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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 09-15-02, 11:17 PM (EST) "What we have for E1" Alrighty, it's crunch and with less than a week to go we it appears that we have very little info, but do we? I actually think we have quiet a bit, and although I'm not 100% on who will be the first evictee there are several very good candidates and some even more that are totally safe (week 1 at least). For starters let's elliminate the confusion from the previews concerning the male-female. That isn't going to happen, and you need look no further than Fester post here to see why. If you still have questions take a look at this picture which is the only one I have seen where a guy (Ken) is wearing purple. This one picture alone with the already known groupings proves the configuration is indeed RED team: Ted, John, Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan, Tanya, Ghandia and the PURPLE team consisting of: Shii Ann, Stephanie, Erin, Penny, Jed, Ken, Robb, Jake Next lets take a look at weight loss spoilers. We have various reports for Ted, Brian, Jan, Erin, Helen and Clay, that they had weight loss issues at least enough that would indicate they make it past week one. We also have beard evidence for Brian, Clay, Ted, and Ken. Again at the very least this should ensure a 3 day stay for each of them. Therefore our potential evictee list is as follows: Red Team: John, Tanya, and Ghandia Purple Team: Jed, Jake, Robb, Penny, Shephanie, Shii Ann Next lets take a look at Ghandia and her Sucks posts. I never saw the posts myself, but the general consensus I have gather from reading various other boards was they were likely her. Among her most interesting points were her "friends" included Robb and Shii Ann (both of which are on the other initial tribe) because they were all smokers. Since none of them could actually smoke while in the game, the likely senario is that all three are likely pre or post jury, and none of them are the winner/runner up. Also there seemed to be a fair amount of resentment from her towards both Clay and Ted (both on her initial team), and since both of them have spoilers that indicate they stay a while (especially Ted) I think it is not too farfetched to believe that Robb, Shii Ann and Ghandia will all be spending time at the looser lodge. Interestingly enough I think the Ghandia posts and her strong opinions reflected in them likely indicate that she is NOT the first person booted (under the assumption she wouldn't want draw attention to herself if she was in the "first person off" slot AND she likely would need to be around more than 3 days to form the strong negative opinions). Before we procede we need to next figure out the hype. It's clear that EPM et al have worked very hard on the male vs female myth. So what exactly is the whole suprise thing? There could of course be something truly interesting like an initial male-female team and a day 2 shuffling, after all we know how hard EPM has worked to get a male vs female configuration in the past. However I expect in this case the hype is just that with little if any substance. The "suprise" will likely be a random team selection upon arrival in the boats 4-4 male-female, but how that classifies as a "suprise" to anyone is a little bit unclear to me. I suppose another option would be no TC in the first episode, but with the boat challenge and the picks of the red boat and red buff clad people certainly suggest that is what it is I betting against anything too out of the ordinary happening in E1. At this point though I do think we can elliminate half of the people from the #1 boot slot, and likely more (hint hint). The majority on the potential list are part of the purple team with a couple on the red team. Of those most likely we have: Tanya - whose father died towards the end of the filming and she was allowed to immediately return home John - the preacher who's only "spoiler" look to indicate he will not be around long Shii Ann - who looks to be smoking in the looser lodge with Ghandia Robb - ditto Shii Ann The others Jake, Jed, Penny, and Stephanie look more unlikely at this point, but I don't think there is enough "spoilers" to elliminate them as of yet. Finally we also have this: Clearly this is Ted (red team), and maybe he's just washing his head, but to me it looks like he is a bit upset. Perhaps not, but at this point there is not a whole lot to go on so I'm grasping If so, I'm betting John is first out, but with a few more days I'm hopeful we can narrow it down more! Ok so what have I missed here? Comments? Additional info? -ICB   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: What we have for E1 ejm92 09-16-02 1    RE: What we have for E1 weltek 09-16-02 2        RE: What we have for E1 VerucaSalt 09-16-02 3  RE: What we have for E1 dabo 09-16-02 4  RE: What we have for E1 wendyp 09-16-02 5    RE: What to make of this VerucaSalt 09-16-02 6        RE: What to make of this SurvivorBlows 09-16-02 7            RE: What to make of this VolcanicGlass 09-17-02 10                RE: What to make of this idiotcowboy 09-17-02 11                    Brian's torch is silver Naked 09-20-02 17  RE: What we have for E1 ShowMeTheWinner 09-16-02 8    RE: What we have for E1 SPRocket 09-16-02 9    RE: What we have for E1 idiotcowboy 09-17-02 12  Erin Update.... mistofleas 09-18-02 13    RE: Erin Update.... true 09-19-02 14        RE: Erin Update.... mistofleas 09-19-02 15  RE: What we have for E1 ginger 09-19-02 16

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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 09-16-02, 00:12 AM (EST) 1. "RE: What we have for E1" Awesome analysis, ICB, as usual.....I agree with almost everything you said, except for the fact that I haven't totally ruled Ghandia out as first boot. In my opinion, it is unfathomable to why Tanya would be voted off first...she seems to be an extremely sweet person, and her nature of work is enough in my mind to rule her out. The line from Probst and the ramblings from the crew about how the interesting people went early continues to stress the fact that Shii Ann, Ghandia, and John, and most likely Robb go pre-merge.....I think when everyone puts their two cents in, we have it narrowed down to only a few people, and so far everyone has done an incredible job with the minimal amount of resources that have been given. Packers 2002 Mission: 16W Update: 1-0, Saints are the next casualty! "If we get home field, it's over. We're not losing at home." - Brett Favre....Consider yourselves forewarned, Rams.   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-16-02, 09:11 AM (EST) 2. "RE: What we have for E1" I haven't watched the interview clips, so maybe someone else can chime in here. Who out of the ICB potential evictee list (stellar analysis ICB!) was the biggest introvert? We usually see the first bootee being someone who doesn't "bond" with the group or is the absolute weakest link (Well, then there was freaky Peter, but I digress). They all seem like fairly strong people, so I lean towards this first boot being the quiet, "different" person. Totally stereotypical of me, but did Shii Ann seem to fit that profile?   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 09-16-02, 09:54 AM (EST) 3. "RE: What we have for E1" Very concise accumulation of what we have (or don't have) Based on observation ONLY, I would hazard a guess that the following people have strikes against them John - few caps seen of him interacting with others. In addition, I believe religion will play a small or no part in this season. Of the four males on this tribe, he appears to be the one that would be left out. Ghaandia - her references to Clay and Ted and her personality as a whole (I do have a portion of her posts and read the thread when it was up and I do believe it is her)strike me as someone who is booted early, maybe not first, but definitely early. Plus there have been no references to any weight loss with her. The above two, IMO are the the potential first bootees from this tribe. Helen is great in the water, Brian and Clay have visible weight loss and hair growth. Ted is friendly with Clay and is strong and Tanya is probably cooperative and friendly. The purple tribe is interesting; there are definitely more potential bootees for various reasons or even no reasons. The weight loss spoiler of Erinn I am not putting that much stock into mainly because Jeff made the comment about her breasts staying the same but she got smaller. The girl has breast implants and even if she lost a little weight, her boobs would stay the same even if her body got smaller. But I do not see her going first merely based on the fact that the odds of her getting the most votes the first time around is smaller than some others. As far as Stephanie, Ken, Penny, Robb, I think they are at least safe for the first round just based on their age and potential strength as well as bonding. Shii Ann and Jake are the ones I see as the potential first bootees and leaning more towards Shii Ann, based on She Devil, based on reports I read from a coworker stating she is very difficult and based on gut. Jake I am only going on due to the age factor. However, that is not always the case, i.e. Rodger, Pappy, Patricia.... In fact, Jake being the only elder may secure him some time there further. These are opinion only, mind you. But based on various videocaps of who appears with who, Ghandiia statements, some weight loss (solely on pics, I'm not going by "reports") I think the first potential bootees from both sides are John, Ghandiia, Shii Ann and to a lesser degree Jake (I actually believe he may go far)   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-16-02, 09:57 AM (EST) 4. "RE: What we have for E1" Great analysis, ICB. John's statement in the MTV Survivor special do follow typical MB set-up/"misdirection"/irony patterns.   Top

wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 09-16-02, 10:18 AM (EST) 5. "RE: What we have for E1" Great summary! I have been leaning towards Ghandia only becuase on the boat ride she was holding her head like she was sea sick. I figured this was the 5th addition and they know the game and do not want to risk having some one that is sick. Plus they migth be thinking there are going to be water challenges and if she gets sea sick she is a liability.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 09-16-02, 03:53 PM (EST) 6. "RE: What to make of this" LAST EDITED ON 09-17-02 AT 07:45 AM (EST) Thanks to Survivorfever.net This is an image that was posted with reference to Sue Hawk's visit to the island for her commentary for TV Guide. The other caps show her at the Red tribe area with this pic of the torches... There are five torches there and they look used (black on top) Question here is when as well as why does one have silver band and the others gold band SB - behind the third torch you can see the other one right behind it   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-16-02, 04:17 PM (EST) 7. "RE: What to make of this" Maybe I'm missing something, but how come I only see 4 torches? Where's the fifth? Thanks. -SB   Top

VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 09-17-02, 02:52 AM (EST) 10. "RE: What to make of this"   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 09-17-02, 09:16 AM (EST) 11. "RE: What to make of this" I see 5 now too, thanks VolcanicGlass! As far as the initial question (ie "what does it mean?"), I think this could be a very important find in the coming weeks. In particular I think we need to be looking for coloring on the torches to see if we can identify who's torch has the silverish hue (far left). This being from Sue Hawk's visit also disturbs me a little. Is there perhaps a wider shot that shows additional torches? If not this could represent bad things for the Red tribe, as I expect Sue did not get the guided tour too far into the game itself. It's certainly something to consider. -ICB   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 09-20-02, 06:35 AM (EST) 17. "Brian's torch is silver" After close inspecection at TC in EP1, Brian had the only Silver torch on the red team. If Purple doesn't have a silver torch, then this would mean that Brian is safe untill the 4th tribal council by red team, or that he makes the final 5.   Top

ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 09-16-02, 05:05 PM (EST) 8. "RE: What we have for E1" Clearly this is Ted (red team), and maybe he's just washing his head, but to me it looks like he is a bit upset. I think Ted was just washing his head after using the shaving kit, which he brought as a luxury item, on his head. Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)   Top

SPRocket 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 09-16-02, 05:51 PM (EST) 9. "RE: What we have for E1" I have also seen a couple of vidcaps showing both Jed and Jake with more facial hair than could be grown in 3 days, even in the warmth and humidity of Thailand (and apparently, nails and hair grow faster in a warm environment). And yes, even though Jake has a goatee, this facial hair was up further on his face and clearly not part of his goatee.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 09-17-02, 09:21 AM (EST) 12. "RE: What we have for E1" >I think Ted was just washing his head after using the shaving kit, which he brought as a luxury item, on his head. Probably so, but the red buff on his arm made me question that, although watching the video (MTV thing) of the still shot makes me more inclided to believe he wasn't actually upset as I initially though it might. I still dont rule out a red team loss though, as I see no clear evidence as to which team will win the IC. -ICB   Top

mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-18-02, 11:59 PM (EST) 13. "Erin Update...." LAST EDITED ON 09-19-02 AT 00:44 AM (EST) I honestly wasn't sure where to put this. Rain Crow suggested SOTS but since this has lots of spoiler stuff too, I'm going to be redundant and post this same post on both threads. Rain Crow and I did some recon tonight and got some Erin information. I can tell you several things: 1) A "source" (who doesn't know he's a source and that's all I can say at this point) says that co-workers and friends are throwing a Survivor 5 party for Erin on Thursday night for the first episode. Her close friends and co-workers will be there to watch the first episode with her (we're assuming her home but don't know that for sure) on Thursday night. She's not going to be at work but several of her co-workers are scheduled and will have to run to the bar as soon as the show is over. 2) Erin is "scheduled" to be at work on Friday night. Rain Crow and I were told that she'll be in at 10:00pm. (I have several reasons to believe this is true, I'm asking you just to trust me on this one) 3) Our "source" (gods, don't you just hate the overuse of "bunny ears"?!) told us that he hasn't watched much of Survivor so he doesn't know what it takes to "win the game" but that Erin is a terrific and sweet person who get's along with everyone. 4) Our "source" says that Erin has mentioned several people with whom she keeps in contact but at that moment he couldn't recall the names. (We'll work on that but we must move carefully with this one) 5) Rain Crow and I will be at the Aquarium Bar at 10:00pm on Friday night to make "contact" with Erin. So...what does this mean? Well, from what I've seen in the threads posted already and granted I haven't been around for several weeks due to a the death of a close friend but, few think Erin will go this week anyway. Since she'll be at a party Thursday night and at work on Friday night we now know for sure, she's not the first boot. Second, each week, Rain Crow and I plan on trying to determine if Erin will be at work on either Thursday or Friday, which would let us know if she's going to be in New York for the Early Show or not. I hope this gives some helpful information. Rain Crow will be posting his observations in the morning (he's an old fogie and has to go to bed sooner than this whipper snapper. *pfffttt*). I'd just like to add one thing. Rain Crow is a way cool guy. A complete gentleman and a great snooping companion. I've had a blast meeting him and can't wait for more of our "recon missions". --hopes she'll be forgiven for her "OT" overtones but old habits are hard to break edited because after 10:00pm my spelling goes out the window   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-19-02, 01:12 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Erin Update...." Thanks Misto and Rain Crow! Your hard work is truly appreciated. Keep it up! -true, who would love to spy with Misto and Rain Crow   Top

mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-19-02, 01:29 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Erin Update...." -true, who would love to spy with Misto and Rain Crow Then get your ass down to Austin honey! Jizzy's cool, but Rain Crow and I can show you 6th Street in all it's glory!! Can't beat that baby! --knows that ZZ will forgive her for the slight dis on his coolness   Top

ginger 22512 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-19-02, 03:38 PM (EST) 16. "RE: What we have for E1" ACME agrees.   Top

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