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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"Vecepia - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread"
IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-16-02, 09:26 PM (EST)
 
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"Vecepia - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" |
Vecepia - Official Final Episode Discussion ThreadThis is the official thread for discussing all final spoilers and speculation regarding this contestant. With such a short time to the final episode, it is crucial that all spoiling discussion be well focused and strictly organized. A (State of the Spoiling) SOTS thread will be generated that will link to and summarize the posts that are generated on this thread along with the discussion that develops on the other Official discussion threads. Remember... there are only three days... organization will be all important.
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 02:46 PM (EST)
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1. "The MamaKim of S4!" |
We all agree on this, right? Vee is toast unless she wins immunity. But so was Mama Kim, and she did (thanks to a little help from Evil Mark Burnett). So...a. What are the chances that she can win the first immunity?
b. If she does, what are her chances of making the final 2?
c. Finally, what are her chances of winning? My take on these issues: 1. Because she actually has been on the same team as all of the other castaways, she has at least a 33% chance of winning "Fallen Comrades." I handicap the odds like this: Vee 35%, Kathy 30%, Neleh 30%, Pappy 5%. 2. She votes ALONG WITH Kathy instead of FOR Kathy at the 1st TC, in my view. Why? I believe that she and Kathy make a "new partnership" at TC -- she agrees to save Kathy now if Kathy agrees to save her in the F3. I would think that Neleh gets ticked off by this, even though it's Kathy's only logical move. So, I think Vee has an excellent shot of making the F2 if she wins the first IC, because Kathy has committed to take her if she wins ... and Neleh is likely to be too POed at Kathy's partnership with Vee to cut Kathy any slack if she wins. 3. Well, she'll have Kathy and Sean for sure. Zoe seemed to be mad enough at her tribemates (and enough of a bozo) to side with Kathy again. Tammy and Robert and Pappy clearly liked Neleh better. So the swing vote is John. Does he feel betrayed by the switch by Paschal and Neleh? Or does he just want to vote against Vee as a proxy for Sean?
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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05-17-02, 04:53 PM (EST)
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9. "Not Gonna Happen" |
Man I hate it when I have to disagree with AyaK  First off I think there is little chance for a tie vote, it just doesnt make good sense on several fronts. Second there is NO WAY Vee wins. 0% chance of it happening. All you have to look at is the editing to know that she hasn't got a chance. If she wins the masses will go Vee who? It would kill the season if not the series, and IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Plus do you honestly think Vee would side with Kathy next TC after Kathy refused to side with her and Sean the previous one? I don't... but I bet you figured that one out At best she make the final 2 to loose to ANY of the others, but at this point I find that hard to buy. -ICB
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 08:26 PM (EST)
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13. "Disagree" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-17-02 AT 08:27 PM (EST)ICB, I don't like disagreeing with you either, but ... >First off I think there is little chance for a tie vote, it just doesnt make good sense on several fronts. OK, I decided to bring your logic over here, since you linked to it. Remember that my theory was that Kathy and Vee would align only if Vee won the F4 IC: If Kathy win's the IC, why would she risk alligning with Vee? All it would do would make winning the final IC more difficult, and tick off two jurist if she was successful. Honestly it looks a lot like a loose-loose proposition and I expect she would see this. Were she going to switch sides it make a lot better sence last week... and since she didn't she really has no good choice except to dance with who brung her. Finally we have the Vee wins IC. Is there any difference between this senario and the one where Kathy wins? I mean in the end does it not present the very same thing? NOPE it doesn't! AND if that was enough, don't underestimate Vee's annoyance with Kathy whom Sean pleaded with to allign with. Does anyone really believe that if Kathy comes begging Vee to save her butt next TC that she would do it? I don't, because it won't happen! I completely disagree, as I discuss below in my reply to JohnMc. The "Kathy wins IC" and "Vee wins IC" scenarios are VERY different. If Kathy wins the F4 IC, she has no incentive to switch her vote. It all comes down to the F3 IC for her. If she wins it, she wins the whole ball of wax, including the million. She's a competitor; she'll take her chances. Vee's situation is different. If she goes into the final 2 under the same scenario, she loses -- probably only Sean votes for her. So she needs to shake up the game, to get Kathy on her side, and to create discord among K and N/P. How to do this? Simple: offer to save Kathy. If Kathy loses the challenge with Paschal, Vee now has at least two votes on the jury (Sean and Kathy), maybe three (Zoe, tagging along with Kathy), and she's no worse off in the game logic. But, if Kathy wins the challenge with Paschal, then Vee is most likely a finalist no matter what happens in the F3 IC. >Second there is NO WAY Vee wins. 0% chance of
>it happening. All you have to look at is
>the editing to know that she hasn't got a chance.
> If she wins the masses will go Vee who?
> It would kill the season if not the series,
>and IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. ICB, I don't know if you remember, but that's exactly what people said about Tina's victory. I know your memory tells you that Tina was a major player, as you've posted below, but she wasn't. In fact, one theory (which I have advanced many times in other places) is that UTR Tina's victory in S2 is a big part of why S3 fared so poorly in the ratings. But then an appealing winner like Ethan helped S4 do better. >Plus do you honestly think Vee would side with Kathy next
>TC after Kathy refused to side with her and Sean
>the previous one? I don't... but I bet you
>figured that one out I do, and see above for why. >At best she make the final 2 to loose to ANY
>of the others, but at this point I find that hard to buy. It's differences of opinion that make for horse races!
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alleyb 98 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-17-02, 10:46 PM (EST)
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21. "In defense of Tina" |
I don't know where everyone gets the idea that Tina was the "hidden" winner. Her strategic moves were far more highlighted over the course of the show than Ethan and KimJ, IMO. In Ep. 4 Tina was shown trying to sway Colby and Mitchell against Jerri, and she capped off the episode with "In the spirit of the Olympics, let the games begin", voting off Mitchell and gaining control of the game (alongside Colby and Keith). At the merge she gave up the IC to Keith (even though she should have done so more willingly). Then through the rest of the game she kept Keith in tow while staying closely aligned with Colby. Her biggest asset was being able to talk openly with Roger/Elizabeth about upcoming TCs, so that they held no animosity towards her. And by doing so, she kept them in line to keep a coup from happening with Amber or Jerri.Sure, her real alliance with Colby was hidden so we couldn't see her overall plan until the end, but I certainly wouldn't classify her strategy as UTR. If she had remained UTR, she would never have been able to turn the tide on Jerri. I think the only reason this keeps coming up is that everyone remembers how invisible Tina was in the first couple of Eps. and fueled by MB's statement suggesting something being hidden in the first Ep. And Ethan? He was the true UTR winner. He hooked into his alliance, played nice, and ducked his head in the sand without making any remarkable strategic moves of his own.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-17-02, 02:51 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Vecepia - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" |
Youzah! Vee's page almost slipped onto the 2nd page....One thing I've observed about Survivor is that when spirituality and prayer are shown, there is usually a payoff. Kelly's meditation and she gets to F2. Tina was showed leading prayer quite a bit in S2. Can't think of any in S3. When Sean was the target we saw Vee/Sean pray together and he didn't get booted. We saw the New Maraamu little tribe pray together and win RC and IC. Vee has been surrounded in prayer this series (as has Neleh leading the whole group in prayer and not just select individuals....hmmmmmm....hadn't even looked at that til now).... Where was I going with this (besides trying to stop it from moving to 2nd page)....but Vee has been portrayed in a positive light for the mostpart. We've seen her tied to Sean through the whole series, but her editing has been positive. She's been called a strategist by others (which we really haven't seen yet)...so I don't think she goes next, but maybe the editting leads us to the Final Episode where Vee shines on her own? MB has made comments about the UTR person winning someday in the past, and Vee may be the one smart enough to pull it off...
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sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-17-02, 03:00 PM (EST)
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3. "Vee" |
Vee has been voting her heart (while keeping, IMO, a free agent status), asking for no drama and praising Jesus the entire time. She has worked very hard to stay UTR and to keep herself on middle ground when she is forced onto the screen.
I can see that the Rotu 4 may not be happy with her, but I just don't think that they will feel betrayed by her. I'm not sayingthat they wouldn't pick someone else over her in a final 2, I'm just saying that I think that we can't count her out just yet.
That girl is playing and playing hard. I'm pulling for Kathy to take the whole thing, but I can definitely visualize a few scenarios where Vee could take it home.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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05-17-02, 03:11 PM (EST)
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4. "Vee's voting booth comment, and strategy" |
Vee voted Neleh and said, loosely quoted "You're a nice girl, but you just started playing the game a little too late." My reaction to this is that only someone who has been playing the game for a long time would say that. Hints that Vee is far more conscious of what she's doing then it appears. Other hints are from way back right after the switch, when Sean and Rob talked about what Vee was clearly doing and they didn't trust her. (btw, this corraborates Sean's insistence that he and Vee aren't in a pact - they have NEVER been like P/N). Other hints from bootees point to Vee doing a specific strategy - they don't always approve of it, but they see her playing. I wish WE could see her playing more. I have a hard time accepting a winner where I have no idea how she did it. I do believe in the premise that the winner is edited so that we (viewers) can see he/she deserves it. IMO, we're not going to see a winner who will give all the credit to Jesus and not have seen any real clue of what she did to be there. So because of the editing, I just can't believe that Vee will possibly win it.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-17-02, 03:37 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Vee's voting booth comment, and strategy" |
I feel sooooooo alone....I must be the only out there who can totally see a Vee win easily....Tina and Ethan were both hidden nearly the entire series. Tina was portrayed as a backstabber for quite a while in the limited time we saw of her. Ethan wasn't seen as much of a strategist as just plain nice guy, and Richard we saw as pompous and didn't really see his strategies til the end.... I think each player accept for Pappy after last night have been edited to be potential winners. Kathy's story would make the best..from almost booted Ep 1 to winner, Neleh we see as the sweetpea with a dark side strategist and Vee we see as the UTR hide behind the scenes...In the first Survivor book, MB said an UTR player will eventually win Survivor.... Pappy had been edited as a potential winner, but I can't see him winning at all after the way he was edited last night. Neleh's editing shows how she is playing the game; Pappy's was to show he can be an ass... Vee is so under the radar that her spoiler page here almost made it to the 2nd page unnoticed 
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 05:01 PM (EST)
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10. "I've been a thinkin'" |
1. We discussed awhile back the possibility of Sean winning because MB chose to show the "African American can't win" comment that Sean made to Vee early on. Sorry, I forget the actual wording now, but that's not important. We speculated that maybe MB decided to use that out of thousands of hours of footage because Sean's comment is proven wrong.2. I agree that Vee's editing isn't completely unlike Tina and Ethans, she's just a little more UTR. 3. I don't think the Rotu 4 hates her. I don't think they were ever in a solid alliance. I think she has sat on the edge of alliances just enough that no one hates her. She could get the "lesser of two evils" votes in the end. 4. Was it Gina that commented on how smart Vee was playing the game? I believe so. I'm not giving up on Vee as the sole Survivor yet.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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05-17-02, 05:03 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Vee's voting booth comment, and strategy" |
No, no, no, no.... Tina was only hidden early, she was a big player as the game went on. In fact she wasnt even that hidden after episode 2 if you recall she was the "jerky"gate backpack searcher. She was definately a player by the middle of the show and the Jerri ousting. Granted she was overshaddowed by Colby and the LisLis-Rodger combo, but she was there active and important from E2 on. Ethan was practically shoved down our throat. He was the narrarator from the beginning, and was constantly being shown doing nothing just to remind us he was in the game. He was boring and nice and had he been booted he would likely have been edited like MamaKim or even Zoe, but he was the winner so we had to get to know him and like him. There are no inVEEsible parallel's to the past winners. At best she is the MamaKim to the winner, but the winner of S4... No way. -ICB
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Desert Trip 12 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-17-02, 08:26 PM (EST)
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14. "I see Vee in the Final 2" |
It wouldn't surprise me if her and Vee had already decided to vote out their strongest opponent (Sean) and take on N and P.If I were Kathy, I would have made that offer myself to Vee. Paschal is so weak and beat up, he wouldn't be much of a threat in any challenges (he gave up in the rc); Neleh isn't exactly strong in the competitions either. Sean would have the best chance of walking away with the remaining I/C's so pair up, ditch him and go against the two weakest. Right? By the way, didn't anyone else notice how thrilled Vee appeared when Sean was voted out and when walking back? Vee had full blown perma-grin!
Epiphany: Current Events, Science, Jokes, Art, UFO's & the Paranormal
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 03:20 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Vecepia - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" |
I cannot see the Rotu 4 voting for her, which means she would lose against all comers.They tried to get her to be their fifth vote, but they could not depend on her. If she would have been more solid, then they could have been obnoxious with the coconuts without causing their demise, because they would have had enough votes to carry the day. AyaK called it well when dubbing her the MamaKim, because if she wins the next 2 ICs, she'll pick the winner when she picks her partner in the final 2.  Rude snot fluent in Sarcastic...and those are my good points. 'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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05-17-02, 04:03 PM (EST)
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7. "Counterpoint" |
First off, let me say that Vee has to win immunity. Otherwise, she is the obvious boot choice.In F4, if she wins immunity, Kathy is the boot since P/N won't vote for each other and can't vote for Vee. Vee knows this, and it would be foolish for her to try to team up with Kathy when all she can get is a tie. If she doesn't win immunity, she is gone. She obviously voted along the same lines as Sean. It may not be the "pact" that P/N have, but at this point in the game it was enough. Plus, we saw in TC that Sean would have taken Kathy and Vee to F3, thus exposing her alliance. Since each day has an IC, there simply isn't enough time to realign. After 36+ days together, their opinions of each other is solid and won't be swayed like they have in the past. If she does somehow make F3, then she still has to win IC to make F2 because of the P/N pact. If she does win IC, she has to take Neleh to F2 to win. She can't beat Pappy because the jurors respect him too much. She can beat Neleh since, as a former Maraamuu, she may earn points for being the underdog. That's the only way I see her winning. Of course, in the Olympics we saw an underdog take the gold medal by having everything fall into place perfectly. It is unlikely, but still possible. Now my counterpoint to your posts: <<1. Because she actually has been on the same team as all of the other castaways, she has at least a 33% chance of winning "Fallen Comrades." >> Um, the only people that N/P/K didn't spend time with were Peter/Pat/Hunter. FC is supposed to have questions regarding tribespeople that they actually spent time with. The only fluke was the piercing question in S3. The answer was supposed to be Kelley, but since there was the "Lindsay loophole" they had to hand out additional prize money. Lindsay was a legitimate answer, but the people who wrote the questions had no intentions of having Lindsay as an answer, which is why Lex got the question wrong. If anyone has bonded with other tribemates it has been Kathy. <<2.... I believe that she and Kathy make a "new partnership" at TC -- she agrees to save Kathy now if Kathy agrees to save her in the F3.>> Kathy has no reason to partner w/Vee. See above comments regarding the F4 vote. <<Vee has been portrayed in a positive light for the mostpart....She's been called a strategist by others....>> She's been seen as flipflopping from everyone including Sean. He also didn't have positive things to say about Vee in the media interviews, so you can bet that the jurors have heard in their debriefing that Vee can't be trusted. Now, she's done a good job at being sly and distancing herself from drama, but she can't be trusted and doesn't deserve to win. <<I cannot see the Rotu 4 voting for her, which means she would lose against all comers. They tried to get her to be their fifth vote, but they could not depend on her.>> Agreed. No one can count on Vee, and no one has been able to since the swap.
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 07:53 PM (EST)
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12. "Disagree" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-17-02 AT 08:02 PM (EST)>First off, let me say that Vee has to win immunity.
> Otherwise, she is the obvious boot choice. Yeah, that's what I said: "We all agree on this, right? Vee is toast unless she wins immunity." >In F4, if she wins immunity, Kathy is the boot since
>P/N won't vote for each other and can't vote for
>Vee. Vee knows this, and it would be foolish
>for her to try to team up with Kathy when
>all she can get is a tie. WHY WOULD THIS BE FOOLISH? She doesn't have to worry about being voted out; she's got the II. JohnMc, Vee may be dumb, but she'd have to be a moron to not make a bid to shuffle the deck if she wins the II. Consider these two scenarios: 1. Vee votes for Kathy. Final three: Neleh, Paschal, Vee. If N/P win the F3 IC, Vee is gone. She only survives if she wins the II. 2. Vee votes along with Kathy to boot Paschal (why Paschal? Because he'd be easier to beat in a survival challenge than Neleh would), in return for Kathy's promise to not boot her in the F3. It's a tie. a. If Kathy wins the challenge and survives, then Vee is SIGNIFICANTLY better off. Now, she stays for sure if either Kathy or she win the F3 IC, and she may also survive if Neleh wins (Neleh may target Kathy instead). b. If Kathy loses the challenge, she's in the same boat that she was in 1 -- she only survives if she wins the II. So she's no worse off. In this situation, I think even Vee would make the right choice and try to deal with Kathy. >If she doesn't win immunity, she is gone.... We already discussed that. >If she does somehow make F3, then she still has to
>win IC to make F2 because of the P/N pact. I disagree; see my analysis above for case 2a.
>If she does win IC, she has to take Neleh to F2 to win.
> She can't beat Pappy because the jurors respect him
>too much. She can beat Neleh since, as a
>former Maraamuu, she may earn points for being the underdog.
> That's the only way I see her winning. I don't agree with this either. In S1, Rudy was an obvious winner if he made it to the end. In S3, Ethan was an obvious winner if he made it to the end. I don't think Pappy fits into that category. Presuming that Vee has enough brainpower to try to save Kathy in the F4, it can only work to her benefit. I think she'd get Sean and Kathy's votes and probably Zoe's vote against anyone, even Pappy.
>Of course, in the Olympics we saw an underdog take
>the gold medal by having everything fall into place perfectly.
> It is unlikely, but still possible. Well, like Sarah Hughes in the Olympics, it all comes down to one competition for Vee: the F4 IC. She MUST WIN. After that, it's kismet. >Now my counterpoint to your posts: What have all the prior comments been? ><<1. Because she actually has been on the same team as all of the other castaways, she has at least a 33% chance of winning "Fallen Comrades." >>
>
>Um, the only people that N/P/K didn't spend time with were
>Peter/Pat/Hunter. FC is supposed to have questions regarding
>tribespeople that they actually spent time with. Sorry, JohnMc, but this is simply not a correct description of FC. Any of the 12 booted survivors may be the answer to questions. And while you're right that the only people that N/P/K didn't spend time with were the first three bootees, they also only spent three days with Sarah and three days with Rob. On the other hand, Vee spent time with everyone, and the only person she only spent three days with was Peter. It's an edge, but it's hard to quantify it (although I tried). >The only fluke was the piercing question in S3. The "fluke" about that question was simply that a production assistant got the facts wrong. >If anyone has bonded with other tribemates it has been Kathy. Considering how this show is edited, I think it's very difficult to make a statement like that. Kathy has had one close bond that we are sure about: Gina. One thing we do know about Fallen Comrades: This challenge has come up three times now. The first time, Kelly W. and Susan tied (and then Kelly won the tiebreak), with Richard and Rudy well back. The second time, Colby edged Tina, with Keith well back. The third time, Mama Kim and Lex tied (but Mama Kim was awarded victory due to the production error), edging Ethan and clobbering Tom. The only conclusion is that all of the women have been competitive in the challenge to date, and some of the men have as well. I took that, plus Vee's perceived distance from some of her tribemates, plus her larger group of associations into account when I set the "odds" for the challenge. ><<2.... I believe that she and Kathy make a "new partnership" at TC -- she agrees to save Kathy now if Kathy agrees to save her in the F3.>>
>
>Kathy has no reason to partner w/Vee. See above comments
>regarding the F4 vote. As I already illustrated, your comments are not correct. If Vee wins the II, Kathy actually has no choice EXCEPT to partner with Vee. I don't see Kathy just giving up and getting booted meekly. Do you? ><<Vee has been portrayed in a positive light for the most part....She's been called a strategist by others....>>
>
>She's been seen as flipflopping from everyone including Sean.
>He also didn't have positive things to say about Vee in
>the media interviews, so you can bet that the jurors
>have heard in their debriefing that Vee can't be trusted.
> Now, she's done a good job at being sly
>and distancing herself from drama, but she can't be trusted
>and doesn't deserve to win. (emphasis mine) I've read similar comments in many posts, JohnMc, and I'm sorry about picking on you. But what does this mean? "She doesn't deserve to win." Why not? In my opinion, ANYONE who can survive the backbiting of the other contestants and stay in the tribe this long deserves to win. It isn't like anyone fell into the fire to keep her around. As far as Sean's comments ... I can imagine how angry he'd be if Vee is in the F2. He was the one who did all the negotiation to save them, but she was the beneficiary. And she wouldn't even be Sarah to his Rob during all the time they were together. ><<I cannot see the Rotu 4 voting for her, which means she would lose against all comers. They tried to get her to be their fifth vote, but they could not depend on her.>>
>
>Agreed. No one can count on Vee, and no one
>has been able to since the swap. Well, the Rotu 4 made no secret that she was going to be voted off after Sean. Will they be angrier at her, whom they never had any deals with, or Neleh and Pappy, whom they did and who then broke the deals? (Remember John's comment about how Neleh and Pappy wanted him to win -- and then they voted him out in that TC? How does John feel now? We just don't know.) ******************
JohnMc, don't let your emotions control your logic here. In your opinion, Vee may not deserve to win. You may be right. But it's logically possible that, in a particular scenario that starts with her winning the F4 IC, she DOES win. So let's focus on the logic and save whether or not she deserves to win for Fanatics or Bashers. Thanks.
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drawde236 317 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-17-02, 08:44 PM (EST)
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15. "Another point to add for Vee" |
I posted this on another thread, but it seems to be rather relavent here. The See-BS misdirection does state that last minute deals will be at least be offered. Since Neleh and Paschal have their "no voting for each other" clause, and neither of them seem cunning enough to strike a deal with Kathy if she wins the final immunity and has to chose between the two, the deal must be between Kathy and Vee. Whether or not it actually happens remains to be seen, but Kathy is smart enough to realize she has a better chance with Vee than either Paschal or Neleh.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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05-17-02, 09:15 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Disagree" |
Oh boy a debate >>First off, let me say that Vee has to win immunity.
>> Otherwise, she is the obvious boot choice.
>
>Yeah, that's what I said:
>
>"We all agree on this, right?
>Vee is toast unless she
>wins immunity." I think we all agree here. It makes little sense for Kathy to persuade Vee to join her if Kathy is immune. If Kathy is not though, she will definately make an attempt to stay. >>In F4, if she wins immunity, Kathy is the boot since
>>P/N won't vote for each other and can't vote for
>>Vee. Vee knows this, and it would be foolish
>>for her to try to team up with Kathy when
>>all she can get is a tie.
>
>WHY WOULD THIS BE FOOLISH?
>She doesn't have to worry
>about being voted out; she's
>got the II. Well the tie breaker is unknown to us. If it is unknown to them as well then the possibility that it is an all play elimination is not too far out of the realm of logic. Not to say that it is, and definately not to say that they would know it before it happened. Still the only way that is it "different" and "severe" as MB warned us up front is if it is NOT just the triva quiz that we have seen before. To assume it still is a trivia quiz or something like that involving only those voted for does not necessarily map up with what we have been told by the one source who would like to hype the change (although I think the hype was for the spoiling communities not becuase it actually happened in the game). >JohnMc, Vee may be dumb, but
>she'd have to be a
>moron to not make a
>bid to shuffle the deck
>if she wins the II.
> Consider these two scenarios:
>
>
>1. Vee votes for Kathy.
> Final three: Neleh,
>Paschal, Vee. If N/P
>win the F3 IC, Vee
>is gone. She only
>survives if she wins the
>II.
>
>2. Vee votes along with
>Kathy to boot Paschal (why
>Paschal? Because he'd be
>easier to beat in a
>survival challenge than Neleh would),
>in return for Kathy's promise
>to not boot her in
>the F3. It's a
>tie.
>
>a. If Kathy wins the challenge
>and survives, then Vee is
>SIGNIFICANTLY better off. Now,
>she stays for sure if
>either Kathy or she win
>the F3 IC, and she
>may also survive if Neleh
>wins (Neleh may target Kathy
>instead).
>
>b. If Kathy loses the
>challenge, she's in the same
>boat that she was in
>1 -- she only survives
>if she wins the II.
> So she's no worse
>off.
>
>In this situation, I think even
>Vee would make the right
>choice and try to deal
>with Kathy. I have no fault with this logic, but I do not believe it will be a simple trivia contest as before. Given the fact that MB's stated goal was to change the tie breaker rules to force the people to make a choice I beleive that either the jury will be used to decide it OR there will be an all-play draw the short straw event that picks the boot for them. Either case the choice would merit the severe hype. A trivia challenge would be nothing new... and nothing to merit the hype. If we knew what the tie breaker was I would feel a lot better about my arguement here though, as your logic is very well thought out (and likely better than any of the contestants would use) >>If she doesn't win immunity, she is gone....
>
>We already discussed that.
>
>>If she does somehow make F3, then she still has to
>>win IC to make F2 because of the P/N pact.
>
>I disagree; see my analysis above
>for case 2a. Agreed she doesn't have to win F2 to make the finals. In fact if whoever is left feels Kathy turned on them she gets a 100% shot at it. >>If she does win IC, she has to take Neleh to F2 to win.
>> She can't beat Pappy because the jurors respect him
>>too much. She can beat Neleh since, as a
>>former Maraamuu, she may earn points for being the underdog.
>> That's the only way I see her winning.
>
>I don't agree with this either.
> In S1, Rudy was
>an obvious winner if he
>made it to the end.
> In S3, Ethan was
>an obvious winner if he
>made it to the end.
> I don't think Pappy
>fits into that category.
>Presuming that Vee has enough
>brainpower to try to save
>Kathy in the F4, it
>can only work to her
>benefit. I think she'd
>get Sean and Kathy's votes
>and probably Zoe's vote against
>anyone, even Pappy. I have stated on the SOTS thread my reasons why I don't think Vee can win against anyone, and I think they are valid enough. I honestly believe that the Rotu-4 will vote for an original Rotu over Vee under any and all circumstances... if you don't we can agree to disagree on this point. >>Of course, in the Olympics we saw an underdog take
>>the gold medal by having everything fall into place perfectly.
>> It is unlikely, but still possible.
>
>Well, like Sarah Hughes in the
>Olympics, it all comes down
>to one competition for Vee:
>the F4 IC. She
>MUST WIN. After that,
>it's kismet. ahh why did you have to bring HER into this >>Now my counterpoint to your posts:
>
>What have all the prior comments
>been?
>
>><<1. Because she actually has been on the same team as all of the other castaways, she has at least a 33% chance of winning "Fallen Comrades." >>
>>
>>Um, the only people that N/P/K didn't spend time with were
>>Peter/Pat/Hunter. FC is supposed to have questions regarding
>>tribespeople that they actually spent time with.
>
>Sorry, JohnMc, but this is simply
>not a correct description of
>FC. Any of the
>12 booted survivors may be
>the answer to questions.
>And while you're right that
>the only people that N/P/K
>didn't spend time with were
>the first three bootees, they
>also only spent three days
>with Sarah and three days
>with Rob. On the
>other hand, Vee spent time
>with everyone, and the only
>person she only spent three
>days with was Peter.
>It's an edge, but it's
>hard to quantify it (although
>I tried). Agreed FC can include anyone, and has in the past included people that the contestants never knew if my memory serves me correctly. >>If anyone has bonded with other tribemates it has been Kathy.
>
>Considering how this show is edited,
>I think it's very difficult
>to make a statement like
>that. Kathy has had
>one close bond that we
>are sure about: Gina.
>
>One thing we do know about
>Fallen Comrades: This challenge has
>come up three times now.
> The first time, Kelly
>W. and Susan tied (and
>then Kelly won the tiebreak),
>with Richard and Rudy well
>back. The second time,
>Colby edged Tina, with Keith
>well back. The third
>time, Mama Kim and Lex
>tied (but Mama Kim was
>awarded victory due to the
>production error), edging Ethan and
>clobbering Tom. The only
>conclusion is that all of
>the women have been competitive
>in the challenge to date,
>and some of the men
>have as well.
>
>I took that, plus Vee's perceived
>distance from some of her
>tribemates, plus her larger group
>of associations into account when
>I set the "odds" for
>the challenge. Agreed it is very difficult based on the editing alone to determine who would be good at these types of challenges. No one for instance could believe that Colby would do well in anything involving brainpower... how they underestimated him. >><<2.... I believe that she and Kathy make a "new partnership" at TC -- she agrees to save Kathy now if Kathy agrees to save her in the F3.>>
>>
>>Kathy has no reason to partner w/Vee. See above comments
>>regarding the F4 vote.
>
>As I already illustrated, your comments
>are not correct. If
>Vee wins the II, Kathy
>actually has no choice EXCEPT
>to partner with Vee.
>I don't see Kathy just
>giving up and getting booted
>meekly. Do you? I agree she will try, but I think it will look suprisingly like last night where Sean begged Kathy and Kathy snubbed him/them. I would expect Vee would return the favor over understanding and being able to implement the strategy you have layed out here. >><<Vee has been portrayed in a positive light for the most part....She's been called a strategist by others....>>
>>
>>She's been seen as flipflopping from everyone including Sean.
>>He also didn't have positive things to say about Vee in
>>the media interviews, so you can bet that the jurors
>>have heard in their debriefing that Vee can't be trusted.
>> Now, she's done a good job at being sly
>>and distancing herself from drama, but she can't be trusted
>>and doesn't deserve to win. (emphasis mine)
>
>I've read similar comments in many
>posts, JohnMc, and I'm sorry
>about picking on you.
>But what does this mean?
> "She doesn't deserve to
>win." Why not?
>In my opinion, ANYONE who
>can survive the backbiting of
>the other contestants and stay
>in the tribe this long
>deserves to win. It
>isn't like anyone fell into
>the fire to keep her
>around. This is one of the reasons I'm repling here. I have strongly argued that Vee can't win, and I stand by that. The basis of my argument has nothing to do with whether she deserves to win though. I think anyone of those remaining probably deserve to win as much as anyone else. The basis of my statement is, she has not been presented in the editing as being someone who can or deserves to win to the general viewing audience. That is the key IMO, it has nothing to do with the reality of the situation and everything to do with how she has been presented to us over the course of the show. MB knew who won before the first show aired, and Vee has been invisible throughout. She is not being filmed as the winner, and therefore she will NOT be the winner. >As far as Sean's comments ...
>I can imagine how angry
>he'd be if Vee is
>in the F2. He
>was the one who did
>all the negotiation to save
>them, but she was the
>beneficiary. And she wouldn't
>even be Sarah to his
>Rob during all the time
>they were together. Agreed this does point to a possible Vee run to the MamaKim role. Something to ponder (but not for long ) >><<I cannot see the Rotu 4 voting for her, which means she would lose against all comers. They tried to get her to be their fifth vote, but they could not depend on her.>>
>>
>>Agreed. No one can count on Vee, and no one
>>has been able to since the swap.
>
>Well, the Rotu 4 made no
>secret that she was going
>to be voted off after
>Sean. Will they be
>angrier at her, whom they
>never had any deals with,
>or Neleh and Pappy, whom
>they did and who then
>broke the deals? (Remember
>John's comment about how Neleh
>and Pappy wanted him to
>win -- and then they
>voted him out in that
>TC? How does John
>feel now? We just
>don't know.) Actually according to Tammy, Vee was the 5th person in the alliance at one time, so if Tammy is to be believed Vee double-crossed them as well. Not to say that if they hold a grudge it wouldn't be more towards the people they (Rotu-4) felt they should have been able to trust (ie Neleh-Paschal), but a point that the only one with clean hands in regards to their Rotu-4 dealings would be Kathy. >******************
>JohnMc, don't let your emotions control
>your logic here. In
>your opinion, Vee may not
>deserve to win. You
>may be right. But
>it's logically possible that, in
>a particular scenario that starts
>with her winning the F4
>IC, she DOES win.
>So let's focus on the
>logic and save whether or
>not she deserves to win
>for Fanatics or Bashers.
>Thanks. I can't speak for JohnMc, but I can speak for me I could care less who wins this season. All the ones I have thought interesting are gone, and all I hope for now is an entertaining finish. -ICB
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 09:25 PM (EST)
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17. "A Vecepia-Neleh Jury Vote" |
ICB, here's how I see a Vecepia-Neleh jury vote for the title:Certain Votes: Neleh: Paschal, Robert, Tammy
Vee: Sean So Neleh starts out with a 3-1 lead. Kathy's vote will depend on the circumstances of her ouster. IF Vee offered to save her while the P/N alliance tried to boot her, I'd guess she'll vote for Vee. Zoe and Tammy were clearly fighting at the time they left the show. Zoe could easily vote against Neleh for no more reason that the fact that Tammy was supporting her. So ... Possible Votes: Neleh: Paschal, Robert, Tammy
Vee: Sean, Kathy, Zoe 3-3. How will John vote? I happen to think he'll vote for Neleh and give her the victory, but I've been fooled many times before!
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-17-02, 10:55 PM (EST)
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22. "my turn to chime in" |
>I think we all agree here.
> It makes little sense
>for Kathy to persuade
>Vee to join her if
>Kathy is immune.
....I mos debinidly do NOT agree with that! It makes no sense for Kathy to not attempt to join up with Vee even if she is immune. Here are the three scenarios that could happen if Kathy wins immunity:
1. Kathy sticks with P/N, votes out V RESULT: Kathy goes into the final three with an absolute must-win IC to stay in the game. 2. Kathy alligns with Vee, votes for N or P RESULT A: V beats N/P, K and V enter the final IC with a 66% chance of making it to the final 2....also, if they would go into that IC as the two run away favorites to win anyway since both N/P are far inferior competition in any sort of endurance challenge. Basically, if V wins the tie breaker it is almost a sure thing that K/V are the final two. So, that would also mean that in this scenario K would be going to the final two with a more desired/easier to beat opponent than either P/N. RESULT B: P/N beat V in the TC tiebreaker. Scenario then becomes exact duplicate of #1 (listed above).
As you can see Kathy has nothing to lose and everything to gain by alligning with Vee even if she wins the next IC. THe worst thing that can happen to her is she goes to the final three with P/N guranteed that they are gonna vote for her...which is the exact same thing that is gonna happen anyway if she sticks with P/N. And there is no way she would lose jury votes for making the move since even P/N have admitted openly that they will vote her out in the final three.
On the other side there is a huge possible pay off for alligning with Vee, that being that if Vee won the tiebreaker Kathy would essentially win the million dollars right then and there. Plus, she really doens't have to worry about Vee screwing her over cause of the four people left in the game my bet is that Vee looks at Kathy as the opponent she has the best chance of beating....after all, she might think that she has P/N's vote since they might blame Kathy for their ouster, plus she has Sean's vote so that is 3 right there. That's why I think it is perfectly okay to trust Vee at this point to follow through on any Final 2 promise she might make. The one major downside to these deals even happening is that they really won't have much time to strike the deal.....the next IC is tomorrow night, and the TC comes right after it. So, what are the chances V and K get together and have the type of detailed discussioon it would take to come up with all these scenarios? We already heard Kathy say how no one approached her after the last IC and that was when they had ALL DAY to say something....after this IC they will have a matter of minutes. My point is that I think that arrangements like this take time and are never entered into on a spur of the moment....so, unless K and V get together BEFORE the IC and pre-arrange this, I don't think a last minute plea by V is going to work.....Kathy usually makes the right decisions in this game, but she definitely likes to take her time before making those decisions.....we saw that last ep at the TC.
>
>Agreed FC can include anyone, and
>has in the past included
>people that the contestants never
>knew if my memory serves
>me correctly. ....that is simply not true. First, the FC has NEVER contained contestants that the competitors did not meet (the lindsey thing was a production error). And yes, the FC is not limited to jury members. But, where I think you guys are getting lost is that IMO the FC can ONLY include people that ALL the remaining survivors have spent time with. Keep in mind that this is the first time we have an FC competition with competitors from different tribes. IN S1, we had the tagi-4....S2 we had Tina, Colby and Keith...Africa we had Ethan, Lex, Tom and MamaKim. In Africa Lex and Tom got to meet Lindsey whereas Ethan and Tom got to meet Silas, but neither of those two were answers in the FC competition (Lindsey was unintentional). The point is that in all the previous survivors the answers have been people that EVERYONE had spent time with. That is why I am quite sure there will be no questions about Peter, Pat and Hunter. Everyone else is fair game.
>
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 11:37 PM (EST)
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25. "Oh, really?" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-17-02 AT 11:39 PM (EST)shakes, my computer is crashing, so I can't look up all of the old Fallen Comrades questions. But I still remember the 10th question from S1, given to the Tagi 4: List, in order, all of the members of Pagong voted off the island, beginning with the first one. Answer: B.B., Ramona, Joel (all pre-merge boots), Gretchen, Greg, Jenna, Gervase, Colleen. In S3 there were only 8 questions. I believe there were 2 about Frank, 2 intended to be about Kelly, 1 about Teresa, 1 about Brandon, 1 about Jessie, and 1 about Lindsey (but from the archery challenge, so they all had a chance to know it). So you'd be right about that one. I simply don't remember the other questions from S1 or S2...
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-17-02, 11:56 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Oh, really?" |
AyaK, my point being that even with the Pagong question in S1, no one was prejudiced because all of the Tagi-4 had the same EQUAL opportunity to find out the answer after the merge.That is the point, it would be openly prejudicial to have a question about a contestant who was only known by one or some of the remaining players. That is why there were no Silas/Lindsey questions in Africa and that is why there will be no Pat/Peter/hunter questions.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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05-18-02, 00:11 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: my turn to chime in" |
Hey shakes-How dare you question the only thing Ayak and I agree on > ....I mos debinidly do NOT agree with that! It makes
> no sense for Kathy to not attempt to join up with Vee
> even if she is immune. Here are the three scenarios
> that could happen if Kathy wins immunity: I of course was basing this on other discussions as well. I think I layed out better reasons than this blurb somewhere (at least I hope I did ) > 1. Kathy sticks with P/N, votes out V
>
> RESULT: Kathy goes into the final three with an absolute
> must-win IC to stay in the game. Agreed. This it the senario I am leaning towards right now, and if I'm Kathy I don't have much of a second thought that I can beat them at any IC. Pappy can barely walk anymore much less be much of a immunity threat. Neleh hasn't been close to winning an RC OR an IC that I can recall. If I'm Kathy I take that risk, as the only person who I would think she would fear loosing a competiton to would be Vee. In fact I think she happily removes the last of her competitors and starts figuring out who goes with her into the finals. > 2. Kathy alligns with Vee, votes for N or P
>
> RESULT A: V beats N/P, K and V enter the final IC with
> a 66% chance of making it to the final 2....also, if they
> would go into that IC as the two run away favorites to
> win anyway since both N/P are far inferior competition in
> any sort of endurance challenge. Basically, if V wins the
> tie breaker it is almost a sure thing that K/V are the
> final two. So, that would also mean that in this scenario
> K would be going to the final two with a more desired/
> easier to beat opponent than either P/N.
>
> RESULT B: P/N beat V in the TC tiebreaker. Scenario then
> becomes exact duplicate of #1 (listed above). I readily agree that the logic here is sound. I do have two problems though thinking it will play out this way. The first is the very thing you discuss concerning the timing of the IC and the fact that for this to happen some planning would be needed... and there is no time for that planning. The second issue I have is when is the last time there was a reality show contestant that actually thought something like this out AND was able to pull it off? Im thinking it the odd's are against it, although I had a hard time believing the "sheep" would take out the Rotu-4 earlier... so perhaps I'm not giving them enough credit here. As far as the FC questions, you may be right, but for some reason I thought there was a Micheal and/or a Kimmi question in the S2 FC and no one there had been a team member of either one of them. -ICB
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-18-02, 00:28 AM (EST)
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32. "not done with you yet ICB" |
Hey ICB, In your latest reply you stated this (below) in reference to my stating that it would be in Kathy's best interest to attempt to team up with Vee.... >I readily agree that the logic
>here is sound. I
>do have two problems though
>thinking it will play out
>this way. The first
>is the very thing you
>discuss concerning the timing of
>the IC and the fact
>that for this to happen
>some planning would be needed...
>and there is no time
>for that planning.
>The second issue I have
>is when is the last
>time there was a reality
>show contestant that actually thought
>something like this out AND
>was able to pull it
>off? Im thinking it
>the odd's are against it,
>although I had a hard
>time believing the "sheep" would
>take out the Rotu-4 earlier...
>so perhaps I'm not giving
>them enough credit here. ...okay, that's fine that you agree with my logic, but that wasn't the point that I was making. I wasn't bringing all this up to try and prove that it WOULD happen....I was just trying to point out a flaw in your statement that it would be stupid for Kathy to even WANT it to happen. Here is your original text that I was responding to.... >I think we all agree here.
> It makes little sense
>for Kathy to persuade
>Vee to join her if
>Kathy is immune.
So, which is it? At first you state that it makes very little sense for Kathy to persuade Vee, but then when I disagree and give out very good reasons why Kathy should allign with Vee you agree, but state that you original thought was that it was unlikely to happen.
I definitely agree (as I have stated elsewhere in this thresd) that the V/K scenario is unlikely, my only point was to counter the idea that it would be a bad move for K.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-17-02, 11:14 PM (EST)
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23. "gotta disagree here as well..." |
>she has absolutely nothing to
>lose and a lot to
>gain with voting with Vee
>regardless of immunity.
....there's one very real scenario you are ignoring, and this is why I am SURE that the only way Kathy will even consider voting with Vee is if one of them has immunity. First of all, in order for this to work it would have to be a deal that was struck BEFORE the fallen comrades IC/TC. The reason is simple....if K and V wait until IC is decided to start thinking about a deal then they are going to have to deal out in the open, rigth in front of P/N. Therefore, P/N would see what Kathy was up to and switch their votes from V to K...therefore, K would go from a guaranteed spot in the final 3 to a possible ouster at number 4 depending on the tie breaker.
This brings me to my next point. Even IF they were to make a deal like this during the day, what is to stop Vee from telling P/N about K's double dealing??? It would be a good move by Vee since it would most likely lead to P/N voting for K instead of V which would keep V out of the tie breaker and gurantee her that K's spot in the final 3. It would be a good risk to take for Vee......that brings me to Kathy....she's a smart player and has already voiced paranoia about making deals and then having the person run to P/N and tell them about it....so I'm sure that thought would go through her mind. Because of these points, I don't think Kathy will enter into any arrangement with Vee before the IC, and will obviously ONLY make a deal with her if one or the other wins the IC.....and for reasons I stated earlier, I don't think Kathy will make an on the spot deal with Vee if Kathy won the IC....therefore, I think my overall point is that the ONLY way I see kathy and Vee hooking up is if Vee wins immunity.
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-17-02, 11:46 PM (EST)
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26. "Agree w/ shakes" |
>Because of these points, I don't think Kathy will enter into
>any arrangement with Vee before the IC, and will obviously
>ONLY make a deal with her if one or the
>other wins the IC.....and for reasons I stated earlier, I
>don't think Kathy will make an on the spot deal
>with Vee if Kathy won the IC....therefore, I think my
>overall point is that the ONLY way I see kathy
>and Vee hooking up is if Vee wins immunity. shakes, I'm in complete agreement on all points. Kathy adds real risk to her victory march if she sides with Vee under any scenario EXCEPT the "Vee wins immunity" one, for exactly the reasons you mention. So, since I think there is a tie vote, and since I think the tie vote comes about because Kathy and Vee vote together, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Vee wins Fallen Comrades.
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Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-18-02, 01:06 AM (EST)
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34. "RE: gotta disagree here as well..." |
I think that there would be plenty of time for Kathy and Vee to make this pact before the IC. I would think that they would be expecting this challenge eventually and begin to prepare for it. I also wouldn't be surprised for the remaining to lay it out on the table with each other, and it would just not be shown. I'm sure if they were all sitting around the campfire and Kathy and Vee expressed their concerns to P/N before the TC, then P/N couldn't really be mad at them for joining up since they have made it obvious that they are in an alliance. I think P/N would see this as fair since it would be hypocritical of them to be bitter towards Kathy for hooking up with Vee. This would even things out and I think they would all agree to "let the cards fall where they may." Kathy is very good at talking and she has a really knack of making things seem non-threatening to people when discussing. This is why I think that there is plenty of opportunity to plan this before TC, and even for it to be out in the open.
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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05-18-02, 04:20 AM (EST)
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35. "gotta agree with Lancerdude..." |
Kathy IMHO has always set her sights on final two. We've seen her on numerous occasions that she is looking for a way to get herself to final two. Her reason for wanting to recruit Robert was because she wanted a partner to go to final two with instead of being outnumbered by P/N, S/V. It actually wasn't a good move to bring Robert to final two because he would have a guaranteed 3 votes with his Rotu3 buddies on the jury and possibly a betrayed P/N, S/V on the jury (the original agreement between the Underdog alliance was to oust all of Rotu4). I think she might actually try to reach final two again by voting with Vee to oust P/N. I can see a possible scenario like the one mentioned above by Lancerdude. Anyway I'm risking my Spoiler Island by picking Vee as the IC winner and having my final bootees as N,P,V,K-- I think we're two peas in a pod, Lancerdude . IMHO, I'm pretty sure that Vee would actually be one of the final two. I just can't shake off Gina's comment that she thinks she knows who the winner is among the final two. I can't imagine her saying that she knows who the winner is if it comes down to Paschal and Neleh or any other combination without Vee in it. I'm still not sure who Vee's partner in the final two is going to be. I'm really hoping that it's Kathy because she's the one I'm rooting for but I suppose Neleh and Pappy will work as well. Kathy has her 39 days spoiler, while Pappy and Nelly has the John's stirring things up comment. I'd give more weight to the Kathy spoiler than John's comment because I think John could still stir things up against Vee whom he may think is untrustworthy for jumping ship too many times.
Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor!
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danderoo 37 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-19-02, 01:55 PM (EST)
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45. "Mostly agree" |
>Because of these points, I don't think Kathy will
>enter into any arrangement with Vee before the IC,
>and will obviously ONLY make a deal with her if one
>or the other wins the IC.....and for reasons I
>stated earlier, I don't think Kathy will make an on
>the spot deal with Vee if Kathy won the IC....
>therefore, I think my overall point is that the
>ONLY way I see kathy and Vee hooking up is if Vee
>wins immunity.I'm a little trepidicious about disagreeing with Shakes. Not because of one of his famous flamings, but because I think he offers some of the best spoiling analysis in this forum. Most of this opinion is also on my voting thread, but I'm going to offer it here as well. I agree mostly with the above statement but because I'm going to assume that Kathy and Vee should be aware of the final challenge, I think that neither of them would want the other to be there. So I would add something to the end of Shakes' comment. "the ONLY way I see kathy and Vee hooking up is if Vee wins immunity..." and Vee either foolishly forgets or is unaware of the "Hand-on-the-idol" endurance-type challenge. If Vee wins the Fallen Comerades challenge she joins with N/P to vote K out because she wants to eliminate her only real competition in the last challenge. If anyone else wins FC (even if Pappy does transfer immunity to N) Kathy joins with them to vote V out. In the last challenge whoever remains of K or V will win. Neither will want to go against P in the F2, so N will be chosen to accompany them into the finals. In the F2 I think N will lose to either K or V. So I'm only considering one question -- will Vee win the FC challenge? If she does, and I'm saying she will, she goes all the way and wins it all. 2 more of my cents Dan
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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05-20-02, 05:18 PM (EST)
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49. "thx for the point/counterpoint" |
Ayak,Didn't get to see this until today (at work - what a great job!). Your explanations are all feasible, and make MUCH more sense now. I totally did NOT see this F4 fall into place like it did. I couldn't imagine someone being "eliminated" instead of being voted off. I could see V winning FC, and your point that she spent more time with anyone does make sense now. I forgot that she had her personal writings as a luxury item. (I think that ranks up there with the smartest items to bring since she could write down things she learned.) I get too into this show. I get emotionally attached to my favorite characters, and Vee is the 1 in 4 that I didn't want to see win. To my logic, Sean and Vee were next to go when it came down to F5, so Vee was logically the next to go. I think that that thought was ingrained deeply into my head since day 24 when the evil rotu alliance was brought down. So when it came down to day 37 (which for us is 5 or 6 weeks), I truly believed she had to go to fit my puzzle. Thanks for keeping me in check. Wish that this had taken place on Thursday so I could have read the posts. Perhaps the logic of the boards could have curbed my emotions. I must say that this has been the least predictable season, and the most fun to watch.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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05-17-02, 04:18 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Vecepia - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" |
<<Sean, would you have kept your word to Kathy if she had given you the immunity necklace?Sean: I definitely would have kept my word to Kathy. What I was banking on was if Veepia won the immunity she didn't make a pact with Kathy and that she would take me to the finals because her chances of winning a million with me were better than with her and Kathy. Pretty much anybody in the jury with me were going to win the million. $100,000 isn't that bad either.>> Sounds like he really wasn't in too deep with Vee. Looks like she still has no strategy.... -----------------------------------
Now let us never speak of S3 again.  
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Napalm in the Morning 50 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-17-02, 11:57 PM (EST)
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28. "VEE - a victim of editing." |
LAST EDITED ON 05-18-02 AT 11:53 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 05-18-02 AT 00:45 AM (EST) Let's look at Vee in a hypothetical* F2: VEE vs. KATHY
JOHN votes for KATHY since she was the one person outside Rotu4 he could at least "reason" with in conversation. Also, he probably assumes she spearheaded the vote against Zoe - the only one of Rotu4 that voted him out, and she's original Rotu vs. (during his time) the "lazy", vote-switching Vee.
ZOE votes KATHY. She tried to bond with Kathy, and seemed to respect her. IMHO she voted John so she could prove to Kathy she wasn't with Rotu4. Zoe probably believes Tammy was the leader behind getting her voted off. Plus, I can't find any compelling evidence whatsoever Zoe would have any reason to cast a jury vote for Vee.
TAMMY votes KATHY. In her last TC, Tammy voted for Vee, and I wouldn't have a good "reason" to vote Vee in F2.
GENERAL voted Sean twice and Vee once before he was booted, and made an effort (albeit weak) to align with Kathy in the end.
SEAN obviously votes for his sistah VEE (even though he will continue to deny any alliance between them)
N/P (with this hypothetical scenario) would vote Kathy for all the obvious reasons. VEE vs. N -or- P
ROTU4 would all vote for VEE in despite of N/P as alleged leaders in pagonging the Rotu4.
SEAN obviously votes for his sistah VEE (even though he will continue to deny any alliance between them)
KATHY (with this hypothetical scenario) vote N/P based on their "saving" her through the post merge, other interactions, and no compelling evidence she would choose Vee.
N -or- P (whichever wouldn't make F2) would obviously vote each other as the winner. Therefore, Vee obviously would stand a better chance with N/P. *However, if she doesn't win the next two IC's, Vee has no shot at F2 since N/P/K would all vote against her for the following reasons:
1.) If N/P win either of the next two IC's, they would vote off Vee over Kathy based on their knowledge of Vee trying to vote them off in Ep12 - confirmed by her comment at TC that she would "fall in line" with Sean in not voting for Kathy (thus targeting them).
2.) If KATHY wins the next IC, as much as she would love to split up N/P, she knows they will definitely both vote for VEE. Why would she take a chance at an unpredictable tie-breaker vote when she could assure herself of F3?
3.) Let's say the freaky scenario of the F4 tie vote comes true, and somehow N or P don't make it to F3. If Vee does not win IC, then will the IC winner not vote for VEE? If the way N/P and Kathy have voted up to this point, then the answer IMO is NO - they WOULD vote Vee off as the "least deserving" and "least honest" player. However, if they go against their conscious, and truly play the game, they may conclude Vee is a lesser threat in the F2. On the other hand, would either N or P AND Kathy know who Vee would vote for? By voting Vee off, N or P AND Kathy would assure themselves of F2. Finally, I will give heavy weight to the thought that Vee has not had a compelling story at all compared to the others. If she did win it all (or even make it to F2), IMHO many would be completely disappointed in such a mediocre player getting the GLORY OF JESUS!, and EPMB would go through the ringer with negative comments regarding the pathetic story arc of Vee. It would just be completely anti-climatic if VEE wins! Edited a second time to add: If SNEWSER is correct, S4 will indeed be a very anti-climatic. 
Edited the first time to remove ROBFATHER from the jury vote speculation in the VEE vs. KATHY scenario. DOH!!
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-18-02, 00:28 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: VEE - a victim of editing." |
It may just happen Napalm...You've already resurrected the Robfather since he's not even on the jury!
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annmurphyvt 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-18-02, 11:09 AM (EST)
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38. "I Humbly Bow to the Gods of SB But do you think....." |
I humbly bow to all the Gods of Survivor Blows and post very little as I cannot even come close to their greatness but do you think that MB has had to work hard on painting Neleh in a bad light so that it makes a Vee win a little easy to swallow for those who do not think she deserves it?
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-18-02, 10:46 AM (EST)
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36. "E! Friday night Survivor promo: I swear I saw Vee in the Jury!! " |
This is from a post by Tresnewhttp://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2859.shtml Quoting from Tresnew's post: ... I was watching the rerun of E! News this morning when they were talking about the competition for Sunday night (Survivor, X-Files, Practice)and when they got to Survivor, the said only 4 left but they showed footage of the Jury walking in and I swear I saw V walking in and sitting next to John. John was wearing Jeans (I know because I was wondering who the hunk was in Jeans (and it was not Rob))and there was a woman sitting next to him with her hair 'up'.. Unless it was Sean, but I am not too sure of that. The 'person in question' was wearing 'yellow'.. Anybody else see this?
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annmurphyvt 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-18-02, 03:47 PM (EST)
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40. "New Vid Caps this AM on Seebs" |
They had some new videocaps this am.. One showed Kathy really, really upset....I do not have the hardware to get it off there and on to here...Has anyone, Bungler?, seen these?
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IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-19-02, 03:44 AM (EST)
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41. "Vee Who? Wins?" |
I have no reason to doubt Snewser, but my question is why was Vee edited as she was? Who is rooting for Vee to win? Where is the redemption? What if Kim J. had won instead of Ethan? Vee may very well be a nice interesting human being, but I wouldn't know from her editing. Maybe there is something wrong with the whole gameshow concept of Survivor if people like Colby and Neleh lose due to vindictiveness. My 2 cents. Congrats Vee.
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annmurphyvt 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-19-02, 08:39 AM (EST)
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42. "Mark my words..watch for reverse racism tonite. a theory" |
I believe that we have been shown all the comments about race for a reason. I will go out on a limb here. If....(still holding out for Kathy) it comes down to, not a man and a women, but two people of different races, could the jury choose the Vee as not to appear racist? JAT (just a thought)
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annmurphyvt 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-19-02, 01:27 PM (EST)
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44. "I hope you are right...Sean" |
I hope you are right except remember Sean will have had a few days at Losers Lodge to spin the race angle. I am sure, despite the rules, he did NOT keep his mouth shut. He could play an angle that Vee deserves it because she is black and maybe enough will guilt vote her to the top...
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corcam 374 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-19-02, 03:38 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: I hope you are right...Sean" |
Sean and Vee have already used their race cards with Kathy and I see it coming up in tribal council
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Dreamkumo 14 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-20-02, 07:57 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Worst choice of the final 4" |
Sure Kathy played a great game, but if she played the best game, she would be cashing a million dollar check right now. Vee is, so that means she played better, no matter what you say, she did win. I liked Kathy too, but a lot of people said she was a great strategist, but that I never saw that. What did she do? She didnt side with Robert, she didnt side with Vee and Sean, but she did make a deal that screwed Pappy over but she got she got screwed too. She was a great player, just like John, and Tammy, and Zoe, and Pappy and Gina and Hunter....I really thought Vee would have needed the two immunities to get to the final two though. Never saw what happened coming. Say what you will about Vee's crappy editing, MB twisted the heck outta that finale.
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jonusean49 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-20-02, 08:42 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: I hope you are right...Sean" |
Shut up with that RACE #####....im sick and tired of people screaming reverse racism...if white people are somehow losing in this country...then who the hell is winning?
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Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-21-02, 03:52 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: RACISM" |
I really think that although race is not represented in everything, there are some times when it truly stands out.
Regardless of the fact that we'd rather Kathy won, the fact that Vee was lucky enough to win was a huge moment for people of color. She had to realize the impact of that. First Halle Berry, now this. And women, mind you. Survivor is sexually even right now, with the exception of Richard being gay which would make it more like 75% female.
This year has struck a blow for women of color.
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