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We have all heard that many of the members of Chewy have weight loss spoilers. If you watch you can see that they have all been beaten down and have lost weight. If they all get kicked out now and don't go any further they could still get back to the US and look slimer. Plus most of the members are older so they will be happy to lose some weight and would be more likely to keep the weight off. Helen was actually showing some abs last nite, and Ted looks like a shadow of his former self. If he stays for a few more weeks he would have lost a lot more than 50 pounds. Don't you think?
Does anyone really see a senario where a group from Chewy can rally and become dominant into the end game? I find it hard to believe.
snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
10-11-02, 10:46 AM (EST)
1. "RE: Weight loss spoilers are now useless."
LAST EDITED ON 10-11-02 AT 12:06 PM (EST)
LAST EDITED ON 10-11-02 AT 12:04 PM (EST)
There is hardcore (pun intended)evidence that Brian loses more weight. He's still looking a bit chunky compared to other shots I have seen of him. Weight loss spoilers are not useless quite yet.
Snoocharoo
EDITED TO SAY...
My typing SUCKS and I cannot spell, but really I'm a nice person.
I discussed this issue in another thread a few days ago, about how the Chewwies had much more weight to lose than the S.J.s, so they would of course lose more and faster due to high fat contents.
Also now that the S.J.s have banana's and chicken that could explain why they do not lose so much muscle mass.
So does this mean the Chewies all go out soon?
I doubt it, because Gdiva still needs to smoke with Clay, Shii, and Robb and meet her stars (jed, etc).
So some S.J.s need to exit the game and I think it will happen due to more thrown ICs or a swithch causing them to be in the minority.
So as my graduate nutrition classes tought me, weight loss is relative and based on starting weight, fat content, caloric intake, energy expenditure and lenght of time off of food.
So the weight loss is useful for prediciting early boots, but due to individual variability, we cannot use it as definitive proof of the Final 4, etc. Just that they did not go early.
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
10-11-02, 11:52 AM (EST)
4. "completely disagree"
...the weight loss spoilers are still very much alive. For one, I don't think CG has lost nearly as mich weight as had been claimed pre-show, espiecially Ted. Also, despite the fact that they would want to keep the weight off after they were booted out, it would be nearly impossible to maintain that weight loss once they resumed a normal or even their normal eating habits for the SEVERAL weeks they would be at Loser Lodge at this point.
Expect to see at least a few members of CG make it very deep into the game.
Lets look at it a different way. The weight they have lost thus far has been from starvation. If they go soon and pig out for a day or two, they could then get into a healthy eating life style and work out at LL helping them to lose more weight. Plus most thai food is quite healthy.
Something noone is thought of is the fact that anyone could have gotten sick after leaving the game. I have traveled throughout southeast asia, and I met few people who managed to avoid at least a little time hitting the toilet with a bad case of the runs. So these guys get kicked out, go back to LL, eat like maniacs and then start sh!tting their guts out. And therefore lose more weight.
Those members with weight spoilers, based on GDiva's posts should be safe at least two more episodes. So that is at least another 6 days. Then if J/K/E/P remain a strong aliance they will pick off the chewy's. The chewy's will be safe for a short time, but I think using the Weight loss issues to put Ted or Brian in a final 3 or 2 is no longer valid. I could see Brian going on a Colby like IC run to help out.
Anyway after u starve, u lose plenty of weight and even if they spent the remaining days at LL, they eat 3 meals a day and don't really eat all the time, so overall will still lose weight
You could be onto something with the toilet thing.
Aside from that, their metabolism will be in the toilet after nearly starving for days/weeks. A few bananas and some chickens/eggs are not going to help the SJ to any degree. Barring illness, everything they eat is going to be stored for later. Fat, fat, fat!
I'd also like to add that in my experience all those bananas could be "binding". "Sh!tting their guts out" could be sweet relief.
I agree with Shakes. Ted and Helen don't look any thinner to me at all. Neither did Ghandia for that matter. And Brian and Clay may look like they've lost more weight than they actually have, as a dark beard will make a face appear gaunter.
I agree with your assesment here in that it becomes very import how much time they have to spend at the lodge (pre or post jury) as it is how much weight they loose during the game.
> espiecially Ted
This has always made me believe there are a good number of CG in the end game. Ted would certainly be an early immunity threat target if there were a SJ majority pagong-ing the other team and if he looses close to the reported weightloss I expect he carries most of the other CG's with him.
I have to say I very much disagree with your assessment that weight loss spoilers have lost their value. If you look at past seasons, consistently the only people who have maintained significant weight loss by the time they return from the game are those who stayed late in the game. In S2 we had weight loss spoilers for Rodger, if I recall correctly. I know in S3 there were weight loss spoilers for Big Tom. In S4, we had weight loss spoilers for Kathy, among others. I can't seem to find a handy reference to past season boot sheets that would catalog the past effectiveness of weight loss spoilers (anyone?), but it stands as my experience spoiling this game since S1, that people who still have significant weight loss after they return home to the states were in the game late enough to both lose that much weight, plus they did not have time to re-gain it at loser lodge or as an early jury boot.
We can debate how people gain and lose weight, that thin people have less to lose, that fat people who lose weight in the game will try to keep it off after they get voted out (yeah rite--you've been starving for two weeks, your first thought when you see food again is not going to be, well, that was an effective diet, let's continue it!) etc., but when somebody still has a 35-50 lb. weight loss when they get back from the game, that is a significant tip that they stay late in the game. Spoilers have been wrong before, but usually not the larger amounts of weight lost spoilers.
...and consider yourself lucky that shakestheclown didn't turn the flamethrower on "high fat broil" for this one...
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
14. "Don't forget to weight the weight loss spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-11-02 AT 05:24 PM (EST)
I've always considered the Red Tribe weight loss spoilers to fall into one of 2-3 quality grades:
- Written reports that Ted lost 50+ pounds - GRADE A WEIGHT LOSS INFO
- Written reports that Helen lost 30 pounds - GRADE A WEIGHT LOSS INFO
- Photo of Jan taken for school picture after her return - GRADE B WEIGHT LOSS INFO
- Photo of Brian taken by spoiler stalker while he was trying to sell a used car after the cast was announced - GRADE B WEIGHT LOSS INFO
...and personally I can't remember the source of Clay's weight loss.
My basic idea is that I've always had a higher confidence is actual weight loss numbers that seem to possibly have originated from the survivor themselves. Those are the ones that are as close to facts as possible -- it's not subjective, not open to someone saying "it looks like he lost 20 pounds," and they tend to be reflective of the person's "real time peak loss," not how they happened to look weeks or months after returning Stateside. Given this I have a higher degree of confidence in Ted and Helen going deep into the game versus Brian and Jan.
I think Brian goes deep just based on his well executed behavior, etc. -- but I've always thought that the weight loss attributed to Jan's school photo was somewhat subjective and I wouldn't be surprised to see her leave within the next several Tribal Councils and just miss jury duty.
'Survivor' player's friends confident he can take prize Chuck Cannon Posted on September 19, 2002 A visit with friends of "Survivor Thailand" contestant Clay Jordan leaves you with the impression that the local restaurant owner could wind up winning this year's show.
Jordan, who owns Jordan's Restaurant on U.S. 165 North in Monroe, makes his debut on the popular CBS series tonight.
"I think he'll win the thing," said Rick Thompson, a childhood friend of Jordan's from Lubbock, Texas. "He's a crazed man on a mission."
Thompson said he and Jordan have been friends since they were 11 years old. He said Jordan has the
personality needed to win the $1 million prize.
"The first couple of shows, he'll probably be kind of unassuming," Thompson said. "But I think that eventually, everyone will be pulling for him."
Thompson said he hopes to fly to Monroe and watch the first show of the series with his friend.
"I want to be there with him to watch the first show and see if I can figure out what his plan is," Thompson said. "He's pretty conniving; he can work things around his way and make you think it's your idea."
Janice Whitlock is one of Jordan's local friends. She said Jordan gets along with everyone.
"He's very upbeat, friendly and smiles a lot," said Whitlock. "He's a hoot. I think he's got the personality to go a long way."
Whitlock said being a restaurant owner would probably help Jordan during the series.
"He experienced in meeting and getting along with different types of people," she said. "I don't think his competitors will want to vote him off."
This is the fifth season of the Survivor reality series. The current group of 16 castaways is marooned on Koh Tarutao, an island off the coast of Thailand in the Andaman Sea.
Mark Burnett, the show's executive producer, said the environment is "foreboding" and teeming with pythons and king cobras in its dense jungle.
The former penal colony is also known for its steep limestone cliffs.
Tammy Martin has been a friend of Jordan for 15 years. She said that she's not surprised Jordan was selected for the program.
"If anyone has the courage to do something like this, it's Clay," Martin said. "He's a big kid in a man's body."
Judy Humble, a captain at the Monroe Police Department, has known Jordan for more than 15 years. She said Jordan does not have an enemy.
"He's such a likeable person," she said. "He can win you over in a heartbeat. Those other folks don't have a chance."
Steve Alexander, another childhood friend, said that if he could find odds, he'd bet on his friend's chances of winning.
"I bet he wins it all," said Alexander, who has been friends with Jordan since the fourth grade. "He's lucky like that."
Alexander said that he spoke to his friend last week.
"He lost 32 pounds and grew a beard while he was gone," Alexander said. "I'd guess he probably lasted longer than the first week."
Clay Jordan info -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A fellow EZBoard poster sent me this to send to everyon here, since he doesn't visit the board during the season. He stopped in at Clay's restaurant party last night, and gathered some info for us. Here is the email:
He is awesomely funny. Just like he is on TV. Real nice man who loves giving the fans a good time. While I was waiting to get a few pics with him... I over heard 5 things. Here they are:
1. He lost 35 lbs. while there. 2. He said, (now I only heard bits and pieces so not exact quote) "You are there aaround day 10 and you are tired already. Day 15 comes and you are like, this is crazy... how much lobger do we have. Then day 20 is like, man, it is only the half-way point" 3. He said, "The challenges stayed pretty consistently hard up until the end" 4. He said, "Dont be surprised if you dont see us at TC for awhile, since Ghandia left" 5. He told me personally, "Now you keep rooting for me up there at school. You will be surprised how far this man from Louisiana goes."
It was my first experience meeting a Survivor. It was very surreal... didnt seem real. He walked in and the first thing he said was, "I'm not in New York!" -lol- He would stand and mingle while the show was on. He would take bows after he had confessionals (espically the ones about Ghandia-- who she said was 10 times the b**** that she was portrayed to be on TV). I still can't believe I was there. I should have this few pics developed by mid-week, next week. Hope some of these spoilers help.
35 lbs, goes far, consistently hard challenges, made it to at least Day 20. Maybe we shouldn't count him out for the long term. -------------------- CHAOS!
Thanks for sharing this info with your friends here at SBlows. Don't post too much else where, but have always valued your opinions. Looks to be some very useful information...
Hope you stop by again sometime and stay longer...
I don't know.. I for one.. think the weight loss spoilers are useless at this point (Yes, I'm going with the minority.) Brian looked pretty thin at times during yesterday's episode.. and Ted... it's hard to tell.. he may still look fat, but he was really chunky to begin with.. so he may have lost a lot of weight.. but it being less obvious on camera.
And of course we have to take into consideration a scenario where Chuay Gahn amazingly can keep their numbers at 5 all the way to the merge, and then somehow force a tie.. while at the same time keeping Jan with them. Things look good for Sook Jai.. they just need one more IC win to make it 7-4, then deliberately lose a challenge to kick off Stephanie to make it 6-4 and dominate the rest of the game.
And more importantly, FACE TIME- something MB really plays with. Penny, Erin, Ken and Jake have had nearly no face time, while everyone.. even Jan has had a substantial amount of face time in Chuay Gahn. Sounds like the Sook Jai 4 (or 5) will make it far.. otherwise.. they'll just be characters with no stories.
Here we are on our fifth version of the show and once again, many are prepared to ditch weight loss spoilers, or factual information, in favor of speculation on the game's outcome based on editting.
As the game stands now, CG is at a serious disadvantage. It is difficult to envision an outcome that has 4, or even all 5, going to the end. Except this is what the weight loss spoilers lead one to conclude. Since this contradicts a logical outcome based on Day 12 information in the minds of many, the "facts" are discarded or rationalized or explained away to suit a desired or expected outcome.
If we've learned anything over the years, it is to trust the documented weight loss spoilers. Discard the facts at your own peril. The CG5 still have a ways to go. IMHO.
One question. How much weight does it look like Ghandia lost?
Sounds like a new "Munson's Law" to me. and I'll be the first to apply it...weight loss spoilers, when documented and significant (25lbs or more) have been a consistently reliable indicator of contestants that make it to the merge. Beyond that they start to break down...but it's looking like whoever ends up on the Sook Jai tribe this week is in trouble.
Unfortunately, my friend, I cannot take credit for this observation. It's been stated many times over the course of several Survivors by spoilers much more capable than I.
Plus, I remember how the other "Laws" collapsed during S4. Ugh!
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
10-12-02, 10:23 AM (EST)
23. "RE: I, too, disagree"
>If we've learned anything over the >years, it is to trust >the documented weight loss spoilers. > Discard the facts at >your own peril. The >CG5 still have a ways >to go. IMHO.
...just wanted to throw my hat into the ring of support for weight loss spoilers. After 4 seasons of Survivor if there is ONE thing that us spoilers have learned it is that documented weight loss spoilers are FAR AND AWAY the most reliable and valuable form of spoiling. Anybody who discounts weight loss spoilers or tries to discredit their value with OVER HALF of the game remaining is, plain and simple, an idiot.
That's all that really needs to be said on the matter.
While I don't think the other weight loss spoilers can be discarded yet, I do think the Erin weight loss spoiler has been satisfied. Not that she might not be in the game for awhile longer, but her weight loss spoiler was entirely within the game (rather than about her condition upon returning home). She may thin out some more (except in the silicone region), but she has already satisfied the criteria in my opinion.
Well, I guess most people here believe in the weight loss spoiler. So we shall see who is right. If by the end, most of those left are from Chewy, than you have been correct. If most at the end are Sook Jai, then I was right.
I noticed that first Shakes the Clown responded in a civilized manner to my initial post, but after someone pointed out that I was lucky to not get flamed by him, he came back and called me an idiot. What a kind fellow.
I guess we cannot have opinions that do not coincide with the Great Clown. But I guess some of us get off on being mean to people with the mask of anonymity. Peace and Love.
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
10-12-02, 01:48 PM (EST)
25. "Coming soon to a store near you"
>I guess we cannot have opinions >that do not coincide with >the Great Clown. But >I guess some of us >get off on being mean >to people with the mask >of anonymity.
The Mask of Anonymity
..make sure to get yours before the last minute Halloween rush.
I noticed that first Shakes the Clown responded in a civilized manner to my initial post, but after someone pointed out that I was lucky to not get flamed by him, he came back and called me an idiot. What a kind fellow.
Uh, Smoke...
I am by NO means any friend of shakestheclown. However, if you think that his last message is a "flame", then you have very little concept of the meaning of the word. However, keep it up and I am sure that he'll make the effort to fire up just one of the twin jets, just to define the term for you.
Have a nice day.
"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
I actually kinda agree with your comments. I think the SJ pple have been given too little face time. In fact, there has been practically nothing about them playing the game, or discussing alliances. In CG, it's pretty obvious actually and they have been given lotsa face time... So we'll see about that...
VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-14-02, 11:41 AM (EST)
29. "RE: Weight loss spoilers are now useless."
Let's rephrase the title and there can be a happy medium.
Weight loss spoilers are useful to a point. There is a certain time frame during Survivor that at that point(which you can't really put a definite time frame on), the weight loss spoilers are not as useful anymore but they are surely useful up until that point and DOWNRIGHT VALUABLE in the first couple of shows. Weight loss is a HUGE clue early on.
Before the show aired or right at first episode, we got to see Clay, Brian with pics of the beard growth and looking noticeably thinner. That was extremely useful to us. However, I do believe that a certain point in time, you kind of "bottom out" with the weight loss, meaning that at some point you are just looking skinny and you can't determine if that is from Episode 6 or Episode 9, you are just looking thin such as Clay and Brian examples but they certainly helped us in determining they were NOT early boots and that is where the weight spoilers, IMO are valuable. So those reports of Helen and Ted have already met their value! We know they played out already b/c both are still there. As far as I was concerned at Episode 2, I thought Helen's days were numbered and clearly that didn't happen. With her weight loss spoiler that enlisted me into believing that despite the appearance that she may be booted, she gets to stay and guess what, she did!
Chen wanted Stephanie to dish a little dirt on the behind the scenes action. Was there any hanky-panky on the island?
"No, not even really rumors," Stephanie answered. "You have no idea -- that is like the last thing on your mind. You know, you're starving to death. Like I lost 20 pounds in 15 days and the last thing I was thinking about was hooking up with somebody. You know. And I've been eating grubs and I had grub juice running out of the corners of my mouth. So I'm sure I was really attractive."
To revive this topic again, has anyone considered that a dehydrated person would lose more weight? If Steph could lose 20 pounds at a hydrated SJ camp, what about CG who lost the boat and had to swim out to get water? Swimming exhausts the body and helps to lose weight. Coupled with the fact that CG haven't been drinking much water and eating much food, perhaps they lose weight more? Remember SJ has the chickens, the bananas, and they have water. They have lost weight, but not as much as CG.
I'm still thinking of all the possible reasons that CG members lose weight because i still think SJ will make it to the end cos I don't really think they were edited enough for us to see. I mean, we hardly even know what Penny, Erin and Ken are like. Compared to CG, we already know Ted, Jan, Helen, Clay, Brian. Therefore, I'm still inclined to think SJ will be the dominant tribe post merge
She looked pretty good on The Early Show and had 24 or so days to recover in Thailand before heading home. Now, if someone contracted that mosquito-carried fever post-boot and continued losing weight or not recovering sufficiently from the Survivor roughing it experience, that would certainly throw off an otherwise useful weight loss spoiler (but then these sorts of things have always been possible). But with the bulk of weight loss spoilers concentrated on CG, it seems very likely CG somehow gains the upper hand at the merge.
Damn, that probably means the dreaded purple rock will decide.
But just because the SPOILERS we have are weightloss in regard to CG, does that mean that there are no SJ weight loss FACTS out there?
We know that Erin loses weight, but that she could be perceived as weak and pretty and last a little while.
Do we know ANYTHING AT ALL about Ken, Shii Ann (although I think Shii will die if she gets anyhinner), Penny or Jake? Perhaps because they don't carry as much fat as a group, They were picked for their athleticism, their weight loss wouldn't me so marked. Muscle is better food than fat, will last longer per pound lost, and Remember Sean who didn't look too bad at the end, compared to the General who got much skinnier (because he was carrying a higher % of body fat).
I think that the correlation of CG weight loss is interesting, but I see alternate explanations then that they win.
Also, we are assuming that CG stays together post-merge. I could see Jan getting hip to the math and gathering the SJ girls who had been dodging the vote, for example. Or next episode Clay and helen could realize that Ted and Brian have a final 2 alliance, and therefore make an alliance between themselves, joining with Penny Jake and Shii in a blood pact to be the final 5 at the merge. Brian goes and Ted joins with an overlapping SJ suballiance to vote against Helen, who is telling people what to do.
I, too, hope it doesn't come down to the purple rock in episode 7 deciding which side gains the advantage (and frankly, MB should rethink that one big time, it is actually even more lame than past votes), but it is becoming a likely prospect at this point if CG is going to stay in the game. Alternately, if CG loses another player in ep 6 they would have to pick up a defector at the merge. Robb is a potential defector since he is clueless, but Shii Ann is a potential defector as well since she feels she is a minority among the Sook Jai (but the same would hold true within Chuay Gahn).
I really felt that the purple rock was especially unfair, 3 of them put their hands in together to draw. I think it would be better if there was a bag of 20 rocks, and one of it is purple, they will then take turns to draw, the first one to draw purple gets kicked out.
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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Snoocharoo
ARRRRRRR!!!!
