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"Challenge Speculation"
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-02, 01:38 PM (EST)
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"Challenge Speculation"
Now that we're getting to crunch time, it makes sense to try and figure out what the challenges are going to give us a better idea of who will be favored in said challenges. Some of this has already been mentioned on other posts, so this can be considered housecleaning to pull it all together instead of having it scattered throughout.

We have 3 ICs left and, correct me if I'm wrong, just 1 RC (TDT backs me up on this one).

RC - Prize should be an SUV -- a Saturn VUE, to be precise. Prior seasons have given away a vehicle from the sponsor.

Potential challenges:
* Story challenge - would fit in with the title of the next episode, A Tale of Two Cities
* Combination challenge - gotta get double-duty out of the crap used in prior challenges
* Fallen Comrades - typically final 4 (final 3 in S1)
* Endurance challenge - final 3


I haven't been called a "snot" since...oh...yesterday!

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Challenge Speculation SurvivinDawg 05-10-02 1
   RE: Challenge Speculation ivoryElephant 05-10-02 2
       Endurance Challenges PagongRatEater 05-10-02 4
       RE: Challenge Speculation PepeLePew13 05-13-02 15
 RE: Challenge Speculation Cin 05-10-02 3
   RE: Challenge Speculation jkokoj 05-10-02 5
 RE: Challenge Speculation spartan 05-10-02 6
 RE: Challenge Speculation Spidey 05-10-02 7
 RE: Challenge Speculation SMGLover 05-10-02 8
 is the fallen comrades fair? cutie 05-11-02 9
   RE: is the fallen comrades fair? Teddy_Bear 05-11-02 10
       RE: is the fallen comrades fair? simone 05-12-02 13
           RE: is the fallen comrades fair? PepeLePew13 05-13-02 16
               RE: is the fallen comrades fair? MC_Hampster 05-13-02 22
 Could NELEH be RC WINNER or BOOT? Napalm in the Morning 05-11-02 11
 RE: Challenge Speculation munson 05-12-02 12
   RE: Challenge Speculation cutie 05-13-02 14
 NEW INFO! SurvivinDawg 05-13-02 17
   Similar Speculation from Yesterday.... IceCat 05-13-02 23
   RE: NEW INFO! PagongRatEater 05-14-02 29
 Who would win the Endurance Challen... steppingrazor42 05-13-02 18
   RE: Who would win the Endurance Cha... MeToo 05-13-02 19
       RE: Who would win the Endurance Cha... Bebo 05-13-02 20
           RE: Who would win the Endurance Cha... MeToo 05-13-02 24
               RE: Who would win the Endurance Cha... Dreamkumo 05-13-02 26
               RE: Who would win the Endurance Cha... Bebo 05-14-02 27
               RE: Who would win the Endurance Cha... samboohoo 05-14-02 28
   Women have the advantage PagongRatEater 05-13-02 21
       RE: Women have the advantage spartan 05-13-02 25

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-02, 01:52 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
In Survivor II the car went with a combination challenge. I'm not remembering S-3 quite so well regarding the car, but the Final Five Immunity Challenge was a combination challenge.

I think it will depend on who MB wants to see in the Finals... A physical combo challenge really favors Paschal, Sean and Kathy. The questions challenge might favor anyone at this point, but probably Neleh, Paschal and maybe Kathy (she's not as dumb as she's made out to be).

I'm leaning towards a combo challenge as of this moment. Subject to change, of course.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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05-10-02, 01:55 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
glad you started this thread dawg , I was thinking the same thing, especially about the combo challenge.

I think the combo challenge will defineately be in the next episode.

I also think Fallen comrades will be the Final IC

I think they used the balancing in the water IC as the endurance challenge and I don't see them using hands on the Immunity Idol two series in a row.

the question is, once kathy gets to the final 3 ;) can she win the fallen comrades?

Hail Kathy! the Sole survivor!

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05-10-02, 02:43 PM (EST)
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4. "Endurance Challenges"
"they used the balancing in the water IC as the endurance challenge and I don't see them using hands on the Immunity Idol two series in a row."

They had two endurance challenges last year, as well. I can't remember how they determined the final three in Australia, but last year you had the holding your arm up challenge and the holding the pole challenge. I don't see them doing the hands on the Idol thing again, but I do think that it will be endurance related.

Fallen comrades is a given. It will happen, probably in two weeks. And I think we are going to have a story challenge a la the Rudy Idunno challenge. We have gotten very little "local culture" type stuff and MB seems really big on that.


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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 07:25 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-02 AT 07:29 AM (EST)

>glad you started this thread dawg,

*psst!* It was Bebo who started this thread.


>I also think Fallen comrades will
>be the Final IC

As for the Fallen Comrades challenge -- it was used when there was 4 left in S1 (won by Kelly W.), 3 left in S2 (won by Colby) and 4 left in S3 (won by Kim J.). In both S1 and S3, the final 3 competition was the endurance hold-yer-hand-on-idol competition the day after the Fallen Comrades.

Since there's going to be a final four episode again in S4, I'm willing to bet we'll see the Fallen Comrades and then some sort of an endurance competition in the F4 and F3 ICs respectively.


>I think they used the balancing in the water IC as
>the endurance challenge

Are you thinking of S1 when Kelly outlasted Colleen? That was when there were 6 left, I believe.


>the question is, once kathy gets to the final 3 ;)
>can she win the fallen comrades?

Very good question... I think Kathy would have some real competition if she went up against Sean and Paschal in a final four Fallen Comrades competition -- Sean's a teacher so he might be good at remembering details about each other and Pappy's a judge so he's good at noticing things about people.

GO HABS!
"I'm the General and that's that."
Robert DeCanio, April 11/02

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Cin 843 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-02, 01:57 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
In Survivor 3 this next episode is when the Car was won. remember it was the cross word challange and Lex won and got to take the medicine to the kids at the hospital (in his new truck)

Wasn't the story challange earlier on though in S2 and S3? I kinda remember Rodger and Frank in those challanges.


Cin

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05-10-02, 02:46 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
So in S3 we had the word challenge. Could MB use another mind challenge in S4.

If so I think that Kathy and Paschal would be the likely winners.

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spartan 280 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-02, 07:17 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
Since so many are trying to recall, here are the final few challenges for previous Survivor's:

S3
EP 10 RC - Food auction
IC - African folklore (jeff's lame story / Rudy Idunno)

EP 11 RC - Family answers
IC - Throwing sticks at pots

EP 12 RC - Crossword (winner gets car)
IC - Second chance

EP 13 IC - Fallen Comrades
IC - Endurance


S2

EP 11 RC - Running attached to ropes
IC - Slingshots

EP 12 RC - Family answers
IC - Story Time

EP 13 RC - Second Chance (winner gets car)
IC - Memory

EP 14 IC - Fallen comrades


S1

EP 10 RC - Tightrope race
IC - Fire starting

EP 11 RC - Island knowledge
IC - Balancing competition

EP 12 RC - Coat body with mud (where the hell is Gina when you need her)
IC - Lame Story (Rudy's moment of glory)

EP 13 IC - Fallen comrades
IC - Hands on Idol (endurance)


Hope this helps. Maybe that guy with the charts of boot orders based on where you show up in the opening credits could do a new Easter Egg based on this.

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-02, 08:11 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
LAST EDITED ON 05-10-02 AT 08:14 PM (EST)

The new preview pics on SurvivorFever.com seem to indicate this is the second chance combo challenge. There is running and coconut smashing included for sure. Whether this is RC or IC is unclear. The preview wants us to think it is IC. But isn't the combo challenge usually RC? (*Edited to clarify that second chance has NOT always been RC, as I see from further inspection of the previous posts here that S.C. was IC in S3.)

There has not been a Jiffy's lame story (IC) or a food auction (RC).

And the lame story has always been IC. So if the combo challenge is the RC, it is likely the IC is the story (tale of two Cities?) But if they used the combo challenge as IC, we have nothing about the RC, expect that the winner gets a car. A car has never been given away after F5, so there can't be a food auction this week, unless one of the mystery items is the car???


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05-10-02, 09:03 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
Have they ever lied to us about what challenge corresponds to whatever Vo's there are? I dont recall it, but I think that the immunity IS the second chance. Maybe their won't be an auction this season, there are only 5 people left and I dont see how interesting it could get.. The purpose of the auction is to see who would give money to who and who would share with who right? ANyway, I dont think they would put the second chance challenge as a reward while saying the immunity is crucial.
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cutie 58 desperate attention whore postings
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05-11-02, 05:18 PM (EST)
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9. "is the fallen comrades fair?"
ok this is not spoiler, just want to ask this question, since i had not watched s1 and s2.

as we know s/v knows all the contestants, while k/p/n know 3 less than them.

kathy is not guaranteed f3 even if she teamed up with any pair next week. if the partner of the voted one wins the fallen comrades, then she will still lost(like tom last season). i hope she also consider this when she makes her decision next week.

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Teddy_Bear 1675 desperate attention whore postings
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05-11-02, 08:00 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: is the fallen comrades fair?"
>ok this is not spoiler, just
>want to ask this question,
>since i had not watched
>s1 and s2.

>as we know s/v knows all
>the contestants, while k/p/n know
>3 less than them.

I assume you must be referring to Peter, Patricia, and Hunter. From what I can recall from the previous 3 seasons; the only questions likely to be asked, would not involve those 3 contestants.

If either Sean or Vee are in the challenge, than this would be a Survivor first; as the other 1 or 2 challengers would obvously come from K/P/N.

In s1 the FC IC involved (I believe) Tagi's Rudy, Rich, Kelly W.--who got the IN, and Sue--who was booted.

In s2 the FC IC involved Ogakor's Colby--who won the IN, Tina, and Keith--who was boted; This took place after Kucha's Lis was booted in the previous episode.

In s3 the FC IC--which Burn-it screwed up--involved Boran's Ethan, Lex, Kim J.--who won the IN, and Tom--who was booted.

That is why having either or both S/V would be a Survivor first because Sean, Vee,: ex-Maraamu/new-Rotu with any one or two of Kathy, Paschal, Neleh: ex-Rotu/new-Maraamu, would be the first time the FC IC involved 2 separate tribes.
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simone 52 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-02, 10:04 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: is the fallen comrades fair?"
>>ok this is not spoiler, just
>>want to ask this question,
>>since i had not watched
>>s1 and s2.
>>as we know s/v knows all
>>the contestants, while k/p/n know
>>3 less than them.

>I assume you must be referring to Peter, Patricia, and Hunter. >From what I can recall from the previous 3 seasons; the only >questions likely to be asked, would not involve those 3 >contestants.

Actually, Sean and Vee might have a better chance in fallen comrades. Wasn't there a question in S3 about Lindsay, whom only Tom and Lex - not Ethan or MamaKim - knew? It seems unlikely that they would have a question about Peter, Pat, or Hunter, but not impossible. The question would be, though, how much did Sean and Vee bother to learn about Peter, Pat, or Hunter....

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 07:34 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: is the fallen comrades fair?"
Don't forget, too, that there was a question in S1 asking what was Sonja's last name -- the first bootee who was only around 3 days to get to know people from one tribe!

The definition of "fair" has never been in MB's vocabulary.

GO HABS!
"I'm the General and that's that."
Robert DeCanio, April 11/02

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MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 03:51 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: is the fallen comrades fair?"
The definition of "fair" has never been in MB's vocabulary.

As mentioned before though, the final 4 in Survivor 1 were all from the same tribe. There was nothing unfair about the question.

-MC

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Napalm in the Morning 50 desperate attention whore postings
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05-11-02, 08:46 PM (EST)
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11. "Could NELEH be RC WINNER or BOOT?"
BEBO SAYS: "We have 3 ICs left and, correct me if I'm wrong, just 1 RC (TDT backs me up on this one).

RC - Prize should be an SUV -- a Saturn VUE, to be precise. Prior seasons have given away a vehicle from the sponsor."

If a vehicle is the RC prize in Ep12, I think we may have a clue that NELEH may win.

We all know EPMB likes to use foreshadowing, and after reviewing Neleh's Ep11 dream confession video, she reveals the following:
1.) The nightmare of being the 5th person (post merge) voted off.
2.) Being upset because she finds out that a "Ferrari" is the RC prize after being booted.

What more blatant use of foreshadowing is there, but the use of a dream? If we assume it is foreshadowing, is it just revealing the vehicle as the prize, or the irony of Neleh winning the RC? OR, even MORE ironic based on the dream/nightmare, could she win RC AND get booted?

One other thing Neleh says about the dream is that (with the nightmare of being voted off) "PEOPLE broke their word to me." Notice she uses the plural word "people". Therefore, could she have "pact" with two or more? My guess is that would be with (1) Pappy (obviously) and (2) Kathy based on the following:

A.) In the Ep12 previews, Kathy admits she "voted with the majority" at Ep11 TC. While she obviously was with the majority in the 5-1 vote, I believe the "majority" she was referring to was N/P as I don't see any clues she talked over the vote with S/V. If anything, from her brief conversations with her son and the General, she would have approached S/V about voting off N/P. OR, maybe she did feel them out, and S/V indicated they were leaning towards the General. I doubt she would have done that, however, since S/V might then reveal to N/P that Kathy considered booting them, and use that against her. In fact, I believe Kathy voted with N/P to prove she was not considering anything against them (even though we know she is).

B.) Sean admitted at TC that Neleh was playing the game much more than her "girl next-door" looks reveal. Why would he draw this conclusion unless he believed or witnessed Neleh discussing votes/alliances with others (i.e. Kathy) besides Pappy who they all know she has a bond with?

IMO this, along with other CLUES indicate the N/P/K bond is a real threat to S/V right now, and the IC will be HUGE in determining the next boot.

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-02, 07:07 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
RC - Prize should be an SUV -- a Saturn VUE, to be precise. Prior seasons have given away a vehicle from the sponsor.

Potential challenges:
* Story challenge - would fit in with the title of the next episode, A Tale of Two Cities
* Combination challenge - gotta get double-duty out of the crap used in prior challenges
* Fallen Comrades - typically final 4 (final 3 in S1)
* Endurance challenge - final 3

IMO, you've nailed them all, Bebo.

In addition to the winning the SUV, I'll predict the winner of the RC also gets to spend a night away from camp, which hasn't happened yet in this series. S1 had Sean spending the night on the yacht with his dad, S2 gave us the Colby and Gang in the back of the Aztec <shiver>, S3 had Lex and a wasted Tom on safari.

The E12 preview might give us an indication of who wins RC. We see a night shot of the camp with Paschal, Neleh, Sean and Vee. Perhaps Kathy is away enjoying her reward?

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05-13-02, 06:03 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Challenge Speculation"
i have also thought about the possibility of kathy winning the rc due to her absense of the campfire meeting, but according to the clues, the campfire meeting should happen at the night b4 the TC. if kathy wins the rc, she would at most be absent from the 1st night, instead of the second.
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05-13-02, 08:09 AM (EST)
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17. "NEW INFO!"
After reading through some of the Bungler pic-post thresds, I have come to this conclusion:

Ep. 12 RC is going to be the combo challenge, probably for a car. Note in the pics that Kathy has a new gray sweater. Does this mean she wins?

Ep. 12 IC is probably the Lame Story challenge, finding keys to open stuff, etc.

Knowing this leads me to believe that the Ep.13 ICs will be Fallen Comrades and some sort of Balance/Endurance Challenge like in S's 1 and 3.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 05:35 PM (EST)
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23. "Similar Speculation from Yesterday..."
... at bottom of this post:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2801&forum=DCForumID2&omm=18

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05-14-02, 04:50 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: NEW INFO!"
Why does Kathy's sweater indicate an RC win? I am horrible at picking the RC winner, so I'd really like to know. It would be pretty stout if she won another challenge and then won the IC, too. She has definitely played a great game on all fronts. It will be interesting to see what happens.


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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 10:32 AM (EST)
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18. "Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
What type of speculation does everyone have about who would outlast who in a F3 endurance IC? I would be betting on Kathy or Vee....(if both of them make it to the F3)
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MeToo 158 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 02:19 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
Kathy!

I don't understand, and maybe somebody can help me, but exactly what has Vee done to indicate that she may be any kind of threat to anybody in ANY challenge??? The ONLY challenge that she won had as much to do with the rest aiming and hitting other targets before hers - she and Neleh took quite a number of shots before Vee hit enough of Neleh's to bury it. This is luck, folks, not skill, endurance, strength, smarts or even coordination. Maybe I've missed something, but I haven't seen Vee demonstrate competence at ANYTHING, let alone competitiveness. About the only thing she can do more/beter than anyone else is praise and thank Jesus - this would definitely be a new twist to IC if THIS particular skill came into play!

This said, she did manage to get a few votes that were not exactly explained and she has shown herself to be a traitor so she could be voted out next/soon due to that. But NOT because she's an immunity threat!

MeToo

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 02:50 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
I don't understand, and maybe somebody can help me, but exactly what has Vee done to indicate that she may be any kind of threat to anybody in ANY challenge???

last IC (slingshot) - won
previous IC (fire building) - 2nd to Robert
previous IC (stilt walking) - 2nd to Tammy

She's been a lot more serious competitor in the past three ICs than the others. That's why it's valid for people to consider her an IC threat. Her performance in the past three ICs is superior to the others still remaining in the game.

I haven't been called a "snot" since...oh...yesterday!

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

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MeToo 158 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 05:43 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
Bebo,

I still don't think the slingshot challenge was won by skill on Vee's part. She may have come second in the stilt challenge, but she wasn't all that much better than the rest. I missed the fire challenge and maybe that's why I don't see it. She didn't really contribute to many challenges along the way - even sat out some of the post-switch Rotu vs. Mu challenges.

By the way - Habs should tie it up tonight

MeToo

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05-13-02, 07:53 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
"I still don't think the slingshot challenge was won by skill on Vee's part"

How else could she have won, are you saying that she won just how Tammy won IN in the coconut chopping challenge, just because no one wanted to get her out. Well if you look at the people who competed, there was Robert who doesnt like Vee because it seems like she was decided that S/V shouldnt team up with T/R and that she flopped around alliances. Neleh gave Vee a look of death when she lossed, if Pascal had won she would have been cheering, I think Neleh doesnt like her that much. Pascal is teamed up with Neleh, if Neleh doesnt like Vee, maybe Pascal wouldnt be too fond of her either. That leaves Sean and Kathy, Sean who is her closest ally, and Kathy who seems to like her.

How could Vee have won a popularity contest based on the luck of everyone liking her, when she isnt very popular. Her slingshots skills were involved, or she would have lost.

And on how she isnt an IC threat, she performs well in every challenge except ones that involve water, because she probably cant swim. And nearly everyone that she was coming in second too, have been voted off. Now her competition is a 57 year old man who only does well in water challenges, Sean who is her best ally, Kathy who she has some good ground with, and Neleh who has a chance to win a challenge maybe, but doesnt have the determination of Kathy, Sean or Vee.

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

05-14-02, 08:34 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
Team challenge effort and individual challenge effort cannot be compared. Kathy was a total screw-up in a number of the team challenges, Sean didn't try when he was a Mu, and Pappy's main contribution to a team challenge was wearing a silly foam costume while he carried a flag.

Individual immunity is a whole new ballgame. As has been stated before, desperation plays a key -- if a person is on the ropes (Kathy, Robert for example), they tend to perform quite well.

And what were you saying about the Habs and last night? I didn't pay a whole lot of attention after we scored two in the first four minutes.

I haven't been called a "snot" since...oh...yesterday!

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings
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05-14-02, 09:28 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Who would win the Endurance Challenge?????"
MeToo, I just want to say that I totally agree with you when it comes to Vee being a "contender." Give me a break. She really hasn't done squat all along, and I just don't consider her a threat. Pappy is more of a threat than Vee.

Slingshot: More like lucky shot. Did Vee take everyone out? No, some people just got lucky shots, which enabled the other tikis to be covered up first.

Stilt Walking: Again luck. Luck of the draw. Had she gone up against Tammy in the first round, we wouldn't have to discuss this at all. The only praises involving Vee would be her praises to J.C.

Fire Building: I still don't give her anything here. For Pete's sake, they had those sparky things. Take those away and again it's a different story.

Kathy would take any endurance challenge. She's one determined woman. Pappy would probably win a mental challenge, and Sean would be a strong contender for any land type race. Neleh still doesn't really want to get dirty, but I still wouldn't count her completly out.

We haven't heard Sean say "Don't count me out" in a while. Maybe it's time we did.

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PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-02, 03:21 PM (EST)
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21. "Women have the advantage"
If you look at the last several endurance related challenges, it appears that women have the advantage - Kelly in S1, Theresa and Mama Kim in Africa, Tina in Australia (even though she gave it up to Keith). I would suggest Kathy as a heavy favorite in any endurance challange when you consider her Yoga background, her prior performances and what will likely be her desparate need to get immunity to make it to the final two.

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spartan 280 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

05-13-02, 07:13 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Women have the advantage"
It's all up to EPM as to who has the advantage. In S3, for example, he created an endurance challenge that was virtually impossible for either guy to win, simply because of the difference in physiological make up between men and women.

It's relatively easy to name a dozen endurance challenges where men would have an enormous advantage.

The makeup of the ICs is one of EPM's best tools, especially in the endgame, of influencing the outcome. Women have had the advantage in the past. If EPM believes it is in the best ineterests of the ratings to give them the advantage in the series, they will have it. But if he calculates that 1 extra viewer would tune in with a male win, watch for a "hold 50 pounds or bricks for as long as possible" challenge.

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