This could EASILY explain how two CGs and 1 SJ are in the Final 3. What do you think??? Yeah, I know it's a lot of conditional "if" statements, but it is something that I've been considering for awhile. Quotes of the week 1. "You will NOT see my ta-ta's" -Shii Ann 2. "Do they think I'm too controlling?" -Helen (um, yeah) 3. "My two year old (had a tantrum) one time and I whupped its @$$ and put it back to bed." -Clay 4. "I'm putting in an order for a bigger butt in my next life." -Jan (randomly)
|
|
Top |
| |
|
toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
|
10-21-02, 11:48 PM (EST)
|
15. "RE: Episode 7 Title "Assumptions"" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-02 AT 00:05 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-21-02 AT 11:48 PM (EST) That sounds very plausible, as does an even later merge with the smaller jury of 5. These occurences would also explain how Shii Ann lasts a little longer, yet still becomes friends with Ghandia in the LL. ps. if that happens, IMHO, it will be sucky and dull. (but a new twist) pps. Something is wrong with the Aussie promo, because they can't merge at 8 and have 7 players vote, which is what that promo apparently says.
|
|
Top |
| |
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-22-02, 06:59 AM (EST)
|
16. "Where the "Assumptions" are..." |
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-02 AT 02:27 PM (EST)It is with interest and some humor that I have read the posts of this thresd. First, you know what they say about "assuming" anything. It makes an "ass" of "u" and "me". In Airborne School, we were taught something a little stronger: If you ASSUME something, one of your fellow jumpers might end up getting killed. Now to the game: I've seen so many people ASSUME that if the tribes merge at 5-5, the VOTE will be a 5-5 tie, also. Let's not ASSUME that. Some are ASSUMING is that Shii Ann must leave soon, pre-jury, so that she can smoke with Ghandia. There is no need to ASSUME that. Ghandia can learn of Shii Ann's smoking habits at any time. Now here are spoilers that we do have: 1) The episode title of "Assumptions". MB and his crack title team are hoping that we think of this as "Will there be a merge after all?" Of course there will be. It is not an assumption to realize that MB doesn't mess with his game THAT much. Every merge has occurred right on time, and there is no reason to ASSUME he'll make that big a change now. (Oh yes, he'll try to make us THINK it might not happen; might make them wait a couple of days to the IC like he did in S-3, but the merge will occur on time). 2) Ken is one of Ghandia's Stars, while Shii Ann is a Star and a Smoker. GDiva's stuff has been a goldmine so far. But be aware that Ghandia and Shii Ann do NOT have to spend time at Loser Lodge together for Ghandia to KNOW that Shii Ann is a Smoker. 3) Shii Ann and Ghandia apparently did have some common bonding point after the show, and discussed the Internet boards, if my understanding of this spoiler is correct. 4) Shii Ann has been edited as not really liking her tribe (she and Steph given voice-overs at the Swap Offer). Shii Ann has been shown as the "outsider" within the Hut Alliance. 5) Weight loss spoilers show most of CG to be the ones going deep into the game. 6) There has been a pattern in S-2, S-3, and S-4 where everyone puts aside tribal alliances and votes out someone unanimously. In S-2 it was Jerri Manthey. In S-3 it was Mallrat Brandon. In S-4 it was Zzzoe Zzzanadakis. Sooooo, with all this in mind, these are MY "assumptions": a) Robb goes next. He's the despondent one that we hope recovers. Too late, he's too isolated. b) MERGE! Now what? A 5-5 tie? Oops, the ASSUMPTION. But what if Shii Ann, in a cool and desperate bid for survival, votes with the CGs? This means a 6-4 vote! Shii Ann becomes the "star" of this episode, fer sure, and CG takes the numerical advantage. c) Oh, and who DO they vote out? Well, Ken is an individual IC threat, and he needs time with Ghandia to be one of her stars (cleary HE must bond with her in the Lodge, they don't have much other opportunity to meet). So Ken goes. d) So now, the SJ's just HATE Shii Ann. And do the CG's have any real need for her and her abrasive ways? Uh... no. So the masses vote out Shii Ann next, and the pagonging of SJ commences. And if I'm wrong, my assumption will have made an a$$ out of me.
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Devil Advocate 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
10-22-02, 07:12 AM (EST)
|
17. "RE: Where the "Assumptions" are..." |
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-02 AT 07:23 AM (EST)I believe MB enjoys reflecting back on the lessons we have learned throughout the adventure (aka the fallen comrades type rituals) and he really loves when something said in the first episode ends up being a rather prophetic comment. With that in mind, I believe the title of the episode "Assumptions" reflects back on the first impressions almost everyone had when Jan picked her tribe. Remember the following: - Brian's "never judge a book by its cover" - Clay's "diamond in the rough" - the entire Sook Jai tribe assuming they will walk allover the old people - even Robb's comment to Jeff last TC, "c'mon bro" So this is where CG gets the upper hand and SJ members are picked off one at a time (a la Pagong).
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-22-02, 07:18 AM (EST)
|
18. "RE: Where the "Assumptions" are..." |
Good argument, Dawg, but I have one problem>1) The episode title of "Assumptions". > MB and his crack >title team are hoping that >we think of this as >"Will there be a merge >after all?" Of course >there will be. It >is not an assumption to >realize that MB doesn't mess >with his game THAT much. > Every merge has occurred >right on time, and there >is no reason to ASSUME >he'll make that big a >change now. But will he? If anything, MB has done very little to the tribes intentionally. All he did was the lame "picking tribes" at the beginning, and the equally-lame "does anyone want to switch tribes?" stunt. Maybe MB is tired of the typical 7th boot (Gretchen, Jeff V, Clarence, Robfaddah) and wants to leave it as a tribal strategy that week, instead of a "who's the biggest threat?" contest. We'll never know for sure what MB wants to do Quotes of the week 1. "You will NOT see my ta-ta's" -Shii Ann 2. "Do they think I'm too controlling?" -Helen (um, yeah) 3. "My two year old (had a tantrum) one time and I whupped its @$$ and put it back to bed." -Clay 4. "I'm putting in an order for a bigger butt in my next life." -Jan (randomly)
|
|
Top |
| |
|
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-22-02, 08:29 AM (EST)
|
20. "RE: Where the "Assumptions" are..." |
But will he? ... Maybe MB is tired of the typical 7th boot (Gretchen, Jeff V, Clarence, Robfaddah) and wants to leave it as a tribal strategy that week, instead of a "who's the biggest threat?" contest.You're quite right that MB could do anything. And in S-3, they waited and waited and waited and waited to see if there would be a merge at 10 peeps. The players were about ready to decide that there wouldn't be... then they had the IC and a rather quiet announcement of the merge at the same time... Unless there is some spoiler scoop out there that I'm unaware of, I am forced to think that MB isn't going to throw that big a monkey wrench into the works.
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
fivestarwheezy 958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
10-22-02, 07:19 AM (EST)
|
19. "RE: Where the "Assumptions" are..." |
> >Sooooo, with all this in mind, >these are MY "assumptions": >a) Robb goes next. He's >the despondent one that we >hope recovers. Too late, >he's too isolated. >b) MERGE! Now what? >A 5-5 tie? Oops, >the ASSUMPTION. But what >if Shii Ann, in a >cool and desperate bid for >survival, votes with the CGs? > This means a 6-4 >vote! Shii Ann becomes >the "star" of this episode, >fer sure, and CG takes >the numerical advantage. >c) Oh, and who DO they >vote out? Well, Ken >is an individual IC threat, >and he needs time with >Ghandia to be one of >her stars (cleary HE must >bond with her in the >Lodge, they don't have much >other opportunity to meet). >So Ken goes. >d) So now, the SJ's just >HATE Shii Ann. And >do the CG's have any >real need for her and >her abrasive ways? Uh... >no. So the masses >vote out Shii Ann next, >and the pagonging of SJ >commences. > Thank you Dawg! This is one of the few ideas that isn't ridiculously complicated (this has been a fairly straightforward game so far--are we safe to ASSUME that it doesn't suddenly get out of control complicated?) and it makes sense. That's my vote...for today anyway. Wheezer
|
|
Top |
| |
|
ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
10-22-02, 11:46 AM (EST)
|
23. "RE: Where the "Assumptions" are..." |
Good thinking, SDawg! If you look at the E8 title, "sleeping with the enemy," it appears to play right into your scenario, for Shii is now sleeping with the enemy, after joining with the CGs in E7 to vote out one of her own.I, for one, am no longer convinced that Shii does in fact go early. The only reason we all thought she was headed for loser lodge was the GDiva smoker's list. However, Shii appears on both the smoker's list and the stars list. What better way for GDiva to cover her a$$, than to include a player who does extremely well on both lists, thereby simultaneously implying the player is a pre-merge bootee and a "star."? >> d) So now, the SJ's just HATE Shii Ann. And do the CG's have any real need for her and her abrasive ways? Uh... no. So the masses vote out Shii Ann next, and the pagonging of SJ commences. Why would the CGs turn on Shii at this point? She was the reason they were able to surmount the tie vote at the merge. Unless there is some real concern that Shii will "swing both ways," and go back to the Sookies at some point, I think the CGs are more likely to keep her over an alien SJ. Given that Paratrooper has speculated that there is at least one SJ in the final three, why couldn't that be Shii?
|
|
Top |
| |
|
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-22-02, 07:00 PM (EST)
|
25. "Let me clarify..." |
I'd been meaning to post this before, so let me clarify that while I am suggesting a scenario where Shii Ann COULD be booted after Ken, it is not necessarily so that it WILL happen:1) As ulalame says, the LEGITIMATE (*waves at Webby* )spoiler info from Paratrooper is that Shii Ann IS in the Final Three and possibly the winner. I happen to have great respect for Paratrooper's spoilage information. 2) Certainly Shii Ann could win some immunities. 3) The CG's might not try to wax Shii Ann very quickly. Even if Shii Ann tried to swing back to the SJ's, it's still 5-4, and probably another one (Erin is my guess, but Jake is a strong possibility also) will go next. But nobody likes a traitor (Benedict Arnold was hated by the English, even after betraying the Americans), so Shii Ann will be targeted when convenient. Also, there is always the possibility of injury to a CG, then Shii Ann does double back... and it's tied again... so CG will likely nip that in the bud.
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
|
10-23-02, 03:40 PM (EST)
|
28. "RE: Let me clarify..." |
I agree Dawg. I do not thing the CGs will wax Shii as soon as they use her to eliminate Ken (or any other SJ for that matter, ie just in case Ken has the necklace on). They may have an agreement to keep her on as the last SJ member, etc. They may also actually get along with Shii as well. Another benefit of keeping Shii if she helps you break the SJs is that she will be a repetative target for the SJs who remain. They may constantly try to vote her out keeping the CGs free of excess votes, just in case they have anything to do with tie breaks. Shii could also help the CGs to eliminate one of their own, when the time comes. ie shii gets in with some CGs better than others and they use this to both eliminate SJs and position themselves higher in the boot order of their own. Who knows though. All I do know is, if Ken is on the team post-merge I would target him at all costs. Not only is he huge and strong, he has the whole NYPD thing going for him. Later all, D.R.
|
|
Top |
| |
addictedtoSB 46 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
10-22-02, 10:09 PM (EST)
|
26. "RE: Episode 7 Title "Assumptions"" |
from about that on survivorsucks - according to TV Guide Magazine the description for Ep. 7 assumptions reads:The castaways anticipate a merge of the two tribes and new relationships are formed. A seventh contestant is voted off the island. Jeff Probst is the host. I'm trying to think how new relationships could be formed and still keep the tribes (an the audience) guessing as long as possible. I'd like to see ambassadors sent to scope things out and left to hang longer than they anticipated. As long as a couple of days could work with a delayed challenge. Then throwing the ambassadors back with their original teams right before a challenge with not a lot of time to communicate perhaps.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
10-23-02, 05:00 AM (EST)
|
27. "RE: Episode 7 Title "Assumptions"" |
If you guys check the challenge tracker at the official website, you can see that the challenges between competing tribes stop at Episode 6, I think this means a merge at Epi 7, furthermore, "new relationships are formed" tells us alot
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|