Not sure what you mean by within their voter bases. I would think that a contestant’s voter base always has expectations that the singer they support is the chosen one.

On the other hand, if you mean that looking at how the voting patterns have been throughout the season, Kris should be considered the favorite and Adam the underdog, I’d have to agree. Dial Idol, the only real predictive model we have access to, has consistently underrated Kris’ level of support level and consistently overrated Adam’s level of support. Couple that with the fact that Danny and Adam are such diametric opposites in terms of style that I can’t see many Danny voters switching up to vote for Danny. I’d say the choice for that particular bloc is Kris or not vote.

Other things in Kris’ favor: Adam is also polarizing; Kris isn’t. On a quality basis, they’re pretty much equal. Kris, however, trends to a more popular style than Adam.

That’s not to say that a Kris victory wouldn’t be touted as a huge upset. But it shouldn’t be considered such.