I don't know how much good this will do this late in the day, but I had it all typed up and ready to post Tuesday. If nothing else, it'll get us started for the season.

Boot Sheet: Episode 2

Last season some of you found my boot sheet helpful in keeping track of spoiler information etc. I’ve decided to post one this week despite how early in the season it is. I feel like the earlier I can get this information posted, the easier it will be to update.

The boot sheet isn’t necessarily to predict who will be booted but to narrow down the possibilities on a weekly basis. Information included on the players is a combination of spoilers from the community at large and my own educated guesswork. Feel free to disagree with what I have here or add to it. The more input, the better!

Chuay Gahn

Okay, we have a lot of weight loss spoilers on members of this tribe. We also have the information posted by Gdiva over at sucks. It should be fairly easy to narrow down our possibilities for an E2 boot from this tribe.

To boot, or not to boot; that is the question

Ted

Reasons Against

Reported weight loss of 55 lbs.
He is the strongest member of the tribe – a definite asset in this not-so-buff tribe.
Shown getting along with tribe members (so far)
Voted with the majority at last TC – possible alliance
Low face time in Episode 1
Alpha male and potential tribe leader (initially I had this as a reason for a boot, but changed my mind considering the tribal dynamics. I know that alpha males can get booted early for taking a leadership role, but only if they are disliked by the majority. Obviously this is what prompted the Hunter boot last season, but I’m also looking at who in the tribe would be threatened by Ted. I seriously doubt Jan, Clay, Helen, or Tanya would see him as a threat. More than anything, he is an asset, a good guy with a lot of strength. So far, he hasn’t rubbed anyone the wrong way or been obnoxious or bossy. He is a likely candidate for an elected tribal leader.

Reasons For

None that I can think of

Status: Ted is safe for episode 2

Clay

Reasons Against

According to The News Star Clay came back from Thailand 32 lbs. Lighter
Very low face time in E1
Has any tribe ever kicked off two males first?
GDiva (Ghandia’s handle over at sucks) expresses a dislike for him. We haven’t seen a conflict develop yet, but we may see it in the next few episodes.
He voted with the majority last TC – possible alliance

Reasons For

Clay received one vote last TC

Status: Clay is safe for episode 2

Brian

Reasons Against

Brian is the youngest male on the team and can contribute his strength.
Very low face time for episode 1.
Voted with the majority last TC – possible alliance
Some spoilers have analyzed the shots of him at his car dealership and have determined that he lost weight (weak evidence).
Shown getting along with tribe members.

Reasons For

None that I can think of

Status: Brian is safe for episode 2

Jan

Reasons Against

Reports that she came home “noticeably thinner” according to The Saint Peterburg Times
She is the tribe’s “elder” which may influence the tribe members. (weak evidence)
Voted with the majority at TC – possible alliance
Has proven herself in a challenge
Shown getting along with others

Reasons For

Age/Gender

Status: seemingly vulnerable, but may be getting protection from an alliance

Ghandia

Reasons Against

Voted with majority at last TC – possible alliance

Reasons For

Screwed up in the first challenge and sent her tribe to TC
It is widely believed she posted information at survivorsucks.com indicating an early boot

Status: Very vulnerable

Helen

Reasons Against

Weight loss spoiler of 35lbs reported in The Providence Journal
As a swim instructor, her skills will help the tribe
Physically fit

Reasons For

Voted outside the majority last TC – hasn’t formed an alliance yet
Featured prominently in the previews for episode 2(weak evidence)
Age/Gender

Status: Safe (they’ll need her strength)

Tanya

Reasons Against

Voted with the majority last TC – possible alliance
Little face time in episode 1
Shown getting along with other members

Reasons For

Her sickness could earn her a Jessie-like boot.
Smallest, weakest female

Status: Very vulnerable

Sook Jai

We know that episode two is titled “The Great Divide” and the previews indicate this is in regards to Sook Jai. Many of us are assuming there will be a split of loyalties, and the beginning of two opposing alliances. The only thing we can be relatively certain of (at this point) is that Robb and Shii Ann will be on opposite sides of this divide.

Ken

For

None

Against

Strength
Low face time in episode 1
Lingering respect/sympathy for NYPD!

Status: Safe for episode 2

Jake

For

Oldest member of the tribe(see also Against)
Taking an alpha male role – could be a source of friction with the younger males.
Quite a bit of face time for episode 1

Against

oldest member of the tribe (it might be a respect thing.)

Status: Safe for episode 2

Robb

For

Loud, obnoxious, a source of friction
Has already made enemies in Shii Ann and possibly Jed.
They do not need his strength as they have muscles aplenty at Sook Jai
Heavy face time for episode 1

Against

Seemingly hard worker
Has Ken's support

Status: Vulnerable for episode 2

Jed

For

The other alpha males may feel threatened by him
Went off by himself to find food; Ken and Robb were peeved at this
He didn’t help build the shelter until K&R complained.

Against

Low face time in episode 1
Possible alliance with Shii Ann (weak evidence)

Status: Possibly vulnerable for episode 2

Erin

For

Last to be picked for the tribe (easily expendable)

Against

Low face time for episode 1
A throw-away comment made by Probst that her breast size stayed the same while the rest of her shrunk (indicating weight loss)

Status: Possibly vulnerable this week but will probably manage to slide UTR as the explosive personalities duke it out.

Penny

For

None

Against

Low face time for episode 1

Status Safe for episode 1

Stephanie

For

None

Against

She’s strong and likes to get naked (the males will love this)
Shown bonding with Shii Ann

Status Safe for episode 2

Shii Ann

For

She went off from the tribe (sitting in a tree) during the rainstorm
Conflict with Robb
Quite a bit of face time for episode 1

Against

Appears to have support from Jake and Jed

Status: Vulnerable for episode 2

So, narrowed down, it looks like Tanya or Ghandia from CG, and Robb or Shii Ann from SJ. **************************************************
As I said, feel free to add to or disagree with the information. Happy spoiling!