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"The Switch - Pro and Con"
TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-04-02, 08:18 PM (EST)
 
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"The Switch - Pro and Con" |
I personally suspect that there will be no switch this time. It seems like just the kind of non-event that EPM and Jiffy might tout as "all new". The evidence as I see it.History: S1 and S2, no switch. S3 (Africa, Kokoro) switch in E5. S4 switch in E4. Last week (weeks going from thursday to thursday) there was speculation that this week's title, "Gender Bender" indicated a switch along gender lines. I submit that the Chuay Gahn "split" over Ted/Ghandia is a more likely reason for the title. (And I totally agree with the Clown's photoanalysis on Bungler's thread. The body language leads us to believe the split is not as EPM wants to present it in the previews.) In addition we now have previews of what looks like RC showing intact tribes. And there is certainly enough unpredictable internal strife within each of the tribes to want to maintain that tension. A switch might lessen the dramatic impact rather than increase it. And I can't see any reason that EPM would want to migrate the information learned from the Red Berets to the losing tribe so quickly. Allowing one team to maintain that advantage until the merge, especialy since the losing tribe are being such dorks, makes lots of sense to me. I seriously doubt that he needs to worry about them starving to death quite yet. Now that I have gone on about all of my reasons why there may not be a switch, I'm sure there are lots of reasons you think there may be. For example, Weltek says: "I think our weight loss spoilers coupled with the many food sources of CG lead me to believe the switch brings our loosers club over to the SJ island of little food" 
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-04-02, 08:32 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
If CG had lost another member in episode 3 I would have expected a switch in 4 or 5, but now it becomes a question of what purpose would it serve instead of simply throwing the CG remnant a lifeline. Very well:Gender Bender: Ghandia would have new tribemates to try to influence and entertain with her over-the-top performance. Save Sook Jai: Second-hand Red Beret experience comes to the beach, finishes the shelter, sources up a reasonably decent dinner. (hm, There is a lifeline situation there but it disadvantages Chuay Gahn somewhat.) Need some more info, not enough to go on really. By the way: Does anyone know if the shot of Steffy sleeping by the fire in ep 3 might have been lifted from ep 2, it seemed incongruous to me for some reason.  ARRRRRRR!!!!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-05-02, 05:36 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
Well, for the record, I too think they do have it all mapped out, but there's planning, contingiency planning, and so on is what I think (there's more than one map). Obviously, they could never have planned for Skupin's accident or the flood that hit Camp Barramundi. So, I don't have a problem with the idea that the episode 4 swap in S4 happened because it was mapped on the contingiency plan of what happens if one tribe just keeps losing no matter what. As MB himself said in one of things I read, "Obviously, this is television, we aren't going to let anyone starve to death." Frankly, I prefer the idea that they have some leeway for things, a rigid structure could well be deadly.That said, making it up on the fly is what they do at Fox. ARRRRRRR!!!!
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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-02, 11:54 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
Thanks for posting this Tech. I was thinking the same thing after seeing EP3. What purpose would a split serve. S3 and S4 the switches occured at least at different junctions of the game.I think MB started the show off differently with them picking the members. I don't think he would want them to change, for better or worse, they get what they get. Look how many where so happy to be picked for the "young" team. And how many were sad to be picked by the "old" team. I say that's enough entertainment there. Remember last year people speculated that the teams would split into 3 groups? hrc2u
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-05-02, 00:24 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
he needs to figure a way so sucks does'nt starve. before they lost the net jed said they only caught 2 fish in 9 days. the only thing i see saveing them is a swap. unless mb helps them win chickens.
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-02, 00:48 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
we might like seeing it but like s2 when they traded there camp for rice. the funny thing is there useng squid and clams for bait instead of eating it, unlike the old people anything they find they cook.
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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-05-02, 12:51 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
speaking of rice..do they have rice this yr..i haven't really noticed?
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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-05-02, 01:31 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
ya I know that..I just thought they might have rice this year..bc they are in thailand..and there doesn't seem to be alot to eat.like there was in Marquesas..they should have rice or some kind of staple..and that corn meal in Africa was horible..that is gross
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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-05-02, 01:20 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: The Switch - Pro and Con" |
I mentioned in the Dummy thread that the switches were obviously instituted to avoid future pagongings. Once it worked (S4) and once it didn't (S3). (The convenient Coconut Challenge in S4 sure didn't hurt.) But that's better odds than the times there was no switch (S1 & 2). It was too predictable that if a strong alliance had a majority after merge, it was all over.Does MB really want to take that risk? It would turn a pretty hideous installment of the series into the all-time worst. We as viewers and spoliers keep expecting new and fresh, which I am sure gets tough. If MB has decided the whole switch concept is getting old, we might see a new wrinkle, like a late merge (which, IMO, would only delay the inevitablity of a pagonging for a few episodes). I also like the idea that the switch could be gender based, which is at least a bit new, but I think this is being shoved down our throats, so I am wary. I just don't see a reversion to S1 or S2 standard merge. I personally would be really disappointed, unless a lot of flip flopping takes place at the end and this is the most exciting survivor ever (but I ain't holding my breath).
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-05-02, 06:51 PM (EST)
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15. ""The Ocean's Surprise" is the switch..." |
Technoir, good thread.I’m in the camp that thinks there will, once again be a switch and it will take place in EP5. The switch/swap has made the game more interesting and less predictable, and MB rarely changes things that still work. I do, however, believe that the swap/switch mechanism will be new and improved, packaged as "The Ocean's Surprise." So, assuming a switch/swap occurs, when does it happen? I agree with Munson, that the “Gender Bender” in EP4 refers to the men vs. women storyline that is being promoted in the previews and that “The Ocean’s Surprise” is how the new tribes are split up during EP5. Remember the “Winds Twist” episode from S4 when the tribes were reconfigured. In S5 the Wind is replaced by the Ocean and the Twist is replaced by the Surprise. I would guess that whoever is edited as being in the greatest danger of being booted during Ep4 benefits from the switch…could this be the “male contestant who becomes despondent” and later an “underdog that the audience roots for”?
Krautboy
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-02, 05:58 PM (EST)
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18. "My $0.02" |
At the risk of repeating a lot of what has been said, I'll get my full pennies' worth here.I at first believed that the switch would occur, and in Ep.5... however, I'm leaning towards no switch right now. The question in my mind is "Does MB *think* he got good value out of it?" Let's examine history:
S1 - Dicque figures out the strategy to win Survivor, and a new verb is introduced to the lexicon, "to pagong". S2 - The Ogakor and Kucha alliances were so strong that, arugably, Roger and Lis wouldn't even attempt to ally with Amber to break up the C/T/K alliance. And all voting from the merge to the end were pretty much on tribal lines. MB wanted to change this, so... S3 - With tribes even at 6-6, MB instituted (with planning ahead of time, I believe) an even swap. However, while MB accomplished the goal of breaking up the mallrats (I know some of you liked them, but if they'd ruled the post-merge roost, I strongly believe and contend that ratings would have plummeted), he did NOT accomplish his goal of diminishing tribal alliances, as they remained fairly intact. S4 - MB goes one Ep. earlier, and more randomly, to swap the tribes. This was clearly planned in advance. The problems were that Rotu had an 8-5 numerical superiorty (which was not readjusted to 7-6), and Maraamu was actually weakened (badly) by the swap, so badly that MB had to resort to the SOS challenge and hiding some statue pieces from Rotu to keep it from being total annihilation. Did the swap work? Yes and no. It did a lot to divide Rotu and garner some tensions, and therefore TV ratings; however, it finished off Maraamu, tribal loyalties stayed in place (Kathy voting off Gina instead of Paschal or Neleh, Sean/Rob/Vecepia stayed true to themselves and the Rotu4 stayed true to themselves), Sarah was (IMHO unfairly) deprived of her alliance and booted, and, again IMHO, damaged the game. IMHO, Paschal, Kathy and Neleh saved the game's popularity by switching sides and abandoning the Rotu4, saving Sean and Vecepia. But that might have happened ANYWAY! S5 - So does MB want or need to do the swap? Issues for: MB may have done the original tribe selection with the full knowledge that things would be changed in a swap a few days down the road. The swap does add to confusion among the players' strategies and helps stop tribal loyalties from overriding the game. Issues against: There is plenty of tension right now. The tribes are EXPECTING a swap now, and are likely planning and strategizing for it among their internal alliances. Now we look at the WEIGHT LOSS spoilers: Ted, Clay, Brian, Helen, Jan, and Erin have weight loss spoilers. Ken has some spoilers to suggest he stays around. Now unless we have a swap and most of the people end back up on their original tribes, it seems to me that the CG alliance remains intact deep into the game. This leaves Robb, Stephanie, Shii Ann, Penny, Jake, and Ghandia. Things suggest that Robb, Stephanie and Ghandia are in Loser Lodge. From the smoker list, Shii Ann may join them. I suspect Penny and Jake as jury members. If there is a swap, it HAS to be in such a way as to CONTINUE to isolate Robb and/or Stephanie and/or Ghandia (yes, one of them is gone in Ep.4). I do NOT believe the title "The Ocean's Surprise" has anything to do with a swap. I believe "The Winds Break".. er I mean "The Winds Shift" referred more to Rotu developing cracks in their harmony. I think "The Ocean's Surprise" is going to be something of value to that episode, but not of real value to the game... or perhaps a typhoon is going to come in... See what y'all can make of this, and feel free to add to it or debate it. 
27-25Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-06-02, 06:54 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: My $0.02" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-06-02 AT 07:04 PM (EST)Dawg,
what a great coherent cost/benefit analysis of the history of the swap! I am so happy you wrote this because I started trying to write it out late last night and couldn't make my post orderly, so I erased it. The only part where I am of two minds is that the Episode title of Surprise could well mean a swap. The S4 episode was The Winds Twist, and with all the weather discussion that went on, in the end it was no more than a swap. I agree that the biggest argument against a swap is that the CG5 appear to go far. Boran swapped its members and reunited in Ep 5 so there's a precedent. However, Old Boran inherited 2 dissidents, making the Silas boot a snap, and the tie vote/previous vote rule that no longer applies preserved the New Boran. I agree with you that the swap when tribes were uneven was inherently unfair to the smaller tribe--despite the fact that Vee won the game. So how might there be a swap?
Well, SJ could go to TC in Ep 4 and we could have an even swap, and Ghandia could end up being the only CG casualty. I've been arguing that CG will boot Ghandia in Ep 4, leaving the tribes 5-7, but keeping an open mind, an even tribe division could certainly make for a fair swap similar to S5. Another random swap? Well, I hated it and I hate to think it could happen again; let's leave that for last. Possible swap scenarios:
I. Even swap (6-6) of 3 from each tribe.
Problem #1. Chances are good you get a purple rock scenario, and audience reaction to that was POOR, last season. Based on that, I don't see why EPM would choose this option. II. Uneven (5-7) Random swap.
this means Ghandia is gone in Ep 4 because CG lost.
Red's 5 members will be a minority on one or more likely both sides. Yet all 5 remaining members have major weight loss spoilers. The only possible scenario I see that would allow that to happen:
1) on the new 5 member tribe, CG either avoids a TC for 2 Eps or
2)dominates in numbers and happens to get Robb, Shii Ann, and/or Stephanie on their team as cannon fodder (necessary to fit our spoilers). AND 3) on the new SJ, SJ pulls a Rotu and boots one of their own, ignoring the imported CG, which is possible if they have numerical superiority, plus the current majority alliance stays in the majority (although they could probably garner a vote against their choice from any CG player). This scenario requires that at least one of their current targets remains in SJ;
OR
4) SJ doesn't go back to TC for the Eps 5 or 6, and the Red tribe pagongs two purple orphans. III. Random Swap at 6-6:
Ghandia still ends up getting booted in Ep 5 or 6. However, I feel that she needs to be booted by her own tribe members to fully account for her anger after the show. In the scenario where tribe members are at even numbers two episodes from the merge, it seems unlikely that either tribe will boot one of its own and leave themselves in a minority at the merge. In the particular game that we have, with both tribes facing internal divisions, it seems that a swap at 6-6 would mostly serve to bring them back into strict tribal alignment for self-preservation, and that if MB wants fluidity in the later alliances, such a swap would be counter-productive.
I would welcome hearing any scenarios I left out. I didn't take the time to map out every possibility, but my conclusion is that a lot of different random factors have to come together for NONE of the CG 5 with weight loss to become a casualty of the swap. Seems against the odds of a random switch to me. First Krautboy convinced me; now Dawg has swayed be back to favor no swap. Sigh. 
"Indecision may or may not be my problem"
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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10-06-02, 08:10 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: My $0.02" |
OFG, so many scenarios, so little information.If there is a swap, and I think there will be one in E5, the second of your scenarios is to me the most likely. This, of course, assumes a Ghandia boot in E4. Not that much of a stretch but no sure thing either. This is copied from my post in SDawg's "Ghandia's friends" thread but is relevant here as well. Just another in a long list of possiblilites, all speculation at this point. Chewies down to 5, Suckies at 7. Who gets switched? Why, Shii Ann and Robb, that's who. The three original Chewies (it really doesn't matter who) have a majority and decide to throw the next two IC's, per the Jiffy interview quotes, and accomplishes two things: They can eliminate the former Suckies (Robb and Shii, in that order) and protect their fellow Chewies who are now in the Suck tribe and at a significant disadvantage. Merge at even strength. This way, SJ never needs to turn on one of their own. Hmmm, sounds like I'm trying to dream up a scenario to support a favored outcome instead of letting the facts lead me to a logical conclusion. Yep, that sounds like my typical MO and helps explain my misguided picks every week. In any event, next week's preview and the detailed episode description should provide additional insight into the "Surprise" in E5.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-02, 07:18 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: My $0.02" |
OFG, my only point of disagreement with you:Problem #1. Chances are good you get a purple rock scenario, and audience reaction to that was POOR, last season. Based on that, I don't see why EPM would choose this option.
I'm not assuming that Purple Rocks *ARE* the method of tie-breaking this year. As you said, it was received poorly, and Paschal REALLY got the shaft on that one. I suspect (and hope) that MB has discarded his little bag of rocks. I still think y'all are ascribing too much to the S4 titles, but that's not worth arguing about. 
27-25Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-07-02, 12:14 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: My $0.02" |
OFG, Dawg, Sleeve, munson and others this has been a great post. I too have been trying to mull whether or not there will be a swap, and I'm currently in the "No Swap" camp. My reasons can best be summarized below.Our current spoilers indicate that... 1) Ghandia, Robb, and Shii Ann have to go before the jury. Snewser indicates that Steph is likely to go before the jury as well. While many people are putting new stock in this spoiler, I tend to give it some credence. 2) 5 Chewies (other than Ghandia) go far. Very far. Ghandia has strong enmity toward at least a couple of them and none as far as we can tell to any Sookies. For this to work, Ghandia has to get booted principally by her own tribe. If there is a swap, this means she almost has to go in E4. Now it is possible that Chewie could go in down 7-5 and still pull a miracle, but that would almost have to entail one tribe with a 3-2 Chewie advantage and the other with a 5-2 Sookie, with the two switched people including Robb and Shii Ann (or possibly Steph). I admit this is possible. But if there's no swap, who are the most likely Sookie boots. THE SAME PEOPLE. The chances of the split I have described is about 1/4 (actually it's 26.1%). The chance of the switch including both Robb and Shii Ann is 2.61%. Is it possible? Sure. But we already have plenty of scenarios that would lead these people to get the boot without a switch. Indeed, I think you could make a convincing argument that Ghandia doesn't go until E7 because Chewie makes a heroic comeback, causing the Sookies to jettison the 3 people furthest from the core alliance before the merge. Then Chewie, up 6-4 at the merge jettisons the person none of them can stand to make darn sure she's not on the jury before pagoning the Sookies and still making up most or all of the Final 5. That last part is all spec. What isn't is that the current obvious boot candidates fit in with spoilers. Both the E3 and E4 switches led to immediate non-obvious boots of members of majority alliances (Silas and Sarah). We have no inkling of that happening here. I am leaning toward no swap in E5.
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-06-02, 08:22 PM (EST)
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23. "Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-06-02 AT 08:24 PM (EST)>IMHO,
>Paschal, Kathy and Neleh saved
>the game's popularity by switching
>sides and abandoning the Rotu4,
>saving Sean and Vecepia.
>But that might have happened
>ANYWAY! I must disagree with you there... The act of Kathy, Paschal, and Neleh allying with Vee was instrumental in keeping the show interesting, and if Kathy had won, I really think that it would have been the best of the four Survivor series. However, you claim that would have happened anyway??? I sincerely doubt it!... Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal were left out of the Rotu-4 alliance as a result of the switch. Without that swap, the Rotu alliance would have likely been structured differently (Kathy would have been gone first, but do you really think that Gabe, Paschal, and Neleh would have been next by coincidence????) The swap worked perfectly last season. It broke up the Sarah/Rob/Sean/Vee alliance, and also forced smaller, more fluid alliances to dominate the game. This ultimately resulted in a game of surprise (if there had been large, rock-solid alliances, Kathy never would have been able to strike a deal with Vee, who, in turn, would have been unable to strike a deal with Neleh). The goal of the swap is to encourage small fluid alliances of 2-3 people working together to save each other at any cost, thus resulting in larger, but unconsistent alliances (making the game much less predictable). Yeah... we knew that Paschal and Neleh would never betry each other, but we had no clue how the final game play would go down with Kathy and Vee in the mix. So how can we rationalize a swap in the upcoming episodes??? Well here's a wild guess:
E4: GDiva is voted out unanimously by her tribe in an obvious boot... necessary to produce hatred that we've heard about. The obvious outcome is clouded only by a "gender alliance" created in the editing room with bits of unrelated conversations strung together (sound familiar???) Meanwhile, Shii Ann is confident in her position in her tribe... they have crushed the outlying lazy group, Robb falls into line, and Steph is the isolated obvious boot for the next episode. E5: SWAP!!! Shii Ann, who was confident last episode finds herself in the minority after the swap, her up-front semi-confrontational attitude paints a large target on her back, and she is removed from the game when her new tribe loses immunity (Note: She would fall into the minority if she was in a tribe with any four CG's or with 3 CG's AND Steph, so this is a very real possibility) E6: Robb's attitude doesn't go over well with his new tribe. He is eliminated, having made few friends in SJ, and no friends in CG. (It is possible that Shii and Robb could be in the reverse order, but MB likes showing the irony of the swap destroying a strong alliance, and I have a hard time imagining him painting Robb as being in a strong alliance.) E7: MERGE!!! Old CG has taken advantage of the various in-fighting in the other tribe. The merge occurs at 5-5, but outcast Stephanie recieves no support from her own tribe, and may even choose to try to ally with th CGs. She is voted out, as no one is willing to vote with her, giving the CG-Five the majority AND validating all weight-loss spoilers to date. Without the merge, I have a hard time getting Shii-Ann voted off to validate GDiva's smoker's list, which I have faith in. Okay, now let's talk mechanism of swap. I actually see a third possibility... The problem with S3's swap was that the new tribes were too even, and it resulted in one betrayal, one tie-vote (with previous votes breaking the tie), and one tribe came out dominant. So for S4, MB attempted to fix this by doing a random, uneven (MUST be, if this is pre-planned, and there are only 3 people voted off) swap, to encourage new alliances (hey... if you're suddenly in a losing position, it's time to bargain for your life!!!)... However, this resulted in an unexpectedly weak tribe, which made for bad television (and obviously rigged challenges). So it's time to combine elements that worked from each... There will still be a random swap, to encourage new alliances, but why should the tribes be uneven??? Instead, why not form 2 new tribes of six... this DEFINATELY encourages new alliances, because it's like starting from square one... each tribe has an equal advantage in the challenges, and no one wants to risk being voted out. It also makes for an interesting merge, because we have old tribe alliances and new tribe alliances to sort out (which was the whole point of the swap in the first place). Summary: For the short of attention span... - Swap is likely, because it has worked in the past.
- Swap could still produce the results that we expect from GDiva spoilers (results that may be difficult to reproduce without a swap).
- Swap may have a new format, involving random redivision into two tribes of six, regardless of profile of original tribes
You never know what might be up my sleeeve...
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-02, 07:36 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: *sigh* TY" |
dabo,
I'm also taking the Steph "Loser Lodge" spoiler info with a grain of salt, but I think we can surmise that she's a pre-jury boot, by the following analysis:There is info that these people stay late:
Ted
Clay
Brian
Helen
Jan
Erin
Ken There is info (mostly Ghandia stuff) that these people go soon (leaving Steph out of the list for just a moment):
Ghandia
Shii Ann
Robb This leaves Steph, Penny and Jake. Right now, 9 of these people will be Jury/Finalists, leaving four for Loser Lodge. I don't think anyone will argue that Ghandia and Robb are headed for the Lodge. So two slots need to be filled. If no swap: Penny and Jake have a strong alliance that should get them into the merge, and likely on the jury. Ergo, Stephanie and Shii Ann are the outcasts. If a swap: Shii Ann's style will get her in trouble. Again, the influences of "old" SJs could sway against Stephanie, and the new tribe(s) will need an obvious target, a'la Silas in S-III. So Stephanie appears to be out again. Some other, general thoughts:
I don't agree with sleeeve about the swap working "perfectly" in S-4, but his possibilities for S-5 are good. I was looking for every reason in the world NOT to consider Ghandia for booting, because it SEEMS so obvious, but by all this process of elimination, it's getting hard to avoid her.
27-25Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-07-02, 00:44 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-02 AT 01:52 AM (EST)>Wow..you summed up a perfect storyline..lol..but
>I have to disagree with
>you in one area.. Don't miss the entire point of my post, which is that a swap is both probable and likely... (My scenario was just to illustrate that it is not impossible, as some have argued, for there to be a swap and still have Ghandia, Shii, Robb, and Steph be the final four pre-jury boots.) That said... >why would the CG's
>target..weak Shii over any other
>stronger Sookie I have no idea, and I gave up trying to rationalize Survivor strategy after S3... in S2, nearly all of my posts had to do with what Colby and Tina thought would be best for them, and how that would affect the group. I honestly believe that their duo was the last pair of Survivors to think strategically, so I've simply given up that type of spoiling (which has, sadly, reduced my presence in the arena of Survivor spoiling greatly)... So the real question is not why would anyone target Shii Ann, but why do I think that Shii Ann will be booted in the fifth episode?... Well all of the arguments that I made in this post have been restated and expanded in a thread by Krautboy, here. When we look at MB's editing style, Ghandia is the only logical boot for next week, because hers is the only sensible boot in question (to the average viewer)... Meanwhile, Shii Ann has been portrayed as a manipulator (remember is was in HER confessional that we learned that SJ planned to throw immunity)... thus, of our three top suspects (Robb, Shii, and Steph, thanks to available spoilers) Shii is the most likely boot for E5 if there is a switch. Look for Shii to have confessionals where she is confident in her position in the tribe in E4... These should set off warning bells that things will be shaken up!
You never know what might be up my sleeeve...
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hearkittykitty 75 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-07-02, 10:35 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
Didn't we first learn of the intent to throw the challenge from Erin's "there's a few people we want to get rid of" confessional? Shii Ann confirmed it. Of course - this could indicate that Erin is more "in" with the alliance than Shii Ann - since she announced the intent first.
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-07-02, 10:59 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
You're right... Erin was the first to mention throwing the challenge, but Shii had more camera time concerning it (both before and after the challenge was thrown).Couple that with Jed's shock at being voted out in place of Shii, and it's clear that Shii is being edited to appear in a much stronger position than she really is. There must be a reason for this! MB has shown us no reason why her tribe might vote her out soon, yet we know that she is not as well-liked as she is portrayed. (If she was going to be voted out by her own tribe, they would have started to lay the groundwork for that boot with at least one interview when she recieved votes in the last episode.) The bottom line is that we must assume that there is a reason that Shii is being edited as safe and in control to the average viewer, while we, as spoilers, are aware that she will most likely be voted out soon (even if there is no swap!!!)... my assertion is that she makes the most logical post-swap boot, based soley on the editing, and what we know of MB's sense of irony.
You never know what might be up my sleeeve...
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-02, 11:54 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
There must be a reason for this! MB has shown us no reason why her tribe might vote her out soon, yet we know that she is not as well-liked as she is portrayed. Once again, The Clown Rule: MB *never* shows a winning strategy until he absolutely has to. Clearly, Jake and (especially) Penny, virtually unseen so far, have something going that MB is not showing. Are they controlling an alliance of five?: J/P/Ken/Erin... and Shii Ann is their "fifth"... for now. Shii Ann, however, already has had one mix-up with Robb in Ep. 1. And here's something else for you: JP virtually refused to talk about Shii Ann in any interview. He virtually always led the conversation to someone else, especially Ken. Could it be that something major (like a rule violation) happens with Shii Ann, getting her taken out (as opposed to voted out)?
27-25Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-02, 01:04 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
What do you think of the possibilities of Shii Ann going episode 4 and Ghandia going Episode 5? (or for that matter, Robb?)Is there some reason these couldn't be flipped, and still have everything else play out as you posted above? The way things have been edited, a left field boot of Shii in ep 4 doesn't seem as too remote a possibility to me. According to previews CG target-Ghandia (with the gender misdirection to make her appear to have a chance) SJ target- Stephanie. From the web promo at least, Steph looks like the biggest SJ target for ep. 4. Robb is completely UTR in both promos. Shii, while not the target, is the one that points out that Steph IS the target. I have eliminated Steph as a possibility this week. Robb must have some connection with the SJ voting majority, because he felt comfortable enough to approach Ken with his plan to vote out Shii Ann. Ken did give Robb his reasons to boot Jed, but his comments regarding Shii Ann were NOT shown. The tribes thoughts on Shii, except for Robb and Steph, have been completely hidden so far. Both Robb and Jed believed that a "majority" of the tribe would vote Shii Ann off. Robb said so in confessional, and Jed said so in post boot interviews. Did Robb/Steph/Jed pick Shii Ann to vote for because she was their biggest threat? Probably not. My guess is that they picked her because, having NO allies, she was an easy target. And for the life of me, I can't understand (from what we've been shown) why Jed went instead of Robb last week, unless he has some other friends in the tribe. >>There must be a reason for this! MB has shown us no reason why her tribe might vote her out soon, yet we know that she is not as well-liked as she is portrayed. (If she was going to be voted out by her own tribe, they would have started to lay the groundwork for that boot with at least one interview when she recieved votes in the last episode.) I agree with you here. In episode 2 Jed was described as freaking lazy. Then he was pretty much UTR that episode. (as I recall, the lazy focus was on a sick Steph) Besides the votes for Shii in ep. 3, we did have Robb describe her as the "weakest" member of the tribe. Even though she was edited that ep. as clever and in control. Could that be enough of a set up for an episode 4 Shii Ann boot? I'm still leaning toward Ghandia for episode 4 boot. If SJ goes to TC, I expect to see Shii going. Now, if we only knew who was going to win IC this week. ps. I agree completely with your ideas on the switch. I especially like the idea of evening up the tribes.
>>So it's time to combine elements that worked from each... There will still be a random swap, to encourage new alliances, but why should the tribes be uneven??? Instead, why not form 2 new tribes of six... this DEFINATELY encourages new alliances, because it's like starting from square one... each tribe has an equal advantage in the challenges, and no one wants to risk being voted out. It also makes for an interesting merge, because we have old tribe alliances and new tribe alliances to sort out (which was the whole point of the swap in the first place).
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-07-02, 03:41 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
>ps. I agree completely with
>your ideas on the switch. Under the assumption that this means that you agree that a switch will happen, then I think that the answer to this question becomes more clear: What do you think of the possibilities of Shii Ann going episode 4 and Ghandia going Episode 5? (or for that matter, Robb?) Is there some reason these couldn't be flipped, and still have everything else play out as you posted above? I think Ghandia needs to be booted by her own tribe in order for the hatred toward the chef (in addition to Ted) to be as strong as she proclaims in her posts (of course... this is assuming you believe in the GDiva spoilers). If the switch occurs in E5, Ghandia would be more likely to attribute any subsequent boot to the members of the other tribe, bad luck, etc (as we've seen people do in the past). But if she is booted by her own tribe, it will become a matter of "he-said, she-said" in her mind, and she will be outraged at anyone that doesn't "believe" her story about Ted. Remember... we've had obvious boots in the past, but they've always had a question surrounding them. Mother Africa was obvious... but people thought that Brandon's hatred of Frank might influence the vote. Smelly Kimmy was obvious, but once again, people assumed that Alicia might be an alternative, considering that she appeared to be more at-fault from the preview. Patricia was obvious, but the editing produced an imaginary 5-man alliance of which she was a supposed member, so people assumed that she was safe. This time, GDiva is the obvious boot, yet the preview seems to imply that Ted may also be on the chopping block, as people take sides based on gender lines... in a week where there's no way around the obvious, this is the best misdirection that MB can come up with.
You never know what might be up my sleeeve...
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-02, 03:56 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
You make excellent points as usual eee. I think Ghandia needs to be booted by her own tribe in order for the hatred toward the chef (in addition to Ted) to be as strong as she proclaims in her posts (of course... this is assuming you believe in the GDiva spoilers). If the switch occurs in E5, Ghandia would be more likely to attribute any subsequent boot to the members of the other tribe, bad luck, etc (as we've seen people do in the past). But if she is booted by her own tribe, it will become a matter of "he-said, she-said" in her mind, and she will be outraged at anyone that doesn't "believe" her story about Ted. This does make a lot of sense, but what I'm wondering is what if Ghandia survives episode 4 and gets switched episode 5 with say....Ted and the chef. If Ted and the chef were to join the SJ members on the "new" switched tribe and betray her by voting her out, don't you think that same hatred would be there, if not moreso? It may be unlikely, especially because it would make more sense for any CG's switched with Ghandia to stick with her for the sake of numbers, but I don't always think these fools make a lot of strategic sense. I have no idea, and I gave up trying to rationalize Survivor strategy after S3... in S2, nearly all of my posts had to do with what Colby and Tina thought would be best for them, and how that would affect the group. I honestly believe that their duo was the last pair of Survivors to think strategically, so I've simply given up that type of spoiling (which has, sadly, reduced my presence in the arena of Survivor spoiling greatly)... See my point? I'm not trying to argue with your logic, because I have been saying the same things, it's just I have a nagging suspicion about Shii Ann, and am trying to discount it before making any final decisions. Thanks for answering my question, the more discussion the better.
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corcam 374 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-07-02, 01:57 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Disagree: Swap will happen!" |
I agree with Sleeeve here on a point I believe Ep4 the Ghandia vs. Ted dillema will finally adrupt causing Ghandia to be booted (which is sad b/c eventhough Ted did supposively "apologize" it still doesn't make it right and he should be the one on the chopping block... but due to Ghandia acting really immature she did herself in.. anyways back to the topic) After the Ghandia boot eventhough it might be pre-planned the swap will happen.... and MB's luck would have it that the Ghandia and Ted dillema would be wrapping up b/c one of them would be gone and then *BAM* here comes the swap and all hell breaks loose... of course the only way the male alliance at CG would be successfully broken up is to have one of them go to SJ.. (of course there is a thing that I swear MB might have a little leeway in when it might happen which he would use to his advantage after the Ghandia thing ends.... that way he can cause more "drama" right after the other)
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-02, 08:07 AM (EST)
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34. "And one Addendum..." |
One other addendum that I postulated for S-4:MB has TWO audiences: his main core, and the spoiler audience. MB attempts to entertain and surprise his main audience, while misdirecting us, his spoiler audience. With people expecting a swap, it would be a "surprise" NOT to swap them. It would also be entertaining to swap them according to gold/silver torches. It definitely messes with our spoiler heads though, as you can see the time and bandwidth being used to debate this issue. P.S. I'm not saying ABSOLUTELY that there will be no swap (and some of you, IMHO, seem to be thinking that I'm saying that). I'm just inclined against it right now. There is still plenty of reasons why, and evidence that, a swap can and will occur.
27-25Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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