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"SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 06:01 PM (EST)
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"SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "

===========================================
NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS
VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
===========================================

OK, I had a really nice, long, detailed post just about all done when my laptop crashed and now is now crashing again and again when trying to reboot (this should be another fun problem to deal with), so it's looks like this re-write is going to be short.

Basically, due to everyone else in RED TRIBE having weight loss spoilers, it seems pretty clear at this point that if RED TRIBE goes back to Tribal Council again, then Ghandia is going. Based on tribe dynamics, it also seems likely that PURPLE's first boot will be either Jeb, Robb, or Stephanie. Before my laptop crashed into the Land Of Blue Screen Death, I had a nice full list of reasons saying why I didn't think RED TRIBE was going to lose a third straight immunity challenge, but unfortunately I don't have time to redo them. The bottom line is that there seems to be every reason to believe that RED TRIBE wins immunity. To get a feel some the ideas though, you can read HERE or HERE -- two excellent resources.

So, given that PURPLE TRIBE goes to Council, Stephanie seems the logical boot for multiple reasons -- she's sick, she lazy, she's an outsider, both Rob and Jeb are stronger, etc. Therefore STEPHANIE is the bootee prediction. Of course, I still elieve that if RED TRIBE goes to TC that Ghandia is the logical boot, so we'll go with GHANDIA as our alternate.

As far as the Reward Challenge goes, this one is more of a question mark, but given Robb's quote clip as well as the fact that I just find it hard to believe that even Mark Burnett would let Robb choke another player with consequences, it's difficult to see PURPLE TRIBE winning this challenge -- this might seem strange for a tribe that's yet to win a single challenge, but that seems to be the most logical thought -- hard as it might seem to believe, RED TRIBE also wins the Reward Challenge.

Sorry there aren't more details here and for the lateness of the posting, but I need to work on getting this laptop back up ASAP.

-SB

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... SurvivaBear 10-03-02 1
 RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... SherpaDave 10-03-02 2
   RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... true 10-03-02 3
   vote changing TechNoir 10-03-02 4
       RE: vote changing MDSkinner 10-03-02 10
           RE: vote changing shakes the clown 10-03-02 12
               RE: vote changing MDSkinner 10-03-02 13
       RE: vote changing L82LIFE 10-03-02 17
   RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... Outfrontgirl 10-03-02 5
       RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... SherpaDave 10-03-02 6
           actually... shakes the clown 10-03-02 9
               RE: actually... true 10-03-02 11
                   RE: actually... shakes the clown 10-03-02 15
                       RE: actually... true 10-03-02 18
               RE: actually... SurvivinDawg 10-03-02 14
                   RE: actually... Outfrontgirl 10-03-02 19
                       RE: actually... SurvivinDawg 10-03-02 20
                           RE: actually... Outfrontgirl 10-03-02 23
                               RE: actually... SurvivinDawg 10-03-02 28
                       Right! AyaK 10-03-02 26
                   RE: actually... true 10-03-02 21
                       RE: actually... SurvivinDawg 10-03-02 27
       RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... shakes the clown 10-03-02 7
           RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... Outfrontgirl 10-03-02 16
               RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... SherpaDave 10-03-02 22
                   RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... Outfrontgirl 10-03-02 24
                       RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... SherpaDave 10-03-02 25
       RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode ... ivoryElephant 10-03-02 8

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SurvivaBear 2634 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 06:06 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
Bless your heart Webby. First the server, now your laptop. I know me and all your other serfs truly appreciate your efforts.


Beware the Bear! An IceCat Original, © 2002

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 06:33 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-02 AT 09:10 PM (EST)

Woo! Maybe this will help to stem the tide of lemmings switching picks to Jed. I've never seen so many vote changes in one thread.

Edited to add: well, I guess congratulations to the "lemmings" are in order. Remind me not to make my Yahoo picks next week until the Snewser has spoken.

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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 06:43 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
LMAO Dave! I've never really understood changing votes on the vote thresd. I don't really see the point.

tide of lemmings

ROTFL!

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TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 06:49 PM (EST)
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4. "vote changing"
Yeah, what's with that? Clown Gang, gotta suck up to the leader who has nothing but distain for the suck ups? Most odd.


Unfortunately I'm very visual and now I have that mental picture of the Clown Gang Leader, carrying his Nyquil with all those little followers and wannabes with painted faces. <scream>

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:09 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: vote changing"
This vote changing is a sad display.

Even more sad, I feel like I should changing mine now.

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:10 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: vote changing"
>This vote changing is a sad
>display.
>
>Even more sad, I feel like
>I should changing mine now.
>


...believe me, I'm not proud of myself, but then again I'm also not ignorant enough to pretend that I had any dignity going into this thing to begin with so what's the difference.


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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:12 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: vote changing"
Solid point, Shakes.
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L82LIFE 5333 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:20 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: vote changing"
OMG! I may not have changed my vote, but Shakes and OFG did cause me to change my mind before I voted.
Does this mean I'm a Shakes Groupie??!!??!!
Even more importantly, is there a recovery program I can join?


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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 06:56 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
Hey, I resemble the "vote changer"--but that's a proud tradition of mine that til now not many had adopted.

I think of it as "flexibility"--because I used to vote right before the show when I had finally made up my mind, but the right to change my vote allows me to be dynamically ambivalent and still post my reasoning.

Why change? Because whatever your final official vote ends up, that's the pick you are stuck with for your season record.

Dave, AyaK's on the lemming bandwagon and not ashamed to say so ...

Before the Jed rush, the Stephanie vote was "mooing" along nicely. We don't seem to have a lot of strong convictions this time around.

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:04 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
Yeah, I actually read Aya's vote and was damned tempted to break my own rule and comment on it. I think, based on his readings of a show he hasn't watched, that he believes Jed is a Hunter-esque leader of the tribe, and that just ain't the case.

Oh, and OFG? You're not a lemming. They're all following YOU. Even shakes.


Criminals From the Neck Up

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:08 PM (EST)
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9. "actually..."
>Oh, and OFG? You're not a
>lemming. They're all following YOU.
>Even shakes.


...actually Shurps, me and OFG are both following the same person, but it ain't either one of us.


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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:10 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: actually..."
Hey shakes, are you following Dabo too? *giggle*

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:13 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: actually..."
hey True, if I screw this one up I'll be following Kurt Warner in the Big Book of Washed Up Has Beens and I don't even have a lame broken pinkie excuse to work with ;)


And now its official, I now have over 50% of the posts on this thresd proving once again that no one DAWs like the master.


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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:25 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: actually..."
>hey True, if I screw this one up I'll be following Kurt Warner in the Big Book of Washed Up Has Beens and I don't even have a lame broken pinkie excuse to work with ;)<

Low blow, even for you shakes Thank goodness it's STILL baseball season, and hockey season is just around the corner.

Hey, at least you're honest enough to admit you didn't come up with the Jed revelation all on your own. We might as well all relax and wait for the one with the source to speak before we vote. *yawn*

-true
P.F.T.P.O.S.E.H
People For The Preservation Of Shakes Enourmous Head

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:13 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: actually..."
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-02 AT 07:16 PM (EST)

...actually Shurps, me and OFG are both following the same person, but it ain't either one of us.

...and SNewser is not the worst person to be following.

I was a lemming... but on my FIRST vote, not my change. In my first vote, I did say I was looking strongly at JED, but OFG and shakestheclown (and others) did sway me to Stephanie.

Y'all can believe this, or not believe it ("Hear me now and believe me later!") but I was going to change to Jed independently of OFG/Shakes, and those BUMS (yes I said BUMS) just beat me to the punch.

Edited to add: Contrary to OFG's "interesting" practice in S-4 and S-5 of frequent vote changes, this is the first time I've ever changed mine. And now I wish to God I'd put JED the first freakin' time.


Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:25 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: actually..."
it's OK Dawg!
I believe you were on to Jed in advance of the mad rush.
I know you were inclined to pick Tanya last week and then switched.

Your spoiling reputation shines...

Shakes, you too!

btw, who is Snewser?

And Dave, AyaK NEVER watched the show. But previously he may have followed accounts of the show more closely.

I agree that Jed is not the de facto leader, but he is a leader candidate threatening the Jake/Ken patriarchy, as Gabe threatened John with his anarchy and refusal to suck up.

AyaK's not that far afield.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:31 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: actually..."
I know you were inclined to pick Tanya last week and then switched.

Ouch! Rub it in, whydontcha? Yes, that one still hurts.

btw, who is Snewser?

I'm not sure, probably just some lemming who, like AyaK, never pays attention to the show or anything like that...

BTW, this really is a repeat of Hunter last year, IMHO.

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:48 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: actually..."
I wasn't rubbing it in about Tanya, Dawg; I was confirming a post you made on the old board when the server was down that only a few saw. Now relax...

Hunter, yeah...
But Carl was the rich dentist who went out at #3.
I am so tickled by the S3 parallels that I'm going to keep repeating them until--um, until they stop holding true.

I know John doesn't quite equal Diane, as his hair is quite different--but they both got the crucial map in their hands--(as did Debb)--so reading the map can be the kiss of death they had in common.

If Ghandia goes in Linda's place, I'll be beside myself with deja vu.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 09:10 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: actually..."
I wasn't rubbing it in about Tanya, Dawg; I was confirming a post you made on the old board when the server was down that only a few saw. Now relax...

I was being humorous, hence the smiley face. Work with me on the humor here!

All's well that ends well, I say.

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 08:03 PM (EST)
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26. "Right!"
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-02 AT 08:08 PM (EST)

>And Dave, AyaK NEVER watched the show. But previously he
>may have followed accounts of the show more closely.

Exactly right, OFG. I recounted the number of episodes that I watched, and I've watched 9: S1 - 1 (E13), S2 - 4 (E1, E3, E9, E14), S3 - 3 (E2 -- but only the first 15 minutes, E7, E13), S4 - 1 (E13). BUT I used to read the episode closed-caption transcripts ... all of them.

>I agree that Jed is not the de facto leader, but
>he is a leader candidate threatening the Jake/Ken patriarchy, as
>Gabe threatened John with his anarchy and refusal to suck up.
>
>AyaK's not that far afield.

Good to hear! But the truth is that NONE of the people I listed were really the leaders, because REAL leaders (think Richard, Gretchen, Colby, Mike S., Lex) don't get voted off early. Hunter as the leader? Naah, Rob was clearly the dominant personality -- note that Hunter's ally Patricia was voted off (thanks to Rob) right before Hunter.

I wondered if anyone would see that.

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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:33 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: actually..."
For goodness sake, Dawg, we believe you. You stated clearly in your original vote that you were leaning toward a Jed boot this week, no need to keep telling us.


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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 09:08 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: actually..."
I know, true... work with me on the humor of all this...

"He who dares not offend cannot be honest." -- Thomas Paine

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:06 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
as for me, at 1-1 for the season, I'm just scared that the "clown gang" (TM Technoir 2002) is gonna pack up the tent and find a new snake oil salesman to worship if I drop below the .500 mark...so, I'm understandably under a lot of pressure these days.


This show will get a lot easier once we get rid of a few SJ's and we can just ride the CG weight loss spoilers all the way to the final 5-7. Agreed?


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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:17 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
Shakes, (from a fellow 1-1 for the season)
As one of those dead white guys said:

"Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown"

Especially when the head is annointed with snake oil!

I feel your pain. To quote GT, "Steph burned me last week," which reminds me of how I voted incorrectly for Tbird THREE times in S3. (It was all Krautboy's fault)

I wasn't feeling GOOD inside about my Steph vote this week, and the merest mention of Jed as an alternate made me feel MUCH better, so I went with it.


"Indecision may or may not be my problem"

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:38 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-02 AT 07:40 PM (EST)

On the plus side, at least we seem to be moving away from everyone who was buying MB's hype of Ghandia and Robb. And I'm not changing my vote of Jake. At least not until there's an episode where I think he might actually be the one to go.

Edited to add: even if I weren't keeping my ears peeled for screaming kids, I think I'd still let someone else take on the next tally of that mess.


Criminals From the Neck Up

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:55 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-02 AT 07:57 PM (EST)

I thought you did the tally cause they gave you the blue suit, Dave...

A pity, because someone needs to taunt Blue Man sleeeve for putting his sig pic in your thread.

Dawg and I did it too, but we edited.
*just kidding, couldn't resist because sleeeve rarely ever slips up*

Edited to note that *I* have one more post than shakes in this thread and he is not the Supreme DAW he claims to be.
I guess I need to find a sig pic with a big head now.

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:59 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
Dear god, no! They hung that albatross around my neck for coordinating summary writers. I think my new official mantra will be, "not a mod, not a mod, not a mod." And oops, there go the screaming kids. Back later.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-02, 07:08 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: SurvivorBlows Official Episode 3 Prediction "
I still think it is ghandia. Remember last year they made it look obvious that patricia was going with the Tool Tree promo. People thought it was too obvious but they just decided to give us one. It is the reverse reverse psychology ;)


-congratulations to Clay Jordan, the winner of survivor Thailand-

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