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"Confessionals... Episode One"
survivormitsx 271 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-22-02, 00:07 AM (EST)
 
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"Confessionals... Episode One" |
I took the liberty of watching the show again, and getting a count on how many confessionals each survivor had- now i counted one as a "new" confessional when they showed their name and place, etc. So here are the numbers....lets see if it helps at all: John- 5...booted.
Jan- 2
Jed- 2
Robb- 5
Tanya- 3
Clay- 1
Erin- 1
Jake- 4
Stephanie-2
Penny- 3
Ghandia- 5
Ted- 2
Helen- 3
Shii Ann- 3
Brian- 1
Ken- 1 Ok, so if this can help conclude anything... Also, last season a spoiler was a "fire" before someone would vote...well at the TC this is what i recorded: No fire, John
Fire, Brian
No fire, Ghandia
Fire, Helen
Fire, Ted
No fire, Clay
No fire, Tanya
Fire, Jan
This could be the ones that make merge, this could be the final four, or nothing. You guys can decide. 
If your happy and you know it, Do the Cooper dance!!
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-22-02, 03:55 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Confessionals... Episode One" |
Yes, but Kathy had alot of screen time early on last season. And she made final 3. We all thought she was gone the minute her tribe went to TC. But they kept winning challenges. Robb could get lucky and be an idiot early on and get the chance to change things before his team ever goes to TC. He has strength. I do have trouble thinking Ghandia gets very far though. She's emotional and not strong physically or mentally. She is dispensable.
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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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09-22-02, 01:02 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Confessionals... Episode One" |
Just for comparison, and I'll also add the voting order and whether they had their vote revealed.................Survivor 1 - I Don't Have S1 Tapes, If Anyone Does, Feel Free To Tell...I don't think the DVD shows the whole TC, so I'm not going to bother digging it out. Survivor 2 - Fire Was Used, Noted Below Debb, No Fire Before Vote, Vote For Jeff Shown W/Confessional
Mike, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Rodger, Fire Before Vote, Vote For Debb Shown W/Confessional
Liz, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Nick, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Jeff, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Alicia, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Kimmi, Fire Before Vote, Vote For Debb Shown W/Confessional
Survivor 3, Episode 1 - Fire wasn't used before votes were cast.
Diane, Vote For Clarence WAS Shown With Confessional
Lex, No Vote Shown
Jessie, No Vote Shown
Ethan, Vote For Diane WAS Shown With Confessional
Kim J, No Vote Shown
Tom, Vote For Clarence WAS Shown With Confessional
Kelly G., No Vote Shown
Clarence, Vote For Diane WAS Shown With Confessional
Survivor 4, Episode 1 - Fire Was Shown, Is Listed Below Also...
Peter, No Fire, Vote For Patricia Shown W/Confessional
Gina, Fire Before Vote, Vote Not Shown
Patricia, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Vee, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Sarah, No Fire, Vote For Peter Shown W/Confessional
Hunter, No Fire, No Vote Shown
Rob M., No Fire, No Vote Shown
Sean, Fire Before Vote, Vote For Sarah Shown W/Confessional
Survivor 5, Episode 1
John, No Fire, Vote For Ghandia Shown W/Confessional
Brian, Fire Before Vote, Vote Not Shown
Ghandia, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Helen, Fire Before Vote, Vote For Clay Shown W/Confessional
Ted, Fire Before Vote, Vote Not Shown
Clay, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Tanya, No Fire, Vote Not Shown
Jan, Fire Before Vote, Vote For John Shown W/Confessional
I'm not for sure if we should look at the fire coming before someone votes, I actually think it may be more relevant to the person who cast their vote before the fire was shown. I'm sure I can find other analysis, so I'll proboably see what I can find and keep posting useless stuff like this, hehe.
Also, note that for some odd reason, the person that votes first has had a rather bad luck of getting voted out that night. Debb, Diane, Peter, and John were all the first person to vote, and I remember seeing something about that trend before sometime around the middle of last season.
AND, note the "Narrator" in the first votes. The narrator has traditionally given the main reason for why the person voted out is being voted out..I haven't figured out any relevance, but just for kicks....Survivor 2 (E1) was Kimmi and somewhat Rodger, Survivor 3 (E1) was Ethan, Survivor 4 (E1) was Sarah, and Survivor 5 (E1) was Jan. 
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-22-02, 06:16 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Confessionals... Episode One" |
To me, the big question is: "How does this information help us to spoil the show?"It's a bit late in the game to know that John is going because he's the first person voting. If the fire before/after a vote can be shown to give us a clue as to merger-makers or Finalists, great! But I'm not seeing a pattern so far. 
"He who dares not offend cannot be honest." -- Thomas PaineContradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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09-23-02, 00:47 AM (EST)
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8. "Confessional Hindsight" |
Thought it might be useful to look back at Episode 1 from Survivor 4 and Survivor 5 and compare the editing of the confessionals in EP1 against the final boot order…Boot Order Survivor 4 / Number of confessionals in EP1 EP1 Peter 4
EP2 Patricia 3
EP3 Hunter 1
EP4 Sarah (Swap) 1
EP5 Gabe 2
EP6 Gina * 5
EP7 Rob * 6
Ep8 John *(Merge) 4
EP9 Zoe 1
EP10 Tammy 3
EP11 General 3
EP12 Sean * 5
EP13 Final 4
Paschal 2
Kathy 3
Neleh 2
Vee 2 * Main Cjharacters
Hindsight shows us that in Survivor 4, EP1 MB editied the confessionals to give the EP1 Bootee his face time, develop the “*main characters”, and keep the Final 4 in the background. Secondary characters were left undeveloped.
Low Confessional Count
0-1 Confessionals: Secondary characters left undeveloped during EP1. They were safe for EP2 but did not make the final4. High Confessional Count
4-6 Confessionals: Main Characters, thoroughly developed in EP1, including conflicts that play out in later episodes. This grouping also includes the bootee, who typically gets greater “face time” during EP1. Moderate Confessional Count
2-3 Confessionals: This category included the final 4 concealed among other secondary characters, including the bootee for EP2. The EP1 confessionals of the final 4 were generally positive in nature and did not include any negative references to other contestants.
If we assume the same basic editing guidelines were used for S5, we can divide the contestants into general categories based on the # of confessionals to try to predict what role they will play as the show unfolds…
S5 Contestant Category / Confessionals during EP1 0-1 Low confessional count Clay 1
Erin 1
Ken 1
Brian 1
Stephanie 1 This group is most likely safe for EP2, but probably not in the final 4. Their personalities will also keep them from “main character” roles in S5. 5-8 High Confessional count John (ep1 bootee) 6
Ghandia 8
Jake 5
Robb 5
Helen 5 This group includes the “main characters” of the show and the EP1 bootee. Probably safe for EP2, but not as likely to make the final4 as members of the “moderate group”. 2-3 Moderate Confessional Count Jan 3
Jed 2
Tanya 3
Penny 2
Ted 3
Shii Ann 3 This group is most likely to include members of the Final 4, as well as the EP2 bootee. Members of this group whose confessional remarks were generally positive and did not include direct references to other contestants (profile of final 4 from S4/EP1) are Penny and Ted. It follows then that the EP2 bootee is most likely to come from the remaining group: Jan, Jed, Tanya or Shii Ann. A scenario could be made for any one of them… 
Krautboy
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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09-23-02, 10:43 AM (EST)
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9. "I feel like I'm spending the day shooting down theories but..." |
While this is a nice analysis Krautboy, it seems based on the assumption that S5 will be played out the same way S4 was. I see no basis for that assumption. The first episode of S4 confessionals wasn't like the S3 or S2 confessionals. Here's a comparisonIn S3, Ethan was an E1 star. I believe he had more confessionals than any other contestant, something like 6. Kim J. only had one confessional (about dumping water), while Tom and Lex were in the moderate range. The next bootee, Jessie, I believe had two confessionals. Carl, the third bootee, and Silas, the fifth, had none. In S2, three contestants had zero confessionals: Kel, the next bootee, Tina, the winner, and Amber, who finished sixth. The stars were Jeff V., Kimmi, and Jerri. I don't have S1, but I think it would just reinforce the point that there isn't much pattern to these things. EPMB uses confessionals when people say something interesting. The ONLY possible pattern I see is that the next couple bootees tend not to be too "high profile." If that trend continues, then Ghandia, Jake, Robb, and Helen are likely safe. OTOH, if Ghandia or Robb were the next boot, I'd think EPMB might try to milk their highly comical screen time for all it was worth, so you just never know.
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Boilermaker 260 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-23-02, 01:05 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Confessional Hindsight" |
I think the "Don't judge a book by its cover" confessional probably is EPMB's way of forecasting that Brian will probably make it quite far, if not Final 2. With all the preshow hype about Brian being the "Soft Core Porn" Survivor, many Survivor enthusiasts I know have written him off. As stated in a preshow interview by Jeff Probst, no other Survivor finds out about his past "movie career" while on Survivor. Well that's my current thought anyways...
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