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"What if THE GENERAL wins IC again?"
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-02, 04:21 PM (EST)
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"What if THE GENERAL wins IC again?" |
Here's a little question for y'all to chew on: What if The General wins immunity again?I think we can safely say he wouldn't transfer it to anyone(!). Who would everyone then vote for? (Let me state now that I doubt the General will win again, but it will be interesting to speculate on the possibility. And it IS a possibility). "Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-02, 04:46 PM (EST)
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1. "Interesting scenario" |
I'm fighting the urge to use logic here, since it doesn't work in the game, but I keep coming back to Robert approaching Kathy.She's the only one not paired, so right now her only hope to make the final 2 is a win in the final IC. He can offer her the pair, so that she doubles her shot of getting into the final 2...and with Vee and Neleh not being strong challenge threats, her odds could be perceived even higher than that. I think that means N or P would go next, because of Sean's conversation with Vee about allying with T/R. Sean said that would guarantee himself final 4, but he was willing to throw that aside. Why? He must have a better deal in the making. Does he have a final 3 pact with Vee and Kathy? That would be a great situation for Sean, because it appears that both of them would pick him to go to the finals should he not win final IC. He certainly doesn't have a final three pact with Paschal, because Pappy wouldn't throw off Sweetpea, and Sean wouldn't throw off Vee. Since we're getting so much Neleh misdirection, I don't think she's going this week...which leads me back to the fufillment of John's statement about the demise of the Rotu 4, as the 4th one takes the Walk of Shame. The only other scenario I can think of would be voting out Kathy, and Robert taking her place as the swing vote. Possible. Fits in with the confessional of her talking about mental states, and she has been redeemed. But she seems to secure in the tribe for that to happen. MB always has a hidden alliance out there, and I think that is Kathy's -- to which pair is she truly aligned? Hmm, just keep coming back to the idea of Robert going, because Kathy's got a secret. fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery 'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-02, 04:58 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Interesting scenario" |
Bebo, I agree with you so often that I feel strange having to disagree with you, but alas I must:but I keep coming back to Robert approaching Kathy. She's the only one not paired, I would have to say that Kathy has a strong alliance with Paschal and probably Neleh, too. I base this on the fact that Kathy, unlike Sean and Tammy, was very reluctant to talk badly about Neleh after the RC, and they almost had to drag the words out of her. Same at TC... Kathy joked about getting Neleh dirty again and drawing a laugh, but this really made me think that, if anything, they're close enough that Kathy CAN joke like that. Robert's chances of staying would increase if he could get Kathy AND Paschal to go along (Neleh will follow Paschal) and vote out Vee and/or Sean. Then it's a very interesting Final Four (although I think the General still gets voted out). But IMHO Paschal is the key to the whole thing, not Kathy. So if Robert won immunity, I think Sean or Vee would be next to go. "Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-02, 05:14 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Interesting scenario" |
So if Robert won immunity, I think Sean or Vee would be next to go. Sweetie, we're not disagreeing, I just didn't word my argument well. If Robert knows which way Kathy is going to vote, then he can be brought in to guarantee a 4-2 vote over whichever pair she wants to target. Then they pick off the remaining member of the other pair, assuming that person doesn't win IC. So we'd have a final four of Robert, Kathy, and the pair. Once Robert knows where the swing vote stands, then he can move himself up to the final four...or possibly higher. I'm leaning toward Kathy's alliance being with P/N too, so you're right that Sean or Vee would take the walk. Probably Vee, since she has been a near-miss on the last two ICs, and is therefore a bigger risk to keep around than Sean. I don't think Paschal would need to be convinced, since this is the easiest way to avoid a 3-3 tie. Still think he won't win 2 ICs in a row, though. fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery 'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-02, 05:27 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Interesting scenario" |
I agree Dawg. I think the SV votes for Tammy and the TR votes for Vee last episode indicate SV think they can swing Kathy at the F5, and did not want to risk TRP teaming up to form a tie next episode should they vote off NelehSean, Vee, and Neleh are targets should Robert win immunity (SV in a likely 4-2 vote, maybe 3-3 tie with R/K teaming up with SV, or Neleh in a 4-2 or 3-3 vote) if Robert doesn't win immunity, i think the targets are the same, with Robert thrown in. I think Kathy and Paschal are safe this week unorderly list of scenarios: A) Robert wins immunity SV vote N KPNR vote S/V S/V goes 4-2 B) Robert wins immunity SVKR vote N PN vote S/V (or R if no immunity) N goes 4-2 C) Robert wins immunity SVK/R vote N PNK/R vote S/V N or S/V go in tie-break D) Robert does not win immunity KPNSV vote R R votes S/V/N R goes 5-1 E) Robert does not win immunity KSV vote N/R PNR vote S/V N/R or S/V go in tie-break reasoning- R may convince PN to vote of S/V, but K is either out of the loop, or wants to stick with the original plan due to the apparent misdirection, i think we can throw out a Neleh boot though unless its some double misdirection, though i think that's unlikely. which means to me that R/S/V are the targets this week, and if R wins immunity, scenario A is the one I think wold play out. I think Kathy is shielded, and can't see Paschal going unless Neleh has immunity (and even then, i think they'd vote R/S/V off over P)
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-03-02, 06:28 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Interesting scenario" |
I think Kathy is the key now, but for some reason, maybe the hand-on-the-thigh thing, or maybe because I think they're the two craftiest players, I think she is secretly allied with Sean. This is a smarter play than N/P because if Kathy were final two, she might lose against either N or P. If she were final two with S/V, she'd beat either one of them. V will never win if she makes final two. The others would pick Kathy in a second, and Sean less enthusiastically, over her. She is even more of a MamaKim final two than Neleh would be.Then I keep thinking of the "brunette male and brunette female" F2 report from Tahiti Presse, or however it's spelled. The only real "brunettes" besides Paschal are S/V. This wouldn't be a very exciting climax, though, so I hope it's not true. I also don't think a N/P final two would be much fun, so I'm really hoping for the K/S final two.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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05-03-02, 04:48 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: What if THE GENERAL wins IC again?" |
If the General wins again, then I suggest that FATE will take over. S1: colleen was the 11th to go S2: Amber S3: Kim Powers S4: Neleh????? I suspect there will be a combination challenge such as the one Colby and Lex won. This could come within the next two episodes. I think the Final 3 IC will be Fallen comrades. ttp://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_files/3c0001634c222dd5.gif
"I know I don't know you, and you're probably not what you seem, but I sure would like to find out so why don't you climb down of that TV screen" Gina Crews, the Sole Survivor!
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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05-03-02, 06:38 PM (EST)
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9. "Then Kathy is in the driver's seat" |
I dare say that Kathy does become the swing vote at F5. She can go with N/P or S/V and send the tide going whichever way works best for her. I say that V goes because of Paschal's ties to everyone except her. But Kathy's gonna have a big say-so because she is the swing vote in the groups of two.
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Cosmogirl 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-03-02, 07:13 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Then Kathy is in the driver's seat" |
I was starting to formulate ideas about Kathy and Robert, and then, lo and behold, I hapened upon the right thread! As the two "seemingly" un-paired players, a Kathy-Robert pairing could serve Robert very well. It MIGHT diminish his chances of going next week (although, maybe only slightly). I keep thinking of the shots of Kathy, Robert and Tammy under the waterfall. At that point they may have been trying to save Tammy's rump, but a long-term outcome may have been a pairing of Kathy and the General.That being said, I agree with the others on this board who think there is some sort of hidden "understanding", if not an alliance, between Kathy and Sean. They have been seen together discussing strategy more than once. If Robert is able to jump on that bandwagon, he is protected under the umbrella of S/V/K this week. Its all speculation, but both Kathy and Robert is going to be looking for ways to stay in the game. And while she may be safe for the moment, Kathy has learned to saved her own butt on more than one occasion, and she could take this opportunity to break up one of the two obvious pairings that she will face in the near future. That would at least give her a fighting chance if she makes final three. IMO, I don't think anyone would want to go up against Pappy in the final 2, because not only is he well liked, but he has also played the game really well, and that will earn him respect votes from the jury. Which finally leads to my point that...if Robert can convince Kathy to join with him, and she in turn takes S/V along with them, that could possibly lead to a Paschal vote next week. Totally nuts?
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-04-02, 11:25 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: What if THE GENERAL wins IC again?" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-04-02 AT 11:27 AM (EST)First, this was NOT the first ever nighttime challenge: In Survivor: Australia, the locks-and-chains IC was at night. In that one, Keith dropped a lock and Colby won. Rodger got the boot at the subsequent TC. Da General's immunity wasn't played up by MB because it would be a dead giveaway that Tammy was getting waxed. Also, the Robert IC win was definitely a surprise to the spoiling AND non-spoiling audience, so MB hid it for that reason, also. "Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Tylogulator 6 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-04-02, 05:02 PM (EST)
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15. "Dishonourable Discharge for The General" |
I really don't think The General has a prayer of winning immunity again...He hasn't done anything remotely interesting except stub his toe for the whole of the show and it's definitely time for him to go...I would like to see him win, though, to stir the hornet's nest among the 'Tight 5', as I call them.... But past Survivor's prove that the losing alliance has never made it past the Final 5 (with the exception of Elisabeth)and I'm sure this one will be no exception But what I'm really looking forward to is the final 5 episode, where I have a sneaky feeling that this game is being portrayed at face value leaving MB's red herring's of the past to confuse us. I don't see a S/K alliance happening at all, why would she get rid of a final 3 alliance with p/n when she knows for sure they're trustworthy and that she can beat them in the ususual final 3 endurance IC. To ally with s/v wouldn't be wise... sean is physically strong and v has done well lately in IC's. Anywho, if I'm right (which isn't often) look for the General to get mutinied this week and s/v (most likely sean) to go in the final 5 episode.. Later y'all Go Habs!!
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BMH 845 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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05-04-02, 07:50 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Dishonourable Discharge for The General" |
I agree somewhat with u..Tylogulator..I dont think Robert has the slighest chance in winning the immunity challenge..bc now we kno the challenge has to do with slingshots because of the preview caps and if it is like previous slingshot type challenges..the survivors have to aim and knock out each others targets..and it makes sense that the alliance of P/N/S/K/V..would aim for Roberts targets first..so he has no chance I dont agree with the fact that u think K will stay with P/N at the final five..it seems to me unless Kathy is a complete idiot...she has a much better shot at winning survior if she aligns herself with S/V..bc she is more likely to get votes from the jury..if she can possibly win the final immunity challenge.
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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-05-02, 01:42 PM (EST)
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18. "Kathy GOES" |
I am glad that you proposed this question but it is something that i have been thinking about myself. Kathy- the only person without a solid alliance. She would NOT try to scheme and lie to people, but i do think that she would inquire to ask people who they were voting for. When told SEAN (which is who i think they would tell her) i think she might believe it and just vote that way, not knowing that all of the rest of the votes would go against her. I think that the others would just start talking and just see it as the logical choice. Sean and Vee and Neleh and Paschal would talk and say that they didnt want eachother voted off. Then they would look at the only other choice, KATHY.
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Ahtumbreez 10456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-05-02, 06:51 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Kathy GOES" |
I think P/N and Kathy has a stronger bond than is thought. Remember even though P/N thought alot of Gina they still chose to keep Kathy. Darn it! I think if Robert wins IC then Sean will go. I think Kathy feels she has a good chance with P/N during the final IC and may do a Colby.
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Tylogulator 6 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-05-02, 11:20 PM (EST)
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21. "Rotu 4's Influence on The Jury" |
The main reason I believe that Kathy will stick with p/n is because she is probably using common sense to assess the jury.. Kathy strikes me as a very down to earth logical person and for that reason she (like me) would be led to believe that the jury, which will no doubedtly be comprised of the 'Rotu 4', would choose her over P or N.Most people on the jury aren't going to want to vote for P or N (they haven't played the game particularly wisely...they've shot the breeze and only made one smart strategy move, which happened to pay off HUGE) Kathy on the other hand has been a wild-card the whole game, won immunity when she needed it and the Rotu members on the jury (of which there will be at least 5) will notice her evolution from a clueless real -estate broker into a shrewd, yet moral Survivor player. Thus, for these reasons I am sure the Jury would pick K over p/n, and also s/v. All K has to do is make it to the final 2 and she's got the mil. P and N are a lot like Kim J's...no real contribution to the game...boring players who kind of got lucky and just stuck...and nobody wants another Tina Wesson to win Survivor...her winning almost turned me off of the game completely...too bad Tammy got the boot... Now the only question, is, can Kathy she make the final 2 or will that old hound dog pascal pick up her trail? habs rule!!
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-05-02, 11:14 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: What if THE GENERAL wins IC again?" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-05-02 AT 11:15 PM (EST)There is a vidcap of Vee holding a slingshot in this thread: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2764.shtml I posted there, that the IC might be a slingshot challenge, like the one Colby and Tom won in S2 & S3, respectively. I think Robert might be a longshot at winning this challenge, because the other players will completely gang up on him and take him out immediately, if he is indeed the choice to go this week. What could be interesting is determining who might have a good aim. I think Sean would be Robert's principal opponent, and at this point, I would not put anything past Kathy. What do you all think?
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JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-06-02, 00:29 AM (EST)
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22. "I think the general could do it" |
Unlike you guys, I think the General could pull out a miracle and win another immunity. He knows his a$$ is on the line, so he's going to try harder than everyone else. He's just going to want it more. Remember when Nick put his A game on and beat Colby at the tug of war challenge? Kathy won the first immunity challenge of the merge when she thought she was a target. There are many more examples but I'm too tired to mention them.Anyway, it looks like the IC might be a slingshot challenge. Not to be sexist, but if this is the IC, then I think Robert has a huge advantage over the women and Paschal. Really his only competition is Sean, but I don't think Sean will try as hard. If you look in the past survivors, the big guys have won these type of competitions (Colby S2 and Tom S3). I think the odds are in Roberts favor and he will win. If this happens then Vecepia is sure to go. As we already have seen last episode, Robert is more than willing to vote for her. He and Tammy already approached her about forming an alliance and she said she wasn't ready, so he's not going to try that again. Vecepia isn't really close to anyone other than Sean. She's kind of an outsider. Paschal surely wouldn't vote for Neleh and vice versa, and I don't think Paschal would vote for Sean after their reward challenge experience together. I don't think he would care about voting for Vecepia, have you ever even see the 2 of them talking together? If you think about it, have you seen Vecepia talking to anyone other than Sean? I actually think that maybe Vecepia is going to be the princess next episode (not Neleh) who is targeted. This could drastically change things for Robert. Sean would stick with Vecepia of course, and after she is voted off Sean would now be the #1 outsider. I think he would be next to go. Who knows, then with Sean gone, Robert could go on a major immunity streak. I mean he's the biggest and strongest guy left. I do remember the spoiler I provided with John slipping up about the Rotu 4 demise. John said "That was the beginning of our demise. So it is hard to believe that Robert would make it any farther but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
Richard Hatch/Tina Wesson/Ethan Zohn/Kathy O'Brien "There's some milk in the fridge that's about to go bad...and there it goes."--Bobby Hill --"I will cut the head off of whoever it is that did this. I'm gonna take them out. I'm gonna slit their throat."
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-06-02, 11:04 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: I think the general could do it" |
Jeff, even though I agree with you, on how we always seem to see, that when a player wants that IN really badly they usually get it. You also have to take into consideration, as I said before, that it is hard for a player to win the challenge, if everyone around you is aiming at you to fail.That was my question, how badly will the others really want Rob out of the game. You mention Sean. Sean really does have an interest, because he does not want the others to vote him off or Vecepia out, Sean at this point is playing for two people, just not one, his plan is to go to the end with Vee. Now, how badly do Kathy, Neleh and Paschal want Robert out. My guess is that they would like to delay trouble in the camp by at least three more days and then see what happens.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-06-02, 08:55 AM (EST)
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23. "Kathy and her hand on Sean's thigh" |
I've already taped over this episode, so I can't check it for myself, but did Kathy promise Sean that she would never vote for him (a la the same promise she made to Rob)? Or was it just a deal for that upcoming tribal council?The answer to this is huge. If she did make that pact, then Vee would be the only choice for a boot if Robert won IC. She has kept that promise once and gone off a number of times about honesty, so it would be hard to convince her otherwise. Better to target someone that she has not promised, and then use Robert the next round to vote off Sean 3-2 (when Kathy's vote is not needed). fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery 'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!
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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-06-02, 10:36 AM (EST)
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25. "Kathy not liked by the Rotu 4" |
I was wondering if anyone else caught this: On Friday's edition of ET Tammy was asked about Kathy, she got a little pissy and went on to say how much she bugged her and how she wanted to vote her off the first day. I don't have the exact quote and I am not sure that it's transcripted anywhere, but she definitely said all bad things. I swear in that statement she said "we", meaning the alliance. If that's true I think that changes alot of ideas about Kathy's chances to win. And would she be saying that much smack about her if she had spent alot of time at the loser lodge with her? Is this a small clue that Kathy makes it to the F2 but loses and gets SusanHawked in the process?? Maybe Robert also doesn't dig her and has no intention of seeking an allignment with her...maybe S/V would be his target. Or are Tammy's words a huge misdirection plotted out a long time ago? Either way I thought it was interesting, she didn't get asked about Kathy on the Early Show so it really caught my attention.
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survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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05-06-02, 04:37 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Kathy not liked by the Rotu 4" |
iN Tammy's radio talk here in Orlando, (Philips Phile 104.1 WTKS) Tammy says she is still in touch with Kathy.
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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-06-02, 05:04 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Kathy not liked by the Rotu 4" |
Thanks for the update....maybe her response was just more about her first impression of her. I'd be curious if the Rotu 4 will agree on who should win (assuming Robert doesn't make the F2), Kathy definitely has stragigized alot, but I don't think everything Sean has done can be counted out as luck. If he makes it to the final 2 I don't see him giving the best closing arguement though....but who knows. And to keep the thread subject going, I don't think Robert will win the IC again...just a feeling.
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